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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The poll finding that sums up GE2017 & why it’ll be a CON land

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Ave It!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    Regrettably I missed Theresa and Phillip on the One Show
    The Telegraph review is headed
    "Theresa and Philip May on The One Show: sweet, but screamingly dull"
    I imagine they'll be pleased with that.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Repeat post for the evening audience. I beg the moderators' indulgence...

    Don Valley Update

    Hello everyone, and thanks for the many messages of support both on here and via other communication channels! Canvassing has been encouraging so far though there is a 9,000 vote mountain to climb.

    A number of you have asked how to help or donate...

    Help - locally or phone canvassing: sign-up here
    Donate: via Crowdfunder here: http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/aaron-bell-for-don-valley

    If you are considering donating over £100 please let me know privately and we can take it via BACS. All donations over £50 will be checked against the electoral roll for eligibility.

    For updates follow me on Twitter or like my Facebook page.

    Thanks again.


    "We met some wonderful residents and Conservatives"

    :smiley:

    I shall have words with my agent. Not the most felicitous phrasing :D
    Hope you win! :lol:
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Repeat post for the evening audience. I beg the moderators' indulgence...

    Don Valley Update

    Hello everyone, and thanks for the many messages of support both on here and via other communication channels! Canvassing has been encouraging so far though there is a 9,000 vote mountain to climb.

    A number of you have asked how to help or donate...

    Help - locally or phone canvassing: sign-up here
    Donate: via Crowdfunder here: http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/aaron-bell-for-don-valley

    If you are considering donating over £100 please let me know privately and we can take it via BACS. All donations over £50 will be checked against the electoral roll for eligibility.

    For updates follow me on Twitter or like my Facebook page.

    Thanks again.


    "We met some wonderful residents and Conservatives"

    :smiley:

    I asked for and was provided with a Venn diagram.
    viz.
    https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/862030192088412160
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_P said:

    hts://twitter.com/dollytheis/status/860587139985289216

    Dolly has a strong background in outreach and advocacy for a number of community and equality campaigns

    Sounds very Labour to me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Tory majority still a bet, even at 1-20

    At the time of writing, a £1 bet on a Conservative majority will win you £1.05 at Ladbrokes, and £1.04 on Betfair. This implies a probability of less than five percent. Given the favourite-longshot bias, the de-biased probability is lower still.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    I see that on the TNS crossbreaks Labour is ahead in Wales. Very small numbers though.

    So tell me why I should take a small unweighted sub-sample over a properly weighted poll?
    I am not saying that you should! Every little titbit might be of some interest.
    Yougov's polls for last year's Welsh Assembly elections did underestimate Labour somewhat.It was a bit of a surprise that they came so close to retaining an overall majority.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    The most shocking link of the Hanretty forecast

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/tables/UKIP_seat_gains.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Fat_Steve said:

    Regrettably I missed Theresa and Phillip on the One Show
    The Telegraph review is headed
    "Theresa and Philip May on The One Show: sweet, but screamingly dull"
    I imagine they'll be pleased with that.

    I presume Jezza will be given the opportunity to do the same, and I am going to guess Mrs Corbyn won't be appearing. We will be treated to half an hour of jam making tips and what to look for when inspecting man-hole covers?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    "Maybe it's becawse ahm a lundunner..."

    https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/862035466824163328
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Brighton Pavillion forecast seems contingent on LDs standing, but I'd heard they were not - LAB Gain?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    isam said:

    When I ask about her dealings with the current MP, Labour’s Jack Dromey, there is a pause followed by a long sigh. “I don’t feel like I have much of a choice. Most people around here won’t vote. I would like to vote Labour but things aren’t changing so I feel like I can’t.”

    Through Elliott’s eyes, Erdington is increasingly segregated with stark ethnic divides. We walk on to Slade Road, which lies to the south of Erdington in Stockland Green, and on a notepad Elliott divides it into sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/09/erdington-general-election-id-like-to-vote-labour-but-things-arent-changing

    Sounds a lot like Scotland where Labour took their vote for granted...and of course Jezza was all speaker corner ranting this morning about the bankers, the rich, the rigged system, but not a single word on immigration (which is a huge issue to many in Labour traditional seats).

