My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was
“They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.
The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.
Agreed.
When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess, we're the whack job ideologues who'll get you in to an even bigger one"
cant see that working myself
The second part will convince Brexit headbangers who believe that only their massively damaging ideology should be tested to destruction. Others will work simply on the basis of time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people will be worried about housing, cost of living, NHS and all the other things ordinary people worry about. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was
“They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.
The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.
Agreed.
When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
At the next election the public is likely to be strongly motivated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" If they decide that the answer is no, the Conservatives are sunk without trace.
You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess, we're the whack job ideologues who'll get you in to an even bigger one"
cant see that working myself
The second part will convince Brexit headbangers who believe that only their massively damaging ideology should be tested to destruction. Others will work simply on the basis of time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people will be worried about housing, cost of living, NHS and all the other things ordinary people worry about. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next election is likely to be dominated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
So a dull, inept, unimaginative budget should be praised ?
Depends how you define 'failure'. For most Leave voters failure would be leaving free movement uncontrolled and failing to restore sovereignty,
And how would Leave voters define success? It certainly doesn't match anything they're going to get.
No ECJ interference, £10Bn pa to spend how we see fit, ability to set trade deals with forward thinking nations who reside outside the statist swamp of the EU.
Only 89 per cent of Tories who supported the party at the general election would vote the same way tomorrow
In the previous poll it was also “only” 89% while soaraway Labour are on 92%....
Spinning a “no movement” poll, despite the “most disastrous conference speech of all time
Of those who voted Tory in June, 75 per cent would pick Mrs May, while 3 per cent prefer Mr Corbyn and 23 per cent say they do not know.
In the previous poll (this one isn’t up yet) May was on 81 while Corbyn - among Labour 2017 voters was on 68. Yes May’s rating has taken a (temporary?) knock, but at the end of the day overall it’s still a “no change” poll..
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
This is what puzzles me, you use the expression "financial sanity", I've no idea what that means. As a nation and as individuals (not you, you're very well paid) we're drowning in debt and interest rates are about to rise.
We're about to enter a period of financial insanity, because once every decade or so there is a crash. Its always happened and has f**k all to do with Brexit or the non-entity Hammond.
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
So a dull, inept, unimaginative budget should be praised ?
That's what his last one was. He's 4th rate.
Budgets should be dull. Showmanship is not the point, balancing the books is.
Hammond is the only cabinet member that I see anything positive about.
He is the sober designated driver in a roomful of drunks.
Only 89 per cent of Tories who supported the party at the general election would vote the same way tomorrow
In the previous poll it was also “only” 89% while soaraway Labour are on 92%....
Spinning a “no movement” poll, despite the “most disastrous conference speech of all time
Of those who voted Tory in June, 75 per cent would pick Mrs May, while 3 per cent prefer Mr Corbyn and 23 per cent say they do not know.
In the previous poll (this one isn’t up yet) May was on 81 while Corbyn - among Labour 2017 voters was on 68. Yes May’s rating has taken a (temporary?) knock, but at the end of the day overall it’s still a “no change” poll..
Yes, the Titanic looks much better at this angle, and it was a truly terrible night for the iceberg.
My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was
“They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.
The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.
Agreed.
When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
trace.
You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess, we're the whack job ideologues who'll get you in to an even bigger one"
cant see that working myself
The second part will convince Brexit headbangers who believe simply on the basis of time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people will be worried about housing, cost of living, NHS and all the other things ordinary people worry about. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next election is likely to be dominated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a mad call, there are so many other things which can change. Basing everything on the Brexit prism is myopic. It's simply the product of a mindset that cant imagine a different future.
While it's possible that Brexit will destroy the Tory party, there's one thing that must give them hope now: Corbyn's Labour being seen as a credible potential government.
I really don't believe, if it came down to May v Corbyn with Corbyn actually being a credible candidate (because he wasn't seen as that before), that Labour would increase their vote share from last time. In fact, I think it would decrease.
People like the idea of socialism, so long as its implemented by technocrat rather than an ideologue.
2 points: first, there may be a tiny bit of wriggle room in the fact that the final word in the first sentence of 1.2 is "intention" not "decision". "We are going to see Bladerunner tomorrow night because that is what we decided yesterday" is a valid card to play in an argument; "We are going to see Bladerunner tomorrow night because that is what we intended yesterday" is not, because it invites the response "That is interesting, but what are our intentions now?"
Point 2 for English lawyers getting twitchy about evidence from the draftsman of the interpretation of his wording (inadmissible in England): the EU is a foreign country, they do things differently there, and as I understand it you are allowed to look at the travaux preparatoires as evidence of the intention of the law.
If the EU had thought about this issue, I cannot believe they would leave open any option that allowed the putative Leaving Party to have say 23 months of negotiation post-Article 50 Notice, then say "Nah mate - your offers not good enough. We withdraw our Notice. We'll come back in for a couple more years, be bloody minded, cause endless trouble, not pay our contributions - then serve it again. Cheerio..." I cannot believe that if they had considered the point, the 27 would allow the 1 that advantage.
Obviously, parties to a contract/convention can agree to do whatever they like by mutual agreement. It's just hard to envisage how that mutual alignment could ever come about. The status quo ante, before serving that Article 50 Notice, just won't ever be on offer. The EU won't allow us to come back and do this all over again. Accepting the revocation of Article 50 would come with strings. Strings no UK would be able to accept without at least another Referendum. "Do you agree to return to the EU subject to the UK consenting to join the Euro, the European Army, unified European tax rates, calling your first-born Pierre....." (continue ad nauseum).
I do wonder whether in light of Brexit, the next treaty change the EU has to consider will also replace Articles 49 and 50 with the words "Members shall never, ever leave......"
My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was
“They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.
The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.
Agreed.
When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
trace.
You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess, we're the whack job ideologues who'll get you in to an even bigger one"
cant see that working myself
The second part will convince Brexit headbangers who believe simply on the basis of time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people will be worried about housing, cost of living, NHS and all the other things ordinary people worry about. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next election is likely to be dominated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a mad call, there are so many other things which can change. Basing everything on the Brexit prism is myopic. It's simply the product of a mindset that cant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everything else, it will be a disaster and the tories will get punished. If that means we get Corbyn it will have been a double whammy.
Depends how you define 'failure'. For most Leave voters failure would be leaving free movement uncontrolled and failing to restore sovereignty,
And how would Leave voters define success? It certainly doesn't match anything they're going to get.
No ECJ interference, £10Bn pa to spend how we see fit, ability to set trade deals with forward thinking nations who reside outside the statist swamp of the EU.
"The statist swamp"
Wow I wish I'd thought of that. This is what Remainers will never get regardless of how much they bleat and whine and call us xenophobic Little Englanders. We're sick of idiots telling us how to live our lives.
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
So a dull, inept, unimaginative budget should be praised ?
That's what his last one was. He's 4th rate.
Budgets should be dull. Showmanship is not the point, balancing the books is.
Hammond is the only cabinet member that I see anything positive about.
He is the sober designated driver in a roomful of drunks.
He screwed up the self employed taxes back in April - it was an absolute farce.
Mr. Mark, they won't do that. But they might make it even harder to leave. However, I suspect they won't bother. Most countries in the EU are also in the single currency, which already greatly increases the challenge of leaving.
I don't have the legal qualifications to assess the potential for unilateral revocation. But I think the issue is overwhelmingly political. If Britain said "Er, on second thoughts, forget it", there would certainly be a legal challenge, and substantial opposition to carrying on with business as usual. On the other hand, if Britain and the EU agreed that Brexit was presenting impossible difficulties and should be scrapped, I think the EU27 would definitely be up for it. It would, however, require a significant change to the British Government to make it plausible - either a Labour government (who might or might not wish to in practice, but quite possibly assuming the sort of meltdown we're talking about) or some sort of cross-party coalition.
Yes, a very good article by lawyer Alastair and very good follow up by politician Nick.
