More importantly look at those numbers for Brexit. Puts the lie to all those claiming Brexit should be abandoned.
No they don't. The number explicitly supporting a second referendum is up around 10%. The trend is diminishing support for Brexit.
The crucial poll will be YouGov because they've had consistent methodology and shown that the country has remained divided. If it now shows a shift to Remain then the writing is on the wall.
Excluding don't knows the number saying they don't want a second referendum is 60%. That is substantially higher than the number who actually voted Leave. We are leaving. Get used to it.
Those who want a second referendum will almost all want to vote Remain. Those who don't want a second referendum will have a huge variety of views.
You really think that anyone who now wants us to kill Brexit would argue against a second referendum? You are indeed delusional.
I said they will have a variety of views. People who don't want a second referendum include people who:
- Are utterly committed to Brexit. - Don't care about Brexit at all. - Don't want Brexit but don't want to divide the country again. - Think parliament should be in control of what happens now.
Which doesn't square at all with the polling that shows a clear majority say we should just get on with it. As I said you are delusional. We are leaving. Hopefully it will be an EEA type Brexit but if it is a hard Brexit then so be it. Anything is better than remaining in the EU.
YouGov finds for the first time, Corbyn has drawn level with Mrs May on who would make the best Prime Minister
He really is crap if he's not ahead now!
Give it a week, he will be.
I think the only person capable of stopping the Corbyn juggernaut heading into number 10 is Ruth Davidson, and even then I have my doubts.
I think Cameron's and May's antics in playing politics with elections has well and truly fucked the Tories for a generation......and laid the bedrock for a left wing, populist revolution...
What will become of layabout rentier millionaires like yourself in the imminent red terror ?
I know the left will come after property and wealth...they have to; it's the only way to redistribute wealth and pay for the kind of state that we all need.....going after income just doesn't cut it anymore....
So, I am making arrangements now to protect some of my assets and I'll pay the rest when it comes because I can and because that is fair....
Labour don't need a majority to win - indeed with a weakened SNP, Corbyn wouldn't nearly be in Nicola's pocket as much as Theresa is in Arlene's right now.
Yes but look how many SNP seats Labour would win on getting towards a majority. Half of the remaining Nationalist seats fall with a swing of 3.3% to Labour and several more to the other parties on a similar swing to them. The great tsunami over the SNP vote in 2015 receded quite a bit on Thursday and it does not need to drop much further for them to back to being the 4th party at Westminster. If Labour get close then the arithmetic could end up similar to the CON/DUP scenario where a party of 10 or so MPs have a lot more influence than a party of 35 or 56.
Labour don't need a majority to win - indeed with a weakened SNP, Corbyn wouldn't nearly be in Nicola's pocket as much as Theresa is in Arlene's right now.
More importantly look at those numbers for Brexit. Puts the lie to all those claiming Brexit should be abandoned.
No they don't. The number explicitly supporting a second referendum is up around 10%. The trend is diminishing support for Brexit.
The crucial poll will be YouGov because they've had consistent methodology and shown that the country has remained divided. If it now shows a shift to Remain then the writing is on the wall.
Excluding don't knows the number saying they don't want a second referendum is 60%. That is substantially higher than the number who actually voted Leave. We are leaving. Get used to it.
Those who want a second referendum will almost all want to vote Remain. Those who don't want a second referendum will have a huge variety of views.
The chances of a second referendum went when the LDs made only 4 net gains and Clegg lost his seat, even Corbyn backs Brexit though it may now be fudged Brexit rather than hard Brexit
Not necessarily. If Labour reaches the point where the MPs feel able to express their own views, almost all opposed to Brexit, perhaps in a scenario where public opinion has started to turn, they will still be left with their earlier support for A50 based on "respecting the referendum". The way out of this impasse for them is to have a second referendum to trump the first. This would also make it easier for parliament to reject the Tories' final Brexit deal, contingent in putting the final deal to the people.
In either scenario there are enough remainer Tories, particularly after the election, to provide the necessary parliamentary majority.
Labour need to urgently get their best talent back in the Shadow Cabinet, and fine-tune parts of their manifesto to make sure all the sums really do "add up" and that everything is workable. The next election is Labour's for the taking, and it could well be coming very soon.
Cheers - as @dixiedean says down-thread: "This shit has just got real"!!!
This might be the wrong time to ask but what's so bad about the Dementia Tax? Right now your house gets taken off you and sold if you go into care, and you keep about £25,000 or something.
Actually there wans't anything particularly bad about the policy )that I could see)
The problem was all in the timing (in the middle of an election campaign) and the messaging (you just can't "sell" a policy like this on the doorsteps in the middle of an election campaign)
All they had to say in the manifesto is that they were committed to "looking" at various funding models for social care and we'll get back to you with the details after a consultation.
That's it. That would've covered everything and nobody would've thought any more about it.
Unfortunately state-owned care homes can be pretty awful.
But, like many other state-owned enterprises, they aren't on the continent. There is no fundamental reason why they should be here.
What makes the British incapable of operating a decent state? I wonder if the electoral system promotes game-playing over nation-building.
I dont think there is any such thing as a state owned care home, ie owned by the national government, is there? There are Local Authority ones but very few now (maybe 10% of the market and declining very rapidly). All of them, private or local authority, are assessed by the CQC so the quality ratings are public data, I dont know for sure but my guess is that quality problems are much more focussed in the small private homes.
Having had to look at care homes in recent years it is very much the case that the council run ones are much poorer in terms of service and quality than the private ones.
Interesting. The vast majority of places are in the private sector though, so even if you are LA funded you are much more likely to end up in a private one.
YouGov finds for the first time, Corbyn has drawn level with Mrs May on who would make the best Prime Minister
He really is crap if he's not ahead now!
Give it a week, he will be.
I think the only person capable of stopping the Corbyn juggernaut heading into number 10 is Ruth Davidson, and even then I have my doubts.
I think Cameron's and May's antics in playing politics with elections has well and truly fucked the Tories for a generation......and laid the bedrock for a left wing, populist revolution...
What will become of layabout rentier millionaires like yourself in the imminent red terror ?
I know the left will come after property and wealth...they have to; it's the only way to redistribute wealth and pay for the kind of state that we all need.....going after income just doesn't cut it anymore....
