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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fillon moves to second favourite in the French race after new poll has him within a point of Le Pen

#presitrack 17/04MLP 22% (-1)EM 22% (=)FF 21% (+1)JLM 18% (+1)BH 8% (-1)@LesEchos @ORPI_France @radioclassique https://t.co/7ux5fUL7f6 pic.twitter.com/cvdDDGqL8g

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rcs1000

This is clearly some new definition of five that I was not previously aware of.

SECOND!

Sigh: original article said Five horse race, but my dad edited it to say Four. So the joke(s) are lost.

FF43

SECOND time to post this:

In the first round it's all about shoring up your core vote. In the second round about being the least objectionable to the most number of people. Macron is the odd one out because he doesn't have a core vote to shore up. However he does have distinct message - that France can progress by embracing the modern world. The three others all think the modern world is a problem. Macron has to hope that a quarter of French men and women agree sufficiently to vote for him. If they do, he will probably win by being less objectionable then the other one. I can't see Melenchon voters switching to Fillon or vice versa. It's doubtful Le Pen has detoxified her party enough to win half the votes.

kle4

Too close.

If Le Pen doesn't make it, now that'd be embarrassing after being most likely to get through to the final poll for so long.

rcs1000 said:

This is clearly some new definition of five that I was not previously aware of.

SECOND!

Sigh: original article said Five horse race, but my dad edited it to say Four. So the joke(s) are lost.

Parents always let you down.

Morris_Dancer

It's almost as close and exciting as the F1 title race.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, Uranus and Cronos probably think it's the sons who are out of order!

Cyan

Since the Opinionway poll, further polls published today by Ifop and Elabe have put Fillon 3-3.5% behind Le Pen and 3.5-4.5% behind Macron.

But wait...what's this? Sputnik News, who got their fingers rapped by France's polling commission for giving too much weight to a poll by Moscow-based Brand Analytics which showed Fillon in the lead, are doing it again! The BA poll to which they refer today has the candidates as follows:

Fillon 24.4%
Macron 22.3%
Mélenchon 19.9%
Le Pen 16.3%
Hamon 7.1%
Dupont-Aignan 1.7%

What a load of codswallop!

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, Uranus and Cronos probably think it's the sons who are out of order!

Given Cronos was the one who castrated his dad Uranus, IIRC, I don't know that he was in a position to be uppity about his sons overthrowing him in turn.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, according to some traditions, Cronos was released from the underworld by Zeus, to rule part of the Earth.

Anyway, I must be off.

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, according to some traditions, Cronos was released from the underworld by Zeus, to rule part of the Earth.

Anyway, I must be off.

I only take my ancient greek knowledge from the Age of Mythology game.

FrancisUrquhart

As far away from first as arsenal...

Theuniondivvie

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

TheWhiteRabbit

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

what are the changes?

Danny565

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

Hmph, that looks rather optimistic for Labour, surely.

Cyan

Cyan said:

Since the Opinionway poll, further polls published today by Ifop and Elabe have put Fillon 3-3.5% behind Le Pen and 3.5-4.5% behind Macron.

But wait...what's this? Sputnik News, who got their fingers rapped by France's polling commission for giving too much weight to a poll by Moscow-based Brand Analytics which showed Fillon in the lead, are doing it again! The BA poll to which they refer today has the candidates as follows:

Fillon 24.4%
Macron 22.3%
Mélenchon 19.9%
Le Pen 16.3%
Hamon 7.1%
Dupont-Aignan 1.7%

Which would leave 8.3% to be shared among Poutou, Arthaud, Asselineau, Lassalle, and Cheminade.

HYUFD

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

The SNP currently hold all the MPs in Glasgow and all the constituency MSPs and it voted Yes in 2014. At the Holyrood 2016 elections the Scottish Tories had by far their worst result in Glasgow, they have zero chance there

kle4

Danny565 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

Hmph, that looks rather optimistic for Labour, surely.

Well, predictions are so bad for them, at some point we'll cross over into being pessimistic about their chances.

Charles

rcs1000 said:

This is clearly some new definition of five that I was not previously aware of.

SECOND!

Sigh: original article said Five horse race, but my dad edited it to say Four. So the joke(s) are lost.

Presumably it's 5 gross and 4 net of your fees?

calum

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

what are the changes?

SNP + 11%
SLAB - 18%
SCON + 1%
Greens N/C

Danny565

kle4 said:

Danny565 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

Hmph, that looks rather optimistic for Labour, surely.

Well, predictions are so bad for them, at some point we'll cross over into being pessimistic about their chances.

Well, they only got 24% on the List in Glasgow for the Scottish Parliament last year, and things have only got worse for SLAB since then.

HYUFD

kle4 said:

Too close.

If Le Pen doesn't make it, now that'd be embarrassing after being most likely to get through to the final poll for so long.

rcs1000 said:

This is clearly some new definition of five that I was not previously aware of.

SECOND!

Sigh: original article said Five horse race, but my dad edited it to say Four. So the joke(s) are lost.

Parents always let you down.

She would still make the runoff on every poll released today (except the Russian Sputnik) and she is still polling higher in the first round than the FN have ever got before

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

I just had the unfortunate experience of trying to watch the new Top Gear again.

It's arguably WORSE than the unwatchable Chris Evans version.

TV viewers agree: it has ended on a series low viewership, and, I suspect, the lowest viewing figures in many many years. Top Gear is the Scottish Labour of great TV shows, discuss.

http://www.tellymix.co.uk/ratings/307951-ratings-line-duty-tops-viewing-figures-top-gear-sinks-series-low.html

1.6m. Desperate. Just desperate.

The Telegraph has been super positive about it saying it is better than clarkson etc...How much are the bbc paying them to write that load of fake news?

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

Clear transposition error by Gerry Braiden.

He meant to type Tories 44, SNP 7

calum

Danny565 said:

kle4 said:

Danny565 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

Hmph, that looks rather optimistic for Labour, surely.

Well, predictions are so bad for them, at some point we'll cross over into being pessimistic about their chances.

Well, they only got 24% on the List in Glasgow for the Scottish Parliament last year, and things have only got worse for SLAB since then.

2012 -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_City_Council_election,_2012#Election_result

MarkHopkins

SeanT said:

I just had the unfortunate experience of trying to watch the new Top Gear again.

