Mr. Meeks/Mr. P, are you really pleased that the far left has been emboldened and tightened its grip on Labour?
I said at the time that the Brexit campaign of sweeties for all was a bad idea
That the campaign worked is a tragedy. That the proponents are outraged by other political movements aping the success, is a farce
Laughter is the appropriate response
so youre 21 and a bloke walks up to you and says put a cross in this box and you can have £27k
what would you do ?
Vote Leave?
(sorry, that is actually trolling, and I genuinely apologise. But the parallels between the 2016Leave campaigns and 2017Labour campaigns - ignore experts, assume no downside, unrealistic expectations of gain - need to be drawn, particularly if we have another election soon)
Surprised YouGov's model isn't being discussed more. It was highly accurate and predicted several gains like Canterbury and Kensington that were derided here. Had to be the future of polling.
Where was the attack on the economy? Where was the focus on Labour's policies? Where was the daily press conference pounding the opposition's key figures (Abbott etc)
They bet the farm on Corbyn's past being a killer AND on his being useless on the campaign trail - there was a quite explicit decision to stay off the airwaves and "let him hang himself", even some gloating comments to journos that they were complaining to the BBC that he wasn't getting enough airtime. Quibbling about the manifesto was seen as a distraction from the main job of rubbishing him. The Tory strategists were cheerily cynical about it all and precisely deserve what they got.
True. But it's also why Labour shouldn't be complacent about the next election. E.g. Kensington likely Tory gain & am sure there are others
Yes, with a better leader and no attack on property rights Kensington, Canterbury and a few others will swing back fairly easily.
Canterbury maybe, but London is and will continue to swing for Labour. Tories will be left with a handful of seats around the periphery.
I couldn't believe how close Chipping Barnet was. Even in 97 the majority was 1100. This time 350
Revenge of the Remainers against a prominent Leaver?
Quite possibly. I have 5 constituency boundaries within one mile of where I'm sitting. 2 are now red. The red tide creeping closer.
I feel your pain. Hallam turned Red for the first time ever.
Watching all the Brexiteers furious because they've found that there are other successful forms of crazy populism is very funny.
Is the only joy from the last 48 hours I've experienced.
I ain't over yet. I think this is possibly the new norm. Where Governments winning two elections in a row might become rare, and referendums routinely give the "wrong" answer.
I don't think this is all down to "austerity" or the financial crash either. Politicians and the media have lost control of the message, the top-down approach can no longer work when the internet is the dominant medium. Ideas and movements can more easily rise up, and making logical sense or the sums adding up are not a requirement for success. In future expect the "establishment" to always do worse than expected.
I agree. And the new order has upsides but massive downsides too. Instead of Single election campaigns with arguments being thrashed out in a public, and accountable context, millions of individual campaigns are happening. Fake news is very much a thing.
Where was the attack on the economy? Where was the focus on Labour's policies? Where was the daily press conference pounding the opposition's key figures (Abbott etc)
They bet the farm on Corbyn's past being a killer AND on his being useless on the campaign trail - there was a quite explicit decision to stay off the airwaves and "let him hang himself", even some gloating comments to journos that they were complaining to the BBC that he wasn't getting enough airtime. Quibbling about the manifesto was seen as a distraction from the main job of rubbishing him. The Tory strategists were cheerily cynical about it all and precisely deserve what they got.
True. But it's also why Labour shouldn't be complacent about the next election. E.g. Kensington likely Tory gain & am sure there are others
Yes, with a better leader and no attack on property rights Kensington, Canterbury and a few others will swing back fairly easily.
Canterbury maybe, but London is and will continue to swing for Labour. Tories will be left with a handful of seats around the periphery.
I couldn't believe how close Chipping Barnet was. Even in 97 the majority was 1100. This time 350
Revenge of the Remainers against a prominent Leaver?
Quite possibly. I have 5 constituency boundaries within one mile of where I'm sitting. 2 are now red. The red tide creeping closer.
I feel your pain. Hallam turned Red for the first time ever.
Even Blair never managed that.
Uni fees
my son - whos still at Uni - said it was the high point of the election
It's really good the young are voting on self interest. We wil make Tories out of them yet.
Well yes... And anyway people get more right-wing as they get older. In 50 years most of the millennials voting for Jezza now will be died in the wool Tory voters looking to protect their wealth from taxation etc.
And their grandchildren will be the Labour voters of that era.
In 2010 Lib Dems offered free tuition fees and got student vote
In 2017 Labour offered free tuition fees and got student vote
Offering free stuff wins voter approval - who knew?
so why didnt the Tories do it ?
I have no problem with free university policy, it is just the yuff won't like the BUT in my approach....it won't be anywhere near 50% going to uni, and a significant proportion will be going part time in combination with their work.
Some of the new Labour majorities in London are incredible. Nearly 30,000 in Dulwich and West Norwood. It is a safe seat obviously but there are some lovely and well-heeled parts of that seats (Dulwich Village itself of course but also to a lesser extent areas such as Crystal Palace (some of which is in the seat) which are rather nice places to live these days).
What blew me away was the Labour vote in Truro/Falmouth and Camborne/Redruth. Neither won, but both closeish.
All the more so when the first half dozen results showed it was under-recording the Cons by 6% and over-recording Labour by 6%.
It has to be admitted that the YouGov polling and the exit poll were remarkably precise. They were finding Labour wins where others were rating them as 100% chances for the Cons.
Labour don't need to gain 60 seats to win, just enough to be able to govern with SNP support. All they need for that is to promise another referendum (which they know the SNP will lose)
PB Tories, do you regard May as being much worse than IDS now?
She appears to have no political antennae or self-awareness....
