I hope to fuck we have the sense to sit this one out. The Saudis are not our friends and absolutely nothing good will come of us supporting them.
Have any British government officials sent condolences to the Iranians about these terrorist attacks?
A quick look at the FCO website suggests not. Although I see that Boris did congratulate Rouhani on his "election" victory last month. Does kinda suggest a lack of focus.
SNP 47 Lose 9: Edinburgh West, Dunbartonshire East, East Lothian, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, Clydesdale and Tweedsdale, Berwickshire R & S, Dumfries and Galloway, Moray
Labour 199 Gain 3: East Lothian, Paisley and Renfrewshire South, Leeds NW Lose 36: Barrow and Furness, Batley & Spen, Birmingham Edgbaston, Erdington and Northfield, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Bolton NE, City of Chester, Chorley, Copeland, Coventry NW, Coventry South, Darlington, Derbyshire NE, Dewsbury, Dudley North, Gedling, Halifax, Hyndburn, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Mansfield, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Scunthorpe, Stalybridge and Hyde, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stoke-on-Trent South, Wakefield, Walsall North, Wirral West, Wolverhampton SW Wolverhampton NE, Workington, Worsley and Eccles South, Wrexham
NI (18), PC (3) and Green (1) = 22
Leaves Conservative 371 (372 inc speaker) Gains and Losses should be all those not explicitly paired off above. Majority 94.
Paisley and RS is 14/1 for SLAB.
The end of Mhari Black in Parliament? I think may well be worth a modest punt.
My forecast is similar, but not too far away.
yes I've backed that. I fancy labour to get 3 in scotland and I plumped for that as the third one.
The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
She held her CC seat with 75% of the vote .
Kind of independent we could do with here in East Herts, with all 53 Councillors being Tory. Not good surely
I will be voting blue tomorrow though, no doubt whatsoever. I suspect a lot of her county council supporters will be doing the same (although obviously not all)
The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
She held her CC seat with 75% of the vote .
How much did she hold it by in the previous election?
74%!
I'd not read too much into a councillor who's popular in her ward. That says "strong candidate" but doesn't imply replication across the constituency for a national election.
As a side note, the same constituency had a Monster Raving Loony councillor at one time (he later defected to the Tories - true story!)
The point is just that she proved she was serious coming a good second in 2015, and has two more years to build against a Tory MP who has a classic safe seat mentality.
In better days for the Lib Dems, it was the sort of seat where it would be an energetic Lib Dem surging past a non-battle-hardened Tory stalwart in an otherwise unpromising election (Solihull, Westmoreland, North Norfolk etc). That's why I get the feeling in my waters on East Devon.
I hope to fuck we have the sense to sit this one out. The Saudis are not our friends and absolutely nothing good will come of us supporting them.
Have any British government officials sent condolences to the Iranians about these terrorist attacks?
A quick look at the FCO website suggests not. Although I see that Boris did congratulate Rouhani on his "election" victory last month. Does kinda suggest a lack of focus.
That strikes me as good for both sides if it was the result. especially as Corbyn can say 'I got more votes' The fact that most of them are likely to be in very safe seats
Another of Sporting's "Election Specials" is their so-called "First Past The Post" market in which one is betting on the number of minutes after 10.00pm tomorrow evening before the first declaration is made. The current spread is 49 - 51 minutes. I was quite tempted to BUY this bet at 51 minutes until I checked back on the 2015 GE when Houghton & Sunderland South took the honour declaring at 10:48 p.m. which is quite remarkable. I can only assume that they commence counting the votes before the ballot boxes have actually closed at 10:00p.m. Judging by the spread, Sporting clearly believe that an even faster time is at least possible on this occasion. Turnout will clearly have a bearing.
