@AndyJS here are some key reasons: inter generational unfairness, socially liberal, perception Tories dislike young people.
The Tories have not won young people for decades, even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
It is middle aged 40 to 50 year olds they need to win back.
The Conservatives won 45+ age groups. They went further backwards with the under 40s at this GE, they need to win members of that group back and recover some lost ground. In 2015 for example Labour only had a 3% lead among those aged 25-34.
The issue for the Conservatives is the 35-45 age group.
Since time immemorial the Conservatives have struggled with the under 30s.
Makes sense - I'd never voted Tory, then BANG, turned 30 and voted Tory that very year.
You tend to turn from voting Labour to voting Tory when you get married, have a child and buy your first property (unless a landslide election year).
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
Going to get worse before it gets better.
Worse? How could it possibly be worse? Jehovah! Jehovah!
There are things that would cause a resignation which they could not then complain about, but those would be very extreme events, so yeah, May cannot risk a big name causing trouble when they leave.
LBJs dictum about tent pissers doesnt work if they are inside the tent, but shitting all over it.
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
Going to get worse before it gets better.
Worse? How could it possibly be worse? Jehovah! Jehovah!
@AndyJS here are some key reasons: inter generational unfairness, socially liberal, perception Tories dislike young people.
The Tories have not won young people for decades, even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
It is middle aged 40 to 50 year olds they need to win back.
The Conservatives won 45+ age groups. They went further backwards with the under 40s at this GE, they need to win members of that group back and recover some lost ground. In 2015 for example Labour only had a 3% lead among those aged 25-34.
Labour had a 3% lead amongst 25-34s in 2015 and a 29% lead in 2017 and a 16% lead amongst 18-24s in 2015 compared to a 35% lead in 2017.
The Tories had a 36% lead with over 65s in 2017 though compared to a 24% lead in 2015 and a 17% lead with 55 to 64s in 2017 compared to a 6% lead in 2015.
So Labour still beat the Tories with young people in 2015 and 2017 and the Tories beat Labour with old people in both 2015 and 2017 it was just the margins expanded significantly for both.
Those who are 35-40 are referred to now as ‘young people’ (in electoral terms) as I said in my earlier post.
Re the Tories increasing their lead with older voters. That’s all well and good, but under FPTP that made little difference - the Tories ended up losing seats. By contrast Labour’s increased lead with younger voters led to them gaining seats. So the Tories are going to have to close the gap with more than just those 35-44.
Except they are not 35-40 but 35-44 which when combined with the other key 45 to 54 group represents the middle aged voting bracket.
The Tories were just 8 seats from a majority, so 35 to 44s could eliminate that.
That’s how MORI defines it, but my point is that part of that age group are now seen as ‘younger voters.’ If you want to believe that appealing only to 35-44s out of the younger age group will deliver a majority, you can. Just like Tories believed that winning the WWC vote and the Baby Boomers would lead to a significant majority....
Obviously you need some under 30s to win but the Tories will never win a majority of those whereas they can at least tie 35 to 44s as they did in 2015.
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.
When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.
Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.
@AndyJS here are some key reasons: inter generational unfairness, socially liberal, perception Tories dislike young people.
The Tories have not won young people for decades, even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
It is middle aged 40 to 50 year olds they need to win back.
Labour had a 3% lead amongst 25-34s in 2015 and a 29% lead in 2017 and a 16% lead amongst 18-24s in 2015 compared to a 35% lead in 2017.
The Tories had a 36% lead with over 65s in 2017 though compared to a 24% lead in 2015 and a 17% lead with 55 to 64s in 2017 compared to a 6% lead in 2015.
So Labour still beat the Tories with young people in 2015 and 2017 and the Tories beat Labour with old people in both 2015 and 2017 it was just the margins expanded significantly for both.
Those who are 35-40 are referred to now as ‘young people’ (in electoral terms) as I said in my earlier post.
Re the Tories increasing their lead with older voters. That’s all well and good, but under FPTP that made little difference - the Tories ended up losing seats. By contrast Labour’s increased lead with younger voters led to them gaining seats. So the Tories are going to have to close the gap with more than just those 35-44.
Except they are not 35-40 but 35-44 which when combined with the other key 45 to 54 group represents the middle aged voting bracket.
The Tories were just 8 seats from a majority, so 35 to 44s could eliminate that.
That’s how MORI defines it, but my point is that part of that age group are now seen as ‘younger voters.’ If you want to believe that appealing only to 35-44s out of the younger age group will deliver a majority, you can. Just like Tories believed that winning the WWC vote and the Baby Boomers would lead to a significant majority....
