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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » To add to the febrile political mix – next week’s boundary cha

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  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Off topic: Do we really need 24/7 coverage of the Hollywood Groper?

    Why is it such a big thing when a man who boasts that his celebrity power permits him to grab women by the pussy is elected as President?
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    There was generalised popular discontent because of immigration and the aftermath of the financial crisis. It was channelled into the EU issue by fanatical nationalists who would have used any excuse they could find to undermine our membership of the EU.

    That may be so, but @anothernick's bald rewrite of history is utterly absurd. For example, on the Lisbon Treaty, an ICM poll of August 2007 (well before the financial crisis, of course) had 82% of voters wanting a referendum on the treaty. No great popular demand, obviously, just an internal Conservative Party thing!
    A referendum in which about 5% of the electorate would have understood what they were voting for or against.
    Much like a general election, then.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    The problem with the new parliamentary boundaries is not so much te reduction of 50 seats but having to have constituency electorates within plus or minus 5% of the average instead of plus or minus 10%. Without flexibility this causes constituencies to be have unnatural boundaries in many cases.

    Would a revamp of the boundaries on a 650 total pass in the house ?
    Would it be that simple? The reduction to 600 was contained in the Constituencies Act 2011, so its a fair assumption that primary legislation would be required to pass both houses in the usual manner, in order to change it back.
    But that could be done relatively easily with cross-Party support. No new legislation needed. Repeal the Act, re-instate the old rules.
    Repealing the act requires legislation. Wouldn’t it also have to redefine the parameters of the boundaries?
    Sorry, been making tea. Yes, of course you are right. Meant no need to WRITE new legislation. Simply replace it with the previous criteria.
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    Scott_P said:

    £350m a week...

    twitter.com/iandunt/status/918501014776541184

    We did this last week. A huge amount of it based on no facts, simply subjective interpretations of possible scenarios, much of which is utter bollocks e.g. ability for trained doctors and nurses from the EU to work in the UK. Regardless of soft, hard, mr whippy, or no deal Brexit, properly trained doctors and nurses will pass any points based system (as they do in pretty much every other western country).
    Not really. The reasons that this matters are:

    1) There are significant staff shortages extant., for example my Trust is short 500 nurses, 10% of posts, more so in some critical areas.

    2) Getting visas is currently laborious and slow, applying these to EU workers means short term vacancies cannot be filled.

    3) Visas are only part of the issue. Currently EEA qualifications are automatically recognised, so a Specialist in the EEA does not need to apply to the GMC to be recognised here. Recognition is once again slow and expensive. DD ruled out continuing recognition today.

    4) The depreciation of Sterling means that pay is down for EU workers, even before salary cap etc.

    5) The improving EU economy makes for better opportunities elsewhere.

    6) The whole Brexit atmosphere makes EU citizens feel less welcome (could they bring family over later?)

    The upshot is that Brexit will add significantly to the recruitment and retention crisis in British health care. The Tories promise much but fail to deliver. They promised 5000 extra GPs, but actually the number appears to be shrinking:

    http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/your-practice/practice-topics/employment/gp-workforce-declines-by-over-400-in-just-three-months/20034139.article

    Try training your staff and doing a bit of manpower planning

    everybody else does

    Privatise the lot, eh!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105

    There was generalised popular discontent because of immigration and the aftermath of the financial crisis. It was channelled into the EU issue by fanatical nationalists who would have used any excuse they could find to undermine our membership of the EU.

    That may be so, but @anothernick's bald rewrite of history is utterly absurd. For example, on the Lisbon Treaty, an ICM poll of August 2007 (well before the financial crisis, of course) had 82% of voters wanting a referendum on the treaty. No great popular demand, obviously, just an internal Conservative Party thing!
    A referendum in which about 5% of the electorate would have understood what they were voting for or against.
    Great work, assuming you are one of an exclusive elite that knows what the fuck is going on.

    You're really helping people understand you.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    There was generalised popular discontent because of immigration and the aftermath of the financial crisis. It was channelled into the EU issue by fanatical nationalists who would have used any excuse they could find to undermine our membership of the EU.