So, I am making arrangements now to protect some of my assets and I'll pay the rest when it comes because I can and because that is fair....
A people's court will have to decide if the ' arrangements " you are currently making are indeed fair.
Perhaps surprisingly, Con is favourite to win most seats.
At GE 2017, Con got 56 more seats with a 2.4% lead.
Does anyone yet have the figures for (assuming UNS):
- Con lead needed for Con maj - Lab lead needed for equal Con/Lab seats (it must be a Lab lead I think) - Lab lead needed for Lab maj
What likelihood is there of the boundary changes going through before the next election? Does it merely depend on the date of the election or does the current make up of parliament make it unlikely the boundary changes will progress. Anyone have a view?
I think the changes will be less beneficial for Tories than they would have appeared to be and with 50 less seats there will be some MPs that will have real concerns about themselves being shuffled out of Parliament or end up in a far less favourable seat, there's not a chance of it passing.
I think this is completely wrong. There are now fewer Tory MPs to placate, and the loss of the majority just shows how vital boundary changes are for the party's future, so it's more likely it will go through. The extension of the parliamentary term means they can even use the Parliament Act.
They can buy the DUP off with peerages.
The DUP will want more than a few peerages, indeed I think they'll block the boundary changes as they are poor for the Ulstermen.
Reading Vince Cable's column in the Sunday Mail the lib dems are not looking to help labour under Corbyn and thinks that there is a good chance that the conservatives with the DUP could go the full term if they soften their Brexit stance ( which I think is inevitable)
The LD's will be on the wrong side of the road if they obstruct Corbyn.......they need to get on board of a Corbyn progressive alliance that is going to sweep everything ahead of it in the coming months and years....
The only Tory capable of halting him is Ruth Davidson....and even then I doubt it......
My local Momentum group is applying pressure to Chris Leslie to stop talking about Saint Jez in public, the civil war rumbles on unabated.
I don't think I'd call it civil war - constructive pieces like Joff's are what's needed now from the centre. I think it's reasonable to ask Chris to restrain himself for a few months while we see how things work out.
They are being very, very aggressive about it. I have a few friends that take part and as far as they are concerned this election was an endorsement of Corbyn, not the Labour party.
Doesn't matter how it was intended, each Labour vote is an endorsement of Corbyn.
I think if you'd offered the Tories 43.5% of the GB vote at the start of the campaign they probably would have taken it. After all, that's exactly the same share of the vote that Thatcher obtained at the 1983 election. What they, and many others, probably didn't expect was that the LDs would languish at 8% and that therefore 43.5% wouldn't provide a sufficient lead over Labour to get a good majority.
Labour don't need a majority to win - indeed with a weakened SNP, Corbyn wouldn't nearly be in Nicola's pocket as much as Theresa is in Arlene's right now.
Labour don't need a majority to win - indeed with a weakened SNP, Corbyn wouldn't nearly be in Nicola's pocket as much as Theresa is in Arlene's right now.
Labour don't need a majority to win - indeed with a weakened SNP, Corbyn wouldn't nearly be in Nicola's pocket as much as Theresa is in Arlene's right now.
Knowing what they know now, at a theoretical 2nd election, how do you think Scots voters will break when the choice is not Ruth/ Nicola, but Labour/DUP+ May/ Boris,/Hammond,/Rudd? That choice alone could see Labour in power.
DUp will play hard ball, and have enough experience of the tough world of NI politics to know that whatever is the first draft of a deal has to be rejected by the rest of the parliamentary party, who send the negotiating team back to get yet more concessions. Just like experienced union reps use their committees, and then their members, to extract successive concessions from management.
If the Tories ever thought the first deal would stick then they truly are naive.
Perhaps surprisingly, Con is favourite to win most seats.
At GE 2017, Con got 56 more seats with a 2.4% lead.
Does anyone yet have the figures for (assuming UNS):
- Con lead needed for Con maj - Lab lead needed for equal Con/Lab seats (it must be a Lab lead I think) - Lab lead needed for Lab maj
What likelihood is there of the boundary changes going through before the next election? Does it merely depend on the date of the election or does the current make up of parliament make it unlikely the boundary changes will progress. Anyone have a view?
I think the changes will be less beneficial for Tories than they would have appeared to be and with 50 less seats there will be some MPs that will have real concerns about themselves being shuffled out of Parliament or end up in a far less favourable seat, there's not a chance of it passing.
I think this is completely wrong. There are now fewer Tory MPs to placate, and the loss of the majority just shows how vital boundary changes are for the party's future, so it's more likely it will go through. The extension of the parliamentary term means they can even use the Parliament Act.
They can buy the DUP off with peerages.
The DUP will want more than a few peerages, indeed I think they'll block the boundary changes as they are poor for the Ulstermen.
Reading Vince Cable's column in the Sunday Mail the lib dems are not looking to help labour under Corbyn and thinks that there is a good chance that the conservatives with the DUP could go the full term if they soften their Brexit stance ( which I think is inevitable)
Labour don't need a majority to win - indeed with a weakened SNP, Corbyn wouldn't nearly be in Nicola's pocket as much as Theresa is in Arlene's right now.
Would LDs like Norman Lamb and Tom Brake vote for a Corbyn Queen's Speech?
...Did make me wonder whether it was suppressing your pay somewhat, @viewcode - in principal someone with such in-demand STEM skills should be paying paid a princely ransom, but you don't seem to be on the receiving end of one!
The problem with a tech job (and the reason why I got out of it and entered statistics) is that a) tech dates rapidly, and b) the required skillset is infinitely large. I've seen job ads that require C++, Javascript, VB, R, SAS and Hadoop, despite all six of those things reflecting different computer disciplines. Every year there is something new: for example Microsoft Azure is this years' new black that all the hipsters wear, and my tech skills date faster than my capacity to acquire new ones.
This is why I prefer maths and stats: it doesn't date and every new job adds to my skillset instead of replacing it.
Indeed. Though still, they should be paying you more!
I have a rather old and decrepit law degree. It may have taught me a lot about how to think, write and argue, but the content of it doesn't age well at all. There are lots of things I'm half-sure I half-remember, but still can't be sure it hasn't changed completely since! Since people seem willing to pay me to do other things, which requires other knowledge/skills, I don't make any effort to keep up - in fact actively avoid doing it.
