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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad for the Tories – good for the LDs: This week’s Local By-Elections

Aldwick West on Arun (Con defence) Result: Con 480 (35% -17% on last time), Lab 112 (8%, no candidate last time), Lib Dem 719 (53% +35% on last time), Green 54 (4%, no candidate last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -30%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 239 (18%) on a swing of 26% from Con to Lib Dem

Read the full story here

tlg86

First

YellowSubmarine

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

Big_G_NorthWales

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Big_G_NorthWales

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

FrancisUrquhart

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

People remember the duck house we didn’t pay for not the fake office we did.

Big_G_NorthWales

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

Suggestions in the telegraph podcast upto 12 MPs will fall

kle4

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

People remember the duck house we didn’t pay for not the fake office we did.

Since I remember the former and not the latter, you are probably right!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

Suggestions in the telegraph podcast upto 12 MPs will fall

Fall how? Lose ministerial/shadow ministerial posts? Be forced to resign as MPs?

FrancisUrquhart

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

People remember the duck house we didn’t pay for not the fake office we did.

Since I remember the former and not the latter, you are probably right!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

Suggestions in the telegraph podcast upto 12 MPs will fall

Fall how? Lose ministerial/shadow ministerial posts? Be forced to resign as MPs?

Denis macshane went to prison over his fake office but I would wager less than 5% have any recollection of it.

tlg86

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

People remember the duck house we didn’t pay for not the fake office we did.

Yes, that's absolutely right. I started work in 2009 and was very busy so didn't have too much time for following politics. But what I took from it was that it hurt the Tories more because of the imagery of the duck house.

John Pienaar said tonight that he thinks this scandal is bigger. I disagree. I think it's mostly Westminster obsessives gossiping about people they know.

TwistedFireStopper

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Ultimately, the voters should win.
Westminster needs to stop believing that it is a special case, and not subject to the same rules, laws and discipline that the rest of the public are. I accept that it isn't all MPs behaving inappropriately (what a joke that is, grown men on at least 75 grand a year plus expenses, having to have a Code of Conduct on how to behave!), but there seems to be a substantial minority that treat it like a boy's club. Trump wanted to drain the swamp, perhaps we should knock parliament into the Thames and start again.

FrancisUrquhart

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

People remember the duck house we didn’t pay for not the fake office we did.

Yes, that's absolutely right. I started work in 2009 and was very busy so didn't have too much time for following politics. But what I took from it was that it hurt the Tories more because of the imagery of the duck house.

John Pienaar said tonight that he thinks this scandal is bigger. I disagree. I think it's mostly Westminster obsessives gossiping about people they know.

I mean it does really depend. I doubt most people outside of the Westminster bubble care about Fallon’s off colour joke or even Lewis alleged bottom pinch...rightly or wrongly in most towns it is a standard Saturday night out, and a pretty tame one at that.

If there have been stuff like rape covered up, now that is explosive.

Big_G_NorthWales

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

People remember the duck house we didn’t pay for not the fake office we did.

Since I remember the former and not the latter, you are probably right!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

Suggestions in the telegraph podcast upto 12 MPs will fall

Fall how? Lose ministerial/shadow ministerial posts? Be forced to resign as MPs?

Telegraph says fall so not sure

AndyJS

Clive Lewis now facing allegations according to Sky News.

TwistedFireStopper

FrancisUrquhart said:

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

People remember the duck house we didn’t pay for not the fake office we did.

Yes, that's absolutely right. I started work in 2009 and was very busy so didn't have too much time for following politics. But what I took from it was that it hurt the Tories more because of the imagery of the duck house.

John Pienaar said tonight that he thinks this scandal is bigger. I disagree. I think it's mostly Westminster obsessives gossiping about people they know.

I mean it does really depend. I doubt most people outside of the Westminster bubble care about Fallon’s off colour joke or even Lewis alleged bottom pinch...rightly or wrongly in most towns it is a standard Saturday night out.

If there have been stuff like rape covered up, now that is explosive.

