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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Was this the reason for TMay’s election decision?

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Brain trust.

    Has there ever been an election where the leader has resigned, fallen ill or otherwise not been able to complete the campaign?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2017
    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    Remember her first move as PM was ejecting all Cameroon's from top jobs.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Scott_P said:

    "Pound shop Gordon Brown" ducks out of TV debates...

    I suspect Corbyn would do well in debates. Starts from a low base and many of his policies are very popular. Plus while the mudslinging stuff is effective - i think it's awkward to do in person.

    TM strategy will probably be to say and do as little as possible that is new and just endlessly repeat that the country needs stability for seven weeks.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Patrick said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    What? We are to be denied the joy of watching Jezza explaining his IRA chums on live telly or having to think on his feet? We woz robbed. The best moment of the last GE was Milband saying 'No. I don't think we overspent' and the audience's gasp. I want my gasps!
    Yes to true the only bit of excitement in a foregone conclusion and they deprive of us of that.Because they say she is to far ahead in the polls .
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815
    Jonathan said:

    Brain trust.

    Has there ever been an election where the leader has resigned, fallen ill or otherwise not been able to complete the campaign?

    William Hague came close to being killed in the 2001 campaign and Farage nearly died on election day 2010.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    It's definitely in her interest to avoid the debates. The accusations of being frit are not that damaging compared to any 'cleggmania' type event occurring in them.

    If the broadcasters had the guts, they would organise debates, invite the candidates, and if May doesn't turn up, empty chair her. If they do it outside the official campaign period they should have more leeway on how they go about it.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Gin, what was the Hague incident? I recall Farage's plane crash.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    I'm quite out-of-touch with British politics lately but if this is right:
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/854338691434774529

    ...are they all going to manage to show up and vote for the election? Everyone's talking like this is a done deal but are we sure the government have the numbers?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Never seen Corbyn as happy as he just was on Sky News.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    How long before some Brexiteer accuses May of holding this election, intending to lose, to frustrate Brexit? A sleeper remain agent if you will?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    She seems quite cold and not particularly personable.
    She's not one of those people with believe you have to be constantly emoting to "show you care" - in her book, actions speak much louder than words. In person she's funny with a dry slightly wicked sense of humour.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    rkrkrk said:

    How long before some Brexiteer accuses May of holding this election, intending to lose, to frustrate Brexit? A sleeper remain agent if you will?

    She could have picked a better time if she wanted to lose.
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    AndyJS said:

    Never seen Corbyn as happy as he just was on Sky News.

    Relief that he knows the nightmare of his own leadership will soon be over?
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    FangsyFangsy Posts: 28
    Dissolution expected on night of 3/4 May. Anybody any clearer about Gorton? Thought not...
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    AndyJS said:

    Never seen Corbyn as happy as he just was on Sky News.

    Demob happy. in 8 weeks he can be off cycling around europe with Diane without a care in the road.
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    FangsyFangsy Posts: 28
    Sorry - 2/3 May
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Pulpstar said:

    It's normally the wrong thing to do but I think backing Sir Keir Starmer at ~ 6-1 makes sense as the timeframe for the next Labour leadership election has moved significantly to the left today.

    Who else can it be ?

    Nandy?

    Balls if he stands in June? (desperately short notice though, probably booked up for months ahead giving speeches etc). Odds = 51 last time I looked.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Fangsy, read somewhere, on that basis, it'll be called off. Welcome to pb.com, by the way.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Fangsy said:

    Dissolution expected on night of 3/4 May. Anybody any clearer about Gorton? Thought not...

    I believe it's expected May 2, 3rd at the latest.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    She seems quite cold and not particularly personable.
    She's not one of those people with believe you have to be constantly emoting to "show you care" - in her book, actions speak much louder than words. In person she's funny with a dry slightly wicked sense of humour.
    And, of course, a proven liar !
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,058
    RobD said:
    Brexit is a political process which consists of power being removed from the United Kingdom. The economy is only at risk if the UK decides to fight the process.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    She seems quite cold and not particularly personable.
    She's not one of those people with believe you have to be constantly emoting to "show you care" - in her book, actions speak much louder than words. In person she's funny with a dry slightly wicked sense of humour.
    And, of course, a proven liar !
    Or she changed her mind?
  • Options
    FangsyFangsy Posts: 28

    Mr. Fangsy, read somewhere, on that basis, it'll be called off. Welcome to pb.com, by the way.

    Thanks Morris - I've been around for yonks, as it happens, but I generally just lurk and bet accordingly...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Just ridiculously close

    @amlivemon 14s14 seconds ago
    More
    Last poll from us in France:

    Fillon 22%
    Le Pen 21.5%
    Macron 21%
    Melenchon 19%

    3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille

    It seems more and more likely that it'll be Fillon v Le Pen with Macron's voters failing to materialise.
    Not updated to

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

    Betfair to go bananas when it is I think.
  • Options
    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    Anyone who uses the teeth-clenching hell phrase that is "you okay hun?" should be banished to ConservativeHome for several weeks, long after the election is over. I would have expected better of you in particular Sean. Hang your cliched Cornish head in shame, misery and regret.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815
    edited April 2017

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    It's definitely in her interest to avoid the debates. The accusations of being frit are not that damaging compared to any 'cleggmania' type event occurring in them.