Thank you. The older we get, the more we learn about what we need to know...
Unfortunately state-owned care homes can be pretty awful.
But, like many other state-owned enterprises, they aren't on the continent. There is no fundamental reason why they should be here.
What makes the British incapable of operating a decent state? I wonder if the electoral system promotes game-playing over nation-building.
Very sorry to hear about your mother. My sympathies.
Re "What makes the British incapable of operating a decent state" - I do wonder whether our perceptions about the quality of state services rendered to our continental cousins are biased. There are lots of information filters between there and here. I wouldn't know how to work out from first principles the manner in which those filters act, but the grass is greener on the other side is a proverb for a reason. We do occasionally see articles indicating things aren't necessarily much better over there either (the BBC did a piece on the German healthcare system recently, payoff of it being "we're paying rather more than the British do, but our results are similar to theirs", and the Guardian one on German infrastructure failings - a naff railway system, eternal holdups on their shiny new airport, Cologne's archive being destroyed by a tunnel collapse) but the mood music is generally to the contrary.
Are there even decent international comparisons of care quality? I'm sure there are stats on costs, staffing ratios and so on, but two care homes can look very similar on such metrics yet be night-and-day apart. Would be great if someone had done extensive CQC-style inspections so a meaningful comparison could be drawn.
On topic SO tells Corbyns critics to lay off for the good of the party.
Wonder if SO will vote Lab under Corbyn next time for the best opportunity to get rid of the Tories?
I have some very serious thinking to do. I have to admit that Corbyn has surprised me hugely over the last six week, as has the fact that voters have clearly warmed to him and been willing to overlook a back story that I found - still find - very unpleasant. What I very much hope is that Corbyn, too, may have learned a few things while on the road these last six weeks. There is no doubt that the whole Labour movement pulled together and worked together over the course of the campaign. Momentum and Progress organised members and supported MPs and candidates from across the party. I also sense that this may have engendered comradely feelings that may not have been there before. I now live in a Labour marginal. That was not the case before. My kids are all energised and so excited about what has happened. I have not slept much since Wednesday and at times I feel close to tears thinking about their enthusiasm and the fact that they have seen their hopes turned into something real. That is a wonderful thing to observe. I kind of feel that I owe it to them to give it another go. Especially as the alternative is just so awful.
You'd be very, very welcome. And yes, in the two seats where I was (one had a Momentum candidate, the other a Progress candidate) people just forgot about their differences and enjoyed working together.
Perhaps surprisingly, Con is favourite to win most seats.
At GE 2017, Con got 56 more seats with a 2.4% lead.
Does anyone yet have the figures for (assuming UNS):
- Con lead needed for Con maj - Lab lead needed for equal Con/Lab seats (it must be a Lab lead I think) - Lab lead needed for Lab maj
What likelihood is there of the boundary changes going through before the next election? Does it merely depend on the date of the election or does the current make up of parliament make it unlikely the boundary changes will progress. Anyone have a view?
I think the changes will be less beneficial for Tories than they would have appeared to be and with 50 less seats there will be some MPs that will have real concerns about themselves being shuffled out of Parliament or end up in a far less favourable seat, there's not a chance of it passing.
I think this is completely wrong. There are now fewer Tory MPs to placate, and the loss of the majority just shows how vital boundary changes are for the party's future, so it's more likely it will go through. The extension of the parliamentary term means they can even use the Parliament Act.
They can buy the DUP off with peerages.
The DUP will want more than a few peerages, indeed I think they'll block the boundary changes as they are poor for the Ulstermen.
Reading Vince Cable's column in the Sunday Mail the lib dems are not looking to help labour under Corbyn and thinks that there is a good chance that the conservatives with the DUP could go the full term if they soften their Brexit stance ( which I think is inevitable)
The LD's will be on the wrong side of the road if they obstruct Corbyn.......they need to get on board of a Corbyn progressive alliance that is going to sweep everything ahead of it in the coming months and years....
The only Tory capable of halting him is Ruth Davidson....and even then I doubt it......
The lib dems will not support him. Vince Cable denounces Corbyn's tax and spend policies. Indeed the SNP do not support his large corporation tax rises. If the lid dems abstainon votes the government will win
YouGov finds for the first time, Corbyn has drawn level with Mrs May on who would make the best Prime Minister
He really is crap if he's not ahead now!
Give it a week, he will be.
I think the only person capable of stopping the Corbyn juggernaut heading into number 10 is Ruth Davidson, and even then I have my doubts.
I think Cameron's and May's antics in playing politics with elections has well and truly fucked the Tories for a generation......and laid the bedrock for a left wing, populist revolution...
A "generation" implies, what 20-25 years? Corbyn and the extreme left won't be in power that long. They might make two terms though (10 years) I assume term one will be fairly modest (by their standards) term two they'll let rip with very extreme marxism (they won't be able to help themselves) and will be out after their second term.
Still 10 years of extreme left wing ideology will do immense damage...
Perhaps surprisingly, Con is favourite to win most seats.
At GE 2017, Con got 56 more seats with a 2.4% lead.
Does anyone yet have the figures for (assuming UNS):
- Con lead needed for Con maj - Lab lead needed for equal Con/Lab seats (it must be a Lab lead I think) - Lab lead needed for Lab maj
What likelihood is there of the boundary changes going through before the next election? Does it merely depend on the date of the election or does the current make up of parliament make it unlikely the boundary changes will progress. Anyone have a view?
I think the changes will be less beneficial for Tories than they would have appeared to be and with 50 less seats there will be some MPs that will have real concerns about themselves being shuffled out of Parliament or end up in a far less favourable seat, there's not a chance of it passing.
I think this is completely wrong. There are now fewer Tory MPs to placate, and the loss of the majority just shows how vital boundary changes are for the party's future, so it's more likely it will go through. The extension of the parliamentary term means they can even use the Parliament Act.
They can buy the DUP off with peerages.
The DUP will want more than a few peerages, indeed I think they'll block the boundary changes as they are poor for the Ulstermen.
On topic SO tells Corbyns critics to lay off for the good of the party.
