It is simply absurd for the Prime Minister to stay in office. [snipped for space]
poor old Sarah Olney.
One of the oddest looking people I have ever seen. if Zac Goldsmith can get over himself he is cabinet material surely?
May's non-reshuffle was understandable for now, but sometime soon surely teh Tories need to bring in a lot of younger blood, break with teh past
Rory Stewart, Zac, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt, there must be loads of them
Agree, younger faces need to be brought to the front, surprised Rory Stewart is not already there in fact, Mercer and Penny Mordaunt would be good additions, but Zac Goldsmith is too flighty imo.
On the DUP - and I'll admit I have little sense of what goes on in their heads - could the line 'It's me or Corbyn' have been enough to get their support? Or would the DUP support Corbyn for a billion pounds?
Go back to the country now with a better leader who runs a normal campaign and they would get a clear majority.
Every day they persist with May and her quite frankly weird approach to politics increases the chances of the far left winning the next election. Decision time for the Tory party.
If we go back to the country now we'll be almost a year into the Article 50 process with absolutely no idea what the heck we're going to do.
A new leader and a more consensual approach to Brexit is needed, but another GE would be catastrophic at this moment in time. Have it in 2019/2020 when Brexit is over.
Looks unlikely to me that they will have the votes to get Brexit through parliament.
On the DUP - and I'll admit I have little sense of what goes on in their heads - could the line 'It's me or Corbyn' have been enough to get their support? Or would the DUP support Corbyn for a billion pounds?
On the DUP supporting Corbyn - that's a QTWTAIN. Never in a million years.
On the DUP - and I'll admit I have little sense of what goes on in their heads - could the line 'It's me or Corbyn' have been enough to get their support? Or would the DUP support Corbyn for a billion pounds?
Go back to the country now with a better leader who runs a normal campaign and they would get a clear majority.
Every day they persist with May and her quite frankly weird approach to politics increases the chances of the far left winning the next election. Decision time for the Tory party.
If we go back to the country now we'll be almost a year into the Article 50 process with absolutely no idea what the heck we're going to do.
A new leader and a more consensual approach to Brexit is needed, but another GE would be catastrophic at this moment in time. Have it in 2019/2020 when Brexit is over.
Looks unlikely to me that they will have the votes to get Brexit through parliament.
Go back to the country now with a better leader who runs a normal campaign and they would get a clear majority.
Every day they persist with May and her quite frankly weird approach to politics increases the chances of the far left winning the next election. Decision time for the Tory party.
If we go back to the country now we'll be almost a year into the Article 50 process with absolutely no idea what the heck we're going to do.
A new leader and a more consensual approach to Brexit is needed, but another GE would be catastrophic at this moment in time. Have it in 2019/2020 when Brexit is over.
Looks unlikely to me that they will have the votes to get Brexit through parliament.
That's why we had an election: in order to give May enough backbench ballast to get Brexit through.
Interesting that Scott P talks about popcorn. Osborne seems to have had a smug grin on his face as wide as the Thames. TSE got very shirty with me on Thursday when I deigned to criticise the Cameroons. Are the Tories ready for some internal warfare similar to post-1990?
The comparison seems absurd though. Unlike Cameron, Thatcher was, it pains me to say, a great Tory leader if not in my view a great Prime minister. She was also knifed in the back by her own party. Betrayal has a ring of truth to it. But Cameron? He chose of his own free will to hold a referendum on EU membership because he was worried that the rise of Ukip would lose him the 2015 election to Ed Miliband. He then fought the referendum in his own way and lost it. He had no-one to blame but himself. As William Hague put it Europe was an unexploded bomb in the Conservative party. Dave wasn't knifed by anyone but hoist by his own petard. A fitting end to the casual prime minister who thought no panic too big that it couldn't be dealt with by a solid essay at the last minute. The sense of grievance is absurd when the explanation for his demise lies in the man himself.
As someone who has little time for either the Tory modernisers or the traditionalists I'd quite enjoy the whole spectacle myself if we weren't all in such a precarious political position.
Exactly. I don't understand why Cameron commands such blind loyalty when his refusal to step up and deal with the consequences of his referendum bribe to UKIP and and to Tory eurosceptics set it on this disastrous course. Why is he absolved of all responsibility?
On the DUP - and I'll admit I have little sense of what goes on in their heads - could the line 'It's me or Corbyn' have been enough to get their support? Or would the DUP support Corbyn for a billion pounds?
On the DUP supporting Corbyn - that's a QTWTAIN. Never in a million years.
