Can I get my 2015 money back on Thurrock? (the best value loser I think I have had on politics)
Less than 1000 votes between Conservatives in 1st and UKIP in 3rd. The Tory MP then campaigned for Remain, ludicrously unfriendly to Corbyn I would imagine. Probably one of the few seats UKIP have any chance in
Indeed, she’s not just going to win; she’s going to win big. Contrary to common wisdom, bookies don’t necessarily know better than opinion pollsters when it comes to predicting political events, but they know a racing certainty when they see one. Within minutes of the PM’s announcement, one national chain was giving odds of 2/9 on an overall majority for the Conservatives, with Labour out on 14/1.
To those Corbynistas who think the public will warm to Jeremy and his policies once they see more of him: Not. Going. To. Happen. If the Labour leader and his team think they’ve had a raw deal from the media – and from the Tories – since he took over, they ain’t seen nothing yet. Even on a level playing field (and it won’t be one) they’d still stand no chance: they’re miles behind on the economy, serious difficulties in the NHS haven’t yet fed through electorally, and Labour is seen as neither trustworthy nor competent. Game over
We kept hearing that about Ed miliband..Just wait until the public see the real Ed...Cue the at home with the multiple kitchens etc etc etc
Again uncle lynton showed people make a judgement and once they have very difficult to shift and doesn't happen in a few week of a GE campaign.
Uncle Lynton has also shown that you can take people'd preformed judgements and reframe them in different ways to drive voting behaviour. If the Tories just pile on Corbyn and McDonald, they might as well be running the Lib Dems' campaign for them.
G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.
It's going to be a weirdly quiet, boringly predictable General Election. But a necessary one.
Hell you are boring twat everyone would like to see Corbyn V May .If he is that crap what is her worry ?
Are you OK, hun?
Personally, I'd like to see May V Corbyn, and I would regret it if TV debates did not come back for the next election. But I can see May's logic in turning them down.
We're getting a sense of May's political persona now. She's shrewd, she's devious, she's flinty, she can be very ruthless and calculating. She seems quite cold and not particularly personable, but she sounds like the sort of person you would want negotiating Brexit.
She's also got the measure of Sturgeon.
I don't think any sensible PM would turn down an open goal at a general election, which is exactly what the Tories have presented to them. She is Brown-esque in some ways, but her masterstroke was embracing Brexit, unequivocally, after the result. Corbyn and Labour did not do that, and still don't.
I usually dread general elections, especially the last two when none of us were really certain of the result. Not this time. I say with absolute certainty that there is nothing on this planet that could propel Jeremy Corbyn to Downing Street. Gary Glitter has a better chance of being PM than he does.
It really worries me when people are as definite as that - too reminiscent of Famous Last Words.
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.
This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.
Some possible surprises:
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
@amlivemon 14s14 seconds ago More Last poll from us in France:
Fillon 22% Le Pen 21.5% Macron 21% Melenchon 19%
3136 polled in Paris, Marseille, Nice Toulouse, Dijon, Lille
It seems more and more likely that it'll be Fillon v Le Pen with Macron's voters failing to materialise.
If it were to be Fillon v Le Pen it could well be President Le Pen which would effectively end the EU and leave nothing to Brexit from anyway, though it still looks unlikely
Last time that happened Jospin's supporters supported Chirac with the pithy slogan 'vote for the crook not the fascist.'
Has that Lord who does his own political modelling and predicted the Tories would win a majority in 2015 given his view on the outcome of the 2017 general election yet?
We kept hearing that about Ed miliband..Just wait until the public see the real Ed...Cue the at home with the multiple kitchens etc etc etc
Again uncle lynton showed people make a judgement and once they have, very difficult to shift and doesn't happen in a few week of a GE campaign.
Even if people haven't made up their minds who actually thinks Corbyn will do better with more exposure?
Only the mentalitists in maomentum...But they also think the Zionist cartel running the media are faking polls which are showing the real picture which sees 21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation.
Can I get my 2015 money back on Thurrock? (the best value loser I think I have had on politics)
Less than 1000 votes between Conservatives in 1st and UKIP in 3rd. The Tory MP then campaigned for Remain, ludicrously unfriendly to Corbyn I would imagine. Probably one of the few seats UKIP have any chance in
This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.
Some possible surprises:
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
I'm not proposing to give my views until I've had chance to place some bets.
Has that Lord who does his own political modelling and predicted the Tories would win a majority in 2015 given his view on the outcome of the 2017 general election yet?
Mr. Isam, got a smidge longer on under 10% for UKIP (1.66). I'd be surprised if they exceeded that. It was 12-13% or so last time, and that was with Farage, pre-referendum.
This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.
