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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    https://twitter.com/andysearson/status/870184524084281344 < Cambridge.

    Corbyn seems pretty popular to me there.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Ave_it said:

    Here it is!

    Ave it says:
    - worst campaign ever
    - worst manifesto ever
    - worst PM ever

    But Ave it projects (GB share):
    CON 44%
    LAB 36%
    LD 8%
    SNP 4%
    GRN 3%
    PC 1%
    OTH 4%

    Seats:
    CON 340
    LAB 233
    LD 6
    SNP 50
    GRN 0
    PC 3
    OTH 18

    Con maj 40

    Minimal CON gains from LAB - Gains in midlands and north offset by LAB gains in London and south
    Gains for CON, LAB and LD from SNP

    I think TMay will struggle, badly, if that's all she achieves. She will survive, but there will be plots.
    Undoubtedly. She would have pissed away more political capital in a few weeks than even Zac Goldsmith managed. Fwiw. I think she'll get a bigger majority than that. Certainly, 100+ and the mistakes of the campaign would be forgotten within days.
    Zac Goldsmith is going to be an MP again in a week too.
    Touch and go, I'd say.
    My mole reckons Olney useless, Zac to win.
    Given how big the Conservative majority was in 2015, we really should win. That being said, I couldn't vote for Zac, even if he is a Conservative. Were I living in Richmond Park, despite being a Leaver, I'd have something more pressing to do next Thursday. You know, like washing my hair.

    But you still thought Zac would win againts Olney.
    You know, I would have voted for him through gritted teeth last year. But after losing he should have f*cked off with his tail between his legs. Giving a seat to the LibDems in a by-election (where you're not even a Conservative), and then attempting a come back as a Conservative is, in my mind, a complete no-no.
    you're country needs you ;-)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Fenman said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to es tits up.

    Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!
    I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

    I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

    What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

    Holds
    Orkney & Shetland
    Ceredgion
    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    Sheffield Hallam
    North Norfolk

    Gains
    Twickenham
    Kingston Upon Thames
    Edinburgh West
    Bath

    Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

    Losses
    Leeds NW to Labour
    Richmond Park to Conservative
    Southport to Conservative
    Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
    North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.html
    I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.
    Cambridge? Home of the balanced audience which greats near every utterance of Corbyn with rapturous delight? Where Labour hold 7 county seats to LDs 5 in the city as of before the Labour surge?

    I've no no ground knowledge, but Corbyn is surging somewhere, and even with a small Lab majority, tiny even, it has to be a comfortable hold, surely?
    I don't think the LDs will win, but it's worth noting that the LDs had a fabulous local election there last month. Their total number of votes was up about 40% on 2015, while the Labour vote was down.
    People still believed in the LDs a month ago.
    Cambridge is also Remainia central. And the (Corbynite) students will have gone home.

    As I said, I expect the Labour Party to hold Cambridge, but it will be close.
    The students will still be up. Remember Cambridge May Week is in June.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 285
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Fenman said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    The LDs may be mortally wounded in ppen.

    I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

    Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!
    I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

    I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

    What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

    Holds
    Orkney & Shetland
    Ceredgion
    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    Sheffield Hallam
    North Norfolk

    Gains
    Twickenham
    Kingston Upon Thames
    Edinburgh West
    Bath

    Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

    Losses
    Leeds NW to Labour
    Richmond Park to Conservative
    Southport to Conservative
    Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
    North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.html
    I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.
    Cambridge? Home of the balanced audience which greats near every utterance of Corbyn with rapturous delight? Where Labour hold 7 county seats to LDs 5 in the city as of before the Labour surge?

    I've no no ground knowledge, but Corbyn is surging somewhere, and even with a small Lab majority, tiny even, it has to be a comfortable hold, surely?
    I don't think the LDs will win, but it's worth noting that the LDs had a fabulous local election there last month. Their total number of votes was up about 40% on 2015, while the Labour vote was down.
    People still believed in the LDs a month ago.
    Cambridge is also Remainia central. And the (Corbynite) students will have gone home.

