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  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks Mr Jack!

    Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide :smile:

    Precisely.

    And the point of the past six weeks was... ? ;)
    To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
    Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
    I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
    To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.

    As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you . It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!
    Paraphrasing, the mojo for Labour used to be that a leader with left-wing views had to pretend to be more moderate. But the new mojo is for a moderate leader to pretend to be more left-wing?

    I'd say that a lot of Labour moderates are scared soft-leftists. Corbyn has taught them they do not need to be frightened anymore!!

  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    2 controlled explosions in Vauxhall, two vehicles according to sky. Near the new US embassy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    TudorRose said:

    I wonder what the currant bun will have for their readers on tomorrows front page?

    At a guess, I don't think they'll be urging them to vote Corbyn!
    Possibly a repeat of the 92 headline; if Corbyn wins would the last person to leave the country please switch out the lights?
    My bags are already packed just in case.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    All political parties would be wise to do some serious thinking about new policies for the modern world, especially a post brexit one.

    How to.deal with rise of machine learning, an aging population etc etc etc

    Sadly there are no votes in thinking for the long term.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    IanB2 said:

    Labour's Idiocy:

    1. Not keeping its promise to change the voting system, when it had the chance.
    2. Not coming out in support of a fairer system, even now.

    Labour won't back PR because, providing that the party doesn't definitively rupture through an outbreak of civil war after a Tory landslide, it knows that it will endure as the principal Opposition, and therefore it is also confident that it will eventually wield power again on its own...Even if the Tories govern very well, eventually people will tire of them. Arguably, Labour just has to rebuild quietly and wait for this to happen so that it can benefit from the swing back, and take the levers of Government for itself.
    All makes sense.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    pbr2013 said:

    I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.

    Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?

    Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
    Whats the answer anybody?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I wonder what the currant bun will have for their readers on tomorrows front page?

    Pages 2 and 3 today were all about how our security services failed to act on the Italian tip off.
    I never put you down as a sun reader....
    There is often a copy in our staffroom.

    Their sports coverage is good.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    Doesn't this symbolise where Labour might be - Owen Jones helping defend Labour seats in London on election day?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872501916017754117

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872489590778732545

    How on earth could there be a problem in Tooting?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    jonny83 said:

    2 controlled explosions in Vauxhall, two vehicles according to sky. Near the new US embassy.

    Let's hope it is just some body isn't getting their Amazon delivery this evening!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Two controlled explosions near the new US Embassy in London
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Mr. F, agree on that centre-left party idea.

    Mr. B2, PR is the work of Satan.

    Welcome to the site, Mr. Cat.

    On the contrary, old nick stopped after having devised our current system, realising that its injustice and divisiveness could never be surpassed.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    Doesn't this symbolise where Labour might be - Owen Jones helping defend Labour seats in London on election day?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872501916017754117

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872489590778732545

    How on earth could there be a problem in Tooting?
    There isn't; it's on his way home!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks Mr Jack!

    Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide :smile:

    Precisely.

    And the point of the past six weeks was... ? ;)
    To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
    Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
    I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
    To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.

    As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you . It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!
    Paraphrasing, the mojo for Labour used to be that a leader with left-wing views had to pretend to be more moderate. But the new mojo is for a moderate leader to pretend to be more left-wing?

    I'd say that a lot of Labour moderates are scared soft-leftists. Corbyn has taught them they do not need to be frightened anymore!!

    Maybe the manifesto was NOT radical enough? If they had been more bold maybe the result would have been better for Labour than it will be. I am sure Corbyn and his supporters will advocate an even more radical alternative for GE2022!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    MikeL said:

    Look at the share, not the lead - Con share in final polls so far:

    ICM +1
    Opinium 0
    Survey Monkey -2

    What was the survey monkey one
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Thanks for the help on my Tory bet in Scotland earlier - it was indeed William Hill - and it's 9.5+

    14-1 was what I got the max £35 and change on....

    Come on Ruth!! Bring out the Klaxon.
  • Thanks Morris Dancer. Anything else i could look at for a 1.10 type area bet? Cons majority/May MP has too much risk for me.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Doesn't this symbolise where Labour might be - Owen Jones helping defend Labour seats in London on election day?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872501916017754117

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872489590778732545

    How on earth could there be a problem in Tooting?
    Somone has read the Evening Standard
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    pbr2013 said:

    I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.

    Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?

    Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
    Whats the answer anybody?
    As per previous discussions, you either believe a) younger voters wil oversleep as usual, turnout no different to 2015. Kudos to ICM/Comres, or b) younger voters will turn out in higher numbers than usual, at least half way towards YG/Survation. Tomorrow we'll know.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    IanB2 said:

    Anecdotal reports from SW London for the LibDems are quite positive.

    They're done for then.

    Anything other than a LibDem anecdote including a mass electoral facial hair epidemic (including the women voters) and punters flocking to the polls in sandals must be regarded as an admission of total failure in a seat.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    IanB2 said:

    pbr2013 said:

    I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.

    Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?

    Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
    It's actually been debated at length. The reason why many PB'ers are charting a middle path between ICM/Comres and YouGov/Survation.
    I was being sarcastic.
  • My final forecast is Tory majority 108. I had 128 at the start of the campaign.

    May's had an absolute stinker so won't make the gains from Labour I'd expected. She emerges as a hugely diminished figure personally and Tory MPs will feel like Tory MPs, not May MPs as she wanted. But the Lib Dem campaign was fundamentally misconceived (they who appeared until late on to be fighting the wrong election on the wrong policy) so she won't make losses to them (beyond the far margins at least). Corbyn had a good campaign, although not a great one - his big advantage was being grossly underestimated and looking good simply by not looking awful.

    It's all been unexpectedly interesting, and my confidence in my own prediction is much lower than it was at the start. But I'm going on the position from my limited perspective on the ground. It all looks much more like the froth blowing off May than something more fundamental. I definitely don't get the Maygasm from the early campaign - the breathless 50-somethings with their cult-like chanting of, "we must do this for Dear Theresa..." Indeed, enthusiasm for the woman has fallen off a cliff. BUT... nor do I get anything to say Survation is right and ICM wrong.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    pbr2013 said:

    I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.

    Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?

    Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
    Whats the answer anybody?
    It's a bit unknowable. Maybe 18-24s will turn out a bit more but inefficiently and not in enough numbers to be decisive is I think the consensus around here but happy to be corrected.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    IanB2 said:

    pbr2013 said:

    I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.

    Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?

    Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
    Whats the answer anybody?
    As per previous discussions, you either believe a) younger voters wil oversleep as usual, turnout no different to 2015. Kudos to ICM/Comres, or b) younger voters will turn out in higher numbers than usual, at least half way towards YG/Survation. Tomorrow we'll know.
    Thanks, That gives me some hope they are overstating lead a bit.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    IanB2 said:

    Labour's Idiocy:

    1. Not keeping its promise to change the voting system, when it had the chance.
    2. Not coming out in support of a fairer system, even now.

    Labour won't back PR because, providing that the party doesn't definitively rupture through an outbreak of civil war after a Tory landslide, it knows that it will endure as the principal Opposition, and therefore it is also confident that it will eventually wield power again on its own. The worst that it might have to do is rely on the SNP to provide confidence and supply at some point along the way.

    Even if the Tories govern very well, eventually people will tire of them. Arguably, Labour just has to rebuild quietly and wait for this to happen so that it can benefit from the swing back, and take the levers of Government for itself. And certainly, if we are returning to a two-party system in most of the country, one can understand why it would take this attitude: historical precedent suggests that, with the smaller players out of the way, relatively modest shifts in public opinion can first demolish large Government majorities, and then put Oppositions into power.
    The Jenkins Commission came up with AV (with a small number of additional members) as AV is probably the only electoral system that would be better for Labour than the present voting system. But because it would also have helped the Lib Dems it had to die.

    We have seen a number of other centre-left parties do very badly in proportional systems across Europe. If we had a proportional system in the UK then I'm pretty sure the same would have happened here.

    Just an idea for the Tories. Introduce STV and destroy the Labour party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    pbr2013 said:

    IanB2 said:

    pbr2013 said:

    I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.

    Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?

    Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
    It's actually been debated at length. The reason why many PB'ers are charting a middle path between ICM/Comres and YouGov/Survation.
    I was being sarcastic.
    Never works online without an emoji.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators? Well for what it's worth whilst we have wasted six weeks squabbling amongst ourselves the EU will have decided what the deal is, taking into account we could walk away. There maybe things on the fringes that might be negotiable but of no major import. Given that the argument that having a referendum on the deal with the three options is giving our strengh away is rubbish. I want to see people actually explaining the implications of each choice, especially those who believe no deal is better than a bad deal. The UK electorate is being led, blindfolded, believing we will negotiate. No let the EU put their deal on the table and then give the people the right to decide. If we can do this in six months rather than 18 it will be better for us all whatever the british people decide
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281

    MikeL said:

    Look at the share, not the lead - Con share in final polls so far:

    ICM +1
    Opinium 0
    Survey Monkey -2

    What was the survey monkey one
    SurveyMonkey poll for The Sun released late last night.

    42/38/6/4
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Francis maude is excellent. Top rate mind. Second best Tory PM we never had...
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    Doesn't this symbolise where Labour might be - Owen Jones helping defend Labour seats in London on election day?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872501916017754117

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872489590778732545

    How on earth could there be a problem in Tooting?
    Perhaps the, ahem, famed postal vote hasn't been so successful this year?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017
    I wonder how large the shy tory / lib dem effect is in the young. What 18-24 is going to admit voting tory or lib dem especially in the face of seemingly massive social media support for jezza.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    Thanks Morris Dancer. Anything else i could look at for a 1.10 type area bet? Cons majority/May MP has too much risk for me.

    If you wait a little while I think Cons majority will be there soon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    nichomar said:

    Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?

    Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.

    On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    IanB2 said:

    pbr2013 said:

    I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.

    Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?

    Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
    Whats the answer anybody?
    As per previous discussions, you either believe a) younger voters wil oversleep as usual, turnout no different to 2015. Kudos to ICM/Comres, or b) younger voters will turn out in higher numbers than usual, at least half way towards YG/Survation. Tomorrow we'll know.
    Option C: turnout increases, but includes more previous non-voters who were energised by the EU referendum - and, therefore, rather a lot of Leave backers who go to register support for Theresa May.

    We're all just guessing, aren't we? But at least it's almost time to start discovering the truth of it all...
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited June 2017

    Doesn't this symbolise where Labour might be - Owen Jones helping defend Labour seats in London on election day?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872501916017754117

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872489590778732545

    How on earth could there be a problem in Tooting?
    Somone has read the Evening Standard
    Labour are in deep trouble everywhere. Places you would not think might fall look as though they will to me. I am half tempted to put some money on a big tory majority with Betfair but I had my fingers burnt before with bets so maybe I will not!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
    We will have the chaos of the first weeks of PM Corbyn to distract us.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    nichomar said:

    Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators? Well for what it's worth whilst we have wasted six weeks squabbling amongst ourselves the EU will have decided what the deal is, taking into account we could walk away. There maybe things on the fringes that might be negotiable but of no major import. Given that the argument that having a referendum on the deal with the three options is giving our strengh away is rubbish. I want to see people actually explaining the implications of each choice, especially those who believe no deal is better than a bad deal. The UK electorate is being led, blindfolded, believing we will negotiate. No let the EU put their deal on the table and then give the people the right to decide. If we can do this in six months rather than 18 it will be better for us all whatever the british people decide

    We are told that No deal is better than a bad deal, but no real detail of what either means. For a supposed Brexit election that is pisspoor. The Tory manifesto gives the clearest view of May's vision, and grim and nonspecific in equal parts.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722
    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Look at the share, not the lead - Con share in final polls so far:

    ICM +1
    Opinium 0
    Survey Monkey -2

    What was the survey monkey one
    SurveyMonkey poll for The Sun released late last night.

    42/38/6/4
    Thanks
  • nichomar said:

    Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators? Well for what it's worth whilst we have wasted six weeks squabbling amongst ourselves the EU will have decided what the deal is, taking into account we could walk away. There maybe things on the fringes that might be negotiable but of no major import. Given that the argument that having a referendum on the deal with the three options is giving our strengh away is rubbish. I want to see people actually explaining the implications of each choice, especially those who believe no deal is better than a bad deal. The UK electorate is being led, blindfolded, believing we will negotiate. No let the EU put their deal on the table and then give the people the right to decide. If we can do this in six months rather than 18 it will be better for us all whatever the british people decide

    There's not a bad argument that the whole election has been one big act of procrastination by Tezza.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    who appointed Gina Miller as someone who represents anyone in this country?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?

    Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.

    On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
    The best Brexit negotiators would be

    Lord Mandelson, George Osborne, and Newcastle United's Managing Director Lee Charnley, the latter I mean got £30million from Spurs for Moussa Sissoko, that's hallmark of a good deal maker.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    ICM +1 CON surge!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited June 2017

    A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
    Ipsos MORI will be in the morning, but you know, we might not see another opinion poll for a few years..
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,224
    nichomar said:

    Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators? Well for what it's worth whilst we have wasted six weeks squabbling amongst ourselves the EU will have decided what the deal is, taking into account we could walk away. There maybe things on the fringes that might be negotiable but of no major import. Given that the argument that having a referendum on the deal with the three options is giving our strengh away is rubbish. I want to see people actually explaining the implications of each choice, especially those who believe no deal is better than a bad deal. The UK electorate is being led, blindfolded, believing we will negotiate. No let the EU put their deal on the table and then give the people the right to decide. If we can do this in six months rather than 18 it will be better for us all whatever the british people decide

    Our negotiating position is so weak, Nicho, that it matters little who leads for us.

    I suspect Labour would do slightly better because they didn't take us out of Europe, they haven't pissed off our former partners in the EU, and generally Europe tends to be a bit more 'Statist' than us. But frankly, I don't think it matters much who wins.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 0999, tempted to suggest 1.83 each on Alonso and Vandoorne to not be classified in Canada... [I did genuinely consider that myself but requires both to occur and it's possible one of them might finish].
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017
    As others have pointed out,

    There's a rick between LD's under 10.5 seats and under 10 seats on BF

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100394

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131700323

    Shouldn't be more than a ~10% difference in the odds IMO.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj

    Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?

    Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.

    On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
    The best Brexit negotiators would be

    Lord Mandelson, George Osborne, and Newcastle United's Managing Director Lee Charnley, the latter I mean got £30million from Spurs for Moussa Sissoko, that's hallmark of a good deal maker.
    and how much for Andy Carroll from whom?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,722

    Doesn't this symbolise where Labour might be - Owen Jones helping defend Labour seats in London on election day?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872501916017754117

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872489590778732545

    How on earth could there be a problem in Tooting?
    Somone has read the Evening Standard
    Labour are in deep trouble everywhere. Places you would not think might fall look as though they will to me. I am half tempted to put some money on a big tory majority with Betfair but I had my fingers burnt before with bets so maybe I will not!
    I dont think they are
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    If Farage was still ukip leader may would be absolutely screwed.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
    There'll be the LibDem leadership contest to look forward to.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?

    Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.

    On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
    The best Brexit negotiators would be

    Lord Mandelson, George Osborne, and Newcastle United's Managing Director Lee Charnley, the latter I mean got £30million from Spurs for Moussa Sissoko, that's hallmark of a good deal maker.
    and how much for Andy Carroll from whom?
    Andy Carroll scored a last minute winner in an FA Cup semi final against Everton, worth every penny.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,739

    A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
    Ipsos MORI will be in the morning, but you know, we might not see another opinion poll for a few years..
    About 300 years given that at least half of them will be wronger than a Macdonnell tax costing.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729

    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj

    I've had my biggest ever political bet on the majority... and still don't think I had enough on!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    TudorRose said:

    A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
    There'll be the LibDem leadership contest to look forward to.
    The 6 of them can surely just roll a dice for that?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    midwinter said:

    Doesn't this symbolise where Labour might be - Owen Jones helping defend Labour seats in London on election day?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872501916017754117

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872489590778732545

    How on earth could there be a problem in Tooting?
    Perhaps the, ahem, famed postal vote hasn't been so successful this year?
    This is the first GE with the new register. I think that might be quite interesting.
  • pbr2013 said:

    I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.

    Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?

    Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
    Why will it matter?

    75% or so of seats won't change hands in any circumstances so any increase in the 18-24 vote can make a difference only if in marginals and mostly the same way.