The worst Tory leader in my lifetime was neither IDS or May but William Hague. Hague fought one election and lost by a landslide and got just 31% and 160 or so seats, under IDS the Tories generally polled a little higher than Hague against Blair and May still got 43% of the vote on Thursday and 318 seats. I am a great fan of Hague personally, he is a brilliant speaker and very intelligent but as Tory leader he was a disaster
About 80% of that was down to the Blair Cult though. Between 1995 to 2001 people were just not willing to listen to anything any Tory had to say.
I wonder if UKIP not standing candidates in the North and midlands actually helped Labour and hurt the Tories......
Could well have done. I did think that the assumption that lifelong Labour folk would just vote Tory a bit of a stretch. How I never had the house on Labour in Dagenham I don't know, huge regret. Odds against Labour in Dagenham! Madness
I wonder if UKIP not standing candidates in the North and midlands actually helped Labour and hurt the Tories......
The digging down into these results is going to be fascinating. The UKIP--> Con switch was patchy at best. I think much of it was down to the quality of the respective candidate. For example Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moor View hoovered up 80%+ of the UKIP votes going walkabout. Others got less than a quarter.
Mr. Meeks/Mr. P, are you really pleased that the far left has been emboldened and tightened its grip on Labour?
I said at the time that the Brexit campaign of sweeties for all was a bad idea
That the campaign worked is a tragedy. That the proponents are outraged by other political movements aping the success, is a farce
Laughter is the appropriate response
so youre 21 and a bloke walks up to you and says put a cross in this box and you can have £27k
what would you do ?
Vote Leave?
(sorry, that is actually trolling, and I genuinely apologise. But the parallels between the 2016Leave campaigns and 2017Labour campaigns - ignore experts, assume no downside, unrealistic expectations of gain - need to be drawn, particularly if we have another election soon)
Actually, this election showed that ignoring experts is exactly the right thing to do, given the failure of absolutely everybody to predict anything approximating to the result, with only one exception - which you'd expect to happen by blind chance anyway.
By the way, as someone who does know a bit about European politics - there isn't going to be a problem if we ask to stop the clock on Brexit for a few months. Juncker's sardonic comment that before we discuss an extension to negotiations we need to start them looks unhelpful, but it embodies the fact that they're open to it, and it's SOP for Europe. The European regard us with a mixture of affection, irritation and amusement, but they basically want things to work out, so technical stuff like a delay for N months is easy enough.
Another observation from elsewhere, a party led by a man who believes that immigration is not too high nearly won the popular vote on Thursday.
Less than a year after the referendum.
Ponder on that.
Immigration policy never played are real part in the election though. I doubt many people know what Jezza's take on immigration is, I seemed to remember he once mumbled something vague about it that was disingenuous of his real position.
And of course the Tories made their usual pledge, without any plans and that was it.
Where as the EU referendum it is was one of the major issues.
Corbyn actually said in the campaign he would control free movement thus neutralising the issue even if there was no specific target for reducing immigration unlike the Tories, he could then focus on his anti austerity anti 'dementia tax' message while still winning Remainers in seats where Labour was in a straight fight with the Tories
Yes, the wider PLP pressed for that position and it worked. Regardless of Corbyn, it is what made it into the manifesto. Credit to Keir Starmer.
As a consequence, here is for example what Labour was able to say about Brexit in a leaflet in my constituency (all consistent with the manifesto although generally we chose to play Brexit down):
"The Tories claim the election is about whether Britain leaves the EU - but it's not. Labour accepts the referendum result. Labour will get a deal that preserves the UK's trade and jobs. The Tories offer a chaotic Brexit. They can't get a trade deal as they won't sign up to EU minimum standards of workers' rights, consumer and environmental protection. On EU migration, Labour offers fair rules, balancing new controls with our economic needs. Freedom of movement will end."
Some of the new Labour majorities in London are incredible. Nearly 30,000 in Dulwich and West Norwood. It is a safe seat obviously but there are some lovely and well-heeled parts of that seats (Dulwich Village itself of course but also to a lesser extent areas such as Crystal Palace (some of which is in the seat) which are rather nice places to live these days).
What blew me away was the Labour vote in Truro/Falmouth and Camborne/Redruth. Neither won, but both closeish.
Camborne/Redruth was always a decent long-shot if Labour did well. The unwinding of the lent LibDems vote in the south-west assured Labour of some big advances.
My husband (working in the private sector) took a 20% pay cut in about 2008, just to keep his job (as did everyone else at his firm). I think he has just about got back to where he was, salary wise. His is not a uncommon story. Public sector workers haven't suffered more than the rest of us, they just shout louder about it.
++
Even post-recession in recent years tens of thousands of jobs have been lost in the oil industry. Well paid highly skilled jobs that pay a lot of tax and help to support the communities where they operate from. There has barely been a peep about it in London.
In 2010 Lib Dems offered free tuition fees and got student vote
In 2017 Labour offered free tuition fees and got student vote
Offering free stuff wins voter approval - who knew?
so why didnt the Tories do it ?
Unasked question: why didn't they?
It appears that they have genuinely forgotten how to do the craft of politics. Blair built a machine: use focus groups to test your messages, tailor the manifesto accordingly, ruthless control of your MPs, suck up to the media shamelessly, dress professionally. He killed the opposition so hard it was unchivalrous. Cameron tried to do likewise and had some limited success. May threw the manifesto together with chums, pratted around, missed the debates (a decision so stupid it was actually funny), and spent tens of millions of taxpayers' money losing net thirteen seats.
Some of the new Labour majorities in London are incredible. Nearly 30,000 in Dulwich and West Norwood. It is a safe seat obviously but there are some lovely and well-heeled parts of that seats (Dulwich Village itself of course but also to a lesser extent areas such as Crystal Palace (some of which is in the seat) which are rather nice places to live these days).