If Lewis pinched my wife's arse, he'd be getting her size 3 stiletto straight in his balls. Would it not bother you if it was your wife or daughter getting pawed by these tossers?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/926554634700902400

FrancisUrquhart

https://www.thedailybeast.com/jenna-abrams-russias-clown-troll-princess-duped-the-mainstream-media-and-the-world

MarqueeMark

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

Independents will soon have a majority in the House!

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/926556060730748928

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/926556184525623301

MikeL

Surely Lewis must be suspended.

Obviously Con must be careful not to look as if playing party politics but would have thought mileage in attacking Corbyn for appointing Hopkins.

If Corbyn knew about Hopkins allegations then surely couldn't be right for him to then appoint Hopkins to Shadow Cabinet.

tlg86

FrancisUrquhart said:

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

People remember the duck house we didn’t pay for not the fake office we did.

Yes, that's absolutely right. I started work in 2009 and was very busy so didn't have too much time for following politics. But what I took from it was that it hurt the Tories more because of the imagery of the duck house.

John Pienaar said tonight that he thinks this scandal is bigger. I disagree. I think it's mostly Westminster obsessives gossiping about people they know.

I mean it does really depend. I doubt most people outside of the Westminster bubble care about Fallon’s off colour joke or even Lewis alleged bottom pinch...rightly or wrongly in most towns it is a standard Saturday night out, and a pretty tame one at that.

If there have been stuff like rape covered up, now that is explosive.

But due to the seriousness of that allegation, we've heard a lot less about it. Unless there was clear evidence that pressure was applied by the Labour Party, it probably wouldn't register. It's not like anyone from the Labour Party is going to be put on trial for telling her not to go to the police.

Pong

Dover is winnable for labour

FrancisUrquhart

TwistedFireStopper said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

People remember the duck house we didn’t pay for not the fake office we did.

Yes, that's absolutely right. I started work in 2009 and was very busy so didn't have too much time for following politics. But what I took from it was that it hurt the Tories more because of the imagery of the duck house.

John Pienaar said tonight that he thinks this scandal is bigger. I disagree. I think it's mostly Westminster obsessives gossiping about people they know.

I mean it does really depend. I doubt most people outside of the Westminster bubble care about Fallon’s off colour joke or even Lewis alleged bottom pinch...rightly or wrongly in most towns it is a standard Saturday night out.

If there have been stuff like rape covered up, now that is explosive.

If Lewis pinched my wife's arse, he'd be getting her size 3 stiletto straight in his balls. Would it not bother you if it was your wife or daughter getting pawed by these tossers?

Mrs uqurhart can handle herself. I am not excusing it, I am saying that I don’t think people see it as anything different from the sort of stuff that goes on in a spoons on a Saturday night in doncaster. It isn’t something alien to hear somebody make a sexist joke.

Expenses was explosive because it was a wtf these people claim for duck houses when I can’t even afford a house.

felix

Pong said:

Dover is winnable for labour

I think you don't really get the way the justice system works do you?

MikeL

I doubt Con would hold Elphicke's Dover seat in a by-election.

2017 GE:

Con 52
Lab 40

FrancisUrquhart

One thing is also worth mentioning it wasn’t that long ago we had the trial of Nigel Evans, who of course was found innocent.

foxinsoxuk

FrancisUrquhart said:

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

People remember the duck house we didn’t pay for not the fake office we did.

Yes, that's absolutely right. I started work in 2009 and was very busy so didn't have too much time for following politics. But what I took from it was that it hurt the Tories more because of the imagery of the duck house.

John Pienaar said tonight that he thinks this scandal is bigger. I disagree. I think it's mostly Westminster obsessives gossiping about people they know.

I mean it does really depend. I doubt most people outside of the Westminster bubble care about Fallon’s off colour joke or even Lewis alleged bottom pinch...rightly or wrongly in most towns it is a standard Saturday night out, and a pretty tame one at that.

If there have been stuff like rape covered up, now that is explosive.