It's arguably WORSE than the unwatchable Chris Evans version.

TV viewers agree: it has ended on a series low viewership, and, I suspect, the lowest viewing figures in many many years. Top Gear is the Scottish Labour of great TV shows, discuss.

http://www.tellymix.co.uk/ratings/307951-ratings-line-duty-tops-viewing-figures-top-gear-sinks-series-low.html

1.6m. Desperate. Just desperate.

Well at least they had more viewers than Naughty Cats Make You Laugh Out Loud.

Just.

FrancisUrquhart

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

Clear transposition error by Gerry Braiden.

He meant to type Tories 44, SNP 7

If that were the case, the mass spinning from graves would turn Glasgow into the Saudi Arabia of renewable energy.

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

Clear transposition error by Gerry Braiden.

He meant to type Tories 44, SNP 7

If that were the case, the mass spinning from graves would turn Glasgow into the Saudi Arabia of renewable energy.

I know someone who stood as a Tory candidate in Glasgow over a decade ago, he said when he was out campaigning he felt like Captain Oates after he decided to leave the camp.

Nigelb

rcs1000 said:

This is clearly some new definition of five that I was not previously aware of.

SECOND!

Sigh: original article said Five horse race, but my dad edited it to say Four. So the joke(s) are lost.

New definition of horse, too. They all look like Thunderbird puppets to me.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, please don't let it be Fillon or Le Pen.

MarkHopkins

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

Clear transposition error by Gerry Braiden.

He meant to type Tories 44, SNP 7

If that were the case, the mass spinning from graves would turn Glasgow into the Saudi Arabia of renewable energy.

I know someone who stood as a Tory candidate in Glasgow over a decade ago, he said when he was out campaigning he felt like Captain Oates after he decided to leave the camp.

I know the weather in Scotland can be rough, but it's not quite as bad as the Antarctic.

rural_voter

FrancisUrquhart said:

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

The BBC will I suggest have to grovel and re-hire Clarkson, May and Hammond (NB not the PM and Chancellor, that might be even worse than watching the current TG!!). The BBC has a history of grovelling after a suitable period has elapsed.

Too late now but Euro-federalist Clarkson should have been hired by the Remain campaign. His words were far more heartfelt and positive than most from that side of the argument even if they must have caused some of his Mail-reading fans to choke in horror

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html

FrancisUrquhart

rural_voter said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

The BBC will I suggest have to grovel and re-hire Clarkson, May and Hammond (NB not the PM and Chancellor, that might be even worse than watching the current TG!!). The BBC has a history of grovelling after a suitable period has elapsed.

Too late now but Euro-federalist Clarkson should have been hired by the Remain campaign. His words were far more heartfelt and positive than most from that side of the argument even if they must have caused some of his Mail-reading fans to choke in horror

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html

They can't afford him...And Amazon have him signed up for another two seasons and bbc wouldn't have let some of TGT air as some of the comments / ideas would never have passed the bbc pc ethics approval board.

TheScreamingEagles

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

Clear transposition error by Gerry Braiden.

He meant to type Tories 44, SNP 7

If that were the case, the mass spinning from graves would turn Glasgow into the Saudi Arabia of renewable energy.

I know someone who stood as a Tory candidate in Glasgow over a decade ago, he said when he was out campaigning he felt like Captain Oates after he decided to leave the camp.

I know the weather in Scotland can be rough, but it's not quite as bad as the Antarctic.

I think his observation was more to do with the loneliness than the weather.

IanB2

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

Clear transposition error by Gerry Braiden.

He meant to type Tories 44, SNP 7

If that were the case, the mass spinning from graves would turn Glasgow into the Saudi Arabia of renewable energy.

I know someone who stood as a Tory candidate in Glasgow over a decade ago, he said when he was out campaigning he felt like Captain Oates after he decided to leave the camp.

The unforgiving hostility of the local environment may not have been solely meteorological?

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarkHopkins said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

Clear transposition error by Gerry Braiden.

He meant to type Tories 44, SNP 7

If that were the case, the mass spinning from graves would turn Glasgow into the Saudi Arabia of renewable energy.

I know someone who stood as a Tory candidate in Glasgow over a decade ago, he said when he was out campaigning he felt like Captain Oates after he decided to leave the camp.

I know the weather in Scotland can be rough, but it's not quite as bad as the Antarctic.

I think his observation was more to do with the loneliness than the weather.

And the death of hope I'd imagine.

FrancisUrquhart

Talking of tv, silicon valley is back next week....

https://youtu.be/0a2lv4IwZFY

chestnut

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

The other 15?

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rural_voter said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

The BBC will I suggest have to grovel and re-hire Clarkson, May and Hammond (NB not the PM and Chancellor, that might be even worse than watching the current TG!!). The BBC has a history of grovelling after a suitable period has elapsed.

Too late now but Euro-federalist Clarkson should have been hired by the Remain campaign. His words were far more heartfelt and positive than most from that side of the argument even if they must have caused some of his Mail-reading fans to choke in horror

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html

They can't afford him...And Amazon have him signed up for another two seasons and bbc wouldn't have let some of TGT air as some of the comments / ideas would never have passed the bbc pc ethics approval board.

The Grand Tour is, however, not proving a huge success either (tho nothing like the disaster of post-Clarkson Top Gear).

I reckon (and I'm not the first to say this) Clarkson needed the BBC as something to kick against, and to rein him in when he went too far. Every great writer needs a fine editor. Ezra Pound made a great poet of T S Eliot. On the Grand Tour, Clarkson feels wholly unedited. Over-indulged. Flabby.

That's not good. Nonetheless The Grand Tour is 49 times more watchable than the necrophiliac weirdness of Top Gear. So Clarkson's show might survive, and thrive, if he learns to hire some punchy producer who is prepared to argue with *the talent*

I see no hope for Top Gear

If they had some decent editorial oversight, they'd have dropped celebrity brain crash after the first episode.

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rural_voter said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

The BBC will I suggest have to grovel and re-hire Clarkson, May and Hammond (NB not the PM and Chancellor, that might be even worse than watching the current TG!!). The BBC has a history of grovelling after a suitable period has elapsed.

