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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Rudd moves up in the next CON leader betting but Corbyn

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    TOPPING said:

    Hmm super mediocre.

    He doesn't really seem to believe in it if there's anything he did seem to believe was the transparent bullshit of saying how much better we would be outside the EU.

    Apparently he thinks it's not bad in the EU either:

    You see it in Estonia, tech hub with a high degree of social protection – where they have a flat tax of 20 per cent.

    In Romania they have a flat tax of 16 per cent and free health and education AND higher education.

    In Hungary they have a tax rate of 15 per cent – 15 per cent?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited October 2017
    Johnson talks well - better than anyone else in his party. But best not to look at him while he speaks. He has a blank and empty expression. It's words without meaning.
  • Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Brian Coleman could be fast-tracked for the Conservative leadership.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    Pulpstar said:

    The new university funding plan seems very fair to me. Although changing the repayment threshold to £25,000 for all plan II starters.
    Of course for each student loan written into the books, the gov't now takes on a fair bit more effective debt.
    I'm going to take a deeper look at the new arrangement in a blog post later on :).

    For information is the 25k now fixed, or will it move up with inflation/wage inflation ?

    Edit:I'm not bothering to watch Boris's speech btw.

    They probably haven't thought that far ahead.
  • Boris makes the same speech every year. It's the Boris is Boris speech. Not the Boris is a credible PM speech.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    This is the thing. He can get a point across.

    He'll be far, far, far more effective against Corbyn in a TV debate than someone like Rudd.
  • tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The new university funding plan seems very fair to me. Although changing the repayment threshold to £25,000 for all plan II starters.
    Of course for each student loan written into the books, the gov't now takes on a fair bit more effective debt.
    I'm going to take a deeper look at the new arrangement in a blog post later on :).

    For information is the 25k now fixed, or will it move up with inflation/wage inflation ?

    Edit:I'm not bothering to watch Boris's speech btw.

    They probably haven't thought that far ahead.
    As far as I am aware it is pegged to CPI
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
  • Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    MikeL said:

    This is the thing. He can get a point across.

    He'll be far, far, far more effective against Corbyn in a TV debate than someone like Rudd.
    And far, far, far more present in a TV debate than someone like May.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

    Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited October 2017
    Ruth Davidson's speech was a lot more interesting and inspiring (and funnier as well). But, to be fair, Boris did some very good Labour-bashing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    He really did throw that speech together at the last moment.

    Perhaps he prepared two speeches and this was the better of the two ...
  • Rurh Davidson's speech was a lot more interesting and inspiring (and funnier as well). But, to be fair, Boris did some very good Labour-bashing.

    You could see why both David Cameron and Theresa May thought Boris Johnson was perfectly suited to be Tory Chairman.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Boris bringing me round in this speech. Needed lots more of this

    It's just stock Tory cliches? Good for a leadership bid but nothing new to interest non-Tories
    Caracus !!!
    John Rentoul is claiming credit for that one. Though one art of a good politician is to give expression to other people's ideas.
  • Rurh Davidson's speech was a lot more interesting and inspiring (and funnier as well). But, to be fair, Boris did some very good Labour-bashing.

    You could see why both David Cameron and Theresa May thought Boris Johnson was perfectly suited to be Tory Chairman.
    Yes, provided there was someone else to do the hard work behind the scenes.
  • Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

    Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.
    I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Essexit said:

    MikeL said:

    This is the thing. He can get a point across.

    He'll be far, far, far more effective against Corbyn in a TV debate than someone like Rudd.
    And far, far, far more present in a TV debate than someone like May.
    Indeed.

    I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

    And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    FF43 said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
    The Tories can beat Corbyn

    All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


    BJ not the man.

    Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

    The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

    PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

    Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.
    I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech
    Exactly.

    He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

    And he'll absolutely destroy him.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    edited October 2017
    MikeL said:

    This is the thing. He can get a point across.

    He'll be far, far, far more effective against Corbyn in a TV debate than someone like Rudd.
    Briefly. You just know it'd all fall apart within 24 hours when the fact-checking kicked in, after he'd winged it and thrown in a half-remembered stat.