    "sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities."

    Who would have thought mass immigration would lead to that?
    Dromey says he's proud of it...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,753

    Further proof that Scotland is becoming even more Tory :wink:
    The only good SCon is a well hung one..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband

    https://twitter.com/FT/status/862042224112095239
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Fat_Steve said:

    Regrettably I missed Theresa and Phillip on the One Show
    The Telegraph review is headed
    "Theresa and Philip May on The One Show: sweet, but screamingly dull"
    I imagine they'll be pleased with that.

    I presume Jezza will be given the opportunity to do the same, and I am going to guess Mrs Corbyn won't be appearing. We will be treated to half an hour of jam making tips and what to look for when inspecting man-hole covers?
    He should talk about reading books to small children - that photo of him doing so is the most charming image I have seen of him.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ave_it said:

    I've just looked at the Labour website

    I still find it barely credible to see that Jeremy is leading the party in a GE campaign!

    He's not really. He's running a leadership campaign, that happens to coincide with a GE
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    hts://twitter.com/dollytheis/status/860587139985289216

    Dolly has a strong background in outreach and advocacy for a number of community and equality campaigns

    Sounds very Labour to me.
    A brief look at the Twitter suggests otherwise.....hello, Dolly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    Repeat post for the evening audience. I beg the moderators' indulgence...

    Don Valley Update

    Hello everyone, and thanks for the many messages of support both on here and via other communication channels! Canvassing has been encouraging so far though there is a 9,000 vote mountain to climb.

    A number of you have asked how to help or donate...

    Help - locally or phone canvassing: sign-up here
    Donate: via Crowdfunder here: http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/aaron-bell-for-don-valley

    If you are considering donating over £100 please let me know privately and we can take it via BACS. All donations over £50 will be checked against the electoral roll for eligibility.

    For updates follow me on Twitter or like my Facebook page.

    Thanks again.


    "We met some wonderful residents and Conservatives"

    :smiley:

    I shall have words with my agent. Not the most felicitous phrasing :D
    Reminiscent of David Howell's wonderfully badly expressed phrase on Howe's Conflict of Loyalty speech:

    'That speech must have affected every thinking Conservative MP and many others as well.'
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited May 2017

    Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband

    https://twitter.com/FT/status/862042224112095239

    If Ed had listened to Glasman, things could have been v different
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited May 2017

    Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband

    With a majority Jnr could only dream of...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    isam said:

    When I ask about her dealings with the current MP, Labour’s Jack Dromey, there is a pause followed by a long sigh. “I don’t feel like I have much of a choice. Most people around here won’t vote. I would like to vote Labour but things aren’t changing so I feel like I can’t.”

    Through Elliott’s eyes, Erdington is increasingly segregated with stark ethnic divides. We walk on to Slade Road, which lies to the south of Erdington in Stockland Green, and on a notepad Elliott divides it into sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/09/erdington-general-election-id-like-to-vote-labour-but-things-arent-changing

    Sounds a lot like Scotland where Labour took their vote for granted...and of course Jezza was all speaker corner ranting this morning about the bankers, the rich, the rigged system, but not a single word on immigration (which is a huge issue to many in Labour traditional seats).

    "sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities."

    Who would have thought mass immigration would lead to that?
    Dromey says he's proud of it...
    I wonder how much time Dromey spends in his constituency.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    chestnut said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    hts://twitter.com/dollytheis/status/860587139985289216

    Dolly has a strong background in outreach and advocacy for a number of community and equality campaigns

    Sounds very Labour to me.
    A brief look at the Twitter suggests otherwise.....hello, Dolly.
    I was only kidding - a lot of the candidates in my area seem to confer to stereotype, at least with Lab/Con. Union official, teacher, disability campaigner vs army, MOD or businessman.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Bit dispiriting to think Edinburgh south might be lost on a 3 way marginal to SNP.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    GIN1138 said:

    Looks like fox hunting is on it's way back then?

    I wonder if the ban has simply been in place too long, now.

    I suspect a qualification of the ban, rather than outright repeal. And even that would depend on a very large Tory majority.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    Bit dispiriting to think Edinburgh south might be lost on a 3 way marginal to SNP.