Obviously you need some under 30s to win but the Tories will never win a majority of those whereas they can at least tie 35 to 44s as they did in 2015.
Well I did say ‘close the gap’ ‘reduce the gap’ as opposed to ‘win a majority of’.
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
Going to get worse before it gets better.
Worse? How could it possibly be worse? Jehovah! Jehovah!
Brexit hasn't really hit the fan yet. Very little has obviously changed. And when it does.....
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
It's not compulsory
It is, I've been a member of the Tory party for my entire adult life.
Ripe for a change then. If you have to spend so much time wondering why you're still in it, that kind of sends its own message doesn't it? You can still vote for them or help out at elections in some way if you decide they're the best option, but shouldn't membership of the party be for the truly committed? If you no longer feel that commitment, what harm?
A lonely young woman traumatized by a difficult childhood and her increasingly desperate attempts to connect with the people around her is sent into a murderous tailspin.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
I'm irritated by the party's incompetence and political correctness, but see them as better than the alternative.
For since whenever, I (and many other Tories) have been banging on that Labour will be/is bad for the economy, and yet the Tory party are about to instigate the greatest act of economic terrorism I can recall via hard/WTO Brexit.
It is shaking my core values.
Soon I expect cats to chase dogs on this Bizarro world I'm on.
There are things that would cause a resignation which they could not then complain about, but those would be very extreme events, so yeah, May cannot risk a big name causing trouble when they leave.
LBJs dictum about tent pissers doesnt work if they are inside the tent, but shitting all over it.
Oh agreed, but to remain in the tent herself she cannot force them out for shitting in it, as it's not that they would cause her trouble from outside, they'd knock over the tent. They can only go if they pop out themselves to shit.
A lonely young woman traumatized by a difficult childhood and her increasingly desperate attempts to connect with the people around her is sent into a murderous tailspin.
ref army size. I believe there hasn't been a british military death due to enemy action since 2013. I dont sense any appetite for more blairite adventures. So what is army for? I'm not sure old fashioned idea of show of military might works these days.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
I'm irritated by the party's incompetence and political correctness, but see them as better than the alternative.
For since whenever, I (and many other Tories) have been banging on that Labour will be/is bad for the economy, and yet the Tory party are about to instigate the greatest act of economic terrorism I can recall via hard/WTO Brexit.
It is shaking my core values.
Soon I expect cats to chase dogs on this Bizarro world I'm on.
I just hope you don't have Harvey Weinstein on speed dial.
ref army size. I believe there hasn't been a british military death due to enemy action since 2013. I dont sense any appetite for more blairite adventures. So what is army for? I'm not sure old fashioned idea of show of military might works these days.
I feel like we should have enough on hand to credibly and flexibly engage in action, just in case. We're not a superpower, but we are a power enough for that, or should be. It's good for any nation to have the option at least.
ref army size. I believe there hasn't been a british military death due to enemy action since 2013. I dont sense any appetite for more blairite adventures. So what is army for? I'm not sure old fashioned idea of show of military might works these days.
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.
When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.
Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.
He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.
A lonely young woman traumatized by a difficult childhood and her increasingly desperate attempts to connect with the people around her is sent into a murderous tailspin.
Sounds terrible
Written and Directed by - I kid you not - Lucky McKee.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
I'm irritated by the party's incompetence and political correctness, but see them as better than the alternative.
For since whenever, I (and many other Tories) have been banging on that Labour will be/is bad for the economy, and yet the Tory party are about to instigate the greatest act of economic terrorism I can recall via hard/WTO Brexit.
It is shaking my core values.
Soon I expect cats to chase dogs on this Bizarro world I'm on.
Yet, a very large majority of Conservatives wish to leave the EU. As I said, Essex, Kent, the Midlands can no longer be reconciled with Inner London.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!
You really don't know what you're talking about.
I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.
The Lib Dems aren't for me.
Well you have already voted for them in Hallam and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg and Tim Farron, so I am sure they and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!
You really don't know what you're talking about.
I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.
The Lib Dems aren't for me.
Well you have already voted for them and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg, so I am sure he and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)
I find Sir Vince Cable ghastly, he was the worst cabinet minister during the coalition.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
I'm irritated by the party's incompetence and political correctness, but see them as better than the alternative.
For since whenever, I (and many other Tories) have been banging on that Labour will be/is bad for the economy, and yet the Tory party are about to instigate the greatest act of economic terrorism I can recall via hard/WTO Brexit.
It is shaking my core values.
Soon I expect cats to chase dogs on this Bizarro world I'm on.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!
You really don't know what you're talking about.
I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.
The Lib Dems aren't for me.
Well you have already voted for them in Hallam and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg and Tim Farron, so I am sure they and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!
