A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
There'll be the LibDem leadership contest to look forward to.
The 6 of them can surely just roll a dice for that?
6? An optimist I see.
In all seriousness, unless they unexpectedly get at the upper end of expectations, closer to 15 than 5, they should go for someone who managed to gain a seat - which means Jo Swinson, whoever is standing in Edinburgh West (assuming either manages a win) or Vince Cable, if he is lucky.
I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.
Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?
Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
Why will it matter?
75% or so of seats won't change hands in any circumstances so any increase in the 18-24 vote can make a difference only if in marginals and mostly the same way.
I am far from sure 18-year-old Corbynistas understand the concept of marginals or indeed FPTP or indeed registering to vote.
18-24 turnout in 2015 was 43%. If that goes to say 70%, that's another 1.5m voters. But not all with break for LAB, some will go to CON, greens etc. But, still, giving LAB benefit of doubt, there could be an approx 1m to 1.2m extra LAB voters. But where are they located? A lot are apparently in the cities, which are mostly already safe LAB. But if they were instead uniformly distributed, then I estimate that could be swing of 25 to 30 seats (eg, CON -12 LAB +12). Significant, but likely not enough to counter the larger voter migration, which is UKIP to CON.
I think turnout among 18-24 year olds could hit 55% or so, compared to about 66% overall. I think it could only get to 70% if overall turnout was approaching 80% (we got 78% in 1992).
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
Certainly not Norwich, but Bristol is not implausible.
Wouldn't they have to topple Kerry McCarthy to take a seat there though? Who is vegan, a climate change campaigner, in effect a Green in all but name (as well as being, in my experience, a rather nasty piece of work).
Bristol West is the target for the Greens, not Bristol East.
Ah, hadn't realised that. Don't know much about that seat.
Described to me once by a Labour (non-corbynite) Bristolian voter as the smuggest seat in Bristol - where someone can vote Labour, Green or LD with absolutely no fear of accidentally letting the Tories in via the backdoor.
A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
There'll be the LibDem leadership contest to look forward to.
The 6 of them can surely just roll a dice for that?
6? An optimist I see.
In all seriousness, unless they unexpectedly get at the upper end of expectations, closer to 15 than 5, they should go for someone who managed to gain a seat - which means Jo Swinson, whoever is standing in Edinburgh West (assuming either manages a win) or Vince Cable, if he is lucky.
vince is 74, how old was ming?
Age ain't nothing but a number!
But they shouldn't go for Vince, assuming he makes it back into Parliament.
I currently work part time in a Sheffield library, which will be a polling station tomorrow.
Today, we realised that when voters enter our library they be confronted with a red tinted photo of Tony Blair, grinning at them from the cover of The Blair Decade, which led to some lengthy debate over whether people might think we were trying to influence the voters. In the end we decided to wait and see if anyone complains.
Mr. Doethur, is McCarthy the one who wanted meat eating to be treated in a similar manner to smoking?
I was more concerned with her appalling twisting and turning over the school I was teaching in in support of the Council.
But I believe you're right, which is probably why Corbyn thought she would do a good job at Environment and Food. She was also charged with electoral fraud in 2010 for revealing postal vote numbers illegally.
It says something about Corbyn's leadership if even she couldn't endure it for more than a year.
I currently work part time in a Sheffield library, which will be a polling station tomorrow.
Today, we realised that when voters enter our library they be confronted with a red tinted photo of Tony Blair, grinning at them from the cover of The Blair Decade, which led to some lengthy debate over whether people might think we were trying to influence the voters. In the end we decided to wait and see if anyone complains.
A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
There'll be the LibDem leadership contest to look forward to.
The 6 of them can surely just roll a dice for that?
6? An optimist I see.
In all seriousness, unless they unexpectedly get at the upper end of expectations, closer to 15 than 5, they should go for someone who managed to gain a seat - which means Jo Swinson, whoever is standing in Edinburgh West (assuming either manages a win) or Vince Cable, if he is lucky.
vince is 74, how old was ming?
Age ain't nothing but a number!
But they shouldn't go for Vince, assuming he makes it back into Parliament.
Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators? Well for what it's worth whilst we have wasted six weeks squabbling amongst ourselves the EU will have decided what the deal is, taking into account we could walk away. There maybe things on the fringes that might be negotiable but of no major import. Given that the argument that having a referendum on the deal with the three options is giving our strengh away is rubbish. I want to see people actually explaining the implications of each choice, especially those who believe no deal is better than a bad deal. The UK electorate is being led, blindfolded, believing we will negotiate. No let the EU put their deal on the table and then give the people the right to decide. If we can do this in six months rather than 18 it will be better for us all whatever the british people decide
Our negotiating position is so weak, Nicho, that it matters little who leads for us.
I suspect Labour would do slightly better because they didn't take us out of Europe, they haven't pissed off our former partners in the EU, and generally Europe tends to be a bit more 'Statist' than us. But frankly, I don't think it matters much who wins.
I actually believe this is where the lib Dems got it wrong, they allowed the media to turn the policy into a second referendum on the original question. I've spent a few minutes with people who thought that what was on offer who accepted it was rather a good idea to do it. This includes those who actually want no deal and fealing they will be betrayed. It's a difficult concept to get over but it was handled wrongly
Mr. Scrapheap, impossible to disagree with that list. We must renationalise crippling fees, end decent housing for everyone, and provide railways for the NHS.
I predicted 124 at the start of May, although my forecast for the Tories is technically slightly different to that of Mr Warren as he appears to include Mr Speaker in the Conservative total of 387, whereas I estimated the Tories at 387 excluding Bercow.
The main difference between our estimates is for the Lib Dems, where I have been significantly more optimistic (thus weighing down on the Labour and SNP totals a tad.) Of course, this chap is somewhat more learned in these matters than I am - and if his estimate is right then I'll take the Conservative landslide, and not feel all that disappointed about the Lib Dems being pulverised...
Since weak and unstable's visit to Southampton,a Labour win has been backed to 6-5 in Southampton Test.If anyone has a high incumbency factor it is Alan Whitehead in winning all elections since 1997.He must be doing something right as an MP.Southampton is another city quite happy to be red.
Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?
Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.
On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
The best Brexit negotiators would be
Lord Mandelson, George Osborne, and Newcastle United's Managing Director Lee Charnley, the latter I mean got £30million from Spurs for Moussa Sissoko, that's hallmark of a good deal maker.
Our best Brexit negotiator would be Shadsy. He took £1000 from someone on a Green majority at 1000-1. He could talk the birds out of the trees.
18-24 turnout in 2015 was 43%. If that goes to say 70%, that's another 1.5m voters. But not all with break for LAB, some will go to CON, greens etc. But, still, giving LAB benefit of doubt, there could be an approx 1m to 1.2m extra LAB voters. But where are they located? A lot are apparently in the cities, which are mostly already safe LAB. But if they were instead uniformly distributed, then I estimate that could be swing of 25 to 30 seats (eg, CON -12 LAB +12). Significant, but likely not enough to counter the larger voter migration, which is UKIP to CON.
The above sets out why I think it won't happen or won't matter.
- 43% will not become 70% - If it did the 70% would not necessarily break the same way as the 43% - Anything that energises votes for the left will just as likely energise opposing votes just as much - And the latter unlike the former really do vote - The distribution is unlikely to be uniform because the electorate isn't - To make a difference, a "new" vote has both to be in a non-safe seat, and not cancelled by an opposing "new" vote - Local factors are likely to swamp any effects - so in constituencies like Hendon and Finchley the votes of a few 18 year old Corbynistas are going to be blown away by the votes of the 77% of Jewish voters who will be supporting the Tories; and as you say there are the UKIP switchers
I expect something like 46:35 or 45:33 and a 100-seat majority.
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
If you go with the YouGov model, that's free money. But it's a bit of a big "if". Bristol West is a bit of a weird seat, and they have a solid candidate. Sheffield Central looks too big an ask, but who knows if something funny may happen on a low turnout. Norwich South looks unlikely but they will doubtless be fighting it quite hard.
My worry about it as a bet to really pile onto is that it's not like Macron going into second round in France, where unless the polls were massively wrong nationwide, you were fine. With this one, you just need something a bit odd to be going on under the radar in one of several seats (and seats are quite small really) to be badly burnt.
Thanks - I think I'll stick to piling some more on the Cons majority.