    As I said, I expect the Labour Party to hold Cambridge, but it will be close.
    They won't... Trinity May ball is on the 19th for example. My daughter has exams finishing on the 9th. The politics people have one on that morning!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

    I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

    Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!
    I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

    I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

    What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

    Holds
    Orkney & Shetland
    Ceredgion
    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    Sheffield Hallam
    North Norfolk

    Gains
    Twickenham
    Kingston Upon Thames
    Edinburgh West
    Bath

    Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

    Losses
    Leeds NW to Labour
    Richmond Park to Conservative
    Southport to Conservative
    Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
    That's far too optimistic for the LDs. I expect third parties to be squeezed everywhere, so I think they be lucky to have more than 3 seats in total throughout GB.
    Why would you expect Scotland to behave differently from last year's Holyrood elections? There you saw substantial tactical voting for the LibDems to get the SNP out, which resulted in them gaining two seats from the SNP (NE Fife, and Edinburgh West), and coming very close in CS&R, despite having an overall vote share that was down. Given the SNP has slipped substantially since then, I think it takes a brave man not to forecast the LDs repeating their Holyrood performance.
    NE Fife is more likely to be a Tory (not LD) gain, and they are at risk of losing O&S (the only seat they have held long-term). The LDs do have a reasonable chance in Edinburgh West.
    NE Fife was one of two constituencies the LDs "won" in the Scottish locals last month (the other was Edinburgh West), and they won the Holyrood seat by a large margin last year.
    That was Willie though. People like him despite his close relationships with sheep.
  • Cambridge students will all be there on 8 June, term doesn't end for another week after that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/870383818942935040

    Telegraph have fallen for desperate PB Tory straw-clutching? :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    This time next week, the exit poll will have been released.

    And then we'll be filled to the brim with girlish glee.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    5-4-3-2-1 BOOM!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Sorry - just practising for next week :lol:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

    I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

    Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!
    I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

    I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

    What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

    Holds
    Orkney & Shetland
    Ceredgion
    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    Sheffield Hallam
    North Norfolk

    Gains
    Twickenham
    Kingston Upon Thames
    Edinburgh West
    Bath

    Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

    Losses
    Leeds NW to Labour
    Richmond Park to Conservative
    Southport to Conservative
    Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
    Yes, still quite a bit of churn in the possibilities.

    Last time they didn't do a good job of holding what they had, and this time they may get even fewer votes - unless they are making their vote much more efficient, dropping even further in some areas (like mine) and doing well in their targets they will have losses.

    Best case scenario they hold almost all their current seats, gain a couple of english seats (damn Corbyn surge ruined any chance in Cambridge), and several Scottish seats, and even on 8-10% 13-14 is possible, but I think you're right, though I'm betting a few less.

    Orkney
    Ceredigion
    Westmoreland
    Edinburgh West
    Sheffield Hallam
    Another Scottish seat
    One of Southport or Leeds NW
    Kingston
    Yes, I think something in the 6 to 12 range is very likely indeed. My gut is that next Thursday is going to have a lower than expected turnout (say 2001 levels), and that will result in a slightly higher LD share than people expect. (Say final polls averaging 9%, actual 10%.)
    You and Pulpstar at opposite ends on turnout.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Scott_P said:

    @tom_nuttall: Someone missing, can't quite put my finger on it... https://twitter.com/AP/status/870381220449923073

    They just don't get it do they. If it can't be renegotiated then the US leaves. Without the US others will follow and the whole thing falls apart.
  • scoopscoop Posts: 64

    calum said:
    Has she has had a nervous breakdown? I am beginning to start to feel sorry for her. To fear losing to Jeremy Corbyn. It is liked England being knocked out of the Cup by Iceland. Humiliating.
    Classy comment from the landowner
  • This time next week, the exit poll will have been released.

    And then we'll be filled to the brim with girlish glee.

    And John Curtice will be looking impish.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Trump.
    Free association.
    Is there such a thing as a judas lemming?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Cyclefree said:

    Polruan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    So, if you're Labour what do you do? Some people are about to think for the first time 'maybe'. How do they handle that? In the past, Labour has not handled that moment well. How would you play it?

    [-]

    People voted Brexit because they want a better future. Only one party offering details about what that means to them.
    Have veteran soldiers starved to death? Awful if true and if down to government inaction or malice.

    But has it actually happened? And this is a genuine question BTW.

    'David Clapson’s awful death was the result of grotesque government policies'

    https://tinyurl.com/hqfbzlv
    Thank you. I didn't know about that. Horrific.

