Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Was this the reason for TMay’s election decision?

1234689

Comments

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    It's been a full generation since the last general election
    Arguably, deciding that a GE is required and arranging to hold one is 'the Day Job' for Mrs May.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Vince Cable is standing...
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW

    St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".

    Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.

    SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.

    Con maj 80-90 I reckon

    Better figurework would start from 2010 results. The 2015 election was as atypical as coalition government that preceded it.
    You think people's default view of the LDs will just revert to their 2010 one?

    surely not. Remember most people do not follow politics much between general elections. I find it hard to believe that many people's first serious exposure to the non-entity that is Tim Farron is going to lead to a surge in support for the LDs. But who knows - exciting times ahead for psephological anoraks :-)
    Farron is one of the best campaigners there is. OK he may not be as much a heavyweight politico as Clegg, but then Farron won't be pitching to be PM, or even DPM. Is May a better campaigner than Cameron? Is Corbyn a better campaigner than Miliband? Yes...exciting times.
    If Farron and the LDs have a storming campaign, they could win 50+ seats. You heard it here first!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    rkrkrk said:

    Vince Cable is standing...

    Resurrection
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/854309823227322368

    Looks like Gorton is off, if that timetable is correct.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited April 2017

    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    One factor is we don't know if UKIP will stand everywhere in June. In Vince's seat they got 3,000 votes and I assume most of them would vote Tory if there wasn't a UKIP candidate.

    Yes, absolutely that will be a key factor in many seats (and may help screw up UNS). Even if they do stand, how much their vote collapses could make a big difference and vary a lot from seat to seat.

    One example is Eastbourne. My initial thought was that Caroline Ansell would probably lose her seat this time (she had a tiny majority of 733 last time). But there were 6,000 UKIP votes, and if a good number of those go Conservative then that might be enough to save her.
    Wrong. Most of the UKIP votes came from the LibDems.
    Inasmuch as that's the case (and I don't think it's as simple as that), that doesn't mean they'll go back to the LibDems. The political landscape has radically changed.
    Nevertheless, in those tight hard-fought Tory/LibDem marginals, most of the people who would vote Tory did vote Tory. Those that went for UKIP were those that won't.

    Yes, Brexit has changed things radically. But in most of those seats that will work in the LibDem's favour.
  • bazzer72bazzer72 Posts: 29
    I don't post on here much these days but I've knocking around politics betting for a good few years, even did some politics odds compiling for Luvbet.com before this blog was around for those with very, very long memories.

    I came on here in February to say this outcome felt inevitable back then and all you pb junkies junkies pretty much trashed me. Was very, very surprised that you lot didn't see this coming...Most bizarre theory was that a) TM wouldn't break her word - after announcement nobody cares however lame the excuse the caravan moves on or b) ftpa prevented it. No opposition can ever oppose an election call.

    Given the real expertise and in depth knowledge by many contributors on this site, and how much more regularly you guys bet on. Elections, frankly staggered how gullible and naive you pretty much all were

    Pulpstar said:

    May is NOT going to have a may election. The fixed term parliament act is in place, and she has the mother of all negotiations coming up. How would our european counterparts look on us if we're going to take a time out to have a blimming election in the meantime ?

    The only place any sort of Brexit blocking might go on is the Lords, and a GE changes nothing in the other place.

    I can't believe people are seriously entertaining such guff. Are you the ones backing 5-2 on Betfair for the early election ???

    The good Tory poll numbers just make it all so tempting is all, but it just doesn't seem feasible,

    The PM has a mandate for Brexit, which is her primary task for this parliament. She will not delay or interrupt the negotiations once they have started with a general election imho, no matter how enticing to polls are
    HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 27,671
    February 4

    bazzer72 said:

    She had to dampen speculation last year. Learning the lesson of Gordon browns false start election disaster. She desperately needs a mandate. Will dog her when going gets tough. Why can't she't trigger and say: "now that we begin the process of brexit, it is only right that the British people have the chance to define the type of brexit they want. I believe my white paper means the Conservatives have the best chance of making a success of brexit".

    You say she can't say that now after what was said in the Autumn. It would be no bigger a u turn surely than Cameron quitting the day after brexit. That was always inevitable given the result, but for political reasons his holding line was that he would stay on. It was incredible but people swallowed it. No election was surely just last autumn's holding line while they waited to see how things panned out?

