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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    One for the ever insatiable PB Eck fan club.

    I thought you were posting this version

    https://twitter.com/generalboles/status/872478487109652480
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    One for the ever insatiable PB Eck fan club.

    https://twitter.com/AlexSalmond/status/872476330520186881

    Bye Eck!

    (Please!!)
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 101
    currystar said:

    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Kensington Labour ?
    By 0.1%, says the Yougov model
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:

    One for the ever insatiable PB Eck fan club.

    I thought you were posting this version

    https://twitter.com/generalboles/status/872478487109652480
    Brilliant!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Brom said:

    Since we're doing predictions, here's mine:

    Con 372
    Lab 206
    SNP 43
    LD 7
    Plaid 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    UKIP 0
    NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)

    Con maj 76.

    There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.

    If the Tories are gaining 42 seats on 2015 and Labour only losing 26 I don't get where those extra 16 Tory seats will come from?
    The SNP. Though there'll be more churn than that. I think Labour will themselves take a few back off the Nats, and the Lib Dems will nibble there too at the edges. Indeed, I could well see more than half the Lib Dem parliamentary party being newbies.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Scott_P said:

    One for the ever insatiable PB Eck fan club.

    I thought you were posting this version

    https://twitter.com/generalboles/status/872478487109652480
    Genuine lol!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    chrisb said:

    currystar said:

    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Kensington Labour ?
    By 0.1%, says the Yougov model
    More believable than Warwick & Leamington.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: Those final pitches in full. May: "I can negotiate Brexit." Corbyn: "Diane Abbott won't be Home Secretary."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Yorkcity said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Charles said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

    I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
    Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.
    Eh? Most parking attendants in London are employed by private companies contracted by local authorities. And few are so blatant as to link pay directly to tickets issued, nowadays, but there are various more cunning ways in which they incentivise 'performance'. I am not even sure that the Police employ any traffic wardens nowadays?
    Yes correct parking attendants are employed by councils and private companies.Thete might be some police traffic wardens in parts of the county but hardly any. The article said traffic wardens they do not exist anymore in most cities but the term is used by the media.
    So your earlier reference to police traffic wardens was a red herring.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited June 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

    I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

    My bad...

    My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.

    I am always tremendously impressed by stories of people going to extreme lengths to get their vote in, given the voting paradox that no single vote has ever made a difference in a UK G.E. Conversely I think the courts should come down like a ton of bricks on every instance of voting fraud, by anyone in any circumstances, because it is tantamount to stealing that amount of effort.
    You never know. I was so sure that Mark Oaten didn't have an earthly in Winchester in 1997[1] that I went down to Christchurch to help Diana Maddock, not that it made any difference. Fortunately I did go and vote before heading to the station which made Oaten's majority 2 instead of 1.

    And allegedly there was an election under FPTP in one of the British African territories just prior to independence where the winning party won by one seat, and won one of those seats by one vote!

    [1] Plus I couldn't stand the man.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.

    A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.

    There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.

    There are shy Tories. Lots of them.

    You might have asked why in that case they want to go on giving WFA to the rich, but I can understand why you didn't!
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    chrisb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynism sweeps 'Warwick and Leamington'

    F*ck me, I'll believe it when I see it.

    Of course it won't happen. But Corbyn was here earlier in the campaign. He drew a crowd, including many of my daughter's friends:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/861618823316869120?lang=en

    I expect the Tories to increase the size of their majority.



    That's actually the second time he's been to that seat in the campaign.
    He ran out of jam to sell the first time and had to restock.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    IanB2 said:

    currystar said:

    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Kensington Labour ?
    Portsmouth South? With Corbyn? And no students?
    Simply the flaw in YouGov's model, importing demographically similar but politically different voters into unusual seats from those surrounding. Kensington will be safe Tory, despite all of its well off remainers, and Labour will be third in Portsmouth South.
    Surely any model should pass the common sense test, or it should not be used?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    RobD said:

    Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.

    A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.

    There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.

    There are shy Tories. Lots of them.

    Should have asked why they are spending £10bn on students rather than cancelling the Tory cuts.
    They aren't interested in listening, Rob. But, they do mark you down and judge you as "a Tory", if you challenge it.

    In my professional life, with people I need to work with and have excellent relationships with, every single day, it simply isn't worth it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

    I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

    My bad...

    My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him.

    Ha!
    So he needs to make a day trip back to Nottingham tomorrow?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Brom, ah, I forgot UKIP and Plaid.

    Mr. Isam, very la-di-da.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    chrisb said:

    currystar said:

    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Kensington Labour ?
    By 0.1%, says the Yougov model
    That really would be amazing, especially if the tories score 43%+ nationally
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    JackW said:

    Good afternoon Conservative Bedwetters and watchers alike.

    Just had the last of the "JackW Contacts Dozen" come through. Pushed out 15 with 12 returns. Looking to post an executive summary by 5:30pm.

    This will also include an updated eve of poll JWCBI

    30 minutes... The anticipation is rising...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.

    A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.

    There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.

    There are shy Tories. Lots of them.

    Should have asked why they are spending £10bn on students rather than cancelling the Tory cuts.
    They aren't interested in listening, Rob. But, they do mark you down and judge you as "a Tory", if you challenge it.

    In my professional life, with people I need to work with and have excellent relationships with, every single day, it simply isn't worth it.
    Agreed, better to just stay quiet.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn

    A tectonic shift indeed. Educated-but-none-too-bright has been the bedrock of the Conservative Party for generations.