    Why then are Labour not proposing to reverse the benefit cuts and instead wasting money on nationalization or on protecting the inheritances of the well off?
    I guess because of that normal democratic inconvenience: you have to win power to be able to do good. And as any attempt to redress problems of poverty will be seized upon across the popular press as stealing money from struggling nice people, people like our readers, for the benefit of the undeserving poor, it's electoral suicide.

    Also, policies around nationalisation, tuition fees and social care would be seen as part of the solution from a Labour perspective: they're about building a society in which more of the risk of misfortune is managed collectively, which is a bigger vision than simply shovelling some cash from the richest to the poorest as a sticking plaster for poverty.
    How does nationalisation help manage the risk of misfortune?
    Competition only works if there can be losers as well as winners - there are periods when a service provider is exploitative/substandard before market forces work to change the provider's behaviour or knock it out of business (if they do at all). Fine in principle in a properly competitive marketplace, say mobile phone providers, but not fine in a monopoly or near-monopoly situation. If you're unlucky enough to need to commute to work on Southern Rail, there's no form of rational consumer behaviour that can be exercised to obtain a better service - for example.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    For the nostalgic among us...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjJDyIAI4SI
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    DavidL said:

    Saltire said:

    daodao said:

    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    !
    I
    That's far too optimistic for the LDs. I expect third parties to be squeezed everywhere, so I think they be lucky to have more than 3 seats in total throughout GB.
    Why would you expect Scotland to behave differently from last year's Holyrood elections? There you saw substantial tactical voting for the LibDems to get the SNP out, which resulted in them gaining two seats from the SNP (NE Fife, and Edinburgh West), and coming very close in CS&R, despite having an overall vote share that was down. Given the SNP has slipped substantially since then, I think it takes a brave man not to forecast the LDs repeating their Holyrood performance.
    NE Fife is more likely to be a Tory (not LD) gain, and they are at risk of losing O&S (the only seat they have held long-term). The LDs do have a reasonable chance in Edinburgh West.
    There is no chance that the Tories win in NE Fife. I will happily wager with you that the LDs are ahead of them on the 8th.
    Indeed I think that the chances of this being a LD gain is at least 50%. (Might be slightly biased since I have been doing a fair bit of campaigning in the seat but it feels like it very close)

    I think it was Electoral Calculus who had it as a Tory gain. I was somewhat bemused. The risk, as with everywhere in Scotland is that it ends up with the Unionist vote splitting 10,20,30 with the SNP on 40.
    Yes, a lot is being asked of Scottish unionists.

    1) That you're willing to vote tactically
    2) That you do so in significant numbers
    3) That you can agree on who is the primary SNP challenger in every seat
    4) That you do all this unofficially as the parties (at least from a distance) seem to mostly be disavowing any tactical approach openly.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    kle4 said:

    Fenman said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    The LDs may be mortally wounded in parliament but they're unlikely to "die". As the continuation of the historic Liberal party, they still have too much of a ground presence and too many fee-paying members for that to happen.

    I wouldn't bet against them being subsumed into a new centre/centre-left party in due course. I also wouldn't bet against a strange rebirth if/when Brexit goes tits up.

    Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!
    I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

    I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

    What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

    Holds
    Orkney & Shetland
    Ceredgion
    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    Sheffield Hallam
    North Norfolk

    Gains
    Twickenham
    Kingston Upon Thames
    Edinburgh West
    Bath

    Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

    Losses
    Leeds NW to Labour
    Richmond Park to Conservative
    Southport to Conservative
    Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
    North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.html
    I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.
    Cambridge? Home of the balanced audience which greats near every utterance of Corbyn with rapturous delight? Where Labour hold 7 county seats to LDs 5 in the city as of before the Labour surge?