    Boris is a fine campaigner (as is Corbyn, for that matter). But to lead a government, you need a great deal more than that.

    All he's done today is prove that he's a good frontman. He could make a decent Party Chairman, given two strong deputies. What he hasn't done is anything to reassure that he would be a good PM (and unlike Corbyn, the next Tory leader is very likely to go into the next election as PM and so will be judged by his or her record in office to that date).

    Funnily enough, the one who did put together a coherent and attractive message today was Jeremy Hunt. I wouldn't rule him out yet.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    edited October 2017
    MikeL said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

    Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.
    I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech
    Exactly.

    He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

    And he'll absolutely destroy him.
    Can’t trecall; did he debate head to head with Livingstone? And if he did, how did it go?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited October 2017
    MikeL said:


    Indeed.

    I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

    And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

    I genuinely don't know. He clearly stands out from the other Conservatives, but whether in a good way for them, I am not sure. I think the Conservatives would probably be better jumping past the old guard to a new generation, which is presumably why Johnson wants to move fast.

    Edit. You say he is good at getting his point across. But he doesn't have any points to get across. That's his problem.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2017

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The new university funding plan seems very fair to me. Although changing the repayment threshold to £25,000 for all plan II starters.
    Of course for each student loan written into the books, the gov't now takes on a fair bit more effective debt.
    I'm going to take a deeper look at the new arrangement in a blog post later on :).

    For information is the 25k now fixed, or will it move up with inflation/wage inflation ?

    Edit:I'm not bothering to watch Boris's speech btw.

    They probably haven't thought that far ahead.
    As far as I am aware it is pegged to CPI
    "linked to earnings" IIRC.

    The IFS have some good background reading. I can't quite get my head around the "RAB", but I think that formula/calculation is the essential bit to work out how much of the loan actually gets paid back at various thresholds/interest rates etc.

    But yeah, it's effectively a significant permanent(?!!) tax cut for Plan2 graduates. As far as I can tell, they will still pay a fair bit more than plan 1 grads (like me!) - especially higher earners - but it's definitely fairer for them than it was before.
  • MikeL said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

    Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.
    I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech
    Exactly.

    He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

    And he'll absolutely destroy him.
    Can’t trecall; did he debate head to head with Livingstone? And if he did, how did it go?
    It was a bit stilted as I recall - a lot of nuance about bus fares, which suited Ken but not so much Boris. Of course, Jezza would also try to be all earnest, low key and serious, which would cramp Boris's style.
  • FF43 said:

    MikeL said:


    Indeed.

    I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

    And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

    I genuinely don't know. He clearly stands out from the other Conservatives, but whether in a good way for them, I am not sure. I think the Conservatives would probably be better jumping past the old guard to a new generation, which is presumably why Johnson wants to move fast.
    He will have improved his position with that speech and if he keeps on script he must be favourite to succeed TM but as we have no idea when that might be a new generation MP could come through.

    Nothing is certain anymore in politics including, as some on here think, Corbyn as PM
  • O/T

    The Duchess of Cornwall only chose to sleep with Prince Charles in the 1970s as an act of revenge on her boyfriend who was sleeping with the prince’s sister, her biographer claimed yesterday.

    Penny Junor said that in 1971 Camilla Shand, as she was then, was so fed up with the philandering of her boyfriend and future husband Andrew Parker Bowles that she got her own back.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/camilla-seduced-charles-to-exact-revenge-claims-biographer-penny-junor-gjxlhtxgl
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    FF43 said:

    MikeL said:


    Indeed.

    I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

    And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

    I genuinely don't know. He clearly stands out from the other Conservatives, but whether in a good way for them, I am not sure. I think the Conservatives would probably be better jumping past the old guard to a new generation, which is presumably why Johnson wants to move fast.
    He will have improved his position with that speech and if he keeps on script he must be favourite to succeed TM but as we have no idea when that might be a new generation MP could come through.