As Jess Phillips said about Birmingham...

Pong

felix said:

Pong said:

Dover is winnable for labour

I think you don't really get the way the justice system works do you?

I think you don't really get the point of this site do you?

tlg86

FrancisUrquhart said:

One thing is also worth mentioning it wasn’t that long ago we had the trial of Nigel Evans, who of course was found innocent.

Indeed, that hasn't been mentioned at all during this and it should.

Scott_P

@MrHarryCole: Pal of Elphicke tells me he insists he has done nothing wrong. I get feeling the new chief whip is a bit more stick than sharpened carrot.

TwistedFireStopper

FrancisUrquhart said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

People remember the duck house we didn’t pay for not the fake office we did.

Yes, that's absolutely right. I started work in 2009 and was very busy so didn't have too much time for following politics. But what I took from it was that it hurt the Tories more because of the imagery of the duck house.

John Pienaar said tonight that he thinks this scandal is bigger. I disagree. I think it's mostly Westminster obsessives gossiping about people they know.

I mean it does really depend. I doubt most people outside of the Westminster bubble care about Fallon’s off colour joke or even Lewis alleged bottom pinch...rightly or wrongly in most towns it is a standard Saturday night out.

If there have been stuff like rape covered up, now that is explosive.

If Lewis pinched my wife's arse, he'd be getting her size 3 stiletto straight in his balls. Would it not bother you if it was your wife or daughter getting pawed by these tossers?

Mrs uqurhart can handle herself. I am not excusing it, I am saying that I don’t think people see it as anything different from the sort of stuff that goes on in a spoons on a Saturday night in doncaster. It isn’t something alien to hear somebody make a sexist joke.

Expenses was explosive because it was a wtf these people claim for duck houses when I can’t even afford a house.

To be honest, if some MPs are too thick to have learned the lesson from the expenses scandal, then they deserve all they get. On the other hand, I expect the people we elect to Parliament to behave a little bit better than a pissed up lad on a night out on the town.

Big_G_NorthWales

This could be heading for a GE and if so I would expect Brexit to fail

And you heard it here first

The_Apocalypse

Blimey....

Big_G_NorthWales

The_Apocalypse said:

Blimey....

Think that may be the word of the weekend.

Just unbelievable

TwistedFireStopper

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

One thing is also worth mentioning it wasn’t that long ago we had the trial of Nigel Evans, who of course was found innocent.

Indeed, that hasn't been mentioned at all during this and it should.

Why should it be mentioned?
Some people will be accused and will be totally innocent of all charges, sadly their reputation will probably still be tarnished. That shouldn't allow us to let any tosspot MP who can't keep his hands to himself- or worse- to try and get off the hook. MPs are all under a cloud due to the actions of many of their number over decades.
Parliament absolutely needs to be modernised.

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This could be heading for a GE and if so I would expect Brexit to fail

And you heard it here first

I called it first.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/926363322949210112

Beverley_C

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This could be heading for a GE and if so I would expect Brexit to fail

And you heard it here first

Maybe there is a God after all ......

Big_G_NorthWales

TwistedFireStopper said:

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

One thing is also worth mentioning it wasn’t that long ago we had the trial of Nigel Evans, who of course was found innocent.

Indeed, that hasn't been mentioned at all during this and it should.

Why should it be mentioned?
Some people will be accused and will be totally innocent of all charges, sadly their reputation will probably still be tarnished. That shouldn't allow us to let any tosspot MP who can't keep his hands to himself- or worse- to try and get off the hook. MPs are all under a cloud due to the actions of many of their number over decades.
Parliament absolutely needs to be modernised.

Modernising institutions is not a cure all for this. This runs through all society and not just in the UK

Big_G_NorthWales

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This could be heading for a GE and if so I would expect Brexit to fail

And you heard it here first

Maybe there is a God after all ......