    I've no no ground knowledge, but Corbyn is surging somewhere, and even with a small Lab majority, tiny even, it has to be a comfortable hold, surely?
    Students already gone on holiday though? So fewer youth votes for labour?
    Didn't someone argue the other day (fairly convincingly, I thought) that the young who don't turn out are the non-student young?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    edited June 2017
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

    I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

    I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

    What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

    Holds
    Orkney & Shetland
    Ceredgion
    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    Sheffield Hallam
    North Norfolk

    Gains
    Twickenham
    Kingston Upon Thames
    Edinburgh West
    Bath

    Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

    Losses
    Leeds NW to Labour
    Richmond Park to Conservative
    Southport to Conservative
    Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
    That's far too optimistic for the LDs. I expect third parties to be squeezed everywhere, so I think they be lucky to have more than 3 seats in total throughout GB.
    Why would you expect Scotland to behave differently from last year's Holyrood elections? There you saw substantial tactical voting for the LibDems to get the SNP out, which resulted in them gaining two seats from the SNP (NE Fife, and Edinburgh West), and coming very close in CS&R, despite having an overall vote share that was down. Given the SNP has slipped substantially since then, I think it takes a brave man not to forecast the LDs repeating their Holyrood performance.
    NE Fife is more likely to be a Tory (not LD) gain, and they are at risk of losing O&S (the only seat they have held long-term). The LDs do have a reasonable chance in Edinburgh West.
    NE Fife was one of two constituencies the LDs "won" in the Scottish locals last month (the other was Edinburgh West), and they won the Holyrood seat by a large margin last year.
    That was Willie though. People like him despite his close relationships with sheep.
    Ah hem. The LOCALS. Not the Holyrood elections.

    here

    See that orangey-bit on the Eastern coast of Scotland. That's Fife NE in the 2017 Scottish locals, that is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    This time next week, the exit poll will have been released.

    And then we'll be filled to the brim with girlish glee.

    Can't bloody wait (if anything to end the torture of this campaign)
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Neat bit of Labour campaigning outside Basingstoke railway station earlier: they were handing out leaflets - red on one side, blue on the other - made to look like big train tickets. On the red side was the Labour pledge to nationalize the railways; on the blue side the fare hikes under the Tories. I was expecting a Footite shambles from Labour throughout, but this was punchy and professional.

    That they are even mentioning nationalisation is a victory of sorts.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Scott_P said:
    You don't often see a housing shortage offered as a reason for falling prices!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    Did this really happen today?

    Journalist: "Why do you think voters are warming to Corbyn?"

    Theresa May: "I just get out there and campaign with my message"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    calum said:

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/870384517202182146

    Very nice graphic.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Wow what brings politics into disrepute!!!

    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/870012023547072512
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_P said:
    Positive for the LDs!

    I think it's the first of these predictions I've seen that says Lamb will win his seat.

    Labour on just over 200 even on 35% though - if that is right, then I must have been mad to think they could get 190 on low 30s.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:
    Is the Telegraph sure it is not its other front page story -- rising waiting lists -- boosting Labour's vote?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    JonWC said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Fenman said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Well, we thought they might get a modest one now and look at the result, fighting to retain as many as they currently hold!

    I started the election campaign thinking the LibDems would get 12-14% of the vote and 12 to 14 seats.

    I now think they'll just get 10% (or maybe even 11% on a good night), and 10 to 11 seats.

    What are the Smithson (jr) 10?

    Holds
    Orkney & Shetland
    Ceredgion
    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    Sheffield Hallam
    North Norfolk

    Gains
    Twickenham
    Kingston Upon Thames
    Edinburgh West
    Bath

    Plus one or two of: East Dumbartonshire, NE Fife, Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, and Argyll & Bute. I don't think it's inconceivable that the LDs could benefit massively from tactical voting in Scotland end up on six seats. (But then, it isn't inconceivable they end up with just a couple of English seats.)

    Losses
    Leeds NW to Labour
    Richmond Park to Conservative
    Southport to Conservative
    Carshalton & Wallington to Conservative
    North Norfolk? 4K majority, 8K kippers. I quite like Lamb but that would be a real achievement. Betfair thinks so too: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2017/north-norflok-constituency-betting-odds-2017-general-election-160517-136.html
    I'd be very surprised if the Lib Dems don't win Wells, Cambridge and at least two more in Scotland.
    Cambridge? Home of the balanced audience which greats near every utterance of Corbyn with rapturous delight? Where Labour hold 7 county seats to LDs 5 in the city as of before the Labour surge?

    I've no no ground knowledge, but Corbyn is surging somewhere, and even with a small Lab majority, tiny even, it has to be a comfortable hold, surely?
    I don't think the LDs will win, but it's worth noting that the LDs had a fabulous local election there last month. Their total number of votes was up about 40% on 2015, while the Labour vote was down.
    People still believed in the LDs a month ago.
    Cambridge is also Remainia central. And the (Corbynite) students will have gone home.

