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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Williamson appointment makes it even less likely that TMay will stay until Brexit

Good from @IsabelHardman on TMay's authority being undermined further by promoting Gavin Williamson https://t.co/zf1bv75Yw1

Read the full story here

Sunil_Prasannan

first

RobD

second

FrancisUrquhart

Donald Trump nominates Jerome Powell as Fed chair

kle4

RobD said:

Pong said:

No.

It's not that that question doesn't arise, the point i'm making is that the anger in the tory party won't be redirected and diluted by a shift of focus of attention to labour.

I'm suggesting the sacking of Fallon is an issue of principle for TM. She's taking such a strong stand regardless of personal liking/animosity, political strength & party positioning/advantage vs-a-vis Labour.

I'm suggesting in TM's mind, this behavior from her colleagues is absolutely wrong, in the moral sense. Not wrong but labour are at it too and the shit spreads all ways and we all know what man are like but the public expect better so he'll have to go.

Absolutely wrong, in the moral sense.

The PM taking that position is terrifying for many (particularly male) con MP's.

That anger is being projected onto Williamson.

Wait a minute, May fired Fallon?

I don't know in this instance, but I think we all accept that in politics many people are resigned, rather than choose to resign. Many are the occasions are the 'X has resigned' stories and then months or years down the line it is 'X didn't want to resign, Y made them'', and sometimes right from the start we know someone was in effect sacked.

FrancisUrquhart

kle4 said:

RobD said:

Pong said:

No.

It's not that that question doesn't arise, the point i'm making is that the anger in the tory party won't be redirected and diluted by a shift of focus of attention to labour.

I'm suggesting the sacking of Fallon is an issue of principle for TM. She's taking such a strong stand regardless of personal liking/animosity, political strength & party positioning/advantage vs-a-vis Labour.

I'm suggesting in TM's mind, this behavior from her colleagues is absolutely wrong, in the moral sense. Not wrong but labour are at it too and the shit spreads all ways and we all know what man are like but the public expect better so he'll have to go.

Absolutely wrong, in the moral sense.

The PM taking that position is terrifying for many (particularly male) con MP's.

That anger is being projected onto Williamson.

Wait a minute, May fired Fallon?

I don't know in this instance, but I think we all accept that in politics many people are resigned, rather than choose to resign. Many are the occasions are the 'X has resigned' stories and then months or years down the line it is 'X didn't want to resign, Y made them'', and sometimes right from the start we know someone was in effect sacked.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8t6KRstWIk

Theuniondivvie

kle4 said:

RobD said:

Pong said:

No.

It's not that that question doesn't arise, the point i'm making is that the anger in the tory party won't be redirected and diluted by a shift of focus of attention to labour.

I'm suggesting the sacking of Fallon is an issue of principle for TM. She's taking such a strong stand regardless of personal liking/animosity, political strength & party positioning/advantage vs-a-vis Labour.

I'm suggesting in TM's mind, this behavior from her colleagues is absolutely wrong, in the moral sense. Not wrong but labour are at it too and the shit spreads all ways and we all know what man are like but the public expect better so he'll have to go.

Absolutely wrong, in the moral sense.

The PM taking that position is terrifying for many (particularly male) con MP's.

That anger is being projected onto Williamson.

Wait a minute, May fired Fallon?

I don't know in this instance, but I think we all accept that in politics many people are resigned, rather than choose to resign. Many are the occasions are the 'X has resigned' stories and then months or years down the line it is 'X didn't want to resign, Y made them'', and sometimes right from the start we know someone was in effect sacked.

Didn't the twitterage before Fallon's resignation suggest that he'd been asked if there were other Julia's knees waiting to emerge, and he'd said he couldn't guarantee not? In that case I'd imagine they all knew that there was only one outcome.

Big_G_NorthWales

The appointments of Gavin Williamson and Esther Mcvey are disappointing but the problem we have is that we do not know how much more the sleeze will effect the cabinet.

I am concerned that TM has reverted to safety in her mind but some of the objections may be coming from factions who now see Williamson as a threat to their and their supporters ambitions to succeed TM.

I would think that the Nation would share my wife's comment last night when she said the whole of politics is 'wearisome'

kle4

Theuniondivvie said:

kle4 said:

RobD said:

Pong said:

No.

It's not that that question doesn't arise, the point i'm making is that the anger in the tory party won't be redirected and diluted by a shift of focus of attention to labour.

I'm suggesting the sacking of Fallon is an issue of principle for TM. She's taking such a strong stand regardless of personal liking/animosity, political strength & party positioning/advantage vs-a-vis Labour.

I'm suggesting in TM's mind, this behavior from her colleagues is absolutely wrong, in the moral sense. Not wrong but labour are at it too and the shit spreads all ways and we all know what man are like but the public expect better so he'll have to go.

Absolutely wrong, in the moral sense.

The PM taking that position is terrifying for many (particularly male) con MP's.

That anger is being projected onto Williamson.

Wait a minute, May fired Fallon?

I don't know in this instance, but I think we all accept that in politics many people are resigned, rather than choose to resign. Many are the occasions are the 'X has resigned' stories and then months or years down the line it is 'X didn't want to resign, Y made them'', and sometimes right from the start we know someone was in effect sacked.

Didn't the twitterage before Fallon's resignation suggest that he'd been asked if there were other Julia's knees waiting to emerge, and he'd said he couldn't guarantee not? In that case I'd imagine they all knew that there was only one outcome.

Sounds about right - I'm sure once he said that (assuming that is what happened) he knew and accepted resigning would be best, that he went out and did multiple media bits afterwards says to me he was willing to play his part, but I'm sure that in many 'resignations' people have far less agency in it.