There always has been a God

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This could be heading for a GE and if so I would expect Brexit to fail

And you heard it here first

I called it first.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/926363322949210112

Bow to your earlier observation TSE but second then but not accepting PM Corbyn as a given

Scott_P

Big_G_NorthWales said:

There always has been a God

It just didn't feel like it.

But now most people have voted for him to exist, it's all good...

The_Apocalypse

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Blimey....

Think that may be the word of the weekend.

Just unbelievable

I’m beginning to think like yourself that this could lead to a GE.

The Tories have done the right thing in the circumstances though, re the Elphicke allegation.

TheScreamingEagles

Spare a thought for David Herdson.

Things happening on Friday nights doesn't help him write his Saturday morning thread.

IDS is in a particular circle of hell for resigning at 9pm on a Friday night

FrancisUrquhart

TwistedFireStopper said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YellowSubmarine said:

So is Lewis having the Whip suspended ? And if not why not after the previous two cases ? This is what happens when you reverse the presumption of innocence , abandon due process, conduct investigations in public and ask NGOs to undertake semi judicial investigations of private behaviour. This will run and run until we get bored.

I think this will just run and run sadly. There are no winners in all of this

Can anyone recall how long the expenses scandal continued for

Weeks and weeks...and then it would be revisited from time to time for at least a year after. My fear is that like expenses really serious cases will get lumped together with stuff like inappropriate comments and all will be tarred and feathered.

People remember the duck house we didn’t pay for not the fake office we did.

Yes, that's absolutely right. I started work in 2009 and was very busy so didn't have too much time for following politics. But what I took from it was that it hurt the Tories more because of the imagery of the duck house.

John Pienaar said tonight that he thinks this scandal is bigger. I disagree. I think it's mostly Westminster obsessives gossiping about people they know.

I mean it does really depend. I doubt most people outside of the Westminster bubble care about Fallon’s off colour joke or even Lewis alleged bottom pinch...rightly or wrongly in most towns it is a standard Saturday night out.

If there have been stuff like rape covered up, now that is explosive.

If Lewis pinched my wife's arse, he'd be getting her size 3 stiletto straight in his balls. Would it not bother you if it was your wife or daughter getting pawed by these tossers?

Mrs uqurhart can handle herself. I am not excusing it, I am saying that I don’t think people see it as anything different from the sort of stuff that goes on in a spoons on a Saturday night in doncaster. It isn’t something alien to hear somebody make a sexist joke.

Expenses was explosive because it was a wtf these people claim for duck houses when I can’t even afford a house.

To be honest, if some MPs are too thick to have learned the lesson from the expenses scandal, then they deserve all they get. On the other hand, I expect the people we elect to Parliament to behave a little bit better than a pissed up lad on a night out on the town.

I have a pretty low opinion of mps in general, there are plenty of thickies among their ranks.

AndyJS

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This could be heading for a GE and if so I would expect Brexit to fail

And you heard it here first

Are the voters in posh places like Warwick & Leamington really going to vote for Corbyn (and McDonnell) when he has a chance of actually becoming PM? Last time no-one thought he had a chance, including most Labour canvassers.

felix

Pong said:

felix said:

Pong said:

Dover is winnable for labour

I think you don't really get the way the justice system works do you?

I think you don't really get the point of this site do you?

Once you go bold it really hurts me

Big_G_NorthWales

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Blimey....

Think that may be the word of the weekend.

Just unbelievable

I’m beginning to think like yourself that this could lead to a GE.

The Tories have done the right thing in the circumstances though, re the Elphicke allegation.

We need a Government of national unity

RobD

felix said:

Pong said:

felix said:

Pong said:

Dover is winnable for labour

I think you don't really get the way the justice system works do you?

I think you don't really get the point of this site do you?

Once you go bold it really hurts me

At least it wasn’t bold and italic.

tlg86

TwistedFireStopper said:

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

One thing is also worth mentioning it wasn’t that long ago we had the trial of Nigel Evans, who of course was found innocent.

Indeed, that hasn't been mentioned at all during this and it should.