Too late now but Euro-federalist Clarkson should have been hired by the Remain campaign. His words were far more heartfelt and positive than most from that side of the argument even if they must have caused some of his Mail-reading fans to choke in horror

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html

They can't afford him...And Amazon have him signed up for another two seasons and bbc wouldn't have let some of TGT air as some of the comments / ideas would never have passed the bbc pc ethics approval board.

The Grand Tour is, however, not proving a huge success either (tho nothing like the disaster of post-Clarkson Top Gear).

I reckon (and I'm not the first to say this) Clarkson needed the BBC as something to kick against, and to rein him in when he went too far. Every great writer needs a fine editor. Ezra Pound made a great poet of T S Eliot. On the Grand Tour, Clarkson feels wholly unedited. Over-indulged. Flabby.

That's not good. Nonetheless The Grand Tour is 49 times more watchable than the necrophiliac weirdness of Top Gear. So Clarkson's show might survive, and thrive, if he learns to hire some punchy producer who is prepared to argue with *the talent*

I see no hope for Top Gear

IMo TGT is better than the last season of clarkson top gear on bbc (which wasn't very good)...However the TGT is inconsistent...1/3 great episodes, 1/3 fine, 1/3 not good at all.

Essexit

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rural_voter said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

The BBC will I suggest have to grovel and re-hire Clarkson, May and Hammond (NB not the PM and Chancellor, that might be even worse than watching the current TG!!). The BBC has a history of grovelling after a suitable period has elapsed.

Too late now but Euro-federalist Clarkson should have been hired by the Remain campaign. His words were far more heartfelt and positive than most from that side of the argument even if they must have caused some of his Mail-reading fans to choke in horror

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html

They can't afford him...And Amazon have him signed up for another two seasons and bbc wouldn't have let some of TGT air as some of the comments / ideas would never have passed the bbc pc ethics approval board.

The Grand Tour is, however, not proving a huge success either (tho nothing like the disaster of post-Clarkson Top Gear).

I reckon (and I'm not the first to say this) Clarkson needed the BBC as something to kick against, and to rein him in when he went too far. Every great writer needs a fine editor. Ezra Pound made a great poet of T S Eliot. On the Grand Tour, Clarkson feels wholly unedited. Over-indulged. Flabby.

That's not good. Nonetheless The Grand Tour is 49 times more watchable than the necrophiliac weirdness of Top Gear. So Clarkson's show might survive, and thrive, if he learns to hire some punchy producer who is prepared to argue with *the talent*

I see no hope for Top Gear

'Punchy' producer

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rural_voter said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

The BBC will I suggest have to grovel and re-hire Clarkson, May and Hammond (NB not the PM and Chancellor, that might be even worse than watching the current TG!!). The BBC has a history of grovelling after a suitable period has elapsed.

Too late now but Euro-federalist Clarkson should have been hired by the Remain campaign. His words were far more heartfelt and positive than most from that side of the argument even if they must have caused some of his Mail-reading fans to choke in horror

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html

They can't afford him...And Amazon have him signed up for another two seasons and bbc wouldn't have let some of TGT air as some of the comments / ideas would never have passed the bbc pc ethics approval board.

The Grand Tour is, however, not proving a huge success either (tho nothing like the disaster of post-Clarkson Top Gear).

I reckon (and I'm not the first to say this) Clarkson needed the BBC as something to kick against, and to rein him in when he went too far. Every great writer needs a fine editor. Ezra Pound made a great poet of T S Eliot. On the Grand Tour, Clarkson feels wholly unedited. Over-indulged. Flabby.

That's not good. Nonetheless The Grand Tour is 49 times more watchable than the necrophiliac weirdness of Top Gear. So Clarkson's show might survive, and thrive, if he learns to hire some punchy producer who is prepared to argue with *the talent*

I see no hope for Top Gear

If they had some decent editorial oversight, they'd have dropped celebrity brain crash after the first episode.

That was horrific...It is like they asked Chris Evans to come up with a segment!

On the positive side...The h'american was good.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rural_voter said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

The BBC will I suggest have to grovel and re-hire Clarkson, May and Hammond (NB not the PM and Chancellor, that might be even worse than watching the current TG!!). The BBC has a history of grovelling after a suitable period has elapsed.

Too late now but Euro-federalist Clarkson should have been hired by the Remain campaign. His words were far more heartfelt and positive than most from that side of the argument even if they must have caused some of his Mail-reading fans to choke in horror

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html

They can't afford him...And Amazon have him signed up for another two seasons and bbc wouldn't have let some of TGT air as some of the comments / ideas would never have passed the bbc pc ethics approval board.

The Grand Tour is, however, not proving a huge success either (tho nothing like the disaster of post-Clarkson Top Gear).

I reckon (and I'm not the first to say this) Clarkson needed the BBC as something to kick against, and to rein him in when he went too far. Every great writer needs a fine editor. Ezra Pound made a great poet of T S Eliot. On the Grand Tour, Clarkson feels wholly unedited. Over-indulged. Flabby.

That's not good. Nonetheless The Grand Tour is 49 times more watchable than the necrophiliac weirdness of Top Gear. So Clarkson's show might survive, and thrive, if he learns to hire some punchy producer who is prepared to argue with *the talent*

I see no hope for Top Gear

If they had some decent editorial oversight, they'd have dropped celebrity brain crash after the first episode.

That was horrific...It is like they asked Chris Evans to come up with a segment!

On the positive side...The h'american was good.

Yeah.

Where Top Gear also struggles is that unlike The Grand Tour, it ain't filmed in 4k.

Watching things in 4k is an absolute treat.

BudG

This is an interesting one. Le Terrain picked up the Melenchon surge in their previous poll a week or two before all the other polls did.
Macron 24 (-0.5)
Melenchon 22 (+2.5)
Le Pen 21.5 (-2.5)
Fillon 17.5 (+2)

https://blog-scanresearch.leterrain.fr/2017/04/17/jl-melenchon-devance-de-peu-m-le-pen/

Theuniondivvie

chestnut said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Braiden's usually pretty clear eyed with no axe to grind, and lots of good contacts.

https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/854032447461261312

Only 7 Kippertories would surely be disappointing in the home of the Scottish ultra Yoon.

The other 15?

Not sure, but DKs, not voting and 'eff off, am no' saying' I'd guess.