    No she doesn't, 17 million people voted Leave and the Tories already have an overall majority, that is mandate enough. Though if the Tories gain Copeland that would send her off to Brussels with an added spring in her step!
  • bazzer72bazzer72 Posts: 29
    bazzer72
    bazzer72 Posts: 18
    February 4
    Can you really see Corbyn and Labour opposing a vote for an election to give May a mandate to negotiate? What would be the line? We don't think it's worth asking the British people to give may a mandate...She has one already to do as she wishes? Doesn't make sense to mejustin124 Posts: 3,164
    February 4

    bazzer72 said:

    To me it feels very, very likely that TM will call a general election in May or over next few months, assuming by elections go ok.

    Her poll rating are stratospheric and she would presumably get a big majority.

    Perhaps trigger article 50 in march then go to country for a mandate to support her negotiating strategy.

    I know people say with fixed term act it's harder to call election, but who is going to vote against the idea of an election?

    I just cannot see any possible advantage to her in letting go the term run. Things are just bound to go downhill and risk unravelling.

    She has also has perfect excuse to call it as she can say brexit most important decision since war etc...Important I have support for my strategy from British people...

    I know she is very cautious but surely she would be insain not to take this opportunity to avoid being a 1 term premier?

    Why would Labour facilitate an election if all the omens point to a heavy defeat for them?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    surbiton said:

    Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW

    St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".

    Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.

    SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.

    Con maj 80-90 I reckon

    Bit surprised. The PB Tories are talking their majority down. They are in 150 territory.
    Not appearing overconfident might be important for the Tories in a few contests. Appearing gloating might put people off.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Jonathan said:

    This is the Brexit election. Expect a tactical voting campaign.

    I am hoping it would be. How would Hampstead vote ? Every seat will not follow the national opinion polls. If that were to be so, Goldsmith would not have lost ?

    Will the Tories retain Copeland ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    surbiton said:

    Jonathan said:

    This is the Brexit election. Expect a tactical voting campaign.

    I am hoping it would be. How would Hampstead vote ? Every seat will not follow the national opinion polls. If that were to be so, Goldsmith would not have lost ?

    Will the Tories retain Copeland ?
    Yes.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Eastbourne voted heavily for Leave so I think a LD gain is not particularly likely. Interesting that the UKIP share in the polls isn't down much at all, to around 11% from 13% at GE2015. Yet they seem to be struggling to find candidates for the local elections.

    The lack of much movement in both the UKIP and LibDem shares in the opinion polls is frankly baffling. I don't really believe it, to be honest; surely in current political conditions, and given the respective states of the two parties, as well as the collapse of Labour, it must be the case that the LibDems will do a lot better, and UKIP a lot worse, than the current polls suggest. It may simply be that voters haven't been paying much attention.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    bazzer72 said:

    bazzer72
    bazzer72 Posts: 18
    February 4
    Can you really see Corbyn and Labour opposing a vote for an election to give May a mandate to negotiate? What would be the line? We don't think it's worth asking the British people to give may a mandate...She has one already to do as she wishes? Doesn't make sense to mejustin124 Posts: 3,164
    February 4

    bazzer72 said:

    To me it feels very, very likely that TM will call a general election in May or over next few months, assuming by elections go ok.

    Her poll rating are stratospheric and she would presumably get a big majority.

    Perhaps trigger article 50 in march then go to country for a mandate to support her negotiating strategy.

    I know people say with fixed term act it's harder to call election, but who is going to vote against the idea of an election?

    I just cannot see any possible advantage to her in letting go the term run. Things are just bound to go downhill and risk unravelling.

    She has also has perfect excuse to call it as she can say brexit most important decision since war etc...Important I have support for my strategy from British people...

    I know she is very cautious but surely she would be insain not to take this opportunity to avoid being a 1 term premier?

    Why would Labour facilitate an election if all the omens point to a heavy defeat for them?

    Show off.

    So what would you predict, since your prognostication proved so spot on?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.
    Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    I think Corbyn has been playing this well so far. He clearly knew and has been getting policy out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/854309823227322368

    Looks like Gorton is off, if that timetable is correct.

    It's going to be cancelled the day before? Seriously? Although I guess the decision will be made somewhat earlier.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/854309823227322368

    Looks like Gorton is off, if that timetable is correct.

    How can that be so ? Parliament is not dissolved until it is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    edited April 2017
    murali_s said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW

    St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".

    Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.

    SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.