You really don't know what you're talking about.
I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.
The Lib Dems aren't for me.
Well you have already voted for them in Hallam and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg and Tim Farron, so I am sure they and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
I'm irritated by the party's incompetence and political correctness, but see them as better than the alternative.
For since whenever, I (and many other Tories) have been banging on that Labour will be/is bad for the economy, and yet the Tory party are about to instigate the greatest act of economic terrorism I can recall via hard/WTO Brexit.
It is shaking my core values.
Soon I expect cats to chase dogs on this Bizarro world I'm on.
FTA Brexit now.
Nearly as brilliant as your forecast that Boris Johnson would almost certainly be our next PM.
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.
When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.
Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.
He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.
At present. But when May falls, the world will appear different. A safe pair of hands in a very stormy sea.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!
You really don't know what you're talking about.
I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.
The Lib Dems aren't for me.
Well you have already voted for them in Hallam and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg and Tim Farron, so I am sure they and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!
You really don't know what you're talking about.
I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.
The Lib Dems aren't for me.
Well you have already voted for them and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg, so I am sure he and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)
I find Sir Vince Cable ghastly, he was the worst cabinet minister during the coalition.
I find Mark Reckless more appealing.
Yes but you agree with Cable on Brexit but not Reckless so either you accept we are leaving the single market and the EU and be a good little Toryboy and back Brexit or you join the LDs where you can still keep complaining about 'hard Brexit' and praising the EU to your hearts content!
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!
You really don't know what you're talking about.
I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.
The Lib Dems aren't for me.
Well you have already voted for them and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg, so I am sure he and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)
I find Sir Vince Cable ghastly, he was the worst cabinet minister during the coalition.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
I'm irritated by the party's incompetence and political correctness, but see them as better than the alternative.
For since whenever, I (and many other Tories) have been banging on that Labour will be/is bad for the economy, and yet the Tory party are about to instigate the greatest act of economic terrorism I can recall via hard/WTO Brexit.
It is shaking my core values.
Soon I expect cats to chase dogs on this Bizarro world I'm on.
FTA Brexit now.
Nearly as brilliant as your forecast that Boris Johnson would almost certainly be our next PM.
You've gone quiet on that front.
Still not impossible, though I now think it will be Davis.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!
You really don't know what you're talking about.
I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.
The Lib Dems aren't for me.
Well you have already voted for them and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg, so I am sure he and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)
I find Sir Vince Cable ghastly, he was the worst cabinet minister during the coalition.
I find Mark Reckless more appealing.
Yes but you agree with Cable on Brexit but not Reckless so either you accept we are leaving the single market and the EU and be a good little Toryboy and back Brexit or you join the LDs where you can still keep complaining about 'hard Brexit' and praising the EU to your hearts content!
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.
When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.
Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.
He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.
At present. But when May falls, the world will appear different. A safe pair of hands in a very stormy sea.
Hunt is worth watching too.
The Tory membership are not going to pick a Remainer when May goes especially as we will still likely be in a transition period they will want to ensure ends.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
I'm irritated by the party's incompetence and political correctness, but see them as better than the alternative.
For since whenever, I (and many other Tories) have been banging on that Labour will be/is bad for the economy, and yet the Tory party are about to instigate the greatest act of economic terrorism I can recall via hard/WTO Brexit.
It is shaking my core values.
Soon I expect cats to chase dogs on this Bizarro world I'm on.
FTA Brexit now.
Nearly as brilliant as your forecast that Boris Johnson would almost certainly be our next PM.
You've gone quiet on that front.
Still not impossible, though I now think it will be Davis.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!
You really don't know what you're talking about.
I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.
The Lib Dems aren't for me.
Well you have already voted for them and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg, so I am sure he and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)
I find Sir Vince Cable ghastly, he was the worst cabinet minister during the coalition.
I find Mark Reckless more appealing.
Yes but you agree with Cable on Brexit but not Reckless so either you accept we are leaving the single market and the EU and be a good little Toryboy and back Brexit or you join the LDs where you can still keep complaining about 'hard Brexit' and praising the EU to your hearts content!
You should take your head out of your arse.
Cable wants another referendum, I don't.
You still want the single market though which Cable has now effectively prioritised.
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.
When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.
Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.
He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.
At present. But when May falls, the world will appear different. A safe pair of hands in a very stormy sea.
Hunt is worth watching too.
The Tory membership are not going to pick a Remainer when May goes especially as we will still likely be in a transition period they will want to ensure ends.
It depends how May falls and when.
A sane, pro business, scandal-free Minister working to a soft Brexit is the only way to stop Jezza.
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.
When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.
Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.