Why should it be mentioned?
Some people will be accused and will be totally innocent of all charges, sadly their reputation will probably still be tarnished. That shouldn't allow us to let any tosspot MP who can't keep his hands to himself- or worse- to try and get off the hook. MPs are all under a cloud due to the actions of many of their number over decades.
Parliament absolutely needs to be modernised.

I've sent you a PM.

TwistedFireStopper

I think we need to get rid of all the bullshit in Westminster, and I say this as a monarchist and lover of all the pomp and ceremony and traditions that that entails.
Parliament needs to be purely a place for lawmaking and government. Forget the billions needed to refurb the place, our MPs don't deserve it. Give them a purpose built building without the bars and listed architecture, they don't need it. Have a Premier Inn standard accommodation block next to it. Turn Westminster into something for the nation to enjoy and let the politicians get on with what we pay them to do.

Big_G_NorthWales

AndyJS said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This could be heading for a GE and if so I would expect Brexit to fail

And you heard it here first

Are the voters in posh places like Warwick & Leamington really going to vote for Corbyn and McDonnell when he has a chance of actually becoming PM? Last time no-one thought he had a chance, including most Labour canvassers.

I am not buying PM Corbyn at this stage. Everything is too unstable to be sure of anything

MikeL

Re a GE, need to bear in mind how long it takes for cases to come to Court.

Even if people are charged, delay until gets to Court, then MP must be convicted, then Govt must lose by-election (which itself could be delayed 6 months).

Seems extremely unlikely Govt would lose its majority within next 18 months, and still highly unlikely within 24 months.

Pulpstar

AndyJS said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This could be heading for a GE and if so I would expect Brexit to fail

And you heard it here first

Are the voters in posh places like Warwick & Leamington really going to vote for Corbyn (and McDonnell) when he has a chance of actually becoming PM? Last time no-one thought he had a chance, including most Labour canvassers.

No dementia tax this time round.

Phil is going to have to come up with some middle class goodies in the budget now mind ! Return of MIRAS 8)

HYUFD

Corbyn on Celebrity Gogglebox on C4 now

Pulpstar

MikeL said:

Re a GE, need to bear in mind how long it takes for cases to come to Court.

Even if people are charged, delay until gets to Court, then MP must be convicted, then Govt must lose by-election (which itself could be delayed 6 months).

Seems extremely unlikely Govt would lose its majority within next 18 months, and still highly unlikely within 24 months.

Thanet South & Dover in the pipeline it looks like for the moment.

dr_spyn

Mirror front page leading with story about a jockey not a politician.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/926562121013448711

FrancisUrquhart

HYUFD said:

Corbyn on Celebrity Gogglebox on C4 now

and time to turn the channel over....

felix

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Blimey....

Think that may be the word of the weekend.

Just unbelievable

I’m beginning to think like yourself that this could lead to a GE.

The Tories have done the right thing in the circumstances though, re the Elphicke allegation.

We need a Government of national unity

The whole point of the past few months has been to demonstrate that the country is divided down the middle and we have a polarisation of two extremes holding all of the seats. We may need it but a government of national unity is not very likely.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/926563107551539200

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/926563107551539200

Big_G_NorthWales

MikeL said:

Re a GE, need to bear in mind how long it takes for cases to come to Court.

Even if people are charged, delay until gets to Court, then MP must be convicted, then Govt must lose by-election (which itself could be delayed 6 months).

Seems extremely unlikely Govt would lose its majority within next 18 months, and still highly unlikely within 24 months.

And of course there maybe labour or other parties involved in by elections.

What all this is doing for future investment in the Country heaven only knows

YellowSubmarine

The briefing against Brandon Lewis looks bad.

HYUFD

AndyJS said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This could be heading for a GE and if so I would expect Brexit to fail

And you heard it here first

Are the voters in posh places like Warwick & Leamington really going to vote for Corbyn (and McDonnell) when he has a chance of actually becoming PM? Last time no-one thought he had a chance, including most Labour canvassers.

