Missed the last thread -- what's this about letters in Con/LD marginals??
If they are also in LAB/LD seats pointless exercise really.
I hope LDs get completely wiped out and all English seats are either Tory/Lab need to focus minds there are only 2 choices Status Quo or something radically different
I live in a Con/Lab marginal and haven't for a second considered voting for either of those parties yet at this election and nor will I do so between now and polling day. Probably never will ever again.
Conservative support has just not dipped. Not on the doorstep or even in most of these infernal polls. 45% is bloody fantastic. Nothing to suggest we are on for anything other than a comfortable majority.
Have we had an answer yet from @MikeSmithson if the letters in London LD/Con marginals in his name reported in the last thread are genuine?
Yup they are genuine, he approved the message, and they aren't just in LD/Con marginals.
They are being sent in seats across Great Britain.
Wow. I'm amazed that you and @david_herdson are happy with these going out effectively in your names.
They are signed in Mike's name, it's Mike's website, and finally Mike has never told me what I can and can't write, same applies to David.
I've written stuff I know Mike disagrees with but he's always given me 100% freedom when in my threads and when I do a stint as guest editor.
So if OGH hasn't been suppressing your AV magnum opus, who has? Hmmmm....
Next stint as guest editor starts end of this month.
I'll try and publish during said stint.
A lot will depend on the result next Thursday.
I'm not prepared for a Jeremy Corbyn government, which some PBers think is nailed on now.
How many does May need to stay in power? Take out SF = 646 seats. Half = 323. Take away the Unionists = 313.
Try getting the Tories down to 313 on Baxter - Labour need to be well over 40% to achieve it, and now that 20% of the votes are already posted it ain't going to happen. Time for the PB Tories to be thankful for small mercies.
She needs 365 as a minimum according to Tory MPs
The only swing vote that has been cast already is SeanT's.
Conservative support has just not dipped. Not on the doorstep or even in most of these infernal polls. 45% is bloody fantastic. Nothing to suggest we are on for anything other than a comfortable majority.
Except the fact that that 45% is only yielding them a 5% lead in the latest poll.
"Look at the share, not the lead" has to be one of the most bloody stupid mantras I've ever heard. Labour lost the 1951 election despite getting 49%.
A handy reminder of Jeremy Corbyn's shortcomings as a politician.. Twitter Marc Adams @Cranners007 Jun 1 Can I remind people thinking of voting Labour: No Labour leader since 1983 has had the confidence to give Jeremy Corbyn a ministerial post
Like a lot of what Davis says, his social libertarian instincts appeal to me. But he is pro capital punishments (I think?). That is an immoral and utterly stupid position.
Conservative support has just not dipped. Not on the doorstep or even in most of these infernal polls. 45% is bloody fantastic. Nothing to suggest we are on for anything other than a comfortable majority.
Except the fact that that 45% is only yielding them a 5% lead in the latest poll.
"Look at the share, not the lead" has to be one of the most bloody stupid mantras I've ever heard. Labour lost the 1951 election despite getting 49%.
Except Labour's share is soft as butter. Based on non Voters doing something this time they have consistently failed to do before.
Differential turnout is going to be massively in the Conservatives favour.
Conservative support has just not dipped. Not on the doorstep or even in most of these infernal polls. 45% is bloody fantastic. Nothing to suggest we are on for anything other than a comfortable majority.
Except the fact that that 45% is only yielding them a 5% lead in the latest poll.
"Look at the share, not the lead" has to be one of the most bloody stupid mantras I've ever heard. Labour lost the 1951 election despite getting 49%.
The Tory vote is mid to high 40's all along, Lab's rise comes from squeezing the other opposition parties. This is why the Canvas reports and polls are actually fairly well aligned.
@thhamilton: Some say politicians are too influenced by their advisers. But at this exact point in 2015 I advised Ed Miliband not to fall off the stage.
Conservative support has just not dipped. Not on the doorstep or even in most of these infernal polls. 45% is bloody fantastic. Nothing to suggest we are on for anything other than a comfortable majority.
Except the fact that that 45% is only yielding them a 5% lead in the latest poll.
"Look at the share, not the lead" has to be one of the most bloody stupid mantras I've ever heard. Labour lost the 1951 election despite getting 49%.
Except Labour's share is soft as butter. Based on non Voters doing something this time they have consistently failed to do before.
Differential turnout is going to be massively in the Conservatives favour.
Except the pollsters are already downweighting previous non-voters.
If IPSOS-MORI were actually basing their polls on "non voters doing something this time they have consistently failed to do before", then their poll would've given Labour a 3% lead today.
@thhamilton: Some say politicians are too influenced by their advisers. But at this exact point in 2015 I advised Ed Miliband not to fall off the stage.
Surprised they didn't ask the BBC not to have a raised podium. Makes me nervous looking at it!
In the final week the SCon vote recedes badly, they easily take BRS but the remaining Lab vote in DCT tactically votes Mundell out. Labour take East Lothian and hold Ed South while the Lib Dems sweep their target seats leaving it 1.SNP, 2. LD, 3.Lab, 4.Con in Scotland.
Financially ruinous, completely hilarious.
The LDs could end up with six seats from about 220,000 votes in Scotland. And with just a couple in the rest of the GB from about two million votes.
She just looks and sounds duplicitous on Brexit. Anyway, who gives a fuck? I'm breaking a week of sobriety by hitting up a Makers Mark julep made with amazing 59p mint from the local Turkish supermarket.
Conservative support has just not dipped. Not on the doorstep or even in most of these infernal polls. 45% is bloody fantastic. Nothing to suggest we are on for anything other than a comfortable majority.