    That may be so, but @anothernick's bald rewrite of history is utterly absurd. For example, on the Lisbon Treaty, an ICM poll of August 2007 (well before the financial crisis, of course) had 82% of voters wanting a referendum on the treaty. No great popular demand, obviously, just an internal Conservative Party thing!
    A referendum in which about 5% of the electorate would have understood what they were voting for or against.
    Great work, assuming you are one of an exclusive elite that knows what the fuck is going on.

    You're really helping people understand you.
    Well yes, that’s why we elect an elite (MPs) to make decisions rather than having silly referendums.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850



    Much like a general election, then.

    I don't recall the Government of the day considering referenda on the Single European Act, Maastricht or EU Enlargement which occurred in other countries.



  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    nielh said:

    Scott_P said:

    £350m a week...

    twitter.com/iandunt/status/918501014776541184

    We did this last week. A huge amount of it based on no facts, simply subjective interpretations of possible scenarios, much of which is utter bollocks e.g. ability for trained doctors and nurses from the EU to work in the UK. Regardless of soft, hard, mr whippy, or no deal Brexit, properly trained doctors and nurses will pass any points based system (as they do in pretty much every other western country).
    Not really. The reasons that this matters are:

    1) There are significant staff shortages extant., for example my Trust is short 500 nurses, 10% of posts, more so in some critical areas.

    2) Getting visas is currently laborious and slow, applying these to EU workers means short term vacancies cannot be filled.

    3) Visas are only part of the issue. Currently EEA qualifications are automatically recognised, so a Specialist in the EEA does not need to apply to the GMC to be recognised here. Recognition is once again slow and expensive. DD ruled out continuing recognition today.

    4) The depreciation of Sterling means that pay is down for EU workers, even before salary cap etc.

    5) The improving EU economy makes for better opportunities elsewhere.

    6) The whole Brexit atmosphere makes EU citizens feel less welcome (could they bring family over later?)

    The upshot is that Brexit will add significantly to the recruitment and retention crisis in British health care. The Tories promise much but fail to deliver. They promised 5000 extra GPs, but actually the number appears to be shrinking:

    http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/your-practice/practice-topics/employment/gp-workforce-declines-by-over-400-in-just-three-months/20034139.article

    Try training your staff and doing a bit of manpower planning

    everybody else does

    Privatise the lot, eh!
    manpower planning is not a public\ private issue
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105

    Off topic: Do we really need 24/7 coverage of the Hollywood Groper?

    If you think the media wasn't go to have its own wank in a plantpot over this story, you have no idea of the clout this guy had. He basically decided who would get Oscars, with his financing (or not) of their campaigns. He was a much feared mogul - and now he's on the way down, everybody wants a piece of it.

    This one will run and run.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541
    Getting away from the tedious eurargument for a moment, if this technology works out, 100% renewable energy without subsidy is a real prospect..

    http://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(17)30032-6
    Summary
    The intermittency of renewable electricity generation has created a pressing global need for low-cost, highly scalable energy storage. Although pumped hydroelectric storage (PHS) and underground compressed air energy storage (CAES) have the lowest costs today (∼US$100/kWh installed cost), each faces geographical and environmental constraints that may limit further deployment. Here, we demonstrate an ambient-temperature aqueous rechargeable flow battery that uses low-cost polysulfide anolytes in conjunction with lithium or sodium counter-ions, and an air- or oxygen-breathing cathode. The solution energy density, at 30–145 Wh/L depending on concentration and sulfur speciation range, exceeds current solution-based flow batteries, and the cost of active materials per stored energy is exceptionally low, ∼US$1/kWh when using sodium polysulfide. The projected storage economics parallel those for PHS and CAES but can be realized at higher energy density and with minimal locational constraints….
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,937
    edited October 2017

    There was generalised popular discontent because of immigration and the aftermath of the financial crisis. It was channelled into the EU issue by fanatical nationalists who would have used any excuse they could find to undermine our membership of the EU.

