RIght lets hope interest rates stay at 0.25% today for the FTBs for my house x - They'll be applying about now.
Grandson One and his fiancée have just, after solicitors messing about since April, moved into their first house. Mortgage seems horrendous, although they seem relaxed about it. Both teachers, so presumably jobs are reasonably secure.
Best of luck with your purchasers, Mr P.
My house is roughly the same size as @Casino_Royale's but worth around a third of the value ! Mind you my onward purchase is such a bargain I daren't post it up here
Are you/going to be outside the SE of England?
Yep. East Mids.
Sounds like a good idea. Prices round here (N Essex) are going crazy. Two-bed bungalow, £400k. similar but without parking £350k.
The SE/rest divide is growing bigger more or less by the day.
One of the most surreal moments on here was when a poster told me that the dementia tax would be unpopular with Northern voters because they wouldn't want to lose all the equity in their £450,000 ex-council three bed semi.
What was really surreal was that he meant it.
450k 3 bed ex-council 3 bed semi ? Tatton or Harrogate perhaps, can't think where else in the north that would apply..
The British state is steaming towards its third disaster in 15 years, after the Iraq war and the financial crisis.
Yes. And here is Brexit summed up in two sentences ....
"This generation of mostly former public schoolboys didn’t want Brussels running Britain. That was their caste’s prerogative."
Total bollox to suggest a correlation between Brexit and public schools - Cameron/Osborne/TSE trip off the keyboard instantly and there were many more.
On topic, both Labour and the Conservatives have decided that they won enough in June to making revisiting the leadership unnecessary for now. Both are wrong.
I have been wondering if Labour's result could be compared to Dunkirk:
Answer: no!
Dunkirk was an existential crisis for the country and (probably) Europe too - very hard to exaggerate it's significance or the sacrifices of so many. 2017 GE, was just a minor feck-up where LAbour did a better and the Tories worse than most expected.
(Apols, I appreciate I am taking your post too seriously but seeing the film last week made a deep impresion on my perception of Dunkirk. Any attempt to parallel it into Con/Lab or Brexit terms is at risk of diminishing Dunkirk.)
Have you ever seen the original? That's a very interesting film with a strong cast if a bit stodgy in places.
In answer to your second paragraph, while it was an astonishing and brilliant moment that deserves to be feted, do not overestimate its importance. Dunkirk, whichever way it had gone, was not likely to be an existential threat to either Britain or Europe. Films often do somewhat exaggerate the importance of the events they are portraying because it's often very difficult to simplify highly complex historical chains of causality into one short film (The Dam Busters springs to mind).
Very remarkable though the rescue of the BEF was, it was years before it was in a position to do any actual fighting again due to the loss of so much of its equipment. While it could form the core of a new army, it was Britain's other land forces - in India, in North Africa - that bore the brunt of such infantry campaigning as there was for the next few years.
The crucial element in Hitler's defeat on land was his defeat in Russia (as another slightly undersized egomaniac with rumoured problems with his sex organs who was not a native of the country he was ruling found out the hard way 130 years before). And that of course would probably have happened regardless of the outcome of Dunkirk.
However, it is also worth pointing out that by September 1940, after Halifax's wobble on the subject and his subsequent replacement by Eden, there was never any real danger of Britain being defeated. It was simply too big, too economically powerful and too well protected for the Wehrmacht to overcome. There was the possibility of a negotiated peace, but not one where the Germans dictated all the terms (as they did to the French). Once the USA and USSR had joined in as well in 1941, the resources facing Germany were immense and the ultimate outcome was never in actual doubt.
I absolutely agree that more should try their hand at header writing. It's a bracing experience.
On your other points: I don't think there's any problem in commenting on your own thread if you are asked direct questions by commenters or once everyone else has had a fair chance to say their piece.
Headers can provoke but they must also inform. Great provocation requires great information. (Equally, posters who are greatly provoked should always consider whether the problem is theirs rather than the header writer's, and what information has been given along with the provocation.)
One of the pleasures of writing headers is sneaking in cultural references and seeing whether they are spotted.
I think where TSE is concerned, the more blatant the reference and the more it references Ms Minogue the better all round.
I was concerned my piece was by definition London-centric and some of the regulars make a point of saying they don't live in "that London". Fine - the truth is the London local and Mayoral contests (though in the case of Newham contest is probably overstating it) will be reported as being of national relevance and the Conservatives still hold 21 seats in the capital - no one is saying that London will follow Liverpool and Manchester and eliminate all Conservative MPs but it may become more like Birmingham with the Conservatives reduced to the leafiest fringes)
21seats is a pretty good result, for finishing up 22% behind Labour. In 1997, the Conservatives were 18% behind Labour, and reduced to 11 seats.
But, Greater London Conservatives seem destined to become like New York Republicans, capable of winning here and there, but operating in an overwhelmingly left wing environment.
London is full of immigrants and foreign nationals who get a vote in local elections.
Immigrants and foreign nationals have traditionally been left wing.
RIght lets hope interest rates stay at 0.25% today for the FTBs for my house x - They'll be applying about now.
Grandson One and his fiancée have just, after solicitors messing about since April, moved into their first house. Mortgage seems horrendous, although they seem relaxed about it. Both teachers, so presumably jobs are reasonably secure.
Best of luck with your purchasers, Mr P.
My house is roughly the same size as @Casino_Royale's but worth around a third of the value ! Mind you my onward purchase is such a bargain I daren't post it up here
Are you/going to be outside the SE of England?
Yep. East Mids.
Sounds like a good idea. Prices round here (N Essex) are going crazy. Two-bed bungalow, £400k. similar but without parking £350k.
The SE/rest divide is growing bigger more or less by the day.
One of the most surreal moments on here was when a poster told me that the dementia tax would be unpopular with Northern voters because they wouldn't want to lose all the equity in their £450,000 ex-council three bed semi.
What was really surreal was that he meant it.
450k 3 bed ex-council 3 bed semi ? Tatton or Harrogate perhaps, can't think where else in the north that would apply..
Which was my point. The poster in question - can't remember who it was - positively refused to believe me when I said I bought my house (which exactly matches that description) for £123,000. You can get similar houses in the Stroud area for under £200,000. But because they go for silly money in the Home Counties...
(Doesn't even apply in Harrogate apparently - quick search on Zoopla suggests this is about typical:
I challenge anyone to read this through - without prejudice due to the name of the author - and not think it's a sensible and pragmatic approach to leaving the EU.
Trump isn't likely to be a good president. On that we agree. He could learn by listening to wiser counsel - we can only hope so. However , some of the criticism verges on the hysterical, because it concerns his uncouth manner rather than the crime. And being uncouth will make him a special target for some.
I'd be interested in what the Russians thought they had on Hillary. it wouldn't be her table manners.
I do agree he has challenged, if not shattered, some of what we had previously considered the normal practices for a head of Government.
