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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » POLL ALERT: Ignore the hype. Brexit might be going badly, but
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » POLL ALERT: Ignore the hype. Brexit might be going badly, but that doesn’t mean people are changing their minds
There is a whiff of decay around Westminster at the moment and it is not just because parliament is falling down. The sexual harassment scandal that engulfs the government looks unlikely to end with the resignation of Michael Fallon whilst Theresa May’s premiership limps on with 53% of the British public dissatisfied with her performance as PM according to Ipsos Mori.
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Further to your point, Beverley, no, you can't eat sovereignty. But I would rather die as a free man than live as the slave of a foreign power - you see how hyperbole gets us into these situations, no?
No tsunami of buyer's remorse, Mr Blair.
I would love to see some polling about how the public would view politicians canning Brexit though.
The people who say they want that don't mean it. What they want is for Brexit to be stopped and think that is a way for it to happen. If a second referendum produced another Leave vote they would no more accept that than they did the first referendum instead they would say they wanted a third referendum and then a fourth etc.
Most people still think the government should get on with Brexit, as we told them to do nearly 18 months ago.
Right now, appalled Remainers should be focussing on specific subjects rather than seeking to turn the clock back. The debate that is required is not on Britain's place in Europe but on the place of immigrants in Britain and on the detail of the compromises necessary for a nation in the modern world.
So Remain/Rejoin would probably win it comfortably.
Whereas all those saying 'get on with it' are saying that because they fear a second referendum but can't really say do it even if the majority is now against it.
Poll above suggests 46% to 41% against brexit whether weakly or strongly, but this doesn't seem to feature strongly in the analysis of the result?!?
We had a democratic referendum, and the People voted to leave -and by leave they did not choose to leave just in name but to declare independence from EU control over our laws and borders.
It does not matter whether you disagree with that decision. What matters is that democracy is upheld.
If you think the decision to leave was to mistake, then campaign for us to rejoin AFTER we have left. But to frustrate the result of a democratic election would I believe leave millions frustrated and angry, would lead to people being driven into the arms of extremists, and I fear, into violence.
It’s like some refuse to see reality, so invent a theory which is the equivalent of a comfort blanket. What parts of Corbyn’s support is going to walk away from him? Not the under 40s, who recent polling shows not only hold the Conservative party in contempt, but in large numbers see Labour as the party on their side. It definitely won’t be the students - voting Corbyn has got their concerns on the agenda, in a way that voting for anyone else wouldn’t have. The Conservative Remainers? With the way the government is handling the Brexit negotiations, no way. Labour Leavers? If they didn’t vote Tory in 2017 on the back of the immigration issue then it’s likely they will never time.
Something like 66% of the country would be appalled 33% happy.
I took part in that poll and I was in the 66%, democracy must be respected, even if I don't like the result
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/05/brexit-theresa-may-economic-austerity-leave-voting
Britain returns to the EU and says "if you give us a permanent (or, say, 50 year) opt out on free movement of people, we will join the Euro".
Remainers love it because we get to remain and the vast majority of leavers, who voted because they were tired of seeing their living standards decline due to having to compete with beds-in-sheds immigrants, also love it. It's their jobs they want to protect, not some abstract notion of fiscal independence.
Sovereignty nuts like me, who see the democratic deficit within the EU as the primary problem, will of course be outraged. I suspect the Conservative backbenches would riot. But we will be in the minority. The government would fall. Corbyn would come in. And a deal done.
For those who say you need to accept the four freedoms before joining the Euro I say - fudge!
It would not be my choice of compromise, far from it. I'd fight it every inch of the way. But the point is - I am sure there are compromises out there that are acceptable to the majority, even if they seem extremely unpalatable to some.
If what’s changed is that leaving is proving ‘too difficult’, that just says it’s not a club it’s a prison - and we should have left years ago.
Good piece by Kate Maltby.
If in five years time after we have left a new government wanted a referendum on rejoining then so be it.
" would lead to people being driven into the arms of extremists, and I fear, into violence." - This is crypto facistic nonsense which would be laughable if it weren't mildly disturbing. "
If you are one of those people who think that the will of the people should be frustrated, then the fascism is all yours. I am arguing for democracy.
1. Her father is friends with Mr Green
2. The drink where he made a pass at her was to discuss her career.
Both aggravating factors in the seriousness of the allegations, IMHO.
No. No No.
Back in 1975 we had a referendum, the people spoke ..... by a much, much bigger margin....and we Joined but those who didn’t like the EU, for whatever reason didn’t give up. They kept nagging away, got some people who could buy information providers on their side..... IIRC the Mail was in favour of the EU then..... and eventually we had another vote with a much small majority for Leaving.
So why should those of us who believe we were right first time be barred from campaigning to reverse what we sincerely believe will turn out to be a disastrous decision?
Welcome back, Mr. Pedley.
Indeed, whatever happens will annoy at least half the country.
People are more likely to be drawn in to violence if they lose their jobs, they can't afford to buy food/ there is no food in the shops to buy. To me it seems that those are both possibilities with a combination of a no deal Brexit and economic collapse.
'After several rounds of negotiation and consultation with industry and business leaders it is clear that our best destination after leaving the European Union is to rejoin the European Free Trade Association and continue our single market access via that route. We will leave the EU with no transition deal as none will be needed. Our focus now switches to strengthening our Border Force so that we can impose new restrictions on migration on day one after leaving.'
Nutters will hate it, most people will think fair enough. People get on with their lives.
No change there then.
The idea that would be a walkover for Remain is a non starter.