    If the broadcasters had the guts, they would organise debates, invite the candidates, and if May doesn't turn up, empty chair her. If they do it outside the official campaign period they should have more leeway on how they go about it.
    Er, we've only got seven weeks until polling day? All it will take is for one political party to be dis-satisfied with the time they are allocated or the format of one debates and go to court and the whole thing will be over before its started.

    Debates are are a non-starter in this election. They aren't going to happen.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    Scott_P said:
    MPs reluctant to face the electorate because they're worried they'll lose is never a good look..
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    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    edited April 2017

    kle4 said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    Now that is being frit - I know Corbyn can hold his own in a debate, but you'd think she'd welcome the opportunity to pin him down in a debate
    Of course she's frit. She's also very sensible. Blair turned down debates in 1997 and 2001 on the same sensible basis that you don't risk a big lead on a debate, even when you're LotO, never mind as PM.

    Besides, it's very late in the day now. Getting agreement on debate format would be difficult after all the shenanigans last time on who should be in and who shouldn't. LDs, UKIP and SNP are all now effectively joint third, so to exclude any one of them would be to invite a legal challenge. But include SNP and that raises a question about Plaid. UKIP's zero MPs (or one, if you go by the last election), brings the Greens into play.

    For the Tories, expect a thoroughly boring, safety-first election campaign. When you're 4-0 up with 20 minutes to go, you don't play 4-2-4. Let the opposition attack and then exploit the space as their formation and discipline goes.
    The Tories can't play it *too* safe, though. They have to fire up enough people in the Midlands and winnable parts of the NE / NW to capitalise on this opportunity. North of the Watford Gap the GOTV effort will be critical. This, I guess, is why having Sir Lynton on board is in turn so critical.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    bobajobPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Never seen Corbyn as happy as he just was on Sky News.

    Relief that he knows the nightmare of his own leadership will soon be over?
    Do not be daft. He knows that in several weeks he will be the PM who ground the Tory Scum under his heel, vanquishing them forever and ushering in the 1,000 reign of Momentum.
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    I don't think any sensible PM would turn down an open goal at a general election, which is exactly what the Tories have presented to them. She is Brown-esque in some ways, but her masterstroke was embracing Brexit, unequivocally, after the result. Corbyn and Labour did not do that, and still don't.

    I usually dread general elections, especially the last two when none of us were really certain of the result. Not this time. I say with absolute certainty that there is nothing on this planet that could propel Jeremy Corbyn to Downing Street. Gary Glitter has a better chance of being PM than he does.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    bobajobPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Never seen Corbyn as happy as he just was on Sky News.

    Relief that he knows the nightmare of his own leadership will soon be over?
    Do not be daft. He knows that in several weeks he will be the PM who ground the Tory Scum under his heel, vanquishing them forever and ushering in the 1,000 reign of Momentum.
    And in response we'll set up a thousand year PB Tory reich in exile. :p
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    When the GE was called the right-wingers on Twitter were celebrating.

    I think they are missing the point.

    I reckon May has calculated - deviously and shrewdly like you say - that a manifesto based on negotiating a 'good deal' for Britain, could bring her a 100-majority of new MPs and a mandate to tell the Kippers and Tory agitating right-wingers to shut it.

    May was a fully-paid-up Cameroon for ten years. She knows the Hard Brexiters in the party aren't popular. She coined the term 'the nasty party'. She's no Hard Brexiteer.

    I suspect the right wingers are in for a nasty surprise post-election.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    I have No idea why labour might have a problem in the midlands...Within seconds of start of interview with labour nuneaton PPC he was banging on about CO2 emissions.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mrs C, I fear you've enjoyed one whisky too many :p
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815

    Mr. Gin, what was the Hague incident? I recall Farage's plane crash.

    I believe he and the lovely Ffion were within seconds of being killed in a helicopter crash?
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    It's definitely in her interest to avoid the debates. The accusations of being frit are not that damaging compared to any 'cleggmania' type event occurring in them.

    If the broadcasters had the guts, they would organise debates, invite the candidates, and if May doesn't turn up, empty chair her. If they do it outside the official campaign period they should have more leeway on how they go about it.
    Not sure if the wackier and just plain wronger theory of the day so far is Cleggmania therefore Corbynmania, or that May's actions today mark her as a Gordon Brown lookalike.

    And would you seriously fancy Corbyn's chances against an empty chair?
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Just ridiculously close

    @amlivemon 14s14 seconds ago
    More
    Last poll from us in France:

    Fillon 22%
    Le Pen 21.5%
    Macron 21%
    Melenchon 19%

    3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille

    It seems more and more likely that it'll be Fillon v Le Pen with Macron's voters failing to materialise.
    Not updated to

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

    Betfair to go bananas when it is I think.
    3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille

    Not a nationwide poll...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    RobD said:

    Fangsy said:

    Dissolution expected on night of 3/4 May. Anybody any clearer about Gorton? Thought not...