    As I said, I expect the Labour Party to hold Cambridge, but it will be close.
    They won't... Trinity May ball is on the 19th for example. My daughter has exams finishing on the 9th. The politics people have one on that morning!
    You are correct, and I am wrong.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk SNP Con likelyhood 97.4%

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/870385736008257537

    2015 redux.
  • CovfefeCovfefe Posts: 4
    First comment - though some time ago I write an article or two which went up on here. Under another moniker, of course. Hello again, Mike!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,192
    ydoethur said:

    hoveite said:


    Labour are explicitly promising to get rid of sanctions no matter any article in the Guardian says.

    They also say they will keep free school meals and massively increase school budgets. The policy they have adopted would massively increase pressure on places and vastly increase costs instead, causing the collapse of the system within months. Without going through it all again, VAT on private school fees would cause the private education system to implode - so the majority of the children there now will come into the state sector and the money Corbyn is greedily anticipating taking in will not materialise.

    The reason I mention this again is because Labour's manifesto is actually a tissue of lies, and that is why I link to the analysis not the manifesto itself. Labour say they will get rid of sanctions, but look at the detail and they are keeping the cuts. What is worrying - really worrying - is that most Labour supporters are ignorant of or wilfully blind to this reality, as we see in your posts and indeed on the Guardian and BBC websites where Corbyn's acolytes claim their manifesto is realistic and fully costed.

    Let me put it another way. Corbyn portrays himself as an honest, decent and principled man. So far in this campaign he has lied about his spending plans, lied about his links with the IRA and lied about his past principles. Previously, he has lied about his links with Holocaust Denial, lied about not having a seat on a train and lied about the information he was given on the Islington paedophile scandal. The last two were doubly crass because they were unnecessary. So he has also lied about being honest and principled.

    Drop the scales and really look at what he's saying. The uncomfortable truth, you will find, is that this is not a bold and redistributive manifesto that will remake Britain's economy in a fair form, but a series of ill-written bribes based on naked greed and hatred to appeal to certain client groups and bugger the rest - including welfare claimants (remember as an aside that Corbyn is from a wealthy background, has never been unemployed and never had to apply for a job. He really has no clue what life is like on welfare).

    Which is why I will not be voting for him. He is singularly fortunate in the campaign his two principal opponents are running.
    You were never going to vote Labour anyway. Sanctimonious bullshit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited June 2017
    Covfefe said:

    First comment - though some time ago I write an article or two which went up on here. Under another moniker, of course. Hello again, Mike!

    Interesting pick for a username. :) (welcome)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870384517202182146

    I am under no illusions that this model is not perfect

    Nor is that sentence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Oh thank goodness, I thought that was to save the NHS.

    Headline seems paranoid though.
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233

    This time next week, the exit poll will have been released.

    And then we'll be filled to the brim with girlish glee.

    It can't come soon enough. Just think - the yanks have 12 months of this crap every 4 years.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,010

    Cambridge students will all be there on 8 June, term doesn't end for another week after that.

    Important to remember May Week is in June.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Just a thought on election night for those who will be betting as the first results come in, the SNP vote is very evenly spread. With the exception of a couple of seats they were between 40 and 60% in every seat. In the Holyrood election they got between 36 and 48% in every regional list vote.
    I think that their vote is likely to go up or, much more likely, down by roughly the same amount across the country. If they look like they are doing about 8-10% worse in the first 2 or 3 seats to declare then it will probably indicate that they will vulnerable in any seat where they started with less than 50% of the vote. Sometimes though it will depend if there is a clear challenger to them for the other voters to rally round.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Positive for the LDs!

    I think it's the first of these predictions I've seen that says Lamb will win his seat.

    Labour on just over 200 even on 35% though - if that is right, then I must have been mad to think they could get 190 on low 30s.
    Right. Now we have a model showing Labour going backwards in Wales.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:
    If you'd given me that result a few weeks ago, I'd've been dancing in the streets.

    Now I'd be disappointed and a bit surprised by it.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    < Cambridge.

    Corbyn seems pretty popular to me there.

    So is LD candidate (and former MP) Julian Huppert. I suspect it depends on student turnout. If the students vote in large numbers, Labour will hold Cambridge. If not, the local vote for Huppert will win it back for the LDs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Interesting that 'Nowcast' includes seats with any chance of changing hands,not matter how small, even ones with what they call a 0.1% chance of changing.

