Under 50% turnout in Catalonia. But huge majority for independence among those who did vote. Worth remembering, though, that voters could print off ballot papers and take them to polling stations, so true turnout and vote numbers impossible to verify.
Hardly seems up to standard, but given today's events, fewer will have an issue with that than might have.
Shows the utter stupidity of the Spanish government. Today would have been a complete damp squib if the vote had just gone ahead.
I have read many books on the Spanish Civil war , but struggled with all the differing groups and factions especially on the republican side.However recently watched Michael Portillo history programmes about this period , which made more sense to me.
You may have read it already, but Anthony Beevor's book is excellent, and not too long.
I always think of Beevor as diet Hastings, but as Hastings hasn't done the Spanish Civil War I'll have a look, thank you.
That is a very good summation.I always think Hastings is for history buffs, but not necessarily the dry, academic historian. Beevor for the interested reader who likes history and a good read.
Has to be seen in the context of Ramón Luis Valcárcel being Spanish and a member of the PP surely?
Maybe but idiotic does't start to cover his words
True, but your post made it look like it was an official EU comment.
I am sure the EU, in common with our own government and no doubt Merkel and Macron etc. are going to find it really difficult to know which line to take on the Catalonia situation.
Brexiteer Boris has already given official UK line: it's an internal Spanish matter.
“We are obviously worried by any violence but clearly the referendum, as I understand it, is not constitutional so a balance needs to be struck,” Johnson told Reuters. “We hope very much that things will calm down.”
Bit mealy-mouthed, still, but rather better than just saying it was an internal matter. (Though it is possible Southam is either quoting from another interview/soundbite I haven't seen, or has only heard a summary relating to Britain not deciding on the legality of the vote and that being an internal Spanish matter. I love Southam and am very happy to grant benefit of the doubt as to where his post is coming from. But the idea that Boris has refused to mention the violence and declared the police response a mere "internal matter" is clearly misleading.)
Has to be seen in the context of Ramón Luis Valcárcel being Spanish and a member of the PP surely?
Maybe but idiotic does't start to cover his words
True, but your post made it look like it was an official EU comment.
I am sure the EU, in common with our own government and no doubt Merkel and Macron etc. are going to find it really difficult to know which line to take on the Catalonia situation.
Brexiteer Boris has already given official UK line: it's an internal Spanish matter.
“We are obviously worried by any violence but clearly the referendum, as I understand it, is not constitutional so a balance needs to be struck,” Johnson told Reuters. “We hope very much that things will calm down.”
Bit mealy-mouthed, still, but rather better than just saying it was an internal matter. (Though it is possible Southam is either quoting from another interview/soundbite I haven't seen, or has only heard a summary relating to Britain not deciding on the legality of the vote and that being an internal Spanish matter. I love Southam and am very happy to grant benefit of the doubt as to where his post is coming from. But the idea that Boris has refused to mention the violence and declared the police response a mere "internal matter" is clearly misleading.)
Has to be seen in the context of Ramón Luis Valcárcel being Spanish and a member of the PP surely?
Maybe but idiotic does't start to cover his words
True, but your post made it look like it was an official EU comment.
I am sure the EU, in common with our own government and no doubt Merkel and Macron etc. are going to find it really difficult to know which line to take on the Catalonia situation.
Not everyone will find it difficult.
One of the countries that has already said it would recognise Catalonia if it voted for independence was Victor Orban's Hungary.
Rather surprising. I wonder why.
No doubt Victor Orban has an eye on the majority Magyar regions outside Hungary, which may want to secede from Romania or Serbia.
There are secessionist groups in Western Europe, but the real problems for the EU are in the East, where they are just hosts of unresolved border issues.
2 October 2017 Updated: 29 September 2017 Latest update: Summary – Demonstrations have taken place in Barcelona and other areas of the Catalonia region and may continue for some days. They may occur with little or no warning and even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can escalate and turn confrontational; you should exercise caution if you're in the vicinity. Demonstrations may also cause some disruption and delays to transport services.
Cheers. I think the general position of the referendum being illegal under Spanish law (hence UK not recognising it), Spain being valued ally of UK, hope for calm, concerns over violence does form something reasonably coherent, though there's an argument over which bits of that message should be being emphasised most explicitly. (I'm sure the private position is also that the Catalan nationalists are provocative and the Spanish government response was stupid and counter-productive, but those aren't very diplomatic views to publicly announce.) Johnson does seem to have been a bit more nuanced in what he spoke rather than the tweet (any idea who authors Johnson's tweets? they don't read like the man himself, though presumably are authorised) which I might say was another indication of the lack of nuance no Twitter and its general unsuitability for political communication, but Johnson was actually concise enough in his spoken words that it might as well have been tweeted.