I think that ICM poll will be almost bang on, Labour gets its biggest voteshare since 2005 and matches Kinnock 1992 but the Tories get their biggest voteshare since Heath 1970 and probably their biggest majority since Thatcher 1987
Another of Sporting's "Election Specials" is their so-called "First Past The Post" market in which one is betting on the number of minutes after 10.00pm tomorrow evening before the first declaration is made. The current spread is 49 - 51 minutes. I was quite tempted to BUY this bet at 51 minutes until I checked back on the 2015 GE when Houghton & Sunderland South took the honour declaring at 10:48 p.m. which is quite remarkable. I can only assume that they commence counting the votes before the ballot boxes have actually closed at 10:00p.m. Judging by the spread, Sporting clearly believe that an even faster time is at least possible on this occasion. Turnout will clearly have a bearing.
it should be quicker this time as there are no locals
If (as I believe) the Conservatives' lead will be about 8%, that will be three elections in a row in which the margin between Con and Lab has been very similar.
Mr. Tyndall, whether we sit it out (Syria), take part without committing ground forces (Libya), or have a full-blown role (Iraq/Afghanistan) it'll be criticised.
Anyway, we'll have to wait and see what Iran actually does.
As I recall, the Eastern Province of KSA is where the oil is, and has a substantial (and oppressed) Shia population.
So ICM sticking with pretty much what they have found for some time. YouGov later? I'm guessing will be the same, not much change. Going to be fascinating to see who is accurate or closest to being accurate.
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 6h6 hours ago A Ladbrokes customer in London has had £1,000 on the Greens to win most seats at 1000/1. Will win £1m in the unlikely event they are right.
Warren @fatwaz 4h4 hours ago But their Max payout on politics is 250k
Ladbrokes PoliticsVerified account @LadPolitics 4h4 hours ago Replying to @fatwaz@WeLoveBettingUK This is a fair point, the max payouts on display are often lower than we would actually pay out, as in this case.
That's basically fraud on the part of the bookmakers.
If that comes off I think Shadsy will be good for the milllion. Not least because pretty much every other bet will have gone down
What was the old Family Fortunes catchphrase, "If it's up there, I'll give you the money myself".
Labour strategists - off the record - expecting net losses.
Most effort going into defences.
But do expect some gains.
Even more convinced after reading Stephen Bush's latest blog post for the New Statesman this evening that I'm right about the potential for large differences in swing between seats at this election. Based on what he's heard, he reckons that the trend of 2015 will continue - i.e. Labour will increase its vote share but lose more seats, because its vote is getting more and more inefficiently distributed; this chimes both with my own thinking and with other reports of canvass and focus group returns that I have read during the campaign.
In short, Labour is stacking up more extra voters in urban areas and university towns, whilst going steadily backwards in the rest of the country - the one caveat to this being that I expect Labour to consolidate many improved, yet (under FPTP) totally useless, second place performances in safe Tory seats all over rural England. This might help in a small handful of targets - Bush mentions Battersea, and I reckon Brighton Kemptown looks rather vulnerable - but, for the most part, Labour's additional votes are likely to materialise disproportionately in seats where it is already extremely safe, or where it has zero chance of winning.
On the other hand, I still see no particular reason why the Tories can't roll over dozens of traditional Labour seats in the Midlands and North, through a combination of hoovering up half or more of the Ukip vote, and a significant number of direct Lab to Con defections (caused by much of the old Labour core support's ongoing distaste for Jeremy Corbyn.)
I stand to be proven spectacularly wrong in just over 24 hours' time, but right now I think that the Conservative landslide is achievable.
So ICM sticking with pretty much what they have found for some time. YouGov later? I'm guessing will be the same, not much change. Going to be fascinating to see who is accurate or closest to being accurate.
Fascinating yes, but also potentially hugely embarrassing for the loser, unless the actual result is somewhere around the mid-point of their respective forecasts.
Prediction - ahead of final polls - Con 356, Lab 220, SNP 45, Lib Dem 7, PC 2, Green 1, Speaker 1 NI 18
I think 62 majority. I think it could be well above this if the Tories could have broken through the reluctance across the north to vote Tory - Thatchers legacy.
Labour's electoral nightmare. Consider the following scenario:
Con 40, Lab 40, LD 8, UKIP 3, GRN 1. [ without ticking the Scottish box ]
Con 322 Lab 250 LD 4 UKIP 0 GRN 0 SNP 55 PC 1 NI 18
Con short of majority by 4. Of course, Scotland will probably give more than 2 gains.
So even with 40:40 split, Con gets overall majority with UNS.