    Nothing is certain anymore in politics including, as some on here think, Corbyn as PM
    Only Davidson or Boris can beat Corbyn it feels to me. Even that isn't a given and we may be experiencing a sea change in politics where no one can stop Jezza.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    The likes of Hunt, Rudd etc are all jolly good people but they won't be good enough in a GE campaign.

    The TV debate Rudd did is a perfect example. She did well. But she was nowhere near landing knockout blows on Corbyn.

    In order to win, Con has to have someone with 100% cut through who will destroy Corbyn on subjects like high taxes and exchange controls. Only Boris will do that.

    As for being a PM - well famously Cameron was lazy - Boris as PM will be the front man.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    FF43 said:

    MikeL said:


    Indeed.

    I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

    And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

    I genuinely don't know. He clearly stands out from the other Conservatives, but whether in a good way for them, I am not sure. I think the Conservatives would probably be better jumping past the old guard to a new generation, which is presumably why Johnson wants to move fast.
    He will have improved his position with that speech and if he keeps on script he must be favourite to succeed TM but as we have no idea when that might be a new generation MP could come through.

    Nothing is certain anymore in politics including, as some on here think, Corbyn as PM
    Will Theresa's standing ovation beat IDS's?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    FF43 said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
    I learnt the word 'dubitation'.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    FF43 said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
    The Tories can beat Corbyn

    All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


    BJ not the man.

    Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

    The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

    PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.
    Inequality is falling, isn't it?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    MikeL said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

    Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.
    I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech
    Exactly.

    He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

    And he'll absolutely destroy him.
    Fantasy Island stuff
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    FF43 said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
    The Tories can beat Corbyn

    All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


    BJ not the man.

    Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

    The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

    PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.
    Inequality is falling, isn't it?
    Relative to the 1%?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Pong said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The new university funding plan seems very fair to me. Although changing the repayment threshold to £25,000 for all plan II starters.
    Of course for each student loan written into the books, the gov't now takes on a fair bit more effective debt.
    I'm going to take a deeper look at the new arrangement in a blog post later on :).

    For information is the 25k now fixed, or will it move up with inflation/wage inflation ?

    Edit:I'm not bothering to watch Boris's speech btw.

    They probably haven't thought that far ahead.
    As far as I am aware it is pegged to CPI
    "linked to earnings" IIRC.

    The IFS have some good background reading. I can't quite get my head around the "RAB", but I think that formula/calculation is the essential bit to work out how much of the loan actually gets paid back at various thresholds/interest rates etc.

    But yeah, it's effectively a significant permanent(?!!) tax cut for Plan2 graduates. As far as I can tell, they will still pay a fair bit more than plan 1 grads (like me!) - especially higher earners - but it's definitely fairer for them than it was before.
    http://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/2017/05/02/will-student-loan-written-off/

    A whole series of different 'cut off' dates, earnings thresholds and nominal outstanding amounts (The nominal outstanding amount now has little to do with reality for most graduates)
  • FF43 said:

    MikeL said:


    Indeed.

    I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

    And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

    I genuinely don't know. He clearly stands out from the other Conservatives, but whether in a good way for them, I am not sure. I think the Conservatives would probably be better jumping past the old guard to a new generation, which is presumably why Johnson wants to move fast.
    He will have improved his position with that speech and if he keeps on script he must be favourite to succeed TM but as we have no idea when that might be a new generation MP could come through.

    Nothing is certain anymore in politics including, as some on here think, Corbyn as PM
    Will Theresa's standing ovation beat IDS's?
    Lets see
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2017
    MikeL said:

    The likes of Hunt, Rudd etc are all jolly good people but they won't be good enough in a GE campaign.

    The TV debate Rudd did is a perfect example. She did well. But she was nowhere near landing knockout blows on Corbyn.

    In order to win, Con has to have someone with 100% cut through who will destroy Corbyn on subjects like high taxes and exchange controls. Only Boris will do that.

    As for being a PM - well famously Cameron was lazy - Boris as PM will be the front man.