    (g,d&r)
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    SNIP

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Likewise in Leeds - why have we got GOTV effort in Leeds Central? Anyone wanting to get involved should be heading to Leeds North West or Morley & Outwood.
    York Central is awash with Labour posters for Rachael Maskell.1/10 Labour 5/1 Conservative both Corbyn and May have been here.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.

    I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn
  • Brom said:

    Since we're doing predictions, here's mine:

    Con 372
    Lab 206
    SNP 43
    LD 7
    Plaid 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    UKIP 0
    NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)

    Con maj 76.

    There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.

    If the Tories are gaining 42 seats on 2015 and Labour only losing 26 I don't get where those extra 16 Tory seats will come from?
    The SNP. Though there'll be more churn than that. I think Labour will themselves take a few back off the Nats, and the Lib Dems will nibble there too at the edges. Indeed, I could well see more than half the Lib Dem parliamentary party being newbies.
    If you think the Cons will be on 372 that is a maj of 94 not 76
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    How well will Corbyn/McDonnell take their defeat on Friday? Graciously, or will there be defiance, and a call to arms?

    McDonnell has argued for mass protests in the past in response to political decisions he doesn't like.

    If I were the police, I'd be preparing for civil disorder in places like London and Manchester over the weekend.

    They won't take it well.

    Jezza is a man of peace, love and solidarity. What makes you think there will be civil disorder?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Those final pitches in full. May: "I can negotiate Brexit." Corbyn: "Diane Abbott won't be Home Secretary."

    When someone said 'anyone but Dianne Abbott' he did rather take them at their word.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2017

    For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.

    I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn

    I've read it and he is pretty scathing about Theresa May as well.

    Edit: http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-why-we-believe-this-country-needs-a-strong-conservative-team-as-the-next-a3558971.html
  • llefllef Posts: 298
    rcs1000 said:

    llef said:

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    which plaid seat do you see falling? carmarthen east to labour surge??
    (the mid& west subample out today was better for plaid - poor, but better)
    I'm going to have to name the pockets as well as sink the balls?

    I'd love to say that it was superscientific, but it wasn't. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr and Arfon both look vulnerable (the latter because of Labour's sharp rise in the polls). They could easily lose both. Then again, they could take Ceredigion as well.

    Two was just a best guess of a range of possibilities.

    It's emphatically just for amusement only.
    I suspect Ceredgion is more vulnerable than it looks. The LDs need to persuade the local Tories to vote tactically to keep Plaid out.
    The 2017 plaid candidate is less "controversial" than the 2015 one, so there might be less tactical voting as a consequence.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited June 2017

    IanB2 said:

    currystar said:

    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Kensington Labour ?
    Portsmouth South? With Corbyn? And no students?
    Simply the flaw in YouGov's model, importing demographically similar but politically different voters into unusual seats from those surrounding. Kensington will be safe Tory, despite all of its well off remainers, and Labour will be third in Portsmouth South.
    Surely any model should pass the common sense test, or it should not be used?
    YouGov have been brave to publish their seat forecasts.

    For their intention is to go beyond the normal national VI poll, using the power of their 50,000 strong panel and their huge databank of demographic data. But they have always been clear that it's a model, built from seat-level upwards to try and predict the national result, and not an algorithm to forecast the result in every single seat. Their hope is that the errors, which they clearly expect, will cancel each other out at national level such that their model provides the best forecast of the national result.

    Personally, I remain concerned that the inbuilt bias in their panel will undermine the otherwise excellent work they've done in modelling voting behaviour.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Norm said:

    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Canterbury will not go Labour even if it's the one seat in Kent slightly trending that way. It still had a comfortable Leave majority last year as did all of Kent apart from Royal Tunbridge Wells..
    If Canterbury goes to Labour then Corbyn will be proclaiming the Socialist Republic of Britain on Friday morning.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    RobD said:

    One for the ever insatiable PB Eck fan club.

    twitter.com/AlexSalmond/status/872476330520186881

    #fieldsofgrass more like

    (I await the pedants)
    If May had spoken about running around on grass that really would have been a story.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
    How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
    The boundary between the two seats is just north of the old Wanstead Hospital site on Hermon Hill.

    The street stalls in Wanstead High Street will be former Labour councillor Greg Eglin and his pals from Snaresbrook Ward, who love doing street stalls there regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. If one of Kim's missiles reaches us, when we emerge from our bunkers there will be a Labour street stall outside the Co-op in Wanstead High Street.
    Lol! That is absolutely right. It's about 300 yards from my flat and they are there come hell or high water.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Pulpstar said:

    Corbynism sweeps 'Warwick and Leamington'

    F*ck me, I'll believe it when I see it.

    Of course it won't happen. But Corbyn was here earlier in the campaign. He drew a crowd, including many of my daughter's friends:

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/861618823316869120?lang=en

    I expect the Tories to increase the size of their majority.



    If the Tories do win Leave voters and Labour Remain voters as much as polls suggest it is not impossible the Tories could win Hartlepool but Labour Warwick and Leamington
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    GIN1138 said:

    How well will Corbyn/McDonnell take their defeat on Friday? Graciously, or will there be defiance, and a call to arms?

    McDonnell has argued for mass protests in the past in response to political decisions he doesn't like.

    If I were the police, I'd be preparing for civil disorder in places like London and Manchester over the weekend.

    They won't take it well.

