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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day of the polls tightening but only YouGov has TMay n

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    nunu said:

    RobD said:

    @nunu - we are all hoping the hidden campaign is less crap than the national one! Otherwise it might be a big waste of money :p

    Let us not over react to the morning poll from the YouGov tracker, which will by now show a Labour lead I predict. It is I suspect nonsense.
    A lead based on non-voters suddenly voting would be based on the most expensive six words in the English language "this time, it will be different".
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    AndyJS said:

    nunu said:

    RobD said:

    @nunu - we are all hoping the hidden campaign is less crap than the national one! Otherwise it might be a big waste of money :p

    Let us not over react to the morning poll from the YouGov tracker, which will by now show a Labour lead I predict. It is I suspect nonsense.
    I'll be very surprised if it shows a Labour lead.
    yeah....you're right....but I'm just trying to prepare myself.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/870405741575798784
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    CarlottaVance said:

    nunu said:

    RobD said:

    @nunu - we are all hoping the hidden campaign is less crap than the national one! Otherwise it might be a big waste of money :p

    Let us not over react to the morning poll from the YouGov tracker, which will by now show a Labour lead I predict. It is I suspect nonsense.
    A lead based on non-voters suddenly voting would be based on the most expensive six words in the English language "this time, it will be different".
    You are confusing the tracker with the poll. The tracker looks at many , many other variables too.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    CarlottaVance said:

    nunu said:

    RobD said:

    @nunu - we are all hoping the hidden campaign is less crap than the national one! Otherwise it might be a big waste of money :p

    Let us not over react to the morning poll from the YouGov tracker, which will by now show a Labour lead I predict. It is I suspect nonsense.
    A lead based on non-voters suddenly voting would be based on the most expensive six words in the English language "this time, it will be different".
    Based on the front pages, the papers are piling in to help the Conservatives, so in this instance, "this time it won't be different".
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-40127957
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,964
    surbiton said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    nunu said:

    RobD said:

    @nunu - we are all hoping the hidden campaign is less crap than the national one! Otherwise it might be a big waste of money :p

    Let us not over react to the morning poll from the YouGov tracker, which will by now show a Labour lead I predict. It is I suspect nonsense.
    A lead based on non-voters suddenly voting would be based on the most expensive six words in the English language "this time, it will be different".
    You are confusing the tracker with the poll. The tracker looks at many , many other variables too.
    If their interviews are picking up more non-voters than are actually going to vote, I don't think it makes a difference.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,964
    New thread
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    If the Tories were defending large numbers of marginals in London against Labour they would probably be panicking right now. The reason they're not is because of this list:

    Labour in second place:

    Croydon Central 0.3%
    Hendon 7.5%
    Harrow East 9.7%
    Enfield Southgate 10.4%
    Finchley & Golders Green 11.2%
    Chipping Barnet 14.4%
    Battersea 15.6%
    Chingford & Woodford Green 19.1%
    Bexleyheath & Crayford 21.0%
    Kensington 21.1%
    Putney 23.8%
    Uxbridge 23.9%
    Wimbledon 26.1%
    Cities of London & Westminster 26.7%
    Croydon South 29.7%
    Bromley 30.8%
    Old Bexley & Sidcup 33.8%
    Beckenham 37.8%
    Ruislip 39.5%
    Chelsea & Fulham 39.8%

    UKIP in second place:

    Hornchurch & Upminster 23.7%
    Romford 28.2%
    Orpington 40.7%

    LDs in second place:

    Twickenham 3.3%
    Kingston & Surbiton 4.8%
    Sutton & Cheam 7.9%
    Richmond Park 38.9%

    FPT.

    The London poll is very similar to the 1997 results. Therefore, all those seats which went to Labour in that year, comes into play.

    I expect a big drop in the Tory margin in Chingford. There was a large swing against the Tories in 2015. I believe this will continue.
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