    I believe it's expected May 2, 3rd at the latest.
    I believe legally it will be one minute past midnight on May 3.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    kle4 said:

    The Mirror have a voodoo poll asking who people will vote for at the election:

    Con 34%, Lab 31%, LD 26%!

    That would be hilarious. Imagine if the NEV from the locals seems to bear that out, May would look pretty stupid then.
    You're missing the point, which is that Mirror readers, of all people, are putting Con ahead in a voodoo poll, with LDs chasing Lab for 2nd.

    Compare with this YouGov survey of readers' attitudes, from 2015:

    But it’s only fair to point out that 9% of the Labour-supporting Daily Mirror’s readers also voted for Ukip despite a big rise in its readers’ support for Labour (up from 59% to 67%). Again, however, the Lib Dem support slumped (down from 17% to 5%) while the previous support for the Tories, of 16%, fell to 11%.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2015/jun/08/newspaper-reader-election-ukip-express-sun-mail-telegraph
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231
    On topic - some obvious minimum targets for each party. These are what ok-ish results would look like. Anything less varies from a disappointment to a disaster.

    Conservatives - majority of over 50 (so c.340 seats) and 43% of the vote.

    Labour - 190 seats and 29% of the vote. They seem very unlikely to get this, but without knowing how colossal a pair of twats Corbyn and Macdonnell will make of themselves in the campaign it is hard to know just how low a floor to set. However, anything less will leave Corbyn's successor with an impossible task, so this has to be the absolute minimum goal.

    SNP - 53 seats. Realistically, their target for the popular vote is somewhat skewed because they are not standing nationally. Although it seems a tad unlikely they will get 50% in their own strength again, what they need is for the pro-independence parties to get over 50% so they can claim a mandate for their posturing about this referendum. That's a complicated position, but the big risk with this snap election is that it reenergises a campaign that apart from the usual suspects just had people pointing and laughing.

    Liberal Democrats - their target should be to retake third and get their vote into double digits. The latter is feasible, the former probably isn't unless Labour utterly implodes. 12 seats would be a good result, for 20 seats I would want to know what price Farron sold his sole for. 15% of the vote looks feasible.

    Plaid Cymru - if they fail to take Ynys Mon they will look like idiots. But actually Rhondda might be more vulnerable. 20% per candidate would be impressive but is the upper end of what they'll get.

    For UKIP - any seat of any sort and 5% of the national vote would be some result.

    For the Greens - holding their current seat. They may well not do so if Corbyn siphons off their vote. 2% of the vote nationally is probably their best bet.

    For the DUP - largest party in Northern Ireland.

    For Sinn Fein - displacing the DUP.

    For the other NI - a seat each.

    Obviously, not all of those will happen. The party most vulnerable to fiasco is obviously Labour followed by the DUP (one positive would be that if they come second, Foster will be sacked and devolution can resume). It is however easy to imagine that the Conservatives and SNP will fall well short of the hype and have a lot of angry supporters on June 9th. The value for over performance looks to me to be the Liberal Democrats. They are a unionist remainer party (which might play well in large parts of Scotland) Farron is an effective campaigner and they look up for the fight, unlike the others. A 1992 style result should not be beyond them although unless Corbyn punches or swears at someone on campaign (which unfortunately seems all too possible) anything better is probably out of reach. A lot of those seats would be Tory - Eastbourne, Chichester, Bath might be vulnerable.

    Those are immediate thoughts. Any comments?
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited April 2017
    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    Now that is being frit - I know Corbyn can hold his own in a debate, but you'd think she'd welcome the opportunity to pin him down in a debate
    Of course she's frit. She's also very sensible. Blair turned down debates in 1997 and 2001 on the same sensible basis that you don't risk a big lead on a debate, even when you're LotO, never mind as PM.

    Besides, it's very late in the day now. Getting agreement on debate format would be difficult after all the shenanigans last time on who should be in and who shouldn't. LDs, UKIP and SNP are all now effectively joint third, so to exclude any one of them would be to invite a legal challenge. But include SNP and that raises a question about Plaid. UKIP's zero MPs (or one, if you go by the last election), brings the Greens into play.

