OK - completely off topic but a question for the PB brains trust and/pr Stodge's valet.
I want to upgrade my computer (my Apple Mac being ca a decade old). A laptop would be good. I will have a website and be creating documents and presentations. It needs to be reliable. I don't need super fast gaming. It needs to be easy to use - as I will be my own IT department. And to have plenty of storage.
So Apple or not. What is Chrome? Etc etc. Any recommendations?
The people have voted to leave, it's up to the government/parliament to determine the form of departure. If they can't agree then the default is no deal.
Vernon is a nice man (he was my tutor at Oxford) but is very keen to further embed the UK into the EU - he's a believer in a federal Europe. This is a political case, not an academic case, that he is making and should be treated as such. It might be right or wrong, but it's not special because it's "Vernon" making it.
Vernon Bogdanor's article is quite bizarre. He starts with some good analysis, but then suddenly concludes, with no intervening reasoning, that the outcome could be a second referendum.
A second referendum about what, exactly?
You can only have a referendum about something which is the UK's control. So it can't be a referendum on which Brexit deal we should go for: there will only be one on offer, and that will have been hammered out in tense and difficult negotiations, so it won't be alterable. If we reject the deal, there's no deal, and we'll crash out in total chaos.
Perhaps he means a referendum on whether we should accept the Brexit deal, with the alternative being remaining in the EU. But that makes no sense either. Remain on what terms, and by what mechanism? Although the legal position isn't completely clear, it seems most likely that there is no legal way of the UK unilaterally withdrawing the Article 50 notification. So that means getting the unanimous consent of at least 27 other countries, plus probably the EU parliament and perhaps various oddball regional parliaments as well. How on earth could anyone know whether that is an option which might be available, and in what timescale? In any case, by then preparations for Brexit on both sides will be well advanced; in practical terms, how do you reverse them?
In other words, the distinguished professor seems to be out with the fairies.
Exactly.
At the end of the negotiation there will be two options.
1. Accept the governments deal.
2. Crash out to WTO rules.
MP's won't risk the public actually voting to crash out in a second referendum so they'll vote for the governments deal in the end.
OK - completely off topic but a question for the PB brains trust and/pr Stodge's valet.
I want to upgrade my computer (my Apple Mac being ca a decade old). A laptop would be good. I will have a website and be creating documents and presentations. It needs to be reliable. I don't need super fast gaming. It needs to be easy to use - as I will be my own IT department. And to have plenty of storage.
So Apple or not. What is Chrome? Etc etc. Any recommendations?
OK - completely off topic but a question for the PB brains trust and/pr Stodge's valet.
I want to upgrade my computer (my Apple Mac being ca a decade old). A laptop would be good. I will have a website and be creating documents and presentations. It needs to be reliable. I don't need super fast gaming. It needs to be easy to use - as I will be my own IT department. And to have plenty of storage.
So Apple or not. What is Chrome? Etc etc. Any recommendations?
OK - completely off topic but a question for the PB brains trust and/pr Stodge's valet.
I want to upgrade my computer (my Apple Mac being ca a decade old). A laptop would be good. I will have a website and be creating documents and presentations. It needs to be reliable. I don't need super fast gaming. It needs to be easy to use - as I will be my own IT department. And to have plenty of storage.
So Apple or not. What is Chrome? Etc etc. Any recommendations?
It is great and I am very happy (not so good points: shiny screen, plus no page up, page down functions).
Looking at the two side-by-side in the shop, however, the Dell XPS series has the best display out there.
= my $0.02
I bought a Lenovo T430 in early 2013. In 2017, it'll be an updated version, nut I don't know what number. Get a large screen if you want to watch Youtube/TV on it.
Lenovos come in all qualities. Get the same level as the T430, or higher, and it should last well.
Dell 'commercial quality' laptops should also last quite a long time, even in constant use, I've heard of 6-10 years.
Most IT equipment is 'consumer quality', a.k.a. tat. It won't even last 2 yrs in regular use, especially not the keyboard.
OK - completely off topic but a question for the PB brains trust and/pr Stodge's valet.
I want to upgrade my computer (my Apple Mac being ca a decade old). A laptop would be good. I will have a website and be creating documents and presentations. It needs to be reliable. I don't need super fast gaming. It needs to be easy to use - as I will be my own IT department. And to have plenty of storage.
So Apple or not. What is Chrome? Etc etc. Any recommendations?
Suppose I'm worried about Corbyn and I want to get money out of the country in advance.
Say I go to Bank of America in London and deposit £1million - what is the determinator of where that money is located? Could I just say "Deposit it in New York"?
ie How is location defined in a world of electronic banking?
The thinking is obviously to get the money outside the boundary of possible exchange controls.
as far as possible.
You need to open a bank account at an American branch and wire it to there. That way your "loan" (deposit) is to a US entity, not to a UK subsidiary of a US firm.
And to answer a question posed on the other thread - my concern isn't the Lab manifesto. Whilst I disagree with it, if they implemented it (full stop) I don't think I would need to think about leaving the country.
My concern is about a spiral out of control - heading in the direction of a Venezuela. Obviously that would be very extreme and it would take a long time to get anywhere remotely near that bad.
But reversing BoE independence would be the sort of thing not in the manifesto which could be a precursor to wild policies which could start us at least heading in that direction.
I have very little sympathy for those who swallowed the Daily Mail's dystopic imaginings about a Corbyn Government but they use Dominic Sandbrook who's a right-wing polemicist not a historian.
To bring it back to basics, a Government only has to ensure two things happen - the administration of law and the distribution of food. As long as the supply of food remains unchanged and there is enough law enforcement to maintain social order and cohesion, it doesn't really matter which party is in charge.
I wouldn't expect Britain to become Venezuela under Corbyn.
I just think it would be quite unpleasant for people like me.
If I may ask, is that because of your relative wealth, colour, political views or just because you're a lawyer?
OK - completely off topic but a question for the PB brains trust and/pr Stodge's valet.
I want to upgrade my computer (my Apple Mac being ca a decade old). A laptop would be good. I will have a website and be creating documents and presentations. It needs to be reliable. I don't need super fast gaming. It needs to be easy to use - as I will be my own IT department. And to have plenty of storage.
So Apple or not. What is Chrome? Etc etc. Any recommendations?
Thanks in advance.
A vm will do.
As a one man band I would echo what others have said on here. Memory is very important, way more important than speed which seems to be for gaming etc. Most laptops slow down before even a reasonable percentage of their memory is being used and it usually drives me to a replacement. In my line of work and in yours that causes all kinds of issues with data protection, new encryption etc so you want to do it as rarely as possible.
In the past I had dells and was pretty happy with them. I currently have a Lenovo (courtesy of my better half) and would not recommend it but perhaps she did not get the highest spec.
OK - completely off topic but a question for the PB brains trust and/pr Stodge's valet.
I want to upgrade my computer (my Apple Mac being ca a decade old). A laptop would be good. I will have a website and be creating documents and presentations. It needs to be reliable. I don't need super fast gaming. It needs to be easy to use - as I will be my own IT department. And to have plenty of storage.
So Apple or not. What is Chrome? Etc etc. Any recommendations?
Thanks in advance.
A vm will do.
If you want a Mac, buy a Mac.
If you want the adventure that is Windows 10, Thinkpads are the best I have used. I bought a 770 in 1998. It still works (a bit slow though).
