Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Be careful what you wish for

124»

Comments

  • I do find it strange that they are trying to stand by the EU position but trade with UK is apparently 1.5 billion a week. If we put tariffs on Ireland what next for them.

    Why no deal is better than a bad deal for Ireland - http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    By contrast, if there is no deal, because of insufficient progress on the border issue, the point of principle will not have been conceded. Yes, there will still be a border, but there will be a border anyway under a bad deal. And the UK will know that, if it ever wants a trade deal with the largest market in the world, and its nearest neighbour, it will have to erase that border.
    I have not heard of the UK erecting a border. Indeed I would expect Theresa May to say the border stays as it is now and free trade flows between the two - thereby handing the responsibility to the EU to erect their own border on Irish soil. That would be very interesting
  • TOPPING said:

    ... if there is no specific agreement between that third country and the EU. ...

    Well, quite.

    So, the UK either finds a solution or it rips up the Good Friday Agreement. Should that happen, the international consequences will be significant and damaging - let alone the trouble it might cause in Northern Ireland itself. Good luck getting any US administration to talk trade, for a start.

    Tell me, with your "ray of sunshine" worldview, how do your family put up with you? Do they resignedly sigh to themselves when they hear you walk in the door?

    I actually unfollowed you on Twitter, even though I actually quite like you, because it your feed was so depressing it made me want to kill myself.

    Life is short. Cheer the f*ck up.
    You're being unfair. Southam is a sensible chap who in normal circumstances would be a Labour supporter. No wonder he is depressed.

    I have been on the losing side in every political battle I have deemed of importance since 2005. It wears you down. The referendum has got to me particularly, not so much because of the result but because it turns out no-one who led the Leave campaign had the remotest idea what they were taking us into. I find that totally unforgiveable and really can't cheer up about it.

    You can take some comfort from the near-certainty that Jezza will win the next GE by a landslide and he knows exactly where he's taking us. So for you personally that is one (someone who knows where they are taking us) out of two (someone who knows where they are taking us, someone you support).

    Jezza would collapse the country. But he would be long gone if we'd voted Remain. He is the Brexit Beast.

  • I do find it strange that they are trying to stand by the EU position but trade with UK is apparently 1.5 billion a week. If we put tariffs on Ireland what next for them.

    Why no deal is better than a bad deal for Ireland - http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    By contrast, if there is no deal, because of insufficient progress on the border issue, the point of principle will not have been conceded. Yes, there will still be a border, but there will be a border anyway under a bad deal. And the UK will know that, if it ever wants a trade deal with the largest market in the world, and its nearest neighbour, it will have to erase that border.
    He's bluffing. No deal is even worse for EIRE than the UK.

    They are heavily dependent on the UK economy.
  • FF43 said:

    ... if there is no specific agreement between that third country and the EU. ...

    Well, quite.

    So, the UK either finds a solution or it rips up the Good Friday Agreement. Should that happen, the international consequences will be significant and damaging - let alone the trouble it might cause in Northern Ireland itself. Good luck getting any US administration to talk trade, for a start.

    Tell me, with your "ray of sunshine" worldview, how do your family put up with you? Do they resignedly sigh to themselves when they hear you walk in the door?

    I actually unfollowed you on Twitter, even though I actually quite like you, because it your feed was so depressing it made me want to kill myself.

    Life is short. Cheer the f*ck up.
    I'm quite optimistic on Brexit. I do expect profound mediocrity rather outright catastrophe. We just need to get real first.
    On both sides to be fair
  • ... if there is no specific agreement between that third country and the EU. ...

    Well, quite.

    So, the UK either finds a solution or it rips up the Good Friday Agreement. Should that happen, the international consequences will be significant and damaging - let alone the trouble it might cause in Northern Ireland itself. Good luck getting any US administration to talk trade, for a start.

    Tell me, with your "ray of sunshine" worldview, how do your family put up with you? Do they resignedly sigh to themselves when they hear you walk in the door?

    I actually unfollowed you on Twitter, even though I actually quite like you, because it your feed was so depressing it made me want to kill myself.

    Life is short. Cheer the f*ck up.

    Of course, cheering up will solve the Irish border question :-D

    That has certainly cheered me up!

    If I went for a few beers with you, would I walk out alive? Or would I be found the next day locked in one of the cubicles, with blood spattered all over the inside next to a rusty razor?

    You would walk out a new man - slaughtered, enlightened, joyful and ready to start your life anew.

    Well, that's a relief!

    Sign me up!!

    There have been many PB drinks get-togethers. I aspire to something finer. A PB lunch, old school stylee. Pub, restaurant, pub and collapse. Lunchtime, through the afternoon and into evening. Freeflow alcohol, the full works food-wise (oysters through to cheese), cigars and hard liquor to finish, with final beers for the hard core. Debate, disagreement, anecdote, laughs, but always the right side of civilised. Champions only.