    That may be so, but @anothernick's bald rewrite of history is utterly absurd. For example, on the Lisbon Treaty, an ICM poll of August 2007 (well before the financial crisis, of course) had 82% of voters wanting a referendum on the treaty. No great popular demand, obviously, just an internal Conservative Party thing!
    A referendum in which about 5% of the electorate would have understood what they were voting for or against.
    Great work, assuming you are one of an exclusive elite that knows what the fuck is going on.

    You're really helping people understand you.
    Well yes, that’s why we elect an elite (MPs) to make decisions rather than having silly referendums.
    Just a shame they are so fecking useless then isn't it.

    By the way, if we are apparently too dumb to make decisions through referendums then why are we bright enough to pick an MP to make those decisions on our behalf? It is a stupid and fatuous claim.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    •111,000 Posties
    •73.7% Turnout
    •89% Vote to Strike
    •72,873 v 8,954

    And yet today Posties were banned by the law from taking strike action

    Tory Britain
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    glw said:

    RobD said:

    Not sure he’s talking about the placebo effect......

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/10038528258

    Just as long as they don’t have “chemicals”

    Water is indeed natural. What an idiot!
    The one good thing about homeopathy is that it makes it dead easy to figure out if someone is a fool.
    You say that, but my homeopathic cure for gullibility is a winner.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Scott_P said:

    £350m a week...

    twitter.com/iandunt/status/918501014776541184

    We did this last week. A huge amount of it based on no facts, simply subjective interpretations of possible scenarios, much of which is utter bollocks e.g. ability for trained doctors and nurses from the EU to work in the UK. Regardless of soft, hard, mr whippy, or no deal Brexit, properly trained doctors and nurses will pass any points based system (as they do in pretty much every other western country).
    Not really. The reasons that this matters are:

    1) There are significant staff shortages extant., for example my Trust is short 500 nurses, 10% of posts, more so in some critical areas.

    2) Getting visas is currently laborious and slow, applying these to EU workers means short term vacancies cannot be filled.

    3) Visas are only part of the issue. Currently EEA qualifications are automatically recognised, so a Specialist in the EEA does not need to apply to the GMC to be recognised here. Recognition is once again slow and expensive. DD ruled out continuing recognition today.

    4) The depreciation of Sterling means that pay is down for EU workers, even before salary cap etc.

    5) The improving EU economy makes for better opportunities elsewhere.

    6) The whole Brexit atmosphere makes EU citizens feel less welcome (could they bring family over later?)

    The upshot is that Brexit will add significantly to the recruitment and retention crisis in British health care. The Tories promise much but fail to deliver. They promised 5000 extra GPs, but actually the number appears to be shrinking:

    http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/your-practice/practice-topics/employment/gp-workforce-declines-by-over-400-in-just-three-months/20034139.article

    Try training your staff and doing a bit of manpower planning

    everybody else does

    Training numbers are not under my control, they are set by the DoH.
    all you prove is the NHS is run by fuckwits
    Certainly at national level it is, but both undergraduate and postgraduate training numbers are regulated by the DoH rather than the NHS. Ditto for nursing.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:


    13 October 2016 - 1.2251
    12 October 2017 - 1.3250

    Admittedly @DavidL is somewhat fortunate that precisely one year ago was close to the bottom

    23rd June 2016 - 1.4904

    The devaluation caused by Brexit is not well out of the system by now
    It's a one year impact on inflation (albeit with a slight lag as legacy contracts roll off).

    "Well out" is probably an exaggeration, but it is working its way through
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,603

    Off topic: Do we really need 24/7 coverage of the Hollywood Groper?

    If you think the media wasn't go to have its own wank in a plantpot over this story, you have no idea of the clout this guy had. He basically decided who would get Oscars, with his financing (or not) of their campaigns. He was a much feared mogul - and now he's on the way down, everybody wants a piece of it.

    This one will run and run.
    As someone who thinks the Oscars are the equivalent of the Sock Salesperson of the Year Awards, I'm clearly out of touch with this crap.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541

    Off topic: Do we really need 24/7 coverage of the Hollywood Groper?