The urban middle class have expensive houses and kids expected to go to university.
The Conservatives threatened their inheritances and offered something for their kids.
Or if they're a bit younger they have student debts and can't afford to buy a home. would they be happy with the government ?
Mr. Abode, it's ridiculous. There's no need for the DUP to be involved. The deal should be cancelled.
If they had a vote on abortion limits, the DUP wouldn't even be eligible for it under EVFEL.
The optics are terrible. Years of de-toxification undone.
My god, I'm turning into TSE
My anger is growing not subsiding at Mrs May.
Because of that moron good people like Edward Timpson have been screwed by that failed Turing Test that is Mrs May.
I posted this yesterday. Friend was on the blower from that area spitting feathers about Timpson losing and
Yup, conservatives have been attacking public sector workers for years, despite many of them voting Tory in 2010 and starting out accepting the need for some cuts. They are now at the stage where wanting a pay rise, government that doesn't think they should all aspire to working in the private sector instead, and possibly some of their lost terms and conditions back, far outweighs any interest in geopolitical questions like the future of Trident. "Sod it", they may start to think, "there are enough moderates in the PLP to keep Jezza in check, I want my payrise". And they still have enough votes that the Tories could do with a few of them.
My husband (working in the private sector) took a 20% pay cut in about 2008, just to keep his job (as did everyone else at his firm). I think he has just about got back to where he was, salary wise. His is not a uncommon story. Public sector workers haven't suffered more than the rest of us, they just shout louder about it.
A great many public sector workers accepted the broader need to cut expenditure in 2010 - after all they wrote the bloody plan before the election. The completely unnecessary attacks on things like holiday entitlements, and the general lack of support and feel or derision and abuse, it's what's made them walk away from the conservatives.
Note - almost no public sector worker is where they were, they're still about 20% down. Of course that doesn't apply to the external consultants or outsourcing firms ministers are so fond of. As with the young, the Tories seem hell bent on polling zero amongst certain groups. My guess is that the public sector workers still voting Tory are holding their nose until we're out of the EU. Then.....
The European regard us with a mixture of affection, irritation and amusement, but they basically want things to work out, so technical stuff like a delay for N months is easy enough.
Which is precisely how I think we also view Europe. It's a shame we cannot work something out.
Both main parties need to do a lot of soul-searching.
We've had three elections in a row in which the voters neither wished to give the Conservatives a substantial majority, nor wished to return Labour to office.
Some of the new Labour majorities in London are incredible. Nearly 30,000 in Dulwich and West Norwood. It is a safe seat obviously but there are some lovely and well-heeled parts of that seats (Dulwich Village itself of course but also to a lesser extent areas such as Crystal Palace (some of which is in the seat) which are rather nice places to live these days).
What blew me away was the Labour vote in Truro/Falmouth and Camborne/Redruth. Neither won, but both closeish.
Camborne/Redruth was always a decent long-shot if Labour did well. The unwinding of the lent LibDems vote in the south-west assured Labour of some big advances.
Where was the attack on the economy? Where was the focus on Labour's policies? Where was the daily press conference pounding the opposition's key figures (Abbott etc)
They bet the farm on Corbyn's past being a to was seen as a distraction from the main job of rubbishing him. The Tory strategists were cheerily cynical about it all and precisely deserve what they got.
True. But it's also why Labour shouldn't be complacent about the next election. E.g. Kensington likely Tory gain & am sure there are others
Yes, with a better leader and no attack on property rights Kensington, Canterbury and a few others will swing back fairly easily.
Canterbury maybe, but London is and will continue to swing for Labour. Tories will be left with a handful of seats around the periphery.
I couldn't believe how close Chipping Barnet was. Even in 97 the majority was 1100. This time 350
Revenge of the Remainers against a prominent Leaver?
Quite possibly. I have 5 constituency boundaries within one mile of where I'm sitting. 2 are now red. The red tide creeping closer.
I feel your pain. Hallam turned Red for the first time ever.
Even Blair never managed that.
Uni fees
my son - whos still at Uni - said it was the high point of the election
It's really good the young are voting on self interest. We wil make Tories out of them yet.
Well yes... And anyway people get more right-wing as they get older. In 50 years most of the millennials voting for Jezza now will be died in the wool Tory voters looking to protect their wealth from taxation etc.
And their grandchildren will be the Labour voters of that era.
Was forever thus...
Yes but they may have to experience a Corbyn premiership first and heavy taxes, nationalised industries and union power to become Tories. It is the same in the US where it is younger voters who are most pro Sanders and voted for him over Hillary and in France where the under 30s voted for Melenchon in the 1st round. After all it took experiencing the final Wilson and Callaghan government and the winter of discontent to turn many young people into Thatcherites and it took the Carter administration to turn many young Americans into Reagan voters
“I spoke to far too many people who were supposed to be ‘category one and category two’ strong sup-porters, who were just pissed off, absolutely pissed off, with indyref2 talk. We’re not talking about undecided voters here, we’re talking about our supporters.
“The message that indyref2 is not for now but for later at the end of the Brexit process did not get through at all. We completely failed to communicate that point.
“That was a major failure on our part as a party nationally. Our communication strategy was all over the place in terms of indyref2.”
Looking for silver linings of recent events (there aren't many) but on questions of big strategic issues the Overton Window has shifted on things like renationalisation if critical infrastructure. At least it means the ideological march that 'any private ownership is better than no private ownership' can now be challenged or at least examined without being accused of a socialist stooge. Don't forget that one of the New Deal triumphs was to 'rewire' the US economy by helping under-utilised capital connect to 'new' industries like aerospace. The British are well placed to do this with energy, space, environmental remediation, new materials, genetics and AI.
At the very least ideological free-market extremists and engines of kleptocracy (like The Taxpayer's Alliance) can be put back in their box...