The ECJ is a curious (to this Brit, anyway) mixture of politics and law, often interpreting deliberately loose wording in the way that’s most politically expedient at the time. I’m sure another EU lawyer could provide an equally eloquently well-argued post as Alastair, yet reach the opposite conclusion.
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
So a dull, inept, unimaginative budget should be praised ?
That's what his last one was. He's 4th rate.
Budgets should be dull. Showmanship is not the point, balancing the books is.
Hammond is the only cabinet member that I see anything positive about.
He is the sober designated driver in a roomful of drunks.
He screwed up the self employed taxes back in April - it was an absolute farce.
He may be sober but he can't drive.
Maybe when the diaries finally get published, we will know whether that was just the Chancellor's cock-up, or whether it was a gamble taken by the PM, with a fall-back of blaming Hammond if it went badly. Either way, it seems to have poisoned the well and allowed May's Minions to sideline the Chancellor in the election campaign, meaning Labours fantasy Manifesto was allowed a free run to the try line, when it should have been spear-tackled.
My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was
“They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.
The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.
Agreed.
When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
trace.
You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess, we're the whack job ideologues who'll get you in to an even bigger one"
cant see that working myself
The second part will convince Brexit headbangers who believe simply on the basis of time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people will be worried about housing, cost of living, NHS and all the other things ordinary people worry about. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next election is likely to be dominated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a mad call, there are so many other things which can change. Basing everything on the Brexit prism is myopic. It's simply the product of a mindset that cant imagine a different future.
Indeed.
Some remainers are incandescent; but I remember people being incandescent about fuel prices in the late 90s, about BSE and foot and mouth. About Iraq, even. Not one of them influenced elections in any meaningful ways.
Several Remainers here suggest that Leavers need to own the decision. The reality is that we are. But we're also recognising that time didn't stop on 23rd June 2016. Accepting the result and its implementation are the necessary precursors to moving on. Remainers risk the TONY Benn syndrome of refighting the battles of the 70s in the 80s and 90s.
Yes but she leads comfortably with Leave voters who comprise 52% of the electorate and most recent pills have shown UKIP on double their June voteshare showing part of the problem is she is arguably not pro Brexit enough now for some voters
That would be less of a problem if the project of leaving the EU were on solid foundations. Instead the Tories are just consolidating the voters who are going to be most disappointed, no matter what happens. It's a dire electoral position to be in.
If the Tories abandoned Leave voters they may not even come second next time let alone first but could be overtaken by UKIP
You appear to make sweeping assertions based on your opinion. What is the track record of your opinion being proved correct?
Depends how you define 'failure'. For most Leave voters failure would be leaving free movement uncontrolled and failing to restore sovereignty,
And how would Leave voters define success? It certainly doesn't match anything they're going to get.
No ECJ interference, £10Bn pa to spend how we see fit, ability to set trade deals with forward thinking nations who reside outside the statist swamp of the EU.
"The statist swamp"
Wow I wish I'd thought of that. This is what Remainers will never get regardless of how much they bleat and whine and call us xenophobic Little Englanders. We're sick of idiots telling us how to live our lives.
Funny how the people who say things like that are almost always the ones who want to tell me that I shouldn't be able to marry my partner.
My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was
“They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.
The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.
Agreed.
When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
trace.
You suggest result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a mad call, there are so many other things which can change. Basing everything on the Brexit prism is myopic. It's simply the product of a mindset that cant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everything else, it will be a disaster and the tories will get punished. If that means we get Corbyn it will have been a double whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ? Them : well no, don't be stupid Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo Them: well no Me : Are we less stable than Spain ? Them: no have you see Catalonia Me: Italy ? Them: laughter Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ? Them: well France has always been a mess Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak Them: yeah suppose so
Only 89 per cent of Tories who supported the party at the general election would vote the same way tomorrow
In the previous poll it was also “only” 89% while soaraway Labour are on 92%....
Spinning a “no movement” poll, despite the “most disastrous conference speech of all time
Of those who voted Tory in June, 75 per cent would pick Mrs May, while 3 per cent prefer Mr Corbyn and 23 per cent say they do not know.
In the previous poll (this one isn’t up yet) May was on 81 while Corbyn - among Labour 2017 voters was on 68. Yes May’s rating has taken a (temporary?) knock, but at the end of the day overall it’s still a “no change” poll..
Yes, the Titanic looks much better at this angle, and it was a truly terrible night for the iceberg.
But reality - the physics of heat - tell us the iceberg is doomed.
The Titanic will still be around a hundred year later. Admittedly, on the seabed...
Depends how you define 'failure'. For most Leave voters failure would be leaving free movement uncontrolled and failing to restore sovereignty,
And how would Leave voters define success? It certainly doesn't match anything they're going to get.
No ECJ interference, £10Bn pa to spend how we see fit, ability to set trade deals with forward thinking nations who reside outside the statist swamp of the EU.
"The statist swamp"
Wow I wish I'd thought of that. This is what Remainers will never get regardless of how much they bleat and whine and call us xenophobic Little Englanders. We're sick of idiots telling us how to live our lives.
Funny how the people who say things like that are almost always the ones who want to tell me that I shouldn't be able to marry my partner.
Oh I carelessly omitted the homophobic bit.
For the record, who on here (after all its the most important place on earth) gives a toss about your personal life?
I don't, marry who you like mate, as long as they consent.
2 points: first, there may be a tiny bit of wriggle room in the fact that the final word in the first sentence of 1.2 is "intention" not "decision". "We are going to see Bladerunner tomorrow night because that is what we decided yesterday" is a valid card to play in an argument; "We are going to see Bladerunner tomorrow night because that is what we intended yesterday" is not, because it invites the response "That is interesting, but what are our intentions now?"
Point 2 for English lawyers getting twitchy about evidence from the draftsman of the interpretation of his wording (inadmissible in England): the EU is a foreign country, they do things differently there, and as I understand it you are allowed to look at the travaux preparatoires as evidence of the intention of the law.
If the EU had thought about this issue, I cannot believe they would leave open any option that allowed the putative Leaving Party to have say 23 months of negotiation post-Article 50 Notice, then say "Nah mate - your offers not good enough. We withdraw our Notice. We'll come back in for a couple more years, be bloody minded, cause endless trouble, not pay our contributions - then serve it again. Cheerio..." I cannot believe that if they had considered the point, the 27 would allow the 1 that advantage.
Obviously, parties to a contract/convention can agree to do whatever they like by mutual agreement. It's just hard to envisage how that mutual alignment could ever come about. The status quo ante, before serving that Article 50 Notice, just won't ever be on offer. The EU won't allow us to come back and do this all over again. Accepting the revocation of Article 50 would come with strings. Strings no UK would be able to accept without at least another Referendum. "Do you agree to return to the EU subject to the UK consenting to join the Euro, the European Army, unified European tax rates, calling your first-born Pierre....." (continue ad nauseum).
I do wonder whether in light of Brexit, the next treaty change the EU has to consider will also replace Articles 49 and 50 with the words "Members shall never, ever leave......"
It was implicit in previous treaties that that was the case, and according to the other draftsman (other than Kerr - Italian guy I think) Art 50 was a dummy; it was there specifically so that if UK leavers were to say "And the worst thing is, there is no way out" the Remainers could reply "wrong - see Art 50). So you can see why its actual effect might not have been thought through in detail.
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
Hammond should recite out all of the 235 months the UK has had a continuous trade deficit.
Then point out that for all those 235 months and more the UK has also had a continuous tourism deficit. Compare this record to those of other countries and say this is the failure of Osbrown economics and that the UK now has live within its means.
Yes but she leads comfortably with Leave voters who comprise 52% of the electorate and most recent pills have shown UKIP on double their June voteshare showing part of the problem is she is arguably not pro Brexit enough now for some voters
That would be less of a problem if the project of leaving the EU were on solid foundations. Instead the Tories are just consolidating the voters who are going to be most disappointed, no matter what happens. It's a dire electoral position to be in.
If the Tories abandoned Leave voters they may not even come second next time let alone first but could be overtaken by UKIP
You appear to make sweeping assertions based on your opinion. What is the track record of your opinion being proved correct?