GIN1138

FrancisUrquhart said:

Donald Trump nominates Jerome Powell as Fed chair

Does Jerome have any ties to Vlad or the Ruskies?

MarkHopkins

I disagree with the thread header. Apart from enraging some backbenchers, exactly what difference does this make? All the same reasons for leaving TMay in place are still there. They need her to get through Brexit, take any hits from it, and pass the baton on to the next person.

Before Fallon fell on his sword, no one else was going to be Defence Sec, and afterwards no one else is going to be Defence Sec. Basically nothing has changed.

Sandpit

Theuniondivvie said:

kle4 said:

RobD said:

Pong said:

No.

It's not that that question doesn't arise, the point i'm making is that the anger in the tory party won't be redirected and diluted by a shift of focus of attention to labour.

I'm suggesting the sacking of Fallon is an issue of principle for TM. She's taking such a strong stand regardless of personal liking/animosity, political strength & party positioning/advantage vs-a-vis Labour.

I'm suggesting in TM's mind, this behavior from her colleagues is absolutely wrong, in the moral sense. Not wrong but labour are at it too and the shit spreads all ways and we all know what man are like but the public expect better so he'll have to go.

Absolutely wrong, in the moral sense.

The PM taking that position is terrifying for many (particularly male) con MP's.

That anger is being projected onto Williamson.

Wait a minute, May fired Fallon?

I don't know in this instance, but I think we all accept that in politics many people are resigned, rather than choose to resign. Many are the occasions are the 'X has resigned' stories and then months or years down the line it is 'X didn't want to resign, Y made them'', and sometimes right from the start we know someone was in effect sacked.

Didn't the twitterage before Fallon's resignation suggest that he'd been asked if there were other Julia's knees waiting to emerge, and he'd said he couldn't guarantee not? In that case I'd imagine they all knew that there was only one outcome.

The BBC reported that a number of female MPs went to see the PM yesterday about Fallon, and the Guardian reported that the whips had also told the PM that Miss Hartley-Brewer wasn’t the only one.

I guess that when he couldn’t deny the allegations to the PM’s face, the outcome was obvious and he was man enough to write his letter first and front the media.

Still no other instances of bad behaviour actually reported though, leaving a rather bemused J H-B wondering what just happened.

NickPalmer

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The appointments of Gavin Williamson and Esther Mcvey are disappointing but the problem we have is that we do not know how much more the sleeze will effect the cabinet.

I am concerned that TM has reverted to safety in her mind but some of the objections may be coming from factions who now see Williamson as a threat to their and their supporters ambitions to succeed TM.

I would think that the Nation would share my wife's comment last night when she said the whole of politics is 'wearisome'

Can't speak for the Nation, but quite a few of us feel that things are going quite well politically: a genuinely progressive (in our view) Labour Party is looking increasingly like the most sensible, stable option available, to the point that floating voters no longer have the "nice but risky vs skinflints but reliable" dilemma that they usually perceive as the Labour-Tory choice. The Government warned of a coalition of chaos, and seem bent on showing what it's like.

I agree that the Brexit outlook is unhealthy, but frankly it's possible that both Remainers and Leavers overestimate the difference it will make in practice. I think we'll end up more Norway than Canada.

Pong

This weeks spectator podcast "sexual reformation" is well worth listening to, imo.

oxfordsimon

MarkHopkins said:

I disagree with the thread header. Apart from enraging some backbenchers, exactly what difference does this make? All the same reasons for leaving TMay in place are still there. They need her to get through Brexit, take any hits from it, and pass the baton on to the next person.

Before Fallon fell on his sword, no one else was going to be Defence Sec, and afterwards no one else is going to be Defence Sec. Basically nothing has changed.

I do tend to agree. PM promotes a loyal Cabinet member - hardly a ground-breaking move.

Big_G_NorthWales

Sporting quote of the day from match commentator

'Everton have spent an awful lot to become awful'

Sorry DixieDean

Omnium

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The appointments of Gavin Williamson and Esther Mcvey are disappointing but the problem we have is that we do not know how much more the sleeze will effect the cabinet.

I am concerned that TM has reverted to safety in her mind but some of the objections may be coming from factions who now see Williamson as a threat to their and their supporters ambitions to succeed TM.

I would think that the Nation would share my wife's comment last night when she said the whole of politics is 'wearisome'

McVey's appointment isn't at all disappointing. Williamson's is though. I think that must point to really bad news from all this from a Tory perspective.

It feels to me like an old story clean-out. If that is the case then the financial mud will be next. Traditionally Labour fall foul of such things.

The BBC have won though. Corbyn will be propelled to government, and it will be because he embraced the new orthodoxy. The BBC now shape that. They run endless programs to that effect. They all conclude with a statement - the BBC view is your view.

dixiedean

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sporting quote of the day from match commentator

'Everton have spent an awful lot to become awful'

Sorry DixieDean

Indeed. Thanks for your thoughts. A fair if depressing summary.

Big_G_NorthWales

Omnium said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The appointments of Gavin Williamson and Esther Mcvey are disappointing but the problem we have is that we do not know how much more the sleeze will effect the cabinet.

I am concerned that TM has reverted to safety in her mind but some of the objections may be coming from factions who now see Williamson as a threat to their and their supporters ambitions to succeed TM.

I would think that the Nation would share my wife's comment last night when she said the whole of politics is 'wearisome'

McVey's appointment isn't at all disappointing. Williamson's is though. I think that must point to really bad news from all this from a Tory perspective.

It feels to me like an old story clean-out. If that is the case then the financial mud will be next. Traditionally Labour fall foul of such things.