So why can't may stiffen the sinews and try this approach?
The Nationalists have secured the lowest share of the vote for a winning party in Scotland since 1983, the lowest seat tally for the first-placed party since at least 1955. Alex Salmond, who spectacularly lost Gordon to the Tories, presented on television like an East European strongman in the final days of communism. Ashen-faced, hair frazzled, eyes darting to check for rebels storming the windows of the presidential palace, the former First Minister gave living portrait to the nightmare the SNP was suffering.
Having five bellies and six pensions Eck pontificating on LBC instead of doing the job he was elected to do must have been too much for the good folk of Gordon.
* [1] "I wish to politely point out that if this poll is correct, I have won £50 on my £450@1/9 Con most seats." * [2] "Well in 2015 they predicted Con 316, Con ended up on 331 So assuming the same error range, that gives Con range now of 298-329, yes?" * [3] "Listen to this because it's important. An exit poll is not perfect and there is wriggle room. It might result in less seats for Con, Labour most seats, or a Con maj. We don't know yet. So dinna fash yersel just yet." * [4] "We need to define "rubbish" and "almost spot on". If the exit poll under estimates CON by the same margin as last time, then we're back to a small Con maj at approx 330." * [5] "Rich people can afford to be dumb. We have to graft for our supper. Does your bet come good with a small Con maj? That's still possible." * [6] "Kellnermathics. Ir's non-Euclidean" * [7] "Hypothesis. After all this kerfuffle, the net seat change on 2015 is...very little?" * [8] "But right now we're wibbling at the margin. The outcomes are a) small Con overall majority, b) Con plurality, or c) there is no option c."
Zoomer's claiming catastrophic losses as a "win" are my favourite kind
Although Alex Salmond losing his seat is undoubtedly a win for everybody.
And the achingly funny cartoon doesn't mention the one vote on Indy that mattered.
Oh...
Easteross, formerly of this parish was spot on in his prediction, just the wrong GE tis all.
Easteross was indeed spot on with his Scottish predictions. Apart from Labour & Libdem GE seat bands, I restricted my GE betting to Scottish constituency seats and as a result I had by far my best election result despite the disaster that was the eventual overall GE result. Still very disappointed that the Scottish Conservatives did not take Perth and NP, Edinburgh SW or Argyll and Bute. Glad I piled on early in Banff and Buchan and in Angus, two seats that were definitely going to go Conservative if we were to unseat big SNP names like Robertson or Salmond in Moray and Gordon.
* [a] "Oddschecker is down IGIndex is down SPIN is still ip PaddyP is still up Spreadex still up You can still buy Con most seats at 93 on Spin if you're interested." * [b] "Con seat spreads on PaddyPower 5/6 on over 312.5. It's going fast if you want it." * [c] "Oddschecker gone. IGIndex gone. Paddypower gone. SPIN still up. Spreadex still up. You can still buy Con at 318 on Spin."
Get rid if Theresa. Get a new leader. Another election in the Autumn.
They can't seriously be thinking of a formal coalition with DUP.
Michael Fallon would be quite a good PM. He is very reassuring I find. I do think that Nick Timothy resigning is the right thing but May is holed beneath the waterline IMO. How on earth can she negotiate on behalf the British people. The People have just said that they have no confidence in her ability to navigate Brexit. So I think May has to instigate a leadership election to replace her and carry on as caretaker for the short time between the leadership election and the winner taking over. The Brexit negotiations need to be put on hold.
May has got to stop this. A formal coalition guarantees Corbyn as PM in 2022 because all Corbyn+extremist attacks will fall flat.
Corbyn will not contest the next GE if it is in 2022. But if he gets a good successor...
Surely if Corbyn goes by 2022 then it can't be McDonnell either, he will be 70 by then. They will have to pick someone like Angela Rayner, but will the youth and remainers be as committed to turning out for her?
That's why it would make sense for the Tories to hold on till then
Ironically, the Prime Minister is the one political leader who understands this division...
...modern campaigning techniques require ever-narrower targeting of specific voters, and we were not talking to the people who decided to vote for Labour.
Ironically, the Prime Minister is the one political leader who understands this division...
...modern campaigning techniques require ever-narrower targeting of specific voters, and we were not talking to the people who decided to vote for Labour.
In particular, I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care. But I would like to make clear that the bizarre media reports about my own role in the policy’s inclusion are wrong: it had been the subject of many months of work within Whitehall, and it was not my personal pet project. I chose not to rebut these reports as they were published, as to have done so would have been a distraction for the campaign.
