. . . Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
I assume you're talking about trade with the whole EU, not just Ireland. That would be best for consumers here. Do our producers need the protection of a tariff wall?
. . . Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
I assume you're talking about trade with the whole EU, not just Ireland. That would be best for consumers here. Do our producers need the protection of a tariff wall?
. . . Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
I assume you're talking about trade with the whole EU, not just Ireland. That would be best for consumers here. Do our producers need the protection of a tariff wall?
. . . Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
Ah, the devil is in the detail. I assume the Republic's government will have to impose some sort of thing because when we leave the EU (customs union, whateva) the Common External Tariff will come into effect. But it would apply to goods entering the Republic from the UK (GB + NI), not goods leaving it. So it would be imposed by the Republic on Ireland citizens purchasing UK goods, not on UK citizens purchasing Ireland goods.
Which raises the question: what do we import *into* the Republic?
However, the one person that should be really bothered is Merkel as the banning of petrol and diesell by 2040 by France and the UK is a hammer blow to the German car Industry that may come to it a lot lot sooner than anticipated
Why? Do you think the big 3.5 German car manufacturers will be incapable of producing a range of competitive electric cars?
The fall from grace of diesels has been remarkably rapid; their resale values are going to get hammered. My wife has just replaced her A7 TDI with a Panamera Hybrid which is only slightly less fuel efficient but delivers performance and a driving experience that's on another level.
Germany is pushing for an EU wide ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2030 which would be more aggressive than the French and British plan. You can bet the big players are going to be ready.
. . . Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
Ah, the devil is in the detail. I assume the Republic's government will have to impose some sort of thing because when we leave the EU (customs union, whateva) the Common External Tariff will come into effect. But it would apply to goods entering the Republic from the UK (GB + NI), not goods leaving it. So it would be imposed by the Republic on Ireland citizens purchasing UK goods, not on UK citizens purchasing Ireland goods.
Which raises the question: what do we import *into* the Republic?
The Irish Statistical Office says this:
Imports of goods amounted to €70.1bn in 2015 and €18bn (25.7%) of these imported goods arrived from the UK. The top 5 categories of goods imported from the UK in 2015 were: Petroleum, petroleum products & related materials (€1.9bn), Gas, natural & manufactured (€1.1bn), Miscellaneous manufactured articles n.e.s. (€1.1bn), Essential oils, perfume materials; toilet & cleansing preps (€0.8bn) and All other commodities and transactions (€0.7bn).
However, the one person that should be really bothered is Merkel as the banning of petrol and diesell by 2040 by France and the UK is a hammer blow to the German car Industry that may come to it a lot lot sooner than anticipated
Why? Do you think the big 3.5 German car manufacturers will be incapable of producing a range of competitive electric cars?
The fall from grace of diesels has been remarkably rapid; their resale values are going to get hammered. My wife has just replaced her A7 TDI with a Panamera Hybrid which is only slightly less fuel efficient but delivers performance and a driving experience that's on another level.
Seems the narrative is coming out of Germany that they have invested heavily in diesel and not so much in clean energy. They are also facing multiple class actions for collusion and the emission scandals that could cost them billions
I've got a petrol Mercedes convertible and these seem to be extraordinarily rare. At the moment there are 69 automatics for sale within 50 miles of me, of which 65 are diesels. I find that quite surreal. They clatter, they smell and with the roof down you are horribly exposed to both.
How old is your diesel Alice? Modern ones don't clatter or smell in my exprerience.
I don't have one but I can always tell a diesel standing near one.
Germany is pushing for an EU wide ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2030 which would be more aggressive than the French and British plan. You can bet the big players are going to be ready.
Germany is pushing for an EU wide ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2030 which would be more aggressive than the French and British plan. You can bet the big players are going to be ready.
Germany is pushing for an EU wide ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2030 which would be more aggressive than the French and British plan. You can bet the big players are going to be ready.
Germany is pushing for an EU wide ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2030 which would be more aggressive than the French and British plan. You can bet the big players are going to be ready.
Sounds like the new Irish PM is a bit frustrated with lack of progress and possibly getting a tad concerned. Some of his compromise suggestions sound as if they're in the right direction. Hopefully behind closed doors similar noises are being made to Barnier.
Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
We would have to apply zero tariffs on all our trade and not just the EU part of it, under WTO rules. Also tariffs aren't the main issue, it's market access or non-tariff barriers, which only comes from harmonisation.
Your basic point is correct, I believe. We don't have a lot of leverage in these negotiations, but Ireland is part of it. They will push the EU on our behalf if we work out something that will work for both countries.
Sounds like the new Irish PM is a bit frustrated with lack of progress and possibly getting a tad concerned. Some of his compromise suggestions sound as if they're in the right direction. Hopefully behind closed doors similar noises are being made to Barnier.
Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
We would have to apply zero tariffs on all our trade and not just the EU part of it, under WTO rules. . . .
Indeed, and why not? Do we have some infant industries we are anxious to protect? Consumers will enjoy lower prices. What's not to like?
Sounds like the new Irish PM is a bit frustrated with lack of progress and possibly getting a tad concerned. Some of his compromise suggestions sound as if they're in the right direction. Hopefully behind closed doors similar noises are being made to Barnier.
Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
We would have to apply zero tariffs on all our trade and not just the EU part of it, under WTO rules. Also tariffs aren't the main issue, it's market access or non-tariff barriers, which only comes from harmonisation.
Your basic point is correct, I believe. We don't have a lot of leverage in these negotiations, but Ireland is part of it. They will push the EU on our behalf if we work out something that will work for both countries.
Indeed. Personally the fewer tariffs the better all round. I accept it's not that simple (food standards is an example) but pretty much the fewer the better. I compete in world markets for my job, I expect others to as well.
I agree both we and the Irish want the same result on the border and trade etc, in that sense the EU are "in the way".
Germany is pushing for an EU wide ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2030 which would be more aggressive than the French and British plan. You can bet the big players are going to be ready.
Sounds like the new Irish PM is a bit frustrated with lack of progress and possibly getting a tad concerned. Some of his compromise suggestions sound as if they're in the right direction. Hopefully behind closed doors similar noises are being made to Barnier.
Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
We would have to apply zero tariffs on all our trade and not just the EU part of it, under WTO rules. . . .
Indeed, and why not? Do we have some infant industries we are anxious to protect? Consumers will enjoy lower prices. What's not to like?
The issue with trade, these days, is not tariffs. Across the developed world, they are (with a few exceptions) relatively modest. The issue is with the layers of regulation that determine what can and cannot be sold.
Sounds like the new Irish PM is a bit frustrated with lack of progress and possibly getting a tad concerned. Some of his compromise suggestions sound as if they're in the right direction. Hopefully behind closed doors similar noises are being made to Barnier.
Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
We would have to apply zero tariffs on all our trade and not just the EU part of it, under WTO rules. . . .
Indeed, and why not? Do we have some infant industries we are anxious to protect? Consumers will enjoy lower prices. What's not to like?
The issue with trade, these days, is not tariffs. Across the developed world, they are (with a few exceptions) relatively modest. The issue is with the layers of regulation that determine what can and cannot be sold.
Fine, we set the standards of products that are acceptable in our markets, and our exporters must accept the corresponding standards of the countries to which we export. These standards do not have to be harmonised, simply clear and non-discriminatory. By the way the agricultural tariffs into the EU in the CET are not insignificant.
Sounds like the new Irish PM is a bit frustrated with lack of progress and possibly getting a tad concerned. Some of his compromise suggestions sound as if they're in the right direction. Hopefully behind closed doors similar noises are being made to Barnier.
Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
We would have to apply zero tariffs on all our trade and not just the EU part of it, under WTO rules. . . .
Indeed, and why not? Do we have some infant industries we are anxious to protect? Consumers will enjoy lower prices. What's not to like?
The issue with trade, these days, is not tariffs. Across the developed world, they are (with a few exceptions) relatively modest. The issue is with the layers of regulation that determine what can and cannot be sold.
Fine, we set the standards of products that are acceptable in our markets, and our exporters must accept the corresponding standards of the countries to which we export. These standards do not have to be harmonised, simply clear and non-discriminatory. By the way the agricultural tariffs into the EU in the CET are not insignificant.
They are not. And one of the things we can look forward to post Brexit is cheaper food.