You may be right. But I think for it to be what young people today call a "no-brainer" (which I understand is the opposite of what it sounds like), that big YouGov model would have to be demonstrated from first principles to be wrong. It may indeed be wrong, but until that demonstration is done, it can't be said to be _obviously_ wrong.
Just lodged majority of 66 with 12 Lib Dem seats on Rentoul's predictor. On the high side for the Lib Dems but achievable.
But given that a high-up in a local campaign told me the other day "our canvassing returns are all over the place, we really have no idea where this is going", it's just plucking numbers out of thin air really. Tomorrow I need to stock up on booze for the election night special...
36 hours from now...conservatives will realize they have nothing to look forward to for the next 5 years..
Nothing is more depressing than Theresa Mays lack of clarity on any policies but don't worry cuts for the richest 1% and hammer the rest.
a vote for conservative is a vote against your country
there are millions of traitors living in this state and the people to blame are the few press barons that destroy kind of public policy debate by using project fear.
I currently work part time in a Sheffield library, which will be a polling station tomorrow.
Today, we realised that when voters enter our library they be confronted with a red tinted photo of Tony Blair, grinning at them from the cover of The Blair Decade, which led to some lengthy debate over whether people might think we were trying to influence the voters. In the end we decided to wait and see if anyone complains.
Mr. Scrapheap, impossible to disagree with that list. We must renationalise crippling fees, end decent housing for everyone, and provide railways for the NHS.
I predicted 124 at the start of May, although my forecast for the Tories is technically slightly different to that of Mr Warren as he appears to include Mr Speaker in the Conservative total of 387, whereas I estimated the Tories at 387 excluding Bercow.
The main difference between our estimates is for the Lib Dems, where I have been significantly more optimistic (thus weighing down on the Labour and SNP totals a tad.) Of course, this chap is somewhat more learned in these matters than I am - and if his estimate is right then I'll take the Conservative landslide, and not feel all that disappointed about the Lib Dems being pulverised...
No sympathy for liberal democrats
They did the deal of the century with the devil and they destroyed their party by giving the tories power.
36 hours from now...conservatives will realize they have nothing to look forward to for the next 5 years..
Nothing is more depressing than Theresa Mays lack of clarity on any policies but don't worry cuts for the richest 1% and hammer the rest.
a vote for conservative is a vote against your country
there are millions of traitors living in this state and the people to blame are the few press barons that destroy kind of public policy debate by using project fear.
36 hours from now...conservatives will realize they have nothing to look forward to for the next 5 years..
Nothing is more depressing than Theresa Mays lack of clarity on any policies but don't worry cuts for the richest 1% and hammer the rest.
a vote for conservative is a vote against your country
there are millions of traitors living in this state and the people to blame are the few press barons that destroy kind of public policy debate by using project fear.
36 hours from now...conservatives will realize they have nothing to look forward to for the next 5 years..
Nothing is more depressing than Theresa Mays lack of clarity on any policies but don't worry cuts for the richest 1% and hammer the rest.
a vote for conservative is a vote against your country
there are millions of traitors living in this state and the people to blame are the few press barons that destroy kind of public policy debate by using project fear.
I know I shouldn't feed the trolls, but this is precisely the kind of attitude I see from my Corbynite chums on Facebook and it never ceases to amaze me how they don't realise it doesn't just people off their side, it actively gets them marching down the polling booth to vote Conservative.
I predicted 124 at the start of May, although my forecast for the Tories is technically slightly different to that of Mr Warren as he appears to include Mr Speaker in the Conservative total of 387, whereas I estimated the Tories at 387 excluding Bercow.
The main difference between our estimates is for the Lib Dems, where I have been significantly more optimistic (thus weighing down on the Labour and SNP totals a tad.) Of course, this chap is somewhat more learned in these matters than I am - and if his estimate is right then I'll take the Conservative landslide, and not feel all that disappointed about the Lib Dems being pulverised...
No sympathy for liberal democrats
They did the deal of the century with the devil and they destroyed their party by giving the tories power.
On the contrary, they did what was best for the country and managed to get some of their manifesto implemented (something that will have eluded Lab for well over a decade by 2022). They then got shafted by their partners and did a total u-turn and elected a left wing social conservative, which scared away any voters that hadn't already left them.