    Also interesting how safe they reckon some LD seats are, which I think is bold

    Ceredigion LDem LDem 5.0%
    Carshalton & Wallington LDem LDem 11.2%
    North Norfolk LDem LDem 18.2%
    Leeds North West LDem LDem 20.0%

    Southport though they think is a goner

    Southport LDem Con 94.7%
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    RobD said:

    For the nostalgic among us...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjJDyIAI4SI

    Hoorar
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited June 2017
    East Renfrewshire SNP Con 74.8%

    Where Lab were 7000 ahead of Con last time? Some might switch in support and then tactical there if so (no Lab incumbent I guess).
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Tomorrow's newspaper headlines are giving a distinct whiff of panic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    For the nostalgic among us...

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjJDyIAI4SI

    Hoorar
    If you haven't got nine hours, you can watch it all at double speed.. :smiley:
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've bought turnout at 63. Here's hoping it is one of my better bets...

    over/under or spread?
    £40 a point on spread and 5/6 over £100

    I think either the fear of Corbyn will bring out the oldies or he might bring out the youngsters.
    Highly polarised binary choice election = high turnout (Or at least higher than 63)
    why the combination of bets?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Danny565 said:

    Tomorrow's newspaper headlines are giving a distinct whiff of panic.

    Yeah, I still don't buy the entryism argument.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Covfefe said:

    First comment - though some time ago I write an article or two which went up on here. Under another moniker, of course. Hello again, Mike!

    Do you own an off licence on Merseyside?! :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Scott_P said:

    htt://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/870385736008257537

    I bet they didn't say that.
    No quote mark in the title, so probably not.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Scott_P said:
    Here we go again. Toxic south of the border.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Positive for the LDs!

    I think it's the first of these predictions I've seen that says Lamb will win his seat.

    Labour on just over 200 even on 35% though - if that is right, then I must have been mad to think they could get 190 on low 30s.
    Right. Now we have a model showing Labour going backwards in Wales.
    We have models for every result you could dream of!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    SeanT said:

    I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.

    I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!

    Nope, I do all my booking online too, so I can often see a Doctor PDQ.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    Saltire said:

    Just a thought on election night for those who will be betting as the first results come in, the SNP vote is very evenly spread. With the exception of a couple of seats they were between 40 and 60% in every seat. In the Holyrood election they got between 36 and 48% in every regional list vote.
    I think that their vote is likely to go up or, much more likely, down by roughly the same amount across the country. If they look like they are doing about 8-10% worse in the first 2 or 3 seats to declare then it will probably indicate that they will vulnerable in any seat where they started with less than 50% of the vote. Sometimes though it will depend if there is a clear challenger to them for the other voters to rally round.

    It was the eveness of the vote that gave them their landslide in 2015. I think they will be down 7-8% which will help but everything in Scotland depends on the willingness of Unionists to vote tactically. If I lived in Edinburgh West I would vote Lib Dem, Edinburgh SW Tory and Edinburgh North and Leith Labour (god help me). But not everyone feels like that. I was speaking to a Tory in Edinburgh West who can't bring himself to vote Lib Dem only yesterday (despite my urging).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk SNP Con likelyhood 97.4%

    I wouldn't rate it that low :)

    Even if the end national result was SNP 51% Con 13% I'd still have Cons taking BRS

    I hope you all piled on when I heavily and repeatedly tipped it at the start of the campaign.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Freggles said:
    Isn't that a majority of 72? Or can't I do maths.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Freggles said:
    Con Maj 74 surely?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    kle4 said:

    East Renfrewshire SNP Con 74.8%

    Where Lab were 7000 ahead of Con last time? Some might switch in support and then tactical there if so (no Lab incumbent I guess).

    I'm not convinced either. I reckon SNP hold, although it's anyone's guess.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    May Day was May 1st and is gone.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Freggles said:
    (362-325) x 2 = 74
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Freggles said:
    Isn't that a majority of 72? Or can't I do maths.
    Traditionally measured, it's a majority of 72 (Con MPs less everyone else)

    n.b. Buckingham is in blue
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    SeanT said:

    I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.

    I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!