    Neither the Tories nor the LibDems are putting much effort in... They have other fish to fry
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Do we take it she can knock on your door anytime?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    kle4 said:

    Bit dispiriting to think Edinburgh south might be lost on a 3 way marginal to SNP.

    I think Labour will hold it through tactical voting, the Tories will be focused on Edinburgh South West
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    Bit dispiriting to think Edinburgh south might be lost on a 3 way marginal to SNP.

    Neither the Tories nor the LibDems are putting much effort in... They have other fish to fry
    Where are you this election ?

    Edi West ?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.

    It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.
    I think UKIP had a far bigger tent than that. Many ex-Labour voters for instance :p
    I accept that. Racist bigotry has never been difficult to find amongst the lower working classes
    Matilda told such Dreadful Lies,
    It made one Gasp and Stretch one’s Eyes.

    I think the best thing for you would be an acute and lethal attack of elephantiasis.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Pulpstar said:

    Tory majority still a bet, even at 1-20

    At the time of writing, a £1 bet on a Conservative majority will win you £1.05 at Ladbrokes, and £1.04 on Betfair. This implies a probability of less than five percent. Given the favourite-longshot bias, the de-biased probability is lower still.

    A probability of less than 5% that it fails, I assume...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Bath rated the most likely Con loss, what an embarrassment it would be to lose on the night of a landslide - apparently no Lab had that experience in 1997.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Further proof that Scotland is becoming even more Tory :wink:
    The only good SCon is a well hung one..
    Suffice to say the Tory folks of Dunblane & Bridge of Allan are somewhat perplexed by this news !!
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 101
    For what it's worth, these are the seat totals currently implied by the individual constituency markets:

    Con: 401
    Lab: 163
    LD: 15
    SNP: 48

    If I set an arbitrary upper limit based on odds shorter than 2/1 and a lower limit based on odds shorter than 1/2, I get this range:

    Con: 367-432
    Lab: 138-191
    LD: 7-30
    SNP: 41-53

    Those numbers won't be 100% correct because of the way I've scraped the data, but it shouldn't be too far off.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Do we take it she can knock on your door anytime?

    Doorbell, surely?

    Ding, Dong!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    GIN1138 said:

    Ave It!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D

    GIN!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Hope you are well!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    Bit dispiriting to think Edinburgh south might be lost on a 3 way marginal to SNP.

    Neither the Tories nor the LibDems are putting much effort in... They have other fish to fry
    I don't doubt it, but voters can be tricky, and with expectations super high, perhaps SCON voters don't vote tactically as much as needed, thinking there's a chance for them to come up through the middle.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    Where are you this election ?

    Edi West ?

    South West
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    TOPPING said:

    Just watching Tezza and hubby on the telly.

    I've never heard so many clichés and soundbites trotted out in such a short time

    And yet... she sounded absolutely authentic. Very few others could get away with it.

    She looks and sounds like an everyday woman. And I mean that as a compliment.

    That's her real strength.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Do we take it she can knock on your door anytime?
    Surely to God a spoof?

    "A Lifelong QPR fan, AirFix modeller and Imperial War Museum fan, she also runs a Charity Shopping Club, encouraging people to shop in charity shops and help reduce lifestyle waste."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Tory majority still a bet, even at 1-20

    At the time of writing, a £1 bet on a Conservative majority will win you £1.05 at Ladbrokes, and £1.04 on Betfair. This implies a probability of less than five percent. Given the favourite-longshot bias, the de-biased probability is lower still.

    A probability of less than 5% that it fails, I assume...
    Yep
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037

    Do we take it she can knock on your door anytime?
    I wouldn't object to being canvassed by her.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    I don't doubt it, but voters can be tricky, and with expectations super high, perhaps SCON voters don't vote tactically as much as needed, thinking there's a chance for them to come up through the middle.

    Maybe, but, the results from the Council "Pentlands" ward are revealing.