@JamieRoss7: It's honestly not clear now who's more powerful in Scotland between Davidson and Sturgeon. We've got some Game of Thrones shit on our hands.
I wonder if UKIP not standing candidates in the North and midlands actually helped Labour and hurt the Tories......
The digging down into these results is going to be fascinating. The UKIP--> Con switch was patchy at best. I think much of it was down to the quality of the respective candidate. For example Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moor View hoovered up 80%+ of the UKIP votes going walkabout. Others got less than a quarter.
The contrast in the two Plymouth seats is fascinating and is very similar to two adjacent North East seats.
Stockton South is a more prosperous seat than Middlesbrough South but the Tories managed to lose a 5,000 majority whilst gaining MS with some ease. The UKIP vote in adjacent seats went in very different directions, but why?
Yes but they may have to experience a Corbyn premiership first and heavy taxes, nationalised industries and union power to become Tories. It is the same in the US where it is younger voters who are most pro Sanders and voted for him over Hillary and in France where the under 30s voted for Melenchon in the 1st round. After all it took experiencing the final Wilson and Callaghan government and the winter of discontent to turn many young people into Thatcherite and it took the Carter administration to turn many young Americans into Reagan voters
Well I've already said that it's highly likely we'll have to experience a Marxist Corbyn government in the next few years before the bubble bursts on him.
@BBCNormanS: Senior Tories say Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill must be sacked this weekend or leadership challenge on Monday
I'm amazed that it still hasn't happened? Surely Theresa must be furious with them, they've led her to one of the worst defeats suffered by the Tory party since WW2.
PB Tories, do you regard May as being much worse than IDS now?
She appears to have no political antennae or self-awareness....
The worst Tory leader in my lifetime was neither IDS or May but William Hague. Hague fought one election and lost by a landslide and got just 31% and 160 or so seats, under IDS the Tories generally polled a little higher than Hague against Blair and May still got 43% of the vote on Thursday and 318 seats. I am a great fan of Hague personally, he is a brilliant speaker and very intelligent but as Tory leader he was a disaster
About 80% of that was down to the Blair Cult though. Between 1995 to 2001 people were just not willing to listen to anything any Tory had to say.
My husband (working in the private sector) took a 20% pay cut in about 2008, just to keep his job (as did everyone else at his firm). I think he has just about got back to where he was, salary wise. His is not a uncommon story. Public sector workers haven't suffered more than the rest of us, they just shout louder about it.
++
Even post-recession in recent years tens of thousands of jobs have been lost in the oil industry. Well paid highly skilled jobs that pay a lot of tax and help to support the communities where they operate from. There has barely been a peep about it in London.
I've never voted Labour but they really exposed themselves in government.
After whining about Thatcher 'shutting the factories and mines' throughout the 1980s and 1990s Labour did nothing in government while manufacturing employment fell by a million and a half.
And then in 2008-9, while half the people I worked with were made redundant, Labour chose to bail out the bankers and let Goodwin and Applegarth walk away with millions from the taxpayer.
PB Tories, do you regard May as being much worse than IDS now?
She appears to have no political antennae or self-awareness....
The worst Tory leader in my lifetime was neither IDS or May but William Hague. Hague fought one election and lost by a landslide and got just 31% and 160 or so seats, under IDS the Tories generally polled a little higher than Hague against Blair and May still got 43% of the vote on Thursday and 318 seats. I am a great fan of Hague personally, he is a brilliant speaker and very intelligent but as Tory leader he was a disaster
About 80% of that was down to the Blair Cult though. Between 1995 to 2001 people were just not willing to listen to anything any Tory had to say.
Nonetheless having bee a Tory activist in the Blair years we did make a little more progress under IDS and Howard than under Hague, I felt worse in 2001 than I did on Friday
Firstly, Jezza needs to stay for the next 2 or 3 years. We need Strength and Stability during this time of uncertainty with the government, and it would not be right to change leader with the chance of another election in the autumn or next spring.
Secondly, the PLP and wider party needs to come together. This works both ways, with those on the right of the party giving Corbyn credit for what he has achieved and the Corbynites acknowledging that others are not 'Red Tories'.
Thirdly, it is clear that we are now unashamedly a Socialist Party, not Social Democrats, and that is where we should stay in order to keep our 40% and build on it.
Fourthly, we need a shadow cabinet that includes three strands:
* Current members who had a good campaign, such as Thornberry and Gardner * Big beasts currently on the back benches, such as Cooper and Benn * Potential future leaders, who can prove themselves over the next couple of years then be ready to take over from Jezza. Clive Lewis plus ??? from the soft - left. They need to have the popularity and personality of Corbyn without the baggage that lost us some voters.
Anyway, that's my two-peneth.
Add to that a further expansion of their successful ground game to ensure even more young people and dispossessed are on the electoral register and get them out on polling day.
Another thing they should learn from this election and the Tory 'dementia tax' is that inheritance tax is a big vote-loser. Leave things as they are! The perception is that government is stealing from one's children.
I accept Labour's vote was probably higher with Corbyn than it would have been with a mainstream leader, but for left-leaning voters of a certain age his toxicity was very off putting. When Hamas and the IRA were killing children, Corbyn sympathising with their cause, even in the name of future peace is unforgivable to many.
@BBCNormanS: Senior Tories say Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill must be sacked this weekend or leadership challenge on Monday
I'm amazed that it still hasn't happened? Surely Theresa must be furious with them, they've led her to one of the worst defeats suffered by the Tory party since WW2.
I hope they stay - means we'll get a leadership challenge and can kick her out
Another observation from elsewhere, a party led by a man who believes that immigration is not too high nearly won the popular vote on Thursday.
Less than a year after the referendum.
Ponder on that.