    Sounds terrific!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    Would be the third 5 nil in eleven years.
    Lol Totesport suspend all their prices a minute after I put £20 on.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    ... if there is no specific agreement between that third country and the EU. ...

    Well, quite.

    So, the UK either finds a solution or it rips up the Good Friday Agreement. Should that happen, the international consequences will be significant and damaging - let alone the trouble it might cause in Northern Ireland itself. Good luck getting any US administration to talk trade, for a start.

    Tell me, with your "ray of sunshine" worldview, how do your family put up with you? Do they resignedly sigh to themselves when they hear you walk in the door?

    I actually unfollowed you on Twitter, even though I actually quite like you, because it your feed was so depressing it made me want to kill myself.

    Life is short. Cheer the f*ck up.
    You're being unfair. Southam is a sensible chap who in normal circumstances would be a Labour supporter. No wonder he is depressed.

    I have been on the losing side in every political battle I have deemed of importance since 2005. It wears you down. The referendum has got to me particularly, not so much because of the result but because it turns out no-one who led the Leave campaign had the remotest idea what they were taking us into. I find that totally unforgiveable and really can't cheer up about it.

    You must have been cheered by your loss on Romney 2012.Also like me a Spurs supporter the losses are getting better the last two years.I have never voted for the winning MP where I have lived.
  • I have not heard of the UK erecting a border. Indeed I would expect Theresa May to say the border stays as it is now and free trade flows between the two - thereby handing the responsibility to the EU to erect their own border on Irish soil. That would be very interesting

    Yes, exactly, except that it wouldn't be the EU, it would be the Irish government setting up the border posts, which would be electorally interesting for them. Lord only know how they'd do it in the time available, mind.
  • Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    Would be the third 5 nil in eleven years.
    Lol Totesport suspend all their prices a minute after I put £20 on.
    Bet365 are also offering 14/1.
  • Mr. Nabavi, maybe the new EU army, which were assured would never exist, will set up on the Republic's side of the border?

  • Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    Our team contains only four decent test batsman, Cook, Root, Bairstow, and Ali (and he only averages 34) which means we're not going to set many match winning totals.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    Layable at 12.5 on Betfair if you fancy the other side. Since I'm premium charge there I'll be passing the arb.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2017

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    Our team contains only four decent test batsman, Cook, Root, Bairstow, and Ali (and he only averages 34) which means we're not going to set many match winning totals.
    We also only have three test match quality bowlers (without stokes) and two of those are getting on and could easily break down at any tim..and on past experience when Anderson goes pop that is it for the series.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    Layable at 12.5 on Betfair if you fancy the other side. Since I'm premium charge there I'll be passing the arb.
    Hashtag humblebrag :-)
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    I believe BT Sport has got the rights to the Ashes this year in Australia ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting. I had thought that the GE was fought through the Brexit prism but you say that they didn't give a stuff. Fair enough.

    In Eastbourne it seemed to be the 'Dementia tax' which was the key problem; normally reliable Con voters stayed at home or may have gone LibDem.
    Where I was, Cons voters hit by the Dementia tax voiced their exasperation but in general it was with the system, rather than this one measure, which they realised, if only through gritted teeth, was a sensible amendment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited September 2017

    I do find it strange that they are trying to stand by the EU position but trade with UK is apparently 1.5 billion a week. If we put tariffs on Ireland what next for them.

    Why no deal is better than a bad deal for Ireland - http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    By contrast, if there is no deal, because of insufficient progress on the border issue, the point of principle will not have been conceded. Yes, there will still be a border, but there will be a border anyway under a bad deal. And the UK will know that, if it ever wants a trade deal with the largest market in the world, and its nearest neighbour, it will have to erase that border.
    He's bluffing. No deal is even worse for EIRE than the UK.

    They are heavily dependent on the UK economy.
    He goes into that in the article. On balance I think there is no real risk for them in vetoing trade talks unless the UK concedes that Northern Ireland is never leaving the single market or customs union.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    Me neither. The Aussies are not very good. Also, if Cook and Root both get in together (which must surely happen in at least 1 innings, they could build a score worth at least a draw).
    Would want at least 20/1.
  • Yorkcity said:

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    I believe BT Sport has got the rights to the Ashes this year in Australia ?
    Yup.
  • Yorkcity said:

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    I believe BT Sport has got the rights to the Ashes this year in Australia ?
    Yup.
    So the coverage is probably going to be as shit as the play on the pitch!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    FF43 said:

    ... if there is no specific agreement between that third country and the EU. ...

    Well, quite.

    So, the UK either finds a solution or it rips up the Good Friday Agreement. Should that happen, the international consequences will be significant and damaging - let alone the trouble it might cause in Northern Ireland itself. Good luck getting any US administration to talk trade, for a start.

    Tell me, with your "ray of sunshine" worldview, how do your family put up with you? Do they resignedly sigh to themselves when they hear you walk in the door?

    I actually unfollowed you on Twitter, even though I actually quite like you, because it your feed was so depressing it made me want to kill myself.