Wonder if SO will vote Lab under Corbyn next time for the best opportunity to get rid of the Tories?
I have some very serious thinking to do. I have to admit that Corbyn has surprised me hugely over the last six week, as has the fact that voters have clearly warmed to him and been willing to overlook a back story that I found - still find - very unpleasant. What I very much hope is that Corbyn, too, may have learned a few things while on the road these last six weeks. There is no doubt that the whole Labour movement pulled together and worked together over the course of the campaign. Momentum and Progress organised members and supported MPs and candidates from across the party. I also sense that this may have engendered comradely feelings that may not have been there before. I now live in a Labour marginal. That was not the case before. My kids are all energised and so excited about what has happened. I have not slept much since Wednesday and at times I feel close to tears thinking about their enthusiasm and the fact that they have seen their hopes turned into something real. That is a wonderful thing to observe. I kind of feel that I owe it to them to give it another go. Especially as the alternative is just so awful.
Good my daughter has just joined the Lab. Party as have 3 of her mates.All under 23 years old.
I think the party is in rude health with such an influx.
On topic SO tells Corbyns critics to lay off for the good of the party.
Wonder if SO will vote Lab under Corbyn next time for the best opportunity to get rid of the Tories?
I have some very serious thinking to do. I have to admit that Corbyn has surprised me hugely over the last six week, as has the fact that voters have clearly warmed to him and been willing to overlook a back story that I found - still find - very unpleasant. What I very much hope is that Corbyn, too, may have learned a few things while on the road these last six weeks. There is no doubt that the whole Labour movement pulled together and worked together over the course of the campaign. Momentum and Progress organised members and supported MPs and candidates from across the party. I also sense that this may have engendered comradely feelings that may not have been there before. I now live in a Labour marginal. That was not the case before. My kids are all energised and so excited about what has happened. I have not slept much since Wednesday and at times I feel close to tears thinking about their enthusiasm and the fact that they have seen their hopes turned into something real. That is a wonderful thing to observe. I kind of feel that I owe it to them to give it another go. Especially as the alternative is just so awful.
Good my daughter has just joined the Lab. Party as have 3 of her mates.All under 23 years old.
I think the party is in rude health with such an influx.
I really do fear for these young kids so enamored with Jezza when he inevitably lets them down and destroys the country in the process...
DUp will play hard ball, and have enough experience of the tough world of NI politics to know that whatever is the first draft of a deal has to be rejected by the rest of the parliamentary party, who send the negotiating team back to get yet more concessions. Just like experienced union reps use their committees, and then their members, to extract successive concessions from management.
If the Tories ever thought the first deal would stick then they truly are naive.
Perhaps May should get the DUP to run the Brexit negotiations.
I bet the DUP have never had so much FUN as they're having now.
The Tories are dancing to Arlene's tune now.
The DUP are a bunch of miserable proddie racist, homophobic, creationist, sectarian, climate change denying, zealous, bible bashing, ugly (I mean really fucking aesthetically ugly) bastards.....
I cannot even being to imagine what their idea of fun is....I really cannot.....
...Did make me wonder whether it was suppressing your pay somewhat, @viewcode - in principal someone with such in-demand STEM skills should be paying paid a princely ransom, but you don't seem to be on the receiving end of one!
The problem with a tech job (and the reason why I got out of it and entered statistics) is that a) tech dates rapidly, and b) the required skillset is infinitely large. I've seen job ads that require C++, Javascript, VB, R, SAS and Hadoop, despite all six of those things reflecting different computer disciplines. Every year there is something new: for example Microsoft Azure is this years' new black that all the hipsters wear, and my tech skills date faster than my capacity to acquire new ones.
This is why I prefer maths and stats: it doesn't date and every new job adds to my skillset instead of replacing it.
Indeed. Though still, they should be paying you more!
I have a rather old and decrepit law degree. It may have taught me a lot about how to think, write and argue, but the content of it doesn't age well at all. There are lots of things I'm half-sure I half-remember, but still can't be sure it hasn't changed completely since! Since people seem willing to pay me to do other things, which requires other knowledge/skills, I don't make any effort to keep up - in fact actively avoid doing it.
Thank you. The older we get, the more we learn about what we need to know...
Amen to that, brother. Though the thing that really galls is realising how much I didn't have to know, bearing in mind the opportunity costs of foregone knowledge of things that would have turned out useful.
All looks worse in retrospect of course. A lot of what we graft to learn is there to purchase us a real option that we may or may not end up exercising. And even though we don't end up exercising it, in this uncertain world, it may well still have been good value to acquire at the time. Still, buyer's - gambler's - regret.
I dont think there is any such thing as a state owned care home, ie owned by the national government, is there? There are Local Authority ones but very few now (maybe 10% of the market and declining very rapidly). All of them, private or local authority, are assessed by the CQC so the quality ratings are public data, I dont know for sure but my guess is that quality problems are much more focussed in the small private homes.
I make no distinction between national and local government when I say state-owned. Local government is responsible for state provision of social care (which is itself ridiculous). The state funds care at 50-70% of the cost charged by a typical private care home, so any quality difference is hardly surprising. The social care system is not only badly underfunded, it is also fragmented into local authority units, thereby denying us the economies of cooperation, specialisation, and scale. In truth, it's not a coherent system at all, rather a patchwork of cobbled-together afterthoughts. A mess.
Part of the problem is that, for most of their history, these illnesses were viewed by medics as natural consequences of ageing (which they are not). This has placed them politically outside the ambit of healthcare.
Are there even decent international comparisons of care quality? I'm sure there are stats on costs, staffing ratios and so on, but two care homes can look very similar on such metrics yet be night-and-day apart. Would be great if someone had done extensive CQC-style inspections so a meaningful comparison could be drawn.
That's a fair point. My knowledge is more extensive than most, but largely anecdotal. Rigorous cross-country analyses would be very welcome. Indeed, this is an issue on which nations should be collaborating actively.
Boris is the only one who can appeal to Tory voters and some Labour voters in that poll. Boris leads with Tory and Labour voters, Davis is second with Tory voters but not Labour voters, Hammond is second with Labour voters but not Tory voters
Boris is the only one who can appeal to Tory voters and some Labour voters in that poll
I already said the only one that has a hope of taking on Jezza's Cult-like persona is Boris... Although I'm not confident at all... But in the current mood the Tories would be well advised to coalesce around Johnson, install him as PM without a leadership election and just hope he can still cut through with floaters like he did 5 years ago....
