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  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    Con seat around 40-50 too high IMHO
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    This has to be the worst bet of this election

    SNP to win every Scottish seat and Scotland to beat England on June 10th - 20/1

    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/10978008/SNP+to+win+every+Scottish+Seat.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    Interesting.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Alistair said:

    Norm said:

    Barnesian said:

    Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

    I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

    One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

    Con 302 (-2)
    Lab 269 (+3)
    SNP 44 (-2)

    It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

    Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
    IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
    Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Charles said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

    I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
    They've caused reputational damage to their employer through their actions. Yes, technically they might have been legally entitled to do what they did but anyone with half a brain should be able to exercise their judgement in a case like that.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    RobD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    Depends if he was part of the youth vote that normally turns up.
    And how old he is; my mum is 73. And which way the son is voting. Otherwise you might be on to something.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    I'm trusting the pensioners to have more sense than when they voted leave last time round.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Perhaps Jezz has calculated that if he goes to marginals there's more chance of hostile interventions from members of the public; safe seats, on the other hand, and he can come across as the messiah before vast and adoring crowds. It's the latter that has largely contributed to his upwards revision during this campaign, so good move.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    tlg86 said:

    Thanks AndyJS, very useful.

    Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?

    IIRC the SNP were ahead of the Tories until 2am in terms of seats.
    What time on Friday am d'ye think the Scottish Tories will overtake the SNP?
    2022

    So before 'The' Rangers win the SPL for the first time then?
    Difficult for #55 to be the SPL as any fule noes its the SPFL now.

    D- for trolling. Must do better.
    A+ for biting.
    Proof that the brain drain from North to south is real.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Charles said:

    meanwhile Erdington and Edgbaston have had email calls out to help defend them :/

    Both Corbyn gains...
    Thought they were both labour seats?
    Think that was the joke...
    Yes it was to be fair
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    I'm trusting the pensioners to have more sense than when they voted leave last time round.
    Yes, surely turnout should be nearer 90%... :o
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    When is the first poll due out? Hopefully it will stop the jitters...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    RoyalBlue said:

    When is the first poll due out? Hopefully it will stop the jitters...

    No doubt it'll show Labour ahead. :p
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The real damage was done to Kezia Dugdale, a round directly to the foot. The First Minister revealed that after the EU referendum Miss Dugdale confided in her that Scottish Labour might ditch its opposition to independence. The Labour leader mugged and gasped but didn’t explicitly, definitively deny the allegation. If Miss Dugdale did say it, it was rank amateurism but it also tells you something about the character of Nicola Sturgeon that she would disclose a private phone conversation on a television broadcast. Class, unlike her slinky shoes, comes cheap.

    https://stephendaisley.com/2017/06/07/kezia-took-a-round-right-in-the-foot/
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    RobD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    When is the first poll due out? Hopefully it will stop the jitters...

    No doubt it'll show Labour ahead. :p
    Hides behind sofa
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Rhubarb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alot of the Corbyn strongholds have been REALLY REALLY strongholds, like Labour down to their last 50 seat strongholds.

    Brum Ladywood last night, Gateshead. Stuff way more nailed on than Bolsover.
    TBF the Ladywood one was just outside the city centre and was reasonably accessible. OTOH, they did absolutely nothing to publicise it to the average man on New Street.
    They didn't publicise the rally in Leeds Central to at least one party member in Leeds Central CLP - i.e. me! I wonder if Jezza told Hilary Benn he was coming?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    RoyalBlue said:

    RobD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    When is the first poll due out? Hopefully it will stop the jitters...

    No doubt it'll show Labour ahead. :p
    Hides behind sofa
    Heh... what are you going to be like when the exit poll is due? :D
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

    I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

    My bad...

  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Pulpstar said:

    Alot of the Corbyn strongholds have been REALLY REALLY strongholds, like Labour down to their last 50 seat strongholds.

    Brum Ladywood last night, Gateshead. Stuff way more nailed on than Bolsover.
    Remember that, early on, Labour candidates did not want to be associated with Corbyn. So he could only go where he was wanted.
    Ladywood used to be Neville Chamberlain's seat. Oswald Moseley in the Labour cause got within 77 in 1924 and he decamped to Edgbaston.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

    I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

    My bad...