    Con maj 80-90 I reckon

    Better figurework would start from 2010 results. The 2015 election was as atypical as coalition government that preceded it.
    You think people's default view of the LDs will just revert to their 2010 one?

    surely not. Remember most people do not follow politics much between general elections. I find it hard to believe that many people's first serious exposure to the non-entity that is Tim Farron is going to lead to a surge in support for the LDs. But who knows - exciting times ahead for psephological anoraks :-)
    Farron is one of the best campaigners there is. OK he may not be as much a heavyweight politico as Clegg, but then Farron won't be pitching to be PM, or even DPM. Is May a better campaigner than Cameron? Is Corbyn a better campaigner than Miliband? Yes...exciting times.
    If Farron and the LDs have a storming campaign, they could win 50+ seats. You heard it here first!
    That'd be one hell of a swift recovery!

    Any hope for the LDs in Wales, or is Montgomeryshire gone or good now?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    WRT the Lib Dems, if they were to hit 24%, I expect they'd knock Labour into third place, in terms of vote share.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Gisela Stuart, who has represented Birmingham Edgbaston since 1997 as a Labour MP, is thought to be planning to retire.

    And there is widespread speculation that Labour’s Richard Burden, who has represented Birmingham Northfield since 1992, will retire. He is recovering from an illness.

    Neither MP will make any announcement until they have informed their constituency parties.

    A third Birmingham seat currently held by Labour, Birmingham Erdington, could also be vulnerable to the Conservatives. Sitting Labour MP Jack Dromey has confirmed he will definitely stand again in this seat."

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/general-election-conservatives-could-take-12908799
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited April 2017
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/854309823227322368

    Looks like Gorton is off, if that timetable is correct.

    It's going to be cancelled the day before? Seriously? Although I guess the decision will be made somewhat earlier.
    Looks like it. Not much point electing a member for the few seconds they will be an MP (if they moved dissolution to just after the vote)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Jonathan said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Vince Cable is standing...

    Resurrection
    More night of the living dead.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    @bazzer72

    Yes I got this one wrong !

    Here is my Betfair "year of next election" screen if it makes you feel better :)

    2017
    -£387.97
    2018
    -£387.97
    2019
    -£387.97
    2020
    -£387.97
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Next Labour leader candidates according to Rentoul:

    Nandy (if she wants it), Lewis (if he keeps seat), Yvette and Starmer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/854309823227322368

    Looks like Gorton is off, if that timetable is correct.

    How can that be so ? Parliament is not dissolved until it is.
    Parliament was dissolved 4 days before the London University by election in 1924. That didn't stop the by election being cancelled.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    edited April 2017
    SeanT said:

    You and Southam are both Labourites who want Corbyn gone. The best way of achieving that is by Labour getting annihilated. So this is an election when sensible Labourites, like you two, could morally justify a "tactical abstention", to assist Jezbollah out of the door.

    I want a Labour government. I want Labour councils locally. I want to build our (locally to me) 2015 momentum in the 2019 locals. Jez is finished and his lunatic fringe with him whether we get a Tory majority of 50 or 150, so my duty to my party and to the movement I have been part of since I was 14 is to get out and deliver (and write) leaflets and organise and door knock and say whatever my professional negotiator brain can generate to persuade people to come out and vote Labour.

    That we absolutely will NOT win is the best argument I have. You don't need to worry about Jeremy defending us against Kim Jong-Un, but you do need to worry about the next Labour leader having enough MPs to defend you against hard brexit and sadistic austerity and the destruction of local council services.

    So vote Labour knowing Jeremy will be gone in 8 weeks and that we need to stop MayBe changing her mind again as she has on having an election.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    DavidL said:

    Y0kel said:

    Just exactly where are all the Conservative gains going to be?

    I see the polls but I just cant see on current boundaries where they are going to pick up 20 or 30 net gains.

    There is a list of 50 here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html
    All great but that assumes a swing that is universal, which is unlikely and that the Conservatives hold on to everything they got, unlikely. I think they'd genuinely do well to get themselves to 30-35 majority. Despite the fact there is no credible opposition leader, with two Mr Weedy's in charge, there is a limit to potential, a point where votes simply will stop stacking up in the right place.

    Anything above 35 majority is a terrific result.
    Con lose 15 to LD
    Con gain 60 from Lab
    Con gain 5 from SNP

    Result: Con maj circa 100.
    Do Labour have 60 seats to give?
    I'm not quite sure I understand?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    I can't believe the media have missed the biggest story of the day....Harry redknapp is back in English football!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    What if May loses her majority. What a footnote she would be.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    A ramble on other gambles for power (no prizes for guessing the first) in history:
    http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/grasping-power.html
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    SeanT said:

    You and Southam are both Labourites who want Corbyn gone. The best way of achieving that is by Labour getting annihilated. So this is an election when sensible Labourites, like you two, could morally justify a "tactical abstention", to assist Jezbollah out of the door.