The current situation does not have me calling for a second referendum, and first choice has to be a good Brexit. But if the government puts a very bad deal to parliament through their own ineptitude, serious economic collywobbles have set in 15 months from now, and the public mood has clearly changed, then I would be l shouting for a second referendum as a get out. The Lib Dems are doing a clear public service in keeping it on the political agenda.
Parliament's voting down a bad Brexit deal if the government line is still 'deal or no deal' will be a serious act of faith on whether the cabinet's mood is sufficiently shaken to look at the no deal cliff, the public mood and go, "you know what, a second referendum is not a bad idea". It could be, though, that the government softens in the run up to a parliamentary vote, making rejection easier. Labour MPs may also have to rebel against Corbyn pushing bad Brexit, but that would be the easiest rebellion of the last few years, reading the government will be a bigger worry.
I'm certain this route presages brutal internal party feuding, but it doesn't need or materially change a vote of no confidence calculation, even if defections ensue. But then going through with bad Brexit also presages epic feuding. Survival instinct will be a big player.
I rate a second referendum is about a 20% chance, and the circumstances that bring it about make a remain win about an 80% chance should it happen.
It seems a little off that, givenhis bast body of work, the BBC call him "Harry Potter star"
A few years back I watched a documentary about the raising of the Mary Rose, and was surprised to discover that Hardy was an acclaimed expert on the Longbow, and had been called in to look at the ones they recovered from the wreck.
He was a superb dramatic actor stupendous in period dramas like Middlemarch and various Austen adaptations. Truly one of the greats.
I've never had a problem in principle with a second referendum, on the basis that they are only advisory and opinions can change if you want to seek democratic mandate for a change in position, but the problem has always been how it would be justified, that it would massively inflame matters, and would inevitably and reasonably mean the issue festers on forevermore if it does lead to a change in position (which would be in now way guaranteed). Not reasons one could not be had, but political cover for doing it remains very hard for me to picture despite the arguments in favour.
Could it be framed to say: "the deal we negotiated or stay in"? Not sure. Possibly. But that would be bad also because, without Dave's deal, staying in would put us at a disadvantage.
Dave's deal is a face-saver that didn't work called by a Prime Minister who has long since resigned. Nobody was impressed when he got it and nobody would miss it if it was gone.
so another one that fundamentally misunderstood it.
Fair enough.
I suppose an extra reason not to have a second referendum: the public isn't bright enough to understand the issues.
Being at a potential disadvantage without Dave's deal wouldn't be an issue if we joined the Euro.
Ken Clarke single-handedly saved the euro in the 1990s, says Juncker
Clarke, three months into the job of chancellor after succeeding Lamont, would have none of it and rode to Europe's rescue, Juncker says in an interview published on Saturday in Munich's Süddeutsche Zeitung.
"Clarke came and organised an even smaller secret meeting. If you go, he told me, everything will collapse. You will never get this thing again. There will be no currency union. But I would like that we can join it one day."
Clarke's starring role in resuscitating the infant euro left a lasting impression on Juncker, who has attended more than 90 EU summits and is a walking encyclopaedia on European politics.
The Luxembourger, who also chairs the eurogroup of the 17 countries in the single currency, appears convinced that the UK will eventually see the light.
"In the long-term thinking of the British, joining the euro is an issue," he contends. "The UK will introduce the euro. On the day that the British realise that the pound is a regional currency without any international influence, they will join."
That's pretty implausible. Labour MPs siding with the Tories to vote down a Labour government would be so hated by Labour activists that they'd make Blair or MacDonald look like Nye Bevan.
And of course, they'd be signing their own political death warrants. There wouldn't be a new government in such circumstances; the Tories would refuse to take office and trigger a new election. Any other option would look like (and be) a parliamentary coup. Far more legitimate for a new election - which would naturally follow a VoNC anyway - and let the people decide. Against a failing Labour government and with the PLP in utter turmoil, why would the Tories settle for some second-rate minority administration when a landslide would be in the offing?
Mr Herdson, as a Tory insider, do you get the feeling that Conservative voters are becoming a bit dissatisfied with the level of incompetence shown by the present government?
Suppose I'm worried about Corbyn and I want to get money out of the country in advance.
Say I go to Bank of America in London and deposit £1million - what is the determinator of where that money is located? Could I just say "Deposit it in New York"?
ie How is location defined in a world of electronic banking?
The thinking is obviously to get the money outside the boundary of possible exchange controls.
as far as possible.
You need to open a bank account at an American branch and wire it to there. That way your "loan" (deposit) is to a US entity, not to a UK subsidiary of a US firm.
Alternativey, Mike could wire me the money for safekeeping.
Suppose I'm worried about Corbyn and I want to get money out of the country in advance.
Say I go to Bank of America in London and deposit £1million - what is the determinator of where that money is located? Could I just say "Deposit it in New York"?
ie How is location defined in a world of electronic banking?
The thinking is obviously to get the money outside the boundary of possible exchange controls.
as far as possible.
You need to open a bank account at an American branch and wire it to there. That way your "loan" (deposit) is to a US entity, not to a UK subsidiary of a US firm.
It seems a little off that, givenhis bast body of work, the BBC call him "Harry Potter star"
A few years back I watched a documentary about the raising of the Mary Rose, and was surprised to discover that Hardy was an acclaimed expert on the Longbow, and had been called in to look at the ones they recovered from the wreck.
He was a superb dramatic actor stupendous in period dramas like Middlemarch and various Austen adaptations. Truly one of the greats.
I have heard it said by someone in the bitchy profession albeit many years ago that Robert Hardy was very good at playing Robert Hardy. He did play a good Siegfried Farnon it has to be said.
Suppose I'm worried about Corbyn and I want to get money out of the country in advance.
Say I go to Bank of America in London and deposit £1million - what is the determinator of where that money is located? Could I just say "Deposit it in New York"?
ie How is location defined in a world of electronic banking?
The thinking is obviously to get the money outside the boundary of possible exchange controls.
as far as possible.
You need to open a bank account at an American branch and wire it to there. That way your "loan" (deposit) is to a US entity, not to a UK subsidiary of a US firm.
My view, as someone who knows Corbyn better than most here, is that he has no very strong preference on EU membership, and would be perfectly happy to offer a new referendum if it was clear that most voters wanted it and it would substantially increase the prospect of a Labour government able to do many other things we think desirable. People who question his ardour for the EU are right, but it's a misunderstanding to think he's passionately opposed.
Meanwhile, it's really worth reading the report linked to by Rottenborough on the last thread:
- they say the same finding happened for Brexit, asnd it substantially supports the theory - which I've never seen real evidence for before - that people swing behind a perceived winner. Initially I thought this was just confirmatory bias - people voting Labour being more likely to say they thought Labour would win, meh - but in fact the methodology avoids this by looking at how the thinking of the same people evolves over time. Apparently, as people become more convinced that someone will win, they also become more likely to support them.
This still doesn't quite take us out of confirmatory bias, though. It's possible that what people are doing is projecting their improved view - "since I've come to like Corbyn/Brexit more, I assume that others are coming to the same conclusion and they're more likely to win than I thought". Nonetheless, it does suggest that momentum in politics plays an important role.
My view, as someone who knows Corbyn better than most here, is that he has no very strong preference on EU membership, and would be perfectly happy to offer a new referendum if it was clear that most voters wanted it and it would substantially increase the prospect of a Labour government able to do many other things we think desirable. People who question his ardour for the EU are right, but it's a misunderstanding to think he's passionately opposed.