It is a statement of the obvious, most Tory voters are Leave voters if they abandon them they risk going the way of the Canadian Progressive Conservatives.
My track record is mixed I predicted, Obama would be re elected, Trudeau would win in 2015 and Cameron would win most seats and May a majority but also that Remain would win, Le Pen could get 40% and Hillary would win
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side, have you not noticed that it's not Remain supporters but your fellow headbangers who are getting steadily angrier at present? They've moved on from Remoaners to demanding loyalty tests of Conservative politicians who previously supported Remain and haven't recanted to their sufficient satisfaction yet, to accusing a current serving Cabinet minister of treachery and sabotage.
It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent.
Rewards for the uninvolved, however, does not bode well for the Conservatives.
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
This is what puzzles me, you use the expression "financial sanity", I've no idea what that means. As a nation and as individuals (not you, you're very well paid) we're drowning in debt and interest rates are about to rise.
We're about to enter a period of financial insanity, because once every decade or so there is a crash. Its always happened and has f**k all to do with Brexit or the non-entity Hammond.
And yet we’re still £50bn a year in the hole, despite it being nearly a decade since the last recession, and with numerous tax rises and spending cuts in the meantime.
I agree with Alastair. A country that gives notice under Article 50 immediately puts itself at the mercy of the remaining member states, as the clock counts down. That's what the government did in March.
2 points: first, there may be a tiny bit of wriggle room in the fact that the final word in the first sentence of 1.2 is "intention" not "decision". "We are going to see Bladerunner tomorrow night because that is what we decided yesterday" is a valid card to play in an argument; "We are going to see Bladerunner tomorrow night because that is what we intended yesterday" is not, because it invites the response "That is interesting, but what are our intentions now?"
Point 2 for English lawyers getting twitchy about evidence from the draftsman of the interpretation of his wording (inadmissible in England): the EU is a foreign country, they do things differently there, and as I understand it you are allowed to look at the travaux preparatoires as evidence of the intention of the law.
If the EU had thought about this issue, I cannot believe they would leave open any option that allowed the putative Leaving Party to have say 23 months of negotiation post-Article 50 Notice, then say "Nah mate - your offers not good enough. We withdraw our Notice. We'll come back in for a couple more years, be bloody minded, cause endless trouble, not pay our contributions - then serve it again. Cheerio..." I cannot believe that if they had considered the point, the 27 would allow the 1 that advantage.
Obviously, parties to a contract/convention can agree to do whatever they like by mutual agreement. It's just hard to envisage how that mutual alignment could ever come about. The status quo ante, before serving that Article 50 Notice, just won't ever be on offer. The EU won't allow us to come back and do this all over again. Accepting the revocation of Article 50 would come with strings. Strings no UK would be able to accept without at least another Referendum. "Do you agree to return to the EU subject to the UK consenting to join the Euro, the European Army, unified European tax rates, calling your first-born Pierre....." (continue ad nauseum).
I do wonder whether in light of Brexit, the next treaty change the EU has to consider will also replace Articles 49 and 50 with the words "Members shall never, ever leave......"
It was implicit in previous treaties that that was the case, and according to the other draftsman (other than Kerr - Italian guy I think) Art 50 was a dummy; it was there specifically so that if UK leavers were to say "And the worst thing is, there is no way out" the Remainers could reply "wrong - see Art 50). So you can see why its actual effect might not have been thought through in detail.
That would make sense. Article 50 has all the unfinished thinking, the rough edges, of a sop. A place-holder. "But don't worry, we'll never need to use it. That Mr. Cameron has told us so..."
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
This is what puzzles me, you use the expression "financial sanity", I've no idea what that means. As a nation and as individuals (not you, you're very well paid) we're drowning in debt and interest rates are about to rise.
We're about to enter a period of financial insanity, because once every decade or so there is a crash. Its always happened and has f**k all to do with Brexit or the non-entity Hammond.
And yet we’re still £50bn a year in the hole, despite it being nearly a decade since the last recession, and with numerous tax rises and spending cuts in the meantime.
Yep, its a given that every recession is worse than the last, the next is going to blow loads of people out of the water.
And the mugs on here will squabbling over EFTA/ECJ/EU/blab blah blah
I agree with Alastair. A country that gives notice under Article 50 immediately puts itself at the mercy of the remaining member states, as the clock counts down. That's what the government did in March.
Given the notification needs to be in line with each nations constitutional requirements it is amusing that a few various commentators suggested the vote itself practically was the notice, or that may or Cameron telling them verbally would count. Aided by the Gov position they had the power to do it themselves, but still
You suggest Labour stand on a platform of "we would have ignored the referendum result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do exactly what they're doing now and stand on a platform of "we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess, we're the whack job ideologues who'll get you in to an even bigger one"
cant see that working myself
The second part will convince Brexit headbangers who believe simply on the basis of time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people will be worried about housing, cost of living, NHS and all the other things ordinary people worry about. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next election is likely to be dominated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a mad call, there are so many other things which can change. Basing everything on the Brexit prism is myopic. It's simply the product of a mindset that cant imagine a different future.
Indeed.
Some remainers are incandescent; but I remember people being incandescent about fuel prices in the late 90s, about BSE and foot and mouth. About Iraq, even. Not one of them influenced elections in any meaningful ways.
Several Remainers here suggest that Leavers need to own the decision. The reality is that we are. But we're also recognising that time didn't stop on 23rd June 2016. Accepting the result and its implementation are the necessary precursors to moving on. Remainers risk the TONY Benn syndrome of refighting the battles of the 70s in the 80s and 90s.
I was thinking about all the 'disaster is certain' predictions during my life:
Nuclear war Nuclear disaster eg Chernobyl New ice age Global warming Various other ecological disasters - birds dying, bees dying, oceans dying Oil running out The Middle Eastern oil fields being set alight in 1991 AIDS, BSE, bird flu etc The year 2000 computer problem The gazillions of finanical derivatives in 2008 Project Fear's predictions of a Leave vote
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side, have you not noticed that it's not Remain supporters but your fellow headbangers who are getting steadily angrier at present? They've moved on from Remoaners to demanding loyalty tests of Conservative politicians who previously supported Remain and haven't recanted to their sufficient satisfaction yet, to accusing a current serving Cabinet minister of treachery and sabotage.
It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent.
Rewards for the uninvolved, however, does not bode well for the Conservatives.
"It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent."
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
This is what puzzles me, you use the expression "financial sanity", I've no idea what that means. As a nation and as individuals (not you, you're very well paid) we're drowning in debt and interest rates are about to rise.
We're about to enter a period of financial insanity, because once every decade or so there is a crash. Its always happened and has f**k all to do with Brexit or the non-entity Hammond.
And yet we’re still £50bn a year in the hole, despite it being nearly a decade since the last recession, and with numerous tax rises and spending cuts in the meantime.
Yep, its a given that every recession is worse than the last, the next is going to blow loads of people out of the water.
And the mugs on here will squabbling over EFTA/ECJ/EU/blab blah blah
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side, have you not noticed that it's not Remain supporters but your fellow headbangers who are getting steadily angrier at present? They've moved on from Remoaners to demanding loyalty tests of Conservative politicians who previously supported Remain and haven't recanted to their sufficient satisfaction yet, to accusing a current serving Cabinet minister of treachery and sabotage.
It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent.
Rewards for the uninvolved, however, does not bode well for the Conservatives.
"It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent."
Spot on.
No it isn't, it's as blinkered as any leaver with no nuance.
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
This is what puzzles me, you use the expression "financial sanity", I've no idea what that means. As a nation and as individuals (not you, you're very well paid) we're drowning in debt and interest rates are about to rise.
We're about to enter a period of financial insanity, because once every decade or so there is a crash. Its always happened and has f**k all to do with Brexit or the non-entity Hammond.
And yet we’re still £50bn a year in the hole, despite it being nearly a decade since the last recession, and with numerous tax rises and spending cuts in the meantime.
Yep, its a given that every recession is worse than the last, the next is going to blow loads of people out of the water.