I played with the numbers to see if I could get a Lab majority, but nothing plausible would do it.
A high young (<40) turnout, and kippers breaking less decisively to Con in the Midlands and North, while a little tactical voting goes on does make a well hung parliament possible.
Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide
Precisely.
And the point of the past six weeks was... ?
To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.
As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you whatever. On the other hand, I hope at least some of those on the left can recognise that the identity of the preacher is often as - or even more - important than the message itself. If you have the baggage that people like Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott have accumulated over the years, you are going to put off more voters than you attract. I'd say that Labour owes Corbyn a big thank-you for helping the parry to find its mojo once more, but I'd also say that if the Labour left actually wants to win power it needs to accept there needs to be compromise on who is in charge: combine Dan Jarvis on security with Jeremy Corbyn on economics and you probably have a genuine winner on your hands!! On that basis, I'd saythat if everyone is reasonable (a big if, of course) there is a way forward for Labour that did not seem to the there six weeks ago. I see absolutely no need for Corbyn to go now, if he genuinely embraces all parts of the party. It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!
Labour strategists - off the record - expecting net losses.
Most effort going into defences.
But do expect some gains.
Even more convinced after reading Stephen Bush's latest blog post for the New Statesman this evening that I'm right about the potential for large differences in swing between seats at this election. Based on what he's heard, he reckons that the trend of 2015 will continue - i.e. Labour will increase its vote share but lose more seats, because its vote is getting more and more inefficiently distributed; this chimes both with my own thinking and with other reports of canvass and focus group returns that I have read during the campaign.
In short, Labour is stacking up more extra voters in urban areas and university towns, whilst going steadily backwards in the rest of the country - the one caveat to this being that I expect Labour to consolidate many improved, yet (under FPTP) totally useless, second place performances in safe Tory seats all over rural England. This might help in a small handful of targets - Bush mentions Battersea, and I reckon Brighton Kemptown looks rather vulnerable - but, for the most part, Labour's additional votes are likely to materialise disproportionately in seats where it is already extremely safe, or where it has zero chance of winning.
On the other hand, I still see no particular reason why the Tories can't roll over dozens of traditional Labour seats in the Midlands and North, through a combination of hoovering up half or more of the Ukip vote, and a significant number of direct Lab to Con defections (caused by much of the old Labour core support's ongoing distaste for Jeremy Corbyn.)
I stand to be proven spectacularly wrong in just over 24 hours' time, but right now I think that the Conservative landslide is achievable.
Labour's Idiocy:
1. Not keeping its promise to change the voting system, when it had the chance. 2. Not coming out in support of a fairer system, even now.
Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.
Majority < 50 or NOC.
WillS
A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
Anecdote alert:
On train to (marginal) Hampstead, three educated but none too bright young men were sitting opposite, discussing the election. All three were strongly supporting Corbyn, but one had been unable to register because they asked for his NI number and he 'didn't have it'.
Labour were canvassing at Hampstead Heath Station but when I spoke to them about their prospects in the constituency they would only say 'it's tight', which is hardly news. They didn't sound very confident. Strangely, I have seen no evidence of the Conservatives in the area at all. The Station is in South End Green, which ought to be reasonably good territory for them but not so much as a sticker in sight. Not many Labour ones either, to be fair, but a few. I told the canvasser Tulip was 1/2 to hold the seat. This seemed to cheer them up.
Back in Wanstead, Labour had their well-manned stall in the High Street. What are they doing there? John Cryer is massive odds on to hold. Surely they should be in marginal Ilford?
Interesting - South End Green is very like a lot of other parts of North London in that what you see immediately are the big houses on the streets close to the station and the shops. But behind the old bus terminus just down the way there's a lot of housing association and council flats, while there's a council estate just a few minutes further on off Fleet Road. This is what makes places like Hampstead competitive for labour and places like Saint Pancras North and the Islington constituencies so safe.
That's perfectly correct, Southam, but don't forget the constituency is Hampstead and Kilburn. I should think Kilburn is the Labour end.