The BBC have won though. Corbyn will be propelled to government, and it will be because he embraced the new orthodoxy. The BBC now shape that. They run endless programs to that effect. They all conclude with a statement - the BBC view is your view.

I wanted McVey in a high profile cabinet role.

However, I do not subscribe to the idea Corbyn is on his way to no 10.

Everything is too unpredictable

Big_G_NorthWales

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sporting quote of the day from match commentator

'Everton have spent an awful lot to become awful'

Sorry DixieDean

Indeed. Thanks for your thoughts. A fair if depressing summary.

I am not enjoying Everton in this position, now if it was Liverpool it would be a different ball game

dixiedean

Omnium said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The appointments of Gavin Williamson and Esther Mcvey are disappointing but the problem we have is that we do not know how much more the sleeze will effect the cabinet.

I am concerned that TM has reverted to safety in her mind but some of the objections may be coming from factions who now see Williamson as a threat to their and their supporters ambitions to succeed TM.

I would think that the Nation would share my wife's comment last night when she said the whole of politics is 'wearisome'

McVey's appointment isn't at all disappointing. Williamson's is though. I think that must point to really bad news from all this from a Tory perspective.

It feels to me like an old story clean-out. If that is the case then the financial mud will be next. Traditionally Labour fall foul of such things.

The BBC have won though. Corbyn will be propelled to government, and it will be because he embraced the new orthodoxy. The BBC now shape that. They run endless programs to that effect. They all conclude with a statement - the BBC view is your view.

Must say I disagree re McVey. As a former TV professional, she obviously comes across well on the media, so has been given a job whereby she can't appear on it?
Does not compute.

foxinsoxuk

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sporting quote of the day from match commentator

'Everton have spent an awful lot to become awful'

Sorry DixieDean

Indeed. Thanks for your thoughts. A fair if depressing summary.

Steve Walsh perhaps not the recruiting genius that he was thought.

Everton badly need a decent striker, but need a manager first. Big Sam?

foxinsoxuk

NickPalmer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The appointments of Gavin Williamson and Esther Mcvey are disappointing but the problem we have is that we do not know how much more the sleeze will effect the cabinet.

I am concerned that TM has reverted to safety in her mind but some of the objections may be coming from factions who now see Williamson as a threat to their and their supporters ambitions to succeed TM.

I would think that the Nation would share my wife's comment last night when she said the whole of politics is 'wearisome'

Can't speak for the Nation, but quite a few of us feel that things are going quite well politically: a genuinely progressive (in our view) Labour Party is looking increasingly like the most sensible, stable option available, to the point that floating voters no longer have the "nice but risky vs skinflints but reliable" dilemma that they usually perceive as the Labour-Tory choice. The Government warned of a coalition of chaos, and seem bent on showing what it's like.

I agree that the Brexit outlook is unhealthy, but frankly it's possible that both Remainers and Leavers overestimate the difference it will make in practice. I think we'll end up more Norway than Canada.

I would tend to agree. Things are rarely either as good or as bad as predicted. Britain will go into decline with Brexit, but it will be a slow deflating rather than a pop.

The only real alternatives are EEA or WTO, and there isn't time for the latter. Climb down or car-crash? May will climb down.

dixiedean

foxinsoxuk said:

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sporting quote of the day from match commentator

'Everton have spent an awful lot to become awful'

Sorry DixieDean

Indeed. Thanks for your thoughts. A fair if depressing summary.

Steve Walsh perhaps not the recruiting genius that he was thought.

Everton badly need a decent striker, but need a manager first. Big Sam?

I'm sure he would jump at it.
However, the mood at the club is rebellious, bordering on the mutinous. We desperately need someone the fans will be excited by.
At the moment, the crowd are on the players backs.
Which isn't helping them.

Omnium

dixiedean said:

Omnium said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The appointments of Gavin Williamson and Esther Mcvey are disappointing but the problem we have is that we do not know how much more the sleeze will effect the cabinet.

I am concerned that TM has reverted to safety in her mind but some of the objections may be coming from factions who now see Williamson as a threat to their and their supporters ambitions to succeed TM.

I would think that the Nation would share my wife's comment last night when she said the whole of politics is 'wearisome'

McVey's appointment isn't at all disappointing. Williamson's is though. I think that must point to really bad news from all this from a Tory perspective.

It feels to me like an old story clean-out. If that is the case then the financial mud will be next. Traditionally Labour fall foul of such things.

The BBC have won though. Corbyn will be propelled to government, and it will be because he embraced the new orthodoxy. The BBC now shape that. They run endless programs to that effect. They all conclude with a statement - the BBC view is your view.

Must say I disagree re McVey. As a former TV professional, she obviously comes across well on the media, so has been given a job whereby she can't appear on it?
Does not compute.

That's fine though - mid term etc. She's done well, but not brilliantly in the spotlight so far. Real goings-on will now be her focus. Minefields at every step. The right job for her, and if she does well then it'll be far more than a stepping-stone.

kle4

foxinsoxuk said:

NickPalmer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The appointments of Gavin Williamson and Esther Mcvey are disappointing but the problem we have is that we do not know how much more the sleeze will effect the cabinet.

I am concerned that TM has reverted to safety in her mind but some of the objections may be coming from factions who now see Williamson as a threat to their and their supporters ambitions to succeed TM.

I would think that the Nation would share my wife's comment last night when she said the whole of politics is 'wearisome'

Can't speak for the Nation, but quite a few of us feel that things are going quite well politically: a genuinely progressive (in our view) Labour Party is looking increasingly like the most sensible, stable option available, to the point that floating voters no longer have the "nice but risky vs skinflints but reliable" dilemma that they usually perceive as the Labour-Tory choice. The Government warned of a coalition of chaos, and seem bent on showing what it's like.