Some possible surprises:
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
O&S is the part of Scotland most opposed to independence. Indeed wasn't it the only area to oppose even devolution? In current circumstances that one doesn't look like a good bet
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I suppose this makes me the slimy and slippery person you allude to, but I think Theresa May has become a lot more interesting today. She executed a very risky, and as you say, dodgy manoeuvre, as far as I can tell brilliantly. She has strengthened her position enormously.
It will be a Brexit election but I don't think it will make any difference to the Brexit outcome one way or the other. The EU is driving the pace on the negotiations. It's not exactly take it or leave it - the EU will make proposals, the UK will push back here and there, there will be a haggle and then they will agree something close to what the EU originally proposed. A big majority does however make Theresa May's life a lot easier in signing up to the nearly inevitable.
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.
Can I get my 2015 money back on Thurrock? (the best value loser I think I have had on politics)
Less than 1000 votes between Conservatives in 1st and UKIP in 3rd. The Tory MP then campaigned for Remain, ludicrously unfriendly to Corbyn I would imagine. Probably one of the few seats UKIP have any chance in
This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.
Some possible surprises:
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
O&S is the part of Scotland most opposed to independence. Indeed wasn't it the only area to oppose even devolution? In current circumstances that one doesn't look like a good bet
All council areas voted for devolution in 1997 (O & S was the narrowest margin at 57% Yes).
O & S and D & G voted no to tax raising powers, the only 2 areas to do so.
This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.
Some possible surprises:
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
O&S is the part of Scotland most opposed to independence. Indeed wasn't it the only area to oppose even devolution? In current circumstances that one doesn't look like a good bet
It was in favour of devolution but against tax-raising powers, IIRC.
That said, the SNP have a local issue to work with there. Even if they miss out there, they should take one of the other three, from Labour.
Snap Guardian/ICM poll suggests Conservatives have a 21-point lead over Labour, their joint highest lead since this polling series started in the 1980s.
People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.
Based on the 2010 result, could Maidenhead be a long shot for the mother of all decapitations by the Lib Dems? Remain in 2016 out-polled Theresa May in 2015.
G-Live: Bad news for the live blogging community. According to Channel 4 News’ Gary Gibbon, Theresa May will not be taking part in general election debates. It sounds like we are not going to get many press conferences either.
Now that is being frit - I know Corbyn can hold his own in a debate, but you'd think she'd welcome the opportunity to pin him down in a debate
Of course she's frit. She's also very sensible. Blair turned down debates in 1997 and 2001 on the same sensible basis that you don't risk a big lead on a debate, even when you're LotO, never mind as PM.
Besides, it's very late in the day now. Getting agreement on debate format would be difficult after all the shenanigans last time on who should be in and who shouldn't. LDs, UKIP and SNP are all now effectively joint third, so to exclude any one of them would be to invite a legal challenge. But include SNP and that raises a question about Plaid. UKIP's zero MPs (or one, if you go by the last election), brings the Greens into play.
For the Tories, expect a thoroughly boring, safety-first election campaign. When you're 4-0 up with 20 minutes to go, you don't play 4-2-4. Let the opposition attack and then exploit the space as their formation and discipline goes.
The Tories can't play it *too* safe, though. They have to fire up enough people in the Midlands and winnable parts of the NE / NW to capitalise on this opportunity. North of the Watford Gap the GOTV effort will be critical. This, I guess, is why having Sir Lynton on board is in turn so critical.
I'd work on the assumption that Corbyn will do that for them. No need to go too hard on him proactively. Just wait for the media to ask him about the IRA, or for him to lose his rag, or flounder over how his policies don't add up. Then publicise it.
And against that, run on the same Brexit program May's been outlining for months.
Based on the 2010 result, could Maidenhead be a long shot for the mother of all decapitations by the Lib Dems? Remain in 2016 out-polled Theresa May in 2015.
This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.
Some possible surprises:
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
Admittedly for candidates other than Carmichael: the Lib Dems massively increased their vote shares in the two equivalent Holyrood seats AFTER the Carmichael affair blew up.
This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.
Some possible surprises:
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
O&S is the part of Scotland most opposed to independence. Indeed wasn't it the only area to oppose even devolution? In current circumstances that one doesn't look like a good bet
It was in favour of devolution but against tax-raising powers, IIRC.
That said, the SNP have a local issue to work with there. Even if they miss out there, they should take one of the other three, from Labour.
Having checked back I was actually distantly recalling 1979, when only O&S voted heavily against the deal, with the borders areas also being more narrowly against. Neverthless if the GE north of the border turns into an IndyRef GE then I can't see the SNP ousting Carmichael (who is a smart and engaging guy).
Snap Guardian/ICM poll suggests Conservatives have a 21-point lead over Labour, their joint highest lead since this polling series started in the 1980s.
People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.
Will you be re-invigorating your ARSE for the 2017 general election?
No.
My ARSE is enjoying a well earned retirement currently taking in the hospitality of the sun drenched climes of the French Riviera.