That being said, he is more a reversion to how things were done a while ago. The promotion of friends and family (being the only ones that could be trusted) and the by-passing of the traditional Government machine have been seen before. It is the mark of the populist outsider who is deeply distrusting of Government and prefers instead to have less experienced but more personally "known" people to deal with.
Oddly enough, I see shades (but only shades) of how the Third Reich functioned as a Government in Trump's behaviour. I'm not for a nanosecond suggesting any ideological similarities but the practice of moving favour from person to person and keeping everyone off balance and vying for that favour is basically how the Reich operated in Government.
Washington isn't going to play those games and as the GOP has failed to control Trump, the military (in the shape of Kelly and McMaster) have taken over. The one area where Trump lacks influence is with the military in terms of not having within his immediate circle a military man so he has had to go beyond and Kelly has come in to restore order to the West Wing and McMaster has slowly edged out the Trump sycophants and now runs the NSC in a much more organised way.
Again, oddly enough, in the day to day functioning of Government, Trump is becoming largely irrelevant and we're seeing the evolution of a more technocratic administration which will, I think, serve America and the world well in the months to come.
RIght lets hope interest rates stay at 0.25% today for the FTBs for my house x - They'll be applying about now.
Oooh - naked self-interest - can't say I blame you! Might rattle a few wrinkly PB tories' cages though.
In a nutshell you have illustrated why the Left is only turned to in extremis when the Right is blowing off its feet with a 12-bore. No idea whatsoever of what makes humans tick.
Regurgitated quinoa and kum-bay-ah around the fire-pit after a day protesting against the Tories right?
Ah yes, you certainly have nailed what makes progressives like me tick, well done.
Meanwhile, if anyone is interested in sensible discussion, let me know
Just passed a UNITE demonstration with placards saying: we all need a pay rise.
I really struggle to understand this assumption that asking people to vote again would result in the "correct" outcome.
Comes from that "resistance is futile" school of Borg/Remain thought that membership of the EU is inevitable?
OK - let us assume that a second referendum was held and that LEAVE won by a bigger margin than last time, then all us Remainers would have absolutely no defence whatsoever. The first result be have been shown to be more than a wafer-thin majority that could have gone either way. We would be forced to accept the result.
We get told repeatedly that the public want us to get on with Leaving so what are Leavers worried about? They are so sure then they have absolutely nothing to lose.
If, on the other hand, REMAIN wins by more than a wafer-thin majority then democracy has spoken and Leavers keep telling us that democracy must be respected. If we win playing by LEAVE's rules then can you complain about that?
(For the avoidance of doubt I think that the Winning Line in the referendum should be set at just more than the last result - say 52% - so Remain has to do better than Leave did last time, else they lose)
I absolutely agree that more should try their hand at header writing. It's a bracing experience.
On your other points: I don't think there's any problem in commenting on your own thread if you are asked direct questions by commenters or once everyone else has had a fair chance to say their piece.
Headers can provoke but they must also inform. Great provocation requires great information. (Equally, posters who are greatly provoked should always consider whether the problem is theirs rather than the header writer's, and what information has been given along with the provocation.)
One of the pleasures of writing headers is sneaking in cultural references and seeing whether they are spotted.
I think where TSE is concerned, the more blatant the reference and the more it references Ms Minogue the better all round.
I was concerned my piece was by definition London-centric and some of the regulars make a point of saying they don't live in "that London". Fine - the truth is the London local and Mayoral contests (though in the case of Newham contest is probably overstating it) will be reported as being of national relevance and the Conservatives still hold 21 seats in the capital - no one is saying that London will follow Liverpool and Manchester and eliminate all Conservative MPs but it may become more like Birmingham with the Conservatives reduced to the leafiest fringes)
21seats is a pretty good result, for finishing up 22% behind Labour. In 1997, the Conservatives were 18% behind Labour, and reduced to 11 seats.
But, Greater London Conservatives seem destined to become like New York Republicans, capable of winning here and there, but operating in an overwhelmingly left wing environment.
London is full of immigrants and foreign nationals who get a vote in local elections.
Immigrants and foreign nationals have traditionally been left wing.
So London votes left wing in local elections.
But London has become more left-wing very rapidly. Labour won a 6% higher vote share in London in 2017 than it won in 1997, whereas overall, it was 3% lower. The Conservatives won just 2% more in London than in 1997, compared to an overall rise of 13%.
Trump isn't likely to be a good president. On that we agree. He could learn by listening to wiser counsel - we can only hope so. However , some of the criticism verges on the hysterical, because it concerns his uncouth manner rather than the crime. And being uncouth will make him a special target for some.
I'd be interested in what the Russians thought they had on Hillary. it wouldn't be her table manners.
I do agree he has challenged, if not shattered, some of what we had previously considered the normal practices for a head of Government.
That being said, he is more a reversion to how things were done a while ago. The promotion of friends and family (being the only ones that could be trusted) and the by-passing of the traditional Government machine have been seen before. It is the mark of the populist outsider who is deeply distrusting of Government and prefers instead to have less experienced but more personally "known" people to deal with.
Oddly enough, I see shades (but only shades) of how the Third Reich functioned as a Government in Trump's behaviour. I'm not for a nanosecond suggesting any ideological similarities but the practice of moving favour from person to person and keeping everyone off balance and vying for that favour is basically how the Reich operated in Government.
Washington isn't going to play those games and as the GOP has failed to control Trump, the military (in the shape of Kelly and McMaster) have taken over. The one area where Trump lacks influence is with the military in terms of not having within his immediate circle a military man so he has had to go beyond and Kelly has come in to restore order to the West Wing and McMaster has slowly edged out the Trump sycophants and now runs the NSC in a much more organised way.
Again, oddly enough, in the day to day functioning of Government, Trump is becoming largely irrelevant and we're seeing the evolution of a more technocratic administration which will, I think, serve America and the world well in the months to come.
Obviously it can be ignored because it is part of the Mainstream Media. In any case I doubt that Trump would even be able to make the trains run on time.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
Do you envisage this referendum taking place during the transition period where not much (or nothing at all) will have changed except losing our role in the political institutions of the EU?
"Could May, who would clock up almost three years in Downing Street if she “does Brexit”, serve longer as PM than Trump does as President after his turbulent first six months? I should have put money on that on 9 June."
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
Do you envisage this referendum taking place during the transition period where not much (or nothing at all) will have changed except losing our role in the political institutions of the EU?
I don't envisage it happening at all.
In the unlikely event it does you have to make a case to join, good luck with that.
The apparent +2 total will be due to rounding. Essentially not much change. Taken July 31/Aug 1, when there were open Labour divisions on the Single Market. The public not following the details, I suspect.
Trump isn't likely to be a good president. On that we agree. He could learn by listening to wiser counsel - we can only hope so. However , some of the criticism verges on the hysterical, because it concerns his uncouth manner rather than the crime. And being uncouth will make him a special target for some.