Meanwhile, it's really worth reading the report linked to by Rottenborough on the last thread:
- they say the same finding happened for Brexit, asnd it substantially supports the theory - which I've never seen real evidence for before - that people swing behind a perceived winner. Initially I thought this was just confirmatory bias - people voting Labour being more likely to say they thought Labour would win, meh - but in fact the methodology avoids this by looking at how the thinking of the same people evolves over time. Apparently, as people become more convinced that someone will win, they also become more likely to support them.
This still doesn't quite take us out of confirmatory bias, though. It's possible that what people are doing is projecting their improved view - "since I've come to like Corbyn/Brexit more, I assume that others are coming to the same conclusion and they're more likely to win than I thought". Nonetheless, it does suggest that momentum in politics plays an important role.
Is it the case though that nationalisations and increased state intervention in industry are more easily carried out outside the EU?
Could it be framed to say: "the deal we negotiated or stay in"? Not sure. Possibly. But that would be bad also because, without Dave's deal, staying in would put us at a disadvantage.
Dave's deal is a face-saver that didn't work called by a Prime Minister who has long since resigned. Nobody was impressed when he got it and nobody would miss it if it was gone.
so another one that fundamentally misunderstood it.
Fair enough.
I suppose an extra reason not to have a second referendum: the public isn't bright enough to understand the issues.
Being at a potential disadvantage without Dave's deal wouldn't be an issue if we joined the Euro.
Ken Clarke single-handedly saved the euro in the 1990s, says Juncker
Clarke, three months into the job of chancellor after succeeding Lamont, would have none of it and rode to Europe's rescue, Juncker says in an interview published on Saturday in Munich's Süddeutsche Zeitung.
"Clarke came and organised an even smaller secret meeting. If you go, he told me, everything will collapse. You will never get this thing again. There will be no currency union. But I would like that we can join it one day."
Clarke's starring role in resuscitating the infant euro left a lasting impression on Juncker, who has attended more than 90 EU summits and is a walking encyclopaedia on European politics.
The Luxembourger, who also chairs the eurogroup of the 17 countries in the single currency, appears convinced that the UK will eventually see the light.
"In the long-term thinking of the British, joining the euro is an issue," he contends. "The UK will introduce the euro. On the day that the British realise that the pound is a regional currency without any international influence, they will join."
May be my memory is failing me, but is this not the same "leading constitutional expert" who argued 12 years ago that it was unlawful for Prince Charles to marry Camilla Parker-Bowles (as she then was)?
Suppose I'm worried about Corbyn and I want to get money out of the country in advance.
Say I go to Bank of America in London and deposit £1million - what is the determinator of where that money is located? Could I just say "Deposit it in New York"?
ie How is location defined in a world of electronic banking?
The thinking is obviously to get the money outside the boundary of possible exchange controls.
as far as possible.
You need to open a bank account at an American branch and wire it to there. That way your "loan" (deposit) is to a US entity, not to a UK subsidiary of a US firm.
Bitcoin.
Which version?
Hah! Good question.
Short answer is DYOR, longer answer is that both forks have merits and I'm holding both coins. I think BTC has the overwhelming support of the majority of the community but BCH is more 'ideologically pure'. BTC is a financial instrument now but it's very plain to see it was intended as a political one, that being the case, I wouldn't write off BCH's chances entirely. Equally so if I had a sum to deposit and I could only choose one, I'd choose BTC over BCH in a heartbeat - BCH doesn't have nearly enough support behind it.
But seriously - bitcoin was invented to answer the question MikeL was posting about. It puts currency beyond the control of central governments and that is its true value.
Suppose I'm worried about Corbyn and I want to get money out of the country in advance.
Say I go to Bank of America in London and deposit £1million - what is the determinator of where that money is located? Could I just say "Deposit it in New York"?
ie How is location defined in a world of electronic banking?
The thinking is obviously to get the money outside the boundary of possible exchange controls.
as far as possible.
You need to open a bank account at an American branch and wire it to there. That way your "loan" (deposit) is to a US entity, not to a UK subsidiary of a US firm.
Bitcoin.
I wonder Charles if my Guernsey account with Lloyds could hold cash outside of Corbyn's control?
My view, as someone who knows Corbyn better than most here, is that he has no very strong preference on EU membership, and would be perfectly happy to offer a new referendum if it was clear that most voters wanted it and it would substantially increase the prospect of a Labour government able to do many other things we think desirable. People who question his ardour for the EU are right, but it's a misunderstanding to think he's passionately opposed.
Meanwhile, it's really worth reading the report linked to by Rottenborough on the last thread:
- they say the same finding happened for Brexit, asnd it substantially supports the theory - which I've never seen real evidence for before - that people swing behind a perceived winner. Initially I thought this was just confirmatory bias - people voting Labour being more likely to say they thought Labour would win, meh - but in fact the methodology avoids this by looking at how the thinking of the same people evolves over time. Apparently, as people become more convinced that someone will win, they also become more likely to support them.
This still doesn't quite take us out of confirmatory bias, though. It's possible that what people are doing is projecting their improved view - "since I've come to like Corbyn/Brexit more, I assume that others are coming to the same conclusion and they're more likely to win than I thought". Nonetheless, it does suggest that momentum in politics plays an important role.
I am not sure where some people get the impression that he is hard Brexiter. His biggest issue is Workers Rights, which clearly is more secure in the EU. After all, any Conservative government after Brexit could do anything they liked and we will be back in the days of Thatcher.
Momentum supporters are overwhelmingly Remainers as are almost 75% of all Labour voters. The position Labour took in the election was very astute. Starmer is clearly hinting at changes.
Just been to see Dunkirk and I'm disappointed. Lots of amazing action and cinematography with fantastic sound but very short on story. It doesn't compare at all with Saving Private Ryan or even the BBC2 series 15 years ago. There has to be a narrative.
Actually, what that article shows is that when you suddenly turn your back on your trading partners with whom you have spent years building relationships then they are not so keen to have you back.
True, the winning margin was only 3.8%, and it was true that for much of the night of 23/24 June, as the results came in, it could have gone either way. I personally was prepared to wake up in the morning to a REMAIN victory. But in the end, that didn’t happen. As the results started to trickle in, I decided to stay up, and almost against all the odds (and more pertinently for our blog, the betting!), LEAVE pulled it off. The result was LEAVE 52%, REMAIN 48%. Or, for fans of decimal points, LEAVE 51.9%, REMAIN 48.1%, on a turnout of 72.2%. The nearest-run thing indeed!
Suppose I'm worried about Corbyn and I want to get money out of the country in advance.
Say I go to Bank of America in London and deposit £1million - what is the determinator of where that money is located? Could I just say "Deposit it in New York"?
ie How is location defined in a world of electronic banking?
The thinking is obviously to get the money outside the boundary of possible exchange controls.
as far as possible.
You need to open a bank account at an American branch and wire it to there. That way your "loan" (deposit) is to a US entity, not to a UK subsidiary of a US firm.
jeremy warner ✔ @JeremyWarnerUK Scary chart from Fathom Consulting. Can anyone explain why Chinese debt growth to levels last seen in property bubble Japan are "safe"?
Suppose I'm worried about Corbyn and I want to get money out of the country in advance.