    Oops. :naughty:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

    SurveyMonkey? :p
    It's cheaper than asking voters.....they work for peanuts.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited June 2017
    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Evershed, I was tempted by this as well:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8p1BedwyFKY

    Mr. Eagles, wise choice to go on a podcast. That way, your wardrobe won't blind anyone, frighten children, or induce epileptic fits.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Charles said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

    I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
    They've caused reputational damage to their employer through their actions. Yes, technically they might have been legally entitled to do what they did but anyone with half a brain should be able to exercise their judgement in a case like that.
    I hold no brief for traffic wardens but I imagine they have virtually zero discretion to refrain from ticketing a ticketable car, because if they did, it would be an invitation to bribery. So they may have been snookered either way (assuming as I do that "swooped" may be Sun speak for "went there in the normal course of duty).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:
    Anyone made a joke about Sturgeon working for the CIA/ US intel? :p
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    Con seat around 40-50 too high IMHO
    I hope you are right Mark. Not holding my breath, however.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Charles said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

    I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
    Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Norm said:

    Alistair said:

    Norm said:

    Barnesian said:

    Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

    I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

    One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

    Con 302 (-2)
    Lab 269 (+3)
    SNP 44 (-2)

    It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

    Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
    IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
    Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.
    And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    Con seat around 40-50 too high IMHO
    I hope you are right Mark. Not holding my breath, however.
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects

    Our Nowcast for this morning:

    Con: 353 (+23)
    Lab: 219 (-13
    SNP: 46 (-10)
    LDem: 9 (+1)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    YouGov Wales vs 2015 is:

    Lab +9
    Con +7

    If applied across all of GB that would give C45, L40.

    So do we think Lab will do better or worse than average in Wales? Or maybe in line?
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Is there another ICM poll due? If memory serves they did their last EU ref poll a few days before June 23rd showing an Out lead that ended up being pretty much bang on the money.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

    I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

    My bad...

    My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    SNIP

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Likewise in Leeds - why have we got GOTV effort in Leeds Central? Anyone wanting to get involved should be heading to Leeds North West or Morley & Outwood.
  • llefllef Posts: 298

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    which plaid seat do you see falling? carmarthen east to labour surge??
    (the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    Con seat around 40-50 too high IMHO
    I hope you are right Mark. Not holding my breath, however.
    To be clear, I regard this as incredibly hard to read. But I felt I would be cheating if I didn't put my best guess up.

    Mark might well be right.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Regarding Alastairs betting advice on the last thread on Lib Dem seats.. if you have a nice Betfair Sportsbook account you can effectively back Lib Dems to get fewer than 20 seats at 1/3 which cant be bad
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Yorkcity said:

    Charles said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

    I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
    Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.
    Eh? Most parking attendants in London are employed by private companies contracted by local authorities. And few are so blatant as to link pay directly to tickets issued, nowadays, but there are various more cunning ways in which they incentivise 'performance'. I am not even sure that the Police employ any traffic wardens nowadays?
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

    I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
    They've caused reputational damage to their employer through their actions. Yes, technically they might have been legally entitled to do what they did but anyone with half a brain should be able to exercise their judgement in a case like that.
    I hold no brief for traffic wardens but I imagine they have virtually zero discretion to refrain from ticketing a ticketable car, because if they did, it would be an invitation to bribery. So they may have been snookered either way (assuming as I do that "swooped" may be Sun speak for "went there in the normal course of duty).
    It reminds of sending lorries into the B&Q at Wandsworth.
    If you couldn't get into site within a couple of minutes (as they were unloading an earlier delivery) you would be watched on CCTV and then a traffic warden would swoop round on a moped and ticket the truck.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TFL has already said they'll be cancelled, but one has to wonder at the crassness of issuing them in the first place.
    Rubbish. Makes you proud to be British.