I'd be interested in what the Russians thought they had on Hillary. it wouldn't be her table manners.
I do agree he has challenged, if not shattered, some of what we had previously considered the normal practices for a head of Government.
That being said, he is more a reversion to how things were done a while ago. The promotion of friends and family (being the only ones that could be trusted) and the by-passing of the traditional Government machine have been seen before. It is the mark of the populist outsider who is deeply distrusting of Government and prefers instead to have less experienced but more personally "known" people to deal with.
Oddly enough, I see shades (but only shades) of how the Third Reich functioned as a Government in Trump's behaviour. I'm not for a nanosecond suggesting any ideological similarities but the practice of moving favour from person to person and keeping everyone off balance and vying for that favour is basically how the Reich operated in Government.
Washington isn't going to play those games and as the GOP has failed to control Trump, the military (in the shape of Kelly and McMaster) have taken over. The one area where Trump lacks influence is with the military in terms of not having within his immediate circle a military man so he has had to go beyond and Kelly has come in to restore order to the West Wing and McMaster has slowly edged out the Trump sycophants and now runs the NSC in a much more organised way.
Again, oddly enough, in the day to day functioning of Government, Trump is becoming largely irrelevant and we're seeing the evolution of a more technocratic administration which will, I think, serve America and the world well in the months to come.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Brexit would have to reduce us to a basket case before that happened. If we wanted to rejoin and keep the Pound then we need to ask the EU27 to rescind A50 and hope that our current antics have not annoyed too many of them.
The apparent +2 total will be due to rounding. Essentially not much change. Taken July 31/Aug 1, when there were open Labour divisions on the Single Market. The public not following the details, I suspect.
21seats is a pretty good result, for finishing up 22% behind Labour. In 1997, the Conservatives were 18% behind Labour, and reduced to 11 seats.
But, Greater London Conservatives seem destined to become like New York Republicans, capable of winning here and there, but operating in an overwhelmingly left wing environment.
Yes, I've just refreshed my memory of the 1997 election and that was remarkable for Labour.
The two big areas in which they did better than 2017 were in the inner south west where they took Putney (from Mellor) and Wimbledon on a huge swing and out to the east where the Conservatives lost Hornchurch, Romford and Upminster. In addition, Labour took the two Harrow seats and Hendon while the LDs took Sutton & Cheam, Richmond Park and of course held Southwark & Bermondsey (as was).
The figures I've seen for 2017 show Labour at 54.5% across London with the Conservatives at 33.1% and the LDs at 8.8%. That suggests to me the Conservative vote is more concentrated now than 20 years ago (the figures for 1997 were LAB 49 CON 31 and LD 14.5)and the huge majorities Labour has built up in its strongholds do seem to support that.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left.
You are in a total state of denial.
Your second sentence seems to be a response to your first.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Okay it will be called 'Join'.
The campaign will be - wow our economy has done so badly but if we reverse this decision quickly then we can stop airbus leaving etc...
I don't think things will get that bad that we will end up with a second referendum. But if we get a second referendum - it will be because things have gone badly.
Re: your odds - I'd take 20/1 on there being a second referendum before 31st Dec 2020.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left.
You are in a total state of denial.
Your second sentence seems to be a response to your first.
Anyway you've seen my prices below - what are you backing?
21seats is a pretty good result, for finishing up 22% behind Labour. In 1997, the Conservatives were 18% behind Labour, and reduced to 11 seats.
But, Greater London Conservatives seem destined to become like New York Republicans, capable of winning here and there, but operating in an overwhelmingly left wing environment.
Yes, I've just refreshed my memory of the 1997 election and that was remarkable for Labour.
The two big areas in which they did better than 2017 were in the inner south west where they took Putney (from Mellor) and Wimbledon on a huge swing and out to the east where the Conservatives lost Hornchurch, Romford and Upminster. In addition, Labour took the two Harrow seats and Hendon while the LDs took Sutton & Cheam, Richmond Park and of course held Southwark & Bermondsey (as was).
The figures I've seen for 2017 show Labour at 54.5% across London with the Conservatives at 33.1% and the LDs at 8.8%. That suggests to me the Conservative vote is more concentrated now than 20 years ago (the figures for 1997 were LAB 49 CON 31 and LD 14.5)and the huge majorities Labour has built up in its strongholds do seem to support that.
Havering now votes like Essex, Bexley & Bromley like Kent. Blair was able to do well in both Kent and Essex, but neither Milliband nor Corbyn could.
You're right that Labour's votes in its strongholds are extraordinary (although there are no prizes for piling up votes in safe seats).
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Okay it will be called 'Join'.
The campaign will be - wow our economy has done so badly but if we reverse this decision quickly then we can stop airbus leaving etc...
I don't think things will get that bad that we will end up with a second referendum. But if we get a second referendum - it will be because things have gone badly.
Re: your odds - I'd take 20/1 on there being a second referendum before 31st Dec 2020.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Okay it will be called 'Join'.
The campaign will be - wow our economy has done so badly but if we reverse this decision quickly then we can stop airbus leaving etc...
I don't think things will get that bad that we will end up with a second referendum. But if we get a second referendum - it will be because things have gone badly.
Re: your odds - I'd take 20/1 on there being a second referendum before 31st Dec 2020.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Okay it will be called 'Join'.
The campaign will be - wow our economy has done so badly but if we reverse this decision quickly then we can stop airbus leaving etc...
I don't think things will get that bad that we will end up with a second referendum. But if we get a second referendum - it will be because things have gone badly.
Re: your odds - I'd take 20/1 on there being a second referendum before 31st Dec 2020.
You're on how much do you want?
Do you want to do it against each other or where the loser pays a charity of the winner's choice?
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left.
"One of the things that Chavez did when he came to power, he didn’t kill all the oligarchs, he allowed them to live, to carry on… a lot of them are using their power and control…to make it difficult and to undermine Maduro.”
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left.
Thatcher-lovers of today don't get it do they? The Blessed Margaret would have campaigned to Remain.
That seems unlikely, in the light of her opinions after leaving office.
I would venture to sum up her view of it now as: you were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off.
Powell, who knew her as well as any other politician or advisor, has said she would have been Remain.
And it's bollocks.
Tebbit, Lawson, Lord Owen - and many others, including David Davis - all started off as Europhiles even stronger than she was and all ended up in the Leave camp.
She was playing a very Eurosceptic tune from 1988 onwards, and her book Statecraft is very clear.
I have first hand source information from a close friend of Lady Thatcher that she told him on multiple occasions prior to her death she wanted the UK to Leave the EU.
She was playing a very Eurosceptic tune from 1988 onwards, and her book Statecraft is very clear.
I have first hand source information from a close friend of Lady Thatcher that she told him on multiple occasions prior to her death she wanted the UK to Leave the EU.