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/927120156844838912
In reality the current deadlock in the polling is actually a call to arms for europhiles. In the longer term almost everything is to play for.
Let us suppose for a moment that a poll was presented in the format "would you rather keep unlimited immigration, or keep the pound?"
Of course the pound is wildly popular, and I myself said I felt the compromise was unpalatable. But I suspect in a round of horse trading, if it were possible to keep all the benefits of EU membership, while eliminating freedom of movement of people, and the cost the EU extracted from us was Euro membership, there would be a majority consensus for that deal.
As I said, an ugly compromise - and one which I would not support - but the point is that compromises are there to be made. The question is - why is nobody even suggesting them?
https://twitter.com/TheNewEuropean/status/926767308021710853
Leaving the EU to join EFTA has plenty of its own cliff-edge issues associated with it. We would also need massive new customs facilities overnight. We would also drop out of the EU's third party deals and wouldn't automatically join any of EFTA's. (They have renegotiation clauses as EFTA wasn't intended to expand.) It still presents existential issues for the future of Northern Ireland.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_regional_election,_2017#Opinion_polls
https://twitter.com/kasie/status/927193216948072449
Given the choice between ending free movement and joining the euro and staying in the EU or ending free movement and keeping the £ there would only be one winner and it would not be the EU!
That wouldn't necessarily matter of course. No country's economy with the lone exception of Luxembourg ever has been, and they still joined because essentially it's a political not an economic project.
However, if Britain's banking system had been added to those of Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Ireland and Portugal in 2007-8 the euro would have collapsed. It almost collapsed as it was and Britain's banking sector was bigger and more damaged than all those others put together. So the EU would be taking on a huge risk if they allowed us to join especially when we have vast debts and a still significant deficit.
I cannot see them being willing to take on a member of the Euro that carries as many economic risks as Britain at a time when it has been graphically demonstrated that we are unenthusiastic about even our semi-detached status.
And that would be mirrored in Britain. I voted Remain because I foresaw most of the chaos that is now happening. If I were told that that would have led to Euro membership - which I thought unlikely for the reasons I have given - I would unhesitatingly have voted leave, on the basis that ten difficult and chaotic years are better than economic collapse and thirty years of war, which I could easily see arising from our membership of the Euro without the even more improbable political Union to go with it.
By my reckoning Leave would have to get at least 65.35% in the third referendum to ensure Brexit.
Winner, the country.
We are still remembered in Ireland by our honorific title which was given to us after the famine.
We gave away our estates (around 7% of the country) in 1 acre parcels - we couldn't save our people, but we could let them die on their own land
You can pose as the voice of reason if you wish but you belong in the same circle of libertarian Brexit Hell as Dan Hannan in my view.
The European Community has always been a political union. People think in far too binary terms about the future development of the Eurozone and imagine that it will need a single government, but that is not the reality.
(Unless you meant caning...)
http://mashable.com/2017/11/02/ios-11-keyboard-glitch/
To prevent implementation of the democratic decision is something different
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/927120156844838912?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/5624/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-poll-alert-ignore-the-hype-brexit-might-be-going-badly-but/p1
However, let's do a quick, dispassionate fag-packet calculation here.
35% of the population "strongly" want to remain in the EU. One can assume that even if they have reservations about the Euro, their desire to remain in the EU trumps such reservations. That gives us our base for the deal.
Let us then work out how many people might go for the "you can have your exemption from freedom of movement, but you must join the euro" on a descending basis, starting from our 35% base
- of the 9% who want to remain but don't feel strongly - two thirds go for the deal, adding 6%
- of the 8% who are undecided - 50% go for the deal, adding 5%
- the 8% who feel weakly for leave - 25% go for the deal, adding 2%
- of the 35% who strongly want to leave - 20% go for the deal, adding 7%
- the 4% who don't know we'll assign a final 2%.
That would give a hypothetical 57/43 split for remain on those terms. Not convincing, but certainly more convincing than the original result.
The big "what if" is what if the 35% feel incredibly strongly about freedom of movement, and they see this as by far and away the number one reason to leave.
As I put it to you before, if the choice becomes "you can have your restrictions on freedom of movement if you give up the pound", to the average man on the street, the freedom to not have his job nicked by an immigrant in a bed-in-a-shed trumps the abstract notion of fiscal independence.
However, the average man on the street voted this way because he is sick and tired of declining living standards and wages. If he's worried at all about losing his job because of an economic cliff-edge hard brexit, he may well support remaining in the EU if he gets his exemption from freedom of movement. After all, it's protecting his job he wants, not abstract notions of sovereignty.
So *if* 40% of strong leavers support this horse trade, double the amount I guessed in my fag packet calculation, you then have a 64 / 36 split for remain, which is pretty convincing.
It's a thought experiment, nothing more, but it's an interesting one nonetheless. For me, Brexit is ideological - it's about sovereignty. For those who voted to protect their jobs and put more food on their plates (probably core Labour voters), a 'remain' that limited immigration but accepted the Euro might form a winning coalition with ardent pro-Europhiles.
Even if we can't save the Status Quo we can establish the Leave horror as a Grimm's fairy tale for our grand children. Forza !
In 2011 an astonishing 85% of British voters opposed joining the Euro with just 9% in favour. So less than a third of Remain voters back the Euro as well of course as all the Leave voters being opposed.
35% are Leavers who want immigration control above all, 52% just wanted to Leave the EU for immigration or sovereignty reasons, 85% will only accept the EU if it means staying out of the Euro.
Conclusion, a non-starter.
https://today.yougov.com/news/2011/08/15/bloombergyougov-poll-reports-no-appetite-any-more-/
https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664