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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tory membership reported to have dropped by 40k since GE17 and

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  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Chris_A said:

    We can live in hope that Mr Strafford is correct. For what the Tories have done to this country over the last 25 years (governing in their interest above that of the country) the party deserves a long and lingering death.

    As opposed to Labour who selflessly invaded Iraq and left the country practically bankrupt all in an act of great self sacrifice for the nation?
    I have always argued that Blair should be put on trial for Iraq - despite having received very strong support from IDS and the Tory Opposition. As for leaving the country 'practically bankrupt' , it might be worth recalling that the Debt to GDP ratio of circa 80% bequeathed by Gordon Brown in 2010 was well below the 120% the country faced in 1957 when Harold Macmillan informed the nation that it 'had never had it so good'.
  • Boris has many flaws but being stupid isn't one of them. He knew the firestorm that poem would cause. He knew who would attack him, who would defend him and who it would play well with. He also knew there was the small but real possibility he'd be fired for it. The public nature of this attempt to get fired in very specific but public circumstances is beyond anything else in my political life time. The TB/GBies and Thatcher's struggles with Lawson, Howe and Heseltine observed certain core norms. What's unique about Boris' behaviour is the *public* undermining of May from *within* the Cabinet. Any other challenger of my political life time would have either resigned or used public proxies.

    That this is going on at a moment of extreme national consequence - probably the most serious peacetime events since 1945 is extraordinary. Boris s a pound shop Frank Underwood engineering a profound crisis so he can become Prime Minister without an election.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2017

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/30/boris-johnson-caught-on-camera-reciting-kipling-in-myanmar-temple

    Boris Johnson caught on camera reciting Kipling in Myanmar temple

    Foreign secretary’s impromptu recital of colonial-era poem was so embarrassing the UK ambassador was forced to stop him

    I would have thought Myanmar has rather more pressing concerns at the moment than Boris reciting Kipling
    Yes, but if you're the Burmese government, you'd be delighted to distract the world with a bit of faux outrage against the old colonial power.
    I'm getting the sense you're not a fan of Boris?

    Also, just out of interest, what does Wakefield's famous execution consultant think of TM?

    Is he still in the party?
    I quite like Boris in the same way that I quite like a slightly badly trained but essentially lovable and enthusiastic sheepdog. I wouldn't make it prime minister though.

    I don't relate what others think about anything without their say so, I'm afraid (unless it's something that's been said in public). I don't think it fair to them. But yes, he is still in the party. Why shouldn't he be?
    Dunno. Scoring political points on PB is fun, but pretty futile. What i'm really trying to do is get a sense of the recent membership changes in the party. If the hang-em flog-em's are sticking around, while the social liberals are letting their membership lapse then there could well be some unexpected betting value when the leadership contest heats up.

    What the hang-em flog-em's think really matters.

    I agree on Boris btw.
  • Boris has many flaws but being stupid isn't one of them. He knew the firestorm that poem would cause. He knew who would attack him, who would defend him and who it would play well with. He also knew there was the small but real possibility he'd be fired for it. The public nature of this attempt to get fired in very specific but public circumstances is beyond anything else in my political life time. The TB/GBies and Thatcher's struggles with Lawson, Howe and Heseltine observed certain core norms. What's unique about Boris' behaviour is the *public* undermining of May from *within* the Cabinet. Any other challenger of my political life time would have either resigned or used public proxies.

    That this is going on at a moment of extreme national consequence - probably the most serious peacetime events since 1945 is extraordinary. Boris s a pound shop Frank Underwood engineering a profound crisis so he can become Prime Minister without an election.

    The contrast between May's treatment of Osborne and of Boris is striking.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Boris has many flaws but being stupid isn't one of them. He knew the firestorm that poem would cause. He knew who would attack him, who would defend him and who it would play well with. He also knew there was the small but real possibility he'd be fired for it. The public nature of this attempt to get fired in very specific but public circumstances is beyond anything else in my political life time. The TB/GBies and Thatcher's struggles with Lawson, Howe and Heseltine observed certain core norms. What's unique about Boris' behaviour is the *public* undermining of May from *within* the Cabinet. Any other challenger of my political life time would have either resigned or used public proxies.