    Cameron was lazy is a bit of myth. All the civil servants have said he always did his red box on time etc etc etc, as did clegg, unlike workaholic Gordon who had massive backlogs of day to day government business. Cameron saw pm as akin to ceo of a big company and let others do the day to day management of their own departments.

    I actually don’t think that is a bad approach compared to tony, bad al and Gordon’s micromanaging.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545

    MikeL said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

    Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.
    I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech
    Exactly.

    He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

    And he'll absolutely destroy him.
    Can’t trecall; did he debate head to head with Livingstone? And if he did, how did it go?
    I remember that he did on Newsnight. He was good - because he went very serious. All the jokes were gone, it was about buses, housing, pollution etc if I remember (was years ago.) If he had serious ambitions about being PM, it's a mode he could do with switching back into from time to time.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    FF43 said:

    MikeL said:


    Indeed.

    I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

    And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

    I genuinely don't know. He clearly stands out from the other Conservatives, but whether in a good way for them, I am not sure. I think the Conservatives would probably be better jumping past the old guard to a new generation, which is presumably why Johnson wants to move fast.
    He will have improved his position with that speech and if he keeps on script he must be favourite to succeed TM but as we have no idea when that might be a new generation MP could come through.

    Nothing is certain anymore in politics including, as some on here think, Corbyn as PM
    I quite fancy seeing Boris as PM if only for the spectacle of the rude awakening he would get time and time again as he finds out the difference between fantasy and reality.

    Many foreign politicians seem to actively dislike him as Foreign Sec. I doubt that they would love him much more as PM.

    It would almost be worth watching Boris get elected, yank us straight to WTO and then run when the s**t hits the fan (just like the last time!)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
    The Tories can beat Corbyn

    All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


    BJ not the man.

    Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

    The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

    PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.
    Inequality is falling, isn't it?
    Relative to the 1%?
    FTSE 100 Directors vs the disabled since 2010?

    I think everyone knows the answer
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited October 2017

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
    The Tories can beat Corbyn

    All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


    BJ not the man.

    Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

    The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

    PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.
    Inequality is falling, isn't it?
    Relative to the 1%?
    FTSE 100 Directors vs the disabled since 2010?

    I think everyone knows the answer
    That's not even the 1%, more like the 0.001%.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
    The Tories can beat Corbyn

    All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


    BJ not the man.

    Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

    The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

    PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.
    Inequality is falling, isn't it?
    Relative to the 1%?
    FTSE 100 Directors vs the disabled since 2010?

    I think everyone knows the answer
    Not exactly the Gini coefficient is it
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited October 2017
    Essexit said:

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
    The Tories can beat Corbyn

    All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


    BJ not the man.

    Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

    The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

    PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.
    Inequality is falling, isn't it?
    Relative to the 1%?
    FTSE 100 Directors vs the disabled since 2010?

    I think everyone knows the answer
    Not exactly the Gini coefficient is it
    When one stat doesn't give you the answer you like, make up a new one. See also the definition of poverty.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
    The Tories can beat Corbyn

    All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


    BJ not the man.

    Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

    The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

    PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.
    Inequality is falling, isn't it?
    Relative to the 1%?
    FTSE 100 Directors vs the disabled since 2010?

    I think everyone knows the answer
    Both groups are outliers.
  • MikeL said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

    Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.
    I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech
    Exactly.

    He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

    And he'll absolutely destroy him.

    I don't see how Boris would destroy Corbyn. Neither does detail, both are lazy and like to talk with big pictures. I doubt there is anything in Boris's armoury that would cause Corbyn a sleepless night. Boris is a polarising figure who has burned up a lot of the goodwill he had created as mayor of London.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited October 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Guido Fawkes ✔@GuidoFawkes
    WATCH Alan Duncan: Brexit is "Tantrum" Thrown By Working Class https://order-order.com/2017/10/03/alan-duncan-brexit-tantrum-thrown-working-class/

    twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/915239270293663744

    don't forget racists.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    He really did throw that speech together at the last moment.

    Did this one hurt ?

    "With its vast potential to generate jobs in finance, in academia, in journalism and the arts – and that’s just the ones held by George Osborne"

  • FF43 said:

    MikeL said:


    Indeed.