Why is Thatcher the only great figure who is afforded the indignity of being judged by her admirers mainly on her views while she was in terminal decline rather than on what made her great in the first place?
As for 1988, this was Thatcher in 1988:
The task of government is two-fold: —to negotiate in Brussels so as to get the possible results for Britain; —and then to make you the business community aware of the opportunities, so that you can make the most of them.
It's your job, the job of business, to gear yourselves up to take the opportunities which a single market of nearly 320 million people will offer.
Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. And with the Channel Tunnel to give you direct access to it.
It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real.
The EU is a huge bag of shite. It's obsessed with creating its own statehood, and governing and adjudicating as such across its member states accordingly.
The UK's does not depend upon its EU membership for either its survival or its prosperity. There will be advantages and disadvantages to being "Out", just as there are for being "In".
It's all about choices.
It's depressing to read so many fellow Britons who seem to express more loyalty and affinity with this broken institution - with its ideologically driven mission - than their own country, whilst having little to support their arguments except hyperbole day-in, day-out.
On the 2018 London elections, I think you'll also see Sadiq Khan on manouveres. He will run a unified campaign across London of "Last Chance To Tell The Government No To A Hard Brexit". This should work well in Boroughs such as Wandsworth and Westminster in winning converts or suppressing natural Tory turnout from voters working in finance etc. It won't play well in Boroughs such as Bromley, but (as pointed out) they are probably beyond Labour's reach anyway. I'd therefore bet that the most pro-Labour expectations, flipping Wandsworth and Westminster, are probably right. Khan will use this to sell himself again as an election winner, ready to take over from Corbyn/McDonnell if they stumble....He would easily get back into Parliament in a London by-election....what are the latest odds on him as next Labour leader and next Labour prime minister?
It's depressing to read so many fellow Britons who seem to express more loyalty and affinity with this broken institution - with its ideologically driven mission - than their own country, whilst having little to support their arguments except hyperbole day-in, day-out.
My country is England. It's becoming increasingly clear that one of the unions to which it belongs is no longer fit for purpose.
She was playing a very Eurosceptic tune from 1988 onwards, and her book Statecraft is very clear.
I have first hand source information from a close friend of Lady Thatcher that she told him on multiple occasions prior to her death she wanted the UK to Leave the EU.
Why is Thatcher the only great figure who is afforded the indignity of being judged by her admirers mainly on her views while she was in terminal decline rather than on what made her great in the first place?
As for 1988, this was Thatcher in 1988:
The task of government is two-fold: —to negotiate in Brussels so as to get the possible results for Britain; —and then to make you the business community aware of the opportunities, so that you can make the most of them.
It's your job, the job of business, to gear yourselves up to take the opportunities which a single market of nearly 320 million people will offer.
Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. And with the Channel Tunnel to give you direct access to it.
It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real.
You can selectively quote and spout whatever deluded bat-shit crazy shite you want to, as you usually do.
My source is absolutely solid, and I trust him far more than a foaming-at-the-mouth, swivel-eyed euro-maniac, like you.
The way she's tried to be labelled in death as a Remainer, when she can't hit back, is appalling.
It's depressing to read so many fellow Britons who seem to express more loyalty and affinity with this broken institution - with its ideologically driven mission - than their own country, whilst having little to support their arguments except hyperbole day-in, day-out.
My country is England. It's becoming increasingly clear that one of the unions to which it belongs is no longer fit for purpose.
On the 2018 London elections, I think you'll also see Sadiq Khan on manouveres. He will run a unified campaign across London of "Last Chance To Tell The Government No To A Hard Brexit". This should work well in Boroughs such as Wandsworth and Westminster in winning converts or suppressing natural Tory turnout from voters working in finance etc. It won't play well in Boroughs such as Bromley, but (as pointed out) they are probably beyond Labour's reach anyway. I'd therefore bet that the most pro-Labour expectations, flipping Wandsworth and Westminster, are probably right. Khan will use this to sell himself again as an election winner, ready to take over from Corbyn/McDonnell if they stumble....He would easily get back into Parliament in a London by-election....what are the latest odds on him as next Labour leader and next Labour prime minister?
I suspect you are right about Labour's campaign. On the other hand I expect the Tories to focus on local issues in each borough and will campaign on keeping Council Tax low (and no doubt with a Labour tax bombshell thrown in somewhere). It then depends whether national or local issues are more important to the voters.
Millions of eggs are being recalled from shops and warehouses in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium after they were found to contain high levels of a toxic insecticide banned from use in the production of food for human consumption.
About 180 farms in the Netherlands have been temporarily closed and a criminal investigation has been launched as authorities seek to get a grip on the scale of the problem. About a million eggs destined for Germany were recalled from the border with the Netherlands this week.
On the 2018 London elections, I think you'll also see Sadiq Khan on manouveres. He will run a unified campaign across London of "Last Chance To Tell The Government No To A Hard Brexit". This should work well in Boroughs such as Wandsworth and Westminster in winning converts or suppressing natural Tory turnout from voters working in finance etc. It won't play well in Boroughs such as Bromley, but (as pointed out) they are probably beyond Labour's reach anyway. I'd therefore bet that the most pro-Labour expectations, flipping Wandsworth and Westminster, are probably right. Khan will use this to sell himself again as an election winner, ready to take over from Corbyn/McDonnell if they stumble....He would easily get back into Parliament in a London by-election....what are the latest odds on him as next Labour leader and next Labour prime minister?
I suspect you are right about Labour's campaign. On the other hand I expect the Tories to focus on local issues in each borough and will campaign on keeping Council Tax low (and no doubt with a Labour tax bombshell thrown in somewhere). It then depends whether national or local issues are more important to the voters.
As it happens I stuck a fiver on him this very morning at 40 on BF.
I absolutely agree that more should try their hand at header writing. It's a bracing experience.
On your other points: I don't think there's any problem in commenting on your own thread if you are asked direct questions by commenters or once everyone else has had a fair chance to say their piece.
Headers can provoke but they must also inform. Great provocation requires great information. (Equally, posters who are greatly provoked should always consider whether the problem is theirs rather than the header writer's, and what information has been given along with the provocation.)
One of the pleasures of writing headers is sneaking in cultural references and seeing whether they are spotted.
I think where TSE is concerned, the more blatant the reference and the more it references Ms Minogue the better all round.
I was concerned my piece was by definition London-centric and some of the regulars make a point of saying they don't live in "that London". Fine - the truth is the London local and Mayoral contests (though in the case of Newham contest is probably overstating it) will be reported as being of national relevance and the Conservatives still hold 21 seats in the capital - no one is saying that London will follow Liverpool and Manchester and eliminate all Conservative MPs but it may become more like Birmingham with the Conservatives reduced to the leafiest fringes)
21seats is a pretty good result, for finishing up 22% behind Labour. In 1997, the Conservatives were 18% behind Labour, and reduced to 11 seats.