    I want a Labour government. I want Labour councils locally. I want to build our (locally to me) 2015 momentum in the 2019 locals. Jez is finished and his lunatic fringe with him whether we get a Tory majority of 50 or 150, so my duty to my party and to the movement I have been part of since I was 14 is to get out and deliver (and write) leaflets and organise and door knock and say whatever my professional negotiator brain can generate to persuade people to come out and vote Labour.

    That we absolutely will NOT win is the best argument I have. You don't need to worry about Jeremy defending us against Kim Jong-Un, but you do need to worry about the next Labour leader having enough MPs to defend you against hard brexit and sadistic austerity and the destruction of local council services.

    So vote Labour knowing Jeremy will be gone in 8 weeks and that we need to stop MayBe changing her mind again as she has on having an election.

    Tory canvassers from 2001 will recognise those arguments!
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    The analysis on Radio 4* at lunchtime was that May wants a bigger majority, based on a sensible Brexit manifesto, which will give her power over the right-wing agitators in the party.

    *Michael Gove, unpopular though he often is, was on R4. He is a wonderful communicator. Very articulate indeed. As was Labour's Stewart Wood, to be fair.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Maybe May also thinks this is as good as the economy is going to get over the next few years? Amidst all the tactics we forget government fortunes usually depend on the bread and butter.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/854328227053096962

    Shocking that you posted a story that says things are looking better for the UK. :p
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    OK, this time we surely will have more Con MPs than Pandas in Scotland, right? They only missed Berwickshire by a few hundred votes last time!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    OK, this time we surely will have more Con MPs than Pandas in Scotland, right? They only missed Berwickshire by a few hundred votes last time!

    Someone earlier was predicting a sextupling of the number of Scottish Tory MPs.. I had to grab the smelling salts :o
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    murali_s said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW

    St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".

    Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.

    SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.

    Con maj 80-90 I reckon

    Better figurework would start from 2010 results. The 2015 election was as atypical as coalition government that preceded it.
    You think people's default view of the LDs will just revert to their 2010 one?

    surely not. Remember most people do not follow politics much between general elections. I find it hard to believe that many people's first serious exposure to the non-entity that is Tim Farron is going to lead to a surge in support for the LDs. But who knows - exciting times ahead for psephological anoraks :-)
    Farron is one of the best campaigners there is. OK he may not be as much a heavyweight politico as Clegg, but then Farron won't be pitching to be PM, or even DPM. Is May a better campaigner than Cameron? Is Corbyn a better campaigner than Miliband? Yes...exciting times.
    If Farron and the LDs have a storming campaign, they could win 50+ seats. You heard it here first!
    Where are they going to come from. Unless they can win some back in Scotland, they'd be needing a result in England and Wales the likes of which they've only achieved once in 90 years - and that off the back of their Iraq War stance.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    justin124 said:

    I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke.

    My sense is general public wont care about a broken semi commitment to serve a full term.
    But whilst we on here get excited about an election... Most people don't like them... 'too much politics right now' might sum up a lot of people's views after this, Brexit, GE 2015, Sindy etc...

    No idea what that means - other than probably low turnout?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    RobD said:

    twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/854328227053096962

    Shocking that you posted a story that says things are looking better for the UK. :p
    That basically says that May needs more domestic strength in order to do what the EU asks of her. It's good for the UK economy, but not good for the promise of 'taking back control'.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lidington: Parliament to be dissolved on 2nd May.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. kle4, nothing wrong with getting credit for getting a prediction right, especially when most disagree with it.

    Mr. 72, post more often.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407

    SeanT said:

    You and Southam are both Labourites who want Corbyn gone. The best way of achieving that is by Labour getting annihilated. So this is an election when sensible Labourites, like you two, could morally justify a "tactical abstention", to assist Jezbollah out of the door.

    I want a Labour government. I want Labour councils locally. I want to build our (locally to me) 2015 momentum in the 2019 locals. Jez is finished and his lunatic fringe with him whether we get a Tory majority of 50 or 150, so my duty to my party and to the movement I have been part of since I was 14 is to get out and deliver (and write) leaflets and organise and door knock and say whatever my professional negotiator brain can generate to persuade people to come out and vote Labour.

    That we absolutely will NOT win is the best argument I have. You don't need to worry about Jeremy defending us against Kim Jong-Un, but you do need to worry about the next Labour leader having enough MPs to defend you against hard brexit and sadistic austerity and the destruction of local council services.