    I am far from sure 18-year-old Corbynistas understand the concept of marginals or indeed FPTP or indeed registering to vote.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Pong, if you've got the cash to play with, could probably back those and safely hedge with exactly 10 on Ladbrokes, to be all green.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,300
    TudorRose said:

    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj

    Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
    In norwich south a green surge, coupled with the lack of a UKIP candidate could see the tories come through the middle to win. not unheard of.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    If Farage was still ukip leader may would be absolutely screwed.
    Something to consider when people keep talking about replacing her with Cameroonians.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Slight disagreement between ICM and YouGov as things stand.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
    Ipsos MORI will be in the morning, but you know, we might not see another opinion poll for a few years..
    ENOUGH is ENOUGH of opinion polls .... :astonished:

    Who knew ?!?!?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Mortimer said:

    Francis maude is excellent. Top rate mind. Second best Tory PM we never had...

    Brought down by jerry cans...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    All political parties would be wise to do some serious thinking about new policies for the modern world, especially a post brexit one.

    How to.deal with rise of machine learning, an aging population etc etc etc

    Sadly there are no votes in thinking for the long term.
    Raised this issue several days ago while I'm 63 and retired what a on offer for under 40's is a disgrace in terms of the real issues facing their future. But oldies know best because they have more life experience!
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thanks Mr Jack!

    Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide :smile:

    Precisely.

    And the point of the past six weeks was... ? ;)
    To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
    Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
    I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
    To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.

    As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you . It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!
    Paraphrasing, the mojo for Labour used to be that a leader with left-wing views had to pretend to be more moderate. But the new mojo is for a moderate leader to pretend to be more left-wing?

    I'd say that a lot of Labour moderates are scared soft-leftists. Corbyn has taught them they do not need to be frightened anymore!!

    Maybe the manifesto was NOT radical enough? If they had been more bold maybe the result would have been better for Labour than it will be. I am sure Corbyn and his supporters will advocate an even more radical alternative for GE2022!
    Yes, that's what will lose them the 2021/22 election as well. It was the Wedgwood-Benn argument; we lost because we weren't left-wing enough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    TudorRose said:

    A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
    There'll be the LibDem leadership contest to look forward to.
    The 6 of them can surely just roll a dice for that?
    6? An optimist I see.

    In all seriousness, unless they unexpectedly get at the upper end of expectations, closer to 15 than 5, they should go for someone who managed to gain a seat - which means Jo Swinson, whoever is standing in Edinburgh West (assuming either manages a win) or Vince Cable, if he is lucky.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,739

    Doesn't this symbolise where Labour might be - Owen Jones helping defend Labour seats in London on election day?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872501916017754117

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872489590778732545

    How on earth could there be a problem in Tooting?
    Somone has read the Evening Standard
    Labour are in deep trouble everywhere. Places you would not think might fall look as though they will to me. I am half tempted to put some money on a big tory majority with Betfair but I had my fingers burnt before with bets so maybe I will not!
    I dont think they are
    No indeed.

    They may hold two of their four seats in Staffordshire.

    And then again, they may not.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    calum said:
    Doubt the Conservatives would be that high with the SNP still in the 50s tbh.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2017
    calum said:
    124! Blimey, they're not playing it safe.

    LDs so screwed.
  • TudorRose said:

    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj

    Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
    If you go with the YouGov model, that's free money. But it's a bit of a big "if". Bristol West is a bit of a weird seat, and they have a solid candidate. Sheffield Central looks too big an ask, but who knows if something funny may happen on a low turnout. Norwich South looks unlikely but they will doubtless be fighting it quite hard.

    My worry about it as a bet to really pile onto is that it's not like Macron going into second round in France, where unless the polls were massively wrong nationwide, you were fine. With this one, you just need something a bit odd to be going on under the radar in one of several seats (and seats are quite small really) to be badly burnt.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    isam said:

    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj

    I've had my biggest ever political bet on the majority... and still don't think I had enough on!
    I know -we only need a maj of 2 and literally no one, not even uber-Owen Jones is hoping for better than that for Labour, then it's been so tempting... I've got a few grand on it but would have done more.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    calum said:
    Doubt the Conservatives would be that high with the SNP still in the 50s tbh.
    I would be very disappointed if the SNP cannot be brought down below 50 - for all my initial prediction was around 52-53 for SNP.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    JackW said:

    A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
    Ipsos MORI will be in the morning, but you know, we might not see another opinion poll for a few years..
    ENOUGH is ENOUGH of opinion polls .... :astonished:

    Who knew ?!?!?
    2 or 3 people normally not Political anoraks have said that phrase resonated with them.. "At last"
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TudorRose said:

    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj

    Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
    Certainly not Norwich, but Bristol is not implausible.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I've had enough of opinion polls - I'd love not to see one again for a few years.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    If Farage was still ukip leader may would be absolutely screwed.
    Farage is not UKIP leader because he could see the collapse in the UKIP vote coming, and he didn't want to be associated with it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2017
    MikeL said:

    Con Maj tightening more - just gone 1.2

    £80k wanting to back at 1.21.