    That this is going on at a moment of extreme national consequence - probably the most serious peacetime events since 1945 is extraordinary. Boris s a pound shop Frank Underwood engineering a profound crisis so he can become Prime Minister without an election.

    The contrast between May's treatment of Osborne and of Boris is striking.
    Indeed so - and it is not a contrast which does great credit to Theresa May. Of course, politically she was so much stronger in July 2016 than she is today!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/30/boris-johnson-caught-on-camera-reciting-kipling-in-myanmar-temple

    Boris Johnson caught on camera reciting Kipling in Myanmar temple

    Foreign secretary’s impromptu recital of colonial-era poem was so embarrassing the UK ambassador was forced to stop him

    I would have thought Myanmar has rather more pressing concerns at the moment than Boris reciting Kipling
    Yes, but if you're the Burmese government, you'd be delighted to distract the world with a bit of faux outrage against the old colonial power.
    Also, just out of interest, what does Wakefield's famous execution consultant think of TM?

    Is he still in the party?
    I quite like Boris in the same way that I quite like a slightly badly trained but essentially lovable and enthusiastic sheepdog. I wouldn't make it prime minister though.

    I don't relate what others think about anything without their say so, I'm afraid (unless it's something that's been said in public). I don't think it fair to them. But yes, he is still in the party. Why shouldn't he be?
    Dunno. Scoring political points on PB is fun, but pretty futile. What i'm really trying to do is get a sense of the recent membership changes in the party. If the hang-em flog-em's are sticking around, while the social liberals are letting their membership lapse then there could well be some unexpected betting value when the leadership contest heats up.

    What the hang-em flog-em's think really matters.

    I agree on Boris btw.
    David Herdson's of the world or of Wakefield would know what's happening with the composition of the Tory party better than most people.

    David also has the special antenna to judge the support base. His post on the evening before the election was extraordinary. Easily the post of the year, probably of the decade. Very few people can sift the reality from their own preconceived beliefs.

    By the way, my own position is that the dramatic fall in the Tory membership is not in itself dramatic. The Tory party membership was never for the masses or even of the middle classes. It may have been in the 50's or early 60's. What the Tory party represents very well are people who want to keep what they have and trust the Tories more than , say, Labour, with or without Corbyn.

    I see people in my own company pushing 50k in their earnings who "think" they "ought" to be Tories simply because they are breaching a certain income line. In most social topics their views are way different from the Tory line.

    Therefore, I don't think the Tories will be too alarmed at this reported drop in membership.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    calum said:
    If only the SNP ever cleaned out house that effectively..
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Saltire said:

    So there is a chance that the Tories are 4th in party members behind Labour, the Liberal Democrats and also the SNP.

    But not in 4th when it comes to election results North or South of the border... Something worth thinking about..
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    justin124 said:

    stevef said:

    The Conservatives need to relaunch themselves as a political party, with a younger new leader, a new statement of purpose, rejecting its Thatcherite past. It need to become the Christian Democrat Party of GB.

    Even though there is very little Christian about the modern Tory party - the party of sefish individualism - looking after Number one - and 'I'm all right Jack!'.
    When the majority of the electorate decide to back the Conservatives in a GE, its worth pointing out that they are doing so to protect UKplc because they believe that it is the right thing to do for the majority! I love the way that Labour/left leaning voters think a vote for their politics is a vote for the majority, but a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for the individual even when their collective numbers outvote the left and their policies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    justin124 said:

    Boris has many flaws but being stupid isn't one of them. He knew the firestorm that poem would cause. He knew who would attack him, who would defend him and who it would play well with. He also knew there was the small but real possibility he'd be fired for it. The public nature of this attempt to get fired in very specific but public circumstances is beyond anything else in my political life time. The TB/GBies and Thatcher's struggles with Lawson, Howe and Heseltine observed certain core norms. What's unique about Boris' behaviour is the *public* undermining of May from *within* the Cabinet. Any other challenger of my political life time would have either resigned or used public proxies.

    That this is going on at a moment of extreme national consequence - probably the most serious peacetime events since 1945 is extraordinary. Boris s a pound shop Frank Underwood engineering a profound crisis so he can become Prime Minister without an election.