    Life is short. Cheer the f*ck up.
    I'm quite optimistic on Brexit. I do expect profound mediocrity rather outright catastrophe. We just need to get real first.
    On both sides to be fair
    True but 27 v 1 is a big ask , be like me trying to herd sheep into a pen.
  • I do find it strange that they are trying to stand by the EU position but trade with UK is apparently 1.5 billion a week. If we put tariffs on Ireland what next for them.

    Why no deal is better than a bad deal for Ireland - http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    By contrast, if there is no deal, because of insufficient progress on the border issue, the point of principle will not have been conceded. Yes, there will still be a border, but there will be a border anyway under a bad deal. And the UK will know that, if it ever wants a trade deal with the largest market in the world, and its nearest neighbour, it will have to erase that border.
    He's bluffing. No deal is even worse for EIRE than the UK.

    They are heavily dependent on the UK economy.
    He goes into that in the article. On balance I think there is no real risk for them in vetoing trade talks unless the UK concedes that Northern Ireland is never leaving the single market or customs union.
    Nice to hear you provide a fair answer William - more please
  • Yorkcity said:

    FF43 said:

    ... if there is no specific agreement between that third country and the EU. ...

    Well, quite.

    So, the UK either finds a solution or it rips up the Good Friday Agreement. Should that happen, the international consequences will be significant and damaging - let alone the trouble it might cause in Northern Ireland itself. Good luck getting any US administration to talk trade, for a start.

    Tell me, with your "ray of sunshine" worldview, how do your family put up with you? Do they resignedly sigh to themselves when they hear you walk in the door?

    I actually unfollowed you on Twitter, even though I actually quite like you, because it your feed was so depressing it made me want to kill myself.

    Life is short. Cheer the f*ck up.
    I'm quite optimistic on Brexit. I do expect profound mediocrity rather outright catastrophe. We just need to get real first.
    On both sides to be fair
    True but 27 v 1 is a big ask , be like me trying to herd sheep into a pen.
    You only need a really good sheep dog and we have Theresa
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    I believe BT Sport has got the rights to the Ashes this year in Australia ?
    Yup.
    So the coverage is probably going to be as shit as the play on the pitch!
    I watched some of their coverage last year of Australia test matches.Michael Vaughn had a prominent role.
  • Given the shit I am having with ios11...

    https://youtu.be/b4Xl4hPEV80
  • Yorkcity said:

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    I believe BT Sport has got the rights to the Ashes this year in Australia ?
    Yup.
    So the coverage is probably going to be as shit as the play on the pitch!
    Their coverage last year of Aussie cricket was pretty good.
  • I have not heard of the UK erecting a border. Indeed I would expect Theresa May to say the border stays as it is now and free trade flows between the two - thereby handing the responsibility to the EU to erect their own border on Irish soil. That would be very interesting

    Yes, exactly, except that it wouldn't be the EU, it would be the Irish government setting up the border posts, which would be electorally interesting for them. Lord only know how they'd do it in the time available, mind.

    So, we'd allow free movement of goods into NI, but British goods would be subject to full customs clearance going the other way. That sounds like a big win for the Irish to me. What am I missing?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    In quite interesting polling news, Everton fans are second highest Leave supporting fans (behind Chelsea), Liverpool second highest Remain supporting fans (behind Brighton).

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/09/28/revealed-premier-league-fanbase-favour-brexitand-fans-regret/

    Clearly I should have switched from Liverpool to Everton last year.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited September 2017

    I do find it strange that they are trying to stand by the EU position but trade with UK is apparently 1.5 billion a week. If we put tariffs on Ireland what next for them.

    Why no deal is better than a bad deal for Ireland - http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    By contrast, if there is no deal, because of insufficient progress on the border issue, the point of principle will not have been conceded. Yes, there will still be a border, but there will be a border anyway under a bad deal. And the UK will know that, if it ever wants a trade deal with the largest market in the world, and its nearest neighbour, it will have to erase that border.
    I have not heard of the UK erecting a border. Indeed I would expect Theresa May to say the border stays as it is now and free trade flows between the two - thereby handing the responsibility to the EU to erect their own border on Irish soil. That would be very interesting
    I think the point being made is that the UK wants FTA with everyone including the EU. After all, the EU is a market of 390m people without the UK.

    What they are saying is that negotiations will not start until the Irish border situation is not resolved. Whether you think that is right or fair is not the issue. They [ EU ] decide.

    I think it is now dawning that we are not as important as many Leavers thought we were. Yes, the EU will trade with us like they do with the entire world. After all, they trade with China and the USA with no FTA at the moment. UK will be one more country.
  • So, we'd allow free movement of goods into NI, but British goods would be subject to full customs clearance going the other way. That sounds like a big win for the Irish to me. What am I missing?