    Jezza is a man of peace, love and solidarity. What makes you think there will be civil disorder?
    So was Ghandi. A brief consideration of the history of India and Pakistan post partition may be salutary.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    One for the ever insatiable PB Eck fan club.

    twitter.com/AlexSalmond/status/872476330520186881

    #fieldsofgrass more like

    (I await the pedants)
    If May had spoken about running around on grass that really would have been a story.
    That's not a typical response.... :p
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    If TSE can't get this into a header I will be disappointed

    @estwebber: David Firth has just been described to me as the Andrew Ridgeley to John Curtice's George Michael
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
    How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
    The boundary between the two seats is just north of the old Wanstead Hospital site on Hermon Hill.

    The street stalls in Wanstead High Street will be former Labour councillor Greg Eglin and his pals from Snaresbrook Ward, who love doing street stalls there regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. If one of Kim's missiles reaches us, when we emerge from our bunkers there will be a Labour street stall outside the Co-op in Wanstead High Street.
    Lol! That is absolutely right. It's about 300 yards from my flat and they are there come hell or high water.
    The ward I represent is the one immediately north of the boundary, so I speak with some local knowledge....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited June 2017
    Yougov did a seat forecaster in 2015, it was miles off.

    Does everyone remember it ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

    Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
    That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.

    Of course. It's just that I always find it interesting in London how closely the very richest and the very poorest live together. Houses in Hampstead worth millions are literally a few yards from council flats housing care workers and cleaners.

  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    RobD said:

    Just in my office right now. Labour supporter: I just think it's better to spend the money on starving kids, and people in desperate need, than give it to the rich.

    A couple of others: "hmm.." I stayed quiet.

    There is a lot of moral high-ground in-your-face rhetoric out there right now, with social/professional comeback if you disagree.

    There are shy Tories. Lots of them.

    Should have asked why they are spending £10bn on students rather than cancelling the Tory cuts.
    They aren't interested in listening, Rob. But, they do mark you down and judge you as "a Tory", if you challenge it.

    In my professional life, with people I need to work with and have excellent relationships with, every single day, it simply isn't worth it.
    Very sensible. I know some very vocal and aggressive labour supporters who have been surprised in the last few elections as they hadn't come across any Tory voters. I held my tongue and didn't tell them that it was unlikely they would if they berate anyone who is not super left wing as a Tory.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    edited June 2017
    Anecdote alert
    My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values.
    My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Brom said:

    Since we're doing predictions, here's mine:

    Con 372
    Lab 206
    SNP 43
    LD 7
    Plaid 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    UKIP 0
    NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)

    Con maj 76.

    There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.

    If the Tories are gaining 42 seats on 2015 and Labour only losing 26 I don't get where those extra 16 Tory seats will come from?
    The SNP. Though there'll be more churn than that. I think Labour will themselves take a few back off the Nats, and the Lib Dems will nibble there too at the edges. Indeed, I could well see more than half the Lib Dem parliamentary party being newbies.
    Are you including Vince as a newbie?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

    Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
    That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.

    Of course. It's just that I always find it interesting in London how closely the very richest and the very poorest live together. Houses in Hampstead worth millions are literally a few yards from council flats housing care workers and cleaners.

    Lol I thought you were Southam.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    SNIP

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Likewise in Leeds - why have we got GOTV effort in Leeds Central? Anyone wanting to get involved should be heading to Leeds North West or Morley & Outwood.
    York Central is awash with Labour posters for Rachael Maskell.1/10 Labour 5/1 Conservative both Corbyn and May have been here.
    I identified York Central as one of the seats I thought could go Tory at the beginning of the Campaign. I just about think it still could, but the game is rather scuppered by the Green's withdrawal.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    *** BREAKING WIND NEWS *** BREAKING WIND NEWS *** BREAKING WIND NEWS ***

    The breaking news is that WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is reporting to the JNN (Jacobite News Network) the contents of the executive summary of the "JackW Contacts Report" for the 2017 General Election and the updated JWCBI.

    15 reports were requested from various party figures and independent analysts. 12 were returned. of these 4 were Conservatives, 3 Labour, 2 LibDem and 3 non party. Each individual, given complete anonymity, was asked to give an impartial analysis of the campaign and seat figures for each party excluding NI.

    ..................................................................

    There was a remarkable level of consensus that Jeremy Corbyn had "won" the campaign. Ten gave it Jezza, one to May and one adjudged it a draw. An even higher level of consensus indicated that the Prime Minister would increase her majority with all but one assessing the majority at over 50.

    The Prime Minister's campaign was variously described as "lacklustre" "dire" "uninspiring" "pitiful" "abject" "crap" and "the worst in living memory". The kinder comments were "mediocre" and "workmanlike".

    Jeremy Corbyn's campaign was referenced as "surprisingly good" "energetic" "better than expected" "never dull" and full of "passion and rubbish".

    Tim Farron's LibDems attracted pity and scorn in equal measure - "a man and a party in need of a reason to exist " "almost invisible" "piss poor" "such a shame".

    Average of scores for leader and campaign.

    May and Con - 5 and 5
    Corbyn and Labour 6.5 and 5
    Farron and LibDem 4 and 3

    Seats Scores and Con Maj - Low .. High .. Average

    Con 330 - 390 - 370
    Lab 165 - 230 - 203
    SNP - 40 - 50 - 44
    LibDem 6 - 14 - 10
    Others 4 - 6 - 5
    NI 18

    Con Maj 10 - 130 - 90

    All numbers rounded.

    ..................................................

    Updated JackW Conservative Bedwetters Index

    Con Maj 104 - No Chnage
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn

    A tectonic shift indeed. Educated-but-none-too-bright has been the bedrock of the Conservative Party for generations.