Kilburn is very much the 'Labour end'. Confusingly, there are 2 wards in the constituency called Kilburn, one on the Brent side of Kilburn High Street and one on the Camden side. Both deliver huge Labour majorities in what otherwise is a well-balanced constituency. The three wards to the East of the Finchley Road are strongly Tory, the rest are evens. Constituency was 72% remain.
Labour's electoral nightmare. Consider the following scenario:
Con 40, Lab 40, LD 8, UKIP 3, GRN 1. [ without ticking the Scottish box ]
Con 322 Lab 250 LD 4 UKIP 0 GRN 0 SNP 55 PC 1 NI 18
Con short of majority by 4. Of course, Scotland will probably give more than 2 gains.
So even with 40:40 split, Con gets overall majority with UNS.
Hmmm. It's almost like Labour need someone who can appeal to moderate Conservatives rather than using a core vote/energise the base/far left strategy. If only this had been foreseen.
Another of Sporting's "Election Specials" is their so-called "First Past The Post" market in which one is betting on the number of minutes after 10.00pm tomorrow evening before the first declaration is made. The current spread is 49 - 51 minutes. I was quite tempted to BUY this bet at 51 minutes until I checked back on the 2015 GE when Houghton & Sunderland South took the honour declaring at 10:48 p.m. which is quite remarkable. I can only assume that they commence counting the votes before the ballot boxes have actually closed at 10:00p.m. Judging by the spread, Sporting clearly believe that an even faster time is at least possible on this occasion. Turnout will clearly have a bearing.
it should be quicker this time as there are no locals
The BBC usually shows them in a chaingang throwing the ballot boxes into the counting area through a back door. They certainly won't start counting anything before 10pm. I miss the race there used to be with Torbay.....
Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide
Precisely.
And the point of the past six weeks was... ?
To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.
As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you whatever. On the other hand, I hope at least some of those on the left can recognise that the identity of the preacher is often as - or even more - important than the message itself. If you have the baggage that people like Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott have accumulated over the years, you are going to put off more voters than you attract. I'd say that Labour owes Corbyn a big thank-you for helping the parry to find its mojo once more, but I'd also say that if the Labour left actually wants to win power it needs to accept there needs to be compromise on who is in charge: combine Dan Jarvis on security with Jeremy Corbyn on economics and you probably have a genuine winner on your hands!! On that basis, I'd saythat if everyone is reasonable (a big if, of course) there is a way forward for Labour that did not seem to the there six weeks ago. I see absolutely no need for Corbyn to go now, if he genuinely embraces all parts of the party. It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!
Paraphrasing, the mojo for Labour used to be that a leader with left-wing views had to pretend to be more moderate. But the new mojo is for a moderate leader to pretend to be more left-wing?
Labour's electoral nightmare. Consider the following scenario:
Con 40, Lab 40, LD 8, UKIP 3, GRN 1. [ without ticking the Scottish box ]
Con 322 Lab 250 LD 4 UKIP 0 GRN 0 SNP 55 PC 1 NI 18
Con short of majority by 4. Of course, Scotland will probably give more than 2 gains.
So even with 40:40 split, Con gets overall majority with UNS.
I played with the numbers to see if I could get a Lab majority, but nothing plausible would do it.
A high young (<40) turnout, and kippers breaking less decisively to Con in the Midlands and North, while a little tactical voting goes on does make a well hung parliament possible.
Not entirely implausible. </p>
As OGH said in posts prior to 2010 there has been very few elections where power has transitioned between parties when both before and after the election there were proper majorities. not likely to happen this time either no matter how bad it gets for the tories
I think that ICM poll will be almost bang on, Labour gets its biggest voteshare since 2005 and matches Kinnock 1992 but the Tories get their biggest voteshare since Heath 1970 and probably their biggest majority since Thatcher 1987
Should the Tories actually finish as much as 12% ahead then it'll be a very bad night for Labour. There's no way that doesn't result in a landslide; even if you plug those numbers into Electoral Calculus and don't bother to correct for Scotland you still get a Con maj of 96, and (for reasons I just posted) I'm convinced that UNS will be a very poor guide to this election. Labour could do very well in some concentrated geographical areas - mainly the major cities - whilst suffering serious reverses in most of the key marginals.