YouGov finds for the first time, Corbyn has drawn level with Mrs May on who would make the best Prime Minister
He really is crap if he's not ahead now!
Give it a week, he will be.
I think the only person capable of stopping the Corbyn juggernaut heading into number 10 is Ruth Davidson, and even then I have my doubts.
I think Cameron's and May's antics in playing politics with elections has well and truly fucked the Tories for a generation......and laid the bedrock for a left wing, populist revolution...
A "generation" implies, what 20-25 years? Corbyn and the extreme left won't be in power that long. They might make two terms though (10 years) I assume term one will be fairly modest (by their standards) term two they'll let rip with very extreme marxism (they won't be able to help themselves) and will be out after their second term.
Still 10 years of extreme left wing ideology will do immense damage...
OK...but it's going to be a long time before the Tories look capable of winning a GE......from 1993-2007 they were out of the game....
they will be behind the polls in my opinion for a similar amount of time unless they go for Davidson...
I was ready to be suspicious of the polls but the real reason that I thought the Tories would get a substantial majority was the sense of dread amongst Labour MPs. Many clearly expected to lose their seats. Now there wasn't much marginals polling done so why was that? Why weren't they able to see that the situation for them was much better than it seemed? Did they just ignore the young voters who they assumed couldn't be relied upon.
Turnout was only up by 2.6%. Was that enough to generate the huge youth turnout? Perhaps, if turnout was down amongst some other groups.
I was about the post that, the youth vote did surge but other groups fell back.
I will be interested to note if YouGov? last poll vote which showed by age, and the Tories were only winning with the oldies was the case.
Did some oldies sit it out, middle aged did vote more for Labour than Tories, or it was student surge.
Would particularly be interesting to know whether the middle-aged Labour majority was due to a lot of late Labour-Tory switching in that demographic, or because (as I suspect happened with older folk) people who would have tempted Tory were so untempted by what was on offer that they didn't show up...
Cheers for digging that out, that was indeed the poll I was talking about. In previous polls earlier in the campaign the Tories were doing just fine with the middle aged. Assuming this one is correct, the puzzle is whether their was a late Tory-Lab swing, whether Tory "voters" just couldn't bring themselves to the polling station, or if the earlier polls were wrong...
Well my morning thread has been written, if you're Theresa May or a friend/fan of her, you might want to give it a miss.
Do fans exist? If she enters formal coalition with DUP or gives them very much I would struggle to support the Tories. Surely she's been told now that the DUP are not the UUP. She seemed confused earlier
Commentators have said that Labour did well and improved their vote, seats and achieved a better platform for the next General Election. One has to wonder though, how much of a drag was Corbyn in reality? Labour might have done even better with another leader, maybe even getting to the largest party status. Corbyn only looks to have done well because the bench mark was so low.
Translation: The DUP takes note of the latest Survation poll, and notes that we have the Tories over an even bigger pork barrel than first thought. We'll make their lives a living hell whilst we utterly toxify the Tories so they can't possibly win an election, after all they wouldn't want that Mr Corbyn in now would they.
YouGov finds for the first time, Corbyn has drawn level with Mrs May on who would make the best Prime Minister
He really is crap if he's not ahead now!
Give it a week, he will be.
I think the only person capable of stopping the Corbyn juggernaut heading into number 10 is Ruth Davidson, and even then I have my doubts.
I think Cameron's and May's antics in playing politics with elections has well and truly fucked the Tories for a generation......and laid the bedrock for a left wing, populist revolution...
A "generation" implies, what 20-25 years? Corbyn and the extreme left won't be in power that long. They might make two terms though (10 years) I assume term one will be fairly modest (by their standards) term two they'll let rip with very extreme marxism (they won't be able to help themselves) and will be out after their second term.
Still 10 years of extreme left wing ideology will do immense damage...
OK...but it's going to be a long time before the Tories look capable of winning a GE......from 1993-2007 they were out of the game....
they will be behind the polls in my opinion for a similar amount of time unless they go for Davidson...
I'm not convinced about that at all. Remember Blair was so successful because he was essentially a small "C" Tory leading a center left party.
That won't be the case with a Corbyn-led Labour government. Give it a couple of years and everyone on the center right will be flocking to the Tories... Although like I said Jezza might do a decade depending on how big his first majority is.
As far as Ruth is concerned I can tell you that in my particular part of the Shires she is very unpopular with natural Con elderly voters for the part she played in attempting to steal the WFA from elderly pensioners in England to pay for the WFA for Scottish pensioners (I realize this is unfair but that was the perception)
I think she'd struggle as much as May with Pensioners down South,
Labour need to urgently get their best talent back in the Shadow Cabinet, and fine-tune parts of their manifesto to make sure all the sums really do "add up" and that everything is workable. The next election is Labour's for the taking, and it could well be coming very soon.
Cheers - as @dixiedean says down-thread: "This shit has just got real"!!!
Not quite spot on, the final Survation had the Tories 2% below what they actually got across GB
It'd be bigger than that, I doubt 39% could be bothered to get off their arse and vote for May. The 45% would come out though.
47-37 I reckon.
May will stay PM for now but a new leader would likely be leading the Tories at any future election having dumped the dementia tax and maybe restored free school lunches so all polls now on voting intention are rather pointless given we have just had a general election
Well my morning thread has been written, if you're Theresa May or a friend/fan of her, you might want to give it a miss.
Do fans exist? If she enters formal coalition with DUP or gives them very much I would struggle to support the Tories. Surely she's been told now that the DUP are not the UUP. She seemed confused earlier
The UUP would have been much much much better for the Tories. Unfortunately not an option, as there are none
It doesn't really matter. All the Tories have to do is pass a QS. Then, in three months time, they will be 10% ahead in the polls. When people see the reality of what the EU plans for us in Brexit, it will be impossible to maintain the line that somehow we can have no FOM but a free trade deal and that 'no deal' is something that can be avoided just because we don't want it. The choice will be abject capitulation or no deal, and the UK public will get behind any PM who tells the EU to get stuffed.