I predicted 124 at the start of May, although my forecast for the Tories is technically slightly different to that of Mr Warren as he appears to include Mr Speaker in the Conservative total of 387, whereas I estimated the Tories at 387 excluding Bercow.
The main difference between our estimates is for the Lib Dems, where I have been significantly more optimistic (thus weighing down on the Labour and SNP totals a tad.) Of course, this chap is somewhat more learned in these matters than I am - and if his estimate is right then I'll take the Conservative landslide, and not feel all that disappointed about the Lib Dems being pulverised...
No sympathy for liberal democrats
They did the deal of the century with the devil and they destroyed their party by giving the tories power.
Yeah, what were they thinking, trying to come to working agreement with another party in the interests of stable governance of the country, putting the national interest above partisan ideals.
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
If you go with the YouGov model, that's free money. But it's a bit of a big "if". Bristol West is a bit of a weird seat, and they have a solid candidate. Sheffield Central looks too big an ask, but who knows if something funny may happen on a low turnout. Norwich South looks unlikely but they will doubtless be fighting it quite hard.
My worry about it as a bet to really pile onto is that it's not like Macron going into second round in France, where unless the polls were massively wrong nationwide, you were fine. With this one, you just need something a bit odd to be going on under the radar in one of several seats (and seats are quite small really) to be badly burnt.
Caroline Lucas to retain Brighton Pavilion but Norwich South,Clive Lewis,and Thangham Debonnaire,Bristol West Labour holds.The Labour party has a successful local model the Greens cannot match.Norwich S. is available at 1-4 to 1-6 a Labour hold and Bristol W 1-3 to 1-10.Ladbrokes are offering 1-3.Loss leader perhaps.
I currently work part time in a Sheffield library, which will be a polling station tomorrow.
Today, we realised that when voters enter our library they be confronted with a red tinted photo of Tony Blair, grinning at them from the cover of The Blair Decade, which led to some lengthy debate over whether people might think we were trying to influence the voters. In the end we decided to wait and see if anyone complains.
This library is in Sheffield Brightside, a pretty safe seat.
One of the other librarians suggested that even if we plastered the library with faked-up photos of Blair and Thatcher in a steamy embrace it probably wouldn't affect the final vote one bit.
Thankfully channel 4 have reported that Corbyn was in weaver vale
Tories on this dishonest blog were trying to create lies and a narrative saying he was in safe runcorn seats.
Fear will always defeat hope because we live in a country full of selfish people who put themselves first and enjoy bullying people who don't have things.
The fact people on this site like esther mcvey says everything - this was a woman that kicked disabled people while they were down and led people to suicide.
Her reward a safe tory seat in tatton. DISGUSTING.
"So while the Conservatives have faded slightly since my previous analysis, I still believe Mr Corbyn and Labour have a very narrow path to depriving Mrs May of a majority.
As well as the polling, there is also uncertainty about how votes might translate into seats. A case could plausibly be made for any outcome between the 2015 result and a historic landslide.
But the outperformance of the Conservatives in areas with large numbers of Labour’s Leave voters — which includes many marginal seats — puts the likeliest single outcome with the Conservatives on 374 seats (a majority of 98) with an 80 per cent probability of a seat total between 329 and 412 and a more than a 90 per cent probability of an overall majority.
Labour can expect to be between 168 and 246 seats, and the odds are finely balanced as to whether the party can stay above the psychologically important 200-seat mark.
The Lib Dems may gain some seats and lose others, to end up with a similar number of MPs to 2015, and on a good night might hope double that tally. The result in Scotland is particularly uncertain due to the paucity of polling there but, the Scottish National party is likely to lose anywhere from five to 20 seats."
Mr. Scrapheap, impossible to disagree with that list. We must renationalise crippling fees, end decent housing for everyone, and provide railways for the NHS.
36 hours from now...conservatives will realize they have nothing to look forward to for the next 5 years..
Nothing is more depressing than Theresa Mays lack of clarity on any policies but don't worry cuts for the richest 1% and hammer the rest.
a vote for conservative is a vote against your country
there are millions of traitors living in this state and the people to blame are the few press barons that destroy kind of public policy debate by using project fear.