There's precious little challenge in a foregone conclusion.
Despite the perfidy of the Prime Minister she will be returned with a very comfortable majority as the spectre of Jezza and Sturgeon will allow for Labour marginals to flash CON GAIN on election night.
Snap Guardian/ICM poll suggests Conservatives have a 21-point lead over Labour, their joint highest lead since this polling series started in the 1980s.
People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.
Lib Dem membership up by over 4,000 today now over 90,000
About the same size as your average CLP. ;-)
Yes but most of the average CLP membership is a load of £3 Corbyn cultists who wouldn't know how to deliver a leaflet if they tried. Their dreaming is about meet harsh reality.
Based on the 2010 result, could Maidenhead be a long shot for the mother of all decapitations by the Lib Dems? Remain in 2016 out-polled Theresa May in 2015.
Lac Dirk May's seat is a Remain area, isn't it? Can she be PM if she's not even elected? Like · Reply · 9 · 2 hrs
Sarah Lafferty Wow I actually had NOT even considered that Like · Reply · 1 · 1 hr
Em Bird As a (reluctant) constituent, I think the chances of her losing her seat are miniscule.
Yes, Maidenhead voted pretty overwhelmingly to remain in the EU but I don't think that same majority will turn against May. She consistently polls at 65+% of the electorate here. She is also, it has to be said, a really good local MP, always responsive and active in the community. It would be the biggest electoral shock ever.
This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.
Some possible surprises:
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
I expect Swansea West was strongly Remain, and Swansea East strongly Leave. A small microcosm of Labour’s problems.
In Swansea West, all that will happen is that the local MP will run his own strongly Remain campaign. I am not even sure the LibDems will make third place, let alone first.
The LibDems are not going to find it easy to pick up seats from Labour -- after all, they never have.
Corbyn may be a Leaver, but all that will happen is that the Labour MPs in the University seats will say that they are strongly Remain.
For example, in Cambridge, I think Dan Zeichner will retain the seat. The LibDems have been falling back on the Council.
Jezza steps down, someone, anyone, even La Thornberry takes over and it's game on.
What is he thinking as he looks in the mirror these days??!!
He is so dense light bends around him...So probably why do I not have a reflection? Or more likely...The machine that makes the mirror work must be broken...I.blame Tory cuts.
Based on the 2010 result, could Maidenhead be a long shot for the mother of all decapitations by the Lib Dems? Remain in 2016 out-polled Theresa May in 2015.
Lib Dem membership up by over 4,000 today now over 90,000
About the same size as your average CLP. ;-)
Yes but most of the average CLP membership is a load of £3 Corbyn cultists who wouldn't know how to deliver a leaflet if they tried. Their dreaming is about meet harsh reality.
In my area they've been more active than they have since 01.
I don't think the swings will be uniform. In fact, between the Tories and LD, it will be a bit of reverse of 2015. Labour will get a negative swing against the Tories. How many seats Labour will lose, I am not sure.
Tories must be well over 50% in England and Wales outside London.
Probably over 50% in England, including London.
Polls I have been looking at recently generally put the Tories in the high 40s in England, so a figure of 50% or so excluding London is quite plausible. They seem to have been above 50% in the rest of the South for some time.
And yet polls show 55% approve of her election, and just 15% oppose
No one gives a fuck about this POLITICIAN CHANGES MIND shocker
My mother-in-law has spoken from middle england and although she didn't quite use Sean's language skills, it was along the same line. She also said May has basically said: "Back me to delivery a working Brexit, or choose Corbyn to do it".
Based on the 2010 result, could Maidenhead be a long shot for the mother of all decapitations by the Lib Dems? Remain in 2016 out-polled Theresa May in 2015.
The tories have 330 MPs, they need 430 to win the vote (2/3 of the Commons). They will have all the NI parties and LD MPs voting for a GE, and (it seems) the SNP as well.
It would take a monumental rebellion in Labour - at least 3/4 of Labour MPs to vote against Corbyn, to stop this GE. Ain't gonna happen.
I'm almost convinced. But they don't have to vote *against*, do they? They have to not vote in favour. If I was one of these MPs I wouldn't be in Westminster helping the government with their parliamentary arithmetic. I'd be back in my constituency, preparing for the election.
This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.
Some possible surprises:
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
O&S is the part of Scotland most opposed to independence. Indeed wasn't it the only area to oppose even devolution? In current circumstances that one doesn't look like a good bet
Snap Guardian/ICM poll suggests Conservatives have a 21-point lead over Labour, their joint highest lead since this polling series started in the 1980s.
People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.
This is going to be a devil of a difficult GE to model.
Yes. The main interest looks likely to be on the constituency betting and the bands.