I agree that the Brexit outlook is unhealthy, but frankly it's possible that both Remainers and Leavers overestimate the difference it will make in practice. I think we'll end up more Norway than Canada.

Things are rarely either as good or as bad as predicted.

Not a popular opinion with some on either side.

stevef

Theresa May is a dead woman walking and has been for months. This week has not made this worse. You cant make a dead person deader.

Williamson's promotion is a good sign that May understands that her time is short and that she needs to get younger people into the front line so that someone outside the old farts circle (Johnson, Davis, Hammond, Rudd) will succeed her when she departs. She needs to get a few more younger people in place.

As for Williamson having no ministerial experience, he is the least experienced minister since ....well , sinceTony Blair became prime minister. He, or someone like him may yet save the Tories -and Labour -from Jeremy Corbyn (for Corbyn will in the end destroy Labour).

Sunil_Prasannan

"Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill

foxinsoxuk

dixiedean said:

foxinsoxuk said:

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sporting quote of the day from match commentator

'Everton have spent an awful lot to become awful'

Sorry DixieDean

Indeed. Thanks for your thoughts. A fair if depressing summary.

Steve Walsh perhaps not the recruiting genius that he was thought.

Everton badly need a decent striker, but need a manager first. Big Sam?

I'm sure he would jump at it.
However, the mood at the club is rebellious, bordering on the mutinous. We desperately need someone the fans will be excited by.
At the moment, the crowd are on the players backs.
Which isn't helping them.

I am not sure that Sean Dyche is the answer. Glad we dodged him at Leicester. I think Puel is going to do what is needed at Leicester, and bring through the youngsters. Our title winners are now getting long in the tooth, and the remainder of this season for us should be building for the future. Gray is going to feature a lot, and I think Amartey will appear too.

Omnium

stevef said:

Theresa May is a dead woman walking and has been for months. This week has not made this worse. You cant make a dead person deader.

Williamson's promotion is a good sign that May understands that her time is short and that she needs to get younger people into the front line so that someone outside the old farts circle (Johnson, Davis, Hammond, Rudd) will succeed her when she departs. She needs to get a few more younger people in place.

As for Williamson having no ministerial experience, he is the least experienced minister since ....well , sinceTony Blair became prime minister. He, or someone like him may yet save the Tories -and Labour -from Jeremy Corbyn (for Corbyn will in the end destroy Labour).

Williamson's appointment is very much designed to repel the boarders. She's drawing on her emergency ammunition dump. I don't understand why as she's invulnerable for a little while and as such could have made a long-term choice.

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/926185291236499459

gettingbetter

A pity she couldn't have moved Hammond back to defence.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Kelvin Hopkins kicked out by Labour.

MarkHopkins

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill

Losing consists of going from failure to failure without success.

kle4

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/926185291236499459

'Chucked out' rather than suspended pending investigation? Must be some bad behaviour.

Pong

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Kelvin Hopkins kicked out by Labour.

According to wiki he's a Corbynite brexiteer who recons the NHS should fund homeopathy.

dixiedean

foxinsoxuk said:

dixiedean said:

foxinsoxuk said:

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sporting quote of the day from match commentator

'Everton have spent an awful lot to become awful'

Sorry DixieDean

Indeed. Thanks for your thoughts. A fair if depressing summary.

Steve Walsh perhaps not the recruiting genius that he was thought.

Everton badly need a decent striker, but need a manager first. Big Sam?

I'm sure he would jump at it.
However, the mood at the club is rebellious, bordering on the mutinous. We desperately need someone the fans will be excited by.
At the moment, the crowd are on the players backs.
Which isn't helping them.

I am not sure that Sean Dyche is the answer. Glad we dodged him at Leicester. I think Puel is going to do what is needed at Leicester, and bring through the youngsters. Our title winners are now getting long in the tooth, and the remainder of this season for us should be building for the future. Gray is going to feature a lot, and I think Amartey will appear too.

Dyche can at least organise a defence (as in fairness can Big Sam).
Leicester will be fine. Your players may be getting on a bit, but they are plenty good enough.
Gray is a quality player.

kle4

stevef said:

Theresa May is a dead woman walking and has been for months. This week has not made this worse. You cant make a dead person deader.

You can give it a damn good go, as all those attempts to defile corpses with posthumous executions have shown.

Big_G_NorthWales

Pong said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Kelvin Hopkins kicked out by Labour.

A Corbynite & a Leaver.

And as I said - it is an all party problem but Fallon has created a low bar for resignations

oxfordsimon

kle4 said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/926185291236499459

'Chucked out' rather than suspended pending investigation? Must be some bad behaviour.

BBC website is saying suspended pending investigation

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41853430

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Pong said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Kelvin Hopkins kicked out by Labour.

A Corbynite & a Leaver.

Sky newspaper review will be interesting tonight.

kle4

oxfordsimon said:

kle4 said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/926185291236499459

'Chucked out' rather than suspended pending investigation? Must be some bad behaviour.

BBC website is saying suspended pending investigation

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41853430

Some rather loose choice of words from Laura K there, even considering it is a tweet.

FrancisUrquhart

Must be bad to be kicked out of labour party... Normally the worst misbehaviour gets you is being put on the naughty step for 3 months!

JohnO

Pong said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Kelvin Hopkins kicked out by Labour.

A Corbynite & a Leaver.

Staggered in the sense that he appears the most genial, courteous and mild mannered old gent.

FrancisUrquhart

oxfordsimon said:

kle4 said:

dr_spyn said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/926185291236499459

'Chucked out' rather than suspended pending investigation? Must be some bad behaviour.

BBC website is saying suspended pending investigation

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41853430

That more like it! I thought immediately being kicked out was unlikely.