BBC news at 1.00am says that the DUP have released a statement in the last hour confirming positive talks with the government. At the same time Vince Cable said that due to their influence for a soft Brexit he feels the deal will work and endorses Theresa May to stay in office
YouGov finds for the first time, Corbyn has drawn level with Mrs May on who would make the best Prime Minister
He really is crap if he's not ahead now!
Give it a week, he will be.
I think the only person capable of stopping the Corbyn juggernaut heading into number 10 is Ruth Davidson, and even then I have my doubts.
I think Cameron's and May's antics in playing politics with elections has well and truly fucked the Tories for a generation......and laid the bedrock for a left wing, populist revolution...
A "generation" implies, what 20-25 years? Corbyn and the extreme left won't be in power that long. They might make two terms though (10 years) I assume term one will be fairly modest (by their standards) term two they'll let rip with very extreme marxism (they won't be able to help themselves) and will be out after their second term.
Still 10 years of extreme left wing ideology will do immense damage...
OK...but it's going to be a long time before the Tories look capable of winning a GE......from 1993-2007 they were out of the game....
they will be behind the polls in my opinion for a similar amount of time unless they go for Davidson...
Nah. It will only take 1 term of Corbynomics and the Left will be so discredited it will take another 40 years for them to get back into power just like last time (Blair was not left wing) .
I bet the DUP have never had so much FUN as they're having now.
The Tories are dancing to Arlene's tune now.
The DUP are a bunch of miserable proddie racist, homophobic, creationist, sectarian, climate change denying, zealous, bible bashing, ugly (I mean really fucking aesthetically ugly) bastards.....
I cannot even being to imagine what their idea of fun is....I really cannot.....
Agreed. But please don't use the P-word. It is the kind of language I was brought up with. It is their views, not their means of worship, which is entirely unacceptable in the modern UK.
Translation: The DUP takes note of the latest Survation poll, and notes that we have the Tories over an even bigger pork barrel than first thought. We'll make their lives a living hell whilst we utterly toxify the Tories so they can't possibly win an election, after all they wouldn't want that Mr Corbyn in now would they.
She took the electorate for granted and lost.
She took the DUP for granted with a similar result.
I think she's still taking the Tory party for granted.
More importantly look at those numbers for Brexit. Puts the lie to all those claiming Brexit should be abandoned.
No they don't. The number explicitly supporting a second referendum is up around 10%. The trend is diminishing support for Brexit.
The crucial poll will be YouGov because they've had consistent methodology and shown that the country has remained divided. If it now shows a shift to Remain then the writing is on the wall.
Excluding don't knows the number saying they don't want a second referendum is 60%. That is substantially higher than the number who actually voted Leave. We are leaving. Get used to it.
Those who want a second referendum will almost all want to vote Remain. Those who don't want a second referendum will have a huge variety of views.
The chances of a second referendum went when the LDs made only 4 net gains and Clegg lost his seat, even Corbyn backs Brexit though it may now be fudged Brexit rather than hard Brexit
Not necessarily. If Labour reaches the point where the MPs feel able to express their own views, almost all opposed to Brexit, perhaps in a scenario where public opinion has started to turn, they will still be left with their earlier support for A50 based on "respecting the referendum". The way out of this impasse for them is to have a second referendum to trump the first. This would also make it easier for parliament to reject the Tories' final Brexit deal, contingent in putting the final deal to the people.
In either scenario there are enough remainer Tories, particularly after the election, to provide the necessary parliamentary majority.
If Labour dump Brexit completely or back a second referendum as the LDs did they will lose the 15-20% of 2015 UKIP voters who voted for Corbyn in the blink of an eye!
Well my morning thread has been written, if you're Theresa May or a friend/fan of her, you might want to give it a miss.
Do fans exist? If she enters formal coalition with DUP or gives them very much I would struggle to support the Tories. Surely she's been told now that the DUP are not the UUP. She seemed confused earlier
The UUP would have been much much much better for the Tories. Unfortunately not an option, as there are none
It's not the DUP's fault that the UUP are a little crap
Well my morning thread has been written, if you're Theresa May or a friend/fan of her, you might want to give it a miss.
Do fans exist? If she enters formal coalition with DUP or gives them very much I would struggle to support the Tories. Surely she's been told now that the DUP are not the UUP. She seemed confused earlier
The UUP would have been much much much better for the Tories. Unfortunately not an option, as there are none
You really don't have to remind me! I struggled to drive home.
But the DUP position is much weaker than people realise. They cannot fight another election. They hold three seats in Belfast and will want to keep them for five years. Another election in October will if I'm right give SF that position. They have to avoid overplaying their hand.
Labour need to urgently get their best talent back in the Shadow Cabinet, and fine-tune parts of their manifesto to make sure all the sums really do "add up" and that everything is workable. The next election is Labour's for the taking, and it could well be coming very soon.
Cheers - as @dixiedean says down-thread: "This shit has just got real"!!!
YouGov finds for the first time, Corbyn has drawn level with Mrs May on who would make the best Prime Minister
He really is crap if he's not ahead now!
Give it a week, he will be.
I think the only person capable of stopping the Corbyn juggernaut heading into number 10 is Ruth Davidson, and even then I have my doubts.
I think Cameron's and May's antics in playing politics with elections has well and truly fucked the Tories for a generation......and laid the bedrock for a left wing, populist revolution...
A "generation" implies, what 20-25 years? Corbyn and the extreme left won't be in power that long. They might make two terms though (10 years) I assume term one will be fairly modest (by their standards) term two they'll let rip with very extreme marxism (they won't be able to help themselves) and will be out after their second term.
Still 10 years of extreme left wing ideology will do immense damage...
OK...but it's going to be a long time before the Tories look capable of winning a GE......from 1993-2007 they were out of the game....
they will be behind the polls in my opinion for a similar amount of time unless they go for Davidson...
Nah. It will only take 1 term of Corbynomics and the Left will be so discredited it will take another 40 years for them to get back into power just like last time (Blair was not left wing) .
I think a decade (two terms) is more likely. My hunch is that in the first term Jezza and Johnny Mac would be fairly reasonable (by their standards) but if they got a second term they would go crazy and would be out at any subsequent election.