    Keep calm and carry on issuing tickets.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    SNIP

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Likewise in Leeds - why have we got GOTV effort in Leeds Central? Anyone wanting to get involved should be heading to Leeds North West or Morley & Outwood.
    Maybe there is something to the idea that Corbyn and McDonnell are putting great store by the Labour national percentage vote and want to drive up turnout in their safe seats.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Conservatives don't talk about their voting intentions in public.

    They will join in criticism of Theresa May, and then quietly vote for her anyway.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited June 2017
    Alistair said:

    Norm said:

    Alistair said:

    Norm said:

    Barnesian said:

    Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

    I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

    One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

    Con 302 (-2)
    Lab 269 (+3)
    SNP 44 (-2)

    It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

    Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
    IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
    Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.
    And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.
    The SNP has probably learned a lot about the prospects for its referendum from its door knocking these last few weeks.

    If May loses, there is a massive question mark over Brexit, regardless of whatever fudge the Labour Party put in its manifesto. If parties that are fundamentally opposed to Brexit (which is all apart from UKIP and the Tories) are in the majority, I wouldn't bet on us actually leaving.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Since we're doing predictions, here's mine:

    Con 372
    Lab 206
    SNP 43
    LD 7
    Plaid 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    UKIP 0
    NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)

    Con maj 76.

    There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamieRoss7: It's notable how quickly Sturgeon has gone from ridiculing Corbyn's supposed ineptitude to trying to piggy-back on his surge in popularity.

    The Labour pitch is that there will be no deal. They will propose a Queen's Speech and dare (or double dare) fellow "progressives" to vote against it "in a pact with the Toarieeees"
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    If we're doing forecasts, I'll stick with my 60-80 seat majority. The octo-lemur, who are not always truthful but got the referendum spot on, claim it will be 102.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
    How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    llef said:

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    which plaid seat do you see falling? carmarthen east to labour surge??
    (the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)
    I'm going to have to name the pockets as well as sink the balls?

    I'd love to say that it was superscientific, but it wasn't. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Arfon both look vulnerable (the latter because of Labour's sharp rise in the polls). They could easily lose both. Then again, they could take Ceredigion as well.

    Two was just a best guess of a range of possibilities.

    It's emphatically just for amusement only.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

    I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

    My bad...

    My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.

    I am always tremendously impressed by stories of people going to extreme lengths to get their vote in, given the voting paradox that no single vote has ever made a difference in a UK G.E. Conversely I think the courts should come down like a ton of bricks on every instance of voting fraud, by anyone in any circumstances, because it is tantamount to stealing that amount of effort.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited June 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Norm said:

    Alistair said:

    Norm said:

    Barnesian said:

    Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

    I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

    One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

    Con 302 (-2)
    Lab 269 (+3)
    SNP 44 (-2)

    It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

    Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
    IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
    Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.
    And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.
    The SNP has probably learned a lot about the prospects for its referendum from its door knocking these last few weeks.

    If May loses, there is a massive question mark over Brexit, regardless of whatever fudge the Labour Party put in its manifesto. If parties that are fundamentally opposed to Brexit (which is all apart from UKIP and the Tories) are in the majority, I wouldn't bet on us actually leaving.
    Labour would U-turn on the manifesto commitment to leave the EU? :p
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022

    RobD said:

    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

    SurveyMonkey? :p
    I'm tired, busy, I've got my debut media performance tonight, and it's my girlfriend's birthday tomorrow.

    #Stressed.
    Good luck.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited June 2017
    My PT's girlfriend is voting Conservative because she saw the Diane Abbott gaffes videos on facebook
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 101

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

    I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
    Isn't that a core competence?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Norm said:

    Alistair said:

    Norm said:

    Barnesian said:

    Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

    I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

    One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

    Con 302 (-2)
    Lab 269 (+3)
    SNP 44 (-2)

    It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

    Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
    IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
    Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.
    And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.
    The SNP has probably learned a lot about the prospects for its referendum from its door knocking these last few weeks.