Jonathan

Hopkins is very left wing. A proto Corbynite.

Sean_F

JohnO said:

Pong said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Kelvin Hopkins kicked out by Labour.

A Corbynite & a Leaver.

Staggered in the sense that he appears the most genial, courteous and mild mannered old gent.

I completely agree.

Philip_Thompson

FrancisUrquhart said:

Must be bad to be kicked out of labour party... Normally the worst misbehaviour gets you is being put on the naughty step for 3 months!

Maybe he said a kind word about Israel?

anothernick

"All that really matters is to secure a good Brexit". But since the Tories do not agree on what "a good Brexit" means the chances of achieving one are in the region of zero.

kle4

anothernick said:

"All that really matters is to secure a good Brexit". But since the Tories do not agree on what "a good Brexit" means the chances of achieving one are in the region of zero.

Doesn't matter. We've been told by some that what Brexit we get is whatever the EU decides, so our own chaos won't play into it from that logic.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

FrancisUrquhart said:

Must be bad to be kicked out of labour party... Normally the worst misbehaviour gets you is being put on the naughty step for 3 months!

Apparently he's received 'a reprimand' in the past for an unspecified incident but further information has come to light.

bigjohnowls

Blimey GW for Defence Secretary.

What next Philip May for Deputy PM

williamglenn

anothernick said:

"All that really matters is to secure a good Brexit". But since the Tories do not agree on what "a good Brexit" means the chances of achieving one are in the region of zero.

Even more comical is the idea that the Tories need May to take the hit for Brexit before the party can cast off that toxic legacy and bestride the sunlit uplands of 2019 politics...

FrancisUrquhart

Those searching twitter for news on Hopkins gate might get very confused about all the nfl fantasy sports talk!

Big_G_NorthWales

williamglenn said:

anothernick said:

"All that really matters is to secure a good Brexit". But since the Tories do not agree on what "a good Brexit" means the chances of achieving one are in the region of zero.

Even more comical is the idea that the Tories need May to take the hit for Brexit before the party can cast off that toxic legacy and bestride the sunlit uplands of 2019 politics...

How are the allegations of sexual abuse in your beloved EU Parliament going as a matter of interest

NickPalmer

Sean_F said:

JohnO said:

Pong said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Kelvin Hopkins kicked out by Labour.

A Corbynite & a Leaver.

Staggered in the sense that he appears the most genial, courteous and mild mannered old gent.

I completely agree.

Me too. I regard him as a friend.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Torygraph have the scoop. Sexual harrassment of a student. Registers a bit more on the dirty old man scale than Julia Hartley Hare's knees.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/02/labour/

Big_G_NorthWales

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Torygraph have the scoop. Sexual harrassment of a student. Registers a bit more on the dirty old man scale than Julia Hartley Hare's knees.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/02/labour/

This weekends papers are going to be very interesting. Are the press looking into Guido's list of labour suspects. Plus lib dem complaint today as well

FrancisUrquhart

Is there going to be anybody left in any political party by the end of this?

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Torygraph have the scoop. Sexual harrassment of a student. Registers a bit more on the dirty old man scale than Julia Hartley Hare's knees.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/02/labour/

This weekends papers are going to be very interesting. Are the press looking into Guido's list of labour suspects. Plus lib dem complaint today as well

Story in the Telegraph reads very badly for the claim that these things are taken seriously. Was raised repeatedly with whips and Leader's Office, who seem to have sat on it.

Gardenwalker

The so called allegations look pretty tame to me. He's perhaps guilty of being a silly old fool.

This is all getting out of hand.

If this is all our MPs are guilty of, they're much more innocent than I thought.

Sean_F

Gardenwalker said:

The so called allegations look pretty tame to me. He's perhaps guilty of being a silly old fool.

This is all getting out of hand.

If this is all our MPs are guilty of, they're much more innocent than I thought.

Our Parliament seems to be rather more chaste than it's counterparts elsewhere.

Big_G_NorthWales

Gardenwalker said:

The so called allegations look pretty tame to me. He's perhaps guilty of being a silly old fool.

This is all getting out of hand.

If this is all our MPs are guilty of, they're much more innocent than I thought.

The allegations look a lot more serious than Fallon with alleged sexual assault and text messaging with accusations that Corbyn's Office did nothing with it in 2016

oxfordsimon

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

The so called allegations look pretty tame to me. He's perhaps guilty of being a silly old fool.

This is all getting out of hand.

If this is all our MPs are guilty of, they're much more innocent than I thought.

The allegations look a lot more serious than Fallon with alleged sexual assault and text messaging with accusations that Corbyn's Office did nothing with it in 2016

The failure of the Party to act following a serious accusation is probably worse than actual acts.

FrancisUrquhart

The initial twitter spin that corbyn more serious about this than may as has acted discisiviely has fallen apart pretty quickly.

Gardenwalker

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

The so called allegations look pretty tame to me. He's perhaps guilty of being a silly old fool.

This is all getting out of hand.

If this is all our MPs are guilty of, they're much more innocent than I thought.

The allegations look a lot more serious than Fallon with alleged sexual assault and text messaging with accusations that Corbyn's Office did nothing with it in 2016

Have you read the article?
The text message is a nothing.

AndyJS

O/T:

Interesting fact — there have been 102 homicides in Greater London so far this year, and none of them have taken place in the borough of Hackney which used to be regarded as one of the most dangerous parts of London only a few years ago.

http://www.murdermap.co.uk/investigate.asp

rcs1000

FrancisUrquhart said:

Donald Trump nominates Jerome Powell as Fed chair

He's pretty grey, and middle of the road. Not an exciting choice, very much a continuity one.