    If you think the media wasn't go to have its own wank in a plantpot over this story, you have no idea of the clout this guy had. He basically decided who would get Oscars, with his financing (or not) of their campaigns. He was a much feared mogul - and now he's on the way down, everybody wants a piece of it.

    This one will run and run.
    Meanwhile a Warner/DC franchise might be in trouble -
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/2017/10/12/ben-affleck-dubbed-buttman-groping-allegations-emerge/

    We could need a new name for the Justice League...
  • Options

    •111,000 Posties
    •73.7% Turnout
    •89% Vote to Strike
    •72,873 v 8,954

    And yet today Posties were banned by the law from taking strike action

    Tory Britain

    You missed out a bit:

    Mr Justice Supperstone, who granted the injunction, said: “I consider the strike call to be unlawful and the defendant is obliged to withdraw its strike call until the external mediation process has been exhausted.

    Corbyn's Labour: Supporting law-breaking, preferring strikes to mediation, wanting to damage consumers.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    •111,000 Posties
    •73.7% Turnout
    •89% Vote to Strike
    •72,873 v 8,954

    And yet today Posties were banned by the law from taking strike action

    Tory Britain

    You missed out a bit:

    Mr Justice Supperstone, who granted the injunction, said: “I consider the strike call to be unlawful and the defendant is obliged to withdraw its strike call until the external mediation process has been exhausted.

    Corbyn's Labour: Supporting law-breaking, preferring strikes to mediation, wanting to damage consumers.
    How would we have noticed if a strike had taken place?
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    Nigelb said:

    Off topic: Do we really need 24/7 coverage of the Hollywood Groper?

    If you think the media wasn't go to have its own wank in a plantpot over this story, you have no idea of the clout this guy had. He basically decided who would get Oscars, with his financing (or not) of their campaigns. He was a much feared mogul - and now he's on the way down, everybody wants a piece of it.

    This one will run and run.
    Meanwhile a Warner/DC franchise might be in trouble -
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/2017/10/12/ben-affleck-dubbed-buttman-groping-allegations-emerge/

    We could need a new name for the Justice League...
    Couldn't happen to a nicer chap. His full on assault of Bill Maher and Sam Harris, labelling them racist, was disgusting.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited October 2017

    How would we have noticed if a strike had taken place?

    Good point, but, in event of a Corbyn government, we'd certainly the public transport, refuse collection, and NHS strikes once Corbynomics gets into its stride.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    •111,000 Posties
    •73.7% Turnout
    •89% Vote to Strike
    •72,873 v 8,954

    And yet today Posties were banned by the law from taking strike action

    Tory Britain

    Where legal contracts are binding and can't be ignored on a whim.

    I'm glad about that.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    GIN1138 said:

    You can't blame the Brexiteers for the EU being irrational?
    Demand to leave union as union is acting irrationally. Act surprised when union acts irrationally in exit negotiations.

    Does that about sums it up?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    Well there’s a surprise

    British negotiators are frustrated the EU has in effect “banked” the concessions made by Theresa May in Florence last month. In a set-piece speech, the UK prime minister promised to honour the financial commitments the country has made as a member and remain in the bloc in all but name until 2021.

    London is particularly upset that the EU is in effect calling for a second big set of concessions to close a deal — which may be impossible given political constraints in Westminster.


    https://amp.ft.com/content/ff329274-af42-11e7-beba-5521c713abf4

  • Options

    Well there’s a surprise

    British negotiators are frustrated the EU has in effect “banked” the concessions made by Theresa May in Florence last month. In a set-piece speech, the UK prime minister promised to honour the financial commitments the country has made as a member and remain in the bloc in all but name until 2021.

    London is particularly upset that the EU is in effect calling for a second big set of concessions to close a deal — which may be impossible given political constraints in Westminster.


    https://amp.ft.com/content/ff329274-af42-11e7-beba-5521c713abf4


    It's a negotiation.

    The 27 EU countries will want to use leverage to get as much money out of us as possible.

    We should have started by assuming we leave under WTO terms and pay the EU nothing - and negotiated from there.
This discussion has been closed.