Say I go to Bank of America in London and deposit £1million - what is the determinator of where that money is located? Could I just say "Deposit it in New York"?
ie How is location defined in a world of electronic banking?
The thinking is obviously to get the money outside the boundary of possible exchange controls.
as far as possible.
You need to open a bank account at an American branch and wire it to there. That way your "loan" (deposit) is to a US entity, not to a UK subsidiary of a US firm.
Bitcoin.
I wonder Charles if my Guernsey account with Lloyds could hold cash outside of Corbyn's control?
Don't know Guernsey rules specifically (@CarlottaVance) might do. But still at least partially within the UK ambit, and a UK bank, so presumably more risk.
It's all questions of degree. You are probably more exposed on your house price than you are on currency controls.
Just been to see Dunkirk and I'm disappointed. Lots of amazing action and cinematography with fantastic sound but very short on story. It doesn't compare at all with Saving Private Ryan or even the BBC2 series 15 years ago. There has to be a narrative.
You mean that rescuing 300,000 soldiers from impending doom isn't enough of a narrative?
Just been to see Dunkirk and I'm disappointed. Lots of amazing action and cinematography with fantastic sound but very short on story. It doesn't compare at all with Saving Private Ryan or even the BBC2 series 15 years ago. There has to be a narrative.
I went yesterday and I know what you mean. It is a remarkable film, with an outstanding soundtrack, and it keeps the tension high throughout as an experiential film like the two battle segments in Ryan (in which the rather lame storyline wasn't an entirely successful interlude). But the continuity between the different air/sea/beach timelines was confusing; the same incidents are seen from different perspectives at different times, and there is next to no plot or character development at all. And there are a fair few historical bloopers.
Instead of "what happened?" the film sets out to answer the question "what was it like to be there?", and on those terms it succeeds and will doubtless win lots of awards. But it has taken the Ryan-style Omaha Beach inside-the-action battle scene genre as far as it will go.
If the Scots had voted 52:48 for independence (on the basis of a prospectus that could charitably be described as a pack of lies extremely optimistic), would we be calling now for a re-run?
Just been to see Dunkirk and I'm disappointed. Lots of amazing action and cinematography with fantastic sound but very short on story. It doesn't compare at all with Saving Private Ryan or even the BBC2 series 15 years ago. There has to be a narrative.
Sorry but there is no way that Mike should be allowed to get away with this thread header which fails to mention Bogdanor's lifelong campaigning for British membership of a fully Federal Europe. He makes Williamglenn look like a UKIP voter.
Quoting him as some sort of Independent authority is the equivalent of claiming Farage as a neutral commentator.
Just been to see Dunkirk and I'm disappointed. Lots of amazing action and cinematography with fantastic sound but very short on story. It doesn't compare at all with Saving Private Ryan or even the BBC2 series 15 years ago. There has to be a narrative.
You mean that rescuing 300,000 soldiers from impending doom isn't enough of a narrative?
Sorry but there is no way that Mike should be allowed to get away with this thread header which fails to mention Bogdanor's lifelong campaigning for British membership of a fully Federal Europe. He makes Williamglenn look like a UKIP voter.
Quoting him as some sort of Independent authority is the equivalent of claiming Farage as a neutral commentator.
Why not deal with his arguments rather than attack the man?
My view, as someone who knows Corbyn better than most here, is that he has no very strong preference on EU membership, and would be perfectly happy to offer a new referendum if it was clear that most voters wanted it and it would substantially increase the prospect of a Labour government able to do many other things we think desirable. People who question his ardour for the EU are right, but it's a misunderstanding to think he's passionately opposed.
Meanwhile, it's really worth reading the report linked to by Rottenborough on the last thread:
- they say the same finding happened for Brexit, asnd it substantially supports the theory - which I've never seen real evidence for before - that people swing behind a perceived winner. Initially I thought this was just confirmatory bias - people voting Labour being more likely to say they thought Labour would win, meh - but in fact the methodology avoids this by looking at how the thinking of the same people evolves over time. Apparently, as people become more convinced that someone will win, they also become more likely to support them.
This still doesn't quite take us out of confirmatory bias, though. It's possible that what people are doing is projecting their improved view - "since I've come to like Corbyn/Brexit more, I assume that others are coming to the same conclusion and they're more likely to win than I thought". Nonetheless, it does suggest that momentum in politics plays an important role.
Is it the case though that nationalisations and increased state intervention in industry are more easily carried out outside the EU?
The French have more state intervention in their economy than I've had hot dinners.... the EU doesn't seem to stop them.
I agree with NickP that Corbyn to me just seems basically indifferent to the EU, rather than actively opposed to it. IF it became clear that the overwhelming majority of the public wanted to abort Brexit, I think he'd go along with it - but that's unlikely to happen, and Jez doesn't care enough about it to spend political capital on it by going all-out to change people's minds (whereas he does care enough to spend political capital when it comes to, say, opposing welfare cuts).
Sorry but there is no way that Mike should be allowed to get away with this thread header which fails to mention Bogdanor's lifelong campaigning for British membership of a fully Federal Europe. He makes Williamglenn look like a UKIP voter.
Quoting him as some sort of Independent authority is the equivalent of claiming Farage as a neutral commentator.
Why not deal with his arguments rather than attack the man?
Because you have quoted him as a neutral authority and since he is not well known it is worth pointing out his bias. As a former council member of the Federal Trust he has as balanced a view on these issues as a member of the EU Commission.
Moreover his arguments are partial and clearly based on his own bias. Much like most of yours.
Just been to see Dunkirk and I'm disappointed. Lots of amazing action and cinematography with fantastic sound but very short on story. It doesn't compare at all with Saving Private Ryan or even the BBC2 series 15 years ago. There has to be a narrative.
Unprecedented for a judge to express himself in such terms. One hopes that a solution can be found. A suicidal teenager may not have the same "aaah" factor as a small baby but, still, a life that could be saved.
My view, as someone who knows Corbyn better than most here, is that he has no very strong preference on EU membership, and would be perfectly happy to offer a new referendum if it was clear that most voters wanted it and it would substantially increase the prospect of a Labour government able to do many other things we think desirable. People who question his ardour for the EU are right, but it's a misunderstanding to think he's passionately opposed.
Meanwhile, it's really worth reading the report linked to by Rottenborough on the last thread:
- they say the same finding happened for Brexit, asnd it substantially supports the theory - which I've never seen real evidence for before - that people swing behind a perceived winner. Initially I thought this was just confirmatory bias - people voting Labour being more likely to say they thought Labour would win, meh - but in fact the methodology avoids this by looking at how the thinking of the same people evolves over time. Apparently, as people become more convinced that someone will win, they also become more likely to support them.
This still doesn't quite take us out of confirmatory bias, though. It's possible that what people are doing is projecting their improved view - "since I've come to like Corbyn/Brexit more, I assume that others are coming to the same conclusion and they're more likely to win than I thought". Nonetheless, it does suggest that momentum in politics plays an important role.
Is it the case though that nationalisations and increased state intervention in industry are more easily carried out outside the EU?
The French have more state intervention in their economy than I've had hot dinners.... the EU doesn't seem to stop them.
I agree with NickP that Corbyn to me just seems basically indifferent to the EU, rather than actively opposed to it. IF it became clear that the overwhelming majority of the public wanted to abort Brexit, I think he'd go along with it - but that's unlikely to happen, and Jez doesn't care enough about it to spend political capital on it by going all-out to change people's minds (whereas he does care enough to spend political capital when it comes to, say, opposing welfare cuts).