    The contrast between May's treatment of Osborne and of Boris is striking.
    Indeed so - and it is not a contrast which does great credit to Theresa May. Of course, politically she was so much stronger in July 2016 than she is today!
    Contender for understatement of the year.

    I think she follows the mantra of the old pm from yes minister - in defeat, malice. In victory, revenge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    fitalass said:

    justin124 said:

    stevef said:

    The Conservatives need to relaunch themselves as a political party, with a younger new leader, a new statement of purpose, rejecting its Thatcherite past. It need to become the Christian Democrat Party of GB.

    Even though there is very little Christian about the modern Tory party - the party of sefish individualism - looking after Number one - and 'I'm all right Jack!'.
    When the majority of the electorate decide to back the Conservatives in a GE, its worth pointing out that they are doing so to protect UKplc because they believe that it is the right thing to do for the majority! I love the way that Labour/left leaning voters think a vote for their politics is a vote for the majority, but a vote for the Conservatives is a vote for the individual even when their collective numbers outvote the left and their policies.
    It's a fair point. It's a part of assuming one vote choice must be good and one bad, which is worse than merely assuming one is smart and one is stupid. Both may be very wrong, and people may mistakenly equate their own benefit with the country as a whole, but we generally have to assume people think the way the vote is the best for the country unless there's proof to the contrary. I assume millions think Corbyn is the best person to be pm, and many will be good people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited September 2017
    surbiton said:



    David Herdson's of the world or of Wakefield would know what's happening with the composition of the Tory party better than most people.

    David also has the special antenna to judge the support base. His post on the evening before the election was extraordinary. Easily the post of the year, probably of the decade. Very few people can sift the reality from their own preconceived beliefs.

    By the way, my own position is that the dramatic fall in the Tory membership is not in itself dramatic. The Tory party membership was never for the masses or even of the middle classes. It may have been in the 50's or early 60's. What the Tory party represents very well are people who want to keep what they have and trust the Tories more than , say, Labour, with or without Corbyn.

    I see people in my own company pushing 50k in their earnings who "think" they "ought" to be Tories simply because they are breaching a certain income line. In most social topics their views are way different from the Tory line.

    Therefore, I don't think the Tories will be too alarmed at this reported drop in membership.

    Your penultimate paragraph is very telling i think, as in my experience an awful lot of us tribally vote in a certain way based on a presumption of where we think we are on the political spectrum, which may not bear much relation to where we actually sit politically, and more than that influenced by where we think we ought to be on the spectrum. It's why some people can be deeply illiberal while convinced they are intensely liberal (where liberal usually means good) or can be supportive of some deeply socialist ideas while apparently offended by the very idea of socialism.

    Many are the times I see people whose views as espoused do not seem to match the party they claim to support, usually fervently, or drop support for policies when they find out the 'wrong' party is backing it now. I was never raised to dislike any party and I'd consider any side, but I'm convinced I'm instinctively more wary of Labour because of growing up in the Tory shires.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited September 2017
    .
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited September 2017
    SURBITON

    David Herdson's of the world or of Wakefield would know what's happening with the composition of the Tory party better than most people.

    David also has the special antenna to judge the support base. His post on the evening before the election was extraordinary. Easily the post of the year, probably of the decade. Very few people can sift the reality from their own preconceived beliefs.

    By the way, my own position is that the dramatic fall in the Tory membership is not in itself dramatic. The Tory party membership was never for the masses or even of the middle classes. It may have been in the 50's or early 60's. What the Tory party represents very well are people who want to keep what they have and trust the Tories more than , say, Labour, with or without Corbyn.

    I see people in my own company pushing 50k in their earnings who "think" they "ought" to be Tories simply because they are breaching a certain income line. In most social topics their views are way different from the Tory line.

    Therefore, I don't think the Tories will be too alarmed at this reported drop in membership.

    ROGER
    --------------------------------
    That's a good post. I'd forgotton about the frisson of David's post. Much the most interesting moment of the election. And the way news of it spread through the threads....

    I think the new line that determines voting intention is less earnings and more whether you're a Leaver or Remainer. It's taken a lot of high earners out of the Tory column and possibly put a lesser number of working class/quasi racist Labour supporters into it. I think it'll be the crucial dividing line into the future even after the event

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