    Haven't been to the docs in years but i think if you turn up at 830am you can get in that day. Phone up for an appt and it's about a fortnight

    A v nice Sri Lankan who I followed from one practice to another #virtuesignalling
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    Freggles said:
    Con Maj 74
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Hand in hand! Last seasons 'right wing press'!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    calum said:

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/870384517202182146

    Con Maj 36.
    Seems a bit low.
    Isn't that a majority of 72? Or can't I do maths.
    Traditionally measured, it's a majority of 72 (Con MPs less everyone else)
    I like to do things traditionally. :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    RobD said:

    Freggles said:
    Isn't that a majority of 72? Or can't I do maths.
    No you're right. And that will hopefully not be too far off.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Makes you proud to be British ...
    twitter.com/themushypea/status/870385996319391744

    Oh god, are we back to posting this in each thread now? :p
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The Tories would take that now I expect. So would I.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    SeanT said:

    I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.

    I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!

    No.

    Its also possible to book online or ring and get an appointment for the same day.

    We read the same GP waiting time story every year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    of the 134 seats we expect are at risk of changing hands , 41 will more likely than not do so

    Boy,that is low.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Never mind - Labour have an open doors policy that will soon give us all more time to recover first.
  • scoopscoop Posts: 64
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.

    I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!

    Nope, I do all my booking online too, so I can often see a Doctor PDQ.
    Exactly the same for me. My other, recent experiences of the NHS are equally good - blood tests (I am hypothyroid) are done immediately and with almost no queueing.

    Maybe we are lucky.

    A&E is still shit but it was always shit, thanks to idiots turning up with hayfever.

    Or pissed
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    East Renfrewshire SNP Con 74.8%

    Where Lab were 7000 ahead of Con last time? Some might switch in support and then tactical there if so (no Lab incumbent I guess).

    I'm not convinced either. I reckon SNP hold, although it's anyone's guess.
    The Labour vote last time was seriously boosted by having Jim Murphy stand. On a good night for the Tories this is a gain but I wouldn't put the probability that high. Used to be the safest Tory seat in Scotland (or at least the Eastwood bit was).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    of the 134 seats we expect are at risk of changing hands , 41 will more likely than not do so

    Boy,that is low.

    Hm,, I might make a histogram of the probabilities.....
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    Wow what brings politics into disrepute!!!

    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/870012023547072512

    Actually my immediate answer to that question is Krishnan Guru-Murthy. One of the most despicable journalists to sully our televisions.

    Followed of course a close second by practically every politician which shows just how much I despise KG-M
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'd also had Ed West switching with far greater confidence that Dunbartonshire East
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.

    I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!

    Nope, I do all my booking online too, so I can often see a Doctor PDQ.
    Exactly the same for me. My other, recent experiences of the NHS are equally good - blood tests (I am hypothyroid) are done immediately and with almost no queueing.

    Maybe we are lucky.

    A&E is still shit but it was always shit, thanks to idiots turning up with hayfever.

    Yup, online prescription/e prescriptions as well.

    I know a lot of Doctors, apart from wanting to fine appointment no shows, idiots turning up at A&E with stuff like that, really boils there piss.

    Especially when they get shirty because they arrived first and other more serious cases get treated sooner than them.

    'No Sir, your hayfever isn't as serious as that man's heart attack'
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    DavidL said:

    Saltire said:

    daodao said:

    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    !
    I
    That's far too optimistic for the LDs. I expect third parties to be squeezed everywhere, so I think they be lucky to have more than 3 seats in total throughout GB.
    Why would you expect Scotland to behave differently from last year's Holyrood elections? There you saw substantial tactical voting for the LibDems to get the SNP out, which resulted in them gaining two seats from the SNP (NE Fife, and Edinburgh West), and coming very close in CS&R, despite having an overall vote share that was down. Given the SNP has slipped substantially since then, I think it takes a brave man not to forecast the LDs repeating their Holyrood performance.
    NE Fife is more likely to be a Tory (not LD) gain, and they are at risk of losing O&S (the only seat they have held long-term). The LDs do have a reasonable chance in Edinburgh West.
    There is no chance that the Tories win in NE Fife. I will happily wager with you that the LDs are ahead of them on the 8th.
    Indeed I think that the chances of this being a LD gain is at least 50%. (Might be slightly biased since I have been doing a fair bit of campaigning in the seat but it feels like it very close)