Another of Sporting's "Election Specials" is their so-called "First Past The Post" market in which one is betting on the number of minutes after 10.00pm tomorrow evening before the first declaration is made. The current spread is 49 - 51 minutes. I was quite tempted to BUY this bet at 51 minutes until I checked back on the 2015 GE when Houghton & Sunderland South took the honour declaring at 10:48 p.m. which is quite remarkable. I can only assume that they commence counting the votes before the ballot boxes have actually closed at 10:00p.m. Judging by the spread, Sporting clearly believe that an even faster time is at least possible on this occasion. Turnout will clearly have a bearing.
it should be quicker this time as there are no locals
The BBC usually shows them in a chaingang throwing the ballot boxes into the counting area through a back door. They certainly won't start counting anything before 10pm. I miss the race there used to be with Torbay.....
but without the locals they won't have to sort out the different ballot papers prior to sorting by candidate and counting.
Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide
Precisely.
And the point of the past six weeks was... ?
To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.
As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you whatever. On the other hand, I hope at least some of those on the left can recognise that the identity of the preacher is often as - or even more - important than the message itself. If you have the baggage that people like Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott have accumulated over the years, you are going to put off more voters than you attract. I'd say that Labour owes Corbyn a big thank-you for helping the parry to find its mojo once more, but I'd also say that if the Labour left actually wants to win power it needs to accept there needs to be compromise on who is in charge: combine Dan Jarvis on security with Jeremy Corbyn on economics and you probably have a genuine winner on your hands!! On that basis, I'd saythat if everyone is reasonable (a big if, of course) there is a way forward for Labour that did not seem to the there six weeks ago. I see absolutely no need for Corbyn to go now, if he genuinely embraces all parts of the party. It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!
I think that a centre left party whose patriotism is not in doubt would start favorite for 2022.
The one I find most striking on the YouGov model is East Devon where the Independent, Claire Wright, is claimed to be in front, not just by a whisker but by a fair old margin.
Now the likelihood is that it's an oddity of the model. Perhaps they find it easier to correct where parties stand across the country. Also, those engaged enough to be on YouGov's panel are more likely to be aware of Wright being a serious candidate than those who aren't and who will just vote for their usual party (i.e. Tory in East Devon by and large). I'd also note that the model is odd full stop - there are several places which just look wrong.
But it's really striking. Wright is a formidable figure, while Hugo Swire has a classic, semi-detatched, safe seat mentality... he's no street fighter. I just wonder if there is something big enough going on under the national radar down on the Jurassic Coast that makes a small flutter at 5-1 worth a pop?
She held her CC seat with 75% of the vote .
How much did she hold it by in the previous election?
74%!
I'd not read too much into a councillor who's popular in her ward. That says "strong candidate" but doesn't imply replication across the constituency for a national election.
As a side note, the same constituency had a Monster Raving Loony councillor at one time (he later defected to the Tories - true story!)
The point is just that she proved she was serious coming a good second in 2015, and has two more years to build against a Tory MP who has a classic safe seat mentality.
In better days for the Lib Dems, it was the sort of seat where it would be an energetic Lib Dem surging past a non-battle-hardened Tory stalwart in an otherwise unpromising election (Solihull, Westmoreland, North Norfolk etc). That's why I get the feeling in my waters on East Devon.
The MRLP candidate is still the Conservative county councilor for Sidmouth. He reminds me rather of the man from Del Monte for those of a certain vintage.
I am sticking with my forecast of Con seats 355, maj 60. With full confidence in all the analysis and PB consensus, just as I had for Remain and for Mrs Clinton. This must truly be third time lucky.... (or unlucky, as far as our country is concerned).
I am sticking with my forecast of Con seats 355, maj 60. With full confidence in all the analysis and PB consensus, just as I had for Remain and for Mrs Clinton. This must truly be third time lucky.... (or unlucky, as far as our country is concerned).
The PB consensus in 2015 was for a hung parliament. We are not the sages that some pretend. We are gamblers, and often ones with party blinkers on.