Cheers. I think the general position of the referendum being illegal under Spanish law (hence UK not recognising it), Spain being valued ally of UK, hope for calm, concerns over violence does form something reasonably coherent, though there's an argument over which bits of that message should be being emphasised most explicitly. (I'm sure the private position is also that the Catalan nationalists are provocative and the Spanish government response was stupid and counter-productive, but those aren't very diplomatic views to publicly announce.) Johnson does seem to have been a bit more nuanced in what he spoke rather than the tweet (any idea who authors Johnson's tweets? they don't read like the man himself, though presumably are authorised) which I might say was another indication of the lack of nuance no Twitter and its general unsuitability for political communication, but Johnson was actually concise enough in his spoken words that it might as well have been tweeted.
My original point was aimed at those using today's events to have a pop at the EU. Johnson merely said what almost all governments everywhere will say. The EU as an institution is largely irrelevant in this.
Cheers. I think the general position of the referendum being illegal under Spanish law (hence UK not recognising it), Spain being valued ally of UK, hope for calm, concerns over violence does form something reasonably coherent, though there's an argument over which bits of that message should be being emphasised most explicitly. (I'm sure the private position is also that the Catalan nationalists are provocative and the Spanish government response was stupid and counter-productive, but those aren't very diplomatic views to publicly announce.) Johnson does seem to have been a bit more nuanced in what he spoke rather than the tweet (any idea who authors Johnson's tweets? they don't read like the man himself, though presumably are authorised) which I might say was another indication of the lack of nuance no Twitter and its general unsuitability for political communication, but Johnson was actually concise enough in his spoken words that it might as well have been tweeted.
My original point was aimed at those using today's events to have a pop at the EU. Johnson merely said what almost all governments everywhere will say. The EU as an institution is largely irrelevant in this.
Re-reading the thread, I think that's a very fair description of what you wrote (and also an accurate point). Didn't intend to accuse you of being deliberately misleading, just that it would be misleading to read it (as SeanT seemed to be doing) as saying that Boris entirely fobbed off the violence issue as "internal". Apologies for any apparent friction. Also sincere condolences that your clearly very painful last few years of politics are entering into yet another convulsion in a place that is very dear to you.
Especially given the importance that was placed on attracting WWC voters. I think one sore point for the Conservatives will be the fact that younger minorities especially can now come directly into contact with some Conservative views on the subject of race online, and I wouldn't be surprised if that put them off the Conservative party, especially this thing of preferring/pitting one ethnic group over the other. For a group of people who claim to not like identity politics, and are about seeing people as individuals I always found it odd that some Conservatives do this.
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable’ - JFK
The issue as I see it is that the Spanish Courts did not rule that the referendum was illegal because it was not properly authorised, they ruled that the Spanish Constitution states that Spain is indivisible by any means and therefore no referendum on Catalonian independence could ever happen. But I have limited internet so maybe if I am wrong someone will correct me.
In this case, frankly the UK Government should not longer be prepared to support the Spanish Government on the grounds that this is a matter for the Spanish Constitution and legal system since this would be in conflict with the fundamental principles of democracy as well as Article 1 of the UN Charter.
"Given the size of the boomer cohort, I actually think it would be possible for the Conservatives to restore their majority without specifically addressing the concerns of the younger generations."
This ^ IMO is a major, possibly existential, medium term problem for the tory party.
Consolidating the older vote, with the meat reserved for the over 45's looks like their *easiest* route to reelection.
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable’ - JFK
The issue as I see it is that the Spanish Courts did not rule that the referendum was illegal because it was not properly authorised, they ruled that the Spanish Constitution states that Spain is indivisible by any means and therefore no referendum on Catalonian independence could ever happen. But I have limited internet so maybe if I am wrong someone will correct me.
In this case, frankly the UK Government should not longer be prepared to support the Spanish Government on the grounds that this is a matter for the Spanish Constitution and legal system since this would be in conflict with the fundamental principles of democracy as well as Article 1 of the UN Charter.
The Spanish constitution ( which was ratified by a referendum ) says Spain is indivisible so a referendum on Catalonian independence would need to be an All Spain one. Of course the Constitution could be amended to allow a Catalan only referendum but that would be an all Spain process. The constitution is very clear. As you say that legality runs up against the morality of self determination. But it's not really different to our Constitution reserving independence matters to Westminster. The only difference in our case is Westminster has granted Scotland a referendum. But what if Westminster had said No ? That dissolving the UK was a UK matter ? We'd be in the same face off between legality and morality.