    That much of the trade involves stuff going across the border more than once.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited September 2017

    Yorkcity said:

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    I believe BT Sport has got the rights to the Ashes this year in Australia ?
    Yup.
    So the coverage is probably going to be as shit as the play on the pitch!
    Their coverage last year of Aussie cricket was pretty good.
    To be fair Vaughan and swann were fine on the wireless so I am sure they will be ok and skys offering aint all that and needs a kick up the arse...Is an inferior product to their football and golf coverage.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    So, we'd allow free movement of goods into NI, but British goods would be subject to full customs clearance going the other way. That sounds like a big win for the Irish to me. What am I missing?

    That much of the trade involves stuff going across the border more than once.
    Clearly over time [ and fairly quickly ] that element will disappear. It is NOrthern Ireland who will suffer badly.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    kle4 said:

    In quite interesting polling news, Everton fans are second highest Leave supporting fans (behind Chelsea), Liverpool second highest Remain supporting fans (behind Brighton).

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/09/28/revealed-premier-league-fanbase-favour-brexitand-fans-regret/

    Clearly I should have switched from Liverpool to Everton last year.
    You wouldn't regret it. Except if you want entertainment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Yorkcity said:

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    I believe BT Sport has got the rights to the Ashes this year in Australia ?
    Yup.
    So the coverage is probably going to be as shit as the play on the pitch!
    Their coverage last year of Aussie cricket was pretty good.
    Home advantage in the Ashes is massive:

    The Ashes (Australia in England) 2013 England 3-0 (5)
    The Ashes (England in Australia) 2013/14 Australia 5-0 (5)
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    FF43 said:

    ... if there is no specific agreement between that third country and the EU. ...

    Well, quite.

    So, the UK either finds a solution or it rips up the Good Friday Agreement. Should that happen, the international consequences will be significant and damaging - let alone the trouble it might cause in Northern Ireland itself. Good luck getting any US administration to talk trade, for a start.

    Tell me, with your "ray of sunshine" worldview, how do your family put up with you? Do they resignedly sigh to themselves when they hear you walk in the door?

    I actually unfollowed you on Twitter, even though I actually quite like you, because it your feed was so depressing it made me want to kill myself.

    Life is short. Cheer the f*ck up.
    I'm quite optimistic on Brexit. I do expect profound mediocrity rather outright catastrophe. We just need to get real first.
    On both sides to be fair
    True but 27 v 1 is a big ask , be like me trying to herd sheep into a pen.
    You only need a really good sheep dog and we have Theresa
    I hope she can .I voted Remain after going from one side to another, now just want the best outcome possible for the sake of the country.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2017
    surbiton said:

    Clearly over time [ and fairly quickly ] that element will disappear. It is NOrthern Ireland who will suffer badly.

    Both will suffer. This not a zero-sum game, it's a lose-lose, and at the moment our EU friends don't seem to want to mitigate the losses.

    Now, to be fair to them, you can understand their point of view that it's the UK that started all this mess, but that won't be much consolation if the mess is made worse than it needs to be.
  • I do find it strange that they are trying to stand by the EU position but trade with UK is apparently 1.5 billion a week. If we put tariffs on Ireland what next for them.

    Why no deal is better than a bad deal for Ireland - http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    By contrast, if there is no deal, because of insufficient progress on the border issue, the point of principle will not have been conceded. Yes, there will still be a border, but there will be a border anyway under a bad deal. And the UK will know that, if it ever wants a trade deal with the largest market in the world, and its nearest neighbour, it will have to erase that border.
    He's bluffing. No deal is even worse for EIRE than the UK.

    They are heavily dependent on the UK economy.
    He goes into that in the article. On balance I think there is no real risk for them in vetoing trade talks unless the UK concedes that Northern Ireland is never leaving the single market or customs union.
    Second, a bad deal would expose Irish agribusiness to competition from cheap overseas suppliers in the UK market. Such Anglospheric competition would severely reduce Irish exports to Britain, irrespective of whether Irish exporters faced WTO tariffs or not.

    Bad for Irish producers good for British consumers
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited September 2017
    surbiton said:

    I do find it strange that they are trying to stand by the EU position but trade with UK is apparently 1.5 billion a week. If we put tariffs on Ireland what next for them.

    Why no deal is better than a bad deal for Ireland - http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    By contrast, if there is no deal, because of insufficient progress on the border issue, the point of principle will not have been conceded. Yes, there will still be a border, but there will be a border anyway under a bad deal. And the UK will know that, if it ever wants a trade deal with the largest market in the world, and its nearest neighbour, it will have to erase that border.
    I have not heard of the UK erecting a border. Indeed I would expect Theresa May to say the border stays as it is now and free trade flows between the two - thereby handing the responsibility to the EU to erect their own border on Irish soil. That would be very interesting
    I think the point being made is that the UK wants FTA with everyone including the EU. After all, the EU is a market of 390m people without the UK.

    What they are saying is that negotiations will not start until the Irish border situation is not resolved. Whether you think that is right or fair is not the issue. They [ EU ] decide.