    Response to JackW?!

    Reality staring people in the face plus I imagine people who laid at 1.08 locking in their profit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,739

    TudorRose said:

    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj

    Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
    Certainly not Norwich, but Bristol is not implausible.
    Wouldn't they have to topple Kerry McCarthy to take a seat there though? Who is vegan, a climate change campaigner, in effect a Green in all but name (as well as being, in my experience, a rather nasty piece of work).
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?

    Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.

    On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
    The best Brexit negotiators would be

    Lord Mandelson, George Osborne, and Newcastle United's Managing Director Lee Charnley, the latter I mean got £30million from Spurs for Moussa Sissoko, that's hallmark of a good deal maker.
    LOL!

    To be serious there is no way you can go in with rabid remainers negotiating on our behalf. If May moves Davis aside and appoints Ben Gummer then expect a backbench revolt in the first week of the parliament.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    TudorRose said:

    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj

    Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
    If you go with the YouGov model, that's free money. But it's a bit of a big "if". Bristol West is a bit of a weird seat, and they have a solid candidate. Sheffield Central looks too big an ask, but who knows if something funny may happen on a low turnout. Norwich South looks unlikely but they will doubtless be fighting it quite hard.

    My worry about it as a bet to really pile onto is that it's not like Macron going into second round in France, where unless the polls were massively wrong nationwide, you were fine. With this one, you just need something a bit odd to be going on under the radar in one of several seats (and seats are quite small really) to be badly burnt.
    Thanks - I think I'll stick to piling some more on the Cons majority.
  • dazzadazza Posts: 28

    pbr2013 said:

    I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.

    Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?

    Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
    Why will it matter?

    75% or so of seats won't change hands in any circumstances so any increase in the 18-24 vote can make a difference only if in marginals and mostly the same way.

    I am far from sure 18-year-old Corbynistas understand the concept of marginals or indeed FPTP or indeed registering to vote.
    18-24 turnout in 2015 was 43%. If that goes to say 70%, that's another 1.5m voters. But not all with break for LAB, some will go to CON, greens etc. But, still, giving LAB benefit of doubt, there could be an approx 1m to 1.2m extra LAB voters. But where are they located? A lot are apparently in the cities, which are mostly already safe LAB. But if they were instead uniformly distributed, then I estimate that could be swing of 25 to 30 seats (eg, CON -12 LAB +12). Significant, but likely not enough to counter the larger voter migration, which is UKIP to CON.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "For 24 hours, Curtice lives and breathes a general election. As voters head to the polling stations, he is holed up in a top secret location in central London along with a small group of other academics and number crunchers. From early morning, exit poll data compiled at over 100 selected polling stations starts to pour in to the charmless BBC office where the analysis begins. By early afternoon, clear patterns are beginning to emerge, allowing the boffins to start to make more detailed predictions about seats won and lost. At about 2pm, Curtice could make a fair punt at the result but he won’t, yet. There is a small window of time as the polling stations close, before David Dimbleby makes the announcement, and before Curtice steps into the taxi at 10.03pm which will ferry him to the BBC studios at Elsetree to begin a marathon of political commentary through the night, where only he really knows what the exit poll is saying and what it could mean for the country. He also knows that there is that chance (albeit a slim one in the context of his past record) that whatever the exit poll says, he and his team could be the heroes or zeroes of the day when the final tally is realised. But there is little time to ponder. Curtice gets to the studio and the one question on everyone’s lips is ‘who is in and who is out?’ And so it begins."

    http://www.holyrood.com/articles/inside-politics/man-behind-numbers-interview-professor-john-curtice
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Doesn't this symbolise where Labour might be - Owen Jones helping defend Labour seats in London on election day?