And the mugs on here will squabbling over EFTA/ECJ/EU/blab blah blah
Actually that's not true is it though.
For example the early 90s recession was milder than the early 80s recession.
I'd be interested to know what, legally, comprised the decision point of leaving the EU, as that would inform what was needed to constitute the reversal of the decision. I suspect here that the advisory nature of the referendum would be legally relevant and so we'd be back to the vote permitting article 50 as the decision point. This ties the decision back into the triggering to some extent, but does that then suggest reversing the decision would have to be parliamentary rather than executive? I'm not sure.
In any case, I'm tending to agree now that this is likely to be a theoretical argument.
I'm far from convinced by that. Years of failing negotiations leading to a failed 'deal' would be much worse. The longer things drag on, the greater the uncertainty and the greater the hit on business and the economy.
If we can guarantee a deal, yet alone a good deal, then I'd agree with you. But we cannot, and I don't have much confidence in the government delivering us one.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side, have you not noticed that it's not Remain supporters but your fellow headbangers who are getting steadily angrier at present? They've moved on from Remoaners to demanding loyalty tests of Conservative politicians who previously supported Remain and haven't recanted to their sufficient satisfaction yet, to accusing a current serving Cabinet minister of treachery and sabotage.
It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent.
Rewards for the uninvolved, however, does not bode well for the Conservatives.
Not a fake anecdote at all
and one of the people involved is FD of a listed company who lives in my village
as for the body of your quote
no I haven't as I took the decision to largely ignore the Brexit bollocks on PB as meaningless piffle from irate people who can influence next to nothing.
It will happen one way or another and then we can take stock of what it all means. Currently I am also ignoring all the press releases, journalists, "experts" and sages on the solid grounds put forward by rcs1000 that there will be 2 years of posturing, spin, lies and half truths until a deal is done. The spinfest is simply part of the process as both sides pump up their arguments.
Personally I'm still looking at the bread and butter issues which to me are housing, cost of living, uni fees and the economy.
The rest is just petulant tantrums from people who ought to know better.
I agree with Alastair. A country that gives notice under Article 50 immediately puts itself at the mercy of the remaining member states, as the clock counts down. That's what the government did in March.
Or, in whichever month it served Article 50. What's your point? Notice had to be served after the Referendum outcome.
There were plenty of folks complaining that May was holding back from serving the Notice. Get on with it, woman, they were saying. On all sides.
My other half, a thoughtful remainer who wrestled a lot with what she was
“They (the EU) can’t hold us to ransom like this. They’ve rather proved your point”.
The rain may be falling outside but above the clouds the sun is shining this morning, I feel.
Agreed.
When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
trace.
You suggest result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ? Them : well no, don't be stupid Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo Them: well no Me : Are we less stable than Spain ? Them: no have you see Catalonia Me: Italy ? Them: laughter Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ? Them: well France has always been a mess Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak Them: yeah suppose so
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.
Depends how you define 'failure'. For most Leave voters failure would be leaving free movement uncontrolled and failing to restore sovereignty,
And how would Leave voters define success? It certainly doesn't match anything they're going to get.
No ECJ interference, £10Bn pa to spend how we see fit, ability to set trade deals with forward thinking nations who reside outside the statist swamp of the EU.
"The statist swamp"
Wow I wish I'd thought of that. This is what Remainers will never get regardless of how much they bleat and whine and call us xenophobic Little Englanders. We're sick of idiots telling us how to live our lives.
Funny how the people who say things like that are almost always the ones who want to tell me that I shouldn't be able to marry my partner.
Really? Lots of us on here have said we are sick of the EU telling us how to live our lives. I don't recall a single one of us saying you should not be able to marry your partner?
Perhaps that is because those of us who care about people being free from continual state intervention in our lives do actually extend that to everyone. You on the other hand seem happy to have the state sticking its nose into every corner of our lives as long as they are not your particular corner.
I agree with Alastair. A country that gives notice under Article 50 immediately puts itself at the mercy of the remaining member states, as the clock counts down. That's what the government did in March.
Or, in whichever month it served Article 50. What's your point? Notice had to be served after the Referendum outcome.
There were plenty of folks complaining that May was holding back from serving the Notice. Get on with it, woman, they were saying. On all sides.
I'd have served Article 50 once I had a negotiating strategy and a settled view on what I wanted the final outcome to be.
Depends how you define 'failure'. For most Leave voters failure would be leaving free movement uncontrolled and failing to restore sovereignty,
And how would Leave voters define success? It certainly doesn't match anything they're going to get.
No ECJ interference, £10Bn pa to spend how we see fit, ability to set trade deals with forward thinking nations who reside outside the statist swamp of the EU.
"The statist swamp"
Wow I wish I'd thought of that. This is what Remainers will never get regardless of how much they bleat and whine and call us xenophobic Little Englanders. We're sick of idiots telling us how to live our lives.
Funny how the people who say things like that are almost always the ones who want to tell me that I shouldn't be able to marry my partner.
But it's nothing to do with homophobia - it's only because he's too good for you.
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side
Err, I'm not sure you should be making such allegations given the hissy fit you had last week.
I'm entirely happy to withdraw the suggestion that the incredibly convenient anecdote that fits with no experience I have had in real life talking with the most vociferous Remain supporters - who as a group tend to be far more interested in the affairs of other nations than all bar the most committed Leave supporters - was created for the purpose. No doubt Warwickshire's hardcore Remain supporters are an unusual subset.
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a mad call, there are so many other things which can change. Basing everything on the Brexit prism is myopic. It's simply the product of a mindset that cant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everything else, it will be a disaster and the tories will get punished. If that means we get Corbyn it will have been a double whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ? Them : well no, don't be stupid Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo Them: well no Me : Are we less stable than Spain ? Them: no have you see Catalonia Me: Italy ? Them: laughter Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ? Them: well France has always been a mess Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak Them: yeah suppose so
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
This is what puzzles me, you use the expression "financial sanity", I've no idea what that means. As a nation and as individuals (not you, you're very well paid) we're drowning in debt and interest rates are about to rise.
We're about to enter a period of financial insanity, because once every decade or so there is a crash. Its always happened and has f**k all to do with Brexit or the non-entity Hammond.
And yet we’re still £50bn a year in the hole, despite it being nearly a decade since the last recession, and with numerous tax rises and spending cuts in the meantime.
Yep, its a given that every recession is worse than the last, the next is going to blow loads of people out of the water.
And the mugs on here will squabbling over EFTA/ECJ/EU/blab blah blah
Actually that's not true is it though.
For example the early 90s recession was milder than the early 80s recession.
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
This is what puzzles me, you use the expression "financial sanity", I've no idea what that means. As a nation and as individuals (not you, you're very well paid) we're drowning in debt and interest rates are about to rise.
We're about to enter a period of financial insanity, because once every decade or so there is a crash. Its always happened and has f**k all to do with Brexit or the non-entity Hammond.
And yet we’re still £50bn a year in the hole, despite it being nearly a decade since the last recession, and with numerous tax rises and spending cuts in the meantime.
Yep, its a given that every recession is worse than the last, the next is going to blow loads of people out of the water.
And the mugs on here will squabbling over EFTA/ECJ/EU/blab blah blah
Actually that's not true is it though.
For example the early 90s recession was milder than the early 80s recession.
Edit - In fact there are other examples too
Well deflected
Deflected?! I think he just pointed out that your "its a given that every recession is worse than the last" statement was b*ll*cks!
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
This is what puzzles me, you use the expression "financial sanity", I've no idea what that means. As a nation and as individuals (not you, you're very well paid) we're drowning in debt and interest rates are about to rise.
We're about to enter a period of financial insanity, because once every decade or so there is a crash. Its always happened and has f**k all to do with Brexit or the non-entity Hammond.
And yet we’re still £50bn a year in the hole, despite it being nearly a decade since the last recession, and with numerous tax rises and spending cuts in the meantime.
Yep, its a given that every recession is worse than the last, the next is going to blow loads of people out of the water.
And the mugs on here will squabbling over EFTA/ECJ/EU/blab blah blah
Actually that's not true is it though.