    I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

    And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

    I genuinely don't know. He clearly stands out from the other Conservatives, but whether in a good way for them, I am not sure. I think the Conservatives would probably be better jumping past the old guard to a new generation, which is presumably why Johnson wants to move fast.
    He will have improved his position with that speech and if he keeps on script he must be favourite to succeed TM but as we have no idea when that might be a new generation MP could come through.

    Nothing is certain anymore in politics including, as some on here think, Corbyn as PM
    I quite fancy seeing Boris as PM if only for the spectacle of the rude awakening he would get time and time again as he finds out the difference between fantasy and reality.

    Many foreign politicians seem to actively dislike him as Foreign Sec. I doubt that they would love him much more as PM.

    It would almost be worth watching Boris get elected, yank us straight to WTO and then run when the s**t hits the fan (just like the last time!)

    Boris would be the last Tory PM for a very long time. I could happily live with that, except for the fact I have three kids all starting to make their way in the world. The shit-storm Boris, followed by a very left wing Labour government armed with an ever-present Brexit excuse, would cause is not worth the personal pleasure I would get from seeing Boris fail utterly.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FF43 said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
    I can't remember anything about Corbyn's speech other than it was long, ranty and full of horrid lefty bollocks.

    Do I win a prize ?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
    The Tories can beat Corbyn

    All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


    BJ not the man.

    Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

    The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

    PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.
    Inequality is falling, isn't it?
    Relative to the 1%?
    Gini coefficient.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited October 2017

    MikeL said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

    Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.
    I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech
    Exactly.

    He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

    And he'll absolutely destroy him.

    I don't see how Boris would destroy Corbyn. Neither does detail, both are lazy and like to talk with big pictures. I doubt there is anything in Boris's armoury that would cause Corbyn a sleepless night. Boris is a polarising figure who has burned up a lot of the goodwill he had created as mayor of London.
    JRM would.

    His clear commmunication abilities are the reason why he is the strongest backbencher on the field.

    Gove would too, but I fear he is too unpopular.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Guido Fawkes ✔@GuidoFawkes
    WATCH Alan Duncan: Brexit is "Tantrum" Thrown By Working Class https://order-order.com/2017/10/03/alan-duncan-brexit-tantrum-thrown-working-class/

    twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/915239270293663744

    don't forget racists.
    No, racists were always going to vote for Brexit. What swung it, as Duncan pointed out was working class voters not seeing any Labour leadership campaigning for Remain and then being persuaded to vote against their own economic interest.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Duncan should be fired for that, IMO.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    MikeL said:

    The likes of Hunt, Rudd etc are all jolly good people but they won't be good enough in a GE campaign.

    The TV debate Rudd did is a perfect example. She did well. But she was nowhere near landing knockout blows on Corbyn.

    In order to win, Con has to have someone with 100% cut through who will destroy Corbyn on subjects like high taxes and exchange controls. Only Boris will do that.

    As for being a PM - well famously Cameron was lazy - Boris as PM will be the front man.

    Cameron was lazy is a bit of myth. All the civil servants have said he always did his red box on time etc etc etc, as did clegg, unlike workaholic Gordon who had massive backlogs of day to day government business. Cameron saw pm as akin to ceo of a big company and let others do the day to day management of their own departments.

    I actually don’t think that is a bad approach compared to tony, bad al and Gordon’s micromanaging.
    Wasn’t that Attlee’s strategy as well?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Scott_P said:
    Whoops. Does Boris have the balls to sack him?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Mortimer said:

    Duncan should be fired for that, IMO.

    Worth watching the whole clip - while his choice of words is impolitic in the extreme (Middle Class voters have 'concerns', working class voters have 'tantrums' - extremely poor choice of words) , I think his analysis is correct - including the fault of the Remain Campaign appearing to be 'The Dave & George Show' with no positive vision or 'cross party endeavour' (Yes Mr Corbyn, I'm looking at you...)
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Mortimer said:

    Duncan should be fired for that, IMO.