Especially given the importance that was placed on attracting WWC voters. I think one sore point for the Conservatives will be the fact that younger minorities especially can now come directly into contact with some Conservative views on the subject of race online, and I wouldn't be surprised if that put them off the Conservative party, especially this thing of preferring/pitting one ethnic group over the other. For a group of people who claim to not like identity politics, and are about seeing people as individuals I always found it odd that some Conservatives do this.
My (uncontroversial?) hypothesis is: having UKIP/Dacre on their right flank gave the partially detoxed tory brand a reasonable amount of immunity among minorities. They needed UKIP in order to appeal to minorities. Rightwing bores online & offline could be dismissed as kippers in the minds of (especially better off) con-friendly minorities, even if those racist bores - in reality - voted CON.
Especially given the importance that was placed on attracting WWC voters. I think one sore point for the Conservatives will be the fact that younger minorities especially can now come directly into contact with some Conservative views on the subject of race online, and I wouldn't be surprised if that put them off the Conservative party, especially this thing of preferring/pitting one ethnic group over the other. For a group of people who claim to not like identity politics, and are about seeing people as individuals I always found it odd that some Conservatives do this.
My (uncontroversial?) hypothesis is: having UKIP/Dacre on their right flank gave the partially detoxed tory brand a reasonable amount of immunity among minorities. They needed UKIP in order to appeal to minorities. Rightwing bores online & offline could be dismissed as kippers in the minds of (especially better off) con-friendly minorities, even if those racist bores - in reality - voted CON.
Indeed, although part of it may just be a reversion to the mean. Despite a number of minority MPs elected in 2010 rising through the lower ranks, the very top of the Tory party looks pretty stale and pale - like net curtain twitching and golf club bar bore Britain. That's obviously put off younger voters (in even greater numbers than usual) but also perhaps minorities who traditionally don't vote Conservative and so need evidence of change to actively vote for them. It's rather like in the 1990s when middle-class tradesmen needed evidence and reassurance Labour wasn't going to turn Bennite any moment. Just as Blair had to go above and beyond, the Tories have to to attract groups of voters who have a long history of shunning them.
It's a strange irony that the woman who pointed out the Tories looked out of touch with modern Britain has now, partially due to Brexit and what she inferred from it, partially due to her own and her cabinet's faults, has taken them backwards in that respect - even though the damage is mitigated by a large illiberal vote that didn't particularly exist as a bloc in 1997 and 2001.
So, a 42% turnout in Catalonia according to the Barcelona government, but that number is impossible to verify given that voters were able to download and print out ballot forms, and take them to polling stations. The bottom line is that had the PP just let the referendum happen after it was declared illegal it would almost certainly have been a damp squib and completely ignored around the world. Instead, though, they went back to their Francoist roots and handed the separatists a huge propaganda victory, almost certainly ensuring that in the end - and probably against the best instincts of most Catalans - Catalonia will secure some form of independence. Yet another case of the nationalist right achieving the very opposite of what it claims to want.
“It’s unfair for people who have given up large parts of their life to take care of their close family. They do that with commitment and love, and without regret. To see them having children of their own and then having state support denied seems so incredibly unfair.”
The Department for Work and Pensions stood by the decision to deny child tax credits to carers like Vessey, saying it ensured fairness between claimants and taxpayers who support themselves solely through work.
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable’ - JFK
The issue as I see it is that the Spanish Courts did not rule that the referendum was illegal because it was not properly authorised, they ruled that the Spanish Constitution states that Spain is indivisible by any means and therefore no referendum on Catalonian independence could ever happen. But I have limited internet so maybe if I am wrong someone will correct me.
In this case, frankly the UK Government should not longer be prepared to support the Spanish Government on the grounds that this is a matter for the Spanish Constitution and legal system since this would be in conflict with the fundamental principles of democracy as well as Article 1 of the UN Charter.
The Spanish constitution ( which was ratified by a referendum ) says Spain is indivisible so a referendum on Catalonian independence would need to be an All Spain one. Of course the Constitution could be amended to allow a Catalan only referendum but that would be an all Spain process. The constitution is very clear. As you say that legality runs up against the morality of self determination. But it's not really different to our Constitution reserving independence matters to Westminster. The only difference in our case is Westminster has granted Scotland a referendum. But what if Westminster had said No ? That dissolving the UK was a UK matter ? We'd be in the same face off between legality and morality.
think that the obvious point is that the UK Government resolved the conflict between legality and morality in an appropriate manner whereas Spain has not.
An expert opinion:
On 23 September, the UN Independent Expert on the Promotion of a Democratic and Equitable International Order, Alfred de Zayas, issued a media statement where he advocates for the right of self-determination of Catalan people, reminding "[t]he Spanish Constitution itself stipulates in its articles 10 and 96 the supremacy of international law and in particular international human rights law over of domestic law" and that "self-determination is not limited to the decolonisation context."