Another of Sporting's "Election Specials" is their so-called "First Past The Post" market in which one is betting on the number of minutes after 10.00pm tomorrow evening before the first declaration is made. The current spread is 49 - 51 minutes. I was quite tempted to BUY this bet at 51 minutes until I checked back on the 2015 GE when Houghton & Sunderland South took the honour declaring at 10:48 p.m. which is quite remarkable. I can only assume that they commence counting the votes before the ballot boxes have actually closed at 10:00p.m. Judging by the spread, Sporting clearly believe that an even faster time is at least possible on this occasion. Turnout will clearly have a bearing.
it should be quicker this time as there are no locals
The BBC usually shows them in a chaingang throwing the ballot boxes into the counting area through a back door. They certainly won't start counting anything before 10pm. I miss the race there used to be with Torbay.....
but without the locals they won't have to sort out the different ballot papers prior to sorting by candidate and counting.
Yes, I think a lot of the results will come earlier than predicted for that very reason. Except the recounts of course.
LDs gain more in England than in Scotland? I struggle with that, but you may well acquire a reputation from this.
yeah I think maybe I went a bit arse about face trying to get to the 10 seats I reckon they'll get. swapping Bath for a tartan one would probably make more sense.
Labour's electoral nightmare. Consider the following scenario:
Con 40, Lab 40, LD 8, UKIP 3, GRN 1. [ without ticking the Scottish box ]
Con 322 Lab 250 LD 4 UKIP 0 GRN 0 SNP 55 PC 1 NI 18
Con short of majority by 4. Of course, Scotland will probably give more than 2 gains.
So even with 40:40 split, Con gets overall majority with UNS.
I played with the numbers to see if I could get a Lab majority, but nothing plausible would do it.
A high young (<40) turnout, and kippers breaking less decisively to Con in the Midlands and North, while a little tactical voting goes on does make a well hung parliament possible.
Not entirely implausible. </p>
That's why I have an insurance bet on a Labour minority government. While a Conservative win looks overwhelmingly likely, there remains a small voice in my head saying 'yes, but...'.
LDs gain more in England than in Scotland? I struggle with that, but you may well acquire a reputation from this.
yeah I think maybe I went a bit arse about face trying to get to the 10 seats I reckon they'll get. swapping Bath for a tartan one would probably make more sense.
Anecdotal reports from SW London for the LibDems are quite positive.
Mr. 0999, I'd prefer the most votes bet, personally, although the blue vote is apparently more efficient nowadays (certainly wasn't in 2005 and earlier).
Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide
Precisely.
And the point of the past six weeks was... ?
To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.
As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you whatever. On the other hand, I hope at least some of those on the left can recognise that the identity of the preacher is often as - or even more - important than the message itself. If you have the baggage that people like Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott have accumulated over the years, you are going to put off more voters than you attract. I'd say that Labour owes Corbyn a big thank-you for helping the parry to find its mojo once more, but I'd also say that if the Labour left actually wants to win power it needs to accept there needs to be compromise on who is in charge: combine Dan Jarvis on security with Jeremy Corbyn on economics and you probably have a genuine winner on your hands!! On that basis, I'd saythat if everyone is reasonable (a big if, of course) there is a way forward for Labour that did not seem to the there six weeks ago. I see absolutely no need for Corbyn to go now, if he genuinely embraces all parts of the party. It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!
I think that a centre left party whose patriotism is not in doubt would start favorite for 2022.
1. Not keeping its promise to change the voting system, when it had the chance. 2. Not coming out in support of a fairer system, even now.
Labour won't back PR because, providing that the party doesn't definitively rupture through an outbreak of civil war after a Tory landslide, it knows that it will endure as the principal Opposition, and therefore it is also confident that it will eventually wield power again on its own. The worst that it might have to do is rely on the SNP to provide confidence and supply at some point along the way.
Even if the Tories govern very well, eventually people will tire of them. Arguably, Labour just has to rebuild quietly and wait for this to happen so that it can benefit from the swing back, and take the levers of Government for itself. And certainly, if we are returning to a two-party system in most of the country, one can understand why it would take this attitude: historical precedent suggests that, with the smaller players out of the way, relatively modest shifts in public opinion can first demolish large Government majorities, and then put Oppositions into power.
Comments
https://www.gov.uk/government/world/iran
Have you been canvassing this time Sean?