For example the early 90s recession was milder than the early 80s recession.
Edit - In fact there are other examples too
Well deflected
What deflection? You made an assertion, that is demonstrably bollocks.
Depends how you define 'failure'. For most Leave voters failure would be leaving free movement uncontrolled and failing to restore sovereignty,
And how would Leave voters define success? It certainly doesn't match anything they're going to get.
No ECJ interference, £10Bn pa to spend how we see fit, ability to set trade deals with forward thinking nations who reside outside the statist swamp of the EU.
"The statist swamp"
Wow I wish I'd thought of that. This is what Remainers will never get regardless of how much they bleat and whine and call us xenophobic Little Englanders. We're sick of idiots telling us how to live our lives.
Funny how the people who say things like that are almost always the ones who want to tell me that I shouldn't be able to marry my partner.
Really? Lots of us on here have said we are sick of the EU telling us how to live our lives. I don't recall a single one of us saying you should not be able to marry your partner?
Perhaps that is because those of us who care about people being free from continual state intervention in our lives do actually extend that to everyone. You on the other hand seem happy to have the state sticking its nose into every corner of our lives as long as they are not your particular corner.
Does JRM think that consenting adults of the same sex should be free to marry?
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
This is what puzzles me, you use the expression "financial sanity", I've no idea what that means. As a nation and as individuals (not you, you're very well paid) we're drowning in debt and interest rates are about to rise.
We're about to enter a period of financial insanity, because once every decade or so there is a crash. Its always happened and has f**k all to do with Brexit or the non-entity Hammond.
And yet we’re still £50bn a year in the hole, despite it being nearly a decade since the last recession, and with numerous tax rises and spending cuts in the meantime.
Yep, its a given that every recession is worse than the last, the next is going to blow loads of people out of the water.
And the mugs on here will squabbling over EFTA/ECJ/EU/blab blah blah
Actually that's not true is it though.
For example the early 90s recession was milder than the early 80s recession.
Edit - In fact there are other examples too
Well deflected
Deflected?! I think he just pointed out that your "its a given that every recession is worse than the last" statement was b*ll*cks!
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side
Err, I'm not sure you should be making such allegations given the hissy fit you had last week.
I'm entirely happy to withdraw the suggestion that the incredibly convenient anecdote that fits with no experience I have had in real life talking with the most vociferous Remain supporters - who as a group tend to be far more interested in the affairs of other nations than all bar the most committed Leave supporters - was created for the purpose. No doubt Warwickshire's hardcore Remain supporters are an unusual subset.
LOL
Warwickshire is just a blissful place beyond your limited experience.
Southam lives in the best place in the UK - Leamington- according to a recent survey
But if you don't believe the anecdote then don't it wont have a huge impact on my life, I'm sure I'll survive
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
This is what puzzles me, you use the expression "financial sanity", I've no idea what that means. As a nation and as individuals (not you, you're very well paid) we're drowning in debt and interest rates are about to rise.
We're about to enter a period of financial insanity, because once every decade or so there is a crash. Its always happened and has f**k all to do with Brexit or the non-entity Hammond.
And yet we’re still £50bn a year in the hole, despite it being nearly a decade since the last recession, and with numerous tax rises and spending cuts in the meantime.
Yep, its a given that every recession is worse than the last, the next is going to blow loads of people out of the water.
And the mugs on here will squabbling over EFTA/ECJ/EU/blab blah blah
I’d disagree that every recession is worst than the last, preferring to say that the gap between recessions is indicative of the strength of the next one.
Unless of course you’re Gordon Brown, who claimed to have abolished boom and bust while taking in £200bn a year from the City, massive off-the-books PFI spending and the introduction of tax credits - the latter costing something close to the £50bn we’re down this year.
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side
Err, I'm not sure you should be making such allegations given the hissy fit you had last week.
I'm entirely happy to withdraw the suggestion that the incredibly convenient anecdote that fits with no experience I have had in real life talking with the most vociferous Remain supporters - who as a group tend to be far more interested in the affairs of other nations than all bar the most committed Leave supporters - was created for the purpose. No doubt Warwickshire's hardcore Remain supporters are an unusual subset.
LOL
Warwickshire is just a blissful place beyond your limited experience.
Southam lives in the best place in the UK - Leamington- according to a recent survey
But if you don't believe the anecdote then don't it wont have a huge impact on my life, I'm sure I'll survive
Your general point that 95% of Brexit talk can safely be ignored is absolutely correct.
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a mad call, there are so many other things which can change. Basing everything on the Brexit prism is myopic. It's simply the product of a mindset that cant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everything else, it will be a disaster and the tories will get punished. If that means we get Corbyn it will have been a double whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ? Them : well no, don't be stupid Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo Them: well no Me : Are we less stable than Spain ? Them: no have you see Catalonia Me: Italy ? Them: laughter Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ? Them: well France has always been a mess Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak Them: yeah suppose so
I always win arguments in my memory as well.
Having the last word isn't the same as winning the argument. The two guys on the table wont have changed their minds any more than I will have changed mine. It's why Brexit is such a fruitless exercise
When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
trace.
You suggest result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ? Them : well no, don't be stupid Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo Them: well no Me : Are we less stable than Spain ? Them: no have you see Catalonia Me: Italy ? Them: laughter Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ? Them: well France has always been a mess Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak Them: yeah suppose so
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side
Err, I'm not sure you should be making such allegations given the hissy fit you had last week.
I'm entirely happy to withdraw the suggestion that the incredibly convenient anecdote that fits with no experience I have had in real life talking with the most vociferous Remain supporters - who as a group tend to be far more interested in the affairs of other nations than all bar the most committed Leave supporters - was created for the purpose. No doubt Warwickshire's hardcore Remain supporters are an unusual subset.
LOL
Warwickshire is just a blissful place beyond your limited experience.
Southam lives in the best place in the UK - Leamington- according to a recent survey
But if you don't believe the anecdote then don't it wont have a huge impact on my life, I'm sure I'll survive
Your general point that 95% of Brexit talk can safely be ignored is absolutely correct.
5% can't be though.
and that 5% comes down to the timing and at the moment it's all to early to say since the crunch points are still under discussion
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side
Err, I'm not sure you should be making such allegations given the hissy fit you had last week.
I'm entirely happy to withdraw the suggestion that the incredibly convenient anecdote that fits with no experience I have had in real life talking with the most vociferous Remain supporters - who as a group tend to be far more interested in the affairs of other nations than all bar the most committed Leave supporters - was created for the purpose. No doubt Warwickshire's hardcore Remain supporters are an unusual subset.
The Conservatives urgently need to consider how they are ever going to win significant support from Remain voters.
Top tip: calling the Chancellor of the Exchequer a traitor for expressing modest concerns about the most extreme forms of Brexit is probably not a good move in this regard.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
Hammond's autumn budget is not far off and could prove interesting
Help me out - are you suggesting that the Chancellor's budget will be based on spite and personal agenda?
No, I do not think that is in Hammond's character.
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
This is what puzzles me, you use the expression "financial sanity", I've no idea what that means. As a nation and as individuals (not you, you're very well paid) we're drowning in debt and interest rates are about to rise.
We're about to enter a period of financial insanity, because once every decade or so there is a crash. Its always happened and has f**k all to do with Brexit or the non-entity Hammond.
And yet we’re still £50bn a year in the hole, despite it being nearly a decade since the last recession, and with numerous tax rises and spending cuts in the meantime.
Yep, its a given that every recession is worse than the last, the next is going to blow loads of people out of the water.
And the mugs on here will squabbling over EFTA/ECJ/EU/blab blah blah
Actually that's not true is it though.
For example the early 90s recession was milder than the early 80s recession.
Edit - In fact there are other examples too
Well deflected
Deflected?! I think he just pointed out that your "its a given that every recession is worse than the last" statement was b*ll*cks!
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ? Them : well no, don't be stupid Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo Them: well no Me : Are we less stable than Spain ? Them: no have you see Catalonia Me: Italy ? Them: laughter Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ? Them: well France has always been a mess Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak Them: yeah suppose so
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.