    (g,d&r)
    Love it! The guy who forgot to register was of course the dumbest of the three, and that's saying something.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    There are 4 key numbers I will be looking for tomorrow night:

    1) Exit poll showing size of TMay's majority. After which I will relax (hopefully).
    2) Number of SCON seats. >9 and I will be happy and spending winnings.
    3) Total blue votes - and whether it exceeds Major's 1992 total as the highest vote ever.
    4) Seat lead over Labour and whether it is 200 or more.

    On a good night all 4 could come up. Now that would be an accumulator to be on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    SNIP

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Likewise in Leeds - why have we got GOTV effort in Leeds Central? Anyone wanting to get involved should be heading to Leeds North West or Morley & Outwood.
    The 600K members are not the disciplined army that our more Stalinist professional organisers would really like, and in plenty of seats they are running an enthusiastic campaign entirely without Regional Office support. If the overall picture is more favourable than the polling average, that will pay unexpected dividends. Otherwise, it's of course pretty silly. But there isn't really a shortage of volunteers for the key seats.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    There's something rather amusing about Jon Snow getting 30,000 retweets when he says Theresa May won't do an interview. Then Corbyn cancels his interview at the last minute before May decided to accept. Needless to say twitter greets the news with silence and excuses.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2017
    Norm said:

    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Canterbury will not go Labour even if it's the one seat in Kent slightly trending that way. It still had a comfortable Leave majority last year as did all of Kent apart from Royal Tunbridge Wells..
    Being Tunbridge Wells born and raised it is too posh for Corbyn outside High Brooms but the LD vote will likely be up on 2015
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    Anecdote alert: usually politically disinterested friend of mine is travelling across London tomorrow to vote Labour where he is registered. He's 32 so still young-ish. I do feel Labour have motivated people.

    I didn't tell him, btw, that he should have registered where he lives now (in a key marginal) and not remained registered where his parents live (a safe Lab seat).

    My bad...

    My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.

    I am always tremendously impressed by stories of people going to extreme lengths to get their vote in, given the voting paradox that no single vote has ever made a difference in a UK G.E. Conversely I think the courts should come down like a ton of bricks on every instance of voting fraud, by anyone in any circumstances, because it is tantamount to stealing that amount of effort.
    You never know. I was so sure that Mark Oaten didn't have an earthly in Winchester in 1997[1] that I went down to Christchurch to help Diana Maddock, not that it made any difference. Fortunately I did go and vote before heading to the station which made Oaten's majority 2 instead of 1.

    And allegedly there was an election under FPTP in one of the British African territories just prior to independence where the winning party won by one seat, and won one of those seats by one vote!

    [1] Plus I couldn't stand the man.
    Yeah, Oaten was full of shit.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    One for the ever insatiable PB Eck fan club.

    twitter.com/AlexSalmond/status/872476330520186881

    #fieldsofgrass more like

    (I await the pedants)
    That's not grass, it's wheat or barley.
    Wheat and Barley are grasses.


    Yours sincerely,
    A. Pedant.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

    Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
    That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.

    Of course. It's just that I always find it interesting in London how closely the very richest and the very poorest live together. Houses in Hampstead worth millions are literally a few yards from council flats housing care workers and cleaners.

    Did you tell you son he was an idiot ? Do not think I would have liked my dad calling me that at 19.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.

    I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn

    I've read it and he is pretty scathing about Theresa May as well.

    Edit: http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-why-we-believe-this-country-needs-a-strong-conservative-team-as-the-next-a3558971.html
    Given Obso's age and background, his ONLY chance of returning to front line politics is if there is a major shake up and realignment of the existing political parties. Everything he writes has the objective of stirring things up with this in mind.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Mr Handel, God love him! That's steadied my nerves and cheered me up no end! Excellent, Mr Dancer.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Scott_P said:

    One for the ever insatiable PB Eck fan club.

    I thought you were posting this version

    https://twitter.com/generalboles/status/872478487109652480
    Genuine lol!
    Brilliant - and good to see General Boles is in good spirits.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.

    I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn

    Not really. The LES has been true blue for as long as anyone can remember. (It once published an article lambasting Labour that was supposedly penned by former Labour stalwart Bryan Gould, which turned out to have been by Michael Howard's son.) Its Tory proclivities never caused too many problems for Labour in London.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?

    Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
    That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.

    Of course. It's just that I always find it interesting in London how closely the very richest and the very poorest live together. Houses in Hampstead worth millions are literally a few yards from council flats housing care workers and cleaners.

    Explains the clientele in The George?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    currystar said:

    chrisb said:

    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
    The full Yougov dataset is here:

    https://yg-infographics-data.s3.amazonaws.com/uk-elections-2017/figures/party_constituency_vote_shares.csv

    Comparing it to yesterday's version, the changes are as follows, although it's all very MoE stuff:

    Con to Lab:

    Bolton West
    Canterbury
    Kensington
    Walsall North
    Warwick and Leamington
    Vale of Clwyd
    Preseli Pembrokeshire

    Lab to Con:

    Halifax
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
    Peterborough
    Portsmouth South

    LD to Con:

    Eastbourne
    Oxford West and Abingdon
    St Ives

    SNP to Con:

    Perth and North Perthshire
    Kensington Labour ?
    Portsmouth South? With Corbyn? And no students?
    Portsmouth does have a University (used to be Portsmouth Poly) but it's Tory or Lib Dem. Labour will be third. Portsmouth North is a different matter.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    edited June 2017

    For those of you who are in London and the South will George Osborne's Evening Standard trashing of Corbyn and his economics together with his endorsement of TM have any effect.

    I have sctually read his article and he is taking no prisoners in Corbyn

    I've read it and he is pretty scathing about Theresa May as well.

