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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next President of France
The above tables from the excellent Wikipedia round of of French polls tell a consistent story – whoever of those closest on the first round ends up fighting Macron then the young independent looks set to be the winner.
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https://youtube.com/watch?v=hkZir1L7fSY
Long, drawn-out and complicated, thank god we don’t have Presidential elections in the UK.
Lights are burning late in Bedford on an appropriate response - all options including the ultimate Con Home permanent exile are on the table.
Meanwhile, physicists create a time crystal, which some of the physicists who theorised them said wasn't possible:
https://phys.org/news/2017-04-physicists-crystals-key-quantum-machines.html
The French party system is well an truly smashed, at least at presidential level.
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/853961459591720960
If that really is the standard of our negotiating technique, we are going to get reamed
We'll be out. So, if we have:
1) immigration at similar levels to those of today via a cocktail of specialist visas;
2) regulatory equivalence which would mean ensuring our standards and regulations are subject to ongoing adherence to those made in Brussels;
3) services, such as clearing, remaining in the UK which, in that particular respect would mean the BoE liable for bailing out EU-based financial services firms should one of them go bust;
4) etc
Because we'll be master of our own destiny and we'll be out.
Not in this instance I would think.
Mr. Meeks, to be fair, there was some talk of that yesterday between myself, Mr. G and Mr. rkrkrk (perhaps others too, after I left).
It's certainly close.
' Public sector net debt as a share of GDP will be 62 per cent this year, before peaking at 70 per cent in 2013-14. Because of our action today, it then begins to fall, to 69 per cent in 2014-15 and then 67 per cent in 2015-16. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/7846849/Budget-2010-Full-text-of-George-Osbornes-statement.html
Public sector net debt as a share of GDP currently stands at 85.4 per cent.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x/pusf
That's the equivalent of approaching £400bn of over-borrowing.
Since consensus is that MLP can never win the final vote, from the system's point of view it would be best if two others went through to the final round, and MLP went out, allowing an actual final choice.
But is then full of little details like 'needs consent from dwp ' and 'outside the powers' of the mayoralty, including the NHS stuff. So outside of some publicity, which is not nothing, who the mayor is doesn't affect many of the issues.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/17/knife-edge-west-midlands-race-points-to-labours-future/
"Le terrorisme islamique" almost the first words he comes out with at every rally
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39625509
The principal sites are mostly owned by the Canary Wharf Group, which was spun out of Olympia & York when it went under, that (Canadian) company having done much of the original development.
https://twitter.com/anamariecox/status/854151226572890112
You seem to think that you have a point. Perhaps you can have another go at expressing it?
https://twitter.com/Pierre_Benjamin/status/853978441154252800
In my defence, Kerry and Romney aren't hugely dissimilar.
So, if you've got a stack of cash and don't believe anyone else will stand a chance (worth remembering we're in early days) you could back both and finish ahead if either wins.
The 'argue about everything' strategy is certainly worth trying after the complete failure of Blair's 'say yes to whatever the French want' and Cameron's 'bluster, surrender, lie' strategies.
This property has a 25 year lease on it until 2040, cumulative cost around 300m.
Using their preferred division of responsibility, they owe around 85% of the 300m bill on a property this almost certainly wish to vacate.
That leaves them with a problem. Honouring obligations and not cherry picking cuts both ways.
Oh, you're a Leaver. Carry on.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/will-protect-marine-le-pen-vows-end-immigration-france-elected/
It depends on the way negotiations develop though. Whatever happens, it's a 300m obligation.
As long as both parties agree it's no problem surely?
This is not difficult stuff.
The "argue about everything" strategy just wastes time if you want Brexit to look anything like "success".
Oui and non.
The long time frame and relatively low return, plus necessary funding, is why I'm not backing it myself. But I know PB has some fellows who play with much bigger stakes who might be interested.
I'm astounded their odds permit this. The only way one of them doesn't win (barring broken legs or that sort of thing) is if Red Bull not merely closes the gap, but actually becomes the fastest team.
Of course, if that happens, my 46 on them for the Constructors' would look a bit less daft
Mr. 43, losing influence for nothing reminds me of Brown ignoring a manifesto pledge to sign away vetoes in Lisbon.
Time will tell whether we were right to vote to leave.
They may also prefer a negotiated arrangement where they pay absolutely nothing on London property in return for an obligations swap with the UK on leases across the existing EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/jeremy-corbyn-says-cant-name-one-mistake-made-have-many-reveals/
If you discount one of the other two coming through on the rails to take first place on sunday, then the odds should surely be a lot closer between Macron and Le Pen.
The mantra that Le Pen will win and get smashed in the final round is something that has been engrained in the psyche of these markets ever since they opened. For most of the past year, the polls have supported this belief, but not any more.
Some people may justify her favouritism in the market to come first by pointing to her high "certainty to vote" percentage. Well that has been consistent at around 84% and yet she has lost around 20% of her support in the past month, coming down from a high of 27% to 22-22.5%, so it would indicate that the 84% who were certain to vote for her were obviously not that certain!!
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....
I am not sure that there is a French Miliband. Has Hamon had a #Hamonstone?
"Getting out the vote" is very different in France (from either US or UK) because canvassing is totally illegal.
The parties are only authorized to keep e-mail addresses and mobile numbers from members and people who volunteer their details online. Contacting them on the day of voting (or at any time after Friday 11.59 pm) is considered campaigning and is forbidden. Offering lifts to the polling station is tolerated as long as it is not explicitly linked to a given candidate and if it is arranged beforehand.
Late campaigning is a very frequent cause for the cancellation of local elections.
I wonder if the rise of Melanchon will discourage people from 'making a statement', and voting Le Pen in the first round. Let's say you are a disgruntled, centre right, Frenchman. You think there's been too much Muslim immigration, and you're not keen on the Euro. At the same time, you believe the holocaust happened, you don't think Putin is the greatest thing since sliced bread, and you value managerial competence. You'd planned to vote Le Pen in round one to make it clear to the politicians that you care about these things, even if didn't really want her as President. The rise of Melachon makes the 'free kicking of the establishment' much harder: the last thing you want is either Le Pen or Melachon to actually end up President. So maybe now you hold your nose and vote Fillon, or even Macron.
Anyway, it's just a theory.