Interesting that Scott P talks about popcorn. Osborne seems to have had a smug grin on his face as wide as the Thames. TSE got very shirty with me on Thursday when I deigned to criticise the Cameroons. Are the Tories ready for some internal warfare similar to post-1990?
The comparison seems absurd though. Unlike Cameron, Thatcher was, it pains me to say, a great Tory leader if not in my view a great Prime minister. She was also knifed in the back by her own party. Betrayal has a ring of truth to it. But Cameron? He chose of his own free will to hold a referendum on EU membership because he was worried that the rise of Ukip would lose him the 2015 election to Ed Miliband. He then fought the referendum in his own way and lost it. He had no-one to blame but himself. As William Hague put it Europe was an unexploded bomb in the Conservative party. Dave wasn't knifed by anyone but hoist by his own petard. A fitting end to the casual prime minister who thought no panic too big that it couldn't be dealt with by a solid essay at the last minute. The sense of grievance is absurd when the explanation for his demise lies in the man himself.
As someone who has little time for either the Tory modernisers or the traditionalists I'd quite enjoy the whole spectacle myself if we weren't all in such a precarious political position.
Exactly. I don't understand why Cameron commands such blind loyalty when his refusal to step up and deal with the consequences of his referendum bribe to UKIP and and to Tory eurosceptics set it on this disastrous course. Why is he absolved of all responsibility?
Would Cameron have lost Canterbury or Battersea or Kensington?
I take responsibility for my part in this election campaign, which was the oversight of our policy programme. In particular, I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care.
But I would like to make clear that the bizarre media reports about my own role in the policy’s inclusion are wrong: it had been the subject of many months of work within Whitehall, and it was not my personal pet project. I chose not to rebut these reports as they were published, as to have done so would have been a distraction for the campaign.
But I take responsibility for the content of the whole manifesto, which I continue to believe is an honest and strong programme for government.
While that is welcome news, it should be the PM who is resigning. She has catastrophically failed the test she set for herself. She obviously has a hide like an elephant but the political skill of a donkey. Anyone in the cabinet has to be a better communicator than her poor track record in office.
I take responsibility for my part in this election campaign, which was the oversight of our policy programme. In particular, I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care.
But I would like to make clear that the bizarre media reports about my own role in the policy’s inclusion are wrong: it had been the subject of many months of work within Whitehall, and it was not my personal pet project. I chose not to rebut these reports as they were published, as to have done so would have been a distraction for the campaign.
But I take responsibility for the content of the whole manifesto, which I continue to believe is an honest and strong programme for government.
Interesting that Scott P talks about popcorn. Osborne seems to have had a smug grin on his face as wide as the Thames. TSE got very shirty with me on Thursday when I deigned to criticise the Cameroons. Are the Tories ready for some internal warfare similar to post-1990?
The comparison seems absurd though. Unlike Cameron, Thatcher was, it pains me to say, a great Tory leader if not in my view a great Prime minister. She was also knifed in the back by her own party. Betrayal has a ring of truth to it. But Cameron? He chose of his own free will to hold a referendum on EU membership because he was worried that the rise of Ukip would lose him the 2015 election to Ed Miliband. He then fought the referendum in his own way and lost it. He had no-one to blame but himself. As William Hague put it Europe was an unexploded bomb in the Conservative party. Dave wasn't knifed by anyone but hoist by his own petard. A fitting end to the casual prime minister who thought no panic too big that it couldn't be dealt with by a solid essay at the last minute. The sense of grievance is absurd when the explanation for his demise lies in the man himself.
As someone who has little time for either the Tory modernisers or the traditionalists I'd quite enjoy the whole spectacle myself if we weren't all in such a precarious political position.
Exactly. I don't understand why Cameron commands such blind loyalty when his refusal to step up and deal with the consequences of his referendum bribe to UKIP and and to Tory eurosceptics set it on this disastrous course. Why is he absolved of all responsibility?
Would Cameron have lost Canterbury or Battersea or Kensington?
I am surprised somebody Kwasi Kwarteng hasn't been promoted. Despite backing leave, he would definitely be able to work areas like that.
Following my usual practice, I wish to record here that Friday I picked up my £500 returns from Betfred after only a brief telephone check (I placed the bet in one branch and picked up the winnings in another). This represents a profit of £50 on a bet of £450@1/9 on Con most seats.