Oh and thanks for the spreadsheet Andy
I will be voting blue tomorrow though, no doubt whatsoever. I suspect a lot of her county council supporters will be doing the same (although obviously not all)
I'd not read too much into a councillor who's popular in her ward. That says "strong candidate" but doesn't imply replication across the constituency for a national election.
As a side note, the same constituency had a Monster Raving Loony councillor at one time (he later defected to the Tories - true story!)
The point is just that she proved she was serious coming a good second in 2015, and has two more years to build against a Tory MP who has a classic safe seat mentality.
In better days for the Lib Dems, it was the sort of seat where it would be an energetic Lib Dem surging past a non-battle-hardened Tory stalwart in an otherwise unpromising election (Solihull, Westmoreland, North Norfolk etc). That's why I get the feeling in my waters on East Devon.
Are we so much in thrall to the Saudi arms billions ?
Judging by the spread, Sporting clearly believe that an even faster time is at least possible on this occasion. Turnout will clearly have a bearing.
Con 40, Lab 40, LD 8, UKIP 3, GRN 1. [ without ticking the Scottish box ]
Con 322
Lab 250
LD 4
UKIP 0
GRN 0
SNP 55
PC 1
NI 18
Con short of majority by 4. Of course, Scotland will probably give more than 2 gains.
So even with 40:40 split, Con gets overall majority with UNS.
In short, Labour is stacking up more extra voters in urban areas and university towns, whilst going steadily backwards in the rest of the country - the one caveat to this being that I expect Labour to consolidate many improved, yet (under FPTP) totally useless, second place performances in safe Tory seats all over rural England. This might help in a small handful of targets - Bush mentions Battersea, and I reckon Brighton Kemptown looks rather vulnerable - but, for the most part, Labour's additional votes are likely to materialise disproportionately in seats where it is already extremely safe, or where it has zero chance of winning.
On the other hand, I still see no particular reason why the Tories can't roll over dozens of traditional Labour seats in the Midlands and North, through a combination of hoovering up half or more of the Ukip vote, and a significant number of direct Lab to Con defections (caused by much of the old Labour core support's ongoing distaste for Jeremy Corbyn.)
I stand to be proven spectacularly wrong in just over 24 hours' time, but right now I think that the Conservative landslide is achievable.
I see that the QE puts out for sea trials this month.
I think 62 majority. I think it could be well above this if the Tories could have broken through the reluctance across the north to vote Tory - Thatchers legacy.
Cons will poll well, but Kelvin Hopkins is popular locally, has impeccable eurosceptic credentials and will hold comfortably.
A high young (<40) turnout, and kippers breaking less decisively to Con in the Midlands and North, while a little tactical voting goes on does make a well hung parliament possible.
Not entirely implausible.
1. Not keeping its promise to change the voting system, when it had the chance.
2. Not coming out in support of a fairer system, even now.
https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/
Regardless, may you be touched by His Noodley Appendage.
On arms deals - Crete once got in trouble with Rome, because they'd been hiring out mercenary archers to Rome, and Rome's enemy, in the same war.
Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?
Con 340
Lab 230
SNP 45
LD 12
Plaid 3
Green 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
How to.deal with rise of machine learning, an aging population etc etc etc
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/872500552042721281
Mr. B2, PR is the work of Satan.
Welcome to the site, Mr. Cat.
Tories over 400
Labour under 160
Lib Dems under 6
SNP under 45
Plaid and Greens 2 apiece.
#SurvationNationBaby!!!!!!
While a Conservative win looks overwhelmingly likely, there remains a small voice in my head saying 'yes, but...'.
ICM +1
Opinium 0
Survey Monkey -2
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872501916017754117
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872489590778732545
Even if the Tories govern very well, eventually people will tire of them. Arguably, Labour just has to rebuild quietly and wait for this to happen so that it can benefit from the swing back, and take the levers of Government for itself. And certainly, if we are returning to a two-party system in most of the country, one can understand why it would take this attitude: historical precedent suggests that, with the smaller players out of the way, relatively modest shifts in public opinion can first demolish large Government majorities, and then put Oppositions into power.