    Both Tory candidates elected (no major surprise), but the Labour candidate elected ahead of the second SNP candidate as a result of explicit tactical votes
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037

    Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband

    https://twitter.com/FT/status/862042224112095239

    I think we should introduce a fining system for every time you write a sentence with "May" and "pound shop" in it.
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    isam said:

    Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband

    https://twitter.com/FT/status/862042224112095239

    If Ed had listened to Glasman, things could have been v different
    I agree. Maurice Glasman was very interesting. I was interested that Ed M brought him in to the picture. He should have listened to him - things would, as you say, have been v different.

    That's the pity of Ed Millband - He had enough credibility, at the beginning, to make the Labour party listen to criticism and see the need to evolve, if he had wanted to. He must have had some instincts in that direction to involve Glasman at all. But somehow, in the end, he didn't have have the insight or imagination to leave his own comfort zone.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    I dislike the price cap policy. May ought to be looking at breaking up the cartel which Labour allowed to develop on energy supply.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Ishmael_Z said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.

    It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.
    I think UKIP had a far bigger tent than that. Many ex-Labour voters for instance :p
    I accept that. Racist bigotry has never been difficult to find amongst the lower working classes
    Matilda told such Dreadful Lies,
    It made one Gasp and Stretch one’s Eyes.

    I think the best thing for you would be an acute and lethal attack of elephantiasis.
    Oh dear , dear! But one should expect litlle more from such a lower form of life.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Ave_it said:

    Foxhunting a thing of the past! Will not be happening

    What CON need to focus on is bringing welfare under control!

    Ave it anti-foxhunting? I always knew he was a pinko...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    Ishmael_Z said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.

    It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.
    I think UKIP had a far bigger tent than that. Many ex-Labour voters for instance :p
    I accept that. Racist bigotry has never been difficult to find amongst the lower working classes
    Matilda told such Dreadful Lies,
    It made one Gasp and Stretch one’s Eyes.

    I think the best thing for you would be an acute and lethal attack of elephantiasis.
    He needs to study the parable of the Just Pharisee.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Ave_it said:

    Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?

    If there is a meet up let's hope nobody gets banned over it this time! :open_mouth:

    And yes, I'm well thanks. :smiley:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Where are you this election ?

    Edi West ?

    South West
    Your vote could make the difference...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    I just cannot see LDs winning Bristol West yetthe forecast thinks it the most likely LD gain?

    10/3 om Betfair
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    kle4 said:

    I just cannot see LDs winning Bristol West yetthe forecast thinks it the most likely LD gain?

    10/3 om Betfair

    Individual seat forecasts need a large pinch of salt...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't doubt it, but voters can be tricky, and with expectations super high, perhaps SCON voters don't vote tactically as much as needed, thinking there's a chance for them to come up through the middle.

    Maybe, but, the results from the Council "Pentlands" ward are revealing.

    Both Tory candidates elected (no major surprise), but the Labour candidate elected ahead of the second SNP candidate as a result of explicit tactical votes
    Encouraging. For the sake of the union a good showing for SCON, SLD and SLAB would be nice, though unlike them I'm tempering expectations.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    justin124 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.

    It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.
    I think UKIP had a far bigger tent than that. Many ex-Labour voters for instance :p
    I accept that. Racist bigotry has never been difficult to find amongst the lower working classes
    Matilda told such Dreadful Lies,
    It made one Gasp and Stretch one’s Eyes.

    I think the best thing for you would be an acute and lethal attack of elephantiasis.
    Oh dear , dear! But one should expect litlle more from such a lower form of life.
    I hadn't take Ishmael for a Labour supporter. But if you say so.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    Further proof that Scotland is becoming even more Tory :wink:
    The only good SCon is a well hung one..
    I'm sure I speak for many on here in saying I never felt the need to know that much about your personal fantasies!
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Fat_Steve said:

    isam said:

    Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband

    https://twitter.com/FT/status/862042224112095239

    If Ed had listened to Glasman, things could have been v different
    I agree. Maurice Glasman was very interesting. I was interested that Ed M brought him in to the picture. He should have listened to him - things would, as you say, have been v different.