So the voters don't like either option they gave the parties when they voted for a hung parliament
The question is also misleading. For there to be a coalition with Labour it has to include the support of the DUP. As it stands no viable majority exists without the support of the DUP (and that is not me advocating such an agreement by either the Tories or Labour. I most certainly am not)
Well my morning thread has been written, if you're Theresa May or a friend/fan of her, you might want to give it a miss.
Do fans exist? If she enters formal coalition with DUP or gives them very much I would struggle to support the Tories. Surely she's been told now that the DUP are not the UUP. She seemed confused earlier
The UUP would have been much much much better for the Tories. Unfortunately not an option, as there are none
You really don't have to remind me! I struggled to drive home.
But the DUP position is much weaker than people realise. They cannot fight another election. They hold three seats in Belfast and will want to keep them for five years. Another election in October will if I'm right give SF that position. They have to avoid overplaying their hand.
Shall we talk about something positive instead?
England knocked Australia out of the champions trophy.
Well my morning thread has been written, if you're Theresa May or a friend/fan of her, you might want to give it a miss.
Do fans exist? If she enters formal coalition with DUP or gives them very much I would struggle to support the Tories. Surely she's been told now that the DUP are not the UUP. She seemed confused earlier
The UUP would have been much much much better for the Tories. Unfortunately not an option, as there are none
You really don't have to remind me! I struggled to drive home.
But the DUP position is much weaker than people realise. They cannot fight another election. They hold three seats in Belfast and will want to keep them for five years. Another election in October will if I'm right give SF that position. They have to avoid overplaying their hand.
I think their hand is stronger than the Tories though, and they'll probably play it better too. This is a dream scenario for the DUP right now !
The Conservative Party. The party of individual responsibility, treating people like adults and holding them to account for their own decisions.
"It's not my fault! A big European stole it an' ran away!" - Theresa May, aged 60 3/4.
Tell me that's a spoof. Theresa May called the "Brexit Means Brexit" election on instructions from Brussels.
But if it was on Juncker's advice that she did this why say in the speech when she called the vote that the EU was deliberately interfering in our election and making threats?
'Theresa May accuses EU of trying to 'deliberately' interfere in election'
Well my morning thread has been written, if you're Theresa May or a friend/fan of her, you might want to give it a miss.
Do fans exist? If she enters formal coalition with DUP or gives them very much I would struggle to support the Tories. Surely she's been told now that the DUP are not the UUP. She seemed confused earlier
The UUP would have been much much much better for the Tories. Unfortunately not an option, as there are none
You really don't have to remind me! I struggled to drive home.
But the DUP position is much weaker than people realise. They cannot fight another election. They hold three seats in Belfast and will want to keep them for five years. Another election in October will if I'm right give SF that position. They have to avoid overplaying their hand.
Shall we talk about something positive instead?
England knocked Australia out of the champions trophy.
I think under the terms of the Con/DUP agreement, you have to say "England (a constituent part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland)".
How are people doing on the Labour next leader market?
Well I'm glad I've been laying David Miliband and I'm actually feeling positive about my Richard Burgon, Diane Abbott, and Rebecca Long-Bailey* bets
*Can we not talk about he Rebecca Long-Bailey bet, it brings back bad memories.
I just remembered that I still have a bet on Stephen Kinnock at 20/1.
Heh Next Labour leader will take years to pay out now. 2023 when Corbyn passes over to his succesor for Labour's second term.
In the nightmare scenario of a Corbyn government where McDonnell may well have just had to take a bailout from the IMF we will be a long way from the fiscally prudent early years of the last Labour government under Blair and Brown when Labour really could count on big poll leads for a full 5 year term and guaranteed re election
Does anyone really believe Lab are on 45%!!!!!!!!!!
A slightly different question is "who does it matter to, that Lab are on 45%?"
Improved poll ratings render Corbyn impervious to another leadership challenge from the PLP ... but they clearly aren't about to launch one. The election result has seen to that already.
Rubbish poll ratings render May unlikely to seek a Brexit negotiation postponement (which the EU would likely be amenable to) and launch a second snap GE ... but she clearly isn't about to anyway. The election result has seen to that already.
Might it encourage May to step down? Analysis of new information, and responding to it, doesn't really seem to be her "thing". Besides, with Timothy and Hill gone, who will do her thinking for her? (I'm channeling TSE in this paragraph. More seriously, she seems committed to the job, at least for now, even if she ultimately has a changeover period in mind in the next few months.)
Might it embolden a challenger to May? Will her cabinet or parliamentary party use it as a big stick to beat her with, to get her to hand over sooner? To me this seems the most important practical implication of new polling results. But we have just seen how an exercise in over-eager response to opinion polls can work out with somewhat sub-optimal results. Moreover, whoever takes over now is facing such a difficult task that their honeymoon is likely to be exceptionally brief - no matter what telegenic talisman the Tories can muster, provided Labour avoid another self-imposed implosion I'd expect any new leader to trail Corbyn in the polls in short order.
The last paragraph suggests that Mr Meeks had a good point in his thread about the advantages of May staying on a while.
Labour need to urgently get their best talent back in the Shadow Cabinet, and fine-tune parts of their manifesto to make sure all the sums really do "add up" and that everything is workable. The next election is Labour's for the taking, and it could well be coming very soon.
Cheers - as @dixiedean says down-thread: "This shit has just got real"!!!
Didn't I meet you at the PB drinks? Or was that another "Dixie"????
There is a female Dixie on here. I am not her. Dixiedean is a nicckname I have had since Primary school. I was the only Evertonian and a notoriously unuccessful centre-forward. Had I known there was another one I would have changed my user name. As I had already used it I felt it was unfair, as I do not approve of multiple user names, etc. Sorry for the confusion.
YouGov finds for the first time, Corbyn has drawn level with Mrs May on who would make the best Prime Minister
He really is crap if he's not ahead now!
Give it a week, he will be.
I think the only person capable of stopping the Corbyn juggernaut heading into number 10 is Ruth Davidson, and even then I have my doubts.
I think Cameron's and May's antics in playing politics with elections has well and truly fucked the Tories for a generation......and laid the bedrock for a left wing, populist revolution...