But, Greater London Conservatives seem destined to become like New York Republicans, capable of winning here and there, but operating in an overwhelmingly left wing environment.
London is full of immigrants and foreign nationals who get a vote in local elections.
Immigrants and foreign nationals have traditionally been left wing.
So London votes left wing in local elections.
But London has become more left-wing very rapidly. Labour won a 6% higher vote share in London in 2017 than it won in 1997, whereas overall, it was 3% lower. The Conservatives won just 2% more in London than in 1997, compared to an overall rise of 13%.
The % of foreign born has also gone up rapidly from mid 90s to the present day. Almost doubled.
I absolutely agree that more should try their hand at header writing. It's a bracing experience.
On your other points: I don't think there's any problem in commenting on your own thread if you are asked direct questions by commenters or once everyone else has had a fair chance to say their piece.
Headers can provoke but they must also inform. Great provocation requires great information. (Equally, posters who are greatly provoked should always consider whether the problem is theirs rather than the header writer's, and what information has been given along with the provocation.)
One of the pleasures of writing headers is sneaking in cultural references and seeing whether they are spotted.
I think where TSE is concerned, the more blatant the reference and the more it references Ms Minogue the better all round.
I was concerned my piece was by definition London-centric and some of the regulars make a point of saying they don't live in "that London". Fine - the truth is the London local and Mayoral contests (though in the case of Newham contest is probably overstating it) will be reported as being of national relevance and the Conservatives still hold 21 seats in the capital - no one is saying that London will follow Liverpool and Manchester and eliminate all Conservative MPs but it may become more like Birmingham with the Conservatives reduced to the leafiest fringes)
21seats is a pretty good result, for finishing up 22% behind Labour. In 1997, the Conservatives were 18% behind Labour, and reduced to 11 seats.
But, Greater London Conservatives seem destined to become like New York Republicans, capable of winning here and there, but operating in an overwhelmingly left wing environment.
London is full of immigrants and foreign nationals who get a vote in local elections.
Immigrants and foreign nationals have traditionally been left wing.
So London votes left wing in local elections.
But London has become more left-wing very rapidly. Labour won a 6% higher vote share in London in 2017 than it won in 1997, whereas overall, it was 3% lower. The Conservatives won just 2% more in London than in 1997, compared to an overall rise of 13%.
The % of foreign born has also gone up rapidly from mid 90s to the present day. Almost doubled.
40% are foreign-born according to Ben Judah in his book, "This is London".
She was playing a very Eurosceptic tune from 1988 onwards, and her book Statecraft is very clear.
I have first hand source information from a close friend of Lady Thatcher that she told him on multiple occasions prior to her death she wanted the UK to Leave the EU.
Why is Thatcher the only great figure who is afforded the indignity of being judged by her admirers mainly on her views while she was in terminal decline rather than on what made her great in the first place?
As for 1988, this was Thatcher in 1988:
The task of government is two-fold: —to negotiate in Brussels so as to get the possible results for Britain; —and then to make you the business community aware of the opportunities, so that you can make the most of them.
It's your job, the job of business, to gear yourselves up to take the opportunities which a single market of nearly 320 million people will offer.
Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. And with the Channel Tunnel to give you direct access to it.
It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real.
You can selectively quote and spout whatever deluded bat-shit crazy shite you want to, as you usually do.
My source is absolutely solid, and I trust him far more than a foaming-at-the-mouth, swivel-eyed euro-maniac, like you.
The way she's tried to be labelled in death as a Remainer, when she can't hit back, is appalling.
It is somewhat blinkered to take a statement of hope and encouragement that is outlining the vision in the positive light it could be seen in seen at the start of a journey. Then assuming that there are no future experiences or changes in emphasis or direction that could cloud or alter that statement in the light of experience is lacking in any coherent intellectual input.
Just because you support an idea, concept and program in 1988, you do not automatically support the results of the implementation and effects of that idea as they have evolved in an unpredictable way by 2010 (or whatever date you wish to insert).
Gerald Darmanin said he would be "delighted" at the prospect of Neymar paying his taxes in France, once he moves to PSG.
"If Neymar does indeed come to a French club, the budget minister will be delighted at the taxes that he will be able to pay in France," Darmanin said on France Inter radio.
"It's better for this player to pay his taxes in France rather than pay them elsewhere."
Just because you support an idea, concept and program in 1988, you do not automatically support the results of the implementation and effects of that idea as they have evolved in an unpredictable way by 2010 (or whatever date you wish to insert).
That's akin to saying that if only Thatcher could have foreseen the consequences of Thatcherism, privatisation, creating the single market, etc., she would have supported Michael Foot in 1983.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join.
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left.
Thatcher-lovers of today don't get it do they? The Blessed Margaret would have campaigned to Remain.
That seems unlikely, in the light of her opinions after leaving office.
I would venture to sum up her view of it now as: you were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off.
Powell, who knew her as well as any other politician or advisor, has said she would have been Remain.
And it's bollocks.
Tebbit, Lawson, Lord Owen - and many others, including David Davis - all started off as Europhiles even stronger than she was and all ended up in the Leave camp.
She was playing a very Eurosceptic tune from 1988 onwards, and her book Statecraft is very clear.
I have first hand source information from a close friend of Lady Thatcher that she told him on multiple occasions prior to her death she wanted the UK to Leave the EU.
It's a journey that millions of people have made, from being committed supporters of the EU, to voting Leave.
Tories still 41% in You Gov poll so no apparent urgent need for them to depose their current leader and Tory MPs will carry on in their blissful complacency.Once they start to regularly poll in the mid 30s, which I think they will next year, as the drip drip drip effect of inflation in essentials really takes a grip on household expenditure with income barely rising if at all -more and more sad old gits like me will realise their butter has gone up astronomically.Brexit is set to be cock of all cock ups under TMay and her 3 clowns. The other state of the Tory party apart from complacency is panic.Come next year and the polls in the mid 30s,when in a heightened state of anxiety the Tories elect Jacob Rees-Mogg,SirAlecDouglas Hume Part Two, to combat Mr Corbyn.Stranger things have happened.
She was playing a very Eurosceptic tune from 1988 onwards, and her book Statecraft is very clear.
I have first hand source information from a close friend of Lady Thatcher that she told him on multiple occasions prior to her death she wanted the UK to Leave the EU.
Why is Thatcher the only great figure who is afforded the indignity of being judged by her admirers mainly on her views while she was in terminal decline rather than on what made her great in the first place?
As for 1988, this was Thatcher in 1988:
The task of government is two-fold: —to negotiate in Brussels so as to get the possible results for Britain; —and then to make you the business community aware of the opportunities, so that you can make the most of them.
It's your job, the job of business, to gear yourselves up to take the opportunities which a single market of nearly 320 million people will offer.
Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. And with the Channel Tunnel to give you direct access to it.
