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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The BES polling chart that surely means that GE2017 was TMay’s

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    surbiton said:
    I think it says in the second paragraph of the article :)
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,830

    Well, we've always known that 50% of the electorate are below average intelligence.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/892397427868749824

    Leaving aside pedantry,
    "50% of the electorate are below average intelligence."
    is pretty much a definition of 'average'.

    Still you have to admire Corbyn for managing to scam so many people.
    It is the ABs and C1s voting Labour.

    It is the unskilled C2s, Ds and Es voting Conservative.

    Conservatives seem to have lost the professional classes to Labour.

    Teachers, police, civil servants, local council workers, health profesionals now all voting Labour?
    A lot depends where you live. Professional people in London, core cities, university cities, Edinburgh or Glasgow vote Left. Professional people in the Home Counties, small cities, and large towns vote Right.

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,202

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FF43 said:

    I kind of wonder if we unprotect those incomes, which are substantially underwritten by the diminishing pay packets of the next generation, whether the older generation would be quite so sanguine about making financial sacrifices for Brexit.
    The old have shafted the young in many ways, not just Brexit and Pensions. But maybe some good will come of it. It may even teach the lazy f*ckers to vote.
    Let's get some perspective here: when I was growing up neither I nor my parents had anything like the sorts of luxuries or spending money which so many now seem to take for

    TBF to the younger generation, they might as well spend it as they get it. If they save it some bright spark somewhere will want it taxed to pay off student loans or fund pension black holes.

    The easiest way to stop the oldsters getting their hands on it is to spend it now. If I was in my 20s at this point in time, I would probably be no different.
    Taxes were also much higher when I was growing up.

    People cannot have everything they want. The more you spend on "nice to haves" the less you have available for the "must haves". House prices in London are barmy. But my nephews and nieces outside the South East have jobs and mortgages and babies and all without inheriting a penny. As ever London and the South East does not represent the whole country.

    Regardless of which generation we're in, if we want more of one thing (whether public services or pensions or houses or whatever) we're going to have to go without other nice things (walking rather than taxis etc).
    I think direct taxes were higher, but the overall taxburden is unchanged because indirect taxes have risen, and large areas of reliefs ended. MIRAS is the obvious one.

    The increase in age at first house purchase, and related markers indicates that the young are not financially flourishing, but the elderly are. Sure, standards have risen insome areas, but so has insecurity.
    Some of the elderly are flourishing. Many others not so much. The average pension pot is pretty low, certainly not enough to give anyone a "flourishing" lifestyle. Annuity rates are low. Interest rates on savings are on the floor. Let's not assume that all the elderly are rich so and so's going on cruises and spending their kids' inheritances.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited August 2017
    Cyclefree said:


    Taxes were also much higher when I was growing up.
    I think direct taxes were higher, but the overall taxburden is unchanged because indirect taxes have risen, and large areas of reliefs ended. MIRAS is the obvious one.

    The increase in age at first house purchase, and related markers indicates that the young are not financially flourishing, but the elderly are. Sure, standards have risen insome areas, but so has insecurity.

    Some of the elderly are flourishing. Many others not so much. The average pension pot is pretty low, certainly not enough to give anyone a "flourishing" lifestyle. Annuity rates are low. Interest rates on savings are on the floor. Let's not assume that all the elderly are rich so and so's going on cruises and spending their kids' inheritances.
    My pensions were looking very healthy until Gordon Brown turned them into financial disasters. Combined with low annuity rates it makes little sense for me to cash them in in the traditional way so I will take them as cash over the next few years and make my own investments.

    The kids already have received their inheritances to give them a good start in life and they are looking at flats rather than houses. They show no desire to migrate to London and the South East - indeed, my neighbour's daughter's family has just migrated from the South East back to the North West to a bigger house and a much smaller mortgage.
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    Alice_AforethoughtAlice_Aforethought Posts: 772
    edited August 2017
    Blimey
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/01/aa-shares-dive-executive-chairman-bob-mackenzie-dismissed-gross/
    £200m wiped off AA's value as executive chairman Bob Mackenzie is dismissed for gross misconduct

    Is it me or is there a lot of innuendo going on in that write up?
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    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Mortimer said:

    So a majority of Leavers are maniacs who would prefer to see the country impoverished and people out of work than see it prosper in the EU. And they wonder why I'm so pessimistic about Britain's prospects for the foreseeable future.