    I think it is now dawning that we are not as important as many Leavers thought we were. Yes, the EU will trade with us like they do with the entire world. After all, they trade with China and the USA with no FTA at the moment. UK will be one more country.
    To be honest I am sure I am in the majority that want the issue sorting and there will be a 'fudge' in the end
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Not 2007 all over again, please!
    No, I can't see that, if only because Australia are not especially strong this time around.

    In fact, if England are lucky enough to avoid injuries, they coud easily win. They have some very good players. Eight of them pick themselves, nine if you count Stoneham. That just leaves known weaknesses at three and five, and although I have my doubts about Ballance and more so Malan, they are by no means bunny rabbits.

    The problems start to get serious if there are injuries and loss of form. The back-ups are weak, and include some incomprehensible selections. But again, you could say the same of the Aussies. Just how good would they look if Smith and Warner got crocked?

    14/1 doesn't look generous to me.
    Our team contains only four decent test batsman, Cook, Root, Bairstow, and Ali (and he only averages 34) which means we're not going to set many match winning totals.
    We also only have three test match quality bowlers (without stokes) and two of those are getting on and could easily break down at any tim..and on past experience when Anderson goes pop that is it for the series.
    And to win a Test match you need 20 wickets.

    Luckily for us, the convicts have their own problems with form and injury.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    There's been some really good & interesting discussion this afternoon. Many thanks, everybody.
  • So, we'd allow free movement of goods into NI, but British goods would be subject to full customs clearance going the other way. That sounds like a big win for the Irish to me. What am I missing?

    That much of the trade involves stuff going across the border more than once.

    In what areas is that most prevalent? If stuff is going back and forth it implies Northern Ireland will also face particular problems.

  • Proper punting advice from a journo who knows his odds:
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/913422409461567492
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    SeanT said:

    Britain raped the world, and the world conceived modernity, thereby.

    Not sure it sits comfortably with your quote - but belated congrats on your nuptials!

    In passing, I have been to Gidleigh Park twice in the past couple of months, savouring the delights of chef Michael Wignall. Both times have been a delight - even more impressive the second time to learn he was not in the kitchen. He must have a bloody good team in that kitchen to replicate his palate.

    The eel with white chocolate was so bizarre it had to be tried. Was wonderful. And his "inter-course" delights are spectacular - the little Thai green curry foam with crab atop was worth his two Michelin stars alone!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited September 2017
    F1: weather forecast has somewhat deteriorated, but the race may be dry, if overcast.

    Still long odds against my silly (tiny stakes) bets on Renault, Sauber, Williams and Toro Rosso drivers to top FP1, but current weather forecasts appear helpful. Wet for qualifying but dry for the race will reduce a desire to churn through wet tyres in first practice, if it's wet enough.

    Edited extra bit: checked the Ladbrokes Exchange specials. Not of them tempt, even a little. Tight odds, often with lots of contingencies.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    So, we'd allow free movement of goods into NI, but British goods would be subject to full customs clearance going the other way. That sounds like a big win for the Irish to me. What am I missing?

    That much of the trade involves stuff going across the border more than once.

    In what areas is that most prevalent? If stuff is going back and forth it implies Northern Ireland will also face particular problems.

    Historically there isn't any reliable data to base the traffic over the Irish border. It has had generations of informal transactions and movements that do not tally with the records.

    Even in the troubles there were additional transactions taking place.
  • Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    FF43 said:

    ... if there is no specific agreement between that third country and the EU. ...

    Well, quite.

    So, the UK either finds a solution or it rips up the Good Friday Agreement. Should that happen, the international consequences will be significant and damaging - let alone the trouble it might cause in Northern Ireland itself. Good luck getting any US administration to talk trade, for a start.

    Tell me, with your "ray of sunshine" worldview, how do your family put up with you? Do they resignedly sigh to themselves when they hear you walk in the door?

    I actually unfollowed you on Twitter, even though I actually quite like you, because it your feed was so depressing it made me want to kill myself.

    Life is short. Cheer the f*ck up.
    I'm quite optimistic on Brexit. I do expect profound mediocrity rather outright catastrophe. We just need to get real first.
    On both sides to be fair
    True but 27 v 1 is a big ask , be like me trying to herd sheep into a pen.
    You only need a really good sheep dog and we have Theresa
    I hope she can .I voted Remain after going from one side to another, now just want the best outcome possible for the sake of the country.
    I am seriously hoping she can pull this off. She has many limitations but being serious is not one. She was very clear this morning on the end of membership in March 2019. I voted remain but we have no alternative to leave and I have no time for either the hard remainers or hard leavers
  • Yorkcity said:

    ... if there is no specific agreement between that third country and the EU. ...

    Well, quite.

    So, the UK either finds a solution or it rips up the Good Friday Agreement. Should that happen, the international consequences will be significant and damaging - let alone the trouble it might cause in Northern Ireland itself. Good luck getting any US administration to talk trade, for a start.

    Tell me, with your "ray of sunshine" worldview, how do your family put up with you? Do they resignedly sigh to themselves when they hear you walk in the door?