It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real.
And by 1990, the pro Europeans knifed her because she wouldn't sign Maastricht. Hardly in her dotage at that stage, she was still PM.
Millions of eggs are being recalled from shops and warehouses in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium after they were found to contain high levels of a toxic insecticide banned from use in the production of food for human consumption. About 180 farms in the Netherlands have been temporarily closed and a criminal investigation has been launched as authorities seek to get a grip on the scale of the problem. About a million eggs destined for Germany were recalled from the border with the Netherlands this week. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/03/eggs-removed-from-european-shelves-over-toxicity-fears-fipronil
Must be those famed EU regs that stop the nasty agricultural products... err... affecting consumers?
Just because you support an idea, concept and program in 1988, you do not automatically support the results of the implementation and effects of that idea as they have evolved in an unpredictable way by 2010 (or whatever date you wish to insert).
That's akin to saying that if only Thatcher could have foreseen the consequences of Thatcherism, privatisation, creating the single market, etc., she would have supported Michael Foot in 1983.
And the alternative is that you can never change your mind in light of experience?
It has nothing to do with foreseeing, but to reacting to the effects, both intended and unintended, of actions that are taken.
I would describe that as rational or sensible. The insanity in not changing your views in light of experience.
Once they start to regularly poll in the mid 30s, which I think they will next year, as the drip drip drip effect of inflation in essentials really takes a grip on household expenditure with income barely rising if at all -more and more sad old gits like me will realise their butter has gone up astronomically.Brexit is set to be cock of all cock ups under TMay and her 3 clowns.
The peak rate of inflation on essentials has probably passed. The pound has strengthened in recent weeks.
Let's be clear, there cannot be a second referendum on leaving the EU. What is possible, but highly unlikely, is a referendum on whether should join. Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
I think there will only be a second referendum if Brexit goes badly. Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Rejoin... And give up the Pound?
Maybe - I don't know. It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out. But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
You don't get it do you?
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
Join the political institutions that are influencing all our lives? How about 'take back control' as a slogan?
The EU will not be influencing our lives, we will have left. You are in a total state of denial.
Thatcher-lovers of today don't get it do they? The Blessed Margaret would have campaigned to Remain.
That seems unlikely, in the light of her opinions after leaving office.
I would venture to sum up her view of it now as: you were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off.
Powell, who knew her as well as any other politician or advisor, has said she would have been Remain.
And it's bollocks. Tebbit, Lawson, Lord Owen - and many others, including David Davis - all started off as Europhiles even stronger than she was and all ended up in the Leave camp. She was playing a very Eurosceptic tune from 1988 onwards, and her book Statecraft is very clear. I have first hand source information from a close friend of Lady Thatcher that she told him on multiple occasions prior to her death she wanted the UK to Leave the EU.
It's a journey that millions of people have made, from being committed supporters of the EU, to voting Leave.
Very true. I wanted Thatcher out in 1990 due to her opposition to the EC/EU. The foolish views of youth.
Just because you support an idea, concept and program in 1988, you do not automatically support the results of the implementation and effects of that idea as they have evolved in an unpredictable way by 2010 (or whatever date you wish to insert).
That's akin to saying that if only Thatcher could have foreseen the consequences of Thatcherism, privatisation, creating the single market, etc., she would have supported Michael Foot in 1983.
And the alternative is that you can never change your mind in light of experience?
It has nothing to do with foreseeing, but to reacting to the effects, both intended and unintended, of actions that are taken.
I would describe that as rational or sensible. The insanity in not changing your views in light of experience.
If changing your mind in the light of experience is the mark of wisdom, how do Eurosceptics of the 97-2001 vintage reconcile William Hague's fairly passionate support for Remain with their own absence of any personal journey?
I challenge anyone to read this through - without prejudice due to the name of the author - and not think it's a sensible and pragmatic approach to leaving the EU.
He's still stuck in Von Trapp Brexit mode. As usual, it's nonsense from the most deceitful Brexiter of them all. Sadly, the only person he's deceiving is himself.
I challenge anyone to read this through - without prejudice due to the name of the author - and not think it's a sensible and pragmatic approach to leaving the EU.
He's still stuck in Von Trapp Brexit mode. As usual, it's nonsense from the most deceitful Brexiter of them all. Sadly, the only person he's deceiving is himself.
Why "sadly"? Surely it is better that he deceives himself, if indeed he is, than others?
What are people's views on the Labour response to Venezuela?
It appeared crystal clear on Newsnight last night that Chris Williamson was not willing to criticise the Venezuelan government in any way - blaming all the problems on US sanctions.
If Corbyn does become PM it's pretty clear what he would actually like to do. But to what extent could he actually do what he would like to do?
If the answer is to any significant degree, how many people are seriously contemplating for the first time in their lives the prospect of, at least potentially, leaving the country?
What are people's views on the Labour response to Venezuela?
It appeared crystal clear last night on Newsnight that Chris Williamson was not willing to criticise the Venezuelan government in any way - blaming all the problems on US sanctions.
If Corbyn does become PM it's pretty clear what he would actually like to do. But to what extent could he actually do what he would like to do?
If the answer is to any significant degree, how many people are seriously contemplating for the first time in their lives the prospect of, at least potentially, leaving the country?
What are people's views on the Labour response to Venezuela?
It appeared crystal clear on Newsnight last night that Chris Williamson was not willing to criticise the Venezuelan government in any way - blaming all the problems on US sanctions.
If Corbyn does become PM it's pretty clear what he would actually like to do. But to what extent could he actually do what he would like to do?
If the answer is to any significant degree, how many people are seriously contemplating for the first time in their lives the prospect of, at least potentially, leaving the country?
If you're planning to go to another EU country, best to do it before March 2019!
They do need to go up long term in all honesty, but if they can kindly wait till I've got my move completed ^_~.
Agreed. It's a sign of the overall economic torpour that the project date of a rate rise always seems to be 6-12 months away. I wouldn't be surprised if we're having this same conversation in 5 years time tbh.
What are people's views on the Labour response to Venezuela?
It appeared crystal clear last night on Newsnight that Chris Williamson was not willing to criticise the Venezuelan government in any way - blaming all the problems on US sanctions.
If Corbyn does become PM it's pretty clear what he would actually like to do. But to what extent could he actually do what he would like to do?
If the answer is to any significant degree, how many people are seriously contemplating for the first time in their lives the prospect of, at least potentially, leaving the country?
Momentum is to launch a series of training camps for Labour activists to target 160 marginal constituencies in a campaign aimed at unseating MPs such as the foreign secretary, Boris Johnson.
The grassroots group of Jeremy Corbyn supporters, which was credited with helping motivate voters before the 8 June general election, will run the one-day workshops across the country in a sign Labour is preparing for the possibility of another snap election.
What are people's views on the Labour response to Venezuela?