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rural_voter said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

The BBC will I suggest have to grovel and re-hire Clarkson, May and Hammond (NB not the PM and Chancellor, that might be even worse than watching the current TG!!). The BBC has a history of grovelling after a suitable period has elapsed.

Too late now but Euro-federalist C

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html

They can't afford him...And Amazon have him signed up for another two seasons and bbc wouldn't have let some of TGT air as some of the comments / ideas would never have passed the bbc pc ethics approval board.

The Grand Tour is, however, not proving a huge success either (tho nothing like the disaster of post-Clarkson Top Gear).

I reckon (and I'm not the first to say this) Clarkson needed the BBC as something to kick against, and to rein him in when he went too far. Every great writer needs a fine editor. Ezra Pound made a great poet of T S Eliot. On the Grand Tour, Clarkson feels wholly unedited. Over-indulged. Flabby.

That's not good. Nonetheless The Grand Tour is 49 times more watchable than the necrophiliac weirdness of Top Gear. So Clarkson's show might survive, and thrive, if he learns to hire some punchy producer who is prepared to argue with *the talent*

I see no hope for Top Gear

If they had some decent editorial oversight, they'd have dropped celebrity brain crash after the first episode.

That was horrific...It is like they asked Chris Evans to come up with a segment!

On the positive side...The h'american was good.

The opening episode of TGT when they "attacked" some special forces basein Jodan was, to my mind, one of the funniest things I've ever seen on TV. They knew it was overly scripted, they told us it was overly scripted, they *played* with the fact it was overly scripted and it was very very funny (to me). It was meta-meta-meta amusing

I thought then: this is going to be genius. But it dropped off. Yet they still had some great moments.

The new Top Gear is just dreck.

The new Top Gear is so bad the last episode got fewer viewers than Simon Reeves' Colombia, where he talks to obscure beachside developers and FARC guerilllas about land reform and then discusses seats in Bogota Congress.

That wasn't the first episode...I think it was the second. First episode was one of the best with the epic (in 4k) & piss taking opening

tlg86

Two points of pedantry. Firstly, Fillon is a point behind, not within a point. Secondly, he's also only a point behind Macron. I can't think why Mike focussed on Le Pen.

Theuniondivvie

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rural_voter said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

The BBC will I suggest have to grovel and re-hire Clarkson, May and Hammond (NB not the PM and Chancellor, that might be even worse than watching the current TG!!). The BBC has a history of grovelling after a suitable period has elapsed.

Too late now but Euro-federalist Clarkson should have been hired by the Remain campaign. His words were far more heartfelt and positive than most from that side of the argument even if they must have caused some of his Mail-reading fans to choke in horror

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html

They can't afford him...And Amazon have him signed up for another two seasons and bbc wouldn't have let some of TGT air as some of the comments / ideas would never have passed the bbc pc ethics approval board.

The Grand Tour is, however, not proving a huge success either (tho nothing like the disaster of post-Clarkson Top Gear).

I reckon (and I'm not the first to say this) Clarkson needed the BBC as something to kick against, and to rein him in when he went too far. Every great writer needs a fine editor. Ezra Pound made a great poet of T S Eliot. On the Grand Tour, Clarkson feels wholly unedited. Over-indulged. Flabby.

That's not good. Nonetheless The Grand Tour is 49 times more watchable than the necrophiliac weirdness of Top Gear. So Clarkson's show might survive, and thrive, if he learns to hire some punchy producer who is prepared to argue with *the talent*

I see no hope for Top Gear

A lot of people seem to forget at the end Clarkson Top Gear was dying on its arse anyway, I think I watched only one episode from the last series on first showing. I've watched a couple of Joey TGs (mainly 'cos of the Alfa Giulia & Ducati v Bugatti slots), and they weren't unbearably rank.

Pulpstar

BudG said:

This is an interesting one. Le Terrain picked up the Melenchon surge in their previous poll a week or two before all the other polls did.
Macron 24 (-0.5)
Melenchon 22 (+2.5)
Le Pen 21.5 (-2.5)
Fillon 17.5 (+2)

https://blog-scanresearch.leterrain.fr/2017/04/17/jl-melenchon-devance-de-peu-m-le-pen/

It's a good puzzle for sure !

BudG

Pulpstar said:

BudG said:

This is an interesting one. Le Terrain picked up the Melenchon surge in their previous poll a week or two before all the other polls did.
Macron 24 (-0.5)
Melenchon 22 (+2.5)
Le Pen 21.5 (-2.5)
Fillon 17.5 (+2)

https://blog-scanresearch.leterrain.fr/2017/04/17/jl-melenchon-devance-de-peu-m-le-pen/

It's a good puzzle for sure !

They had him on 19 when all the rest had him at 15

Are they ahead of the curve or is it an outlier?

FF43

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

I just had the unfortunate experience of trying to watch the new Top Gear again.

It's arguably WORSE than the unwatchable Chris Evans version.

TV viewers agree: it has ended on a series low viewership, and, I suspect, the lowest viewing figures in many many years. Top Gear is the Scottish Labour of great TV shows, discuss.

http://www.tellymix.co.uk/ratings/307951-ratings-line-duty-tops-viewing-figures-top-gear-sinks-series-low.html

1.6m. Desperate. Just desperate.

The Telegraph has been super positive about it saying it is better than clarkson etc...How much are the bbc paying them to write that load of fake news?

Their TV/motoring journos absolutely loathe Clarkson (I've no idea why)

But there's no arguing with the viewer stats. Appalling. This is a dying programme. There's no way the BBC are gonna make squillions abroad with this tedious shit. It's not even a very good programme for hardcore petrolheads. It's just awkward and dull.

The ratings don't matter because if you shut the programme down they are gone anyway. FWIW it was the most popular show on BBC2 and the shows that beat it on BBC1 are Antiques Roadshow etc, that are hardly edgy and pushing the envelope. They need to do two slightly contradictory things with the series: stabilise it without the presenters that became synonymous with the Top Gear brand, so viewers who want to watch a show about cars can tune into the show on its standalone merits, and at the same time try out new things and to accept the inevitable mis-steps along the way.

HYUFD

tlg86 said:

Two points of pedantry. Firstly, Fillon is a point behind, not within a point. Secondly, he's also only a point behind Macron. I can't think why Mike focussed on Le Pen.