Immigration policy never played are real part in the election though. I doubt many people know what Jezza's take on immigration is, I seemed to remember he once mumbled something vague about it that was disingenuous of his real position.
And of course the Tories made their usual pledge, without any plans and that was it.
Where as the EU referendum it is was one of the major issues.
Corbyn actually said in the campaign he would control free movement thus neutralising the issue even if there was no specific target for reducing immigration unlike the Tories, he could then focus on his anti austerity anti 'dementia tax' message while still winning Remainers in seats where Labour was in a straight fight with the Tories
Yes, the wider PLP pressed for that position and it worked. Regardless of Corbyn, it is what made it into the manifesto. Credit to Keir Starmer.
As a consequence, here is for example what Labour was able to say about Brexit in a leaflet in my constituency (all consistent with the manifesto although generally we chose to play Brexit down):
"The Tories claim the election is about whether Britain leaves the EU - but it's not. Labour accepts the referendum result. Labour will get a deal that preserves the UK's trade and jobs. The Tories offer a chaotic Brexit. They can't get a trade deal as they won't sign up to EU minimum standards of workers' rights, consumer and environmental protection. On EU migration, Labour offers fair rules, balancing new controls with our economic needs. Freedom of movement will end."
Yes ironically Labour played Brexit better than the LDs
PB Tories, do you regard May as being much worse than IDS now?
She appears to have no political antennae or self-awareness....
The worst Tory leader in my lifetime was neither IDS or May but William Hague. Hague fought one election and lost by a landslide and got just 31% and 160 or so seats, under IDS the Tories generally polled a little higher than Hague against Blair and May still got 43% of the vote on Thursday and 318 seats. I am a great fan of Hague personally, he is a brilliant speaker and very intelligent but as Tory leader he was a disaster
About 80% of that was down to the Blair Cult though. Between 1995 to 2001 people were just not willing to listen to anything any Tory had to say.
And Hague helped keep us out of the Euro.
He also stopped the party from splitting after 1997 and began its recovery in local government.
Is it that suprising Labour>UKIP voters quite like an Old Labour leader and manifesto. Obviously we are looking at this through rose -tinted glasses. This is also an anti-establishment mood out there, and we were all saying it was strange the Tories were doing so well.
PB Tories, do you regard May as being much worse than IDS now?
She appears to have no political antennae or self-awareness....
The worst Tory leader in my lifetime was neither IDS or May but William Hague. Hague fought one election and lost by a landslide and got just 31% and 160 or so seats, under IDS the Tories generally polled a little higher than Hague against Blair and May still got 43% of the vote on Thursday and 318 seats. I am a great fan of Hague personally, he is a brilliant speaker and very intelligent but as Tory leader he was a disaster
About 80% of that was down to the Blair Cult though. Between 1995 to 2001 people were just not willing to listen to anything any Tory had to say.
Nonetheless having bee a Tory activist in the Blair years we did make a little more progress under IDS and Howard than under Hague, I felt worse in 2001 than I did on Friday
And you should feel much better. The party has just about twice as many seats as 2001 and many millions of more votes. Thursday was a disaster but a disaster in relative terms to where the party thought it was going to be.
That shouldn't be cause for complacency of course.
And yet between 2230 and midnight PB was full of posts saying the exit poll was not credible and obviously wrong. People never learn...
As Peter Kellner, the rock star-god of polling, was saying the exit poll was not credible, those posters were in good company.
You do of course have a perfect right to snipe at those who got it wrong, though, because you said *at the time* that you had confidence in the exit poll, in a post you are about to link to. Congratulations.
The British are well placed to do this with energy, space, environmental remediation, new materials, genetics and AI.
I'd be supportive of investment like that, with some limits and the demand that investments on average produce returns. Spending in itself is not an investment. Spending £66 billion on the water companies for no reason other than to reverse "Thatcherism" is properly bonkers.
Corbyn may be channelling something but his actual ideas are 40 years or more out of date. It's not progressive or radical to repeat the mistakes of the past. I think a patriotic forward-looking Labour leader who offered EFTA would have be an easy winner of the election.
My husband (working in the private sector) took a 20% pay cut in about 2008, just to keep his job (as did everyone else at his firm). I think he has just about got back to where he was, salary wise. His is not a uncommon story. Public sector workers haven't suffered more than the rest of us, they just shout louder about it.
++
Even post-recession in recent years tens of thousands of jobs have been lost in the oil industry. Well paid highly skilled jobs that pay a lot of tax and help to support the communities where they operate from. There has barely been a peep about it in London.
I've never voted Labour but they really exposed themselves in government.
After whining about Thatcher 'shutting the factories and mines' throughout the 1980s and 1990s Labour did nothing in government while manufacturing employment fell by a million and a half.
And then in 2008-9, while half the people I worked with were made redundant, Labour chose to bail out the bankers and let Goodwin and Applegarth walk away with millions from the taxpayer.
I wonder if UKIP not standing candidates in the North and midlands actually helped Labour and hurt the Tories......
The digging down into these results is going to be fascinating. The UKIP--> Con switch was patchy at best. I think much of it was down to the quality of the respective candidate. For example Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moor View hoovered up 80%+ of the UKIP votes going walkabout. Others got less than a quarter.
Then a snap election was a bad idea because the local Tory associations didn't have enough time to select the best candidates, and May was trying to even control this.
I wonder if UKIP not standing candidates in the North and midlands actually helped Labour and hurt the Tories......
The digging down into these results is going to be fascinating. The UKIP--> Con switch was patchy at best. I think much of it was down to the quality of the respective candidate. For example Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moor View hoovered up 80%+ of the UKIP votes going walkabout. Others got less than a quarter.
The contrast in the two Plymouth seats is fascinating and is very similar to two adjacent North East seats.