It appeared crystal clear last night on Newsnight that Chris Williamson was not willing to criticise the Venezuelan government in any way - blaming all the problems on US sanctions.
If Corbyn does become PM it's pretty clear what he would actually like to do. But to what extent could he actually do what he would like to do?
If the answer is to any significant degree, how many people are seriously contemplating for the first time in their lives the prospect of, at least potentially, leaving the country?
What are people's views on the Labour response to Venezuela?
It appeared crystal clear last night on Newsnight that Chris Williamson was not willing to criticise the Venezuelan government in any way - blaming all the problems on US sanctions.
If Corbyn does become PM it's pretty clear what he would actually like to do. But to what extent could he actually do what he would like to do?
If the answer is to any significant degree, how many people are seriously contemplating for the first time in their lives the prospect of, at least potentially, leaving the country?
If corbyn becomes pm, I will be leaving.
You and @Casino can get a twofer on Brittany Ferries.
What are people's views on the Labour response to Venezuela?
It appeared crystal clear last night on Newsnight that Chris Williamson was not willing to criticise the Venezuelan government in any way - blaming all the problems on US sanctions.
If Corbyn does become PM it's pretty clear what he would actually like to do. But to what extent could he actually do what he would like to do?
If the answer is to any significant degree, how many people are seriously contemplating for the first time in their lives the prospect of, at least potentially, leaving the country?
Momentum is to launch a series of training camps for Labour activists to target 160 marginal constituencies in a campaign aimed at unseating MPs such as the foreign secretary, Boris Johnson.
The grassroots group of Jeremy Corbyn supporters, which was credited with helping motivate voters before the 8 June general election, will run the one-day workshops across the country in a sign Labour is preparing for the possibility of another snap election.
What are people's views on the Labour response to Venezuela?
It appeared crystal clear last night on Newsnight that Chris Williamson was not willing to criticise the Venezuelan government in any way - blaming all the problems on US sanctions.
If Corbyn does become PM it's pretty clear what he would actually like to do. But to what extent could he actually do what he would like to do?
If the answer is to any significant degree, how many people are seriously contemplating for the first time in their lives the prospect of, at least potentially, leaving the country?
If corbyn becomes pm, I will be leaving.
People rarely follow through on these things...
I will be. I don't have kids and run my own business, so I don't have what is most common reasons people don't. I also have the qualifications which mean I pass a lot of points based immigration schemes.
I'm not looking for any political banter - I'm just interested in people's serious views on this.
Whether or not people support Corbyn's official policies (let's for the purposes of this discussion define that as the 2017 GE Labour manifesto), I'm just curious to what extent people are concerned that things might spiral out of control to the extent that they would have a material, serious adverse impact on people's lives.
By that I don't mean people who are relatively comfortably off paying a bit more, or even quite a lot more tax.
I'm talking about real fundamental life changing stuff - the sort of stuff which would lead one to think you have to get out.
They do need to go up long term in all honesty, but if they can kindly wait till I've got my move completed ^_~.
Agreed. It's a sign of the overall economic torpour that the project date of a rate rise always seems to be 6-12 months away. I wouldn't be surprised if we're having this same conversation in 5 years time tbh.
Perhaps it's just "torpour" that should be blamed for the "purile" (q.v.) mistakes that come from not bothering to consult a dictionary.
I'm not looking for any political banter - I'm just interested in people's serious views on this.
Whether or not people support Corbyn's official policies (let's for the purposes of this discussion define that as the 2017 GE Labour manifesto), I'm just curious to what extent people are concerned that things might spiral out of control to the extent that they would have a material, serious adverse impact on people's lives.
By that I don't mean people who are relatively comfortably off paying a bit more, or even quite a lot more tax.
I'm talking about real fundamental life changing stuff - the sort of stuff which would lead one to think you have to get out.
Almost 100% unconcerned as per your criteria. The UK has a very good system IMO. Even in the US - who have elected an obviously incompetent - most people's lives carry on much as before.
The kind of life changing stuff I think you are talking about would need a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe.
Comments
Tatton or Harrogate perhaps, can't think where else in the north that would apply..
Marco said: 'All you have to do is share the app with four people, who each get four people on board and so on.
'Within three months you will be eating for free and by month seven you should be earning a minimum of £5,277 a month.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4746292/Dragons-Den-reject-ready-meal-empire.html
The definition of a pyramid scheme right there.
In answer to your second paragraph, while it was an astonishing and brilliant moment that deserves to be feted, do not overestimate its importance. Dunkirk, whichever way it had gone, was not likely to be an existential threat to either Britain or Europe. Films often do somewhat exaggerate the importance of the events they are portraying because it's often very difficult to simplify highly complex historical chains of causality into one short film (The Dam Busters springs to mind).
Very remarkable though the rescue of the BEF was, it was years before it was in a position to do any actual fighting again due to the loss of so much of its equipment. While it could form the core of a new army, it was Britain's other land forces - in India, in North Africa - that bore the brunt of such infantry campaigning as there was for the next few years.
The crucial element in Hitler's defeat on land was his defeat in Russia (as another slightly undersized egomaniac with rumoured problems with his sex organs who was not a native of the country he was ruling found out the hard way 130 years before). And that of course would probably have happened regardless of the outcome of Dunkirk.
However, it is also worth pointing out that by September 1940, after Halifax's wobble on the subject and his subsequent replacement by Eden, there was never any real danger of Britain being defeated. It was simply too big, too economically powerful and too well protected for the Wehrmacht to overcome. There was the possibility of a negotiated peace, but not one where the Germans dictated all the terms (as they did to the French). Once the USA and USSR had joined in as well in 1941, the resources facing Germany were immense and the ultimate outcome was never in actual doubt.
Immigrants and foreign nationals have traditionally been left wing.
So London votes left wing in local elections.
Leavers gonna leave. Full speed ahead and d*mn the torpedoes
(Doesn't even apply in Harrogate apparently - quick search on Zoopla suggests this is about typical:
https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/44472254?search_identifier=8443795689a326ae694f0e5e7899e1b4)
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/08/daniel-hannan-twelve-principles-to-unite-remainers-and-leavers.html
Very good piece.
http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/norms-and-cliffs-in-trumps-america
How very true.
We get told repeatedly that the public want us to get on with Leaving so what are Leavers worried about? They are so sure then they have absolutely nothing to lose.
If, on the other hand, REMAIN wins by more than a wafer-thin majority then democracy has spoken and Leavers keep telling us that democracy must be respected. If we win playing by LEAVE's rules then can you complain about that?
(For the avoidance of doubt I think that the Winning Line in the referendum should be set at just more than the last result - say 52% - so Remain has to do better than Leave did last time, else they lose)
Now that really would be fun, seeing people attempt to make a positive case for joining.