I shouldn't think he'll do anything other than continue to (veru) slowly remove monetary stimulus.

williamglenn

Tweet from a KPMG partner:
https://twitter.com/TimSarson1/status/926186719279550464

FrancisUrquhart

Given from what i understand goes on via Snapchat and tinder these days, knee touching and slightly icky text messages seem rather small beer.

The likes of the alleged rape at a party event and the cover up seem like the real stories here.

JosiasJessop

AndyJS said:

O/T:

Interesting fact — there have been 102 homicides in Greater London so far this year, and none of them have taken place in the borough of Hackney which used to be regarded as one of the most dangerous parts of London only a few years ago.

http://www.murdermap.co.uk/investigate.asp

There was one outside the pub in my village last Saturday, a couple of weeks after a machete attack in a nearby street.

It's a good place to live, and I feel safe, but two knife attacks in a few weeks is freakily unusual.

Gardenwalker

Brexit is bollocks
This sexual harassment "scandal" is bollocks.
And this afternoon's kerfuffle about a new Defence Sec'y was also bollocks.

We have a deeply decadent politico-media class.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

FrancisUrquhart said:

Given from what i understand goes on via Snapchat and tinder these days, knee touching and slightly icky text messages seem rather small beer.

Rubbing your genitals against an unwilling participant still fairly frowned upon though, at least in my profession.

Big_G_NorthWales

oxfordsimon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

The so called allegations look pretty tame to me. He's perhaps guilty of being a silly old fool.

This is all getting out of hand.

If this is all our MPs are guilty of, they're much more innocent than I thought.

The allegations look a lot more serious than Fallon with alleged sexual assault and text messaging with accusations that Corbyn's Office did nothing with it in 2016

The failure of the Party to act following a serious accusation is probably worse than actual acts.

The alleged act is sexual assault on a 24 year old after an event when she was chair of the University Labour Society and he continued to make uncomfortable suggestions and in December 2015 she contacted the whips office who said they could not do anything as she wanted to remain anoymous

Big_G_NorthWales

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

The so called allegations look pretty tame to me. He's perhaps guilty of being a silly old fool.

This is all getting out of hand.

If this is all our MPs are guilty of, they're much more innocent than I thought.

The allegations look a lot more serious than Fallon with alleged sexual assault and text messaging with accusations that Corbyn's Office did nothing with it in 2016

Have you read the article?
The text message is a nothing.

Yes I have read the article and if the allegations are true he has no way back

Sean_F

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Given from what i understand goes on via Snapchat and tinder these days, knee touching and slightly icky text messages seem rather small beer.

Rubbing your genitals against an unwilling participant still fairly frowned upon though, at least in my profession.

Texting pictures of them to all and sundry, on the other hand, seems to be regarded as harmless flirtation by the younger generation.

Jonathan

williamglenn said:

Tweet from a KPMG partner:
https://twitter.com/TimSarson1/status/926186719279550464

Gulp. Scary jaffa cakes.

oxfordsimon

Big_G_NorthWales said:

oxfordsimon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

The so called allegations look pretty tame to me. He's perhaps guilty of being a silly old fool.

This is all getting out of hand.

If this is all our MPs are guilty of, they're much more innocent than I thought.

The allegations look a lot more serious than Fallon with alleged sexual assault and text messaging with accusations that Corbyn's Office did nothing with it in 2016

The failure of the Party to act following a serious accusation is probably worse than actual acts.

The alleged act is sexual assault on a 24 year old after an event when she was chair of the University Labour Society and he continued to make uncomfortable suggestions and in December 2015 she contacted the whips office who said they could not do anything as she wanted to remain anoymous

Why were the whips the first port of call in the event of an alleged assault?

RobD

JosiasJessop said:

AndyJS said:

O/T:

Interesting fact — there have been 102 homicides in Greater London so far this year, and none of them have taken place in the borough of Hackney which used to be regarded as one of the most dangerous parts of London only a few years ago.

http://www.murdermap.co.uk/investigate.asp

There was one outside the pub in my village last Saturday, a couple of weeks after a machete attack in a nearby street.

It's a good place to live, and I feel safe, but two knife attacks in a few weeks is freakily unusual.

That explains your new outfit..

FrancisUrquhart

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Given from what i understand goes on via Snapchat and tinder these days, knee touching and slightly icky text messages seem rather small beer.

Rubbing your genitals against an unwilling participant still fairly frowned upon though, at least in my profession.

It is certainly the part of the story where it goes from small beer dirty old man trying it to on to not ok.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

Sean_F said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Given from what i understand goes on via Snapchat and tinder these days, knee touching and slightly icky text messages seem rather small beer.

Rubbing your genitals against an unwilling participant still fairly frowned upon though, at least in my profession.

Texting pictures of them to all and sundry, on the other hand, seems to be regarded as harmless flirtation by the younger generation.

The key difference there is personal choice/being a willing participant. Not my cup of tea, but I'm not judging others for it.

RobD

williamglenn said:

Tweet from a KPMG partner:
https://twitter.com/TimSarson1/status/926186719279550464

EU wants businesses to transfer activity into EU shock.

Big_G_NorthWales

oxfordsimon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

oxfordsimon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

The so called allegations look pretty tame to me. He's perhaps guilty of being a silly old fool.

This is all getting out of hand.

If this is all our MPs are guilty of, they're much more innocent than I thought.

The allegations look a lot more serious than Fallon with alleged sexual assault and text messaging with accusations that Corbyn's Office did nothing with it in 2016

The failure of the Party to act following a serious accusation is probably worse than actual acts.