Yes, given it was mainly students and academics from Warwick University who won the seat for Labour last time. (I was once chairman of the Tory Association there and stood as a Tory council candidate in Leamington but the student vote was turning the seat Labour either then, only Warwick kept the Tories in the game).

Beverley_C

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Blimey....

Think that may be the word of the weekend.

Just unbelievable

I’m beginning to think like yourself that this could lead to a GE.

The Tories have done the right thing in the circumstances though, re the Elphicke allegation.

We need a Government of national unity

Or maybe just a government?

What is the collective noun for a bunch of misfits?

Scott_P

felix said:

The whole point of the past few months has been to demonstrate that the country is divided down the middle and we have a polarisation of two extremes holding all of the seats. We may need it but a government of national unity is not very likely.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/926529983056695297

david_herdson

If MPs could avoid being suspended this evening, it would be greatly appreciated.

felix

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Blimey....

Think that may be the word of the weekend.

Just unbelievable

I’m beginning to think like yourself that this could lead to a GE.

The Tories have done the right thing in the circumstances though, re the Elphicke allegation.

We need a Government of national unity

Or maybe just a government?

What is the collective noun for a bunch of misfits?

Actually 2 nouns : Liberal Democrat.

JosiasJessop

TwistedFireStopper said:

I think we need to get rid of all the bullshit in Westminster, and I say this as a monarchist and lover of all the pomp and ceremony and traditions that that entails.
Parliament needs to be purely a place for lawmaking and government. Forget the billions needed to refurb the place, our MPs don't deserve it. Give them a purpose built building without the bars and listed architecture, they don't need it. Have a Premier Inn standard accommodation block next to it. Turn Westminster into something for the nation to enjoy and let the politicians get on with what we pay them to do.

Firstly, being an MP is not an ordinary job. An 'ordinary' job, even at the pay a backbencher gets, does not involve the public pressure and attention that being an MP gets (see recent events), and involves two very different workplaces, often widely distributed: Westminster and the constituency.

Secondly, it can be argued that MPs do get on and do what we pay them to do. The country works. Yes, it could be better (if only we could agree on what 'better' meant), but neither are we a failure.

Finally, does any major country have a political system and politicians that work in your eyes?

Sandpit

Bloody hell, go out for a couple of beers and all of a sudden there’s two new named MPs in trouble. Sunday could well be a bloodbath.

david_herdson

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Blimey....

Think that may be the word of the weekend.

Just unbelievable

I’m beginning to think like yourself that this could lead to a GE.

The Tories have done the right thing in the circumstances though, re the Elphicke allegation.

We need a Government of national unity

Or maybe just a government?

What is the collective noun for a bunch of misfits?

Bunch.

felix

JosiasJessop said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

I think we need to get rid of all the bullshit in Westminster, and I say this as a monarchist and lover of all the pomp and ceremony and traditions that that entails.
Parliament needs to be purely a place for lawmaking and government. Forget the billions needed to refurb the place, our MPs don't deserve it. Give them a purpose built building without the bars and listed architecture, they don't need it. Have a Premier Inn standard accommodation block next to it. Turn Westminster into something for the nation to enjoy and let the politicians get on with what we pay them to do.

Firstly, being an MP is not an ordinary job. An 'ordinary' job, even at the pay a backbencher gets, does not involve the public pressure and attention that being an MP gets (see recent events), and involves two very different workplaces, often widely distributed: Westminster and the constituency.

Secondly, it can be argued that MPs do get on and do what we pay them to do. The country works. Yes, it could be better (if only we could agree on what 'better' meant), but neither are we a failure.

Finally, does any major country have a political system and politicians that work in your eyes?

+1

RobD

Sandpit said:

Bloody hell, go out for a couple of beers and all of a sudden there’s two new named MPs in trouble. Sunday could well be a bloodbath.

HM rule by decree? Must be a better option than this lot...