    For the Tories, expect a thoroughly boring, safety-first election campaign. When you're 4-0 up with 20 minutes to go, you don't play 4-2-4. Let the opposition attack and then exploit the space as their formation and discipline goes.
    The Tories can't play it *too* safe, though. They have to fire up enough people in the Midlands and winnable parts of the NE / NW to capitalise on this opportunity. North of the Watford Gap the GOTV effort will be critical. This, I guess, is why having Sir Lynton on board is in turn so critical.
    Yup. Which is why the beasting of Jezza and McMao is going to be utterly vicious. Corbyn will have to pretend to be up for becoming PM and make the right noises. And the Tories will unleash all the festering shite in his history right back upon him. I'll bet my bottom dollar the Birmingham Pub Bombings and Corbyn's kind words for the IRA make an appearance. Jezza's going to be very, very happy when he gets trounced.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,081
    edited April 2017
    SeanT said:

    bobajobPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    Anyone who uses the teeth-clenching hell phrase that is "you okay hun?" should be banished to ConservativeHome for several weeks, long after the election is over. I would have expected better of you in particular Sean. Hang your cliched Cornish head in shame, misery and regret.
    Did you see the comment I was replying to? He's lucky he got a cliche out of me.
    Shocking that folk resort to low abuse..
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    RobD said:
    Brexit is a political process which consists of power being removed from the United Kingdom. The economy is only at risk if the UK decides to fight the process.
    It's the way you tell them.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Gin, ah, I have the vaguest of memories of hearing about that.

    Mr. Z, Corbyn would be thwarted by an empty snuffbox.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    Now that is being frit - I know Corbyn can hold his own in a debate, but you'd think she'd welcome the opportunity to pin him down in a debate
    Of course she's frit. She's also very sensible. Blair turned down debates in 1997 and 2001 on the same sensible basis that you don't risk a big lead on a debate, even when you're LotO, never mind as PM.

    Besides, it's very late in the day now. Getting agreement on debate format would be difficult after all the shenanigans last time on who should be in and who shouldn't. LDs, UKIP and SNP are all now effectively joint third, so to exclude any one of them would be to invite a legal challenge. But include SNP and that raises a question about Plaid. UKIP's zero MPs (or one, if you go by the last election), brings the Greens into play.

    For the Tories, expect a thoroughly boring, safety-first election campaign. When you're 4-0 up with 20 minutes to go, you don't play 4-2-4. Let the opposition attack and then exploit the space as their formation and discipline goes.
    The Tories can't play it *too* safe, though. They have to fire up enough people in the Midlands and winnable parts of the NE / NW to capitalise on this opportunity. North of the Watford Gap the GOTV effort will be critical. This, I guess, is why having Sir Lynton on board is in turn so critical.
    I'd work on the assumption that Corbyn will do that for them. No need to go too hard on him proactively. Just wait for the media to ask him about the IRA, or for him to lose his rag, or flounder over how his policies don't add up. Then publicise it.

    And against that, run on the same Brexit program May's been outlining for months.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Just ridiculously close

    @amlivemon 14s14 seconds ago
    More
    Last poll from us in France:

    Fillon 22%
    Le Pen 21.5%
    Macron 21%
    Melenchon 19%

    3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille

    It seems more and more likely that it'll be Fillon v Le Pen with Macron's voters failing to materialise.
    Not updated to

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

    Betfair to go bananas when it is I think.
    Assuming it's a proper poll, that stuff about the cities where it was conducted looks a bit weird.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Just ridiculously close

    @amlivemon 14s14 seconds ago
    More
    Last poll from us in France:

    Fillon 22%
    Le Pen 21.5%
    Macron 21%
    Melenchon 19%

    3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille

    It seems more and more likely that it'll be Fillon v Le Pen with Macron's voters failing to materialise.
    Not updated to

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

    Betfair to go bananas when it is I think.
    3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille

    Not a nationwide poll...
    Just checked his twitter, he's an out and out Fillon ramper.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815
    edited April 2017
    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    Now that is being frit - I know Corbyn can hold his own in a debate, but you'd think she'd welcome the opportunity to pin him down in a debate
    Of course she's frit. She's also very sensible. Blair turned down debates in 1997 and 2001 on the same sensible basis that you don't risk a big lead on a debate, even when you're LotO, never mind as PM.

    Besides, it's very late in the day now. Getting agreement on debate format would be difficult after all the shenanigans last time on who should be in and who shouldn't. LDs, UKIP and SNP are all now effectively joint third, so to exclude any one of them would be to invite a legal challenge. But include SNP and that raises a question about Plaid. UKIP's zero MPs (or one, if you go by the last election), brings the Greens into play.

    For the Tories, expect a thoroughly boring, safety-first election campaign. When you're 4-0 up with 20 minutes to go, you don't play 4-2-4. Let the opposition attack and then exploit the space as their formation and discipline goes.
    The Tories can't play it *too* safe, though. They have to fire up enough people in the Midlands and winnable parts of the NE / NW to capitalise on this opportunity. North of the Watford Gap the GOTV effort will be critical. This, I guess, is why having Sir Lynton on board is in turn so critical.
    Expect billboards of Jezza in the pocket of the IRA, Hezbollah and Hamas across the country any day now... ;)
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2017

    Mrs C, I fear you've enjoyed one whisky too many :p

    I never touch the stuff Mr Dancer. White Zinfandel or Pinot Grigio OTOH ;)
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    kle4 said:

    The Mirror have a voodoo poll asking who people will vote for at the election:

    Con 34%, Lab 31%, LD 26%!