So, a 42% turnout in Catalonia according to the Barcelona government, but that number is impossible to verify given that voters were able to download and print out ballot forms, and take them to polling stations. The bottom line is that had the PP just let the referendum happen after it was declared illegal it would almost certainly have been a damp squib and completely ignored around the world. Instead, though, they went back to their Francoist roots and handed the separatists a huge propaganda victory, almost certainly ensuring that in the end - and probably against the best instincts of most Catalans - Catalonia will secure some form of independence. Yet another case of the nationalist right achieving the very opposite of what it claims to want.
So, a 42% turnout in Catalonia according to the Barcelona government, but that number is impossible to verify given that voters were able to download and print out ballot forms, and take them to polling stations. The bottom line is that had the PP just let the referendum happen after it was declared illegal it would almost certainly have been a damp squib and completely ignored around the world. Instead, though, they went back to their Francoist roots and handed the separatists a huge propaganda victory, almost certainly ensuring that in the end - and probably against the best instincts of most Catalans - Catalonia will secure some form of independence. Yet another case of the nationalist right achieving the very opposite of what it claims to want.
I have close family in Barcelona who are appalled, saddened and apprehensive about these developments. But they tell me something I don't read here or in the UK or European media, namely that the local police in many instances simply failed or didn't even try to close the unofficial polling stations, as they were instructed to do by the courts. So the national police stepped in as they were required to do in these circumstances.
Yep, the Mossos - the Catalan police force - are controlled by an avowed separatist and have singularly failed to enforce the law they are supposed to uphold. The situation in Catalonia is very complex and there are no real good guys. But today's pictures trump all of that. Catalonia will be seen internationally from here on in as Northern Ireland used to be seen internationally: the British state brutalising largely innocent nationalists.
Congratulations. You have won the BBC Prize for the Most Farfetched Blame of Brexit.
Seriously? An airline that has been making losses for years finally goes bust and you blame Brexit?
He's not actually wrong though. Monarch themselves stated that the current issue is they earn sterling but pay for everything in with dollars (fuel, plane rental) or euros (landing / handling fees). Hence the fall from $1.55 to $1.20 didn't do them any favours and that currency depreciation is (by most people) blamed on Brexit and Carney's thoughtless reduction of interest rates to 0.25%
So, a 42% turnout in Catalonia according to the Barcelona government, but that number is impossible to verify given that voters were able to download and print out ballot forms, and take them to polling stations. The bottom line is that had the PP just let the referendum happen after it was declared illegal it would almost certainly have been a damp squib and completely ignored around the world. Instead, though, they went back to their Francoist roots and handed the separatists a huge propaganda victory, almost certainly ensuring that in the end - and probably against the best instincts of most Catalans - Catalonia will secure some form of independence. Yet another case of the nationalist right achieving the very opposite of what it claims to want.
Can I thank you for your coverage of events in Spain over the last few months, SO? I think your analysis has been right on the money.
Cheers. It's somewhere I care about a lot having lived in Catalonia for a few years in the late 80s and early 90s.
I would like to add my thanks as well. I too spent some time in Barcelona in the early 1980's and go back regularly, as one of my closest friends lives there. She is heartbroken at what is happening.
I have close family in Barcelona who are appalled, saddened and apprehensive about these developments. But they tell me something I don't read here or in the UK or European media, namely that the local police in many instances simply failed or didn't even try to close the unofficial polling stations, as they were instructed to do by the courts. So the national police stepped in as they were required to do in these circumstances.
Yep, the Mossos - the Catalan police force - are controlled by an avowed separatist and have singularly failed to enforce the law they are supposed to uphold. The situation in Catalonia is very complex and there are no real good guys. But today's pictures trump all of that. Catalonia will be seen internationally from here on in as Northern Ireland used to be seen internationally: the British state brutalising largely innocent nationalists.
Was NI seen like that abroad? News to me.
That's how it was presented by NorAid in places like Boston.
Mr. Royale, I recall hearing a few years ago that some Irish-Americans (who funded terrorists there) saw the British as an occupying power. The truth, of course, was really rather different.
Just an aside, but Barcelona is named after the Barca family, to whom Hannibal Barca belonged.
I have close family in Barcelona who are appalled, saddened and apprehensive about these developments. But they tell me something I don't read here or in the UK or European media, namely that the local police in many instances simply failed or didn't even try to close the unofficial polling stations, as they were instructed to do by the courts. So the national police stepped in as they were required to do in these circumstances.
Yep, the Mossos - the Catalan police force - are controlled by an avowed separatist and have singularly failed to enforce the law they are supposed to uphold. The situation in Catalonia is very complex and there are no real good guys. But today's pictures trump all of that. Catalonia will be seen internationally from here on in as Northern Ireland used to be seen internationally: the British state brutalising largely innocent nationalists.