It does look (from a distance) that Macron has managed to achieve some sensible labour reforms without triggering the expected huge industrial and civil action.
Something that plenty of French presidents and PMs have failed to do over the past few decades.
As I have said on here before I think the significance of Brexit is being massively overstated by both Leavers and Remainers. The effect on our economy will be highly marginal and contentious. My expectation is we will neither have a lion roaring with its new found freedom or people trying to escape the starving and desperate crowds in a coracle as was being suggested on here yesterday. It will feel like business as usual.
Business as usual will, unfortunately, not be that great. We are a medium sized country with serious structural problems relating to our trade deficit, our public spending deficit, our failure to invest adequately in structural infrastructure, a run down and dilapidated housing stock and dangerously high levels of debt on both the public and private sector making further stimulation difficult and quite likely counter-productive.
We deferred a lot of the pain needed to adjust from the disaster that Brown had put us in by 2007 by delaying cuts in spending and accepting the ongoing deficits that came with it. These will both be drags on our performance going forward and will have more impact on our economic performance and standards of living than Brexit by orders of magnitude.
At the moment the Tories look nailed on to lose next time out but Brexit is the least of it. It will be because of our delusions about what standard of living we actually earn and are entitled to and a failure to focus on the real issues like housing and student debt that will make the country turn somewhere, anywhere, else in disgust. The worst thing about Brexit from the Tories point of view is that the perception will be that they are obsessed with it and not paying attention to the real issues that affect Joe Public.
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side
Err, I'm not sure you should be making such allegations given the hissy fit you had last week.
I'm entirely happy to withdraw the suggestion that the incredibly convenient anecdote that fits with no experience I have had in real life talking with the most vociferous Remain supporters - who as a group tend to be far more interested in the affairs of other nations than all bar the most committed Leave supporters - was created for the purpose. No doubt Warwickshire's hardcore Remain supporters are an unusual subset.
LOL
Warwickshire is just a blissful place beyond your limited experience.
Southam lives in the best place in the UK - Leamington- according to a recent survey
But if you don't believe the anecdote then don't it wont have a huge impact on my life, I'm sure I'll survive
When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
trace.
You suggest result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ? Them : well no, don't be stupid Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo Them: well no Me : Are we less stable than Spain ? Them: no have you see Catalonia Me: Italy ? Them: laughter Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ? Them: well France has always been a mess Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak Them: yeah suppose so
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side
Err, I'm not sure you should be making such allegations given the hissy fit you had last week.
I'm entirely happy to withdraw the suggestion that the incredibly convenient anecdote that fits with no experience I have had in real life talking with the most vociferous Remain supporters - who as a group tend to be far more interested in the affairs of other nations than all bar the most committed Leave supporters - was created for the purpose. No doubt Warwickshire's hardcore Remain supporters are an unusual subset.
LOL
Warwickshire is just a blissful place beyond your limited experience.
Southam lives in the best place in the UK - Leamington- according to a recent survey
But if you don't believe the anecdote then don't it wont have a huge impact on my life, I'm sure I'll survive
The worst thing about Brexit from the Tories point of view is that the perception will be that they are obsessed with it and not paying attention to the real issues that affect Joe Public.
That was Theresa May's biggest failure in June - when there was no discussion on Brexit, she had nothing more to say (other than the doomed Dementia Tax proposal). Corbyn did. It was undeliverable bollocks, but it was at least a Plan B (or perhaps Plan 9 from Outer Space - in the Ed Wood "it's so bad its great!" kind of way).
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side
Err, I'm not sure you should be making such allegations given the hissy fit you had last week.
I'm entirely happy to withdraw the suggestion that the incredibly convenient anecdote that fits with no experience I have had in real life talking with the most vociferous Remain supporters - who as a group tend to be far more interested in the affairs of other nations than all bar the most committed Leave supporters - was created for the purpose. No doubt Warwickshire's hardcore Remain supporters are an unusual subset.
LOL
Warwickshire is just a blissful place beyond your limited experience.
Southam lives in the best place in the UK - Leamington- according to a recent survey
But if you don't believe the anecdote then don't it wont have a huge impact on my life, I'm sure I'll survive
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ? Them : well no, don't be stupid Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo Them: well no Me : Are we less stable than Spain ? Them: no have you see Catalonia Me: Italy ? Them: laughter Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ? Them: well France has always been a mess Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak Them: yeah suppose so
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.
It does look (from a distance) that Macron has managed to achieve some sensible labour reforms without triggering the expected huge industrial and civil action.
Something that plenty of French presidents and PMs have failed to do over the past few decades.
Well done to him - he created a great opportunity to try, and it seems he went for it.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side, have you not noticed that it's not Remain supporters but your fellow headbangers who are getting steadily angrier at present? They've moved on from Remoaners to demanding loyalty tests of Conservative politicians who previously supported Remain and haven't recanted to their sufficient satisfaction yet, to accusing a current serving Cabinet minister of treachery and sabotage.
It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent.
Rewards for the uninvolved, however, does not bode well for the Conservatives.
"It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent."
Spot on.
It's gone wrong because it was based on lies. I don't know if anyone watched a program called Detectives on BBC 2? A quite excellent documentary where we follow the Manchester police solve three separate murders.
What was interesting was how everything was done by simple procedure. Inspiration didn't play a part and the brilliance of the documentary was how the cases were allowed to unfold without commentary.
Watching how the murderers were undone it was difficult not to think about Brexit and how it unravelled when the thread of truth was broken. Or as Walter Scott said and as the Brexiterrs are learning to their cost "Oh the twisted web we weave when first we practice to deceive.
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
trace.
You suggest result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ? Them : well no, don't be stupid Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo Them: well no Me : Are we less stable than Spain ? Them: no have you see Catalonia Me: Italy ? Them: laughter Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ? Them: well France has always been a mess Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak Them: yeah suppose so
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!
The trouble with the PB Brexiters is that in a 24-hour rolling news channel environment they fight strawmen. They say "look, what disaster?" and, point to the fact that the No.9 bus is still running and Arsene Wenger remains manager at the Emirates.
But very few people forecast a disaster if we voted to Leave. They, we, I said there would be a diminution in the wealth of the nation. For me, in the days of £10 packets of cigarettes, and 5p on the price of a ping, I don't think many people will notice. How would they be able to feel £4,300 worse off than otherwise in a few years? How will they measure the £100s of millions not invested, or care that Morgan Stanley's offices in E14 are emptier than hitherto?
So shouting "look there has been no disaster" is missing the point. We will all be poorer and we will be poorer for nothing.
And for those who say "but...but...they said immediately after the vote" - that again is operating on rolling news channel timings. In the real world the lag can be quite long.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side, have you not noticed that it's not Remain supporters but your fellow headbangers who are getting steadily angrier at present? They've moved on from Remoaners to demanding loyalty tests of Conservative politicians who previously supported Remain and haven't recanted to their sufficient satisfaction yet, to accusing a current serving Cabinet minister of treachery and sabotage.
It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent.
Rewards for the uninvolved, however, does not bode well for the Conservatives.
"It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent."
Spot on.
It's gone wrong because it was based on lies. I don't know if anyone watched a program called Detectives on BBC 2? A quite excellent documentary where we follow the Manchester police solve three separate murders.
What was interesting was how everything was done by simple procedure. Inspiration didn't play a part and the brilliance of the documentary was how the cases were allowed to unfold without commentary.
Watching how the murderers were undone it was difficult not to think about Brexit and how it unravelled when the thread of truth was broken. Or as Walter Scott said and as the Brexiterrs are learning to their cost "Oh the twisted web we weave when first we practice to deceive.
When it comes down to it, the British demos will always support the British government if it is clear they're being pushed around
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
trace.
You suggest result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ? Them : well no, don't be stupid Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo Them: well no Me : Are we less stable than Spain ? Them: no have you see Catalonia Me: Italy ? Them: laughter Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ? Them: well France has always been a mess Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak Them: yeah suppose so
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!
I must have missed the 13% vote for Fascists we had in June this year.....