He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.
At present. But when May falls, the world will appear different. A safe pair of hands in a very stormy sea.
Hunt is worth watching too.
The Tory membership are not going to pick a Remainer when May goes especially as we will still likely be in a transition period they will want to ensure ends.
It depends how May falls and when.
A sane, pro business, scandal-free Minister working to a soft Brexit is the only way to stop Jezza.
@AndyJS here are some key reasons: inter generational unfairness, socially liberal, perception Tories dislike young people.
The Tories have not won young people for decades, even Cameron lost under 35s in 2015.
It is middle aged 40 to 50 year olds they need to win back.
The Conservatives won 45+ age groups. They went further backwards with the under 40s at this GE, they need to win members of that group back and recover some lost ground. In 2015 for example Labour only had a 3% lead among those aged 25-34.
The issue for the Conservatives is the 35-45 age group.
Since time immemorial the Conservatives have struggled with the under 30s.
Makes sense - I'd never voted Tory, then BANG, turned 30 and voted Tory that very year.
You tend to turn from voting Labour to voting Tory when you get married, have a child and buy your first property (unless a landslide election year).
Or begin suffering from Dementia once you reach 65!
ref army size. I believe there hasn't been a british military death due to enemy action since 2013. I dont sense any appetite for more blairite adventures. So what is army for? I'm not sure old fashioned idea of show of military might works these days.
Many years ago I, and several colleagues had a talk along this subject, and apart from being a readily available source for emergencies, there were two main reasons. The military are an extension of political will of government, iron fist in velvet glove sort of thing, for offense and defense of the country. The second is a little more interesting, basically it is there to take the sociopaths out of the mainstream and bring/teach them the disciplines to re-enter normal society at a later time. Or, a more cost efficient way of working rather than bunging them all in prisons.
Boris must be relieved by the front pages - no “Extra 5 years in Iranian Prison after Boris Blunder” - and while I haven’t read the detail these “Paradise Papers” seem pretty thin gruel “Monaco resident avoids tax” is pretty much in “Dig bites man” territory.....
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.
When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.
Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.
He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.
At present. But when May falls, the world will appear different. A safe pair of hands in a very stormy sea.
Hunt is worth watching too.
The Tory membership are not going to pick a Remainer when May goes especially as we will still likely be in a transition period they will want to ensure ends.
It depends how May falls and when.
A sane, pro business, scandal-free Minister working to a soft Brexit is the only way to stop Jezza.
Except it isn't, Survation in June had Hammond taking the Tory voteshare 3% below that May got and Boris and Davis would get and 1% below Rudd would get. He would be the worst choice of the lot to stop Corbyn.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
What Tory party? Is it still in existence?
Colloquially. Given the term is over 350 years old and used to refer to Irish bandits and scofflaws, I don't think the fact it is not the literal name of the Tories anymore really matters.
It's a shame we no longer have the Whigs (except, I'm sure, in minor minor party form somewhere). Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, so dull (if better than endless acronyms as you get in many countries, and our own deal Northern Ireland).
He says his father died in hospital of multiple infections acquired while in that hospital, and goes on to describe this as 'the worst, the most tragic luck. '. Really? Bad luck?
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
What Tory party? Is it still in existence?
Colloquially. Given the term is over 350 years old and used to refer to Irish bandits and scofflaws, I don't think the fact it is not the literal name of the Tories anymore really matters.
It's a shame we no longer have the Whigs (except, I'm sure, in minor minor party form somewhere). Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, so dull (if better than endless acronyms as you get in many countries, and our own deal Northern Ireland).
A pity Michael Fabricant does not stand for Tory leader, then you could have a Whig leading the Tories!
He says his father died in hospital of multiple infections acquired while in that hospital, and goes on to describe this as 'the worst, the most tragic luck. '. Really? Bad luck?
Yes, unless you have found a way of preventing infection absolutely. If so, can you remember us all with your Nobel prize winnings.
ref army size. I believe there hasn't been a british military death due to enemy action since 2013. I dont sense any appetite for more blairite adventures. So what is army for? I'm not sure old fashioned idea of show of military might works these days.
I feel like we should have enough on hand to credibly and flexibly engage in action, just in case. We're not a superpower, but we are a power enough for that, or should be. It's good for any nation to have the option at least.
notice how most of these are islands? Iceland, Samoa and Mauritius. Realistically, if it ever gets to anyone invading us the presence, or absence, of a standing army, navy or airforce will have become irrelevnat.
Maybe we retain nukes as the ultimate insurance policy. The only reasonable use case for a conventional military at scale is for expeditionary fighting on foreign fields. I just don't think we are up for that anytime soon. The truism of the military always planning based on the last couple of wars holds.