Was NI seen like that abroad? News to me.
Yes - it was (in part). Northern Irish Unionists had few friends in Continental Europe. Discrimination against Catholics - and the British State's failure to deal with it adequately - was not viewed favourably by Catholic communities abroad.
Remember also that Britain was found guilty of torture by the ECHR, reduced to a finding of cruel and degrading treatment.
So, a 42% turnout in Catalonia according to the Barcelona government, but that number is impossible to verify given that voters were able to download and print out ballot forms, and take them to polling stations. The bottom line is that had the PP just let the referendum happen after it was declared illegal it would almost certainly have been a damp squib and completely ignored around the world. Instead, though, they went back to their Francoist roots and handed the separatists a huge propaganda victory, almost certainly ensuring that in the end - and probably against the best instincts of most Catalans - Catalonia will secure some form of independence. Yet another case of the nationalist right achieving the very opposite of what it claims to want.
Can I thank you for your coverage of events in Spain over the last few months, SO? I think your analysis has been right on the money.
Amen to that. One question - aren't the regional government also in their own way of the nationalist right (though support for independence is widely distributed across the political spectrum) ?
UK CAA have chartered at least 10 planes, mainly from Qatar. They’ll be using them to fly Monarch’s return schedule for the next fortnight to get people home. Thankfully the CAA knew this was coming and have been able to plan for it.
I keep hearing that the 7m Catalans are a wealthy part of Spain. What does Spain's economy look like with Catalonia gone? (And how much is wealthy Catalonia going to be expected to pay into the EU coffers to join? Has there been any consideration of this by those voting for independence?)
I have close family in Barcelona who are appalled, saddened and apprehensive about these developments. But they tell me something I don't read here or in the UK or European media, namely that the local police in many instances simply failed or didn't even try to close the unofficial polling stations, as they were instructed to do by the courts. So the national police stepped in as they were required to do in these circumstances.
Yep, the Mossos - the Catalan police force - are controlled by an avowed separatist and have singularly failed to enforce the law they are supposed to uphold. The situation in Catalonia is very complex and there are no real good guys. But today's pictures trump all of that. Catalonia will be seen internationally from here on in as Northern Ireland used to be seen internationally: the British state brutalising largely innocent nationalists.
Was NI seen like that abroad? News to me.
There could, at the time, be ‘interesting’ conversatiions with Americans.
So, a 42% turnout in Catalonia according to the Barcelona government, but that number is impossible to verify given that voters were able to download and print out ballot forms, and take them to polling stations. The bottom line is that had the PP just let the referendum happen after it was declared illegal it would almost certainly have been a damp squib and completely ignored around the world. Instead, though, they went back to their Francoist roots and handed the separatists a huge propaganda victory, almost certainly ensuring that in the end - and probably against the best instincts of most Catalans - Catalonia will secure some form of independence. Yet another case of the nationalist right achieving the very opposite of what it claims to want.
Can I thank you for your coverage of events in Spain over the last few months, SO? I think your analysis has been right on the money.
Amen to that. One question - aren't the regional government also in their own way of the nationalist right (though support for independence is widely distributed across the political spectrum) ?
It's a left-right coalition. Puigdemont - its leader - is from the nationalist right. His deputy - Oriols - is from the nationalist left.
Congratulations. You have won the BBC Prize for the Most Farfetched Blame of Brexit.
Seriously? An airline that has been making losses for years finally goes bust and you blame Brexit?
Everything is going to get blamed on Brexit for the next few decades. We rejoiners have been well schooled in mendacity and cynicism by the Leave campaign. Everything that goes wrong is the fault of Brexit.
Congratulations. You have won the BBC Prize for the Most Farfetched Blame of Brexit.
Seriously? An airline that has been making losses for years finally goes bust and you blame Brexit?
He's not actually wrong though. Monarch themselves stated that the current issue is they earn sterling but pay for everything in with dollars (fuel, plane rental) or euros (landing / handling fees). Hence the fall from $1.55 to $1.20 didn't do them any favours and that currency depreciation is (by most people) blamed on Brexit and Carney's thoughtless reduction of interest rates to 0.25%
Goodness. ALL UK airlines earn sterling and pay dollars. So the obvious reactions were (a) to hedge the currency risk like everyone else and/or (b) raise your prices if your input costs are rising. If you can't do this because it makes you too expensive it suggests that your service and operating model is to blame. And the fall in interest rates would have helped them reduce their debt service costs.
Congratulations. You have won the BBC Prize for the Most Farfetched Blame of Brexit.