I think the likelihood is it will still be Macron v Le Pen but I also think the second most likely outcome now is Fillon v Le Pen, just ahead of Fillon v Macron, I think Melenchon will underperform his polling

HYUFD

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rural_voter said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

The BBC will I suggest have to grovel and re-hire Clarkson, May and Hammond (NB not the PM and Chancellor, that might be even worse than watching the current TG!!). The BBC has a history of grovelling after a suitable period has elapsed.

Too late now but Euro-federalist C

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html

They can't afford him...And Amazon have him signed up for another two seasons and bbc wouldn't have let some of TGT air as some of the comments / ideas would never have passed the bbc pc ethics approval board.

The Grand Tour is, however, not proving a huge success either (tho nothing like the disaster of post-Clarkson Top Gear).

I reckon (and I'm not the first to say this) Clarkson needed the BBC as something to kick against, and to rein him in when he went too far. Every great writer needs a fine editor. Ezra Pound made a great poet of T S Eliot. On the Grand Tour, Clarkson feels wholly unedited. Over-indulged. Flabby.

That's not good. Nonetheless The Grand Tour is 49 times more watchable than the necrophiliac weirdness of Top Gear. So Clarkson's show might survive, and thrive, if he learns to hire some punchy producer who is prepared to argue with *the talent*

I see no hope for Top Gear

If they had some decent editorial oversight, they'd have dropped celebrity brain crash after the first episode.

That was horrific...It is like they asked Chris Evans to come up with a segment!

On the positive side...The h'american was good.

The opening episode of TGT when they "attacked" some special forces basein Jodan was, to my mind, one of the

The new Top Gear is just dreck.

The new Top Gear is so bad the last episode got fewer viewers than Simon Reeves' Colombia, where he talks to obscure beachside developers and FARC guerilllas about land reform and then discusses seats in Bogota Congress.

Simon Reeves on Colombia was actually very interesting and well informed as most of his programmes are, I am not surprised it got more viewers than the new Top Gear

gettingbetter

Anyone know how French election work? Do they have canvassing and telling and the parties get the rolls and knock up. I mean how much advantage does Fillon have from being from an established party? And do the Republicans get the records of the predecessor parties? Or is there a data protection act. Because either we are missing something or Macron should still be odds on.

HYUFD

gettingbetter said:

Anyone know how French election work? Do they have canvassing and telling and the parties get the rolls and knock up. I mean how much advantage does Fillon have from being from an established party? And do the Republicans get the records of the predecessor parties? Or is there a data protection act. Because either we are missing something or Macron should still be odds on.

I think in the first round of the presidential election it should not matter too much for Macron his party is not established but in the legislative elections Les Republicains will have the advantage on that front over En Marche which is why I think the most likely outcome of the French elections is that Macron will win the Presidency but Les Republicains will win the most seats in the National Assembly leading to co-habitation

peter_from_putney

Assuming, as is the case with the UK electorate, there are a number of so-called "shy" voters, I imagine that this will help rather than hinder Fillon's chances. If the number of such shy voters is considerable which may well be the case following Fillon's (and his wife's) recent adverse media coverage, then this element could prove crucial in determining the first round outcome and indeed the final result.

FrancisUrquhart

Flip flop Andy living up to his nickname...

https://order-order.com/2017/04/17/no-mug-burnham-not-a-fan-of-posh-coffee/

Anorak

I've spent a weekend in the Lake District walking, so haven't been engaged, so this may already have been shared, but I very much enjoyed this from our absent friend:
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/853749857567346688

FrancisUrquhart

Anorak said:

I've spent a weekend in the Lake District walking, so haven't been engaged, so this may already have been shared, but I very much enjoyed this from our absent friend:
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/853749857567346688

Unless you are a member of the cult of corbynism then it is your dream to be banged by the supreme leader!

HYUFD

peter_from_putney said:

Assuming, as is the case with the UK electorate, there are a number of so-called "shy" voters, I imagine that this will help rather than hinder Fillon's chances. If the number of such shy voters is considerable which may well be the case following Fillon's (and his wife's) recent adverse media coverage, then this element could prove crucial in determining the first round outcome and indeed the final result.

Coupled with the fact most of his core support comes from pensioners who are very likely to vote

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

I just had the unfortunate experience of trying to watch the new Top Gear again.

It's arguably WORSE than the unwatchable Chris Evans version.

TV viewers agree: it has ended on a series low viewership, and, I suspect, the lowest viewing figures in many many years. Top Gear is the Scottish Labour of great TV shows, discuss.

http://www.tellymix.co.uk/ratings/307951-ratings-line-duty-tops-viewing-figures-top-gear-sinks-series-low.html

1.6m. Desperate. Just desperate.

The Telegraph has been super positive about it saying it is better than clarkson etc...How much are the bbc paying them to write that load of fake news?

Their TV/motoring journos absolutely loathe Clarkson (I've no idea why)

But there's no arguing with the viewer stats. Appalling. This is a dying programme. There's no way the BBC are gonna make squillions abroad with this tedious shit. It's not even a very good programme for hardcore petrolheads. It's just awkward and dull.

The ratings don't matter because if you shut the programme down they are gone anyway. FWIW it was the most popular show on BBC2 and the shows that beat it on BBC1 are Antiques Roadshow etc, that are hardly edgy and pushing the envelope. They need to do two slightly contradictory things with the series: stabilise it without the presenters that became synonymous with the Top Gear brand, so viewers who want to watch a show about cars can tune into the show on its standalone merits, and at the same time try out new things and to accept the inevitable mis-steps along the way.

lol. It's down to 1.6m. It's heading for Channel 5 territory. It's over. And this is the second attempt at revival. It's like digging up Lazarus the SECOND time, when first he was a bit whiffy, and now this second time he's got, like, all maggots wiggling in his eyes and stuff.

How do you come back from that? The brand is moribund.

The BBC will have to admit that it was Clarkson's unique (but irascible) persona which turned a very very niche car programme into a global phenomenon, and that trick probably isn't going to be repeated.

I remember having this debate with Roger at the time of Clarkson's sacking. He claimed that Clarkson would be easily replaced, and the genius of the BBC would ensure the continued success of the programme, as Jeremy dwindled away.

Basically, Roger has no idea how artistic talent works, which, I submit, is why he spent a TV career mired in advertising, rather than doing anything significant in any truly creative genre.