Stockton South is a more prosperous seat than Middlesbrough South but the Tories managed to lose a 5,000 majority whilst gaining MS with some ease. The UKIP vote in adjacent seats went in very different directions, but why?
The Tories hoovered up C2Ds in this election but lost BC1s. Remarkable for the party of aspiration.
Early days, but has anyone seen a complete list of constituency results (ordered by majority)? Would be great to see the targets seats for the next election. Thanks.
In 2010 Lib Dems offered free tuition fees and got student vote
In 2017 Labour offered free tuition fees and got student vote
Offering free stuff wins voter approval - who knew?
so why didnt the Tories do it ?
Unaffordable with current percentage of people going to Uni.
Funding for higher education, health and social all need detailed analysis and sensible non-partisan discussion. That will never happen, of course, so instead we will continue to get unrealistic bribes, gimmicks and back-of-fag-packet policies.
People with knowledge of health economics, experience in education and other useful areas of expertise will continue to be asked to produce studies and recommendations which will continue to be ignored.
Would electoral reform help? I don't know, but the country deserves better than the mess we ended up yesterday.
I have to disagree with the basic idea David is proposing here. Ignoring the issue of May for a moment it is surely utterly wrong that for either of the two party leaders who have a possibility of being PM they should not be a member of the Commons. All the talk of the other devolved Parliaments and assemblies is a red herring. None of those can provide a Prime Minister. The PM has to be answerable solely to the Commons and to have one who has split loyalty between the Commons and a higher authority within their own party seems to me to be completely unworkable and undemocratic.
Alienating the police force (Which should be a massive well of natural Tory support) was incredibly daft by May.
I completely agree.
Plus the cuts allowed Labour to beat us on law and order over the last week or so. She's fucking terrible.
I never understood the argument that bashing the Police Federation would help detoxify the Conservatives and win over ethnic minority voters.
Indeed. Most ordinary people don't remember or know about the speech but every police officer remembered being called a racist by the then Home Secretary, now PM.
I wonder if UKIP not standing candidates in the North and midlands actually helped Labour and hurt the Tories......
The digging down into these results is going to be fascinating. The UKIP--> Con switch was patchy at best. I think much of it was down to the quality of the respective candidate. For example Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moor View hoovered up 80%+ of the UKIP votes going walkabout. Others got less than a quarter.
The contrast in the two Plymouth seats is fascinating and is very similar to two adjacent North East seats.
Stockton South is a more prosperous seat than Middlesbrough South but the Tories managed to lose a 5,000 majority whilst gaining MS with some ease. The UKIP vote in adjacent seats went in very different directions, but why?
Its not necessarily only the UKIP vote that varied, there must have been direct switching from Lab to Con and Con to Lab in various areas. The Conservatives usually doing better in working class industrial areas with cheap houses along motorways while Labour usually doing better in middle class urban areas with expensive houses plus students.
The split between the two Southampton and two Portsmouth seats is also noticeable.
As is the difference between the Bristol seats and those that surround it.
Alienating the police force (Which should be a massive well of natural Tory support) was incredibly daft by May.
I completely agree.
What is so Toy about the police? May challenged the Union mentality of the federation. I can't help think that when people say 'natural Tory' they really mean 'soft fascist'. I wouldn't say that of the police.
Mr. Morerj, alas, I don't have that, but your post reminds me of something I meant to say before.
We should make notes of by-elections and refer to them at the next General Election in case anyone makes mistakes as happened for Richmond Park, cunningly tipped by Mr. Putney this time round (Lib Dem 26 and very hedgeable, only failed to come off by 45 votes).
Mr. Monksfield, is it, given May seemed to think aping Miliband and being a statist was a good idea?
And yet between 2230 and midnight PB was full of posts saying the exit poll was not credible and obviously wrong. People never learn...
As Peter Kellner, the rock star-god of polling, was saying the exit poll was not credible, those posters were in good company.
You do of course have a perfect right to snipe at those who got it wrong, though, because you said *at the time* that you had confidence in the exit poll, in a post you are about to link to. Congratulations.
And yet between 2230 and midnight PB was full of posts saying the exit poll was not credible and obviously wrong. People never learn...
As Peter Kellner, the rock star-god of polling, was saying the exit poll was not credible, those posters were in good company.
You do of course have a perfect right to snipe at those who got it wrong, though, because you said *at the time* that you had confidence in the exit poll, in a post you are about to link to. Congratulations.
I was too busy placing highly profitable bets on Betfair based on the poll to post.
I am surprised that Keller was so sceptical given he was presumably aware of his own organisations seat model that was predicting pretty much the same result as the exit poll.
And yet between 2230 and midnight PB was full of posts saying the exit poll was not credible and obviously wrong. People never learn...
As Peter Kellner, the rock star-god of polling, was saying the exit poll was not credible, those posters were in good company.
You do of course have a perfect right to snipe at those who got it wrong, though, because you said *at the time* that you had confidence in the exit poll, in a post you are about to link to. Congratulations.
John Curtis is of course the rock god of polling, Kellner's more yer washed up 80s mediocrity doing the occasional tour to remind people that he's still alive.
@BBCNormanS: Senior Tories say Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill must be sacked this weekend or leadership challenge on Monday
I'm amazed that it still hasn't happened? Surely Theresa must be furious with them, they've led her to one of the worst defeats suffered by the Tory party since WW2.
She got back into Downing Street, so I don't think we can say it was worse than 1997 or 2001 for instance.
But I agree otherwise. They should have gone on Friday.
This is eerily reminiscent of Gordon Brown's complete lack of awareness following the 2010 result. I can cling on.
The men in grey suits need to sit around a table with her today, force her to confront reality, and agree the way forward.