My record on political betting is still 100%. I have placed bets on the 2012 London Mayorality, the 2012 French Presidential, the 2016 Potus, the 2016 Brexit ref, the 2016 London Mayorality, the 2017 French Presidential and the 2017 UK GE. I did not place a bet on 2015 UK GE, thank goodness.
I assume regression to the mean will take place at some point, but until then please forgive me if I enjoy the moment: it is not often I am successful and I wish to retain the memory for future times.
Get rid if Theresa. Get a new leader. Another election in the Autumn.
They can't seriously be thinking of a formal coalition with DUP.
Michael Fallon would be quite a good PM. He is very reassuring I find. I do think that Nick Timothy resigning is the right thing but May is holed beneath the waterline IMO. How on earth can she negotiate on behalf the British people. The People have just said that they have no confidence in her ability to navigate Brexit. So I think May has to instigate a leadership election to replace her and carry on as caretaker for the short time between the leadership election and the winner taking over. The Brexit negotiations need to be put on hold.
Fallon? He tripped over his tongue every time he opened his mouth!
Interesting that Scott P talks about popcorn. Osborne seems to have had a smug grin on his face as wide as the Thames. TSE got very shirty with me on Thursday when I deigned to criticise the Cameroons. Are the Tories ready for some internal warfare similar to post-1990?
The comparison seems absurd though. Unlike Cameron, Thatcher was, it pains me to say, a great Tory leader if not in my view a great Prime minister. She was also knifed in the back by her own party. Betrayal has a ring of truth to it. But Cameron? He chose of his own free will to hold a referendum on EU membership because he was worried that the rise of Ukip would lose him the 2015 election to Ed Miliband. He then fought the referendum in his own way and lost it. He had no-one to blame but himself. As William Hague put it Europe was an unexploded bomb in the Conservative party. Dave wasn't knifed by anyone but hoist by his own petard. A fitting end to the casual prime minister who thought no panic too big that it couldn't be dealt with by a solid essay at the last minute. The sense of grievance is absurd when the explanation for his demise lies in the man himself.
As someone who has little time for either the Tory modernisers or the traditionalists I'd quite enjoy the whole spectacle myself if we weren't all in such a precarious political position.
Exactly. I don't understand why Cameron commands such blind loyalty when his refusal to step up and deal with the consequences of his referendum bribe to UKIP and and to Tory eurosceptics set it on this disastrous course. Why is he absolved of all responsibility?
Would Cameron have lost Canterbury or Battersea or Kensington?
13 seats in Scotland?
Davidson deserves credit for that but in May she had someone she could do business with.
Interesting that Scott P talks about popcorn. Osborne seems to have had a smug grin on his face as wide as the Thames. TSE got very shirty with me on Thursday when I deigned to criticise the Cameroons. Are the Tories ready for some internal warfare similar to post-1990?
The comparison seems absurd though. Unlike Cameron, Thatcher was, it pains me to say, a great Tory leader if not in my view a great Prime minister. She was also knifed in the back by her own party. Betrayal has a ring of truth to it. But Cameron? He chose of his own free will to hold a referendum on EU membership because he was worried that the rise of Ukip would lose him the 2015 election to Ed Miliband. He then fought the referendum in his own way and lost it. He had no-one to blame but himself. As William Hague put it Europe was an unexploded bomb in the Conservative party. Dave wasn't knifed by anyone but hoist by his own petard. A fitting end to the casual prime minister who thought no panic too big that it couldn't be dealt with by a solid essay at the last minute. The sense of grievance is absurd when the explanation for his demise lies in the man himself.
As someone who has little time for either the Tory modernisers or the traditionalists I'd quite enjoy the whole spectacle myself if we weren't all in such a precarious political position.
Exactly. I don't understand why Cameron commands such blind loyalty when his refusal to step up and deal with the consequences of his referendum bribe to UKIP and and to Tory eurosceptics set it on this disastrous course. Why is he absolved of all responsibility?
Would Cameron have lost Canterbury or Battersea or Kensington?
I am surprised somebody Kwasi Kwarteng hasn't been promoted. He would definitely be able to work areas like that.
Yep. The Tories need to think long and hard. As it stands post Brexit they'll their Northern gains back to Lab in 2022, not so sure about regaining their losses
"Theresa May used this General Election to try to turn the Tory party into the standard bearers of Brexit, with the aim of wiping out Ukip, despite being a Remain supporter when the crunch came last year. What she misread is that many Ukip voters had come across from Labour. They wanted to hear more than just Brexit, they wanted a message of change. Something that the “strong and stable” line simply didn’t deliver upon in any way. Once Jeremy Corbyn had said he would leave the EU and that free movement of people would come to an end, he began to be seen as an equal option to Mrs May.