Boris must be relieved by the front pages - no “Extra 5 years in Iranian Prison after Boris Blunder” - and while I haven’t read the detail these “Paradise Papers” seem pretty thin gruel “Monaco resident avoids tax” is pretty much in “Dig bites man” territory.....
Pretty stupid of Panorama, and the rest of the news, to lead with the Hamilton story - which is pretty minor, compared to the mass of systematic evasion/avoidance details contained in the papers. Just as with the Queen 'revaluations', supposedly serious news programmes cannot resist the lure of celebrity.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
So are we. Given you voted LD in June and live in a LD v Labour marginal I expect they would welcome you aboard with open arms!
You really don't know what you're talking about. I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party. The Lib Dems aren't for me.
Well you have already voted for them and therefore lost your non Tory virginity to Nick Clegg, so I am sure he and Vince could persuade you to be a member too (in a dry Orange Book way)
I find Sir Vince Cable ghastly, he was the worst cabinet minister during the coalition. I find Mark Reckless more appealing.
Yes but you agree with Cable on Brexit but not Reckless so either you accept we are leaving the single market and the EU and be a good little Toryboy and back Brexit or you join the LDs where you can still keep complaining about 'hard Brexit' and praising the EU to your hearts content!
You should take your head out of your arse. Cable wants another referendum, I don't.
You still want the single market though which Cable has now effectively prioritised.
The Lib Dems want a FIRST referendum on the EU, based on facts and real positions for the future. Cameron`s referendum was a waste of time, a complete sham.
ref army size. I believe there hasn't been a british military death due to enemy action since 2013. I dont sense any appetite for more blairite adventures. So what is army for? I'm not sure old fashioned idea of show of military might works these days.
I feel like we should have enough on hand to credibly and flexibly engage in action, just in case. We're not a superpower, but we are a power enough for that, or should be. It's good for any nation to have the option at least.
notice how most of these are islands? Iceland, Samoa and Mauritius. Realistically, if it ever gets to anyone invading us the presence, or absence, of a standing army, navy or airforce will have become irrelevnat.
Maybe we retain nukes as the ultimate insurance policy. The only reasonable use case for a conventional military at scale is for expeditionary fighting on foreign fields. I just don't think we are up for that anytime soon. The truism of the military always planning based on the last couple of wars holds.
We also have the Falklands and Gibraltar to defend in the unlikely event of another or first invasion and as key members of NATO and a UN Security Council we have humanitarian and peacekeeping and anti terrorism and rogue state obligations abroad.
Ah, so Tim Benson now looks at cartoons online. Great. And Beverley_C, a friend of Tim's? You both seem to have a special feeling for tarantulas. Who would have guessed.
Ah, so Tim Benson now looks at cartoons online. Great. And Beverley_C, a friend of Tim's? You both seem to have a special feeling for tarantulas. Who would have guessed.
Who the hell is Tim Benson? Myself, I just surf the web
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.
When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.
Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.
He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.
At present. But when May falls, the world will appear different. A safe pair of hands in a very stormy sea.
Hunt is worth watching too.
The Tory membership are not going to pick a Remainer when May goes especially as we will still likely be in a transition period they will want to ensure ends.
It depends how May falls and when.
A sane, pro business, scandal-free Minister working to a soft Brexit is the only way to stop Jezza.
Except it isn't, Survation in June had Hammond taking the Tory voteshare 3% below that May got and Boris and Davis would get and 1% below Rudd would get. He would be the worst choice of the lot to stop Corbyn.
You are basing it on current positions, the point is that the collapse of May will take others down and change those positions. May is known to be against Hammond. What finer recognition is needed?
You may well be right though. The Tories may prefer the purity of opposition to winning a GE, but I suspect pragmatism will prevail. Hammond is pragmatism personified.
Ah, so Tim Benson now looks at cartoons online. Great. And Beverley_C, a friend of Tim's? You both seem to have a special feeling for tarantulas. Who would have guessed.
I am afraid that my only interest in tarantulas is that none are anywhere near me. Those tarantulas that get too close will be meeting the business end of my stilettos.
I am friends with everyone on PB except SeanT, some of the persistently ruder posters and the original Tim from Liverpool who posted all sorts of stuff from his mum's basement (or so always believed)
Ah, so Tim Benson now looks at cartoons online. Great. And Beverley_C, a friend of Tim's? You both seem to have a special feeling for tarantulas. Who would have guessed.
I am afraid that my only interest in tarantulas is that none are anywhere near me. Those tarantulas that get too close will be meeting the business end of my stilettos.