My look is that May will resign as PM soon, she has lost control of the PCP. Davis will come in as interim leader to steady the boat, then call an election in the autumn. Corbyn will then win and the Tories will have 5 years to rebuild. Corbyn will build the LP into a true social left political party and have new leaders available when he decides the time is right to retire - he is after all 70 now, though the doesn't act it.
Also if May were to go then as a caretaker whilst the election is being held Davis would be perfect so long as he was not intending to stand in the election himself. His involvement in the Brexit negotiations would allow them to continue until a successor could take over.
And yet between 2230 and midnight PB was full of posts saying the exit poll was not credible and obviously wrong. People never learn...
As Peter Kellner, the rock star-god of polling, was saying the exit poll was not credible, those posters were in good company.
You do of course have a perfect right to snipe at those who got it wrong, though, because you said *at the time* that you had confidence in the exit poll, in a post you are about to link to. Congratulations.
And yet between 2230 and midnight PB was full of posts saying the exit poll was not credible and obviously wrong. People never learn...
As Peter Kellner, the rock star-god of polling, was saying the exit poll was not credible, those posters were in good company.
You do of course have a perfect right to snipe at those who got it wrong, though, because you said *at the time* that you had confidence in the exit poll, in a post you are about to link to. Congratulations.
I was too busy placing highly profitable bets on Betfair based on the poll to post.
I am surprised that Keller was so sceptical given he was presumably aware of his own organisations seat model that was predicting pretty much the same result as the exit poll.
I think that was because in 2015 the YouGov "exit poll" was rubbish.
Wont every Tory have unprecedented influence over the PM?
Ruth has wounded the SNP but now needs to kill them off. As well as being seen to be independent of CCHQ, she needs to get a few billion of investment in the economy and protect Barnet, then she can really take the fight to the SNP. Till then !
Alienating the police force (Which should be a massive well of natural Tory support) was incredibly daft by May.
I completely agree.
Plus the cuts allowed Labour to beat us on law and order over the last week or so. She's fucking terrible.
I never understood the argument that bashing the Police Federation would help detoxify the Conservatives and win over ethnic minority voters.
It wasn't to do with detoxifying the party
Theresa May, to her credit, genuinely believes stop and search is flawed, and inherently racist policy, so she ended it.
The strong relationship the Tories used to have with the police irretrievably broke down between 2005-2008, thanks to Sir Ian Blair pimping for Tony Blair during Parliamentary votes.
The cherry on the parfait was the shameful arrest of Damian Green for doing his job, which enraged every Tory in 2008.
Then there was the incident in Downing Street with Andrew Mitchell which saw some do prison time for lying.
As one Tory MP put it 'If the police are prepared to lie and fit up a cabinet minister, then what will they do an innocent black guy in Brixton?'
And yet between 2230 and midnight PB was full of posts saying the exit poll was not credible and obviously wrong. People never learn...
As Peter Kellner, the rock star-god of polling, was saying the exit poll was not credible, those posters were in good company.
You do of course have a perfect right to snipe at those who got it wrong, though, because you said *at the time* that you had confidence in the exit poll, in a post you are about to link to. Congratulations.
And yet between 2230 and midnight PB was full of posts saying the exit poll was not credible and obviously wrong. People never learn...
As Peter Kellner, the rock star-god of polling, was saying the exit poll was not credible, those posters were in good company.
You do of course have a perfect right to snipe at those who got it wrong, though, because you said *at the time* that you had confidence in the exit poll, in a post you are about to link to. Congratulations.
I was too busy placing highly profitable bets on Betfair based on the poll to post.
I am surprised that Keller was so sceptical given he was presumably aware of his own organisations seat model that was predicting pretty much the same result as the exit poll.
But not too busy to read everyone else's posts. Apparently.
@JamieRoss7: It's honestly not clear now who's more powerful in Scotland between Davidson and Sturgeon. We've got some Game of Thrones shit on our hands.
The mojo is with Davidson, however, Sturgeon remains leader of by far the largest party in Scotland and is FM. That could all change at the next Scottish election of course, but very hard to call imho. Today Sturgeon is a much diminished leader, as is Theresa May I add, looking on the bright side the UK looks safer now than it has in a decade and SIndieRef2 firmly booted into the long grass.
Comments
Cracking example of noone should win it, but someone must.
(sorry, that is actually trolling, and I genuinely apologise. But the parallels between the 2016Leave campaigns and 2017Labour campaigns - ignore experts, assume no downside, unrealistic expectations of gain - need to be drawn, particularly if we have another election soon)
Mr. P, hmm, not sure I was aware of that. I have a vague recollection of Timothy being thrown out for something to do with Gove, perhaps?
Anyway, the incompetence is sufficient for them to be put in a sack with a snake, a dog and a cockerel, and thrown in the Thames.
By comparison Stoke South, Mansfield, Derbyshire NE, Walsall N and Copeland were never won by Thatcher.
Instead of Single election campaigns with arguments being thrashed out in a public, and accountable context, millions of individual campaigns are happening. Fake news is very much a thing.
And their grandchildren will be the Labour voters of that era.
Was forever thus...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9dMHrfIl1I
It has to be admitted that the YouGov polling and the exit poll were remarkably precise. They were finding Labour wins where others were rating them as 100% chances for the Cons.
This time.... ;-)
Theresa The House Stealer is done....
It's now a question of determining the degree of obedience.
Sit and beg, or get put down.
Her choice...
As a consequence, here is for example what Labour was able to say about Brexit in a leaflet in my constituency (all consistent with the manifesto although generally we chose to play Brexit down):
"The Tories claim the election is about whether Britain leaves the EU - but it's not. Labour accepts the referendum result. Labour will get a deal that preserves the UK's trade and jobs. The Tories offer a chaotic Brexit. They can't get a trade deal as they won't sign up to EU minimum standards of workers' rights, consumer and environmental protection. On EU migration, Labour offers fair rules, balancing new controls with our economic needs. Freedom of movement will end."