    Yep - seems like he has tired of working for Boris...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Mortimer said:

    Duncan should be fired for that, IMO.

    It would be ironic if this were the trigger for Theresa May's high-wire act to come crashing down.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sean_F said:
    Remainer snobbery strikes again.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    Duncan should be fired for that, IMO.

    Worth watching the whole clip - while his choice of words is impolitic in the extreme (Middle Class voters have 'concerns', working class voters have 'tantrums' - extremely poor choice of words) , I think his analysis is correct - including the fault of the Remain Campaign appearing to be 'The Dave & George Show' with no positive vision or 'cross party endeavour' (Yes Mr Corbyn, I'm looking at you...)
    Frankly I don't think it matters. The line is offensive. And wrong.

    And from a political POV, we lose without WC Leavers.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282
    MikeL said:

    The likes of Hunt, Rudd etc are all jolly good people but they won't be good enough in a GE campaign.

    The TV debate Rudd did is a perfect example. She did well. But she was nowhere near landing knockout blows on Corbyn.

    In order to win, Con has to have someone with 100% cut through who will destroy Corbyn on subjects like high taxes and exchange controls. Only Boris will do that.

    As for being a PM - well famously Cameron was lazy - Boris as PM will be the front man.

    Boris 2012, maybe. Boris post-Brexit and leadership nonsense? Not a hope. He's damaged goods among the younger, liberal voters who the Tories need to win back. In 2012 he was good old Boris - now he's seen as the worst Brexiteer of all, because it has looked like he pursued it purely to further his own ends. He's now the unacceptable face of the Tory party, the posh boy playing at politics with no thought for the consequences. And that was his key constituency - liberal leaning voters put off by Tory stiffness.

    I'm also not so sure he'd savage Corbyn in debates. Corbyn is of course a plodder but is surprisingly effective thanks to his ability to make even silly things sound thoroughly reasonable. I can imagine Boris repeating the Tories mistake of June and trying to 'savage' Corbyn the man while he does his blessed are the meek act. Davidson could break through it by seeming reasonable, but Boris would have to show off like he's in the Oxford Union - not a good look.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    An unfortunate tweet when you don't have the first part.
    https://twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/915225124579749888
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Duncan should be fired for that, IMO.

    Worth watching the whole clip - while his choice of words is impolitic in the extreme (Middle Class voters have 'concerns', working class voters have 'tantrums' - extremely poor choice of words) , I think his analysis is correct - including the fault of the Remain Campaign appearing to be 'The Dave & George Show' with no positive vision or 'cross party endeavour' (Yes Mr Corbyn, I'm looking at you...)
    Frankly I don't think it matters. The line is offensive. And wrong.
    I agree the line is extremely offensive - harks back to the old 'prerogative of the harlot' 'there goes the tart's vote....'
  • Royal Mail workers have voted in favour of holding a ballot for strike action in a row over pensions and pay.

    The Communication Workers Union said 73.7% of its 110,000 members turned out to vote with 89% backing a walkout.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited October 2017
    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Sorry, but Ministers in the Foreign Office and Intl Trade departments need to be unrelentingly positive about Brexit and the opportunities it brings - having an internal opposition running around the world unable to keep their mouths shut looks f***ing terrible is not particularly helpful for Britain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Royal Mail workers have voted in favour of holding a ballot for strike action in a row over pensions and pay.

    The Communication Workers Union said 73.7% of its 110,000 members turned out to vote with 89% backing a walkout.

    They have to vote about having votes now? :p
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    MikeL said:


    As for being a PM - well famously Cameron was lazy

    I genuinely don't know, but is there anything credible to back that up? It's true I've heard it, but I don't know whether the sources are reliable or not.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    Mortimer said:

    Duncan should be fired for that, IMO.

    It would be ironic if this were the trigger for Theresa May's high-wire act to come crashing down.
    Butterfly wings?
  • Mortimer said:

    MikeL said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

    Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.
    I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech
    Exactly.

    He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

    And he'll absolutely destroy him.