    So vote Labour knowing Jeremy will be gone in 8 weeks and that we need to stop MayBe changing her mind again as she has on having an election.

    I would never advise you to quit a movement that means so much to you, but I have to comment that you bear no duty to a movement if it moves away from you, or the party attached to that movement becomes untenable. I don't think it is, and you seem confident Corbyn will be gone and they can become more effective again, but it is a political party, not a religion, you owe no duty if it, at some point, fails to serve your interests and the interests of wider society.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/854309823227322368

    Looks like Gorton is off, if that timetable is correct.

    It's going to be cancelled the day before? Seriously? Although I guess the decision will be made somewhat earlier.
    It won't make a huge amount of difference. The assumption has to be that the same candidates will contest the GE, so it's just a long campaign for them. The polling stations will all be used for the Manchester mayoral election anyway.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Can't see how Gorton can go ahead if Parliament is dissolved on 2nd May.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Jonathan said:

    What if May loses her majority. What a footnote she would be.

    Would she stand down? Arguably would be an enormous defeat... But also leaves country in gridlock/chaos if she does...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Yep - today is a good day. And I won't have to stay up late on 8th June either. That'll be a GE night first for me.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    AndyJS said:

    Can't see how Gorton can go ahead if Parliament is dissolved on 2nd May.

    https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/854332995918065665
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    Yep - today is a good day. And I won't have to stay up late on 8th June either. That'll be a GE night first for me.

    Agreed. Early to bed on June 8 and a very good day today for those wanting a soft/EEA Brexit. In many ways, May is trying to complete the job at which Cameron failed: scything the Tory Right for a generation. Goodbye Corbyn. Hello soft Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407

    Mr. kle4, nothing wrong with getting credit for getting a prediction right, especially when most disagree with it.

    .

    Wouldn't know - I'm so rarely right.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2017
    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.
  • rkrkrk said:

    justin124 said:

    I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke.

    My sense is general public wont care about a broken semi commitment to serve a full term.
    But whilst we on here get excited about an election... Most people don't like them... 'too much politics right now' might sum up a lot of people's views after this, Brexit, GE 2015, Sindy etc...

    No idea what that means - other than probably low turnout?
    I suspect an unprecedentedly massive differential turnout this time. Tories, UKIP and LDs all majorly up for it. Labour very half hearted. Look at absolute vote numbers rather than shares - Labour will get a new low for recent times.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    Lord Falconer on Sky News angry that an election is happening. Doesn't seem like the right approach to me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    bobajobPB said:

    Yep - today is a good day. And I won't have to stay up late on 8th June either. That'll be a GE night first for me.

    Agreed. Early to bed on June 8 and a very good day today for those wanting a soft/EEA Brexit. In many ways, May is trying to complete the job at which Cameron failed: scything the Tory Right for a generation. Goodbye Corbyn. Hello soft Brexit.
    What, no "mile wide, inch deep" comment? :p
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    In contrast to @Y0kel, I'm expecting a Conservative majority well into three figures. I keep asking myself the question who ultimately is going to go out and vote for Labour as led by Jeremy Corbyn, and only the most diligent tribalists spring to mind.

    Agreed 150 Conservative majority looks nailed on.Many Labour voters will not turn out .Just as many Conservative voters did not in 2001.

    Yep - I agree. I'll be staying at home or voting LibDem. Haven't decided which yet.

    Shocking. Vote for the movement, not the man.
    You and Southam are both Labourites who want Corbyn gone. The best way of achieving that is by Labour getting annihilated. So this is an election when sensible Labourites, like you two, could morally justify a "tactical abstention", to assist Jezbollah out of the door.
    They might want Corbyn gone but do they want a massacre at the GE for moderate Labour MPs that might not be recoverable from ? Many wanted Blair clipped in 2005 after Iraq and the public somehow achieved that.How you get a result that leaves a viable opposition in the aftermath is hard to fathom.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    SeanT said:

    You and Southam are both Labourites who want Corbyn gone. The best way of achieving that is by Labour getting annihilated. So this is an election when sensible Labourites, like you two, could morally justify a "tactical abstention", to assist Jezbollah out of the door.

    I want a Labour government. I want Labour councils locally. I want to build our (locally to me) 2015 momentum in the 2019 locals. Jez is finished and his lunatic fringe with him whether we get a Tory majority of 50 or 150, so my duty to my party and to the movement I have been part of since I was 14 is to get out and deliver (and write) leaflets and organise and door knock and say whatever my professional negotiator brain can generate to persuade people to come out and vote Labour.