    If May loses, there is a massive question mark over Brexit, regardless of whatever fudge the Labour Party put in its manifesto. If parties that are fundamentally opposed to Brexit (which is all apart from UKIP and the Tories) are in the majority, I wouldn't bet on us actually leaving.
    Labour would U-turn on the manifesto commitment to leave the EU? :p
    The political earthquake that would be the Tories losing, from the commanding position they enjoyed when the election was called, would inevitably call the whole process into question. All but a handful of Labour MPs are remainers, and the exceptions are cancelled out by Tory remainers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    chrisb said:


    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire

    If we only win one seat in Scotland, this would be a good one to win. :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Norm said:

    Alistair said:

    Norm said:

    Barnesian said:

    Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

    I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

    One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

    Con 302 (-2)
    Lab 269 (+3)
    SNP 44 (-2)

    It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

    Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
    IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
    Really? I thought the SNP would demand one as a price for their support.
    And it would get a resounding No at the polls. Especially given that Lab would go for soft Brexit which shoots Sturgeon's fox when it comes to the justification of having the IndyRef.
    The SNP has probably learned a lot about the prospects for its referendum from its door knocking these last few weeks.

    If May loses, there is a massive question mark over Brexit, regardless of whatever fudge the Labour Party put in its manifesto. If parties that are fundamentally opposed to Brexit (which is all apart from UKIP and the Tories) are in the majority, I wouldn't bet on us actually leaving.
    Which is why there will be a small Tory to Labour swing in Remain areas outside Scotland but a big Labour to Tory swing in Leave areas in England and Wales
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Corbynism sweeps 'Warwick and Leamington'

    F*ck me, I'll believe it when I see it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    meanwhile Erdington and Edgbaston have had email calls out to help defend them :/

    Edgbaston is 29th Tory target from Lab so be consistent with a 70 maj

    Erdington Tory landslide
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    isam said:

    Regarding Alastairs betting advice on the last thread on Lib Dem seats.. if you have a nice Betfair Sportsbook account you can effectively back Lib Dems to get fewer than 20 seats at 1/3 which cant be bad

    That's pretty much free money, given the LDs have lost share relative to the Conservatives and Labour since the last election.

    I'd combine it with a bet on the LibDems holding Orkney & Shetland, which is nowhere near as marginal as the 2015 result suggests. (I would also point out that O&S is a staggeringly small constituency.) My guess is that the LDs will get more than 50% of the vote and the SNP will be sub 30%.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Isam, PT?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy J might just be a PB God :D

    He won everyone about a million quid at the ref and didn't even get POTY! :lol:
    Yeah but that election is usually rigged by JackW.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Yes, I will be in Ilford North tonight and knocking up the vote there before polls close tomorrow evening too
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

    Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Ishmael_Z said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

    I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

    My bad...

    My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.

    I am always tremendously impressed by stories of people going to extreme lengths to get their vote in, given the voting paradox that no single vote has ever made a difference in a UK G.E. Conversely I think the courts should come down like a ton of bricks on every instance of voting fraud, by anyone in any circumstances, because it is tantamount to stealing that amount of effort.
    My first GE was 2005. I got two trains and the underground to Kent from Bath (where I was living as student) to vote Tory in one of the safest Tory seats in the country. The definition of pointless.

    At that time Bath was safely Lib Dem, of course, so not registering there didn't matter.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Since we're doing predictions, here's mine:

    Con 372
    Lab 206
    SNP 43
    LD 7
    Plaid 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    UKIP 0
    NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)

    Con maj 76.

    There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.

    If the Tories are gaining 42 seats on 2015 and Labour only losing 26 I don't get where those extra 16 Tory seats will come from?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
    How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
    Here's the Electoral Calculus page:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Leyton+and+Wanstead

    Doesn't look like it includes Stratford, no.

    Shame on me for having to look that up as I used to live there too!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Much as I'm reticent about speaking ill of my colleagues in Halifax, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that it if Con would gain a lot of other seats in Yorkshire before Halifax. It won't happen in hung parliament territory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynism sweeps 'Warwick and Leamington'

    F*ck me, I'll believe it when I see it.

    Having lived there as a student I could see Labour scraping a win in Leamington through the student vote but the Tories romping home in Warwick to win the seat overall
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Brom, some SNP, some Lib Dem? Be a lot, though.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

    I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

    My bad...