Depends how you define 'failure'. For most Leave voters failure would be leaving free movement uncontrolled and failing to restore sovereignty,
And how would Leave voters define success? It certainly doesn't match anything they're going to get.
No ECJ interference, £10Bn pa to spend how we see fit, ability to set trade deals with forward thinking nations who reside outside the statist swamp of the EU.
"The statist swamp"
Wow I wish I'd thought of that. This is what Remainers will never get regardless of how much they bleat and whine and call us xenophobic Little Englanders. We're sick of idiots telling us how to live our lives.
Funny how the people who say things like that are almost always the ones who want to tell me that I shouldn't be able to marry my partner.
Really? Lots of us on here have said we are sick of the EU telling us how to live our lives. I don't recall a single one of us saying you should not be able to marry your partner?
Perhaps that is because those of us who care about people being free from continual state intervention in our lives do actually extend that to everyone. You on the other hand seem happy to have the state sticking its nose into every corner of our lives as long as they are not your particular corner.
Does JRM think that consenting adults of the same sex should be free to marry?
No but he is one person and is wrong. As is the extremely pro-EU Tim Farron. Neither are representative of their respective sides in the EU debate. And neither justify the 'almost always' claim made by Alastair in his latest little smear.
The worst thing about Brexit from the Tories point of view is that the perception will be that they are obsessed with it and not paying attention to the real issues that affect Joe Public.
That was Theresa May's biggest failure in June - when there was no discussion on Brexit, she had nothing more to say (other than the doomed Dementia Tax proposal). Corbyn did. It was undeliverable bollocks, but it was at least a Plan B (or perhaps Plan 9 from Outer Space - in the Ed Wood "it's so bad its great!" kind of way).
Yes, she really has no idea what sort of a country she actually wants other than meaningless guff like a country for everyone. She has no idea how to address the real and substantial problems we face. At her best a reasonably competent manager. At her worst just lost. We really need better.
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
trace.
You suggest result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more . See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original pvoted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ? Them : well no, don't be stupid Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo Them: well no Me : Are we less stable than Spain ? Them: no have you see Catalonia Me: Italy ? Them: laughter Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ? Them: well France has always been a mess Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak Them: yeah suppose so
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!
As I have said on here before I think the significance of Brexit is being massively overstated by both Leavers and Remainers. The effect on our economy will be highly marginal and contentious. My expectation is we will neither have a lion roaring with its new found freedom or people trying to escape the starving and desperate crowds in a coracle as was being suggested on here yesterday. It will feel like business as usual.
Business as usual will, unfortunately, not be that great. We are a medium sized country with serious structural problems relating to our trade deficit, our public spending deficit, our failure to invest adequately in structural infrastructure, a run down and dilapidated housing stock and dangerously high levels of debt on both the public and private sector making further stimulation difficult and quite likely counter-productive.
We deferred a lot of the pain needed to adjust from the disaster that Brown had put us in by 2007 by delaying cuts in spending and accepting the ongoing deficits that came with it. These will both be drags on our performance going forward and will have more impact on our economic performance and standards of living than Brexit by orders of magnitude.
At the moment the Tories look nailed on to lose next time out but Brexit is the least of it. It will be because of our delusions about what standard of living we actually earn and are entitled to and a failure to focus on the real issues like housing and student debt that will make the country turn somewhere, anywhere, else in disgust. The worst thing about Brexit from the Tories point of view is that the perception will be that they are obsessed with it and not paying attention to the real issues that affect Joe Public.
I don't agree with you.
All right, I do.
I think QE and the artificially low interest rates have a lot to answer for as they have encouraged a new generation of debt and put us back on the consumption/debt treadmill.
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
trace.
You suggest result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ? Them : well no, don't be stupid Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo Them: ws in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak Them: yeah suppose so
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!
I take it you don't read german newspapers ?
Are they worse than this?
"And that's the word that Nigel Lawson, not the Mail, used"
The trouble with the PB Brexiters is that in a 24-hour rolling news channel environment they fight strawmen. They say "look, what disaster?" and, point to the fact that the No.9 bus is still running and Arsene Wenger remains manager at the Emirates.
But very few people forecast a disaster if we voted to Leave. They, we, I said there would be a diminution in the wealth of the nation. For me, in the days of £10 packets of cigarettes, and 5p on the price of a ping, I don't think many people will notice. How would they be able to feel £4,300 worse off than otherwise in a few years? How will they measure the £100s of millions not invested, or care that Morgan Stanley's offices in E14 are emptier than hitherto?
So shouting "look there has been no disaster" is missing the point. We will all be poorer and we will be poorer for nothing.
And for those who say "but...but...they said immediately after the vote" - that again is operating on rolling news channel timings. In the real world the lag can be quite long.
Bit of a selective memory there Topping. Whilst I happily accept that you have said it will all be a bit 'meh', there are plenty on here and out in the wider world who have predicted absolute catastrophe. Some are still doing it on a regular basis on here. Talk of deep recessions and emergency budgets just for having the temerity to vote the wrong way spring to mind.
I'm not sure how far that feeling extends, and I don't think it the EU offer, and the EU acts like it.
I'd say that's more like it.
trace.
You suggest result " ?
That would be brave.
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
The time for a change.
Or more . See GE 2017
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Which brings me right back to my original pvoted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!
"2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union…"
If no agreement is reached, could it be argued that Article 50 has not been complied with?
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side, have you not noticed that it's not Remain supporters but your fellow headbangers who are getting steadily angrier at present? They've moved on from Remoaners to demanding loyalty tests of Conservative politicians who previously supported Remain and haven't recanted to their sufficient satisfaction yet, to accusing a current serving Cabinet minister of treachery and sabotage.
It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent.
Rewards for the uninvolved, however, does not bode well for the Conservatives.
"It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent."
Spot on.
It's gone wrong because it was based on lies. I don't know if anyone watched a program called Detectives on BBC 2? A quite excellent documentary where we follow the Manchester police solve three separate murders.
What was interesting was how everything was done by simple procedure. Inspiration didn't play a part and the brilliance of the documentary was how the cases were allowed to unfold without commentary.
Watching how the murderers were undone it was difficult not to think about Brexit and how it unravelled when the thread of truth was broken. Or as Walter Scott said and as the Brexiterrs are learning to their cost "Oh the twisted web we weave when first we practice to deceive.
PBs Harvey Weinstein speaks
I don't think Roger has quite had a hand in 81 Oscars.
The trouble with the PB Brexiters is that in a 24-hour rolling news channel environment they fight strawmen. They say "look, what disaster?" and, point to the fact that the No.9 bus is still running and Arsene Wenger remains manager at the Emirates.
But very few people forecast a disaster if we voted to Leave. They, we, I said there would be a diminution in the wealth of the nation. For me, in the days of £10 packets of cigarettes, and 5p on the price of a ping, I don't think many people will notice. How would they be able to feel £4,300 worse off than otherwise in a few years? How will they measure the £100s of millions not invested, or care that Morgan Stanley's offices in E14 are emptier than hitherto?
So shouting "look there has been no disaster" is missing the point. We will all be poorer and we will be poorer for nothing.
And for those who say "but...but...they said immediately after the vote" - that again is operating on rolling news channel timings. In the real world the lag can be quite long.
Bit of a selective memory there Topping. Whilst I happily accept that you have said it will all be a bit 'meh', there are plenty on here and out in the wider world who have predicted absolute catastrophe. Some are still doing it on a regular basis on here. Talk of deep recessions and emergency budgets just for having the temerity to vote the wrong way spring to mind.
Everything played out through the currency markets which can indeed be termed a disaster (https://forexsq.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/sterling-pound-rate-Brexit.png). In fact it was an extraordinary event, such a move in such a short time but what did the nation say or do? Meh. They became demonstrably worse off and no one really cared.
Comments
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
It is far more likely to be a sober explanation of the costs of current plans and projections.
I think that there will be little to excite the Tory base, apart from those who (like me) want to see some financial sanity in the government.
The Demons of Brexit will hate it.