    Edit: http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-why-we-believe-this-country-needs-a-strong-conservative-team-as-the-next-a3558971.html
    It reads like an elect a Tory government but then ditch May piece. Can't argue with a lot of it, on the Tory spectrum my stance is closer to Cameroon One nation stuff than May. I am not even sure what Mayism really is as it seems to be all over the place.

    Rudd has certainly boosted her profile, Ruth if she does make the gains will increase her standing and profile in the party even more.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Pulpstar said:

    Yougov did a seat forecaster in 2015, it was miles off.

    Does everyone remember it ?

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/its-neck-and-neck-and-times/
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
    Anecdote alert:

    On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.

    Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.

    Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
    Maybe they looked around Wanstead High Street and forgot that most of the voters in that seat live in Leyton!
    How far south does the seat go? (Shame on me - I used to live there!) Lots of new flats in Stratford.
    The boundary between the two seats is just north of the old Wanstead Hospital site on Hermon Hill.

    The street stalls in Wanstead High Street will be former Labour councillor Greg Eglin and his pals from Snaresbrook Ward, who love doing street stalls there regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. If one of Kim's missiles reaches us, when we emerge from our bunkers there will be a Labour street stall outside the Co-op in Wanstead High Street.
    Lol! That is absolutely right. It's about 300 yards from my flat and they are there come hell or high water.
    The ward I represent is the one immediately north of the boundary, so I speak with some local knowledge....
    Well if you ever want to drop by for coffee, Ian....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Brom said:

    There's something rather amusing about Jon Snow getting 30,000 retweets when he says Theresa May won't do an interview. Then Corbyn cancels his interview at the last minute before May decided to accept. Needless to say twitter greets the news with silence and excuses.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-34462075/cameron-britain-and-twitter-are-not-the-same-thing

    I miss the old bugger sometimes.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Yougov did a seat forecaster in 2015, it was miles off.

    Does everyone remember it ?

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/its-neck-and-neck-and-times/
    23 LibDem seats - takes you back!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Iain Watson (BBC):

    Labour strategists - off the record - expecting net losses.

    Most effort going into defences.

    But do expect some gains.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: Tonight we reveal YouGov's final poll at 10pm. (This is different to the YouGov model which is on their website and not related to the poll)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Yougov did a seat forecaster in 2015, it was miles off.

    Does everyone remember it ?

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/its-neck-and-neck-and-times/
    Shipley lean Lab
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    PaulM said:

    Anecdote alert
    My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values.
    My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.

    Yes, I think the LibDems could be hoping St Albans is this election's surprise.

    Prior to 2015, going back many years there was always one Liberal/LibDem seat where their vote increased by at least 20% in a GE, which few saw coming. 2010 cf. Redcar. Hopefully St Albans this time....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263



    My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.

    How have you decided to vote in the end yourself - LibDem? Just friendly interest though of course I retain a 1% hope you might relent...

    Got two lifelong Tories swinging to Labour today, both elderly female - not because of any real or supposed virtues that we might have, but because they "want to get rid of that rude woman" (Anna S). Votes sometimes swing on very small things - I once got a vote from someone who always simply voted for the tallest candidate, and lost a vote because I expressed amusement when she asked me to stop her neighbour's budgies from tweeting all the time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Yougov did a seat forecaster in 2015, it was miles off.

    Does everyone remember it ?

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/its-neck-and-neck-and-times/
    Shipley lean Lab
    Yeah... :p
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Charles said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

    I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
    Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.
    Eh? Most parking attendants in London are employed by private companies contracted by local authorities. And few are so blatant as to link pay directly to tickets issued, nowadays, but there are various more cunning ways in which they incentivise 'performance'. I am not even sure that the Police employ any traffic wardens nowadays?
    Yes correct parking attendants are employed by councils and private companies.Thete might be some police traffic wardens in parts of the county but hardly any. The article said traffic wardens they do not exist anymore in most cities but the term is used by the media.
    So your earlier reference to police traffic wardens was a red herring.
    Traffic wardens are if they exist employed the police.I do not know what you are going on about.They had greater powers to direct traffic issue endorsable fixed penalties etc.My pedantic point was the media say traffic wardens when they are parking attendants.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    A programme for your diaries or not as the case may be

    20 Days

    This new drama documentary tells the story of the Conservative Party’s 2016 leadership campaign, from the day David Cameron resigned to the day Theresa May became Prime Minister.

    Based on exhaustive research and first-person testimonies, this dramatised narrative goes beyond the headlines to lay bare the politicking and positioning, betrayals and blunders of this extraordinary political time. The programme also features key interviews with people who were intimately involved in the campaigns of the main contenders.

    This programme is part of a series marking Brexit - One Year On.

    Sunday June 18 BBC Two at 9pm
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084



    My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.

    How have you decided to vote in the end yourself - LibDem? Just friendly interest though of course I retain a 1% hope you might relent...

    Got two lifelong Tories swinging to Labour today, both elderly female - not because of any real or supposed virtues that we might have, but because they "want to get rid of that rude woman" (Anna S). Votes sometimes swing on very small things - I once got a vote from someone who always simply voted for the tallest candidate, and lost a vote because I expressed amusement when she asked me to stop her neighbour's budgies from tweeting all the time.
    Lol your comment reminds me of some of the weird canvasses I have had; the woman who voted for be because I shared her husband's first name, and another because my surname was the same as her cousin's. Things YouGov will never be able to model...

    Nevertheless SO should clearly vote for the LibDems. He yearns for realignment and it isn't going to come about by voting for Corbyn.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,168
    edited June 2017
    The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.

    Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.

    But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    PaulM said:

    Anecdote alert
    My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values.
    My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.

    If fear of Corbyn has traction, it will be severe in places like St. Albans. I imagine the Garden Tax is going down there like a cup of cold sick....

    They might be unhappy, but the alternative is not the LibDems. It is Jeremy Corbyn.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    JackW said:

    *** BREAKING WIND NEWS *** BREAKING WIND NEWS *** BREAKING WIND NEWS ***

    The breaking news is that WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is reporting to the JNN (Jacobite News Network) the contents of the executive summary of the "JackW Contacts Report" for the 2017 General Election and the updated JWCBI.

    15 reports were requested from various party figures and independent analysts. 12 were returned. of these 4 were Conservatives, 3 Labour, 2 LibDem and 3 non party. Each individual, given complete anonymity, was asked to give an impartial analysis of the campaign and seat figures for each party excluding NI.

    ..................................................................

    There was a remarkable level of consensus that Jeremy Corbyn had "won" the campaign. Ten gave it Jezza, one to May and one adjudged it a draw. An even higher level of consensus indicated that the Prime Minister would increase her majority with all but one assessing the majority at over 50.

    The Prime Minister's campaign was variously described as "lacklustre" "dire" "uninspiring" "pitiful" "abject" "crap" and "the worst in living memory". The kinder comments were "mediocre" and "workmanlike".

    Jeremy Corbyn's campaign was referenced as "surprisingly good" "energetic" "better than expected" "never dull" and full of "passion and rubbish".

    Tim Farron's LibDems attracted pity and scorn in equal measure - "a man and a party in need of a reason to exist " "almost invisible" "piss poor" "such a shame".

    Average of scores for leader and campaign.

    May and Con - 5 and 5
    Corbyn and Labour 6.5 and 5
    Farron and LibDem 4 and 3

    Seats Scores and Con Maj - Low .. High .. Average

    Con 330 - 390 - 370
    Lab 165 - 230 - 203
    SNP - 40 - 50 - 44
    LibDem 6 - 14 - 10
    Others 4 - 6 - 5
    NI 18

    Con Maj 10 - 130 - 90

    All numbers rounded.

    ..................................................

    Updated JackW Conservative Bedwetters Index

    Con Maj 104 - No Chnage

    So, not big fans of Yougov and Survation then?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Yorkcity said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Charles said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

    I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
    Just to be pedantic they probably are not traffic wardens they are employed by the police.Private companies and local councils employ parking attendants.Police traffic wardens have greater powers .Just everyone uses the name traffic wardens but in reality they hardly exist anymore.
    Eh? Most parking attendants in London are employed by private companies contracted by local authorities. And few are so blatant as to link pay directly to tickets issued, nowadays, but there are various more cunning ways in which they incentivise 'performance'. I am not even sure that the Police employ any traffic wardens nowadays?
    Yes correct parking attendants are employed by councils and private companies.Thete might be some police traffic wardens in parts of the county but hardly any. The article said traffic wardens they do not exist anymore in most cities but the term is used by the media.
    So your earlier reference to police traffic wardens was a red herring.
    Traffic wardens are if they exist employed the police.I do not know what you are going on about.They had greater powers to direct traffic issue endorsable fixed penalties etc.My pedantic point was the media say traffic wardens when they are parking attendants.
    My point was simply that they don't exist.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    JackW said:

    *** BREAKING WIND NEWS *** BREAKING WIND NEWS *** BREAKING WIND NEWS ***

    The breaking news is that WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is reporting to the JNN (Jacobite News Network) the contents of the executive summary of the "JackW Contacts Report" for the 2017 General Election and the updated JWCBI.

    15 reports were requested from various party figures and independent analysts. 12 were returned. of these 4 were Conservatives, 3 Labour, 2 LibDem and 3 non party. Each individual, given complete anonymity, was asked to give an impartial analysis of the campaign and seat figures for each party excluding NI.

    ..................................................................

    There was a remarkable level of consensus that Jeremy Corbyn had "won" the campaign. Ten gave it Jezza, one to May and one adjudged it a draw. An even higher level of consensus indicated that the Prime Minister would increase her majority with all but one assessing the majority at over 50.

    The Prime Minister's campaign was variously described as "lacklustre" "dire" "uninspiring" "pitiful" "abject" "crap" and "the worst in living memory". The kinder comments were "mediocre" and "workmanlike".

    Jeremy Corbyn's campaign was referenced as "surprisingly good" "energetic" "better than expected" "never dull" and full of "passion and rubbish".

    Tim Farron's LibDems attracted pity and scorn in equal measure - "a man and a party in need of a reason to exist " "almost invisible" "piss poor" "such a shame".

    Average of scores for leader and campaign.

    May and Con - 5 and 5
    Corbyn and Labour 6.5 and 5
    Farron and LibDem 4 and 3

    Seats Scores and Con Maj - Low .. High .. Average

    Con 330 - 390 - 370
    Lab 165 - 230 - 203
    SNP - 40 - 50 - 44
    LibDem 6 - 14 - 10
    Others 4 - 6 - 5
    NI 18

    Con Maj 10 - 130 - 90

    All numbers rounded.

    ..................................................

    Updated JackW Conservative Bedwetters Index

    Con Maj 104 - No Chnage

    I see JackW waited for the stockmarket to close before releasing the latest projections.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    The dramas continue. Blocked from posting yet again but now seemingly back.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    IanB2 said:

    PaulM said:

    Anecdote alert
    My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values.
    My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.

    Yes, I think the LibDems could be hoping St Albans is this election's surprise.