I am friends with everyone on PB except SeanT, some of the persistently ruder posters and the original Tim from Liverpool who posted all sorts of stuff from his mum's basement (or so always believed)
When the meter reader opened the cover on my lawn to read the meter one time he found a black widow spider inside. Apparently it's a common place for them to nest. Some time ago a rattlesnake took up residence in a bush at the end of my driveway.
I tried wearing stilettos but kept falling over, and got some odd looks
Ah, so Tim Benson now looks at cartoons online. Great. And Beverley_C, a friend of Tim's? You both seem to have a special feeling for tarantulas. Who would have guessed.
Ah, so Tim Benson now looks at cartoons online. Great. And Beverley_C, a friend of Tim's? You both seem to have a special feeling for tarantulas. Who would have guessed.
I am afraid that my only interest in tarantulas is that none are anywhere near me. Those tarantulas that get too close will be meeting the business end of my stilettos.
I am friends with everyone on PB except SeanT, some of the persistently ruder posters and the original Tim from Liverpool who posted all sorts of stuff from his mum's basement (or so always believed)
I tried wearing stilettos but kept falling over, and got some odd looks
Just practice hun - you will soon get the hang of it x
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.
When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.
Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.
He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.
At present. But when May falls, the world will appear different. A safe pair of hands in a very stormy sea.
Hunt is worth watching too.
The Tory membership are not going to pick a Remainer when May goes especially as we will still likely be in a transition period they will want to ensure ends.
It depends how May falls and when.
A sane, pro business, scandal-free Minister working to a soft Brexit is the only way to stop Jezza.
Except it isn't, Survation in June had Hammond taking the Tory voteshare 3% below that May got and Boris and Davis would get and 1% below Rudd would get. He would be the worst choice of the lot to stop Corbyn.
You are basing it on current positions, the point is that the collapse of May will take others down and change those positions. May is known to be against Hammond. What finer recognition is needed?
You may well be right though. The Tories may prefer the purity of opposition to winning a GE, but I suspect pragmatism will prevail. Hammond is pragmatism personified.
Let’s see how the Budget goes......despite the challenges, I reckon the “safe pair of hands” (in its pre-scandal meaning) has passed to Hunt.....far enough removed from Brexit to be (relatively) uncontaminated....
This is now, without doubt, the worst government of my lifetime. The disgraceful antics of Johnson and Patel, and the PM’s inability to remove either of them confirm that. And yet, the Tories have every chance of winning the next election. Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
I think that a fair cop, this is a rankly incompetent administration.
When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.
Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.
He would not get past the membership and polls worse than DD, Bojo and Amber v Corbyn.
At present. But when May falls, the world will appear different. A safe pair of hands in a very stormy sea.
Hunt is worth watching too.
The Tory membership are not going to pick a Remainer when May goes especially as we will still likely be in a transition period they will want to ensure ends.
It depends how May falls and when.
A sane, pro business, scandal-free Minister working to a soft Brexit is the only way to stop Jezza.
Except it isn't, Survation in June had Hammond taking the Tory voteshare 3% below that May got and Boris and Davis would get and 1% below Rudd would get. He would be the worst choice of the lot to stop Corbyn.
You are basing it on current positions, the point is that the collapse of May will take others down and change those positions. May is known to be against Hammond. What finer recognition is needed?
You may well be right though. The Tories may prefer the purity of opposition to winning a GE, but I suspect pragmatism will prevail. Hammond is pragmatism personified.
May and Hammond were and largely one and the same and as May now moves towards a FTA are moving back in the same direction. The Tories will want a Leaver after May.
As I have already showed you Hammond is not going to beat Corbyn.
For those of you who like the comic book movies, I was driving downtown the other day and 14th St was blocked because they were filming a sequence of the new Avengers movie (not with Steed and Emma).
Thinking about it, the one minister from the last 10 days who should clearly be gone is Ms Patel. Pretending to be on holiday, while actually meeting with foreign heads of state, and then lying about it... And then being caught lying about it.
This is also a fantastic opportunity to bring some new blood into the cabinet - whether JRM, Kwasi Kwarteng or Rory Stewart.
Ah, so Tim Benson now looks at cartoons online. Great. And Beverley_C, a friend of Tim's? You both seem to have a special feeling for tarantulas. Who would have guessed.
Not a bad piece, although he falls into the typical fallacy of believing we've had austerity.
It depends what you mean by austerity. Some areas have seen real cuts although it is true that George Osborne did silently abandon Plan A fairly early on -- perhaps as a result of Ed Balls's hand gestures.
There are things that would cause a resignation which they could not then complain about, but those would be very extreme events, so yeah, May cannot risk a big name causing trouble when they leave.