I know I shouldn't feed the trolls, but this is precisely the kind of attitude I see from my Corbynite chums on Facebook and it never ceases to amaze me how they don't realise it doesn't just people off their side, it actively gets them marching down the polling booth to vote Conservative.
One wonders if they will wake up on June 9th...
Orwell made a similar point about lower middle class people on fairly small incomes, who only had to hear someone ranting on about class enemies to turn out in droves for the Conservatives.
Thankfully channel 4 have reported that Corbyn was in weaver vale
Tories on this dishonest blog were trying to create lies and a narrative saying he was in safe runcorn seats.
Fear will always defeat hope because we live in a country full of selfish people who put themselves first and enjoy bullying people who don't have things.
The fact people on this site like esther mcvey says everything - this was a woman that kicked disabled people while they were down and led people to suicide.
Her reward a safe tory seat in tatton. DISGUSTING.
I went off the Sky News graphic, which it turned out later was wrong. That's Sky News' fault.
Thankfully channel 4 have reported that Corbyn was in weaver vale
Tories on this dishonest blog were trying to create lies and a narrative saying he was in safe runcorn seats.
Fear will always defeat hope because we live in a country full of selfish people who put themselves first and enjoy bullying people who don't have things.
The fact people on this site like esther mcvey says everything - this was a woman that kicked disabled people while they were down and led people to suicide.
Her reward a safe tory seat in tatton. DISGUSTING.
So will we next be seeing you in 5 years time after tomorrow night? Would you like to add to the PB folklore by boasting about how a certain part of Labour's game is going to win Corbyn the day? The traditional choice is the ground game, but I'll leave it up to you.
"So while the Conservatives have faded slightly since my previous analysis, I still believe Mr Corbyn and Labour have a very narrow path to depriving Mrs May of a majority.
Well, he's right that the position before the GE call was very very strong for the Tories, and that while Labour seem to have gained ground, it is very hard for that to have been enough.
But I am inherently incapable of predicting a Tory landslide. That Labour range of 168-246 is very very wide though, considering he says the odds are 'finely balanced' as to if they can even get over 200.
I know I shouldn't feed the trolls, but this is precisely the kind of attitude I see from my Corbynite chums on Facebook
Really? I've genuinely been surprised this time at the number of my "normal" Facebook friends who are openly supporting Corbyn but in a rather gentle, mild, non-confrontational manner. I don't think I've seen any of them share Labour material in previous elections: I'd had most of them down as generic centrists, a long way from Corbyn. Just anecdata, of course, but he really does seem to have broken through. (And I'm early 40s so this isn't a "youth vote" thing.)
The other surprise, for me, is the amount of tactical voting that's going on; and that's why I'm slightly bullish about the Lib Dems' prospects in the more affluent, Europhile seats.
ComRes also produced a second projection, reallocating "don’t know" voters on the basis of preferred prime minister, in which the Conservative lead rises to 12 points, on 46 per cent, compared with Labour’s 34 per cent
I predicted 124 at the start of May, although my forecast for the Tories is technically slightly different to that of Mr Warren as he appears to include Mr Speaker in the Conservative total of 387, whereas I estimated the Tories at 387 excluding Bercow.
The main difference between our estimates is for the Lib Dems, where I have been significantly more optimistic (thus weighing down on the Labour and SNP totals a tad.) Of course, this chap is somewhat more learned in these matters than I am - and if his estimate is right then I'll take the Conservative landslide, and not feel all that disappointed about the Lib Dems being pulverised...
No sympathy for liberal democrats
They did the deal of the century with the devil and they destroyed their party by giving the tories power.
I'm afraid this just shows your ignorance of the past. The lib Dems went into coalition because they were patriots possibly knowing the likely outcome. They did it to stabilize the markets and yes have the opportunity to implement some of their policies. What would have happened if they hadn't there was no offer from labour on the table, they could have said "get on with it" and let Cameron call the next election when he wanted. This place is not where you continually preach the same message which implies that the only " patriotic" vote is for labour. If you believed that you would be out on the doorstep trying to achieve something. I know I shouldn't feed the trolls but JC has just told me on Tv he has done 79 rallies in six weeks, shame he couldn't have done that a year ago instead of going on holiday.