    Prior to 2015, going back many years there was always one Liberal/LibDem seat where their vote increased by at least 20% in a GE, which few saw coming. 2010 cf. Redcar. Hopefully St Albans this time....
    Their candidate this time is a 30something called Daisy Cooper who is apparently quite a high flyer in LibDem circles.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    ARSE majority anywhere between 10-130. Nice :p
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Tonight we reveal YouGov's final poll at 10pm. (This is different to the YouGov model which is on their website and not related to the poll)

    Pardon? – is it their normal VI poll or not?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    JackW said:

    *** BREAKING WIND NEWS *** BREAKING WIND NEWS *** BREAKING WIND NEWS ***

    The breaking news is that WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is reporting to the JNN (Jacobite News Network) the contents of the executive summary of the "JackW Contacts Report" for the 2017 General Election and the updated JWCBI.

    15 reports were requested from various party figures and independent analysts. 12 were returned. of these 4 were Conservatives, 3 Labour, 2 LibDem and 3 non party. Each individual, given complete anonymity, was asked to give an impartial analysis of the campaign and seat figures for each party excluding NI.

    ..................................................................

    There was a remarkable level of consensus that Jeremy Corbyn had "won" the campaign. Ten gave it Jezza, one to May and one adjudged it a draw. An even higher level of consensus indicated that the Prime Minister would increase her majority with all but one assessing the majority at over 50.

    The Prime Minister's campaign was variously described as "lacklustre" "dire" "uninspiring" "pitiful" "abject" "crap" and "the worst in living memory". The kinder comments were "mediocre" and "workmanlike".

    Jeremy Corbyn's campaign was referenced as "surprisingly good" "energetic" "better than expected" "never dull" and full of "passion and rubbish".

    Tim Farron's LibDems attracted pity and scorn in equal measure - "a man and a party in need of a reason to exist " "almost invisible" "piss poor" "such a shame".

    Average of scores for leader and campaign.

    May and Con - 5 and 5
    Corbyn and Labour 6.5 and 5
    Farron and LibDem 4 and 3

    Seats Scores and Con Maj - Low .. High .. Average

    Con 330 - 390 - 370
    Lab 165 - 230 - 203
    SNP - 40 - 50 - 44
    LibDem 6 - 14 - 10
    Others 4 - 6 - 5
    NI 18

    Con Maj 10 - 130 - 90

    All numbers rounded.

    ..................................................

    Updated JackW Conservative Bedwetters Index

    Con Maj 104 - No Chnage

    Thanks Mr Jack!

    Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide :smile:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Tonight we reveal YouGov's final poll at 10pm. (This is different to the YouGov model which is on their website and not related to the poll)

    Pardon? – is it their normal VI poll or not?
    I believe it is. I think the tweet is saying that the model is not related to the poll.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited June 2017

    The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.

    Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.

    But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?

    Her performance in the last election was truly remarkable.

    Nevertheless the YouGov projection arises because a significantly large number of their (self-selected) panel members in East Devon say they'll be voting for her this time. So large a proportion that it has over-ridden the other feature of YouGov's model based on the voting intentions of similar people in adjacent seats.

    We have to decide whether the high level of support she has received from the c. 75 East Devon panel members represents a) a statistical fluke, or b) an electoral earthquake in the making.

    I put £2 on at 8/1 just for the interest of it. But I wouldn't risk my life savings.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    SObserver said below, of Hampstead, 'the very richest and the very poorest live together'. I'm not sure that this is entirely true in that the poor of Hampstead aren't perhaps that poor compared with others nationally, but let it stand. Thoughout this and other campaigns there's been a clamour to narrow the gap between the best and the worst - Nicola Sturgeon wants to do that in Scottish schools, Corbyn will insist upon it for company payscales. Does anyone else think that all policies which seek to narrow the difference are bad policies?

    I want our politicians to raise the situation of the poorest, boost the education of the hardest to educate, eradicate the cracks that people fall through - that sort of thing. If they can do that then I don't care in the slightest what the differential is - I want there to be fantastically rich people in this country, and I particularly want there to be fantastically clever and educated people here. If someone can afford to keep herself alive for 1000 years, then bully for her.

    I'm not sure that the left historically played the politics of envy. I think that they're straying that way now though. It's quite astonishing that all parties seem to wish to join them.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    So the value in this election is about identifying possible Labour gains in the face of net losses.

    I have Leeds NW @ 10-1

    Any other value out there?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    ARSE majority anywhere between 10-130. Nice :p

    Naughty .... :smile:
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2017
    We know why LOLGOV are predicting Kensington and Canterbury as Lean Labour.

    5/ The upshot is that the highly engaged people in low turnout demographics are massively overrepresented.

    The more wealthier you are the more engaged you are. The more engaged you are, the more likely you are to do polls, therefore skewing the results from your peer group.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    With Dementia tax, Bedroom tax and Garden tax, perhaps we should rename Income tax as the Workers tax?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    ARSE majority anywhere between 10-130. Nice :p

    Naughty .... :smile:
    I was going to ask to take a look at the shape of your posterior.. but maybe that's a bit too cheeky.... :smiley:
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks Mr Jack!

    Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide :smile:

    Precisely.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Con Maj tightening more - just gone 1.2

    £80k wanting to back at 1.21.

    Response to JackW?!
  • PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    PaulM said:

    Anecdote alert
    My mother's Tory leaning friends in St Albans are still very annoyed with Anne Main for supporting Brexit (and they never liked her before due to the expenses scandal) and are minded to vote Lib Dem. The dementia tax hasn't helped the Tories either given local property values.
    My mother felt the same way, but the Sunday Times saying Corbyn was within 4% gave her the fear so she has reluctantly postal voted for Main. If Farron's message has traction anywhere it could be seats like St Albans - interesting he was there again today.