Isn't that something to do with being French though. Brits don't like ignoring the rulebook. It strikes me life for John McD as chancellor would become easier outside the EU.
Sorry but there is no way that Mike should be allowed to get away with this thread header which fails to mention Bogdanor's lifelong campaigning for British membership of a fully Federal Europe. He makes Williamglenn look like a UKIP voter.
Quoting him as some sort of Independent authority is the equivalent of claiming Farage as a neutral commentator.
Remember the Remainer creed: Remainers are neutral experts, Leavers are headbangers and extremists.
I don't know about you but as somebody not involved in selling or taking drugs it is the sort of thing I regular carry on me on a daily basis and would definitely try and get rid if the police tried to stop me...
Sorry but there is no way that Mike should be allowed to get away with this thread header which fails to mention Bogdanor's lifelong campaigning for British membership of a fully Federal Europe. He makes Williamglenn look like a UKIP voter.
Quoting him as some sort of Independent authority is the equivalent of claiming Farage as a neutral commentator.
Why not deal with his arguments rather than attack the man?
Remainers (including you, I'm afraid with "Brextremist") spent much of their time throwing insults and personal attacks at Leavers making their arguments.
Just been to see Dunkirk and I'm disappointed. Lots of amazing action and cinematography with fantastic sound but very short on story. It doesn't compare at all with Saving Private Ryan or even the BBC2 series 15 years ago. There has to be a narrative.
I thought it was excellent but I can understand why it might not be for everyone. The Dunkirk scenes in Atonement were pretty impressive, to mention another film depiction.
And to answer a question posed on the other thread - my concern isn't the Lab manifesto. Whilst I disagree with it, if they implemented it (full stop) I don't think I would need to think about leaving the country.
My concern is about a spiral out of control - heading in the direction of a Venezuela. Obviously that would be very extreme and it would take a long time to get anywhere remotely near that bad.
But reversing BoE independence would be the sort of thing not in the manifesto which could be a precursor to wild policies which could start us at least heading in that direction.
I have very little sympathy for those who swallowed the Daily Mail's dystopic imaginings about a Corbyn Government but they use Dominic Sandbrook who's a right-wing polemicist not a historian.
To bring it back to basics, a Government only has to ensure two things happen - the administration of law and the distribution of food. As long as the supply of food remains unchanged and there is enough law enforcement to maintain social order and cohesion, it doesn't really matter which party is in charge.
I wouldn't expect Britain to become Venezuela under Corbyn.
I just think it would be quite unpleasant for people like me.
If I may ask, is that because of your relative wealth, colour, political views or just because you're a lawyer?
I'm not rich, but I have enough assets to be a target for a radical socialist government. I'd expect to see all kinds of reverse discrimination. I don't think Corbyn has anything against lawyers, though.
Remainers (including you, I'm afraid with "Brextremist") spent much of their time throwing insults and personal attacks at Leavers making their arguments.
Pots and kettles. Glasshouses, stones.
You do have a point, Casino, but elements on both sides haven't exactly comported themselves with dignity since 23/6/16.
Let me be honest - if you want a more pro-Brexit stance, why not write a piece for the forum ? You seem a person of erudition and eloquence - put up the argument why Brexit will be a success and how much better off 2020s Britain will be outside the EU.
Remainers (including you, I'm afraid with "Brextremist") spent much of their time throwing insults and personal attacks at Leavers making their arguments.
Pots and kettles. Glasshouses, stones.
You do have a point, Casino, but elements on both sides haven't exactly comported themselves with dignity since 23/6/16.
Let me be honest - if you want a more pro-Brexit stance, why not write a piece for the forum ? You seem a person of erudition and eloquence - put up the argument why Brexit will be a success and how much better off 2020s Britain will be outside the EU.
Unprecedented for a judge to express himself in such terms. One hopes that a solution can be found. A suicidal teenager may not have the same "aaah" factor as a small baby but, still, a life that could be saved.
This is a deeply concerning story and, quite frankly, far more significant than Charlie Gard's parents' battle against reality.
I don't know about you but as somebody not involved in selling or taking drugs it is the sort of thing I regular carry on me on a daily basis and would definitely try and get rid if the police tried to stop me...
So not only was he a drug dealer, but he was selling fake drugs and ripping off punters ?
I don't know about you but as somebody not involved in selling or taking drugs it is the sort of thing I regular carry on me on a daily basis and would definitely try and get rid if the police tried to stop me...
The pertinent question would be to wonder if he knew that what he had in the 'baggie' was Paracetamol and Caffeine. His actions tend towards the idea that he might not have done. Did someone sell him something pertaining to be something else maybe?
My view, as someone who knows Corbyn better than most here, is that he has no very strong preference on EU membership
That's why he spent his entire career, up to 2015, campaigning against and voting against the EU at every turn?
Not really. His "entire career" has been made up of campaigns on all kinds of things - for all the time I've known him, the EU has been a minor key, and I don't actually remember his campaigning to leave. He opposes the free market bias - the ban on subsidies, the difficulties thrown up against any restraint of trade - but he sees the advatanges for workers' rights, on on balance, as he says, thinks it about 7 out of 10. He always says what he thinks, even when it's clearly inconvenient, so it's a mistake to imagine that he's got a cunning plot on this.
I don't know about you but as somebody not involved in selling or taking drugs it is the sort of thing I regular carry on me on a daily basis and would definitely try and get rid if the police tried to stop me...
So not only was he a drug dealer, but he was selling fake drugs and ripping off punters ?
Why somebody not involved in anything to do with drugs would be carrying such a wrap and then swallow it when approached by the police is a total mystery.
Remainers (including you, I'm afraid with "Brextremist") spent much of their time throwing insults and personal attacks at Leavers making their arguments.
Pots and kettles. Glasshouses, stones.
You do have a point, Casino, but elements on both sides haven't exactly comported themselves with dignity since 23/6/16.
Let me be honest - if you want a more pro-Brexit stance, why not write a piece for the forum ? You seem a person of erudition and eloquence - put up the argument why Brexit will be a success and how much better off 2020s Britain will be outside the EU.
The argument is not about who writes threads. I have written two threads from a pro Brexit position and never had any problem getting them published.
The issue is the habit of Remainers quoting supposed neutral authorities when they know full well they are anything but neutral. It would tske no effort at all to point out their leanings particularly when they are less well known figures holding extreme views but for some reason Mike would prefer that was not known.
Michael Gove has told the Danish fishing industry that boats from EU countries will still be able to operate in UK waters after Brexit, as the UK does not have enough capacity to catch and process all its fish alone.
OK - completely off topic but a question for the PB brains trust and/pr Stodge's valet.
I want to upgrade my computer (my Apple Mac being ca a decade old). A laptop would be good. I will have a website and be creating documents and presentations. It needs to be reliable. I don't need super fast gaming. It needs to be easy to use - as I will be my own IT department. And to have plenty of storage.
So Apple or not. What is Chrome? Etc etc. Any recommendations?
Thanks in advance.
A vm will do.
I'd be interested to know how long people have managed to make Windows laptops last as effective machines?
Until 2011 I went through a series of Windows PCs/laptops, then I bought a Macbook Air. I don't think any of the Windows machines managed to operate effectively for more than four years. Six years into my Macbook ownership and it's still performing as effectively as new (in sharp contrast to an IPad bought the same year, it has to be said!). The only issues with the Macbook are that it has a number of dents and dings around the edges, from being dropped a few times.