A "generation" implies, what 20-25 years? Corbyn and the extreme left won't be in power that long. They might make two terms though (10 years) I assume term one will be fairly modest (by their standards) term two they'll let rip with very extreme marxism (they won't be able to help themselves) and will be out after their second term.
Still 10 years of extreme left wing ideology will do immense damage...
OK...but it's going to be a long time before the Tories look capable of winning a GE......from 1993-2007 they were out of the game....
they will be behind the polls in my opinion for a similar amount of time unless they go for Davidson...
Nah. It will only take 1 term of Corbynomics and the Left will be so discredited it will take another 40 years for them to get back into power just like last time (Blair was not left wing) .
Indeed, it should be noted that all age groups over 45 voted Tory, you have to be 38 to even have been born at the time of the last vaguely leftwing Labour government, the 1974-1979 Wilson Callaghan administration which led to the Winter of Discontent and Corbyn is left of Wilson and Callaghan
Comments
So, I am making arrangements now to protect some of my assets and I'll pay the rest when it comes because I can and because that is fair....
The great tsunami over the SNP vote in 2015 receded quite a bit on Thursday and it does not need to drop much further for them to back to being the 4th party at Westminster.
If Labour get close then the arithmetic could end up similar to the CON/DUP scenario where a party of 10 or so MPs have a lot more influence than a party of 35 or 56.
In either scenario there are enough remainer Tories, particularly after the election, to provide the necessary parliamentary majority.
"Shit just got real!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvqJ1mTkEuY
The only Tory capable of halting him is Ruth Davidson....and even then I doubt it......
If the Tories ever thought the first deal would stick then they truly are naive.
Try avoiding playing the man and the ball.
Re "What makes the British incapable of operating a decent state" - I do wonder whether our perceptions about the quality of state services rendered to our continental cousins are biased. There are lots of information filters between there and here. I wouldn't know how to work out from first principles the manner in which those filters act, but the grass is greener on the other side is a proverb for a reason. We do occasionally see articles indicating things aren't necessarily much better over there either (the BBC did a piece on the German healthcare system recently, payoff of it being "we're paying rather more than the British do, but our results are similar to theirs", and the Guardian one on German infrastructure failings - a naff railway system, eternal holdups on their shiny new airport, Cologne's archive being destroyed by a tunnel collapse) but the mood music is generally to the contrary.
Are there even decent international comparisons of care quality? I'm sure there are stats on costs, staffing ratios and so on, but two care homes can look very similar on such metrics yet be night-and-day apart. Would be great if someone had done extensive CQC-style inspections so a meaningful comparison could be drawn.
Still 10 years of extreme left wing ideology will do immense damage...
I think the party is in rude health with such an influx.
The Tories are dancing to Arlene's tune now.
"It's not my fault! A big European stole it an' ran away!" - Theresa May, aged 60 3/4.
47-37 I reckon.
I cannot even being to imagine what their idea of fun is....I really cannot.....
All looks worse in retrospect of course. A lot of what we graft to learn is there to purchase us a real option that we may or may not end up exercising. And even though we don't end up exercising it, in this uncertain world, it may well still have been good value to acquire at the time. Still, buyer's -
gambler's - regret.
Part of the problem is that, for most of their history, these illnesses were viewed by medics as natural consequences of ageing (which they are not). This has placed them politically outside the ambit of healthcare.
Does anyone really believe Lab are on 45%!!!!!!!!!!
Once May is ousted and the new Con leader is in place it will be interesting to see where the parties are....
they will be behind the polls in my opinion for a similar amount of time unless they go for Davidson...
Given what happened on Thursday, it's a bit soon to be dismissing Survation polls out of hand, isn't it?
Translation:
The DUP takes note of the latest Survation poll, and notes that we have the Tories over an even bigger pork barrel than first thought.
We'll make their lives a living hell whilst we utterly toxify the Tories so they can't possibly win an election, after all they wouldn't want that Mr Corbyn in now would they.
That won't be the case with a Corbyn-led Labour government. Give it a couple of years and everyone on the center right will be flocking to the Tories... Although like I said Jezza might do a decade depending on how big his first majority is.
As far as Ruth is concerned I can tell you that in my particular part of the Shires she is very unpopular with natural Con elderly voters for the part she played in attempting to steal the WFA from elderly pensioners in England to pay for the WFA for Scottish pensioners (I realize this is unfair but that was the perception)
I think she'd struggle as much as May with Pensioners down South,
My post was aimed at the Anyone believe Labour are on 25/30/35/38 posters on here
She took the DUP for granted with a similar result.
I think she's still taking the Tory party for granted.
But the DUP position is much weaker than people realise. They cannot fight another election. They hold three seats in Belfast and will want to keep them for five years. Another election in October will if I'm right give SF that position. They have to avoid overplaying their hand.
England knocked Australia out of the champions trophy.
It was awesome.
'Theresa May accuses EU of trying to 'deliberately' interfere in election'
Home
Don't tell Mrs BJ
Soon as the exit poll came out - Comment of the election
Improved poll ratings render Corbyn impervious to another leadership challenge from the PLP ... but they clearly aren't about to launch one. The election result has seen to that already.
Rubbish poll ratings render May unlikely to seek a Brexit negotiation postponement (which the EU would likely be amenable to) and launch a second snap GE ... but she clearly isn't about to anyway. The election result has seen to that already.
Might it encourage May to step down? Analysis of new information, and responding to it, doesn't really seem to be her "thing". Besides, with Timothy and Hill gone, who will do her thinking for her? (I'm channeling TSE in this paragraph. More seriously, she seems committed to the job, at least for now, even if she ultimately has a changeover period in mind in the next few months.)
Might it embolden a challenger to May? Will her cabinet or parliamentary party use it as a big stick to beat her with, to get her to hand over sooner? To me this seems the most important practical implication of new polling results. But we have just seen how an exercise in over-eager response to opinion polls can work out with somewhat sub-optimal results. Moreover, whoever takes over now is facing such a difficult task that their honeymoon is likely to be exceptionally brief - no matter what telegenic talisman the Tories can muster, provided Labour avoid another self-imposed implosion I'd expect any new leader to trail Corbyn in the polls in short order.
The last paragraph suggests that Mr Meeks had a good point in his thread about the advantages of May staying on a while.