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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Marf cartoon on the new Defence Secretary who keeps
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I'll get my coat.
Can't see Williamson ever getting enough MP votes to reach a members vote run-off though; As chief whip he will have pissed off too many MPs. IIRC Heath is the only former chief whip to ever become PM.
A female Tory activist has revealed she reported the allegation of rape and concerns about the "toxic" culture in Westminster to David Natzler, the Clerk of the House of Commons.
She was led to believe that her concerns about the alleged attack would be passed to Ms Leadsom, the then Leader of the Commons, and Gavin Williamson, the then Chief Whip.
However she was left feeling "worthless" after neither Ms Leadsom or Mr Williamson contacted her to discuss her allegations and there was no follow up from Parliamentary authorities.
Ms Leadsom initially denied that the rape allegation had been formally "referred" to her. However The Telegraph can disclose that she was informed by Mr Natzler that police were examining "criminal allegations".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/06/tory-activist-says-raped-senior-party-figure-commons-ignored/
As a society we are currently in the process of declaring all out war on the Car and the people who drive them (not saying that's necessarily a bad thing)
We shouldn't be surprised therefore that people are increasingly reluctant to buy... My guess is that motor car sales will go into a long-term decline over the next 10 years before a boom of electric cars takes place.
The Saudis do seem to be losing the place at the moment.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-41879690?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5a00d33ae4b0cd5ea8fd9aa4&'This was not illegal'&&ns_fee=0#post_5a00d33ae4b0cd5ea8fd9aa4
He makes IDS sound like David Cameron.
Definitely laying Gavin Williamson in the next PM/Tory leader markets.
The BBC is clearly taking a little time to check the story.
The overwhelming evidence of relatively simply, blatant and massive tax avoidance/evasion - and the barefaced lies told by a number of those involved - is pretty nauseating.
(Though it would be fair to say that the comedy perpetrated by the Brown people is significantly more criminal than any of their tax arrangements.)
Tax avoiders - how we pay our talent in tax efficient manner
Tax evaders - how others pay themselves in tax efficient manner
Knowing how pointless a lot of International Law is though, i'd bet a nation could claim another declared war on them, beat the 'declaring' side into submission, then have enough backers to avoid any long term reaction.
It is middle aged 40 to 50 year olds they need to win back.
Canada's too far away.
Sounds like the new lib dems ;-)
We'll just need to ask where ave it and Sean T end up I guess....
Had a new party round my way announcing grand plans to stand in every seat in the locals to take on the entrenched parties, stand in all 98 seats, had a launch, consultation on proposals for policies a year out and even prepared a manifesto. In the end they stood in one seat where they got 1.3% even though the candidate, as an Indy, had come in third in the original PCC elections with over 11000 votes. I felt bad for them, when they talked about how people just hadn't come forward.
%+ with young voters.
Although now, the term ‘younger voters’ has really come to mean the under 40s generally. While the Tories not doing well with 18-24 year olds is one thing, doing badly with those in their thirties and early forties is another thing.
I enjoyed my visits to Oporto
/ends
I still reckon we could take them though. 16 AAB alone.
Are Chile playing somewhere?
Answer: JRM and Amber Rudd.
I haven't checked IDS or Tom Tugendhat's voting records (or Charles Kennedy's, or Tony Blair's), but I thought most Catholic MPs who attend mass more than once a year voted either "aye" to lawful abortion before the smallest number of weeks and "no" to all other available thresholds, or against it before any number of weeks. The joke being that they usually used to meet Ian Paisley in the voting lobby.
David Davis is too old to be welcomed as anything other than a caretaker. The Tories may or may not be about to go into opposition, but if they do then JRM has the look of someone who could stay in the job far longer than IDS, Michael Howard, or William Hague; and if they don't he will soon acquire the look of a highly capable potential prime minister. He could easily win enough support among MPs as the MPs' votes progress that whoever is the number two will drop out, obviating the need to ballot the membership.
He's a turnoff to metropolitan Labour-voting types and to pro-Remain "Tory Blairites", but who cares? He has the image of a non-politician politician - a guy with a smile, a genuinely pleasant manner (compare him to Boris in that respect), and an exceptionally quick brain, who is generally nice to people and unlikely to chase skirt. He doesn't at all look like a lying tricksy incompetent bullshitting bastard, which is what politicians in the country in all parties are increasingly coming across as. If that convinces 3+% of the overall voteshare to move away from Labour, he'll be hailed as a wonder boy.
The only group of Tory supporters he might alienate are the DUP! But don't underestimate that group's capacity for realpolitik. After all they have a long record of collaborating with Sinn Fein. They may demand a price to keep to their agreement on supply and confidence but I doubt that JRM's faith will upset them that much. I'm sure his team can write a speech on the implications of Brexit for British-Irish relations that will cheer them. "The present arrangement has had its ups and downs but it has worked, and the British exit from the EU does not require that we cause uncertainty by holding referendums about the border between our two countries, plebiscites which would only be divisive whatever their outcomes", and so on.
http://www.lordashcroft.com/2017/11/statement-lord-ashcroft/
The Tories had a 36% lead with over 65s in 2017 though compared to a 24% lead in 2015 and a 17% lead with 55 to 64s in 2017 compared to a 6% lead in 2015.
So Labour still beat the Tories with young people in 2015 and 2017 and the Tories beat Labour with old people in both 2015 and 2017 it was just the margins expanded significantly for both.
I agree some measures need to be taken on affordable housing to win back young people but it is 35 to 44s who are key. In 2015 the Tories tied with 35 to 44s but in 2017 they lost them by 16% (they won 45 to 54s by 3% in both 2015 and 2017).
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2015
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/927654604891975687
Re the Tories increasing their lead with older voters. That’s all well and good, but under FPTP that made little difference - the Tories ended up losing seats. By contrast Labour’s increased lead with younger voters led to them gaining seats. So the Tories are going to have to close the gap with more than just those 35-44.
Since time immemorial the Conservatives have struggled with the under 30s.
What was it he was expecting them to discover that they didn't?
The Tories were just 8 seats from a majority, so 35 to 44s could eliminate that.