    That would be hilarious. Imagine if the NEV from the locals seems to bear that out, May would look pretty stupid then.
    You're missing the point, which is that Mirror readers, of all people, are putting Con ahead in a voodoo poll, with LDs chasing Lab for 2nd.

    Compare with this YouGov survey of readers' attitudes, from 2015:

    But it’s only fair to point out that 9% of the Labour-supporting Daily Mirror’s readers also voted for Ukip despite a big rise in its readers’ support for Labour (up from 59% to 67%). Again, however, the Lib Dem support slumped (down from 17% to 5%) while the previous support for the Tories, of 16%, fell to 11%.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2015/jun/08/newspaper-reader-election-ukip-express-sun-mail-telegraph
    In the Mirror poll LibDems have already achieved crossover with Labour. I doubt it will be quite so quick in the real campaign.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Simon Hughes is to stand again in Bermondsey and Nick Clegg to restand in Hallam
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    GIN1138 said:

    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    Now that is being frit - I know Corbyn can hold his own in a debate, but you'd think she'd welcome the opportunity to pin him down in a debate
    Of course she's frit. She's also very sensible. Blair turned down debates in 1997 and 2001 on the same sensible basis that you don't risk a big lead on a debate, even when you're LotO, never mind as PM.

    Besides, it's very late in the day now. Getting agreement on debate format would be difficult after all the shenanigans last time on who should be in and who shouldn't. LDs, UKIP and SNP are all now effectively joint third, so to exclude any one of them would be to invite a legal challenge. But include SNP and that raises a question about Plaid. UKIP's zero MPs (or one, if you go by the last election), brings the Greens into play.

    For the Tories, expect a thoroughly boring, safety-first election campaign. When you're 4-0 up with 20 minutes to go, you don't play 4-2-4. Let the opposition attack and then exploit the space as their formation and discipline goes.
    The Tories can't play it *too* safe, though. They have to fire up enough people in the Midlands and winnable parts of the NE / NW to capitalise on this opportunity. North of the Watford Gap the GOTV effort will be critical. This, I guess, is why having Sir Lynton on board is in turn so critical.
    Expect billboards of Jezza in the pocket of the IRA, Hezbollah and Hamas across the country any day now... ;)
    Would be shocked if Tories don't plaster Facebook with them.
  • Options
    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Mrs C, I fear you've enjoyed one whisky too many :p

    I think that should be "whiskey"?
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RobD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    Never seen Corbyn as happy as he just was on Sky News.

    Relief that he knows the nightmare of his own leadership will soon be over?
    Do not be daft. He knows that in several weeks he will be the PM who ground the Tory Scum under his heel, vanquishing them forever and ushering in the 1,000 reign of Momentum.
    And in response we'll set up a thousand year PB Tory reich in exile. :p
    Who gets the job of Minister of Propaganda?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,058
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:
    Brexit is a political process which consists of power being removed from the United Kingdom. The economy is only at risk if the UK decides to fight the process.
    It's the way you tell them.
    Historian and wife of former Polish FM:

    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/854328106966016000
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sir Michael Fallon lying in a pleasing tone on the Beeb. Not quite up to the PM's standard but close.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,927
    edited April 2017
    Can I get my 2015 money back on Thurrock? (the best value loser I think I have had on politics)

    Less than 1000 votes between Conservatives in 1st and UKIP in 3rd. The Tory MP then campaigned for Remain, ludicrously unfriendly to Corbyn I would imagine. Probably one of the few seats UKIP have any chance in

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thurrock_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    It's definitely in her interest to avoid the debates. The accusations of being frit are not that damaging compared to any 'cleggmania' type event occurring in them.

    If the broadcasters had the guts, they would organise debates, invite the candidates, and if May doesn't turn up, empty chair her. If they do it outside the official campaign period they should have more leeway on how they go about it.
    Er, we've only got seven weeks until polling day? All it will take is for one political party to be dis-satisfied with the time they are allocated or the format of one debates and go to court and the whole thing will be over before its started.

    Debates are are a non-starter in this election. They aren't going to happen.
    If a debate happened outside of campaign time there is no grounds for court action by any party? I would expect any major broadcaster to be able to rustle up a proposed debate format pretty quickly.

    A 7 way debate like last time wouldn't invite court cases anyway. But you're right, they won't happen. Which is a shame, they have been a welcome addition to election campaigns.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Just had a lovely relaxing day on the Honeybourne line.

    Did I miss anything important?

    Only TSE's AV thread.... :D
    So from every point of view today was the right day to channel my inner @Sunil_Prasannan ?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2017
    BBC groupthink from all the presenters - public voter fatigue + EU hold all the cards so irrevelant.