Seriously? An airline that has been making losses for years finally goes bust and you blame Brexit?
He's not actually wrong though. Monarch themselves stated that the current issue is they earn sterling but pay for everything in with dollars (fuel, plane rental) or euros (landing / handling fees). Hence the fall from $1.55 to $1.20 didn't do them any favours and that currency depreciation is (by most people) blamed on Brexit and Carney's thoughtless reduction of interest rates to 0.25%
Goodness. ALL UK airlines earn sterling and pay dollars. So the obvious reactions were (a) to hedge the currency risk like everyone else and/or (b) raise your prices if your input costs are rising. If you can't do this because it makes you too expensive it suggests that your service and operating model is to blame. And the fall in interest rates would have helped them reduce their debt service costs.
But Brexit? Really?
You forget that all bad news is because of Brexit, and all good news is despite Brexit.
So, a 42% turnout in Catalonia according to the Barcelona government, but that number is impossible to verify given that voters were able to download and print out ballot forms, and take them to polling stations. The bottom line is that had the PP just let the referendum happen after it was declared illegal it would almost certainly have been a damp squib and completely ignored around the world. Instead, though, they went back to their Francoist roots and handed the separatists a huge propaganda victory, almost certainly ensuring that in the end - and probably against the best instincts of most Catalans - Catalonia will secure some form of independence. Yet another case of the nationalist right achieving the very opposite of what it claims to want.
Can I thank you for your coverage of events in Spain over the last few months, SO? I think your analysis has been right on the money.
Cheers. It's somewhere I care about a lot having lived in Catalonia for a few years in the late 80s and early 90s.
I would like to add my thanks as well. I too spent some time in Barcelona in the early 1980's and go back regularly, as one of my closest friends lives there. She is heartbroken at what is happening.
Seconded, well done to Mr Observer for the Spanish coverage. I also spent some time in Barcelona, in 2001 and 2002. Loved the place.
Congratulations. You have won the BBC Prize for the Most Farfetched Blame of Brexit.
Seriously? An airline that has been making losses for years finally goes bust and you blame Brexit?
He's not actually wrong though. Monarch themselves stated that the current issue is they earn sterling but pay for everything in with dollars (fuel, plane rental) or euros (landing / handling fees). Hence the fall from $1.55 to $1.20 didn't do them any favours and that currency depreciation is (by most people) blamed on Brexit and Carney's thoughtless reduction of interest rates to 0.25%
Goodness. ALL UK airlines earn sterling and pay dollars. So the obvious reactions were (a) to hedge the currency risk like everyone else and/or (b) raise your prices if your input costs are rising. If you can't do this because it makes you too expensive it suggests that your service and operating model is to blame. And the fall in interest rates would have helped them reduce their debt service costs.
But Brexit? Really?
I think the currency moves are the final straw. The decline in package tours in general, and to Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia especially probably undermined their operating model first.
Or simply it may well be that other airlines just havent collapsed yet. Ryanair is doing itself real harm, and BA has shown a bit of strain too.
Just heard on Radio Scotland news that May is going to announce today that "She" and Ruth Davidson saved the Union in iRefScot.
Ta! Very much, May has just wiped out the relevancy of the Tories in Scotland.
Many people voted in the referendum having weighed up the arguments, pro and anti, with their hearts and minds, So, while Tory, Labour, LibDems could have been considered natural No's, many voted Yes, while many in the SNP voted No. The question of Independence had been argued for years, especially since 2007 when the SNP came to power, the clue being in the name and the realisation that the leadership of the party would be demanding a referendum at some point.
That many in Scotland now look at Brexit and see what a near miss the result of iRef was, has even many in the SNP questioning the relevance of the Party to Scotland. The Leadership were expected to announce next week, at their conference, that they will now concentrate on the bread and butter issues of running Scotland and put the arguments for iRef2 on the back burner until Brexit had been sorted (which, brings to mind, what on earth have they been doing since '07).
So thanks Theresa, for nothing, your presence was non existent in the run up to iRef, and Ruthie, poncing around in her little white tank doing Thatcher impressions was mostly ignored. And May, in her ignorance of how her speech will play, has virtually killed off Ruthie's chances - unless, of course, that was what was intended.....
I keep hearing that the 7m Catalans are a wealthy part of Spain. What does Spain's economy look like with Catalonia gone? (And how much is wealthy Catalonia going to be expected to pay into the EU coffers to join? Has there been any consideration of this by those voting for independence?)
As I mentioned last night, one newspaper yesterday was saying that Catalonia represented 16% of the Spanish population but 25% of the Spanish GDP.
Congratulations. You have won the BBC Prize for the Most Farfetched Blame of Brexit.