That's what his last one was. He's 4th rate.
We're about to enter a period of financial insanity, because once every decade or so there is a crash. Its always happened and has f**k all to do with Brexit or the non-entity Hammond.
Hammond is the only cabinet member that I see anything positive about.
He is the sober designated driver in a roomful of drunks.
Corbyn's Labour being seen as a credible potential government.
I really don't believe, if it came down to May v Corbyn with Corbyn actually being a credible candidate (because he wasn't seen as that before), that Labour would increase their vote share from last time. In fact, I think it would decrease.
People like the idea of socialism, so long as its implemented by technocrat rather than an ideologue.
Obviously, parties to a contract/convention can agree to do whatever they like by mutual agreement. It's just hard to envisage how that mutual alignment could ever come about. The status quo ante, before serving that Article 50 Notice, just won't ever be on offer. The EU won't allow us to come back and do this all over again. Accepting the revocation of Article 50 would come with strings. Strings no UK would be able to accept without at least another Referendum. "Do you agree to return to the EU subject to the UK consenting to join the Euro, the European Army, unified European tax rates, calling your first-born Pierre....." (continue ad nauseum).
I do wonder whether in light of Brexit, the next treaty change the EU has to consider will also replace Articles 49 and 50 with the words "Members shall never, ever leave......"
Wow I wish I'd thought of that. This is what Remainers will never get regardless of how much they bleat and whine and call us xenophobic Little Englanders. We're sick of idiots telling us how to live our lives.
He may be sober but he can't drive.
The ECJ is a curious (to this Brit, anyway) mixture of politics and law, often interpreting deliberately loose wording in the way that’s most politically expedient at the time. I’m sure another EU lawyer could provide an equally eloquently well-argued post as Alastair, yet reach the opposite conclusion.
"Yes, a very good article by lawyer Alastair and very good follow up by politician Nick."
Delicious
Some remainers are incandescent; but I remember people being incandescent about fuel prices in the late 90s, about BSE and foot and mouth. About Iraq, even. Not one of them influenced elections in any meaningful ways.
Several Remainers here suggest that Leavers need to own the decision. The reality is that we are. But we're also recognising that time didn't stop on 23rd June 2016. Accepting the result and its implementation are the necessary precursors to moving on. Remainers risk the TONY Benn syndrome of refighting the battles of the 70s in the 80s and 90s.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ?
Them : well no, don't be stupid
Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo
Them: well no
Me : Are we less stable than Spain ?
Them: no have you see Catalonia
Me: Italy ?
Them: laughter
Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ?
Them: well France has always been a mess
Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak
Them: yeah suppose so
The Titanic will still be around a hundred year later. Admittedly, on the seabed...
For the record, who on here (after all its the most important place on earth) gives a toss about your personal life?
I don't, marry who you like mate, as long as they consent.
Then point out that for all those 235 months and more the UK has also had a continuous tourism deficit. Compare this record to those of other countries and say this is the failure of Osbrown economics and that the UK now has live within its means.
My track record is mixed I predicted, Obama would be re elected, Trudeau would win in 2015 and Cameron would win most seats and May a majority but also that Remain would win, Le Pen could get 40% and Hillary would win
It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent.
Rewards for the uninvolved, however, does not bode well for the Conservatives.
And the mugs on here will squabbling over EFTA/ECJ/EU/blab blah blah
Nuclear war
Nuclear disaster eg Chernobyl
New ice age
Global warming
Various other ecological disasters - birds dying, bees dying, oceans dying
Oil running out
The Middle Eastern oil fields being set alight in 1991
AIDS, BSE, bird flu etc
The year 2000 computer problem
The gazillions of finanical derivatives in 2008
Project Fear's predictions of a Leave vote
I'm sure I've forgotten many more.
Spot on.
For example the early 90s recession was milder than the early 80s recession.
Edit - In fact there are other examples too
In any case, I'm tending to agree now that this is likely to be a theoretical argument.
If we can guarantee a deal, yet alone a good deal, then I'd agree with you. But we cannot, and I don't have much confidence in the government delivering us one.
and one of the people involved is FD of a listed company who lives in my village
as for the body of your quote
no I haven't as I took the decision to largely ignore the Brexit bollocks on PB as meaningless piffle from irate people who can influence next to nothing.
It will happen one way or another and then we can take stock of what it all means. Currently I am also ignoring all the press releases, journalists, "experts" and sages on the solid grounds put forward by rcs1000 that there will be 2 years of posturing, spin, lies and half truths until a deal is done. The spinfest is simply part of the process as both sides pump up their arguments.
Personally I'm still looking at the bread and butter issues which to me are housing, cost of living, uni fees and the economy.
The rest is just petulant tantrums from people who ought to know better.
There were plenty of folks complaining that May was holding back from serving the Notice. Get on with it, woman, they were saying. On all sides.
I rather liked it.
Perhaps that is because those of us who care about people being free from continual state intervention in our lives do actually extend that to everyone. You on the other hand seem happy to have the state sticking its nose into every corner of our lives as long as they are not your particular corner.
https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/918603594567471104
PS - Iff Brexit does turn out to be a disaster, can we charge Michael Gove, David Davis, and Boris with treason too?
And how!
Warwickshire is just a blissful place beyond your limited experience.
Southam lives in the best place in the UK - Leamington- according to a recent survey
But if you don't believe the anecdote then don't it wont have a huge impact on my life, I'm sure I'll survive
Here’s a good graph that illustrates (set range to max for data back to 1960):
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita
Unless of course you’re Gordon Brown, who claimed to have abolished boom and bust while taking in £200bn a year from the City, massive off-the-books PFI spending and the introduction of tax credits - the latter costing something close to the £50bn we’re down this year.
5% can't be though.
Something that plenty of French presidents and PMs have failed to do over the past few decades.
Business as usual will, unfortunately, not be that great. We are a medium sized country with serious structural problems relating to our trade deficit, our public spending deficit, our failure to invest adequately in structural infrastructure, a run down and dilapidated housing stock and dangerously high levels of debt on both the public and private sector making further stimulation difficult and quite likely counter-productive.
We deferred a lot of the pain needed to adjust from the disaster that Brown had put us in by 2007 by delaying cuts in spending and accepting the ongoing deficits that came with it. These will both be drags on our performance going forward and will have more impact on our economic performance and standards of living than Brexit by orders of magnitude.
At the moment the Tories look nailed on to lose next time out but Brexit is the least of it. It will be because of our delusions about what standard of living we actually earn and are entitled to and a failure to focus on the real issues like housing and student debt that will make the country turn somewhere, anywhere, else in disgust. The worst thing about Brexit from the Tories point of view is that the perception will be that they are obsessed with it and not paying attention to the real issues that affect Joe Public.
What was interesting was how everything was done by simple procedure. Inspiration didn't play a part and the brilliance of the documentary was how the cases were allowed to unfold without commentary.
Watching how the murderers were undone it was difficult not to think about Brexit and how it unravelled when the thread of truth was broken. Or as Walter Scott said and as the Brexiterrs are learning to their cost "Oh the twisted web we weave when first we practice to deceive.
But very few people forecast a disaster if we voted to Leave. They, we, I said there would be a diminution in the wealth of the nation. For me, in the days of £10 packets of cigarettes, and 5p on the price of a ping, I don't think many people will notice. How would they be able to feel £4,300 worse off than otherwise in a few years? How will they measure the £100s of millions not invested, or care that Morgan Stanley's offices in E14 are emptier than hitherto?
So shouting "look there has been no disaster" is missing the point. We will all be poorer and we will be poorer for nothing.
And for those who say "but...but...they said immediately after the vote" - that again is operating on rolling news channel timings. In the real world the lag can be quite long.
http://www.bild.de/
All right, I do.
I think QE and the artificially low interest rates have a lot to answer for as they have encouraged a new generation of debt and put us back on the consumption/debt treadmill.
Is no deal even an option??
"2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union…"
If no agreement is reached, could it be argued that Article 50 has not been complied with?
Actually, I could have phrased that better....
Is what I am talking about. But it is a shame.