Even post-recession in recent years tens of thousands of jobs have been lost in the oil industry. Well paid highly skilled jobs that pay a lot of tax and help to support the communities where they operate from. There has barely been a peep about it in London.
It appears that they have genuinely forgotten how to do the craft of politics. Blair built a machine: use focus groups to test your messages, tailor the manifesto accordingly, ruthless control of your MPs, suck up to the media shamelessly, dress professionally. He killed the opposition so hard it was unchivalrous. Cameron tried to do likewise and had some limited success. May threw the manifesto together with chums, pratted around, missed the debates (a decision so stupid it was actually funny), and spent tens of millions of taxpayers' money losing net thirteen seats.
Sack advisers.
Install consultaion with colleagues on policies.
Focus on Brexit and dump other stuff.
Re-introduce Cabinet government.
Uni budget £ 9 bn
DFID budget £9 bn
the DFID nonsense was simply a Cameron fetish to allow him to play noblesse oblige with taxpayers money
Id suggest voters would rather invest in our young than the Indian sapce programme
The Conservatives threatened their inheritances and offered something for their kids.
Or if they're a bit younger they have student debts and can't afford to buy a home. would they be happy with the government ?
We've had three elections in a row in which the voters neither wished to give the Conservatives a substantial majority, nor wished to return Labour to office.
But does she have it in her?
She's done.
“I spoke to far too many people who were supposed to be ‘category one and category two’ strong sup-porters, who were just pissed off, absolutely pissed off, with indyref2 talk. We’re not talking about undecided voters here, we’re talking about our supporters.
“The message that indyref2 is not for now but for later at the end of the Brexit process did not get through at all. We completely failed to communicate that point.
“That was a major failure on our part as a party nationally. Our communication strategy was all over the place in terms of indyref2.”
http://www.thenational.scot/news/15339855.What_went_wrong__Party_insiders_tell_why_they_think_the_SNP_lost_21_seats/
At the very least ideological free-market extremists and engines of kleptocracy (like The Taxpayer's Alliance) can be put back in their box...
Now, it looks unlikely, at best...
Stockton South is a more prosperous seat than Middlesbrough South but the Tories managed to lose a 5,000 majority whilst gaining MS with some ease. The UKIP vote in adjacent seats went in very different directions, but why?
Glad I laid Con majority to reduce my loss. Wish I'd hedged at 1.7 Con seats 350-399, but betting is rather easier with hindsight.
Honest.
I even did a thread on it. Ahem.
After whining about Thatcher 'shutting the factories and mines' throughout the 1980s and 1990s Labour did nothing in government while manufacturing employment fell by a million and a half.
And then in 2008-9, while half the people I worked with were made redundant, Labour chose to bail out the bankers and let Goodwin and Applegarth walk away with millions from the taxpayer.
Another thing they should learn from this election and the Tory 'dementia tax' is that inheritance tax is a big vote-loser. Leave things as they are! The perception is that government is stealing from one's children.
I accept Labour's vote was probably higher with Corbyn than it would have been with a mainstream leader, but for left-leaning voters of a certain age his toxicity was very off putting. When Hamas and the IRA were killing children, Corbyn sympathising with their cause, even in the name of future peace is unforgivable to many.
Scottish Westminster MPs lifetimes measured in terms of Mayflys.
Obviously we are looking at this through rose -tinted glasses.
This is also an anti-establishment mood out there, and we were all saying it was strange the Tories were doing so well.
That shouldn't be cause for complacency of course.
You do of course have a perfect right to snipe at those who got it wrong, though, because you said *at the time* that you had confidence in the exit poll, in a post you are about to link to. Congratulations.
Corbyn may be channelling something but his actual ideas are 40 years or more out of date. It's not progressive or radical to repeat the mistakes of the past. I think a patriotic forward-looking Labour leader who offered EFTA would have be an easy winner of the election.
bastards
People with knowledge of health economics, experience in education and other useful areas of expertise will continue to be asked to produce studies and recommendations which will continue to be ignored.
Would electoral reform help? I don't know, but the country deserves better than the mess we ended up yesterday.
https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/873497555434450944
The split between the two Southampton and two Portsmouth seats is also noticeable.
As is the difference between the Bristol seats and those that surround it.
We should make notes of by-elections and refer to them at the next General Election in case anyone makes mistakes as happened for Richmond Park, cunningly tipped by Mr. Putney this time round (Lib Dem 26 and very hedgeable, only failed to come off by 45 votes).
Mr. Monksfield, is it, given May seemed to think aping Miliband and being a statist was a good idea?
I am surprised that Keller was so sceptical given he was presumably aware of his own organisations seat model that was predicting pretty much the same result as the exit poll.
But I agree otherwise. They should have gone on Friday.
This is eerily reminiscent of Gordon Brown's complete lack of awareness following the 2010 result. I can cling on.
The men in grey suits need to sit around a table with her today, force her to confront reality, and agree the way forward.
https://twitter.com/susannecc/status/873184980943470594
Theresa May, to her credit, genuinely believes stop and search is flawed, and inherently racist policy, so she ended it.
The strong relationship the Tories used to have with the police irretrievably broke down between 2005-2008, thanks to Sir Ian Blair pimping for Tony Blair during Parliamentary votes.
The cherry on the parfait was the shameful arrest of Damian Green for doing his job, which enraged every Tory in 2008.
Then there was the incident in Downing Street with Andrew Mitchell which saw some do prison time for lying.
As one Tory MP put it 'If the police are prepared to lie and fit up a cabinet minister, then what will they do an innocent black guy in Brixton?'