TND coming round to what we've been saying for months on pb? On the subject of "things" has it been suggested yet by the tinfoil hat brigade that the Tory spreadsheet was designed to put pressure on Boris but got out of hand?
"During most of the previous thirty-odd years, Britain and most of the rich West had been run on a deceitful prospectus. Labour and Tories had argued, and even for the most part believed, that they were governing for the whole nation. But that was tosh. They were governing for themselves and for those who work in the City and the service sector in London and the South-East. They were governing for property owners. They were governing for a highly skilled, internationally mobile elite of corporate executives, bankers and entrepreneurs. This is not revolutionary rhetoric, it is observable fact, which cannot be ignored by left or right."
"During most of the previous thirty-odd years, Britain and most of the rich West had been run on a deceitful prospectus. Labour and Tories had argued, and even for the most part believed, that they were governing for the whole nation. But that was tosh. They were governing for themselves and for those who work in the City and the service sector in London and the South-East. They were governing for property owners. They were governing for a highly skilled, internationally mobile elite of corporate executives, bankers and entrepreneurs. This is not revolutionary rhetoric, it is observable fact, which cannot be ignored by left or right."
The world changed in the last 40 years, not because of the actions of the British government, but because of technology.
In 1977, the number of British authors who had international sales could probably be counted on the fingers of one hand. The City was organised solely around British companies and British savers.
The world globalised, thanks to technology and cheap travel. This was a boon to those with skills and foreign languages, and sucked for those who had neither.
But - to repeat - this was not die to the government running the country for these people, but because the world changed.
Let me take my favourite example. In the US, Fort Dearborn used to employ 130,000 people. It now employs 3,000 - and produces more vehicles. It sucks to be a skiller manual worker in the Great Lakes. But the problems are fundamentally the same as those when the spinning jenny came along; it made a whole class of people redundant.
Our government cannot mandate skilled working class manual jobs. Now, sure, it could do more to encourage them (look at Germany as a good example), but the truth is that more material products can be produced by fewer people. And we, as a nation, are dependent on our ability to produce things the world wants to pay for our raw materials.
I'm spending longer each day wondering why I'm still in the Tory party.
I'm irritated by the party's incompetence and political correctness, but see them as better than the alternative.
For since whenever, I (and many other Tories) have been banging on that Labour will be/is bad for the economy, and yet the Tory party are about to instigate the greatest act of economic terrorism I can recall via hard/WTO Brexit.
It is shaking my core values.
Soon I expect cats to chase dogs on this Bizarro world I'm on.
FTA Brexit now.
Nearly as brilliant as your forecast that Boris Johnson would almost certainly be our next PM.
You've gone quiet on that front.
Could have been worse. He could have tipped Michael Fallon.
"During most of the previous thirty-odd years, Britain and most of the rich West had been run on a deceitful prospectus. Labour and Tories had argued, and even for the most part believed, that they were governing for the whole nation. But that was tosh. They were governing for themselves and for those who work in the City and the service sector in London and the South-East. They were governing for property owners. They were governing for a highly skilled, internationally mobile elite of corporate executives, bankers and entrepreneurs. This is not revolutionary rhetoric, it is observable fact, which cannot be ignored by left or right."
The world changed in the last 40 years, not because of the actions of the British government, but because of technology.
In 1977, the number of British authors who had international sales could probably be counted on the fingers of one hand.
Completely ignoring the rest of an excellent post, and embracing pre-breakfast pedantry, we could play games with that :-). Suspect there were more than 5 UK authors on the NYT Top 100 list at any point in 1977.
JRR Tolkien was no 1 for about 3 months for a start.
Here are the 6 more UK authors selling internationally, in 1977.
CS Lewis Agatha Christie William Shakespeare Malcolm Muggeridge Conan Doyle Edgar Wallace
I am tempted to add Alistair Cooke and Jackie Collins, but they both crossed to the dark side decades earlier, and Jeffrey Archer might not quite have made it by 1977.
Comments
Given the average age at first marriage is now 30 for women and 32 for men and the average age a woman has her first child is also 30 and the average age at which you first buy a property is now 37 it makes sense that on average you first consider voting Tory in your 30s (unless you were an odd Tory boy like me).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8039651/Average-age-of-first-time-brides-is-now-30.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-28329737
https://www.everyday-loans.co.uk/news/37-becomes-the-average-age-to-buy-a-first-home/
When May falls, and it seems only a matter of time, who will be thought competent? Surely not DD, BoJo or Amber. All are too associated.
Perhaps Hammond is worth another look. Remainer of course, but turned Soft Brexiteer, which is the only real alternative to WTO Brexit, and where we may wind up. He has avoided being implicated in the current scandals, and is in one of the great offices of state. He is currently out of favour, but that changes when the leader falls. I reckon the 30 at BFX is becoming value.