Those tampon ads don't direct themselves...

Theuniondivvie

SeanT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rural_voter said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

The BBC will I suggest have to grovel and re-hire Clarkson, May and Hammond (NB not the PM and Chancellor, that might be even worse than watching the current TG!!). The BBC has a history of grovelling after a suitable period has elapsed.

Too late now but Euro-federalist Clarkson should have been hired by the Remain campaign. His words were far more heartfelt and positive than most from that side of the argument even if they must have caused some of his Mail-reading fans to choke in horror

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html

They can't afford him...And Amazon have him signed up for another two seasons and bbc wouldn't have let some of TGT air as some of the comments / ideas would never have passed the bbc pc ethics approval board.

The Grand Tour is, however, not proving a huge success either (tho nothing like the disaster of post-Clarkson Top Gear).

I reckon (and I'm not the first to say this) Clarkson needed the BBC as something to kick against, and to rein him in when he went too far. Every great writer needs a fine editor. Ezra Pound made a great poet of T S Eliot. On the Grand Tour, Clarkson feels wholly unedited. Over-indulged. Flabby.

That's not good. Nonetheless The Grand Tour is 49 times more watchable than the necrophiliac weirdness of Top Gear. So Clarkson's show might survive, and thrive, if he learns to hire some punchy producer who is prepared to argue with *the talent*

I see no hope for Top Gear

A lot of people seem to forget at the end Clarkson Top Gear was dying on its arse anyway, I think I watched only one episode from the last series on first showing. I've watched a couple of Joey TGs (mainly 'cos of the Alfa Giulia & Ducati v Bugatti slots), and they weren't unbearably rank.

The viewer stats would seem to disagree with you. Like the Scots.

I agree the last series of Top Gear showed signs of decline (like series before), and yet some of the special trips were amongst the best ever. Especially that number plate in Patagonia. Probably less amusing to a perverted, pedophile Scot Nat like you who actually wanted Britain to lose the Falklands to Fascists, tho.

I can almost hear the squeak of the cork being eased from the second bottle..

HYUFD

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rural_voter said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I take it that the last episode of reverse gear was still as painful as the first episode....Which was truly truly terrible ..It needs taking out the back and shooting.

The BBC will I suggest have to grovel and re-hire Clarkson, May and Hammond (NB not the PM and Chancellor, that might be even worse than watching the current TG!!). The BBC has a history of grovelling after a suitable period has elapsed.

Too late now but Euro-federalist C

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/13/jeremy-clarkson-remaining-european-union_n_9450576.html

They can't afford him...And Amazon have him signed up for another two seasons and bbc wouldn't have let some of TGT air as some of the comments / ideas would never have passed the bbc pc ethics approval board.

The Grand Tour is, however, not proving a huge success either (tho nothing like the disaster of post-Clarkson Top Gear).

I reckon (and I'm not the first to say this) Clarkson needed the BBC as something to kick against, and to rein him in when he went too far. Every great writer needs a fine editor. Ezra Pound made a great poet of T S Eliot. On the Grand Tour, Clarkson feels wholly unedited. Over-indulged. Flabby.

That's not good. Nonetheless The Grand Tour is 49 times more watchable than the necrophiliac weirdness of Top Gear. So Clarkson's show might survive, and thrive, if he learns to hire some punchy producer who is prepared to argue with *the talent*

I see no hope for Top Gear

If they had some decent editorial oversight, they'd have dropped celebrity brain crash after the first episode.

That was horrific...It is like they asked Chris Evans to come up with a segment!

On the positive side...The h'american was good.

The opening episode of TGT when they "attacked" some special forces basein Jodan was, to my mind, one of the

The new Top Gear is Congress.

Simon Reeves on Colombia was actually very interesting and well informed as most of his programmes are, I am not surprised it got more viewers than the new Top Gear

Agreed. I like Simon Reeves. He's brave, candid and engaging. Always watchable.

Yes and the fact he was up against Line of Duty makes his viewing figures even more impressive. Giles Coren and Monica Galetti's 'Amazing Hotels' also on the BBC2 9pm slot now is worth a watch too

Essexit

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

I just had the unfortunate experience of trying to watch the new Top Gear again.

It's arguably WORSE than the unwatchable Chris Evans version.

TV viewers agree: it has ended on a series low viewership, and, I suspect, the lowest viewing figures in many many years. Top Gear is the Scottish Labour of great TV shows, discuss.

http://www.tellymix.co.uk/ratings/307951-ratings-line-duty-tops-viewing-figures-top-gear-sinks-series-low.html

1.6m. Desperate. Just desperate.

The Telegraph has been super positive about it saying it is better than clarkson etc...How much are the bbc paying them to write that load of fake news?

Their TV/motoring journos absolutely loathe Clarkson (I've no idea why)

But there's no arguing with the viewer stats. Appalling. This is a dying programme. There's no way the BBC are gonna make squillions abroad with this tedious shit. It's not even a very good programme for hardcore petrolheads. It's just awkward and dull.

The ratings don't matter because if you shut the programme down they are gone anyway. FWIW it was the most popular show on BBC2 and the shows that beat it on BBC1 are Antiques Roadshow etc, that are hardly edgy and pushing the envelope. They need to do two slightly contradictory things with the series: stabilise it without the presenters that became synonymous with the Top Gear brand, so viewers who want to watch a show about cars can tune into the show on its standalone merits, and at the same time try out new things and to accept the inevitable mis-steps along the way.

lol. It's down to 1.6m. It's heading for Channel 5 territory. It's over. And this is the second attempt at revival. It's like digging up Lazarus the SECOND time, when first he was a bit whiffy, and now this second time he's got, like, all maggots wiggling in his eyes and stuff.

How do you come back from that? The brand is moribund.

The BBC will have to admit that it was Clarkson's unique (but irascible) persona which turned a very very niche car programme into a global phenomenon, and that trick probably isn't going to be repeated.

I remember having this debate with Roger at the time of Clarkson's sacking. He claimed that Clarkson would be easily replaced, and the genius of the BBC would ensure the continued success of the programme, as Jeremy dwindled away.

Basically, Roger has no idea how artistic talent works, which, I submit, is why he spent a TV career mired in advertising, rather than doing anything significant in any truly creative genre.

Come now, I'm sure Roger's worked on some thoroughly absorbent material.