    That's the pity of Ed Millband - He had enough credibility, at the beginning, to make the Labour party listen to criticism and see the need to evolve, if he had wanted to. He must have had some instincts in that direction to involve Glasman at all. But somehow, in the end, he didn't have have the insight or imagination to leave his own comfort zone.
    I was a Labour voter and when I read about Blue Labour, Glasman etc I thought at last they were talking to old labour voters again... when he ditched him i moved to the kippers, now they've gone full Corbyn militant. A shame I think
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    I think we should introduce a fining system for every time you write a sentence with "May" and "pound shop" in it.

    It can't be long until we get stories trailing a potential 'government of all the talents' to work together to get the best Brexit deal. Liam Fox out, Peter Mandelson in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    I just cannot see LDs winning Bristol West yetthe forecast thinks it the most likely LD gain?

    10/3 om Betfair

    Individual seat forecasts need a large pinch of salt...
    In fairness it does basically say that on the forecast, I'm just stunned to see it (and as others have pointed out, some places at 99% chances of gains).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/exclusive-100-moderate-labour-mps-form-breakaway-group-jeremy/

    Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

    Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.

    One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?

    If there is a meet up let's hope nobody gets banned over it this time! :open_mouth:

    And yes, I'm well thanks. :smiley:
    Good reminder Ave _ It - Thanks

    I'll have a think about Venues - DDs has been pretty poor the last couple of times, so I want somewhere central, accessible, and with reasonable volume (not thumping music) - and bookable without a big admin headache. I'll have a think. - But if anyone else has an idea and wants to contact Mike, I'd equally be happy for that to happen.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    I've been wondering about the possibility of a radically centrist manifesto ever since the launch date was pushed back until after the candidate registration deadline.

    UKIP seem to have pulled their candidates in a lot of seats.

    A clever game of poker, if so.

    Some shire tories could well be in for one helluva shock - with no ukip on their ballot paper.

    I don't think it's going to happen in reality, though. It's highly likely the manifesto will be a fairly predictable mishmash - with only a few low-cost commitments.

    But there is the potential...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    TGOHF said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/exclusive-100-moderate-labour-mps-form-breakaway-group-jeremy/

    Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

    Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.

    One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.

    Not confident of beating Corbyn in a contest if he does stay on then.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    kle4 said:

    A student who introduced Jeremy Corbyn at a campaign launch posted a series of racist and ant-Semitic tweets in which she talked about blacking up and used the n-word.

    Bethany Barker has apologised for the 'disgusting' tweets and quit as general secretary of Nottingham Labour Students Committee after the messages were uncovered.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4488920/Labour-student-Bethany-Barker-quits-racist-tweets.html

    No problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party....they had an investigation and everything.

    She sounds like a right old charmer.

    Her quoted statements seems a bit more logical than as quoted by Guido earlier - I don't see reference to her not remembering writing the tweets, which was not credible (even if you don't recall specifics, you'd remember being a vulgar racist or making racist jokes, I know I remember making plenty of racist jokes), so just the typical ' I have grown up and matured, x does not represent my views now' stuff, which is all fine, and hopefully true.
    True, and it reinforces my view that 16 year olds should not have the vote. (I even wonder about 18 year olds sometimes). It makes me wonder why the SNP and the left are so keen on it - as if I didn't know! :trollface:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,768

    I think we should introduce a fining system for every time you write a sentence with "May" and "pound shop" in it.

    It can't be long until we get stories trailing a potential 'government of all the talents' to work together to get the best Brexit deal. Liam Fox out, Peter Mandelson in.
    If Peter Mandelson joins the government I will vote Labour at the next election even if Diane Abbott is the leader.

    And that is saying something.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279

    I think we should introduce a fining system for every time you write a sentence with "May" and "pound shop" in it.

    It can't be long until we get stories trailing a potential 'government of all the talents' to work together to get the best Brexit deal. Liam Fox out, Peter Mandelson in.
    Liam Fox up...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited May 2017
    Disraeli said:

    kle4 said:

    A student who introduced Jeremy Corbyn at a campaign launch posted a series of racist and ant-Semitic tweets in which she talked about blacking up and used the n-word.

    Bethany Barker has apologised for the 'disgusting' tweets and quit as general secretary of Nottingham Labour Students Committee after the messages were uncovered.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4488920/Labour-student-Bethany-Barker-quits-racist-tweets.html

    No problem with antisemitism in the Labour Party....they had an investigation and everything.