Some possible surprises:
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
Admittedly for candidates other than Carmichael: the Lib Dems massively increased their vote shares in the two equivalent Holyrood seats AFTER the Carmichael affair blew up.
Which is why it would be a surprise. Differential turnout might just do it though. One to watch.
I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision
I am sure Theresa May is devastated by your disappointment in her as she goes on her way to massacring Corbyn
Very few of us will be disappointed by Corbyn being massacred. If anything, she will be doing it 3 years earlier.
She is still a lying bitch.
No, she changed her mind. Every dweeboid crypto-Remainer in the country was in effect saying "We are going to be ringing your doorbell and then running away every five minutes for as many years as it takes you to negotiate Brexit, and you wouldn't BELIEVE how annoying we are going to be", and she took them at their word and did something about it. Who could have foreseen such a thing?
Will you be re-invigorating your ARSE for the 2017 general election?
No.
My ARSE is enjoying a well earned retirement currently taking in the hospitality of the sun drenched climes of the French Riviera.
There's precious little challenge in a foregone conclusion.
Despite the perfidy of the Prime Minister she will be returned with a very comfortable majority as the spectre of Jezza and Sturgeon will allow for Labour marginals to flash CON GAIN on election night.
How "comfortable" is "comfortable" though? I mean are we talking Major 1992? Thatch 79? Or Blair 2005? Or Thatch 1983? Or Blair 1997?
Comments
EDIT and Lads are 2/5
the party of Blair and Campbell go ape about lies
Liberal Democrat gain Swansea West. They were fourth in 2015 but historically have done well, and Swansea was only narrowly leave. If they rally that support behind them they could win.
SNP to gain Orkney - one of only three possible gains (obviously!) but in a low turnout election would righteous anger among SNP supporters that Carmichael got away with it be enough to turn the only seat the Liberals have held since before Thatcher?
Conservative gain Derby South - is Beckett standing again? Even if she is, this might just be a seat under pressure if the Liberal Democrats split her vote and the Tories squeeze UKIP.
Conservative gain Stoke Central - when they make an effort...
Labour hold Islington North. Despite the fact their candidate is a moron.
If UKIP get no seats and the Tories have a huge majority he will prob go I reckon.
Con GAIN Bootle ....
It will be a Brexit election but I don't think it will make any difference to the Brexit outcome one way or the other. The EU is driving the pace on the negotiations. It's not exactly take it or leave it - the EU will make proposals, the UK will push back here and there, there will be a haggle and then they will agree something close to what the EU originally proposed. A big majority does however make Theresa May's life a lot easier in signing up to the nearly inevitable.
https://twitter.com/tim_aker/status/852098731398893568
https://twitter.com/tim_aker/status/852176043154780161
My ARSE is enjoying a well earned retirement currently taking in the hospitality of the sun drenched climes of the French Riviera.
Herself drinks neither whiskey nor whisky (although -ey is the correct ending as everyone knows)
Where's me shillelagh?
nobody frightened
What is he thinking as he looks in the mirror these days??!!
The SNP (or any party) cannot abstain from the FTPA/GE vote, as it's based on the number of seats.
If they abstain , then it counts as a vote against.
O & S and D & G voted no to tax raising powers, the only 2 areas to do so.
That said, the SNP have a local issue to work with there. Even if they miss out there, they should take one of the other three, from Labour.
People were asked if they supported or opposed Theresa May’s decision to call an election.
Support: 55%
Oppose: 15%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/18/corbyn-cressida-dick-met-police-a-gun-may-not-have-saved-pc-killed-in-westminster-terror-attack-says-new-met-chief-politics-live
16:56
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/c76.stm
#Macron 23.5 (+0.5
#LePen 22.5 (0
#Fillon 19.5 (0
#Melenchon 19 (-0.5
Despite the perfidy of the Prime Minister she will be returned with a very comfortable majority as the spectre of Jezza and Sturgeon will allow for Labour marginals to flash CON GAIN on election night.
In Swansea West, all that will happen is that the local MP will run his own strongly Remain campaign. I am not even sure the LibDems will make third place, let alone first.
The LibDems are not going to find it easy to pick up seats from Labour -- after all, they never have.
Corbyn may be a Leaver, but all that will happen is that the Labour MPs in the University seats will say that they are strongly Remain.
For example, in Cambridge, I think Dan Zeichner will retain the seat. The LibDems have been falling back on the Council.
Con Maj 158, which I think sounds about right. The seats might be different - e.g. Tooting remains Labour but Bassetlaw goes blue.
NOW IS THE TIME!
'Five times Theresa May ruled out a snap general election'
http://tinyurl.com/lsfx95y
Also:
https://twitter.com/CapX/status/854364327004057600
Happy days!
"David Herdson @DavidHerdson 3m3 minutes ago
Today's ICM poll (over 75s):
Con 85
LD 6
Lab 5
Oth 3"
Titter .....