Cyan

Can the French president invoke article 13 of the NATO treaty and pull France out of NATO without parliamentary approval?

Mélenchon promises to withdraw. Le Pen and Dupont-Aignan promise to withdraw from the integrated command structure. Fillon and Macron are basically fine with NATO as it is.

Say you're Putin. Who are you going to support?

Meanwhile, on the front page of his website Fillon is telling people how to vote by proxy. I suppose proxy is one of the things that established party machines are good at.

FF43

SeanT said:

lol. It's down to 1.6m. It's heading for Channel 5 territory. It's over. And this is the second attempt at revival. It's like digging up Lazarus the SECOND time, when first he was a bit whiffy, and now this second time he's got, like, all maggots wiggling in his eyes and stuff.

How do you come back from that? The brand is moribund.

The BBC will have to admit that it was Clarkson's unique (but irascible) persona which turned a very very niche car programme into a global phenomenon, and that trick probably isn't going to be repeated.

I remember having this debate with Roger at the time of Clarkson's sacking. He claimed that Clarkson would be easily replaced, and the genius of the BBC would ensure the continued success of the programme, as Jeremy dwindled away.

Basically, Roger has no idea how artistic talent works, which, I submit, is why he spent a TV career mired in advertising, rather than doing anything significant in any truly creative genre.

The official BARB figures aren't out for the latest two episodes. They were consistently above 3 million for the first five episodes, which is OK, if half what Clarkson et al were getting latterly. Personally, I am ambivalent about whether the BBC should have killed Top Gear off to do something completely different, but I think a case can be made for it. The BBC's big mistake was allowing the Top Gear brand to be taken over by Clarkson, but once it was they didn't want to kill the goose laying the golden eggs. And of course they made a tidy packet out of it. Now they are trying to wrest the brand back again.

TheScreamingEagles

I wish I could say I was surprised by this but....

https://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/854059951106424836

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wish I could say I was surprised by this but....

twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/854059951106424836

Wonder what he was eating for dessert when he did so?

Toms

It's probably oxymoronic and cretinous to ask this. Do they produce the odd TV programme that inspires activity rather than the passivity of watching other people do things?

SimonStClare

Toms said:

It's probably oxymoronic to suggest this. Do they produce the odd TV programme that inspires activity rather than the passivity of watching other people do things?

No, that TV format has not been around since the test card.

chestnut

Toms said:

It's probably oxymoronic and cretinous to ask this. Do they produce the odd TV programme that inspires activity rather than the passivity of watching other people do things?

QVC is committed to getting it's viewers to shop. Does that count?

Theuniondivvie

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

RobD

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Well duh.. we haven't left yet.

ThreeQuidder

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

Toms

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wish I could say I was surprised by this but....

https://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/854059951106424836

Now they can do business.

RobD

ThreeQuidder said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

Could add the name of the publication, but a tinyurl is a good way to avoid the comments crapping out for people on phones. If the link is too long it becomes almost unreadable.

Big_G_NorthWales

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

You do know deals cannot be made before we leave, though all the groundwork will be done beforehand

FrancisUrquhart

I didn't realise macron met his wife at school...Where she was his teacher...And he has 7 step grand children at the grand old age of 39.

NickPalmer

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

Two points of pedantry. Firstly, Fillon is a point behind, not within a point. Secondly, he's also only a point behind Macron. I can't think why Mike focussed on Le Pen.

I think the likelihood is it will still be Macron v Le Pen but I also think the second most likely outcome now is Fillon v Le Pen, just ahead of Fillon v Macron, I think Melenchon will underperform his polling

Two other polls put Fillon at a less close 19.5%:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

If you do fancy Fillon, I'd suggest going for the first round win stakes - you can get 7 there and are basically gambling on a late surge putting him over. If he takes out Le Pen, he simply loses to Macron. I agree that if he takes out Macron, he wins, but that still looks unlikely.

Sunil_Prasannan

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

RMS Brexitania

RepublicanTory

FrancisUrquhart said:

I didn't realise macron met his wife at school...Where she was his teacher...And he has 7 step grand children at the grand old age of 39.

The more you read and hear about him the more you think
Mmm
President of France ??

And if you look at the polls he has plateaued since he became the front runner and the more you look at this the more it looks like Fillion really has a chance of not only getting into R2 but the Elysee

Utterly ridiculous.

Cyan

RobD said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

Could add the name of the publication, but a tinyurl is a good way to avoid the comments crapping out for people on phones. If the link is too long it becomes almost unreadable.

I haven't got a smartphone, but if they can accept "<" and ">" one can surely use HTML and type something like
[a href="http://www.some-website.com/index.html"]This[/a] is the article
replacing "[" and "]" with "<" and ">".

That comes out like this:
this is the article.
Less bother than going to tinyurl.com.

RobD

Cyan said:

RobD said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

Could add the name of the publication, but a tinyurl is a good way to avoid the comments crapping out for people on phones. If the link is too long it becomes almost unreadable.

I haven't got a smartphone, but if they can accept "<" and ">" one can surely use HTML and type something like "[T href="http://www.some-website.com/index.html"]This[/T] is the article", replacing "[" and "]" with "<" and ">".

Yeah, HTML tags are another way to go. It isn't that smartphones can't use the symbols, it's that posting a long link messes up the formatting when the website is viewed on some smartphones.

Theuniondivvie

ThreeQuidder said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

No.

ThreeQuidder

Cyan said:

RobD said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

Could add the name of the publication, but a tinyurl is a good way to avoid the comments crapping out for people on phones. If the link is too long it becomes almost unreadable.

I haven't got a smartphone, but if they can accept "<" and ">" one can surely use HTML and type something like
[a href="http://www.some-website.com/index.html"]This[/a] is the article
replacing "[" and "]" with "<" and ">".

That comes out like this:
this is the article.
Less bother than going to tinyurl.com.

I haven't ever had any problems with long links on my phone anyway? Is it a problem with Ios or something?

ThreeQuidder

RobD said:

Cyan said:

RobD said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

Could add the name of the publication, but a tinyurl is a good way to avoid the comments crapping out for people on phones. If the link is too long it becomes almost unreadable.

I haven't got a smartphone, but if they can accept "<" and ">" one can surely use HTML and type something like "[T href="http://www.some-website.com/index.html"]This[/T] is the article", replacing "[" and "]" with "<" and ">".