The alleged act is sexual assault on a 24 year old after an event when she was chair of the University Labour Society and he continued to make uncomfortable suggestions and in December 2015 she contacted the whips office who said they could not do anything as she wanted to remain anoymous

Why were the whips the first port of call in the event of an alleged assault?

I do not know but it was alleged that it then went to Corbyn's Office in 2016 and nothing was done

Big_G_NorthWales

Jonathan said:

williamglenn said:

Tweet from a KPMG partner:
https://twitter.com/TimSarson1/status/926186719279550464

Gulp. Scary jaffa cakes.

Remainers talking to one another again

JosiasJessop

oxfordsimon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

The so called allegations look pretty tame to me. He's perhaps guilty of being a silly old fool.

This is all getting out of hand.

If this is all our MPs are guilty of, they're much more innocent than I thought.

The allegations look a lot more serious than Fallon with alleged sexual assault and text messaging with accusations that Corbyn's Office did nothing with it in 2016

The failure of the Party to act following a serious accusation is probably worse than actual acts.

It's unfair to both accuser and accused. It's perfectly possible for something innocent to be swept under the carpet only for it to emerge a while later in a new form. A proper and full investigation at the time, along with advice where appropriate (e.g. 'don't let lone women into your hotel room, you fool') might have proven innocence.

A little anecdote about knee-touching: a uni friend of mine was taking her driving test. She was very nervous, and was in a small car she had only driven a couple of times. The examiner comes out, and she thinks he is a little dishy. He gets in, they do the preliminaries, and he asks her to drive off. She starts the engine, checks all the mirrors, and tries to get it into first gear.

It doesn't go. She moves the gearstick again, and it moves, but the car stlll isn't in gear. She looks over and realises she had had her hand on the examiner's knee, not the gearstick.

He didn't fail her for some reason, and as she thought she had failed, she lost her nerves and passed.

(I've seen a similar scene in a comedy since then, so I guess it isn't unheard of).

oxfordsimon

Big_G_NorthWales said:

oxfordsimon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

oxfordsimon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

The so called allegations look pretty tame to me. He's perhaps guilty of being a silly old fool.

This is all getting out of hand.

If this is all our MPs are guilty of, they're much more innocent than I thought.

The allegations look a lot more serious than Fallon with alleged sexual assault and text messaging with accusations that Corbyn's Office did nothing with it in 2016

The failure of the Party to act following a serious accusation is probably worse than actual acts.

The alleged act is sexual assault on a 24 year old after an event when she was chair of the University Labour Society and he continued to make uncomfortable suggestions and in December 2015 she contacted the whips office who said they could not do anything as she wanted to remain anoymous

Why were the whips the first port of call in the event of an alleged assault?

I do not know but it was alleged that it then went to Corbyn's Office in 2016 and nothing was done

In human terms, I hope she is able to get justice.

In political terms, the culture at the top of the Labour Party seems vile if they really did nothing following the report of an assault. Particularly if that is part of a pattern dating back some years.

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/926201727661084678

Novel approach.

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

Those searching twitter for news on Hopkins gate might get very confused about all the nfl fantasy sports talk!

Big drop in his fantasy value with Tom Watson getting injured.

Big_G_NorthWales

FrancisUrquhart said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Given from what i understand goes on via Snapchat and tinder these days, knee touching and slightly icky text messages seem rather small beer.

Rubbing your genitals against an unwilling participant still fairly frowned upon though, at least in my profession.

It is certainly the part of the story where it goes from small beer dirty old man trying it to on to not ok.

A 73 year old MP with power to a 24 year old is just off the scale of acceptability if true

JosiasJessop

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sean_F said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Given from what i understand goes on via Snapchat and tinder these days, knee touching and slightly icky text messages seem rather small beer.

Rubbing your genitals against an unwilling participant still fairly frowned upon though, at least in my profession.

Texting pictures of them to all and sundry, on the other hand, seems to be regarded as harmless flirtation by the younger generation.

The key difference there is personal choice/being a willing participant. Not my cup of tea, but I'm not judging others for it.

There are apparently significant problems with underage children snapchatting intimate photos of themselves to each other, which then risks running foul of various laws.

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is there going to be anybody left in any political party by the end of this?

Jamie Neutral, the sexless, emotionless representative of Blandford.

williamglenn said:

Tweet from a KPMG partner:
https://twitter.com/TimSarson1/status/926186719279550464

And if there is in fact a deal I'll bet the commission will apologise and get right on with telling them to transfer back.

kle4

Sean_F said:

Gardenwalker said:

The so called allegations look pretty tame to me. He's perhaps guilty of being a silly old fool.

This is all getting out of hand.

If this is all our MPs are guilty of, they're much more innocent than I thought.

Our Parliament seems to be rather more chaste than it's counterparts elsewhere.

Much like how despite the general view of the corrupt politician, most of the expenses stuff was small scale (even when wrong), much of this may well end up with stuff that is still inappropriate and there should be apologies and culture changes, but on a scale of monstrousness most will be toward the low end. Hopefully we'll catch the really bad ones.

marke09

Although Peston backed Remain, he said the 17.4 million Brexit votes in last year’s referendum was a “massive wake up call to everybody”.

He admitted he felt “ashamed” that himself and the people he’d surrounded himself with “were out of touch with millions of people”.

Peston added: “I basically take my hat off to [Brexit voters] because they have thrown all the cards up in the air, they don’t know yet how they’re going to land - but it was the right thing to do.”

AramintaMoonbeamQC

JosiasJessop said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sean_F said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Given from what i understand goes on via Snapchat and tinder these days, knee touching and slightly icky text messages seem rather small beer.

Rubbing your genitals against an unwilling participant still fairly frowned upon though, at least in my profession.