Thankfully channel 4 have reported that Corbyn was in weaver vale
Tories on this dishonest blog were trying to create lies and a narrative saying he was in safe runcorn seats.
Fear will always defeat hope because we live in a country full of selfish people who put themselves first and enjoy bullying people who don't have things.
The fact people on this site like esther mcvey says everything - this was a woman that kicked disabled people while they were down and led people to suicide.
Her reward a safe tory seat in tatton. DISGUSTING.
I currently work part time in a Sheffield library, which will be a polling station tomorrow.
Today, we realised that when voters enter our library they be confronted with a red tinted photo of Tony Blair, grinning at them from the cover of The Blair Decade, which led to some lengthy debate over whether people might think we were trying to influence the voters. In the end we decided to wait and see if anyone complains.
ComRes also produced a second projection, reallocating "don’t know" voters on the basis of preferred prime minister, in which the Conservative lead rises to 12 points, on 46 per cent, compared with Labour’s 34 per cent.
I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.
Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?
Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
Why will it matter?
75% or so of seats won't change hands in any circumstances so any increase in the 18-24 vote can make a difference only if in marginals and mostly the same way.
I am far from sure 18-year-old Corbynistas understand the concept of marginals or indeed FPTP or indeed registering to vote.
18-24 turnout in 2015 was 43%. If that goes to say 70%, that's another 1.5m voters. But not all with break for LAB, some will go to CON, greens etc. But, still, giving LAB benefit of doubt, there could be an approx 1m to 1.2m extra LAB voters. But where are they located? A lot are apparently in the cities, which are mostly already safe LAB. But if they were instead uniformly distributed, then I estimate that could be swing of 25 to 30 seats (eg, CON -12 LAB +12). Significant, but likely not enough to counter the larger voter migration, which is UKIP to CON.
I think turnout among 18-24 year olds could hit 55% or so, compared to about 66% overall. I think it could only get to 70% if overall turnout was approaching 80% (we got 78% in 1992).
Well, in the YouGuv models, they do take high numbers, 70%, even over 80% (this is for the youth turnout). They are basing it on the youth themselves saying they intend to vote. But ofcourse whether they actually do is entirely something else.
I've taken the plumge and gone for a 96 tory majority on John Rentoul's predictor - 1 of which will be OXWab and I am puzzled by LD optimism - who could vote against Nicola - the slayer of the loathsome Evan Harris, a bitter ungracious man who got his comeuppance - Nicola Blackwood has worked hard and I think it highly unlikely she'll be tossed aside
If Mark Senior is still about you can get on Tom Brake now at 2/1 People in the know know...
To retain his seat or to become party leader?
Retain
If he does it will be an impressive achievement. Majority of only 1500 over the Tories last time, with a fairly heavy reliance on Labour tactical support. No UKIP candidate, but a Green candidate. Sutton borough voted for Leave in the referendum, and saw a strong UKIP performance in the Euro-elections.
36 hours from now...conservatives will realize they have nothing to look forward to for the next 5 years..
Nothing is more depressing than Theresa Mays lack of clarity on any policies but don't worry cuts for the richest 1% and hammer the rest.
a vote for conservative is a vote against your country
there are millions of traitors living in this state and the people to blame are the few press barons that destroy kind of public policy debate by using project fear.
Long shift. Let's hope that you're not being paid by results.
Comments
But they shouldn't go for Vince, assuming he makes it back into Parliament.
I anticipate a coalition between the Tezzie Party and the Ruthie Party.
Today, we realised that when voters enter our library they be confronted with a red tinted photo of Tony Blair, grinning at them from the cover of The Blair Decade, which led to some lengthy debate over whether people might think we were trying to influence the voters. In the end we decided to wait and see if anyone complains.
You can see the cover in question on Amazon here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Blair-Decade-1997-2007-Soundbites-Defined/dp/184275209X/
https://twitter.com/M_Star_Online/status/872511751417462787
But I believe you're right, which is probably why Corbyn thought she would do a good job at Environment and Food. She was also charged with electoral fraud in 2010 for revealing postal vote numbers illegally.
It says something about Corbyn's leadership if even she couldn't endure it for more than a year.
What will matter is how many former kippers go home to Labour and others.