I feel I ought to be buying somethng newer, but why bother?!
Michael Gove has told the Danish fishing industry that boats from EU countries will still be able to operate in UK waters after Brexit, as the UK does not have enough capacity to catch and process all its fish alone.
As various people have said, Bogdanor has followed up reasonable analysis with groundless assertion. He says (correctly) that some Britons suffer from the imperial impulse, expecting the rest of the world to adjust to our requirements. At the same time, he falls victim to that impulse by implying that it's up to Britain if we want to stay or not, ignoring the views of the 27.
That said, I can well see in September 2018 Macron and Merkel making a joint statement, in English, about how they want the UK to stay, even if it means retaining our opt-outs and/or the rebate. It would be an electrifying moment in British politics, and could make the Remainer Tory MPs want to roll the dice, even though the consequences for their party will be catastrophic.
Michael Gove has told the Danish fishing industry that boats from EU countries will still be able to operate in UK waters after Brexit, as the UK does not have enough capacity to catch and process all its fish alone.
But when we do have capacity then what do you think will happen?
Michael Gove has told the Danish fishing industry that boats from EU countries will still be able to operate in UK waters after Brexit, as the UK does not have enough capacity to catch and process all its fish alone.
I see that the BES confirms the SNP losses were mainly due to Brexit with the SNP losing 40% of those who voted LEAVE.
40*25% of SNP voters who voted leave = 10%
50% - 10% = 40% SNP actually got 37% so almost all of their vote loss was influenced heavily by their anti brexit stance, which really vindicates Corbyns stance of not calling for a second referendum.
I don't know about you but as somebody not involved in selling or taking drugs it is the sort of thing I regular carry on me on a daily basis and would definitely try and get rid if the police tried to stop me...
So not only was he a drug dealer, but he was selling fake drugs and ripping off punters ?
Why somebody not involved in anything to do with drugs would be carrying such a wrap and then swallow it when approached by the police is a total mystery.
I know what it was....it was actually he was on the way to the gym and it was his pre-work out compound and he simply forgot to unwrap it before taking it.
I don't know about you but as somebody not involved in selling or taking drugs it is the sort of thing I regular carry on me on a daily basis and would definitely try and get rid if the police tried to stop me...
LOL! This morning the news was that it wasn't a controlled substance and reported in a way to insinuate he had done nothing wrong.
You do realise that Saving Private Ryan was mostly fictional?
Haha, I'd be surprised if anyone on here doesn't already appreciate that Sunil.
It made me smile though because there seem to be a rash of trailers at the flicks recently carrying the strapline "Based on a true story!" as though that is any kind of endorsement. Whilst enduring the trailers ahead of Dunkirk last week one popped up for "Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets"; I was most disappointed not to see it qualified as "Based on a true story!"
Michael Gove has told the Danish fishing industry that boats from EU countries will still be able to operate in UK waters after Brexit, as the UK does not have enough capacity to catch and process all its fish alone.
I saw this yesterday (though not from this source). I'm a bit nonplussed by this and why anyone should think that it's an odd suggestion. The point of controlling your waters is to conserve stocks properly, not to ban foreign vessels.
The CFP up until very recently has been a complete disaster both for UK commercial fishing (which it was always designed to be, right from 1970 when it was thrust upon the dimwitted Heath at the last moment by Brussels) and for conservation (a consequential side effect).
Returning to UK based controls is sensible, allowing others quotas to fish is also reasonable.
OK - completely off topic but a question for the PB brains trust and/pr Stodge's valet.
I want to upgrade my computer (my Apple Mac being ca a decade old). A laptop would be good. I will have a website and be creating documents and presentations. It needs to be reliable. I don't need super fast gaming. It needs to be easy to use - as I will be my own IT department. And to have plenty of storage.
So Apple or not. What is Chrome? Etc etc. Any recommendations?
Thanks in advance.
A vm will do.
I'd be interested to know how long people have managed to make Windows laptops last as effective machines?
Until 2011 I went through a series of Windows PCs/laptops, then I bought a Macbook Air. I don't think any of the Windows machines managed to operate effectively for more than four years. Six years into my Macbook ownership and it's still performing as effectively as new (in sharp contrast to an IPad bought the same year, it has to be said!). The only issues with the Macbook are that it has a number of dents and dings around the edges, from being dropped a few times.
I feel I ought to be buying somethng newer, but why bother?!
I think there's still one software factory I know that uses a 1997/8 vintage Acorn Network Computer as a network monitor. Obscure ancient hardware wins every time!
There is no basis for a second referendum whatever.
There is precisely the same "basis" for a second referendum as there was for the first one
That's not quite true. Cameron's Conservatives were elected in 2015 on a mandate to deliver one (whether they intended to or not). Almost nobody has been returned to parliament on that mandate at the 2017 election.
I don't know about you but as somebody not involved in selling or taking drugs it is the sort of thing I regular carry on me on a daily basis and would definitely try and get rid if the police tried to stop me...
LOL! This morning the news was that it wasn't a controlled substance and reported in a way to insinuate he had done nothing wrong.
Lets not jump to conclusions. He might have just had a bad cold.
I really would like to see a reasoned argument that tells me we are going to be better out of the EU. It needs to go beyond "take back control" etc just tell me how we will be better off in ten years time without resorting to insults and codeming me for being a remoaner.
OK - completely off topic but a question for the PB brains trust and/pr Stodge's valet.
I want to upgrade my computer (my Apple Mac being ca a decade old). A laptop would be good. I will have a website and be creating documents and presentations. It needs to be reliable. I don't need super fast gaming. It needs to be easy to use - as I will be my own IT department. And to have plenty of storage.
So Apple or not. What is Chrome? Etc etc. Any recommendations?
Thanks in advance.
A vm will do.
I'd be interested to know how long people have managed to make Windows laptops last as effective machines?
Until 2011 I went through a series of Windows PCs/laptops, then I bought a Macbook Air. I don't think any of the Windows machines managed to operate effectively for more than four years. Six years into my Macbook ownership and it's still performing as effectively as new (in sharp contrast to an IPad bought the same year, it has to be said!). The only issues with the Macbook are that it has a number of dents and dings around the edges, from being dropped a few times.
I feel I ought to be buying somethng newer, but why bother?!
I've used Windows ever since it first appeared, and rarely had any problems at all. I think it's largely a question of what you're used to, like Pepsi vs Coke, and that's definitely the case with browsers, which for normal users seem virtually interchangeable (I use Firefox, Explorer and Chrome regularly on different machines and occasionally Edge). Apple is too much of a closed world for me - unnecessary learning curve to enter a protected system: I'veworked with a Mac, but it never felt as convenient. I know people who think exactly the opposite, of course.
There is no basis for a second referendum whatever.
There is precisely the same "basis" for a second referendum as there was for the first one
That's not quite true. Cameron's Conservatives were elected in 2015 on a mandate to deliver one (whether they intended to or not). Almost nobody has been returned to parliament on that mandate at the 2017 election.
Cameron was elected in 2015 on 36.9% of the national vote. Hardly a mandate for all the destruction that Brexit is bringing.