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872501916017754117

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872489590778732545

    How on earth could there be a problem in Tooting?
    Perhaps the, ahem, famed postal vote hasn't been so successful this year?
    This is the first GE with the new register. I think that might be quite interesting.
    Yep. Turnout could be down by 100s in some flats!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Ms. Apocalypse, bad news, there's going to be one with millions of participants tomorrow ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    TudorRose said:

    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj

    Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
    If you go with the YouGov model, that's free money. But it's a bit of a big "if". Bristol West is a bit of a weird seat, and they have a solid candidate. Sheffield Central looks too big an ask, but who knows if something funny may happen on a low turnout. Norwich South looks unlikely but they will doubtless be fighting it quite hard.

    My worry about it as a bet to really pile onto is that it's not like Macron going into second round in France, where unless the polls were massively wrong nationwide, you were fine. With this one, you just need something a bit odd to be going on under the radar in one of several seats (and seats are quite small really) to be badly burnt.
    Just the 3 bags of sand laying Jez at the moment and not 10 as you're right the polls aren't all in agreement.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited June 2017

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?

    Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.

    On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
    The best Brexit negotiators would be

    Lord Mandelson, George Osborne, and Newcastle United's Managing Director Lee Charnley, the latter I mean got £30million from Spurs for Moussa Sissoko, that's hallmark of a good deal maker.
    LOL!

    To be serious there is no way you can go in with rabid remainers negotiating on our behalf. If May moves Davis aside and appoints Ben Gummer then expect a backbench revolt in the first week of the parliament.
    Depends, the story was she was going to move Davis to the Foreign Office and Gummer to replace David as Brexit Secretary, in that scenario I'd expect no revolt.

    Only if she sacked or demoted Davis and replaced him with Gummer would we see a revolt.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    ydoethur said:

    TudorRose said:

    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj

    Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
    Certainly not Norwich, but Bristol is not implausible.
    Wouldn't they have to topple Kerry McCarthy to take a seat there though? Who is vegan, a climate change campaigner, in effect a Green in all but name (as well as being, in my experience, a rather nasty piece of work).
    Bristol West is the target for the Greens, not Bristol East.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Alistair said:

    MikeL said:

    Con Maj tightening more - just gone 1.2

    £80k wanting to back at 1.21.

    Response to JackW?!

    Reality staring people in the face plus I imagine people who laid at 1.08 locking in their profit.
    As I do not bet can someone explain the significance of those figures
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    isam said:

    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj

    I've had my biggest ever political bet on the majority... and still don't think I had enough on!
    I lumped on a few weeks back then the polls started to tighten. Traded out !
    Back in now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    I've had enough of opinion polls - I'd love not to see one again for a few years.

    As someone wise once said

    Polls have come to shape the entire political narrative. Without them, there is no political narrative. That's why there is a compulsion to believe polls - even during a period when pollsters have got it spectacularly wrong - EUref, GE 2015 etc. Even I am starting to think the polls might be right, because right now it seems delusional to totally dismiss them. But hey, we could be on course for another polling disaster. If that's the case, then I think those interested in politics must let go of looking too much into polls.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Alistair said:

    MikeL said:

    Con Maj tightening more - just gone 1.2

    £80k wanting to back at 1.21.

    Response to JackW?!

    Reality staring people in the face plus I imagine people who laid at 1.08 locking in their profit.
    As I do not bet can someone explain the significance of those figures
    The punters are getting more confident on the Tories.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,739
    edited June 2017

    ydoethur said:

    TudorRose said:

    Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....

    1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj

    Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
    Certainly not Norwich, but Bristol is not implausible.
    Wouldn't they have to topple Kerry McCarthy to take a seat there though? Who is vegan, a climate change campaigner, in effect a Green in all but name (as well as being, in my experience, a rather nasty piece of work).
    Bristol West is the target for the Greens, not Bristol East.
    Ah, hadn't realised that. Don't know much about that seat.

    As an aside, if Kerry McCarthy were defeated that really would be a split-my-sides moment. But it's not terribly likely to happen.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    MikeL said:

    Con Maj tightening more - just gone 1.2

    £80k wanting to back at 1.21.

    Response to JackW?!

    Reality staring people in the face plus I imagine people who laid at 1.08 locking in their profit.
    As I do not bet can someone explain the significance of those figures
    The punters are getting more confident on the Tories.
    Thanks
This discussion has been closed.