The main difference between our estimates is for the Lib Dems, where I have been significantly more optimistic (thus weighing down on the Labour and SNP totals a tad.) Of course, this chap is somewhat more learned in these matters than I am - and if his estimate is right then I'll take the Conservative landslide, and not feel all that disappointed about the Lib Dems being pulverised...
- 43% will not become 70%
- If it did the 70% would not necessarily break the same way as the 43%
- Anything that energises votes for the left will just as likely energise opposing votes just as much
- And the latter unlike the former really do vote
- The distribution is unlikely to be uniform because the electorate isn't
- To make a difference, a "new" vote has both to be in a non-safe seat, and not cancelled by an opposing "new" vote
- Local factors are likely to swamp any effects - so in constituencies like Hendon and Finchley the votes of a few 18 year old Corbynistas are going to be blown away by the votes of the 77% of Jewish voters who will be supporting the Tories; and as you say there are the UKIP switchers
I expect something like 46:35 or 45:33 and a 100-seat majority.
But given that a high-up in a local campaign told me the other day "our canvassing returns are all over the place, we really have no idea where this is going", it's just plucking numbers out of thin air really. Tomorrow I need to stock up on booze for the election night special...
Nothing is more depressing than Theresa Mays lack of clarity on any policies but don't worry cuts for the richest 1% and hammer the rest.
a vote for conservative is a vote against your country
there are millions of traitors living in this state and the people to blame are the few press barons that destroy kind of public policy debate by using project fear.
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Politics/Pix/pictures/2001/03/09/PAdemoneyes.gif
They did the deal of the century with the devil and they destroyed their party by giving the tories power.
One wonders if they will wake up on June 9th...
One of the other librarians suggested that even if we plastered the library with faked-up photos of Blair and Thatcher in a steamy embrace it probably wouldn't affect the final vote one bit.
Con 342
Lab 234
LD 7
oth 67
Tories on this dishonest blog were trying to create lies and a narrative saying he was in safe runcorn seats.
Fear will always defeat hope because we live in a country full of selfish people who put themselves first and enjoy bullying people who don't have things.
The fact people on this site like esther mcvey says everything - this was a woman that kicked disabled people while they were down and led people to suicide.
Her reward a safe tory seat in tatton. DISGUSTING.
People in the know know...
"So while the Conservatives have faded slightly since my previous analysis, I still believe Mr Corbyn and Labour have a very narrow path to depriving Mrs May of a majority.
As well as the polling, there is also uncertainty about how votes might translate into seats. A case could plausibly be made for any outcome between the 2015 result and a historic landslide.
But the outperformance of the Conservatives in areas with large numbers of Labour’s Leave voters — which includes many marginal seats — puts the likeliest single outcome with the Conservatives on 374 seats (a majority of 98) with an 80 per cent probability of a seat total between 329 and 412 and a more than a 90 per cent probability of an overall majority.
Labour can expect to be between 168 and 246 seats, and the odds are finely balanced as to whether the party can stay above the psychologically important 200-seat mark.
The Lib Dems may gain some seats and lose others, to end up with a similar number of MPs to 2015, and on a good night might hope double that tally. The result in Scotland is particularly uncertain due to the paucity of polling there but, the Scottish National party is likely to lose anywhere from five to 20 seats."
Con 44 (-3) Lab 34 (-1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (+1) Greens 2 (+1)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-poll-latest-tory-win-results-corbyn-theresa-may-a7777781.html
Con 44.3%
Lab 32.2%
Con 371
Lab 199
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
But I am inherently incapable of predicting a Tory landslide. That Labour range of 168-246 is very very wide though, considering he says the odds are 'finely balanced' as to if they can even get over 200.
5-20 SNP losses? I'd take 10, but hope for more.
The other surprise, for me, is the amount of tactical voting that's going on; and that's why I'm slightly bullish about the Lib Dems' prospects in the more affluent, Europhile seats.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-poll-latest-tory-win-results-corbyn-theresa-may-a7777781.html
OH GOD, NO!!!!
I'd been looking forward to that for weeks. Bloody election. Dammit.
https://twitter.com/jimdofficial/status/872478730064715781
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ec-8A5k16Ak
Surely a revision to their sample isn't going to show a major change...