JosiasJessop

dr_spyn said:

Mirror front page leading with story about a jockey not a politician.

http s://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/926562121013448711

It should be noted that there have been rumours and allegations of dubious events around women (often young girls) in motorsport, particularly at junior levels.

Big_G_NorthWales

felix said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Blimey....

Think that may be the word of the weekend.

Just unbelievable

I’m beginning to think like yourself that this could lead to a GE.

The Tories have done the right thing in the circumstances though, re the Elphicke allegation.

We need a Government of national unity

The whole point of the past few months has been to demonstrate that the country is divided down the middle and we have a polarisation of two extremes holding all of the seats. We may need it but a government of national unity is not very likely.

I know and agree

TheScreamingEagles

david_herdson said:

If MPs could avoid being suspended this evening, it would be greatly appreciated.

Could be worse, you could be writing Sunday morning's thread.

Beverley_C

MikeL said:

Re a GE, need to bear in mind how long it takes for cases to come to Court.

Even if people are charged, delay until gets to Court, then MP must be convicted, then Govt must lose by-election (which itself could be delayed 6 months).

Seems extremely unlikely Govt would lose its majority within next 18 months, and still highly unlikely within 24 months.

No.

The Court of Public Opinion does not worry too much about accuracy or conviction

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

If MPs could avoid being suspended this evening, it would be greatly appreciated.

Could be worse, you could be writing Sunday morning's thread.

AV is a good topic regardless of the current crisis.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This could be heading for a GE and if so I would expect Brexit to fail

And you heard it here first

I called it first.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/926363322949210112

No, given there are plenty of allegations about Labour MPs too, Hopkins, Lewis etc.
Plus of course 35% of 2015 Labour voters voted Leave and 20% of 2015 UKIP voters voted for Corbyn, he is not going to reverse Brexit and risk breaking his June coalition, he knows most Remainers will vote for him anyway given the alternative is the Brexit backing Tories.

He is also still committed to taking the UK out of the single market and ending free movement, he just will support a slightly longer transition period than the Tories would until any FTA is signed.

Big_G_NorthWales

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/926563107551539200

Nothing to do with Andrea Leadsom then

GIN1138

It's really not out of the question that CON could lose enough MP's over this sex scandal to make losing a no confidence vote a real possibility and force a general election next year?

felix

Beverley_C said:

MikeL said:

Re a GE, need to bear in mind how long it takes for cases to come to Court.

Even if people are charged, delay until gets to Court, then MP must be convicted, then Govt must lose by-election (which itself could be delayed 6 months).

Seems extremely unlikely Govt would lose its majority within next 18 months, and still highly unlikely within 24 months.

No.

The Court of Public Opinion does not worry too much about accuracy or conviction

Fortunately the rule of law does.

david_herdson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Spare a thought for David Herdson.

Things happening on Friday nights doesn't help him write his Saturday morning thread.

IDS is in a particular circle of hell for resigning at 9pm on a Friday night

Nah, I shall always be grateful to IDS. I called that resignation right while all the MSM commentators were wiffling about Europe (which isn't to deny that there wasn't a European element but it wasn't first and foremost).

However, I'm halfway through tomorrow's piece and it'll need something bigger than that which has already happened to happen for me to start again.

HYUFD

Scott_P said:

felix said:

The whole point of the past few months has been to demonstrate that the country is divided down the middle and we have a polarisation of two extremes holding all of the seats. We may need it but a government of national unity is not very likely.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/926529983056695297

You can still have access to the single market with a FTA and end free movement and replace it with a points system, you are just not members of the single market.

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

If MPs could avoid being suspended this evening, it would be greatly appreciated.

Could be worse, you could be writing Sunday morning's thread.

AV is a good topic regardless of the current crisis.

My piece opens with a line about bikinis.

Beverley_C

david_herdson said:

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Blimey....

Think that may be the word of the weekend.

Just unbelievable

I’m beginning to think like yourself that this could lead to a GE.

The Tories have done the right thing in the circumstances though, re the Elphicke allegation.

We need a Government of national unity

Or maybe just a government?