    I actually unfollowed you on Twitter, even though I actually quite like you, because it your feed was so depressing it made me want to kill myself.

    Life is short. Cheer the f*ck up.
    You're being unfair. Southam is a sensible chap who in normal circumstances would be a Labour supporter. No wonder he is depressed.

    I have been on the losing side in every political battle I have deemed of importance since 2005. It wears you down. The referendum has got to me particularly, not so much because of the result but because it turns out no-one who led the Leave campaign had the remotest idea what they were taking us into. I find that totally unforgiveable and really can't cheer up about it.

    You must have been cheered by your loss on Romney 2012.Also like me a Spurs supporter the losses are getting better the last two years.I have never voted for the winning MP where I have lived.

    I didn't care that much about Romney. He'd have been a normal president, albeit a very right wing one. The ones that have eaten me up, because I've known for certain they would not end well, are: Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn winning the Labour leadership, Trump winning, the Tories winning in 2015 and, way out in front, Leave winning - not because of the result itself but, as I say, because those who secured it had literally no idea what to do with it.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited September 2017

    In what areas is that most prevalent? If stuff is going back and forth it implies Northern Ireland will also face particular problems.

    Dairy, for one. A lot of milk from NI goes south for processing and comes back as butter or cheese.

    Guinness is another:

    Diageo, the multinational company that produces Guinness and Bailey’s Irish Cream, warned that its prices could rise if trade restrictions are imposed, noting that some of its products cross the border as many as three times before being exported in bottles. “It’ll be a disaster for everyone if that border once again becomes a closed border,” Mitchell said.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/northern-ireland-hard-border/535545/

    Yes, it's a big problem for both sides. This is a potential disaster for the whole island.
  • So, who would be up for the Mother of all Lunches, the full works with no omissions, maybe in November-time? I reckon four to six of us could make a go of it, but it would involve a fair outlay.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    In what areas is that most prevalent? If stuff is going back and forth it implies Northern Ireland will also face particular problems.

    Dairy, for one. A lot of milk from NI goes south for processing and comes back as butter or cheese.

    Guinness is another:

    Diageo, the multinational company that produces Guinness and Bailey’s Irish Cream, warned that its prices could rise if trade restrictions are imposed, noting that some of its products cross the border as many as three times before being exported in bottles. “It’ll be a disaster for everyone if that border once again becomes a closed border,” Mitchell said.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/northern-ireland-hard-border/535545/


    I'm sure it won't be a disaster for everyone. Someone will benefit.
  • So, who would be up for the Mother of all Lunches, the full works with no omissions, maybe in November-time? I reckon four to six of us could make a go of it, but it would involve a fair outlay.

    I'd be up for it. (Just make sure OGH is invited!)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    F1: weather forecast has somewhat deteriorated, but the race may be dry, if overcast.

    Still long odds against my silly (tiny stakes) bets on Renault, Sauber, Williams and Toro Rosso drivers to top FP1, but current weather forecasts appear helpful. Wet for qualifying but dry for the race will reduce a desire to churn through wet tyres in first practice, if it's wet enough.

    Edited extra bit: checked the Ladbrokes Exchange specials. Not of them tempt, even a little. Tight odds, often with lots of contingencies.

    Hmm, BBC are still suggesting rain showers on Sunday http://www.bbc.com/weather/1735161

    Do you know who’s driving the second TR in FP1? Apparently it’s not Sainz, and Gasly is in the other car replacing Kvyat.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Britain raped the world, and the world conceived modernity, thereby.

    Not sure it sits comfortably with your quote - but belated congrats on your nuptials!

    In passing, I have been to Gidleigh Park twice in the past couple of months, savouring the delights of chef Michael Wignall. Both times have been a delight - even more impressive the second time to learn he was not in the kitchen. He must have a bloody good team in that kitchen to replicate his palate.

    The eel with white chocolate was so bizarre it had to be tried. Was wonderful. And his "inter-course" delights are spectacular - the little Thai green curry foam with crab atop was worth his two Michelin stars alone!
    Hey, glad you enjoyed.

    Yes I reckon he's one of the best chefs working in Britain at the moment. I've had two truly memorable meals tgere, the second better than the first. And I'm often - usually - disappointed with fancy Michelin-star food.

    It was better than any Michelin star meal I've had in France in the last few years. And I've probably had DOZENS of those.

    And yes the intercourse nibbles, my wife loves those, almost as much as a firm spanking

    (Sorry, irresistible)
    Sounds like you got yourself a keeper....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    In what areas is that most prevalent? If stuff is going back and forth it implies Northern Ireland will also face particular problems.

    Dairy, for one. A lot of milk from NI goes south for processing and comes back as butter or cheese.