I am philosophically in agreement with you. But there's a reason the real world doesn't work like that. Our legislature would end up with producer capture. Standards would be imposed, thanks to copious amounts of lobbying, that would bear no relation to consumer needs, and everything to local manufacturers desire to limit competition.
They are not. And one of the things we can look forward to post Brexit is cheaper food.
For example? Usually when you drill down into food tariffs the major exporters into the EU already have preferential access and the CET doesn't apply. Unless Liam Fox gets his socks on prices are more likely to move in the other direction.
Sounds like the new Irish PM is a bit frustrated with lack of progress and possibly getting a tad concerned. Some of his compromise suggestions sound as if they're in the right direction. Hopefully behind closed doors similar noises are being made to Barnier.
Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
We would have to apply zero tariffs on all our trade and not just the EU part of it, under WTO rules. . . .
Indeed, and why not? Do we have some infant industries we are anxious to protect? Consumers will enjoy lower prices. What's not to like?
The issue with trade, these days, is not tariffs. Across the developed world, they are (with a few exceptions) relatively modest. The issue is with the layers of regulation that determine what can and cannot be sold.
Fine, we set the standards of products that are acceptable in our markets, and our exporters must accept the corresponding standards of the countries to which we export. These standards do not have to be harmonised, simply clear and non-discriminatory. By the way the agricultural tariffs into the EU in the CET are not insignificant.
Harmonisation does matter for exports. If we harmonise our standards for a particular product with the EU, which is our important market, that product can be exported to the EU simply by dint of it being traded here. If we apply different standards in the UK, exporters will have to show compliance with EU standards for every item that gets exported. It's a significant cost of doing business.
Sounds like the new Irish PM is a bit frustrated with lack of progress and possibly getting a tad concerned. Some of his compromise suggestions sound as if they're in the right direction. Hopefully behind closed doors similar noises are being made to Barnier.
Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
We would have to apply zero tariffs on all our trade and not just the EU part of it, under WTO rules. . . .
Indeed, and why not? Do we have some infant industries we are anxious to protect? Consumers will enjoy lower prices. What's not to like?
The issue with trade, these days, is not tariffs. Across the developed world, they are (with a few exceptions) relatively modest. The issue is with the layers of regulation that determine what can and cannot be sold.
Fine, we set the standards of products that are acceptable in our markets, and our exporters must accept the corresponding standards of the countries to which we export. These standards do not have to be harmonised, simply clear and non-discriminatory. By the way the agricultural tariffs into the EU in the CET are not insignificant.
They are not. And one of the things we can look forward to post Brexit is cheaper food.
I am philosophically in agreement with you. But there's a reason the real world doesn't work like that. Our legislature would end up with producer capture. Standards would be imposed, thanks to copious amounts of lobbying, that would bear no relation to consumer needs, and everything to local manufacturers desire to limit competition.
Just abolish tariffs on our imports. Producer interest lobbying can be eliminated after brexit by dismantling the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, or at least those bits of it open to such lobbying.
Sounds like the new Irish PM is a bit frustrated with lack of progress and possibly getting a tad concerned. Some of his compromise suggestions sound as if they're in the right direction. Hopefully behind closed doors similar noises are being made to Barnier.
Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
We would have to apply zero tariffs on all our trade and not just the EU part of it, under WTO rules. . . .
Indeed, and why not? Do we have some infant industries we are anxious to protect? Consumers will enjoy lower prices. What's not to like?
The issue with trade, these days, is not tariffs. Across the developed world, they are (with a few exceptions) relatively modest. The issue is with the layers of regulation that determine what can and cannot be sold.
Fine, we set the standards of products that are acceptable in our markets, and our exporters must accept the corresponding standards of the countries to which we export. These standards do not have to be harmonised, simply clear and non-discriminatory. By the way the agricultural tariffs into the EU in the CET are not insignificant.
Harmonisation does matter for exports. If we harmonise our standards for a particular product with the EU, which is our important market, that product can be exported to the EU simply by dint of it being traded here. If we apply different standards in the UK, exporters will have to show compliance with EU standards for every item that gets exported. It's a significant cost of doing business.
That's what US, Canadian, Japanese, Chinese etc etc firms have to do anyway. Hasn't been much of a hindrance to them.