    That we absolutely will NOT win is the best argument I have. You don't need to worry about Jeremy defending us against Kim Jong-Un, but you do need to worry about the next Labour leader having enough MPs to defend you against hard brexit and sadistic austerity and the destruction of local council services.

    So vote Labour knowing Jeremy will be gone in 8 weeks and that we need to stop MayBe changing her mind again as she has on having an election.

    You should have thought about your love for the movement when you handed the hard right their biggest victory in a generation by campaigning for crude nationalism in the EU referendum.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rkrkrk said:

    justin124 said:

    I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke.

    My sense is general public wont care about a broken semi commitment to serve a full term.
    But whilst we on here get excited about an election... Most people don't like them... 'too much politics right now' might sum up a lot of people's views after this, Brexit, GE 2015, Sindy etc...

    No idea what that means - other than probably low turnout?
    But I think much of May's popularity stemmed from the sense that she was different and straight forward. That perception will have been shattered , and the polling impact will be interesting!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    She won't be able to do her submarine act for the whole campaign. Who will be fronting for the Tories? Boris?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    You and Southam are both Labourites who want Corbyn gone. The best way of achieving that is by Labour getting annihilated. So this is an election when sensible Labourites, like you two, could morally justify a "tactical abstention", to assist Jezbollah out of the door.

    I want a Labour government. I want Labour councils locally. I want to build our (locally to me) 2015 momentum in the 2019 locals. Jez is finished and his lunatic fringe with him whether we get a Tory majority of 50 or 150, so my duty to my party and to the movement I have been part of since I was 14 is to get out and deliver (and write) leaflets and organise and door knock and say whatever my professional negotiator brain can generate to persuade people to come out and vote Labour.

    That we absolutely will NOT win is the best argument I have. You don't need to worry about Jeremy defending us against Kim Jong-Un, but you do need to worry about the next Labour leader having enough MPs to defend you against hard brexit and sadistic austerity and the destruction of local council services.

    So vote Labour knowing Jeremy will be gone in 8 weeks and that we need to stop MayBe changing her mind again as she has on having an election.

    I would never advise you to quit a movement that means so much to you, but I have to comment that you bear no duty to a movement if it moves away from you, or the party attached to that movement becomes untenable. I don't think it is, and you seem confident Corbyn will be gone and they can become more effective again, but it is a political party, not a religion, you owe no duty if it, at some point, fails to serve your interests and the interests of wider society.
    And most Labour MPs voted in favour of hard Brexit, anyway.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2017

    RobD said:

    twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/854328227053096962

    Shocking that you posted a story that says things are looking better for the UK. :p
    That basically says that May needs more domestic strength in order to do what the EU asks of her. It's good for the UK economy, but not good for the promise of 'taking back control'.
    Now I am more or less clear why she called the election. It had nothing to do with election expenses.

    It is to do with the Brexit divorce payments. Once, the election is out of the way, the head-bangers can say whatever they want , she will be in a position to settle the bill. I also think the cabinet will look different.

    She has understood that the negotiations will go nowhere without settling the divorce bill first. Tory donors are crying out for a soft brexit. But she would still need a good majority. Even if she does not, Labour and the Lib Dems will help her out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. StClare, unsurprising. She has massive party and personal polling leads. Why take a risk?

    Mr. kle4, could be worse. You could've written twenty odd betting blogs and offered bad tips on three-quarters of them. Or "The 2016 F1 season", as I like to call it :p
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    Now that is being frit - I know Corbyn can hold his own in a debate, but you'd think she'd welcome the opportunity to pin him down in a debate
  • G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    What? We are to be denied the joy of watching Jezza explaining his IRA chums on live telly or having to think on his feet? We woz robbed. The best moment of the last GE was Milband saying 'No. I don't think we overspent' and the audience's gasp. I want my gasps!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/854328227053096962

    Shocking that you posted a story that says things are looking better for the UK. :p
    That basically says that May needs more domestic strength in order to do what the EU asks of her. It's good for the UK economy, but not good for the promise of 'taking back control'.
    Now I am more or less clear why she called the election. It had nothing to do with election expenses.

    It is to do with the Brexit divorce payments. Once, the election is out of the way, the head-bangers can say whatever they want , she will be in a position to settle the bill. I also think the cabinet will look different.

    She has understood that the negotiations will go nowhere without settling the divorce bill first. Tory donors are crying out for a soft brexit. But she would still need a good majority. Even if she does not, Labour and the Lib Dems will help her out.
    She will however need to withstand weeks of Andrew Neil and others putting exactly those points to her.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    justin124 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    justin124 said:

    I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke.