As various people have said, Bogdanor has followed up reasonable analysis with groundless assertion. He says (correctly) that some Britons suffer from the imperial impulse, expecting the rest of the world to adjust to our requirements. At the same time, he falls victim to that impulse by implying that it's up to Britain if we want to stay or not, ignoring the views of the 27.
That said, I can well see in September 2018 Macron and Merkel making a joint statement, in English, about how they want the UK to stay, even if it means retaining our opt-outs and/or the rebate. It would be an electrifying moment in British politics, and could make the Remainer Tory MPs want to roll the dice, even though the consequences for their party will be catastrophic.
That would indeed be interesting but frankly, why would they still want us? We've been nothing but a complete PITA for the EU for many years. I suspect they'll wait until/to-see-if we come crawling back on our hands and knees asking for re-admittance in 10-20 years time.
There is no basis for a second referendum whatever.
There is precisely the same "basis" for a second referendum as there was for the first one
When we finally leave in March 2019 there is absolutely nothing to stop you and others that share the same sentiment in campaigning for a referendum to join again.
It took us 40 years to get one, it will probably take you longer.
As various people have said, Bogdanor has followed up reasonable analysis with groundless assertion. He says (correctly) that some Britons suffer from the imperial impulse, expecting the rest of the world to adjust to our requirements. At the same time, he falls victim to that impulse by implying that it's up to Britain if we want to stay or not, ignoring the views of the 27.
That said, I can well see in September 2018 Macron and Merkel making a joint statement, in English, about how they want the UK to stay, even if it means retaining our opt-outs and/or the rebate. It would be an electrifying moment in British politics, and could make the Remainer Tory MPs want to roll the dice, even though the consequences for their party will be catastrophic.
Sounds credible to me, though it's possible to underestimate the fedupness on the Continent. EiT is right that if we said we wanted to stay, the rest would say ffs, oh, all right. Whether they'd take the initiative, though?
Apple is too much of a closed world for me - unnecessary learning curve to enter a protected system: I'veworked with a Mac, but it never felt as convenient. I know people who think exactly the opposite, of course.
I am writing this in firefox on a Windows 10 virtual machine, running on a Mac...
It's not at all supportive of the narrative we Remainers believe and have been pushing but in the spirit of fairness I thought I'd pop it on here, in case you haven't seen it.
As various people have said, Bogdanor has followed up reasonable analysis with groundless assertion. He says (correctly) that some Britons suffer from the imperial impulse, expecting the rest of the world to adjust to our requirements. At the same time, he falls victim to that impulse by implying that it's up to Britain if we want to stay or not, ignoring the views of the 27.
That said, I can well see in September 2018 Macron and Merkel making a joint statement, in English, about how they want the UK to stay, even if it means retaining our opt-outs and/or the rebate. It would be an electrifying moment in British politics, and could make the Remainer Tory MPs want to roll the dice, even though the consequences for their party will be catastrophic.
Sounds credible to me, though it's possible to underestimate the fedupness on the Continent. EiT is right that if we said we wanted to stay, the rest would say ffs, oh, all right. Whether they'd take the initiative, though?
I think the prospect of retaining the second-largest contributor and winning a permanent place in the pantheon of EU heroes would be more than enough to motivate Merkel and Macron. Waiting 10-20 years doesn't fit their career plans, and would not be realistic as we would diverge significantly in that period.
Merkel can then point out to avoiding Grexit and cancelling Brexit as her achievements. She will be untouchable.
There is no basis for a second referendum whatever.
There is precisely the same "basis" for a second referendum as there was for the first one
When we finally leave in March 2019 there is absolutely nothing to stop you and others that share the same sentiment in campaigning for a referendum to join again.
It took us 40 years to get one, it will probably take you longer.
If Brexit goes as well as you believe, I agree it will take a lot longer than 40 year to get a 'Brejoin' referendum; on the other hand if it all goes badly pear-shaped on us, we could easily have one within 5-10 years imo.
There is no basis for a second referendum whatever.
There is precisely the same "basis" for a second referendum as there was for the first one
That's not quite true. Cameron's Conservatives were elected in 2015 on a mandate to deliver one (whether they intended to or not). Almost nobody has been returned to parliament on that mandate at the 2017 election.
Cameron was elected in 2015 on 36.9% of the national vote. Hardly a mandate for all the destruction that Brexit is bringing.
Come on Mike, you know full well what a Parliamentary majority is and means. The referendum was in the Conservative Manifesto, and remain fully expected to win, which would have killed off Brexit forever.
Comments
That's one of the reasons Breivik was so disturbing. We're lucky that people of his ilk appear very rare.
The people have voted to leave, it's up to the government/parliament to determine the form of departure. If they can't agree then the default is no deal.
Vernon is a nice man (he was my tutor at Oxford) but is very keen to further embed the UK into the EU - he's a believer in a federal Europe. This is a political case, not an academic case, that he is making and should be treated as such. It might be right or wrong, but it's not special because it's "Vernon" making it.
At the end of the negotiation there will be two options.
1. Accept the governments deal.
2. Crash out to WTO rules.
MP's won't risk the public actually voting to crash out in a second referendum so they'll vote for the governments deal in the end.
Lenovos come in all qualities. Get the same level as the T430, or higher, and it should last well.
Dell 'commercial quality' laptops should also last quite a long time, even in constant use, I've heard of 6-10 years.
Most IT equipment is 'consumer quality', a.k.a. tat. It won't even last 2 yrs in regular use, especially not the keyboard.
HTH.
You need to open a bank account at an American branch and wire it to there. That way your "loan" (deposit) is to a US entity, not to a UK subsidiary of a US firm.
In the past I had dells and was pretty happy with them. I currently have a Lenovo (courtesy of my better half) and would not recommend it but perhaps she did not get the highest spec.
If you want the adventure that is Windows 10, Thinkpads are the best I have used. I bought a 770 in 1998. It still works (a bit slow though).
I buy mine from these guys
itxchange.com
They sell end of line stock
For example
https://shop.itxchange.com/OA_HTML/products-Lenovo-ThinkPad-X26020F5S2XJ00-01-882755.jsp
They also sell spares if you want to keep your kit running longer
Parliament's voting down a bad Brexit deal if the government line is still 'deal or no deal' will be a serious act of faith on whether the cabinet's mood is sufficiently shaken to look at the no deal cliff, the public mood and go, "you know what, a second referendum is not a bad idea". It could be, though, that the government softens in the run up to a parliamentary vote, making rejection easier. Labour MPs may also have to rebel against Corbyn pushing bad Brexit, but that would be the easiest rebellion of the last few years, reading the government will be a bigger worry.
I'm certain this route presages brutal internal party feuding, but it doesn't need or materially change a vote of no confidence calculation, even if defections ensue. But then going through with bad Brexit also presages epic feuding. Survival instinct will be a big player.
I rate a second referendum is about a 20% chance, and the circumstances that bring it about make a remain win about an 80% chance should it happen.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/jun/18/how-ken-clarke-saved-the-euro
Ken Clarke single-handedly saved the euro in the 1990s, says Juncker
Clarke, three months into the job of chancellor after succeeding Lamont, would have none of it and rode to Europe's rescue, Juncker says in an interview published on Saturday in Munich's Süddeutsche Zeitung.
"Clarke came and organised an even smaller secret meeting. If you go, he told me, everything will collapse. You will never get this thing again. There will be no currency union. But I would like that we can join it one day."
Clarke's starring role in resuscitating the infant euro left a lasting impression on Juncker, who has attended more than 90 EU summits and is a walking encyclopaedia on European politics.