Mrs May lost the ensuing personality contest. Frankly, she was useless."
Interesting that Scott P talks about popcorn. Osborne seems to have had a smug grin on his face as wide as the Thames. TSE got very shirty with me on Thursday when I deigned to criticise the Cameroons. Are the Tories ready for some internal warfare similar to post-1990?
The comparison seems absurd though. Unlike Cameron, Thatcher was, it pains me to say, a great Tory leader if not in my view a great Prime minister. She was also knifed in the back by her own party. Betrayal has a ring of truth to it. But Cameron? He chose of his own free will to hold a referendum on EU membership because he was worried that the rise of Ukip would lose him the 2015 election to Ed Miliband. He then fought the referendum in his own way and lost it. He had no-one to blame but himself. As William Hague put it Europe was an unexploded bomb in the Conservative party. Dave wasn't knifed by anyone but hoist by his own petard. A fitting end to the casual prime minister who thought no panic too big that it couldn't be dealt with by a solid essay at the last minute. The sense of grievance is absurd when the explanation for his demise lies in the man himself.
As someone who has little time for either the Tory modernisers or the traditionalists I'd quite enjoy the whole spectacle myself if we weren't all in such a precarious political position.
Exactly. I don't understand why Cameron commands such blind loyalty when his refusal to step up and deal with the consequences of his referendum bribe to UKIP and and to Tory eurosceptics set it on this disastrous course. Why is he absolved of all responsibility?
Would Cameron have lost Canterbury or Battersea or Kensington?
Would we have had an election in the first place in which these seats were even up for grabs?
Why don't Cameron's fans feel let down by his decision to resign? Whenever anyone asks this question it just gets met with deflection and whataboutery.
Zoomer's claiming catastrophic losses as a "win" are my favourite kind
Although Alex Salmond losing his seat is undoubtedly a win for everybody.
And the achingly funny cartoon doesn't mention the one vote on Indy that mattered.
Oh...
Easteross, formerly of this parish was spot on in his prediction, just the wrong GE tis all.
Easteross was indeed spot on with his Scottish predictions. Apart from Labour & Libdem GE seat bands, I restricted my GE betting to Scottish constituency seats and as a result I had by far my best election result despite the disaster that was the eventual overall GE result. Still very disappointed that the Scottish Conservatives did not take Perth and NP, Edinburgh SW or Argyll and Bute. Glad I piled on early in Banff and Buchan and in Angus, two seats that were definitely going to go Conservative if we were to unseat big SNP names like Robertson or Salmond in Moray and Gordon.
Hi Fitalass, hope the family is all well?
My final bet of the GE was inspired by Mr Meeks’ 'Scottish thread', with a little encouragement from Dr Fox for SNP to go sub 40 – I probably owe them a cut of the profits, what’s 68p divided by 3
Ironically, the Prime Minister is the one political leader who understands this division...
...modern campaigning techniques require ever-narrower targeting of specific voters, and we were not talking to the people who decided to vote for Labour.
In particular, I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care. But I would like to make clear that the bizarre media reports about my own role in the policy’s inclusion are wrong: it had been the subject of many months of work within Whitehall, and it was not my personal pet project. I chose not to rebut these reports as they were published, as to have done so would have been a distraction for the campaign.
If this had been worked on for months why were they so unaware of the public's ignorance regarding current funding arrangements.
Interesting that Scott P talks about popcorn. Osborne seems to have had a smug grin on his face as wide as the Thames. TSE got very shirty with me on Thursday when I deigned to criticise the Cameroons. Are the Tories ready for some internal warfare similar to post-1990?
The comparison seems absurd though. Unlike Cameron, Thatcher was, it pains me to say, a great Tory leader if not in my view a great Prime minister. She was also knifed in the back by her own party. Betrayal has a ring of truth to it. But Cameron? He chose of his own free will to hold a referendum on EU membership because he was worried that the rise of Ukip would lose him the 2015 election to Ed Miliband. He then fought the referendum in his own way and lost it. He had no-one to blame but himself. As William Hague put it Europe was an unexploded bomb in the Conservative party. Dave wasn't knifed by anyone but hoist by his own petard. A fitting end to the casual prime minister who thought no panic too big that it couldn't be dealt with by a solid essay at the last minute. The sense of grievance is absurd when the explanation for his demise lies in the man himself.