    Amazing how they know this given GE only announced a few hours ago.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    isam said:

    Can I get my 2015 money back on Thurrock? (the best value loser I think I have had on politics)

    Less than 1000 votes between Conservatives in 1st and UKIP in 3rd. The Tory MP then campaigned for Remain. Probably one of the few seats UKIP have any chance in

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thurrock_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    I wonder whether Labour might come third in Thurrock this time.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Rex, I did consider that, but as I (on the very rare occasions I have a drink) tend to have had Scottish I go for their spelling.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Jason said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    I don't think any sensible PM would turn down an open goal at a general election, which is exactly what the Tories have presented to them. She is Brown-esque in some ways, but her masterstroke was embracing Brexit, unequivocally, after the result. Corbyn and Labour did not do that, and still don't.

    I usually dread general elections, especially the last two when none of us were really certain of the result. Not this time. I say with absolute certainty that there is nothing on this planet that could propel Jeremy Corbyn to Downing Street. Gary Glitter has a better chance of being PM than he does.
    True they never play his records on the radio even if they are reviewing the early seventies.He was massive then with many number 1s obliterated from history like Corbyn will be.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815

    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    It's definitely in her interest to avoid the debates. The accusations of being frit are not that damaging compared to any 'cleggmania' type event occurring in them.

    If the broadcasters had the guts, they would organise debates, invite the candidates, and if May doesn't turn up, empty chair her. If they do it outside the official campaign period they should have more leeway on how they go about it.
    Er, we've only got seven weeks until polling day? All it will take is for one political party to be dis-satisfied with the time they are allocated or the format of one debates and go to court and the whole thing will be over before its started.

    Debates are are a non-starter in this election. They aren't going to happen.
    If a debate happened outside of campaign time there is no grounds for court action by any party? I would expect any major broadcaster to be able to rustle up a proposed debate format pretty quickly.

    A 7 way debate like last time wouldn't invite court cases anyway. But you're right, they won't happen. Which is a shame, they have been a welcome addition to election campaigns.
    I think they'll be back for the next one in 2021 or 2022. It's just this "snap" election that makes them a non-starter.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653

    Rupert Myers‏ @RupertMyers
    It's a sign of Theresa May's confidence, not weakness, that means she feels no need to debate Jeremy
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Simon Hughes is to stand again in Bermondsey and Nick Clegg to restand in Hallam

    Any news of Danny Alexander standing again?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    Lidlington comment on Gorton - looks like the "can't elect to a dissolved parliament" argument is not a firm rule, just a distant precedent:

    There is no statutory provision that provides for the cancellation of a by-election when a general election is in progress. it is up to the judgement of acting returning officer, whom one might expect to regard the by-election writ of having been superseded. This was the course of action taken by the acting returning officer in the one precedent that I’ve found which is dating back to November 1923.”
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    It's definitely in her interest to avoid the debates. The accusations of being frit are not that damaging compared to any 'cleggmania' type event occurring in them.

    If the broadcasters had the guts, they would organise debates, invite the candidates, and if May doesn't turn up, empty chair her. If they do it outside the official campaign period they should have more leeway on how they go about it.
    Er, we've only got seven weeks until polling day? All it will take is for one political party to be dis-satisfied with the time they are allocated or the format of one debates and go to court and the whole thing will be over before its started.

    Debates are are a non-starter in this election. They aren't going to happen.
    If a debate happened outside of campaign time there is no grounds for court action by any party? I would expect any major broadcaster to be able to rustle up a proposed debate format pretty quickly.

    A 7 way debate like last time wouldn't invite court cases anyway. But you're right, they won't happen. Which is a shame, they have been a welcome addition to election campaigns.
    There might be a case for court action given the imminence of the election campaign, and even if the case were thrown out, the time taken to hear it might push the debate date into the campaign proper.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Just ridiculously close

    @amlivemon 14s14 seconds ago
    More
    Last poll from us in France:

    Fillon 22%
    Le Pen 21.5%
    Macron 21%
    Melenchon 19%

    3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille

    It seems more and more likely that it'll be Fillon v Le Pen with Macron's voters failing to materialise.
    If it were to be Fillon v Le Pen it could well be President Le Pen which would effectively end the EU and leave nothing to Brexit from anyway, though it still looks unlikely
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited April 2017
    What will happen in Clacton?

    Will the ex UKIP MP Mr Carswell be allowed to fight as a Tory?

    If Mr Carswell fights the election, do we expect Mr Banks to be against him as promised?

    Who will be Tory in the leafy bits of London? Zac or a new candidate?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    IanB2 said:

    Lidlington comment on Gorton - looks like the "can't elect to a dissolved parliament" argument is not a firm rule, just a distant precedent:

    There is no statutory provision that provides for the cancellation of a by-election when a general election is in progress. it is up to the judgement of acting returning officer, whom one might expect to regard the by-election writ of having been superseded. This was the course of action taken by the acting returning officer in the one precedent that I’ve found which is dating back to November 1923.”