The Luxembourger, who also chairs the eurogroup of the 17 countries in the single currency, appears convinced that the UK will eventually see the light.
"In the long-term thinking of the British, joining the euro is an issue," he contends. "The UK will introduce the euro. On the day that the British realise that the pound is a regional currency without any international influence, they will join."
Meanwhile, it's really worth reading the report linked to by Rottenborough on the last thread:
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/did-people-vote-for-jeremy-corbyn-because-they-thought-he-would-lose/#.WYNLd4jytPa
- they say the same finding happened for Brexit, asnd it substantially supports the theory - which I've never seen real evidence for before - that people swing behind a perceived winner. Initially I thought this was just confirmatory bias - people voting Labour being more likely to say they thought Labour would win, meh - but in fact the methodology avoids this by looking at how the thinking of the same people evolves over time. Apparently, as people become more convinced that someone will win, they also become more likely to support them.
This still doesn't quite take us out of confirmatory bias, though. It's possible that what people are doing is projecting their improved view - "since I've come to like Corbyn/Brexit more, I assume that others are coming to the same conclusion and they're more likely to win than I thought". Nonetheless, it does suggest that momentum in politics plays an important role.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/sorry-boris-johnson-britain-has-little-to-offer-australia-20170731-gxm1di.html
Short answer is DYOR, longer answer is that both forks have merits and I'm holding both coins. I think BTC has the overwhelming support of the majority of the community but BCH is more 'ideologically pure'. BTC is a financial instrument now but it's very plain to see it was intended as a political one, that being the case, I wouldn't write off BCH's chances entirely. Equally so if I had a sum to deposit and I could only choose one, I'd choose BTC over BCH in a heartbeat - BCH doesn't have nearly enough support behind it.
But seriously - bitcoin was invented to answer the question MikeL was posting about. It puts currency beyond the control of central governments and that is its true value.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/893112642793091072
Momentum supporters are overwhelmingly Remainers as are almost 75% of all Labour voters. The position Labour took in the election was very astute. Starmer is clearly hinting at changes.
True, the winning margin was only 3.8%, and it was true that for much of the night of 23/24 June, as the results came in, it could have gone either way. I personally was prepared to wake up in the morning to a REMAIN victory. But in the end, that didn’t happen. As the results started to trickle in, I decided to stay up, and almost against all the odds (and more pertinently for our blog, the betting!), LEAVE pulled it off. The result was LEAVE 52%, REMAIN 48%. Or, for fans of decimal points, LEAVE 51.9%, REMAIN 48.1%, on a turnout of 72.2%. The nearest-run thing indeed!
jeremy warner ✔ @JeremyWarnerUK
Scary chart from Fathom Consulting. Can anyone explain why Chinese debt growth to levels last seen in property bubble Japan are "safe"?
It's all questions of degree. You are probably more exposed on your house price than you are on currency controls.
Instead of "what happened?" the film sets out to answer the question "what was it like to be there?", and on those terms it succeeds and will doubtless win lots of awards. But it has taken the Ryan-style Omaha Beach inside-the-action battle scene genre as far as it will go.
a pack of liesextremely optimistic), would we be calling now for a re-run?Quoting him as some sort of Independent authority is the equivalent of claiming Farage as a neutral commentator.
I agree with NickP that Corbyn to me just seems basically indifferent to the EU, rather than actively opposed to it. IF it became clear that the overwhelming majority of the public wanted to abort Brexit, I think he'd go along with it - but that's unlikely to happen, and Jez doesn't care enough about it to spend political capital on it by going all-out to change people's minds (whereas he does care enough to spend political capital when it comes to, say, opposing welfare cuts).
Moreover his arguments are partial and clearly based on his own bias. Much like most of yours.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/ywp8k5/researcher-who-stopped-wannacry-ransomware-detained-in-us-after-def-con
Unprecedented for a judge to express himself in such terms. One hopes that a solution can be found. A suicidal teenager may not have the same "aaah" factor as a small baby but, still, a life that could be saved.
It strikes me life for John McD as chancellor would become easier outside the EU.
In a statement, the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC) said the package was "wrapped in plastic".
Paracetamol and caffeine mix 'in Rashan Charles' throat'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-40820
I don't know about you but as somebody not involved in selling or taking drugs it is the sort of thing I regular carry on me on a daily basis and would definitely try and get rid if the police tried to stop me...
Pots and kettles. Glasshouses, stones.
Let me be honest - if you want a more pro-Brexit stance, why not write a piece for the forum ? You seem a person of erudition and eloquence - put up the argument why Brexit will be a success and how much better off 2020s Britain will be outside the EU.
The issue is the habit of Remainers quoting supposed neutral authorities when they know full well they are anything but neutral. It would tske no effort at all to point out their leanings particularly when they are less well known figures holding extreme views but for some reason Mike would prefer that was not known.
Michael Gove has told the Danish fishing industry that boats from EU countries will still be able to operate in UK waters after Brexit, as the UK does not have enough capacity to catch and process all its fish alone.
Until 2011 I went through a series of Windows PCs/laptops, then I bought a Macbook Air. I don't think any of the Windows machines managed to operate effectively for more than four years. Six years into my Macbook ownership and it's still performing as effectively as new (in sharp contrast to an IPad bought the same year, it has to be said!). The only issues with the Macbook are that it has a number of dents and dings around the edges, from being dropped a few times.
I feel I ought to be buying somethng newer, but why bother?!
As various people have said, Bogdanor has followed up reasonable analysis with groundless assertion. He says (correctly) that some Britons suffer from the imperial impulse, expecting the rest of the world to adjust to our requirements. At the same time, he falls victim to that impulse by implying that it's up to Britain if we want to stay or not, ignoring the views of the 27.
That said, I can well see in September 2018 Macron and Merkel making a joint statement, in English, about how they want the UK to stay, even if it means retaining our opt-outs and/or the rebate. It would be an electrifying moment in British politics, and could make the Remainer Tory MPs want to roll the dice, even though the consequences for their party will be catastrophic.
40*25% of SNP voters who voted leave = 10%
50% - 10% = 40% SNP actually got 37% so almost all of their vote loss was influenced heavily by their anti brexit stance, which really vindicates Corbyns stance of not calling for a second referendum.
It made me smile though because there seem to be a rash of trailers at the flicks recently carrying the strapline "Based on a true story!" as though that is any kind of endorsement. Whilst enduring the trailers ahead of Dunkirk last week one popped up for "Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets"; I was most disappointed not to see it qualified as "Based on a true story!"
The CFP up until very recently has been a complete disaster both for UK commercial fishing (which it was always designed to be, right from 1970 when it was thrust upon the dimwitted Heath at the last moment by Brussels) and for conservation (a consequential side effect).
Returning to UK based controls is sensible, allowing others quotas to fish is also reasonable.
It took us 40 years to get one, it will probably take you longer.
As you do
EDIT: I'd also not entirely characterise Dunkirk as a Defeat.
Bless...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/03/britains-finance-sector-will-double-in-size-in-25-years-says-mark-carney
It's not at all supportive of the narrative we Remainers believe and have been pushing but in the spirit of fairness I thought I'd pop it on here, in case you haven't seen it.
Tbh, even as a Remainer, I hope he's right!
Merkel can then point out to avoiding Grexit and cancelling Brexit as her achievements. She will be untouchable.