Seriously? An airline that has been making losses for years finally goes bust and you blame Brexit?
He's not actually wrong though. Monarch themselves stated that the current issue is they earn sterling but pay for everything in with dollars (fuel, plane rental) or euros (landing / handling fees). Hence the fall from $1.55 to $1.20 didn't do them any favours and that currency depreciation is (by most people) blamed on Brexit and Carney's thoughtless reduction of interest rates to 0.25%
Some exaggeration there. According to all the charts Brexit caused a fall from $1.44 to $1.22 and in fact it is now back up at $1.32.
All the analysis so far has said Monarch's problems stem from the collapse in their Turkish, Egyptian and Tunisian markets due to political strife and their need to concentrate on the saturated short haul stuff to Southern Europe. Blaming Brexit is rather far fetched to say the least.
Congratulations. You have won the BBC Prize for the Most Farfetched Blame of Brexit.
Seriously? An airline that has been making losses for years finally goes bust and you blame Brexit?
He's not actually wrong though. Monarch themselves stated that the current issue is they earn sterling but pay for everything in with dollars (fuel, plane rental) or euros (landing / handling fees). Hence the fall from $1.55 to $1.20 didn't do them any favours and that currency depreciation is (by most people) blamed on Brexit and Carney's thoughtless reduction of interest rates to 0.25%
Some exaggeration there. According to all the charts Brexit caused a fall from $1.44 to $1.22 and in fact it is now back up at $1.32.
All the analysis so far has said Monarch's problems stem from the collapse in their Turkish, Egyptian and Tunisian markets due to political strife and their need to concentrate on the saturated short haul stuff to Southern Europe. Blaming Brexit is rather far fetched to say the least.
In any case Monarch, like any other company would not be exposed to spot exchange rates.
Congratulations. You have won the BBC Prize for the Most Farfetched Blame of Brexit.
Seriously? An airline that has been making losses for years finally goes bust and you blame Brexit?
He's not actually wrong though. Monarch themselves stated that the current issue is they earn sterling but pay for everything in with dollars (fuel, plane rental) or euros (landing / handling fees). Hence the fall from $1.55 to $1.20 didn't do them any favours and that currency depreciation is (by most people) blamed on Brexit and Carney's thoughtless reduction of interest rates to 0.25%
Goodness. ALL UK airlines earn sterling and pay dollars. So the obvious reactions were (a) to hedge the currency risk like everyone else and/or (b) raise your prices if your input costs are rising. If you can't do this because it makes you too expensive it suggests that your service and operating model is to blame. And the fall in interest rates would have helped them reduce their debt service costs.
But Brexit? Really?
I think the currency moves are the final straw. The decline in package tours in general, and to Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia especially probably undermined their operating model first.
Or simply it may well be that other airlines just havent collapsed yet. Ryanair is doing itself real harm, and BA has shown a bit of strain too.
BA would be bailed out by the government if it hit trouble.
Comments
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-catalonia-britain-bori/britain-worried-by-violence-in-catalonia-but-says-vote-was-not-constitutional-johnson-idUSKCN1C61QO
“We are obviously worried by any violence but clearly the referendum, as I understand it, is not constitutional so a balance needs to be struck,” Johnson told Reuters. “We hope very much that things will calm down.”
Bit mealy-mouthed, still, but rather better than just saying it was an internal matter. (Though it is possible Southam is either quoting from another interview/soundbite I haven't seen, or has only heard a summary relating to Britain not deciding on the legality of the vote and that being an internal Spanish matter. I love Southam and am very happy to grant benefit of the doubt as to where his post is coming from. But the idea that Boris has refused to mention the violence and declared the police response a mere "internal matter" is clearly misleading.)
One of the countries that has already said it would recognise Catalonia if it voted for independence was Victor Orban's Hungary.
Rather surprising. I wonder why.
No doubt Victor Orban has an eye on the majority Magyar regions outside Hungary, which may want to secede from Romania or Serbia.
There are secessionist groups in Western Europe, but the real problems for the EU are in the East, where they are just hosts of unresolved border issues.
2 October 2017 Updated: 29 September 2017 Latest update:
Summary – Demonstrations have taken place in Barcelona and other areas of the Catalonia region and may continue for some days. They may occur with little or no warning and even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can escalate and turn confrontational; you should exercise caution if you're in the vicinity. Demonstrations may also cause some disruption and delays to transport services.
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/spain
Especially given the importance that was placed on attracting WWC voters. I think one sore point for the Conservatives will be the fact that younger minorities especially can now come directly into contact with some Conservative views on the subject of race online, and I wouldn't be surprised if that put them off the Conservative party, especially this thing of preferring/pitting one ethnic group over the other. For a group of people who claim to not like identity politics, and are about seeing people as individuals I always found it odd that some Conservatives do this.