    She sounds like a right old charmer.

    Her quoted statements seems a bit more logical than as quoted by Guido earlier - I don't see reference to her not remembering writing the tweets, which was not credible (even if you don't recall specifics, you'd remember being a vulgar racist or making racist jokes, I know I remember making plenty of racist jokes), so just the typical ' I have grown up and matured, x does not represent my views now' stuff, which is all fine, and hopefully true.
    True, and it reinforces my view that 16 year olds should not have the vote. (I even wonder about 18 year olds sometimes). It makes me wonder why the SNP and the left are so keen on it - as if I didn't know! :trollface:
    I've never really understood the drive for it, and didn't at 16 either, our views on what they can and cannot do is pretty arbitrary. They can join the army (albeit not be sent to combat, IIRC), but not drive, they can have sex, but not drink. Allowing voting before we allow them to drive, for example, just seems silly.

    That said, having allowed it in the IndyRef, I don't see how it is justified not doing it elsewhere, unless someone is prepared to not quibble and state they at was a mistake.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    How does this compare to TSE's leaflet delivery tips?

    https://twitter.com/dollytheis/status/855388277104365568
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I doubt she'll be leafleting Vauxhall, it must be like seat 600 to drop !
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Fat_Steve said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?

    If there is a meet up let's hope nobody gets banned over it this time! :open_mouth:

    And yes, I'm well thanks. :smiley:
    Good reminder Ave _ It - Thanks

    I'll have a think about Venues - DDs has been pretty poor the last couple of times, so I want somewhere central, accessible, and with reasonable volume (not thumping music) - and bookable without a big admin headache. I'll have a think. - But if anyone else has an idea and wants to contact Mike, I'd equally be happy for that to happen.
    Good plan Steve. I'd be up for attending if I can. Truckles were very amenable - don't the same people have another branch near St James?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2017

    How does this compare to TSE's leaflet delivery tips?

    twitter.com/dollytheis/status/855388277104365568

    If she was leafleting for Labour, she would definitely need to ensure they were shellac -ed.....I'll get my coat.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Pong said:

    htps://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/862042489129234432

    I've been wondering about the possibility of a radically centrist manifesto ever since the launch date was pushed back until after the candidate registration deadline.

    UKIP seem to have pulled their candidates in a lot of seats.

    A clever game of poker, if so.

    Some shire tories could well be in for one helluva shock - and no ukip on their ballot.

    I don't think it's going to happen in reality, though. It's highly likely the manifesto will be a fairly predictable mishmash - with only a few low-cost commitments, along with social stuff to keep the client vote happy.

    But there is the potential...
    The impression I get from the May team is of very fast footwork in response to public reaction to their campaign. May says "Me me me", everyone says "Look at May saying "Me me me"", 48 hours later we see posters saying "Theresa and Team" or whatever they said. I would also expect them to refocus their campaign as they go along to appeal to whichever bits of the electorate look to be in play.

    As for shire tories, it is possibly non-coincidental that they have been thrown a delicious great gobbet of legalised foxhunting to distract their attention from other things.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Who wants to make foxes a protected species?

    And who wants to make them extinct in the UK?

    Those are basically the options if we properly ban hunting. Foxes are a major pest to free range poultry farmers; they are allowed to, and will, kill them brutally to protect their birds. If they're not 'cultivated' for hunting they will soon die out.

    Unless..

    We make them a protected species. If they're protected the only way to control their numbers, which we'll soon have to, is to introduce a larger predator.

    So we'll have a multitude of wild foxes, and can only control them with even more dangerous wild animals. Sounds like a plan.

    So what do anti hunters want; no foxes, unlimited foxes and more dangerous animals to control them (and then what?), or some toffs to pay good money to follow some dogs doing what is natural for them?

    Why is poison, trap, or shooting a more acceptable death? Because noone's watching? So why is it ok that we watch Attenborough describing similar stuff in the wild?

    I expect only fascists support foxhunting..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    Ok, I'll stop now.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I think labour will hold Vauxhall very comfortably.