In any case I doubt that Trump would even be able to make the trains run on time.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-theresa-may-government-impeachment-leader-dysfunctional-government-scaramucci-a7873151.html
In the unlikely event it does you have to make a case to join, good luck with that.
Given that - rejoin should be favourites to win.
Lab 44 (+1), Con 41 (=) LD 7 (+1) Others 9 (=)
The apparent +2 total will be due to rounding. Essentially not much change. Taken July 31/Aug 1, when there were open Labour divisions on the Single Market. The public not following the details, I suspect.
Electoral Calculus assessment of the state of play:
https://labourlist.org/2017/08/labour-on-course-to-form-largest-party-at-next-election-predicts-polling-forecaster/
I think Trump is going to seriously break the law, if he hasn't already.
The question is whether enough Americans will care.
2017 1000/1
2018 50/1
2019 33/1
2020 25/1
2021 We''all have starved to death due to Brexit anyway
It could be that Remain claim they would be able to negotiate an opt-out.
But if there is another referendum - it will be because people really want it I think... and that suggests they want to change the current (future) state of affairs.
The two big areas in which they did better than 2017 were in the inner south west where they took Putney (from Mellor) and Wimbledon on a huge swing and out to the east where the Conservatives lost Hornchurch, Romford and Upminster. In addition, Labour took the two Harrow seats and Hendon while the LDs took Sutton & Cheam, Richmond Park and of course held Southwark & Bermondsey (as was).
The figures I've seen for 2017 show Labour at 54.5% across London with the Conservatives at 33.1% and the LDs at 8.8%. That suggests to me the Conservative vote is more concentrated now than 20 years ago (the figures for 1997 were LAB 49 CON 31 and LD 14.5)and the huge majorities Labour has built up in its strongholds do seem to support that.
There will be no Remain campaign, it will be the Join campaign.
Let us know in advance what the message will be please.
You are in a total state of denial.
The campaign will be - wow our economy has done so badly but if we reverse this decision quickly then we can stop airbus leaving etc...
I don't think things will get that bad that we will end up with a second referendum.
But if we get a second referendum - it will be because things have gone badly.
Re: your odds - I'd take 20/1 on there being a second referendum before 31st Dec 2020.
You're right that Labour's votes in its strongholds are extraordinary (although there are no prizes for piling up votes in safe seats).
Thatcher-lovers of today don't get it do they? The Blessed Margaret would have campaigned to Remain.
On stake: 10 GBP please.
"One of the things that Chavez did when he came to power, he didn’t kill all the oligarchs, he allowed them to live, to carry on… a lot of them are using their power and control…to make it difficult and to undermine Maduro.”
https://order-order.com/2017/08/03/ken-failure-kill-oligarchs-caused-venezuela-crisis/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40810970
Tebbit, Lawson, Lord Owen - and many others, including David Davis - all started off as Europhiles even stronger than she was and all ended up in the Leave camp.
She was playing a very Eurosceptic tune from 1988 onwards, and her book Statecraft is very clear.
I have first hand source information from a close friend of Lady Thatcher that she told him on multiple occasions prior to her death she wanted the UK to Leave the EU.
As for 1988, this was Thatcher in 1988:
The task of government is two-fold: —to negotiate in Brussels so as to get the possible results for Britain; —and then to make you the business community aware of the opportunities, so that you can make the most of them.
It's your job, the job of business, to gear yourselves up to take the opportunities which a single market of nearly 320 million people will offer.
Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers—visible or invisible—giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world's wealthiest and most prosperous people.
Bigger than Japan. Bigger than the United States. On your doorstep. And with the Channel Tunnel to give you direct access to it.
It's not a dream. It's not a vision. It's not some bureaucrat's plan. It's for real.
The UK's does not depend upon its EU membership for either its survival or its prosperity. There will be advantages and disadvantages to being "Out", just as there are for being "In".
It's all about choices.
It's depressing to read so many fellow Britons who seem to express more loyalty and affinity with this broken institution - with its ideologically driven mission - than their own country, whilst having little to support their arguments except hyperbole day-in, day-out.
My source is absolutely solid, and I trust him far more than a foaming-at-the-mouth, swivel-eyed euro-maniac, like you.
The way she's tried to be labelled in death as a Remainer, when she can't hit back, is appalling.
Only 20 months to go.
About 180 farms in the Netherlands have been temporarily closed and a criminal investigation has been launched as authorities seek to get a grip on the scale of the problem. About a million eggs destined for Germany were recalled from the border with the Netherlands this week.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/03/eggs-removed-from-european-shelves-over-toxicity-fears-fipronil
Just because you support an idea, concept and program in 1988, you do not automatically support the results of the implementation and effects of that idea as they have evolved in an unpredictable way by 2010 (or whatever date you wish to insert).
Gerald Darmanin said he would be "delighted" at the prospect of Neymar paying his taxes in France, once he moves to PSG.
"If Neymar does indeed come to a French club, the budget minister will be delighted at the taxes that he will be able to pay in France," Darmanin said on France Inter radio.
"It's better for this player to pay his taxes in France rather than pay them elsewhere."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/40776521
How naive...
The other state of the Tory party apart from complacency is panic.Come next year and the polls in the mid 30s,when in a heightened state of anxiety the Tories elect Jacob Rees-Mogg,SirAlecDouglas Hume Part Two, to combat Mr Corbyn.Stranger things have happened.
It has nothing to do with foreseeing, but to reacting to the effects, both intended and unintended, of actions that are taken.
I would describe that as rational or sensible. The insanity in not changing your views in light of experience.
You know the world's gone mad when a filling ends up ending a run of bad luck. Surprised how quick and painless it was.
Raise rates, damn your eyes!
It appeared crystal clear on Newsnight last night that Chris Williamson was not willing to criticise the Venezuelan government in any way - blaming all the problems on US sanctions.
If Corbyn does become PM it's pretty clear what he would actually like to do. But to what extent could he actually do what he would like to do?
If the answer is to any significant degree, how many people are seriously contemplating for the first time in their lives the prospect of, at least potentially, leaving the country?
The grassroots group of Jeremy Corbyn supporters, which was credited with helping motivate voters before the 8 June general election, will run the one-day workshops across the country in a sign Labour is preparing for the possibility of another snap election.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/03/boris-johnson-momentum-campaign-labour-marginal-seats
Suspect your happiness threshold has been seriously lowered by recent events
Whether or not people support Corbyn's official policies (let's for the purposes of this discussion define that as the 2017 GE Labour manifesto), I'm just curious to what extent people are concerned that things might spiral out of control to the extent that they would have a material, serious adverse impact on people's lives.
By that I don't mean people who are relatively comfortably off paying a bit more, or even quite a lot more tax.
I'm talking about real fundamental life changing stuff - the sort of stuff which would lead one to think you have to get out.
Even in the US - who have elected an obviously incompetent - most people's lives carry on much as before.
The kind of life changing stuff I think you are talking about would need a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/893083735633129472