As someone who has little time for either the Tory modernisers or the traditionalists I'd quite enjoy the whole spectacle myself if we weren't all in such a precarious political position.
Exactly. I don't understand why Cameron commands such blind loyalty when his refusal to step up and deal with the consequences of his referendum bribe to UKIP and and to Tory eurosceptics set it on this disastrous course. Why is he absolved of all responsibility?
Would Cameron have lost Canterbury or Battersea or Kensington?
Would we have had an election in the first place in which these seats were even up for grabs?
Why don't Cameron's fans feel let down by his decision to resign? Whenever anyone asks this question it just gets met with deflection and whataboutery.
It's a question of honour. He campaigned for Remain and felt that excluded him from decisions about Brexit post referendum. A marked change from his successor
* actively recruiting the unengaged * weighting by political engagement
I don't know if it works or if they are doing it right. But they are doing it isam said: I didn't know that when I wrote the post. It would be interesting to know what they [YouGov] are doing to reach the unengaged and/or if they are able to do it viewcode • Posts: 3,901 June 4 I think you'll find the answer in these links, tho' I haven't had time to read thru them
Stockton South is a more prosperous seat than Middlesbrough South but the Tories managed to lose a 5,000 majority whilst gaining MS with some ease. The UKIP vote in adjacent seats went in very different directions, but why?
In Stockton South James Wharton increased his vote - but not by much. We haven't seen the detailed data yet but my suspicion is that he took on a decent chunk of the 5k UKIP votes, but at the same time lost thousands of his own votes from 2015.
Issues in Stockton South. Lack of police - cuts recognised as the problem. No affordable homes yet swathes of unwanted executive development no-one can stop - Tory planning laws recognised as problem. Poor NHS services - Wharton ran on platform of saving North Tees in 2015, then claimed it was saved, then had to campaign in 2017 that he would save it as its under threat - due to widely recognised cuts he voted for. Local services - Wharton stuck his nose into Stockton council repeatedly, and the ruling Labour group successfully hung blame for the cuts on him voting to take 100% of their government grant away.
So UKIP or not, a combination of some Con > Lab switching and thousands of non-voters coming out for Labour did him in. His decision not to bother campaigning until the last week (a parody of his "here all year round not just at election time" slogan) was the final insult.
It is simply absurd for the Prime Minister to stay in office.
Her reputation and authority have gone. The Tories should hold a leadership election now, elect David Davies who at least looks like a Prime Minister.He should make it clear that he will negotiate Brexit and in two years time place the results before the people in an election.That should take the pressure/scheming off moves for the early poll.
He should take this opportunity to make an generous offer to the Scots from a position of relative strength, guarantee the Irish border issue and offer something to the Welsh. He should make it clear that the deal with the DUP is for Brexit only and will last only that long.He should offer the English some real consittutional reform - new Bill of Rights , PR elected House of Lords etc.
His brand of liberal conservatism might just hit the mark of the modern world and be a reasonable answer to Corbyn idealism.
If the Tories don't act now then there shall be an election by the Autumn and Jeremy will become Prime Minister.
Amongst many possible threads, I suggest the circumstances as to how/when the next GE will be called is a key one.
The Fixed Term Parliament Act will not be repealed now I imagine and it's hard to see a chunk of the Tory party wanting another election - especially those on wafer thin majorities (lots of them) or who've waited for ages in Scotland to get a decent headcount.
I feel a lot of symapthy for people like Tania Mathias - surely by 2020, Vince would have been too old to stand against her and yet now she's out after just 2 years and he's back.
Flick Drummond, a remainer, is out too in Pompey South after just 2 years...
Mind you, poor old Sarah Olney.
The number of Labour voters in Richmond park were 5,773 (compared with 1,515 in the by election). If just 1% of Labour voters had voted tactically then Sarah would still be an MP, Zac would still be in the wilderness and the the Tories would have a notional majority of just one with DUP support.
Let's hope those 5,773 Labour voters have learned a lesson. It shows that Richmond Park is very winnable for the LibDems when the next election comes.
On the DUP - and I'll admit I have little sense of what goes on in their heads - could the line 'It's me or Corbyn' have been enough to get their support? Or would the DUP support Corbyn for a billion pounds?
In the small hours of Friday morning DUP said no to Corbyn even before the last 20 seats were declared.