    It'll be a good reminder of how unimportant specific candidates are in general.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Ok, I'll stop now.

    UKIP need candidates to stand in London.. .and I could do it!!! Get to meet the minx...

    D'oh they're not opposing Hoey :cry:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    isam said:

    Ok, I'll stop now.

    UKIP need candidates to stand in London.. .and I could do it!!! Get to meet the minx...

    D'oh they're not opposing Hoey :cry:
    Go for it, you'll have lots of fun seeing your name up at the count.

    On a serious point will they find the 5k for you ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Ok, I'll stop now.

    Stop posting them perhaps - I suspect you have the feed open in another tab.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,924
    edited May 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    Seems a while since we had a ComRes or MORI poll?

    Ipsos MORI, about two weeks back, ComRes three weeks ago.
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    Mortimer said:

    Fat_Steve said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?

    If there is a meet up let's hope nobody gets banned over it this time! :open_mouth:

    And yes, I'm well thanks. :smiley:
    Good reminder Ave _ It - Thanks

    I'll have a think about Venues - DDs has been pretty poor the last couple of times, so I want somewhere central, accessible, and with reasonable volume (not thumping music) - and bookable without a big admin headache. I'll have a think. - But if anyone else has an idea and wants to contact Mike, I'd equally be happy for that to happen.
    Good plan Steve. I'd be up for attending if I can. Truckles were very amenable - don't the same people have another branch near St James?
    Very possible.
    (hint - should anyone wish to take up the mantle of "Unofficial Drinks Organiser" I am happy to pass it on. Best get official clearance).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:
    Sounds like it is all in one go.

    Prepare for a prosecution for Thanet. :p
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,037
    kle4 said:

    Ok, I'll stop now.

    Stop posting them perhaps - I suspect you have the feed open in another tab.
    I don't know what you're talking about.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    It is very poor, CPS should charge or not charge. A running commentary severely reduces their chance of a conviction.
    I think they'll bottle it, they've probably prejudiced their own case tbh.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.
    They have an awfully chummy relationship with C4 news.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Sounds like it is all in one go.

    Prepare for a prosecution for Thanet. :p
    Will that be the only one, I wonder? It sounded the most serious and hard to see how it wasn't criminal.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Fat_Steve said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?

    If there is a meet up let's hope nobody gets banned over it this time! :open_mouth:

    And yes, I'm well thanks. :smiley:
    Good reminder Ave _ It - Thanks

    I'll have a think about Venues - DDs has been pretty poor the last couple of times, so I want somewhere central, accessible, and with reasonable volume (not thumping music) - and bookable without a big admin headache. I'll have a think. - But if anyone else has an idea and wants to contact Mike, I'd equally be happy for that to happen.
    Excellent Fat Steve - I'll be there!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Sounds like it is all in one go.

    Prepare for a prosecution for Thanet. :p
    Will that be the only one, I wonder? It sounded the most serious and hard to see how it wasn't criminal.
    I am going to feel so much better when this is all out of the way. Unless there are thirty prosecutions, of course :D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    GIN1138 said:

    Seems a while since we had a ComRes or MORI poll?

    Ipsos MORI, about two weeks back, ComRes three weeks ago.
    Time for a couple of new one's soon hopefully! :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.
    They have an awfully chummy relationship with C4 news.
    Didn't we have some scandal about the media being too close to the plod?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Pong said:

    I've been wondering about the possibility of a radically centrist manifesto ever since the launch date was pushed back until after the candidate registration deadline.

    UKIP seem to have pulled their candidates in a lot of seats.

    A clever game of poker, if so.

    Some shire tories could well be in for one helluva shock - with no ukip on their ballot paper.

    I don't think it's going to happen in reality, though. It's highly likely the manifesto will be a fairly predictable mishmash - with only a few low-cost commitments.

    But there is the potential...
    I seem to recall that The Spectator dubbed May "the most left-wing Tory PM in 40 years," or words to that effect. She's certainly old enough to have been involved in Conservative activism before Margaret Thatcher became leader.

    If the manifesto transpired to advocate a 21st Century relaunch of one-nation Toryism, then this would not be especially surprising.
This discussion has been closed.