Except the fact that that 45% is only yielding them a 5% lead in the latest poll.
"Look at the share, not the lead" has to be one of the most bloody stupid mantras I've ever heard. Labour lost the 1951 election despite getting 49%.
Except Labour's share is soft as butter. Based on non Voters doing something this time they have consistently failed to do before.
Differential turnout is going to be massively in the Conservatives favour.
Except the pollsters are already downweighting previous non-voters.
If IPSOS-MORI were actually basing their polls on "non voters doing something this time they have consistently failed to do before", then their poll would've given Labour a 3% lead today.
No, Ipsos do not weight in that way like ICM. The difference between the two figures is only between all respondents and likelihood to vote.
In the final week the SCon vote recedes badly, they easily take BRS but the remaining Lab vote in DCT tactically votes Mundell out. Labour take East Lothian and hold Ed South while the Lib Dems sweep their target seats leaving it 1.SNP, 2. LD, 3.Lab, 4.Con in Scotland.
Financially ruinous, completely hilarious.
The LDs could end up with six seats from about 220,000 votes in Scotland. And with just a couple in the rest of the GB from about two million votes.
I think Scotland 2017 will be in PPE courses for the foreseeable future on the subject of the absolute maximal extreme limits of tactical voting.
I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
The liberal stance is that it is no-one's business but his own. A nicety I suppose.
It's a tricky one. If he just said "Being gay is wrong" he'd be toast, but saying "Being gay is wrong, I know this from my invisible friend Big Nobodaddy" seems to be more, rather than even less, acceptable.
Did he say that? The correct response is, what I think about gay sex is none of your business and what you think or do is none of mine.
Tisn't, actually, it is very much my business if you aspire (however laughably) to govern me.
I don't want to intrude on private grief but I get the impression you really don't like her!
I encountered her many years ago on a private matter. I was not pleased with the way the dialogue concluded but that is life. Everyday of this election campaign I have doubts about voting Tory but in the end I have concluded that Corbyn is a dramatically worse proposition as PM.
Given how bad TMay is at this type of thing, she's doing alright so far. If it gets onto the 'nicking your old Mum's house' tax, might get a bit shaky.
@thhamilton: Some say politicians are too influenced by their advisers. But at this exact point in 2015 I advised Ed Miliband not to fall off the stage.
Given how bad TMay is at this type of thing, she's doing alright so far. If it gets onto the 'nicking your old Mum's house' tax, might get a bit shaky.
I think she had a fairly good answer on that last time though.
Given how bad TMay is at this type of thing, she's doing alright so far. If it gets onto the 'nicking your old Mum's house' tax, might get a bit shaky.
I think she had a fairly good answer on that last time though.
Given how bad TMay is at this type of thing, she's doing alright so far. If it gets onto the 'nicking your old Mum's house' tax, might get a bit shaky.
I think she had a fairly good answer on that last time though.
Here it comes....
If they were doing debate prep, it would be over and over on this issue.
May sounds a bit nervous tbh. Have to wonder why she ran for the leadership....
She has definitely lost confidence. We are also used to very polished politicians.
Yes, the well polished politician though is usually always replaced by a dull one from the same party. Think Wilson > Callaghan or Thatcher > Major or Blair > Brown and finally Cameron > May.
People seem to like the contrast and lets remember Tony Blair has managed to go from record breaking popularity to record breaking unpopularity. So slick is not always good.
I hadn't seen that Tim Farron has again refused to say whether he thinks it's a sin to be homosexual.
Does he have some kind of death wish?
Isn't he entitled to his personal views?
Not really. I have tried to word an answer three times and each time I have deleted before posting.
He is a socially conservative Evangelical Christian, but one who doesn't impose his views on others.
Except that he actually voted against banning discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. If that measure had failed it would have had a very real effect on others.
Comments
Is that English?
@ShippersUnbound: May criticised for failing to answer questions by a questioner in a live TV question and answer question
Performing stronger than previous weeks so far
The young girl on QT asking the first question and then following up is doing extremely well.
Debating with your opponents and taking questions from an audience are very different.
"Look at the share, not the lead" has to be one of the most bloody stupid mantras I've ever heard. Labour lost the 1951 election despite getting 49%.
Only Slight Dribble From Bedwetters So Far ....
Twitter
Marc Adams @Cranners007 Jun 1
Can I remind people thinking of voting Labour: No Labour leader since 1983 has had the confidence to give Jeremy Corbyn a ministerial post
Good line - makes her look principled.
Like a lot of what Davis says, his social libertarian instincts appeal to me. But he is pro capital punishments (I think?). That is an immoral and utterly stupid position.
Differential turnout is going to be massively in the Conservatives favour.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/ashcroft-model-update-new-potential-majorities-seat-seat-estimates/
We need to get on to shakier ground
Grannys House Theft
NHS
Schools
AUSTERITY
If IPSOS-MORI were actually basing their polls on "non voters doing something this time they have consistently failed to do before", then their poll would've given Labour a 3% lead today.
This has never been an interrogation so far
More trouble coming later I'm sure on other topics.
I encountered her many years ago on a private matter. I was not pleased with the way the dialogue concluded but that is life. Everyday of this election campaign I have doubts about voting Tory but in the end I have concluded that Corbyn is a dramatically worse proposition as PM.
Still nothing on Social Care
Is it just to my Northern ears, or does May pronounce "collapse" very weirdly (as in when she says "our social care system might collapse")?
People seem to like the contrast and lets remember Tony Blair has managed to go from record breaking popularity to record breaking unpopularity. So slick is not always good.
Starting to struggle with disabled bloke.