    My sense is general public wont care about a broken semi commitment to serve a full term.
    But whilst we on here get excited about an election... Most people don't like them... 'too much politics right now' might sum up a lot of people's views after this, Brexit, GE 2015, Sindy etc...

    No idea what that means - other than probably low turnout?
    But I think much of May's popularity stemmed from the sense that she was different and straight forward. That perception will have been shattered , and the polling impact will be interesting!
    What do you predict?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    Please tell me Corbyn hasn't ruled out doing them? I've just ordered a deluxe popcorn making machine from Amazon!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Patrick said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    What? We are to be denied the joy of watching Jezza explaining his IRA chums on live telly or having to think on his feet? We woz robbed. The best moment of the last GE was Milband saying 'No. I don't think we overspent' and the audience's gasp. I want my gasps!
    Submarine May resets to dive? During a GE that will be interesting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Patrick said:

    rkrkrk said:

    justin124 said:

    I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke.

    My sense is general public wont care about a broken semi commitment to serve a full term.
    But whilst we on here get excited about an election... Most people don't like them... 'too much politics right now' might sum up a lot of people's views after this, Brexit, GE 2015, Sindy etc...

    No idea what that means - other than probably low turnout?
    I suspect an unprecedentedly massive differential turnout this time. Tories, UKIP and LDs all majorly up for it. Labour very half hearted. Look at absolute vote numbers rather than shares - Labour will get a new low for recent times.
    Looks about right. The unknown is whether those who are normally signed up members of the Can't Be Arsed Party but came out for Brexit will vote again or not.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    It might not be boring if the LDs threaten to overtake Labour in the popular vote during the course of the campaign.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    kle4 said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    Now that is being frit - I know Corbyn can hold his own in a debate, but you'd think she'd welcome the opportunity to pin him down in a debate
    No, it's called being "miles ahead in the polls"
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    There was discussion on here a couple of weeks ago about Bercow going in 2017 and a new speaker being put in place. I presume thats a much more realistic prospect now isnt it?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    "Pound shop Gordon Brown" ducks out of TV debates...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    I wonder when uncle lynton and co were hired? They said they wouldn't do it again, so I presume Tessie didn't just phone them from the top of mount Snowdon and they said yes. I guess they needed some time to be "persauded".
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Sean_F said:


    WRT the Lib Dems, if they were to hit 24%, I expect they'd knock Labour into third place, in terms of vote share.

    That would be an incredible result. I think 20% is probably their maximum realistic vote share though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:

    "Pound shop Gordon Brown" ducks out of TV debates...

    But not an election, and isn't that what really matters? :p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    I wonder when uncle lynton and co were hired? They said they wouldn't do it again, so I presume Tessie didn't just phone them from the top of mount Snowdon and they said yes. I guess they needed some time to be "persauded".

    I believe they have been hired.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    She won't be able to do her submarine act for the whole campaign. Who will be fronting for the Tories? Boris?
    I think you are becoming more unhinged than ever. :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    I wonder when uncle lynton and co were hired? They said they wouldn't do it again, so I presume Tessie didn't just phone them from the top of mount Snowdon and they said yes. I guess they needed some time to be "persauded".

    I believe they have been hired.
    Yes I know...That was my point when were they hired? Have they already been busy polling and setting things up?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    On debates, there was a QT special back in 2005 (before the leaders' debates first came into being due to Brown being behind in the polls). I'd be surprised if we didn't get that.

    If we do, I wonder if they'll hold it in Leeds again.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    I wonder when uncle lynton and co were hired? They said they wouldn't do it again, so I presume Tessie didn't just phone them from the top of mount Snowdon and they said yes. I guess they needed some time to be "persauded".

    I believe they have been hired.
    Yes I know...That was my point when were they hired?
    Oops, sorry. I misread your post.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Labour REALLY had to face an election with Corbyn as leader. The party needed to face the consequences of its actions. If they thought they could just try him out and then dump him before an election in 2020 - more fool them.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    kle4 said:

    surbiton said:

    Some on here seem confident LDs will win back seats from tories in the SW

    St Ives needs ~2.5% swing, Torbay 3.4%, Yeovil 4.7%, all the other Cornwall, Devon and Somerset seats are >5% and all will have lost incumbency "bonus".

    Can't see it unless every last Remainer votes LD. Surely a lot of ex-kippers will go blue to cancel this out.

    SW London looks more fertile I would have thought.