The issue as I see it is that the Spanish Courts did not rule that the referendum was illegal because it was not properly authorised, they ruled that the Spanish Constitution states that Spain is indivisible by any means and therefore no referendum on Catalonian independence could ever happen. But I have limited internet so maybe if I am wrong someone will correct me.
In this case, frankly the UK Government should not longer be prepared to support the Spanish Government on the grounds that this is a matter for the Spanish Constitution and legal system since this would be in conflict with the fundamental principles of democracy as well as Article 1 of the UN Charter.
This ^ IMO is a major, possibly existential, medium term problem for the tory party.
Consolidating the older vote, with the meat reserved for the over 45's looks like their *easiest* route to reelection.
https://www.ft.com/content/58bb3090-a53d-11e7-9e4f-7f5e6a7c98a2
Ryanair need pilots, right?
It's a strange irony that the woman who pointed out the Tories looked out of touch with modern Britain has now, partially due to Brexit and what she inferred from it, partially due to her own and her cabinet's faults, has taken them backwards in that respect - even though the damage is mitigated by a large illiberal vote that didn't particularly exist as a bloc in 1997 and 2001.
https://monarch.caa.co.uk
Un 90% de ‘síes’ con 2,2 millones de votos y una abstención del 58%, según el Govern
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/10/02/catalunya/1506898063_586836.html
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/oct/01/kinship-carers-denied-thousands-of-pounds-over-two-child-cap
“It’s unfair for people who have given up large parts of their life to take care of their close family. They do that with commitment and love, and without regret. To see them having children of their own and then having state support denied seems so incredibly unfair.”
The Department for Work and Pensions stood by the decision to deny child tax credits to carers like Vessey, saying it ensured fairness between claimants and taxpayers who support themselves solely through work.
Callous Tories.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/02/monarch-airlines-goes-administration-leaving-110000-holidaymakers/
An expert opinion:
On 23 September, the UN Independent Expert on the Promotion of a Democratic and Equitable International Order, Alfred de Zayas, issued a media statement where he advocates for the right of self-determination of Catalan people, reminding "[t]he Spanish Constitution itself stipulates in its articles 10 and 96 the supremacy of international law and in particular international human rights law over of domestic law" and that "self-determination is not limited to the decolonisation context."
Seriously? An airline that has been making losses for years finally goes bust and you blame Brexit?
Mr. Royale, I recall hearing a few years ago that some Irish-Americans (who funded terrorists there) saw the British as an occupying power. The truth, of course, was really rather different.
Just an aside, but Barcelona is named after the Barca family, to whom Hannibal Barca belonged.
Remember also that Britain was found guilty of torture by the ECHR, reduced to a finding of cruel and degrading treatment.
One question - aren't the regional government also in their own way of the nationalist right (though support for independence is widely distributed across the political spectrum) ?
Information for passengers at https://monarch.caa.co.uk
Mr. Sandpit, sounds like good planning from the CAA.
But Brexit? Really?
Or simply it may well be that other airlines just havent collapsed yet. Ryanair is doing itself real harm, and BA has shown a bit of strain too.
Ta! Very much, May has just wiped out the relevancy of the Tories in Scotland.
Many people voted in the referendum having weighed up the arguments, pro and anti, with their hearts and minds, So, while Tory, Labour, LibDems could have been considered natural No's, many voted Yes, while many in the SNP voted No. The question of Independence had been argued for years, especially since 2007 when the SNP came to power, the clue being in the name and the realisation that the leadership of the party would be demanding a referendum at some point.
That many in Scotland now look at Brexit and see what a near miss the result of iRef was, has even many in the SNP questioning the relevance of the Party to Scotland. The Leadership were expected to announce next week, at their conference, that they will now concentrate on the bread and butter issues of running Scotland and put the arguments for iRef2 on the back burner until Brexit had been sorted (which, brings to mind, what on earth have they been doing since '07).
So thanks Theresa, for nothing, your presence was non existent in the run up to iRef, and Ruthie, poncing around in her little white tank doing Thatcher impressions was mostly ignored. And May, in her ignorance of how her speech will play, has virtually killed off Ruthie's chances - unless, of course, that was what was intended.....
https://www.ft.com/content/f73d2c11-db96-3e86-b651-ef76b5af1033
The board are hoping the name change will put an end to years of crude innuendo.
They've settled on "Private ENergy Investment Services"
All the analysis so far has said Monarch's problems stem from the collapse in their Turkish, Egyptian and Tunisian markets due to political strife and their need to concentrate on the saturated short haul stuff to Southern Europe. Blaming Brexit is rather far fetched to say the least.