Texting pictures of them to all and sundry, on the other hand, seems to be regarded as harmless flirtation by the younger generation.

The key difference there is personal choice/being a willing participant. Not my cup of tea, but I'm not judging others for it.

There are apparently significant problems with underage children snapchatting intimate photos of themselves to each other, which then risks running foul of various laws.

There certainly are such problems.

Often one or other of the children is an unwilling participant and is being threatened/coerced/bribed into sharing pictures. Often the child is being coerced/bribed by an adult, rather than another child, but is unaware of that until they disclose what is happening and it is investigated.

I see this on at least a monthly basis at work. Worst cases involve young people being encouraged to perform on camera by social media 'friends'.

The_Apocalypse

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Torygraph have the scoop. Sexual harrassment of a student. Registers a bit more on the dirty old man scale than Julia Hartley Hare's knees.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/02/labour/

I think it’s pretty clear something more has happened re Fallon than just him feeling JHB’s knee (as bad as that is). I can’t believe anyone at this stage really believes he resigned over that single incident.

The Hopkins incident probably won’t be the last we’ll hear of. These old men really need to get a reality check re the chances of young women actually wanting them.

FrancisUrquhart

Patrice Evra was sent off after appearing to kick a fan in the head before his Marseille side's Europa League game at Vitoria Guimaraes.

Footage seems to show the 36-year-old ex-Manchester United defender aiming an acrobatic kick at a fan at the side of the pitch during the warm-up.

Big_G_NorthWales

FrancisUrquhart said:

Patrice Evra was sent off after appearing to kick a fan in the head before his Marseille side's Europa League game at Vitoria Guimaraes.

Footage seems to show the 36-year-old ex-Manchester United defender aiming an acrobatic kick at a fan at the side of the pitch during the warm-up.

It is called doing a 'Cantona'

kle4

The_Apocalypse said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Torygraph have the scoop. Sexual harrassment of a student. Registers a bit more on the dirty old man scale than Julia Hartley Hare's knees.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/02/labour/

I think it’s pretty clear something more has happened re Fallon than just him feeling JHB’s knee (as bad as that is). I can’t believe anyone at this stage really believes he resigned over that single incident.

It is hard to believe, but until we find out anything more, surely it is wrong to assume in the complete absence of evidence? At best we have reports he could not confirm there would not be similar knee touching reports. It's fair, therefore, to speculate there is more to it, but is it 'pretty clear'? Should we not at least wait for actual accusations to emerge before we assume guilt? There's no reason him resigning should prevent accusations from coming forward. If nothing does, are we still to assume he was grabbing knees all over Westminster for decades? Worse?

The_Apocalypse

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Torygraph have the scoop. Sexual harrassment of a student. Registers a bit more on the dirty old man scale than Julia Hartley Hare's knees.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/02/labour/

I think it’s pretty clear something more has happened re Fallon than just him feeling JHB’s knee (as bad as that is). I can’t believe anyone at this stage really believes he resigned over that single incident.

It is hard to believe, but until we find out anything more, surely it is wrong to assume in the complete absence of evidence? At best we have reports he could not confirm there would not be similar knee touching reports. It's fair, therefore, to speculate there is more to it, but is it 'pretty clear'? Should we not at least wait for actual accusations to emerge before we assume guilt? There's no reason him resigning should prevent accusations from coming forward.

We don’t have a complete absence of evidence though. It’s been reported that Fallon couldn’t deny that there were more incidents, and that a group of female MPs also made allegations, and there were some reports from the whips office as well.

Sunil_Prasannan

FrancisUrquhart said:

Is there going to be anybody left in any political party by the end of this?

Um, I'm still a virgin at 41

kle4

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Torygraph have the scoop. Sexual harrassment of a student. Registers a bit more on the dirty old man scale than Julia Hartley Hare's knees.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/02/labour/

I think it’s pretty clear something more has happened re Fallon than just him feeling JHB’s knee (as bad as that is). I can’t believe anyone at this stage really believes he resigned over that single incident.

It is hard to believe, but until we find out anything more, surely it is wrong to assume in the complete absence of evidence? At best we have reports he could not confirm there would not be similar knee touching reports. It's fair, therefore, to speculate there is more to it, but is it 'pretty clear'? Should we not at least wait for actual accusations to emerge before we assume guilt? There's no reason him resigning should prevent accusations from coming forward.

We don’t have a complete absence of evidence though. It’s been reported that Fallon couldn’t deny that there were more incidents, and that a group of female MPs also made allegations, and there were some reports from the whips office as well.

I did mention he could not deny their might be more incidents (or at least so it is reported). But what does that mean? Does it mean one other incident? 10? 100? A report there are allegations is not, to my mind, the same as an allegation either. How angry am I supposed to be at him? There's only one confirmed allegation and his generic 'yeah, there's probably more out there' which is also not really confirmed, since all he officially said was his behaviour fell short and the rest is second hand reporting which is not evidence either?

A group of female MPs also made allegations? How many? About when? Did he deny those allegations but said others might be true? Is that really evidence?

I'm happy to put 'near' in front of the words complete absence - his resigning is improbable if there is not more, but we don't even have other allegations to believe or disbelieve yet, so while I'm prepared to believe allegations once they emerge, I'll wait for them to emerge before I believe them.

If a story emerges over the weekend of him squeezing an intern's arse, his resigning over 'falling short' will make me think, 'yeah, there could be something in that', but I'm supposed to assume merely from resigning that he has done...again, I'm unclear. Am I to condemn him for more knee grabbing, or are the accusations that were made less serious? More serious? I don't know. We need to know what the allegations were, or most will assume it is in the knee grabbing range, when they might be even worse. And if there are those allegations which ones is he admitting and which are not proven?