IMDB summarizes the movie MAY as -
A lonely young woman traumatized by a difficult childhood and her increasingly desperate attempts to connect with the people around her is sent into a murderous tailspin.
It is shaking my core values.
Soon I expect cats to chase dogs on this Bizarro world I'm on.
I'm either a member of the Tory party or I'm not a member of any other party.
The Lib Dems aren't for me.
I find Mark Reckless more appealing.
https://behindthepaywallblog.wordpress.com/2017/10/28/robert-peston-i-dont-appear-to-be-living-in-the-same-britain-as-much-of-the-rest-of-the-country/
You've gone quiet on that front.
Hunt is worth watching too.
Cable wants another referendum, I don't.
A sane, pro business, scandal-free Minister working to a soft Brexit is the only way to stop Jezza.
Maybe he'll take the opportunity to turn over a new leaf
Colloquially. Given the term is over 350 years old and used to refer to Irish bandits and scofflaws, I don't think the fact it is not the literal name of the Tories anymore really matters.
It's a shame we no longer have the Whigs (except, I'm sure, in minor minor party form somewhere). Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, so dull (if better than endless acronyms as you get in many countries, and our own deal Northern Ireland).
notice how most of these are islands? Iceland, Samoa and Mauritius. Realistically, if it ever gets to anyone invading us the presence, or absence, of a standing army, navy or airforce will have become irrelevnat.
Maybe we retain nukes as the ultimate insurance policy. The only reasonable use case for a conventional military at scale is for expeditionary fighting on foreign fields. I just don't think we are up for that anytime soon. The truism of the military always planning based on the last couple of wars holds.
Evolution in action?
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/things-go-bump-night-riyadh-1511882449
Notably claiming the Lebanese PM was instructed to resign while visiting Riyadh.
You may well be right though. The Tories may prefer the purity of opposition to winning a GE, but I suspect pragmatism will prevail. Hammond is pragmatism personified.
I am friends with everyone on PB except SeanT, some of the persistently ruder posters and the original Tim from Liverpool who posted all sorts of stuff from his mum's basement (or so always believed)
After all it is a mutant spider with a human face.
I tried wearing stilettos but kept falling over, and got some odd looks
https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/927690861642702848
As I have already showed you Hammond is not going to beat Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/927707875526537216
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5055923/Arrested-Saudi-princes-photographed-five-star-prison.html
This is also a fantastic opportunity to bring some new blood into the cabinet - whether JRM, Kwasi Kwarteng or Rory Stewart.
"During most of the previous thirty-odd years, Britain and most of the rich West had been run on a deceitful prospectus. Labour and Tories had argued, and even for the most part believed, that they were governing for the whole nation. But that was tosh. They were governing for themselves and for those who work in the City and the service sector in London and the South-East. They were governing for property owners. They were governing for a highly skilled, internationally mobile elite of corporate executives, bankers and entrepreneurs. This is not revolutionary rhetoric, it is observable fact, which cannot be ignored by left or right."
https://behindthepaywallblog.wordpress.com/2017/10/28/robert-peston-i-dont-appear-to-be-living-in-the-same-britain-as-much-of-the-rest-of-the-country/
The world changed in the last 40 years, not because of the actions of the British government, but because of technology.
In 1977, the number of British authors who had international sales could probably be counted on the fingers of one hand. The City was organised solely around British companies and British savers.
The world globalised, thanks to technology and cheap travel. This was a boon to those with skills and foreign languages, and sucked for those who had neither.
But - to repeat - this was not die to the government running the country for these people, but because the world changed.
Let me take my favourite example. In the US, Fort Dearborn used to employ 130,000 people. It now employs 3,000 - and produces more vehicles. It sucks to be a skiller manual worker in the Great Lakes. But the problems are fundamentally the same as those when the spinning jenny came along; it made a whole class of people redundant.
Our government cannot mandate skilled working class manual jobs. Now, sure, it could do more to encourage them (look at Germany as a good example), but the truth is that more material products can be produced by fewer people. And we, as a nation, are dependent on our ability to produce things the world wants to pay for our raw materials.
JRR Tolkien was no 1 for about 3 months for a start.
Here are the 6 more UK authors selling internationally, in 1977.
CS Lewis
Agatha Christie
William Shakespeare
Malcolm Muggeridge
Conan Doyle
Edgar Wallace
I am tempted to add Alistair Cooke and Jackie Collins, but they both crossed to the dark side decades earlier, and Jeffrey Archer might not quite have made it by 1977.