    Con maj 80-90 I reckon

    Bit surprised. The PB Tories are talking their majority down. They are in 150 territory.
    Not appearing overconfident might be important for the Tories in a few contests. Appearing gloating might put people off.

    150 maj implies 80-odd gains off Labour, will surely lose a few to LDs.

    80 seats off labour means winning the likes of Bassetlaw and Huddersfield.

    Not going to happen
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited April 2017

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    I think it's unlikely there will be any TV debates as the news channels and political parties won't have even started discussing how much time is allocated to each party, what format will the debates take, which channel get which debate, etc.

    Remember to get the 2015 TV debates together we had months and months of wrangling, court cases, threats of more court cases, etc.

    And in the end it went down to the very last possible moment before a format was agreed.

    Very difficult to see how the media companies can do debates with less than seven weeks notice.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    timmo said:

    There was discussion on here a couple of weeks ago about Bercow going in 2017 and a new speaker being put in place. I presume thats a much more realistic prospect now isnt it?

    Mogg for Speaker!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    It's normally the wrong thing to do but I think backing Sir Keir Starmer at ~ 6-1 makes sense as the timeframe for the next Labour leadership election has moved significantly to the left today.

    Who else can it be ?
  • The Mirror have a voodoo poll asking who people will vote for at the election:

    Con 34%, Lab 31%, LD 26%!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Just ridiculously close

    @amlivemon 14s14 seconds ago
    More
    Last poll from us in France:

    Fillon 22%
    Le Pen 21.5%
    Macron 21%
    Melenchon 19%

    3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille

    It seems more and more likely that it'll be Fillon v Le Pen with Macron's voters failing to materialise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    Patrick said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    What? We are to be denied the joy of watching Jezza explaining his IRA chums on live telly or having to think on his feet? We woz robbed. The best moment of the last GE was Milband saying 'No. I don't think we overspent' and the audience's gasp. I want my gasps!
    Good moment. I loved the post-mortem on the whole affair, as it revealed the prepared answer was the same basic point but better framed - by putting the explanation ahead of 'and that's why I think we didn't', with the presumed intention of stopping a gasp at a bold, flat 'no'.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Pulpstar said:

    It's normally the wrong thing to do but I think backing Sir Keir Starmer at ~ 6-1 makes sense as the timeframe for the next Labour leadership election has moved significantly to the left today.

    Who else can it be ?

    Labour members are the electorate.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Jason said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    Please tell me Corbyn hasn't ruled out doing them? I've just ordered a deluxe popcorn making machine from Amazon!
    :lol: - You will still have the pleasure of hearing Jeremy – via his spokesperson Diane Abbott.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017

    The Mirror have a voodoo poll asking who people will vote for at the election:

    Con 34%, Lab 31%, LD 26%!

    Shouldn't a mirror poll of readers show a Putin-esque level of support for labour?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    kle4 said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    Now that is being frit - I know Corbyn can hold his own in a debate, but you'd think she'd welcome the opportunity to pin him down in a debate
    Of course she's frit. She's also very sensible. Blair turned down debates in 1997 and 2001 on the same sensible basis that you don't risk a big lead on a debate, even when you're LotO, never mind as PM.

    Besides, it's very late in the day now. Getting agreement on debate format would be difficult after all the shenanigans last time on who should be in and who shouldn't. LDs, UKIP and SNP are all now effectively joint third, so to exclude any one of them would be to invite a legal challenge. But include SNP and that raises a question about Plaid. UKIP's zero MPs (or one, if you go by the last election), brings the Greens into play.

    For the Tories, expect a thoroughly boring, safety-first election campaign. When you're 4-0 up with 20 minutes to go, you don't play 4-2-4. Let the opposition attack and then exploit the space as their formation and discipline goes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,407
    edited April 2017

    The Mirror have a voodoo poll asking who people will vote for at the election:

    Con 34%, Lab 31%, LD 26%!

    That would be hilarious. Imagine if the NEV from the locals seems to bear that out, May would look pretty stupid then.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    The Mirror have a voodoo poll asking who people will vote for at the election:

    Con 34%, Lab 31%, LD 26%!

    That's bad for Labour among Mirror readers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Just had a lovely relaxing day on the Honeybourne line.

    Did I miss anything important?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Doethur, yes.

    Force India's co-owner has been arrested: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39627135
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    ydoethur said:

    Just had a lovely relaxing day on the Honeybourne line.

    Did I miss anything important?

    Only TSE's AV thread.... :D
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    ydoethur said:

    Just had a lovely relaxing day on the Honeybourne line.

    Did I miss anything important?

    Nope.
This discussion has been closed.