    Lattes are less important than liberty. Who'd have guessed?

    Oh, wait....
    The EU is on the side of liberty. Freedom of Movement, and of work, capital and trade are all personal liberties the EU protects and Brexiteers want to restrict.
    Freedom of trade? Well, it's a view.
    Yes. There's not a shadow of doubt Britain will have less trade after Brexit because of freedoms to trade that have been lost.
    The EU is incredibly protectionist. Saying it believes in freedom of trade is risible.
    The EU is protectionist.

    But there's a big but.

    Look at the US. It has free trade agreements with Mexico, Canada, Australia, Israel and South Korea. And that's about it.

    Or what about China. It has FTAs with South Korea, ASEAN, Pakistan, Australia, and a few others places.

    The Mercosur states have about half a dozen FTAs. Likewise the ASEAN ones. India and Japan have about five or six each. Russia has virtually nothing outside its customs union.

    The EU, on the other hand, has FTAs with Canada, Mexico, large chunks of LatAm, South Korea, the EFTA states, Turkey, much of North Africa, Israel, South Africa and the Ukraine. It will also soon have an FTA with Japan.

    Where the EU is very protectionist is food, and in particular protecting French farmers. But it's hard to argue that it's any worse than any other big trading block.
    This is correct. I would add two points. The key Brexit point is that the EU is completely unprotectionist to its members. That's the freedom of trade we're losing. It's also worth pointing out that our peers going forward, EFTA countries and Japan, are all more protectionist again than the EU on agriculture specifically, as well generally.
    EFTA countries are far more free market than the EU in general. They have more FTA's than the EU and are far more able to take up new FTAs in a shorter timescale than the EU. As an example they had an FTA with Canada 9 years before the EU and are also in the process of looking at, updating and expanding their existing FTAs as partners allow.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,974
    SeanT said:

    JUST BEFORE I DIED

    First line of new book?
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    The June election is actually a very good result for the Tories long term because it means that the far left will now fully control the Labour party apparatus at the time of the next GE. That means no change when the Tories win. And that means the Tories will never lose. If May had been a better candidate Labour might have become more electable longer term. Now they never will be. Mrs May should be lauded as a Tory hero.

    The June election is actually a very good result for the Tories long term because it means that the far left will now fully control the Labour party apparatus at the time of the next GE. That means no change when the Tories win. And that means the Tories will never lose. If May had been a better candidate Labour might have become more electable longer term. Now they never will be. Mrs May should be lauded as a Tory hero.

    So a majority of Leavers are maniacs who would prefer to see the country impoverished and people out of work than see it prosper in the EU. And they wonder why I'm so pessimistic about Britain's prospects for the foreseeable future.

    They've been misled.

    And they'll change their minds when they lose their own job.

    So a majority of Leavers are maniacs who would prefer to see the country impoverished and people out of work than see it prosper in the EU. And they wonder why I'm so pessimistic about Britain's prospects for the foreseeable future.

    They've been misled.

    And they'll change their minds when they lose their own job.
    Most people with jobs voted to remain. Leaving is popular with people who don't work.

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    surbiton said:
    Article 127 of the EEA Agreement. There is a movement that has been going for quite some time claiming that even if we left the EU we would still remain members of the EEA. It runs counter to the basic interpretation of the EEA agreement as EEA membership is predicated on being a member of either the EU or EFTA. The Single Market Justice campaign claims that we can be a member of neither and still remain in the EEA.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    JUST BEFORE I DIED

    First line of new book?
    Title.

    So how are we all? Anything happened? Is it all endless Brexit?

    I am enjoying my apolitical new life, but I confess I do occasionally miss PB.
    Lots of global warming last week here. Lots of hot air...
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,974

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    JUST BEFORE I DIED

    First line of new book?
    Title.

    So how are we all? Anything happened? Is it all endless Brexit?

    I am enjoying my apolitical new life, but I confess I do occasionally miss PB.
    Lots of global warming last week here. Lots of hot air...
    And it's very quiet.
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