Sounds like the new Irish PM is a bit frustrated with lack of progress and possibly getting a tad concerned. Some of his compromise suggestions sound as if they're in the right direction. Hopefully behind closed doors similar noises are being made to Barnier.
Thinking aloud, if there's no deal and on March 30th 2019 we say "ok as you were, no tariffs, no nothing in terms of restrictions as far as we are concerned with EU trade", does it not put the onus on the EU either likewise to do nothing or erect a border of sorts themselves across Ireland that's their doing not ours?
We would have to apply zero tariffs on all our trade and not just the EU part of it, under WTO rules. . . .
Indeed, and why not? Do we have some infant industries we are anxious to protect? Consumers will enjoy lower prices. What's not to like?
The issue with trade, these days, is not tariffs. Across the developed world, they are (with a few exceptions) relatively modest. The issue is with the layers of regulation that determine what can and cannot be sold.
Fine, we set the standards of products that are acceptable in our markets, and our exporters must accept the corresponding standards of the countries to which we export. These standards do not have to be harmonised, simply clear and non-discriminatory. By the way the agricultural tariffs into the EU in the CET are not insignificant.
Harmonisation does matter for exports. If we harmonise our standards for a particular product with the EU, which is our important market, that product can be exported to the EU simply by dint of it being traded here. If we apply different standards in the UK, exporters will have to show compliance with EU standards for every item that gets exported. It's a significant cost of doing business.
That's what US, Canadian, Japanese, Chinese etc etc firms have to do anyway. Hasn't been much of a hindrance to them.
These things are relative. Not having NTBs has been helpful to us.
They are not. And one of the things we can look forward to post Brexit is cheaper food.
For example? Usually when you drill down into food tariffs the major exporters into the EU already have preferential access and the CET doesn't apply. Unless Liam Fox gets his socks on prices are more likely to move in the other direction.
I believe chlorine soaked chicken is the Brexit bargain of the week. Served with lashings of corn syrup and duff beer.
They are not. And one of the things we can look forward to post Brexit is cheaper food.
For example? Usually when you drill down into food tariffs the major exporters into the EU already have preferential access and the CET doesn't apply. Unless Liam Fox gets his socks on prices are more likely to move in the other direction.
Cheaper food may happen. It's complicated because EU countries export a lot of agricultural produce to the UK and presumably want to keep us as a market. That's less likely if we pivot to third parties and allow in a flood of cheap food imports. But if that happens it will wipe out British farmers who will lose their main export market of the EU as well as the domestic market. I am not sure a Conservative government would discard one of their most important constituencies. Finally the UK government may not actually have a choice but to let in cheap food imports if a powerful country like the USA takes us to WTO arbitration on discrimination grounds. They might not even need to sign a trade deal to get their chlorination chicken onto these shores
Germany is pushing for an EU wide ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2030 which would be more aggressive than the French and British plan. You can bet the big players are going to be ready.
Comments
Which raises the question: what do we import *into* the Republic?
The fall from grace of diesels has been remarkably rapid; their resale values are going to get hammered. My wife has just replaced her A7 TDI with a Panamera Hybrid which is only slightly less fuel efficient but delivers performance and a driving experience that's on another level.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-petrol-car-ban-no-combustion-diesel-vehicles-2030-a7354281.html
Your basic point is correct, I believe. We don't have a lot of leverage in these negotiations, but Ireland is part of it. They will push the EU on our behalf if we work out something that will work for both countries.
I agree both we and the Irish want the same result on the border and trade etc, in that sense the EU are "in the way".
By the way the agricultural tariffs into the EU in the CET are not insignificant.
I am philosophically in agreement with you. But there's a reason the real world doesn't work like that. Our legislature would end up with producer capture. Standards would be imposed, thanks to copious amounts of lobbying, that would bear no relation to consumer needs, and everything to local manufacturers desire to limit competition.
http://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko/Daimler-builds-battery-factory-in-Beijing.xhtml?oid=22832397
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/venezuela-unprecedented-economic-collapse-by-ricardo-hausmann-2017-07
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/08/the-war-against-hr-mcmaster/536046/
(Also, what an appalling human being Mike Cernovich is.)