    Guinness is another:

    Diageo, the multinational company that produces Guinness and Bailey’s Irish Cream, warned that its prices could rise if trade restrictions are imposed, noting that some of its products cross the border as many as three times before being exported in bottles. “It’ll be a disaster for everyone if that border once again becomes a closed border,” Mitchell said.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/northern-ireland-hard-border/535545/

    Yes, it's a big problem for both sides. This is a potential disaster for the whole island.
    What I don’t understand is why the Irish aren’t screaming at the EU negotiators about this. It’s clear that the border and trade are completely interwtined, and it will cost Ireland more than anyone if there’s no agreement.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Hmm. I was at the Oval last night when England were 50 runs behind on DL with the rain coming in and they won. Without Stokes. Some of these players are really not good at losing.
  • Sandpit said:

    What I don’t understand is why the Irish aren’t screaming at the EU negotiators about this. It’s clear that the border and trade are completely interwtined, and it will cost Ireland more than anyone if there’s no agreement.

    I don't understand that either. Of course there may be things going on behind the scenes that we don't hear about.
  • Mr. Sandpit, touch and go, though, with it being drier later.

    I'd guess the other Toro Rosso chap will be the Japanese fellow whose name escapes me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Proper punting advice from a journo who knows his odds:
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/913422409461567492

    Hope she makes it, + a grand or so in my book at the moment :)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Mr. Z, no Crecy?

    Oh sorry yes forgot about crecy.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    I have not heard of the UK erecting a border. Indeed I would expect Theresa May to say the border stays as it is now and free trade flows between the two - thereby handing the responsibility to the EU to erect their own border on Irish soil. That would be very interesting

    Yes, exactly, except that it wouldn't be the EU, it would be the Irish government setting up the border posts, which would be electorally interesting for them. Lord only know how they'd do it in the time available, mind.

    So, we'd allow free movement of goods into NI, but British goods would be subject to full customs clearance going the other way. That sounds like a big win for the Irish to me. What am I missing?

    Let us just do everything the Leaver's way because they sure as heck will not listen to anything approximating reason. So let us do everything they suggest and when the s**t hits the fan we will at least get the entertaining spectacle of watching them tell us that it is not their fault.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    FF43 said:

    ... if there is no specific agreement between that third country and the EU. ...

    Well, quite.

    So, the UK either finds a solution or it rips up the Good Friday Agreement. Should that happen, the international consequences will be significant and damaging - let alone the trouble it might cause in Northern Ireland itself. Good luck getting any US administration to talk trade, for a start.

    Tell me, with your "ray of sunshine" worldview, how do your family put up with you? Do they resignedly sigh to themselves when they hear you walk in the door?

    I actually unfollowed you on Twitter, even though I actually quite like you, because it your feed was so depressing it made me want to kill myself.

    Life is short. Cheer the f*ck up.
    I'm quite optimistic on Brexit. I do expect profound mediocrity rather outright catastrophe. We just need to get real first.
    On both sides to be fair
    True but 27 v 1 is a big ask , be like me trying to herd sheep into a pen.
    You only need a really good sheep dog and we have Theresa
    I hope she can .I voted Remain after going from one side to another, now just want the best outcome possible for the sake of the country.
    I am seriously hoping she can pull this off. She has many limitations but being serious is not one. She was very clear this morning on the end of membership in March 2019. I voted remain but we have no alternative to leave and I have no time for either the hard remainers or hard leavers
    Yes totally agree.
  • NEW THREAD

  • Pulpstar said:

    Proper punting advice from a journo who knows his odds:
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/913422409461567492

    Hope she makes it, + a grand or so in my book at the moment :)
    She was already one of my best winners so the confirmation was very welcome. My book is tilted very heavily towards women, though it looks like my long-term pick of Nandy is getting eclipsed.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited September 2017

    So, who would be up for the Mother of all Lunches, the full works with no omissions, maybe in November-time? I reckon four to six of us could make a go of it, but it would involve a fair outlay.

    Aye. Also, which pb'ers will be at Manchester next week? I'm assuming bigjohnowls will be there :p
  • Sandpit said:

    In what areas is that most prevalent? If stuff is going back and forth it implies Northern Ireland will also face particular problems.

    Dairy, for one. A lot of milk from NI goes south for processing and comes back as butter or cheese.

    Guinness is another:

    Diageo, the multinational company that produces Guinness and Bailey’s Irish Cream, warned that its prices could rise if trade restrictions are imposed, noting that some of its products cross the border as many as three times before being exported in bottles. “It’ll be a disaster for everyone if that border once again becomes a closed border,” Mitchell said.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/northern-ireland-hard-border/535545/

    Yes, it's a big problem for both sides. This is a potential disaster for the whole island.
    What I don’t understand is why the Irish aren’t screaming at the EU negotiators about this. It’s clear that the border and trade are completely interwtined, and it will cost Ireland more than anyone if there’s no agreement.
    I guess they hope to force the UK to concede that Northern Ireland can remain in the customs union. This would involve customs checks between NI and GB - a big step on the road to a united Ireland, which is the Republic's ultimate aim of course.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    SeanT said:



    What she isn't is a keeper. She's very flighty, very capricious, and I have no doubts she will want to go travelling (without me) in a year or two, and then have babies (and I am just too old for nappies), so a natural separation will happen over time, hopefully amicable

    But right now we are blissfully in love. And when I go to meet my maker, I can look Him in his omniscient eye and say the one and only time I got married was when I was truly in love with a truly remarkable, truly sexy, and truly beautiful woman. Who just happened to be less than half my age, but there you go. There are worse fates, for sure.