    I don't see how Boris would destroy Corbyn. Neither does detail, both are lazy and like to talk with big pictures. I doubt there is anything in Boris's armoury that would cause Corbyn a sleepless night. Boris is a polarising figure who has burned up a lot of the goodwill he had created as mayor of London.
    JRM would.

    His clear commmunication abilities are the reason why he is the strongest backbencher on the field.

    Gove would too, but I fear he is too unpopular.

    Again, I don't see a social conservative with very right wing economic views clawing back support among working voters who are seeing their living standards and public services squeezed. Speeches citing Agincourt and Crecy win applause at Tory conferences. I am not sure they seem particularly relevant to people in the real world.

    Generally, rich, privileged politicians telling everyone to be positive and to stop moaning will be OK when the economy is doing well and people are feeling hood about the future. They are less compelling when the storm clouds are gathering.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Probably bottling it - he did when Cameron went, and the pressure is on again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    rkrkrk said:

    Mortimer said:

    Duncan should be fired for that, IMO.

    Yep - seems like he has tired of working for Boris...
    Boris was calling him Mount Rushmore an hour ago!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    By the by, May's comments that she does not want 'Yes men' in her Cabinet has to rank as one of the more unbelievable political statements in recent times. If PM's didn't want or demand 'yes men' why is it they always seem to end up surrounded by them and falling out with those who aren't?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Sean_F said:

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.
    The Tories can beat Corbyn

    All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


    BJ not the man.

    Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

    The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

    PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.
    Inequality is falling, isn't it?
    Relative to the 1%?
    FTSE 100 Directors vs the disabled since 2010?

    I think everyone knows the answer
    Both groups are outliers.
    Its also an obvious example of where the Tories stick up for the wrong sort of Capitalism.

    As I say Compassionate Capitalism trumps Socialism and is IMO the only way to beat Corbyn
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kle4 said:

    By the by, May's comments that she does not want 'Yes men' in her Cabinet has to rank as one of the more unbelievable political statements in recent times. If PM's didn't want or demand 'yes men' why is it they always seem to end up surrounded by them and falling out with those who aren't?

    It’s fine to say you don’t want to be surrounded by fawning yes men, but the arguments should be had behind closed doors and a united front presented on the agreed position - not done through the press.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited October 2017
    It looks to me very much as though the net effect of BoJo's interventions over the past couple of weeks has been to damage the Conservative Party and the Brexit negotiations, without furthering his leadership chances.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Boris would be the last Tory PM for a very long time. I could happily live with that, except for the fact I have three kids all starting to make their way in the world. The shit-storm Boris, followed by a very left wing Labour government armed with an ever-present Brexit excuse, would cause is not worth the personal pleasure I would get from seeing Boris fail utterly.

    I am in a similar position with kids in their early 20s.

    I wonder if there is a word somewhere in some language that means "The foregoing of schadenfreude pleasures for the sake of your kids"?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

    Exactly.

    Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.
    I want to see Rory Stewart in the Cabinet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    New thread.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    NEW THREAD
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    MikeL said:

    Completely disjointed no theme.

    This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

    Worried
    You should be!!
    Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election
    Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

    Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.
    I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech
    Exactly.

    He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

    And he'll absolutely destroy him.
    Absolutely.....
    https://youtu.be/c6dFsbe-7so
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    stevef said:

    Corbyn's favourite status as the next PM seems to be based on the assumption that May will fight the next election -probably in 2022.

    There is no basis for the assumption that Corbyn will be the next -or next next PM.

    Hugh Gaitskell was favourite to be the next PM in 1956, post Suez, three years before landslide defeat at the hands of Harold Macmillan in 1959.

    Neil Kinnock was the favourite to be next PM in 1990 at the height of the Poll tax before defeat at the hands of John Major in 1992.

    Beware the poison chalice of being "favourite".

    Mortimer said:

    3 day week power cuts in 70s were apparently Labours fault according to BJ

    Not heard of the Unions, mate? Thought your lot were pro them....
    Even so, the 3 day week was a transparent gimmick to set the agenda that backfired.
This discussion has been closed.