    Yes, I think the LibDems could be hoping St Albans is this election's surprise.

    Prior to 2015, going back many years there was always one Liberal/LibDem seat where their vote increased by at least 20% in a GE, which few saw coming. 2010 cf. Redcar. Hopefully St Albans this time....
    Their candidate this time is a 30something called Daisy Cooper who is apparently quite a high flyer in LibDem circles.
    She's a good candidate for sure. But "St Albans could be the big surprise..." is something one hears in Lib Dem circles at every single election bar none.

    I'm thinking of having it put on t-shirts and would suggest the conference Glee Club may want to pen a song around the theme for this year.
  • JackW said:

    *** BREAKING WIND NEWS *** BREAKING WIND NEWS *** BREAKING WIND NEWS ***

    The breaking news is that WIND (Whimsical Independent News Division) is reporting to the JNN (Jacobite News Network) the contents of the executive summary of the "JackW Contacts Report" for the 2017 General Election and the updated JWCBI.

    15 reports were requested from various party figures and independent analysts. 12 were returned. of these 4 were Conservatives, 3 Labour, 2 LibDem and 3 non party. Each individual, given complete anonymity, was asked to give an impartial analysis of the campaign and seat figures for each party excluding NI.

    ..................................................................

    There was a remarkable level of consensus that Jeremy Corbyn had "won" the campaign. Ten gave it Jezza, one to May and one adjudged it a draw. An even higher level of consensus indicated that the Prime Minister would increase her majority with all but one assessing the majority at over 50.

    The Prime Minister's campaign was variously described as "lacklustre" "dire" "uninspiring" "pitiful" "abject" "crap" and "the worst in living memory". The kinder comments were "mediocre" and "workmanlike".

    Jeremy Corbyn's campaign was referenced as "surprisingly good" "energetic" "better than expected" "never dull" and full of "passion and rubbish".

    Tim Farron's LibDems attracted pity and scorn in equal measure - "a man and a party in need of a reason to exist " "almost invisible" "piss poor" "such a shame".

    Average of scores for leader and campaign.

    May and Con - 5 and 5
    Corbyn and Labour 6.5 and 5
    Farron and LibDem 4 and 3

    Seats Scores and Con Maj - Low .. High .. Average

    Con 330 - 390 - 370
    Lab 165 - 230 - 203
    SNP - 40 - 50 - 44
    LibDem 6 - 14 - 10
    Others 4 - 6 - 5
    NI 18

    Con Maj 10 - 130 - 90

    All numbers rounded.

    ..................................................

    Updated JackW Conservative Bedwetters Index

    Con Maj 104 - No Chnage

    Thanks for undertaking this survey Jack .... very interesting. Iirc you sometimes include your forecast of the turnout - are you able to oblige on this occasion please?
  • BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    Scott_P said:

    If TSE can't get this into a header I will be disappointed

    @estwebber: David Firth has just been described to me as the Andrew Ridgeley to John Curtice's George Michael

    John Curtice is a psephologist,
    A psephologist, a psephologist
    John Curtice is a psephologist,
    And so is David Firth.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    IanB2 said:



    My son is coming back from Nottingham to vote for Corbyn. He is an idiot, bless him. Down here it probably won't matter. Up there it would have done. That said, if the 18-24 vote is going to go up it will be seats like Warwick & Leamington where it is felt. A lot of students live here and term is still happening, I believe.

    How have you decided to vote in the end yourself - LibDem? Just friendly interest though of course I retain a 1% hope you might relent...

    Got two lifelong Tories swinging to Labour today, both elderly female - not because of any real or supposed virtues that we might have, but because they "want to get rid of that rude woman" (Anna S). Votes sometimes swing on very small things - I once got a vote from someone who always simply voted for the tallest candidate, and lost a vote because I expressed amusement when she asked me to stop her neighbour's budgies from tweeting all the time.
    Lol your comment reminds me of some of the weird canvasses I have had; the woman who voted for be because I shared her husband's first name, and another because my surname was the same as her cousin's. Things YouGov will never be able to model...

    Nevertheless SO should clearly vote for the LibDems. He yearns for realignment and it isn't going to come about by voting for Corbyn.
    People make odd voting decisions. Way back in the day, a mate's lifelong Tory grandmother switched her vote to Labour simply because the Labour MP in the neighbouring seat replied to his letter when he was researching a school project, and the local Tory MP didn't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Tonight we reveal YouGov's final poll at 10pm. (This is different to the YouGov model which is on their website and not related to the poll)

    Pardon? – is it their normal VI poll or not?
    I believe it is. I think the tweet is saying that the model is not related to the poll.
    YouGov are riding two horses. They have their model based on all the data they have about their regular 50,000 panellists. Then they are trying to run 'regular' online VI polls based on selecting people from their panel who they think are representative.

    So far, the two outcomes in terms of national VI have been very close. Let's see how far from Tory 42% / Lab 38% that this evening's VI poll turns out to be?

    It remains my view that YouGov's weakness is that its self-selected panel isn't fully representative and that, whatever it may say, it over-weights younger voters.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    So the value in this election is about identifying possible Labour gains in the face of net losses.

    I have Leeds NW @ 10-1

    Any other value out there?

    Bet365 have 10/1 on Lab in Broxtowe. I think this is value as Soubry will not attract the kippers.
This discussion has been closed.