    My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.

    I am always tremendously impressed by stories of people going to extreme lengths to get their vote in, given the voting paradox that no single vote has ever made a difference in a UK G.E. Conversely I think the courts should come down like a ton of bricks on every instance of voting fraud, by anyone in any circumstances, because it is tantamount to stealing that amount of effort.
    My first GE was 2005. I got two trains and the underground to Kent from Bath (where I was living as student) to vote Tory in one of the safest Tory seats in the country. The definition of pointless.

    At that time Bath was safely Lib Dem, of course, so not registering there didn't matter.
    I salute you! You were absolutely right to do that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

    I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

    My bad...

    My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him.

    Ha!
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Regarding Alastairs betting advice on the last thread on Lib Dem seats.. if you have a nice Betfair Sportsbook account you can effectively back Lib Dems to get fewer than 20 seats at 1/3 which cant be bad

    That's pretty much free money, given the LDs have lost share relative to the Conservatives and Labour since the last election.

    I'd combine it with a bet on the LibDems holding Orkney & Shetland, which is nowhere near as marginal as the 2015 result suggests. (I would also point out that O&S is a staggeringly small constituency.) My guess is that the LDs will get more than 50% of the vote and the SNP will be sub 30%.
    yeah, bet max on the sportsbook's 1.9 10-19 seats, then have 0.42 of that max on 4.5 under 10 seats on the exchange. The under 10 is prob better though so could have a bigger factor than 0.42
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Charles said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

    I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
    Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.
    Eh? Most parking attendants in London are employed by private companies contracted by local authorities. And few are so blatant as to link pay directly to tickets issued, nowadays, but there are various more cunning ways in which they incentivise 'performance'. I am not even sure that the Police employ any traffic wardens nowadays?
    Yes correct parking attendants are employed by councils and private companies.Thete might be some police traffic wardens in parts of the county but hardly any. The article said traffic wardens they do not exist anymore in most cities but the term is used by the media.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    RobD said:

    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

    SurveyMonkey? :p
    Has Plato's PollCat reported any figures?
    I do miss not getting my regular updates from Plato's Pussy...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022
    Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.

    A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.

    There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.

    There are shy Tories. Lots of them.
  • llefllef Posts: 298

    llef said:

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    which plaid seat do you see falling? carmarthen east to labour surge??
    (the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)
    I'm going to have to name the pockets as well as sink the balls?

    I'd love to say that it was superscientific, but it wasn't. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Arfon both look vulnerable (the latter because of Labour's sharp rise in the polls). They could easily lose both. Then again, they could take Ceredigion as well.

    Two was just a best guess of a range of possibilities.

    It's emphatically just for amusement only.
    ok fair enough - thanks for your thoughts and fwiw i agree with them!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    One for the ever insatiable PB Eck fan club.

    https://twitter.com/AlexSalmond/status/872476330520186881
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited June 2017

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
    How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
    The boundary between the two seats is just north of the old Wanstead Hospital site on Hermon Hill.

    The street stalls in Wanstead High Street will be former Labour councillor Greg Eglin and his pals from Snaresbrook Ward, who love doing street stalls there regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. If one of Kim's missiles reaches us, when we emerge from our bunkers there will be a Labour street stall outside the Co-op in Wanstead High Street.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Kensington Labour ?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited June 2017

    Mr. Isam, PT?

    Personal Trainer don't you know!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynism sweeps 'Warwick and Leamington'

    F*ck me, I'll believe it when I see it.

    Of course it won't happen. But Corbyn was here earlier in the campaign. He drew a crowd, including many of my daughter's friends:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/861618823316869120?lang=en

    I expect the Tories to increase the size of their majority.



  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Mr. Brom, some SNP, some Lib Dem? Be a lot, though.