    May those year or two continue to stretch out ahead of you. Tis a blissful time, all the more so as you are treating it as fleeting....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mr. Sandpit, touch and go, though, with it being drier later.

    I'd guess the other Toro Rosso chap will be the Japanese fellow whose name escapes me.

    I looked it up, in Singapore it was Sean Galeal from Indonesia, current F2 driver. Probably be the same guy again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Australia to win The Ashes 5 nil are 14/1.

    Fill yer boots.

    Hope it doesn't happen, but that's too good to pass up.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    I do find it strange that they are trying to stand by the EU position but trade with UK is apparently 1.5 billion a week. If we put tariffs on Ireland what next for them.

    Why no deal is better than a bad deal for Ireland - http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    By contrast, if there is no deal, because of insufficient progress on the border issue, the point of principle will not have been conceded. Yes, there will still be a border, but there will be a border anyway under a bad deal. And the UK will know that, if it ever wants a trade deal with the largest market in the world, and its nearest neighbour, it will have to erase that border.
    I have not heard of the UK erecting a border. Indeed I would expect Theresa May to say the border stays as it is now and free trade flows between the two - thereby handing the responsibility to the EU to erect their own border on Irish soil. That would be very interesting
    And the first crime that was committed by someone who crossed the open border would be all over the front pages of the tabloids. It would get tightened up pretty quickly after that.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Proper punting advice from a journo who knows his odds:
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/913422409461567492

    Hope she makes it, + a grand or so in my book at the moment :)
    She's awful. I really see no ability there at all. But then that's true of much of the Shadow Cabinet.

    Presumably the tip is based on the assumption that she is or will be the annointed successor?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Proper punting advice from a journo who knows his odds:
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/913422409461567492

    Hope she makes it, + a grand or so in my book at the moment :)
    She's awful. I really see no ability there at all. But then that's true of much of the Shadow Cabinet.

    Presumably the tip is based on the assumption that she is or will be the annointed successor?
    I would have thought so, though I would also expect that Shipman had concluded she did have enough ability.

    Other women worth considering for the anointed role are Rebecca Long-Bailey (tim reckons she's McDonnell's candidate), Cat Smith and Kate Osamor.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Pulpstar said:

    Proper punting advice from a journo who knows his odds:
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/913422409461567492

    Hope she makes it, + a grand or so in my book at the moment :)
    She's awful. I really see no ability there at all. But then that's true of much of the Shadow Cabinet.

    Presumably the tip is based on the assumption that she is or will be the annointed successor?
    I dont think it will work that way. Jezza seems to have great faith in the ordinary members as in alignment with his values. In this he appears to be vindicated by his two leadership wins. When he steps down, I think he expects a left winger to win in a fair contest. This may be hubris, but It seems to be how he thinks.

    As such my suggestion is to watch how potential candidates go down at conference. Starmer and Ashworth both were received less rapturously than Rayner and Thornbury, despite having crowd pleasing subjects. Business is a tougher sell to a Labour audience but even so Rebecca Long Bailey was not so well appreciated.

    I think Rayner is a good tip (though my best profit is on Ashworth or Jess Phillips) as she ticks all the right boxes too. She is growing on me, but I have always liked strong feisty women.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    PART 2

    But the most revealing comment of the night, for me, was that of Anne-Elisabeth - a French journalist and EU commentator. By her own admission she had done no preparation (only knew the questions 30 minutes in advance) so was more instinctive.

    She said she was in Brussels the night of Dave's deal. Everyone she spoke to (insiders) were shocked at how much the EU had given to the UK, and couldn't believe the UK had got away with it. She didn't explore (or compare) to the UK reaction, which was I felt instructive. Now, the UK has left, "they" are sad, but, if the UK does Leave, they are sparing virtually no thought for it. She had nothing to say on the future of the EU, and couldn't offer any thoughts on it when probed by Andrew Neil. Also instructive

    My takeaway was that the EU doesn't know where its going, the UK is split, and the UK and EU both (still) fundamentally misunderstand each other's politics. In the UK there's
    still little consensus on what our long-term relationship with the EU should be, and the EU haven't even bothered to think about it all, thinking the UK doesn't really matter anymore and just wanting to avoid setting a precedent. It's just one of several major problems the EU has.

    Therefore, I'm afraid to say, I came away thinking no deal is even more likely than when I went in.

    (PS. Afterwards, we got a photo together with Andrew Neil, had a few jars and so I feel rougher than Angela Merkel's political career today.)

    Thanks for that. Very interesting.
This discussion has been closed.