    The entire UK constitution is based on distant precedent :p Would be stupid to hold it two days after the parliament they are being elected to is dissolved.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:
    Brexit is a political process which consists of power being removed from the United Kingdom. The economy is only at risk if the UK decides to fight the process.
    It's the way you tell them.
    Historian and wife of former Polish FM:

    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/854328106966016000
    OK, that is conclusive.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Just ridiculously close

    @amlivemon 14s14 seconds ago
    More
    Last poll from us in France:

    Fillon 22%
    Le Pen 21.5%
    Macron 21%
    Melenchon 19%

    3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille

    It seems more and more likely that it'll be Fillon v Le Pen with Macron's voters failing to materialise.
    If it were to be Fillon v Le Pen it could well be President Le Pen which would effectively end the EU and leave nothing to Brexit from anyway, though it still looks unlikely
    Last time that happened Jospin's supporters supported Chirac with the pithy slogan 'vote for the crook not the fascist.'

    Could still work...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,995
    justin124 said:

    I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.
    Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision

    I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Just ridiculously close

    @amlivemon 14s14 seconds ago
    More
    Last poll from us in France:

    Fillon 22%
    Le Pen 21.5%
    Macron 21%
    Melenchon 19%

    3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille

    It seems more and more likely that it'll be Fillon v Le Pen with Macron's voters failing to materialise.
    Not updated to

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

    Betfair to go bananas when it is I think.
    3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille

    Not a nationwide poll...
    Just checked his twitter, he's an out and out Fillon ramper.
    No, he's not, IIRC. He tweets generally on politics and the only bias I've seen is pro-Israeli.

    But there is no link to any data or website in that "poll". Hmm. Caveat emptor
    The only French poll he has retweeted recently was the one most favourable to Fillon. He's also anti-Macron (Check his feed), and has retweeted ONLY FIllon's twitter output - none of the other candidates. He clearly wants Fillon to win.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    I'd work on the assumption that Corbyn will do that for them. No need to go too hard on him proactively. Just wait for the media to ask him about the IRA, or for him to lose his rag, or flounder over how his policies don't add up. Then publicise it.

    I half expect Corbyn to praise Kim Jong-un in some way shortly before the fat git nukes Seoul.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
  • Options

    Simon Hughes is to stand again in Bermondsey and Nick Clegg to restand in Hallam

    Any news of Danny Alexander standing again?
    Wonder if the Viscount will stand again. Jack W may know
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    Professor Tim Bale:

    Indeed, she’s not just going to win; she’s going to win big. Contrary to common wisdom, bookies don’t necessarily know better than opinion pollsters when it comes to predicting political events, but they know a racing certainty when they see one. Within minutes of the PM’s announcement, one national chain was giving odds of 2/9 on an overall majority for the Conservatives, with Labour out on 14/1.

    To those Corbynistas who think the public will warm to Jeremy and his policies once they see more of him: Not. Going. To. Happen. If the Labour leader and his team think they’ve had a raw deal from the media – and from the Tories – since he took over, they ain’t seen nothing yet. Even on a level playing field (and it won’t be one) they’d still stand no chance: they’re miles behind on the economy, serious difficulties in the NHS haven’t yet fed through electorally, and Labour is seen as neither trustworthy nor competent. Game over


    https://theconversation.com/snap-election-a-win-win-for-theresa-may-shell-crush-labour-and-make-brexit-a-little-easier-76362
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Simon Hughes is to stand again in Bermondsey and Nick Clegg to restand in Hallam

    I do feel that electing Simon Hughes would be a regressive backward step. He had 30 (?) years to make his impression on parliament.

    Time time move on.
  • Options
    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608

    Animal_pb said:

    kle4 said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    Now that is being frit - I know Corbyn can hold his own in a debate, but you'd think she'd welcome the opportunity to pin him down in a debate
    Of course she's frit. She's also very sensible. Blair turned down debates in 1997 and 2001 on the same sensible basis that you don't risk a big lead on a debate, even when you're LotO, never mind as PM.

    Besides, it's very late in the day now. Getting agreement on debate format would be difficult after all the shenanigans last time on who should be in and who shouldn't. LDs, UKIP and SNP are all now effectively joint third, so to exclude any one of them would be to invite a legal challenge. But include SNP and that raises a question about Plaid. UKIP's zero MPs (or one, if you go by the last election), brings the Greens into play.

    For the Tories, expect a thoroughly boring, safety-first election campaign. When you're 4-0 up with 20 minutes to go, you don't play 4-2-4. Let the opposition attack and then exploit the space as their formation and discipline goes.
    The Tories can't play it *too* safe, though. They have to fire up enough people in the Midlands and winnable parts of the NE / NW to capitalise on this opportunity. North of the Watford Gap the GOTV effort will be critical. This, I guess, is why having Sir Lynton on board is in turn so critical.
    I'd work on the assumption that Corbyn will do that for them. No need to go too hard on him proactively. Just wait for the media to ask him about the IRA, or for him to lose his rag, or flounder over how his policies don't add up. Then publicise it.

    And against that, run on the same Brexit program May's been outlining for months.
    You'd want to think so, certainly. But this is an election without too many precedents - guarding against complacency ("we don't need to worry. No-one sane will vote for Corbyn") will be essential.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.
    Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision

    I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
    Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.