    He has SNP 7 down, Libs, UKIP and Plaid 1 down each. Maybe I'm not understanding churn of seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    One for the ever insatiable PB Eck fan club.

    twitter.com/AlexSalmond/status/872476330520186881

    #fieldsofgrass more like

    (I await the pedants)
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Canterbury will not go Labour even if it's the one seat in Kent slightly trending that way. It still had a comfortable Leave majority last year as did all of Kent apart from Royal Tunbridge Wells..
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    Since we're doing predictions, here's mine:

    Con 372
    Lab 206
    SNP 43
    LD 7
    Plaid 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    UKIP 0
    NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)

    Con maj 76.

    There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.

    That's very close to mine; 368-202-48-7. I agree about unexpected results and I will especially interested to see how the Tory vote stands up in home counties remain seats; I've got a feeling that there might be some surprisingly close results there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.

    A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.

    There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.

    There are shy Tories. Lots of them.

    Should have asked why they are spending £10bn on students rather than cancelling the Tory cuts.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    currystar said:

    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Kensington Labour ?
    Portsmouth South? With Corbyn? And no students?
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 101
    RobD said:

    chrisb said:


    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire

    If we only win one seat in Scotland, this would be a good one to win. :D
    Perhaps I could have been clearer those were just the changes in the Yougov projections compared to yesterday! The full list of SCon seats they are projecting is as follows:

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
    East Renfrewshire
    Moray
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Perth and North Perthshire
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynism sweeps 'Warwick and Leamington'

    F*ck me, I'll believe it when I see it.

    Of course it won't happen. But Corbyn was here earlier in the campaign. He drew a crowd, including many of my daughter's friends:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/861618823316869120?lang=en

    I expect the Tories to increase the size of their majority.



    Slightly sinister the way JC says "will win" all the time now. It was on the front page of The Mirror too
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    chrisb said:

    RobD said:

    chrisb said:


    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire

    If we only win one seat in Scotland, this would be a good one to win. :D
    Perhaps I could have been clearer those were just the changes in the Yougov projections compared to yesterday! The full list of SCon seats they are projecting is as follows:

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
    East Renfrewshire
    Moray
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Perth and North Perthshire
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
    *faints*
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    One for the ever insatiable PB Eck fan club.

    twitter.com/AlexSalmond/status/872476330520186881

    #fieldsofgrass more like

    (I await the pedants)
    That's not grass, it's wheat or barley.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Lab MPs 100-149 @ 17.5 on the exchange.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    One for the ever insatiable PB Eck fan club.

    twitter.com/AlexSalmond/status/872476330520186881

    #fieldsofgrass more like

    (I await the pedants)
    That's not grass, it's wheat or barley.
    :p
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    llef said:

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    which plaid seat do you see falling? carmarthen east to labour surge??
    (the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)
    I'm going to have to name the pockets as well as sink the balls?

    I'd love to say that it was superscientific, but it wasn't. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Arfon both look vulnerable (the latter because of Labour's sharp rise in the polls). They could easily lose both. Then again, they could take Ceredigion as well.

    Two was just a best guess of a range of possibilities.

    It's emphatically just for amusement only.
    I suspect Ceredgion is more vulnerable than it looks. The LDs need to persuade the local Tories to vote tactically to keep Plaid out.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

    Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
    That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    currystar said:

    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Kensington Labour ?
    Portsmouth South? With Corbyn? And no students?
    Simply the flaw in YouGov's model, importing demographically similar but politically different voters into unusual seats from those surrounding. Kensington will be safe Tory, despite all of its well off remainers, and Labour will be third in Portsmouth South.
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 101

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynism sweeps 'Warwick and Leamington'

    F*ck me, I'll believe it when I see it.

    Of course it won't happen. But Corbyn was here earlier in the campaign. He drew a crowd, including many of my daughter's friends:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/861618823316869120?lang=en

    I expect the Tories to increase the size of their majority.



    That's actually the second time he's been to that seat in the campaign.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022
    How well will Corbyn/McDonnell take their defeat on Friday? Graciously, or will there be defiance, and a call to arms?

    McDonnell has argued for mass protests in the past in response to political decisions he doesn't like.

    If I were the police, I'd be preparing for civil disorder in places like London and Manchester over the weekend.

    They won't take it well.
This discussion has been closed.