Yeah, HTML tags are another way to go. It isn't that smartphones can't use the symbols, it's that posting a long link messes up the formatting when the website is viewed on some smartphones.

I'm going hazard a guess that this isn't why Divvie is using tinyurl.

ThreeQuidder

Theuniondivvie said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

No.

Ok, I'll just continue to not bother clicking.

TheScreamingEagles

ThreeQuidder said:

Cyan said:

RobD said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

Could add the name of the publication, but a tinyurl is a good way to avoid the comments crapping out for people on phones. If the link is too long it becomes almost unreadable.

I haven't got a smartphone, but if they can accept "<" and ">" one can surely use HTML and type something like
[a href="http://www.some-website.com/index.html"]This[/a] is the article
replacing "[" and "]" with "<" and ">".

That comes out like this:
this is the article.
Less bother than going to tinyurl.com.

I haven't ever had any problems with long links on my phone anyway? Is it a problem with Ios or something?

Yes, is an issue with iPhones and iPads.

Cyan

Theuniondivvie said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

No.

First rule of rhetoric: consider your audience

ThreeQuidder

Cyan said:

RobD said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

Could add the name of the publication, but a tinyurl is a good way to avoid the comments crapping out for people on phones. If the link is too long it becomes almost unreadable.

I haven't got a smartphone, but if they can accept "<" and ">" one can surely use HTML and type something like
[a href="http://www.some-website.com/index.html"]This[/a] is the article
replacing "[" and "]" with "<" and ">".

That comes out like this:
this is the article.
Less bother than going to tinyurl.com.

There's a link option above the comment box. Type the alt text, highlight, click "link" and you get a box to enter the URL - and Vanilla handles the HTML.

HYUFD

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

tlg86 said:

Two points of pedantry. Firstly, Fillon is a point behind, not within a point. Secondly, he's also only a point behind Macron. I can't think why Mike focussed on Le Pen.

I think the likelihood is it will still be Macron v Le Pen but I also think the second most likely outcome now is Fillon v Le Pen, just ahead of Fillon v Macron, I think Melenchon will underperform his polling

Two other polls put Fillon at a less close 19.5%:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

If you do fancy Fillon, I'd suggest going for the first round win stakes - you can get 7 there and are basically gambling on a late surge putting him over. If he takes out Le Pen, he simply loses to Macron. I agree that if he takes out Macron, he wins, but that still looks unlikely.

I don't think he wins the first round, I think if Fillon gets to the runoff it will be by knocking out either Macron or Le Pen to face the other

HYUFD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

RMS Brexitania

So Britannia goes from the royal ship for HMQ to the Brexit ship for Liam Fox!

MaxPB

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

You do know deals cannot be made before we leave, though all the groundwork will be done beforehand

He wouldn't feel need to hide a Daily Mirror article behind that tinyurl link if he didn't know.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Cyan said:

RobD said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

Could add the name of the publication, but a tinyurl is a good way to avoid the comments crapping out for people on phones. If the link is too long it becomes almost unreadable.

I haven't got a smartphone, but if they can accept "<" and ">" one can surely use HTML and type something like
[a href="http://www.some-website.com/index.html"]This[/a] is the article
replacing "[" and "]" with "<" and ">".

That comes out like this:
this is the article.
Less bother than going to tinyurl.com.

I haven't ever had any problems with long links on my phone anyway? Is it a problem with Ios or something?

Yes, is an issue with iPhones and iPads.

crApple

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Cyan said:

RobD said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Any chance you could post URLs without hiding the source behind tinyurl?

Could add the name of the publication, but a tinyurl is a good way to avoid the comments crapping out for people on phones. If the link is too long it becomes almost unreadable.

I haven't got a smartphone, but if they can accept "<" and ">" one can surely use HTML and type something like
[a href="http://www.some-website.com/index.html"]This[/a] is the article
replacing "[" and "]" with "<" and ">".

That comes out like this:
this is the article.
Less bother than going to tinyurl.com.

I haven't ever had any problems with long links on my phone anyway? Is it a problem with Ios or something?

Yes, is an issue with iPhones and iPads.

crApple

I browse the main site when on my laptop, and through vanilla when I'm on my phone. Simples!

surbiton

FrancisUrquhart said:

I didn't realise macron met his wife at school...Where she was his teacher...And he has 7 step grand children at the grand old age of 39.

"In praise of the older woman"..............

surbiton

Theuniondivvie said:

Irrefutable proof that a royal yacht is required.

'Liam Fox's team travelled 240,000 miles during 35 trips - but have made NO post-Brexit trade deals'

http://tinyurl.com/kf4zw3j

Wow ! Enough Air Miles to take a "friend " on holiday !!!!

viewcode

For all those of you that may be interested, the BBC radio adaptation of the well written (tho incredibly plagiarised) Stephen Baxter book "Voyage", about an alternate 1980's mission to Mars, can be found in toto on iPlayer. You can find it here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00lh6t1/episodes/player

surbiton

Pulpstar said:

BudG said:

This is an interesting one. Le Terrain picked up the Melenchon surge in their previous poll a week or two before all the other polls did.
Macron 24 (-0.5)
Melenchon 22 (+2.5)
Le Pen 21.5 (-2.5)
Fillon 17.5 (+2)

https://blog-scanresearch.leterrain.fr/2017/04/17/jl-melenchon-devance-de-peu-m-le-pen/

It's a good puzzle for sure !

Hamon voters will definitely switch now. Melenchon for President.

RobD

viewcode said:

For all those of you that may be interested, the BBC radio adaptation of the well written (tho incredibly plagiarised) Stephen Baxter book "Voyage", about an alternate 1980's mission to Mars, can be found in toto on iPlayer. You can find it here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00lh6t1/episodes/player

Thanks, sounds interesting!

Richard_Nabavi

NickPalmer said:

Two other polls put Fillon at a less close 19.5%:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
...

Quite so. The thread's headline 'new poll has [Fillon] within a point of Le Pen' could just as accurately be 'new Elabe poll has Macron pulling further ahead against Fillon'.

Overall, Macron and Le Pen still look neck-and-neck in the first round, with Fillon and Mélenchon disputing third place and around three to four points behind the top two.