    She is still a lying bitch.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Mr. Rex, I did consider that, but as I (on the very rare occasions I have a drink) tend to have had Scottish I go for their spelling.

    Me too, but I doubt that goes for Mrs C, judging by her avatar!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.

    We know one thing for certain, it's going to be an exciting night!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Lidlington comment on Gorton - looks like the "can't elect to a dissolved parliament" argument is not a firm rule, just a distant precedent:

    There is no statutory provision that provides for the cancellation of a by-election when a general election is in progress. it is up to the judgement of acting returning officer, whom one might expect to regard the by-election writ of having been superseded. This was the course of action taken by the acting returning officer in the one precedent that I’ve found which is dating back to November 1923.”

    The entire UK constitution is based on distant precedent :p Would be stupid to hold it two days after the parliament they are being elected to is dissolved.
    I agree (although an embarrassment for Labour could prove very tempting).

    It's just notable that we have had a day of hard rules being advocated, yet in the end it all comes down to the whim of the ARO.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    bobajobPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    Anyone who uses the teeth-clenching hell phrase that is "you okay hun?" should be banished to ConservativeHome for several weeks, long after the election is over. I would have expected better of you in particular Sean. Hang your cliched Cornish head in shame, misery and regret.
    Did you see the comment I was replying to? He's lucky he got a cliche out of me.
    Shocking that folk resort to low abuse..
    It wasn't being called a twat that irked me, it was the clumsy, witless phrasing with childish punctuation to match.

    Standards, dear boy, standards,
    He says, before ending with a comma.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.
    Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision

    I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
    Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.

    She is still a lying bitch.
    Is it really necessary to call her that?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.

    Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Jason said:

    SeanT said:

    Yorkcity said:

    SeanT said:

    G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.

    It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
    Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
    Are you OK, hun?


    Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.

    We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.

    She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
    I don't think any sensible PM would turn down an open goal at a general election, which is exactly what the Tories have presented to them. She is Brown-esque in some ways, but her masterstroke was embracing Brexit, unequivocally, after the result. Corbyn and Labour did not do that, and still don't.

    I usually dread general elections, especially the last two when none of us were really certain of the result. Not this time. I say with absolute certainty that there is nothing on this planet that could propel Jeremy Corbyn to Downing Street. Gary Glitter has a better chance of being PM than he does.
    It really worries me when people are as definite as that - too reminiscent of Famous Last Words.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2017

    Professor Tim Bale:

    Indeed, she’s not just going to win; she’s going to win big. Contrary to common wisdom, bookies don’t necessarily know better than opinion pollsters when it comes to predicting political events, but they know a racing certainty when they see one. Within minutes of the PM’s announcement, one national chain was giving odds of 2/9 on an overall majority for the Conservatives, with Labour out on 14/1.

    To those Corbynistas who think the public will warm to Jeremy and his policies once they see more of him: Not. Going. To. Happen. If the Labour leader and his team think they’ve had a raw deal from the media – and from the Tories – since he took over, they ain’t seen nothing yet. Even on a level playing field (and it won’t be one) they’d still stand no chance: they’re miles behind on the economy, serious difficulties in the NHS haven’t yet fed through electorally, and Labour is seen as neither trustworthy nor competent. Game over


    https://theconversation.com/snap-election-a-win-win-for-theresa-may-shell-crush-labour-and-make-brexit-a-little-easier-76362

    We kept hearing that about Ed miliband..Just wait until the public see the real Ed...Cue the at home with the multiple kitchens etc etc etc

    Again uncle lynton showed people make a judgement and once they have, very difficult to shift and doesn't happen in a few week of a GE campaign.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Simon Hughes is to stand again in Bermondsey and Nick Clegg to restand in Hallam

    Any news of Danny Alexander standing again?
    Wonder if the Viscount will stand again. Jack W may know
    Viscount Thurso now sits in the Lords where all Scottish peers worthy of the name should be promoting the interests of fine pie makers of repute.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,815
    surbiton said:


    She is still a lying bitch.

    She hasn't lied... She's just changed her mind... ;)

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    An interesting if long-winded way to predict the national shares is to forecast each constituency result and see what the totals are. :)
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Just ridiculously close

    @amlivemon 14s14 seconds ago
    More
    Last poll from us in France:

    Fillon 22%
    Le Pen 21.5%
    Macron 21%
    Melenchon 19%

    3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille

    It seems more and more likely that it'll be Fillon v Le Pen with Macron's voters failing to materialise.
    If it were to be Fillon v Le Pen it could well be President Le Pen which would effectively end the EU and leave nothing to Brexit from anyway, though it still looks unlikely
    Last time that happened Jospin's supporters supported Chirac with the pithy slogan 'vote for the crook not the fascist.'

    Could still work...
    That was then but Fillon has only been polling in the mid- to high-50s vs Le Pen (though has had some better scores these last few days). He should still win but that line-up's her best chance.
This discussion has been closed.