    I think it was Electoral Calculus who had it as a Tory gain. I was somewhat bemused. The risk, as with everywhere in Scotland is that it ends up with the Unionist vote splitting 10,20,30 with the SNP on 40.
    Lets put it this way I'm sure that if the Tories thought they were in with a chance of winning they would asking you to go to campaigning in St Andrews rather than Blairgowrie :smile:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Scott_P said:

    @tom_nuttall: Someone missing, can't quite put my finger on it... https://twitter.com/AP/status/870381220449923073

    China?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    kle4 said:

    East Renfrewshire SNP Con 74.8%

    Where Lab were 7000 ahead of Con last time? Some might switch in support and then tactical there if so (no Lab incumbent I guess).

    To raise a favourite PB meme, a large proportion of Scotland's Jewish community lives in East Renfrewshire; I wonder if there'll be a Corbyn factor? The SLab candidate is quite anti Corbyn but I guess he's keeping his trap shut on that subject at the moment.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    SeanT said:

    I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.

    I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!

    No. I can see my GP same day by booking an appointment on my phone through emis. Its fantastic. I live on Tyneside.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,926

    May Day was May 1st and is gone.

    Hey, Luke.

    June the 8th be with you.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Positive for the LDs!

    I think it's the first of these predictions I've seen that says Lamb will win his seat.

    Labour on just over 200 even on 35% though - if that is right, then I must have been mad to think they could get 190 on low 30s.
    Not necessarily - Labour wouldn't necessarily do that badly on a lower vote share *IF* the votes of the third parties, especially Ukip, held up better than expected, rather than the Tories completely running away with it.

    Based on my (admittedly rudimentary) study of how the electoral system used to work when the vast bulk of the vote used to split only two ways, it's quite possible under such circumstances for the leading party of accumulate a healthy lead in terms of seats based on a quite modest lead in terms of share of the vote. Conversely, in a more complex multi-party environment the winning party may need to win really big to get a healthy majority.

    To take an example, Harold Wilson and David Cameron won the 1966 and 2015 General Elections, respectively, with very similar leads over their main opponents in terms of national vote share (both a little over 6%.) The former won a Parliamentary majority of 96, the latter just 12.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    SeanT said:

    I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.

    I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!

    No.

    Its also possible to book online or ring and get an appointment for the same day.

    We read the same GP waiting time story every year.
    A year ago my GP had no online booking at all, and after trying to ring for an appointment any time in the next week several times unsuccessfully I asked 10 minutes after opening if I essentially had to call in the first five minutes in order to get an appointment, and they told me yes.

    Coincidentally CQC rated them inadequate for customer service and administration among other reasons and placed it into special measures later that year and it has merged with 2 other practices and now has an online booking system and has significantly improved in other areas - its amazing how fast things can change.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    AnneJGP said:

    Never mind - Labour have an open doors policy that will soon give us all more time to recover first.
    YOU BRING POLITICS INTO DISREPUTE

    No wonder Liar Liar is number1
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    SeanT said:

    I can see my GP - if I don't specify which doctor I want - in two or three days, and at a time of my choosing. I can see them tomorrow if I am prepared to queue for an hour.

    I live in central London. Are we especially favoured over the rest of the UK?!

    Last time I needed an appointment - just before Easter - the first available GP was over 3 weeks away. That included the 2 bank holidays, of course.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Scott_P said:
    Here we go again. Toxic south of the border.
    I am not so sure it is any more! the SNP budget would hold back Cobyns plans.
  • TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    Which is fake news
    My wife became quite worryingly ill on a Saturday. This only became apparent when the gp surgery which is open on saturday had closed. She was able to go to the local out of hours service virtually immediately. Indeed so soon was the appointment that I was worried I would nor be able to drive her there in time. She was diagnosed and treated and recovered inside 3 - 4 days.
    My 90 year old mother in law was talen to the surgery, I took her, when taken ill and seen even though the official session was over. She has had all kinds of treatments for illnesses including a cancer and no where near has had to wait 3 weeks.

    You know what, just shut the wotsit up with your propaganda peddling.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    isam said:

    Hand in hand! Last seasons 'right wing press'!
    She looks more as though she's supporting/guiding him.
This discussion has been closed.