Interesting that Scott P talks about popcorn. Osborne seems to have had a smug grin on his face as wide as the Thames. TSE got very shirty with me on Thursday when I deigned to criticise the Cameroons. Are the Tories ready for some internal warfare similar to post-1990?
The comparison seems absurd though. Unlike Cameron, Thatcher was, it pains me to say, a great Tory leader if not in my view a great Prime minister. She was also knifed in the back by her own party. Betrayal has a ring of truth to it. But Cameron? He chose of his own free will to hold a referendum on EU membership because he was worried that the rise of Ukip would lose him the 2015 election to Ed Miliband. He then fought the referendum in his own way and lost it. He had no-one to blame but himself. As William Hague put it Europe was an unexploded bomb in the Conservative party. Dave wasn't knifed by anyone but hoist by his own petard. A fitting end to the casual prime minister who thought no panic too big that it couldn't be dealt with by a solid essay at the last minute. The sense of grievance is absurd when the explanation for his demise lies in the man himself.
As someone who has little time for either the Tory modernisers or the traditionalists I'd quite enjoy the whole spectacle myself if we weren't all in such a precarious political position.
Exactly. I don't understand why Cameron commands such blind loyalty when his refusal to step up and deal with the consequences of his referendum bribe to UKIP and and to Tory eurosceptics set it on this disastrous course. Why is he absolved of all responsibility?
Would Cameron have lost Canterbury or Battersea or Kensington?
Would Cameron have won Mansfield or Copeland or Walsall North ?
And when Labour offered free student tuition fees the Conservatives were heading up shite creek in middle class urban areas.
Interesting that Scott P talks about popcorn. Osborne seems to have had a smug grin on his face as wide as the Thames. TSE got very shirty with me on Thursday when I deigned to criticise the Cameroons. Are the Tories ready for some internal warfare similar to post-1990?
The comparison seems absurd though. Unlike Cameron, Thatcher was, it pains me to say, a great Tory leader if not in my view a great Prime minister. She was also knifed in the back by her own party. Betrayal has a ring of truth to it. But Cameron? He chose of his own free will to hold a referendum on EU membership because he was worried that the rise of Ukip would lose him the 2015 election to Ed Miliband. He then fought the referendum in his own way and lost it. He had no-one to blame but himself. As William Hague put it Europe was an unexploded bomb in the Conservative party. Dave wasn't knifed by anyone but hoist by his own petard. A fitting end to the casual prime minister who thought no panic too big that it couldn't be dealt with by a solid essay at the last minute. The sense of grievance is absurd when the explanation for his demise lies in the man himself.
As someone who has little time for either the Tory modernisers or the traditionalists I'd quite enjoy the whole spectacle myself if we weren't all in such a precarious political position.
Exactly. I don't understand why Cameron commands such blind loyalty when his refusal to step up and deal with the consequences of his referendum bribe to UKIP and and to Tory eurosceptics set it on this disastrous course. Why is he absolved of all responsibility?
Would Cameron have lost Canterbury or Battersea or Kensington?
Would Cameron have won Mansfield or Copeland or Walsall North ?
And when Labour offered free student tuition fees the Conservatives were heading up shite creek in middle class urban areas.
If there had been a leaders debate Labour promises could have been exposed as unaffordable. But May was too afraid.
Comments
No proper planning and then a panicky U-turn on what was actually a good policy.
After that fuckup I would have expected the manifesto to be properly planned.
They can't seriously be thinking of a formal coalition with DUP.
Oh, wait...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnmIoF_2Q4Y
The grey suits have had a word...
* [1] "I wish to politely point out that if this poll is correct, I have won £50 on my £450@1/9 Con most seats."
* [2] "Well in 2015 they predicted Con 316, Con ended up on 331 So assuming the same error range, that gives Con range now of 298-329, yes?"
* [3] "Listen to this because it's important. An exit poll is not perfect and there is wriggle room. It might result in less seats for Con, Labour most seats, or a Con maj. We don't know yet. So dinna fash yersel just yet."
* [4] "We need to define "rubbish" and "almost spot on". If the exit poll under estimates CON by the same margin as last time, then we're back to a small Con maj at approx 330."
* [5] "Rich people can afford to be dumb. We have to graft for our supper. Does your bet come good with a small Con maj? That's still possible."
* [6] "Kellnermathics. Ir's non-Euclidean"
* [7] "Hypothesis. After all this kerfuffle, the net seat change on 2015 is...very little?"
* [8] "But right now we're wibbling at the margin. The outcomes are a) small Con overall majority, b) Con plurality, or c) there is no option c."