What is the collective noun for a bunch of misfits?

Bunch.

So it is not a "Parliament" then?

FrancisUrquhart

https://twitter.com/charlieelphicke/status/926564093913391106

Big_G_NorthWales

Sandpit said:

Bloody hell, go out for a couple of beers and all of a sudden there’s two new named MPs in trouble. Sunday could well be a bloodbath.

The Telegraph were expecting 12 MP's to fall, the way we are going this weekend could see the figure exceeded.

YellowSubmarine

https://twitter.com/Tory4Liberty/status/926558487068512256

david_herdson

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

If MPs could avoid being suspended this evening, it would be greatly appreciated.

Could be worse, you could be writing Sunday morning's thread.

AV is a good topic regardless of the current crisis.

My piece opens with a line about bikinis.

I'm not atoll sure about that?

Beverley_C

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

If MPs could avoid being suspended this evening, it would be greatly appreciated.

Could be worse, you could be writing Sunday morning's thread.

AV is a good topic regardless of the current crisis.

My piece opens with a line about bikinis.

Are your bikinis as bright as your suits and shirts?

ydoethur

Whatever the allegations and whatever their merits, tweets like this do not inspire confidence in the ability of the newly anointed Chief Whip:

https://twitter.com/CharlieElphicke/status/926564093913391106

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/charlieelphicke/status/926564093913391106

How can you be suspended for something that’s reported as having been referred to the police, yet not be aware of the nature of the allegation?

david_herdson

Beverley_C said:

david_herdson said:

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Blimey....

Think that may be the word of the weekend.

Just unbelievable

I’m beginning to think like yourself that this could lead to a GE.

The Tories have done the right thing in the circumstances though, re the Elphicke allegation.

We need a Government of national unity

Or maybe just a government?

What is the collective noun for a bunch of misfits?

Bunch.

So it is not a "Parliament" then?

Only if they're misfitted owls.

Big_G_NorthWales

GIN1138 said:

It's really not out of the question that CON could lose enough MP's over this sex scandal to make losing a no confidence vote a real possibility and force a general election next year?

Anything is possible - as I have said before I do not bet but surely there must be lots of betting opportunities in all this

Beverley_C

felix said:

Beverley_C said:

MikeL said:

Re a GE, need to bear in mind how long it takes for cases to come to Court.

Even if people are charged, delay until gets to Court, then MP must be convicted, then Govt must lose by-election (which itself could be delayed 6 months).

Seems extremely unlikely Govt would lose its majority within next 18 months, and still highly unlikely within 24 months.

No.

The Court of Public Opinion does not worry too much about accuracy or conviction

Fortunately the rule of law does.

Election law does not concern itself with voters' opinions. If an election is held then the Court of Public Opinion is the one parties need to worry about.

The expenses scandal tarnished the reputation of all MPs, yet only a handful were convicted of anything

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/926563107551539200

Somewhat more serious than the, denied, lewd comments to Leadsome allegation.

ydoethur

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

If MPs could avoid being suspended this evening, it would be greatly appreciated.

Could be worse, you could be writing Sunday morning's thread.

AV is a good topic regardless of the current crisis.

My piece opens with a line about bikinis.

I'm not atoll sure about that?

I'm sure he'll coral the information in the rest of the piece.

TheScreamingEagles

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/charlieelphicke/status/926564093913391106

How can you be suspended for something that’s reported as having been referred to the police, yet not be aware of the nature of the allegation?

Complaint is raised to the Tory party.

Tory Party pass it on to the police.

Police yet to contact Mr Elphicke.

surbiton

A person recently in the headlines is turning out to be a serial groper.

TheScreamingEagles

Beverley_C said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

david_herdson said:

If MPs could avoid being suspended this evening, it would be greatly appreciated.

Could be worse, you could be writing Sunday morning's thread.

AV is a good topic regardless of the current crisis.

My piece opens with a line about bikinis.

Are your bikinis as bright as your suits and shirts?

My suits and shirts are very sober.