[1] http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1625833#Comment_1625833
[2] http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1625950#Comment_1625950
[3] http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1626034#Comment_1626034
[4] http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1626866#Comment_1626866
[5] http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1626897/#Comment_1626897
[6] http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1627005#Comment_1627005
[7] http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1627655#Comment_1627655
[8] http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1627698#Comment_1627698
I am not the person to whom you addressed the challenge. But I thought it was worth addressing.
* [a] "Oddschecker is down IGIndex is down SPIN is still ip PaddyP is still up Spreadex still up You can still buy Con most seats at 93 on Spin if you're interested."
* [b] "Con seat spreads on PaddyPower 5/6 on over 312.5. It's going fast if you want it."
* [c] "Oddschecker gone. IGIndex gone. Paddypower gone. SPIN still up. Spreadex still up. You can still buy Con at 318 on Spin."
* [a] http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1628220#Comment_1628220
* [b] http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1630331#Comment_1630331
* [c] http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1630981#Comment_1630981
I do think that Nick Timothy resigning is the right thing but May is holed beneath the waterline IMO. How on earth can she negotiate on behalf the British people. The People have just said that they have no confidence in her ability to navigate Brexit. So I think May has to instigate a leadership election to replace her and carry on as caretaker for the short time between the leadership election and the winner taking over. The Brexit negotiations need to be put on hold.
That's why it would make sense for the Tories to hold on till then
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/06/nick-timothy-why-i-have-resigned-as-the-prime-ministers-adviser.html
Ironically, the Prime Minister is the one political leader who understands this division...
...modern campaigning techniques require ever-narrower targeting of specific voters, and we were not talking to the people who decided to vote for Labour.
But I would like to make clear that the bizarre media reports about my own role in the policy’s inclusion are wrong: it had been the subject of many months of work within Whitehall, and it was not my personal pet project. I chose not to rebut these reports as they were published, as to have done so would have been a distraction for the campaign.
But I take responsibility for the content of the whole manifesto, which I continue to believe is an honest and strong programme for government.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/06/nick-timothy-why-i-have-resigned-as-the-prime-ministers-adviser.html
NEW THREAD
My record on political betting is still 100%. I have placed bets on the 2012 London Mayorality, the 2012 French Presidential, the 2016 Potus, the 2016 Brexit ref, the 2016 London Mayorality, the 2017 French Presidential and the 2017 UK GE. I did not place a bet on 2015 UK GE, thank goodness.
I assume regression to the mean will take place at some point, but until then please forgive me if I enjoy the moment: it is not often I am successful and I wish to retain the memory for future times.
Davidson deserves credit for that but in May she had someone she could do business with.
Mrs May lost the ensuing personality contest. Frankly, she was useless."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/useless-theresa-may-has-put-brexit-peril-ukip-may-not-irrelevant/
Why don't Cameron's fans feel let down by his decision to resign? Whenever anyone asks this question it just gets met with deflection and whataboutery.
My final bet of the GE was inspired by Mr Meeks’ 'Scottish thread', with a little encouragement from Dr Fox for SNP to go sub 40 – I probably owe them a cut of the profits, what’s 68p divided by 3
viewcodeviewcode • Posts: 3,901
June 4
@isam
I enjoyed your blog post http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html?m=1 but you need to know that YouGov have since 2015 implemented some of your recommendations, specifically
* actively recruiting the unengaged
* weighting by political engagement
I don't know if it works or if they are doing it right. But they are doing it
isam said:
I didn't know that when I wrote the post. It would be interesting to know what they [YouGov] are doing to reach the unengaged and/or if they are able to do it
viewcode • Posts: 3,901 June 4
I think you'll find the answer in these links, tho' I haven't had time to read thru them
Before 2017
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/07/analysis-what-went-wrong-our-ge15-polling-and-what/
* https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x4ae830iac/YouGov – GE2015 Post Mortem.pdf
* https://www.research-live.com/article/video/interview-with-stephan-shakespeare/id/5000652
2017 GE
* https://www.research-live.com/article/opinion/are-pollsters-ready-for-the-election/id/5021472
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/
2017 GE Model
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougovs-election-model/
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougov-election-model-q/
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/
Stockton South good candidate as well tbf
Let's hope those 5,773 Labour voters have learned a lesson. It shows that Richmond Park is very winnable for the LibDems when the next election comes.
And when Labour offered free student tuition fees the Conservatives were heading up shite creek in middle class urban areas.