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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When will there be the next Cabinet resignation? William Hill’s new market

These are indeed turbulent times at Westminster with two Cabinet exits in the space of a week. Now Hill’s have opened a market on not WHO will be the next to go but WHEN. These are the options and odds:

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Beverley_C

First!!!

Unlike Boris and Priti

GIN1138

Second - Like Remain!

TheScreamingEagles

Thank god JohnO isn't a member of the cabinet, he's a Balliol boy.

MarqueeMark

On topic, here's hoping we don't in short order get the headline "Penny Dreadful"......

OldKingCole

My claim to be first seems to have vanished. Boris will have to be sacked. He’s got too much ‘front’...... more than Blackpool ...... to resign, however much a Horlicks he makes of things!

FrancisUrquhart

OH FFS, this paradise paper stuff is real barrel scraping,

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/09/revealed-scheme-gary-lineker-tax-barbados-home?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

You have to read it really carefully to find that he didn’t do this to really avoid tax.

Nobody would go through setting up and managing a company with sole aim of avoiding 3.5% of stamp duty / transfer tax on a holiday home. The lawyers fees and management of the company etc will eat most of that. *

It is down to the fact in the future you are restricted by law there on how much of that money you could take out of the country. No idiot given the choice would potentially want to have a load of money locked in another country if you sold your house.

* In comparison, these schemes of company purchases of homes have become attractive in the UK because of the 12% rate and council tax etc.

DecrepitJohnL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Thank god JohnO isn't a member of the cabinet, he's a Balliol boy.

Rory Stewart was at Balliol. I take back what I said about Tim Nice-but-dim in the last thread; clearly this is why Theresa May passed him over for promotion.

AlastairMeeks

I'm not sure that the government's reputation is enhanced by replacing one Brexit-loving Secretary of State who seemed to have some difficulty with the concept of candour with another one who unblushingly told a straight untruth in an effort to convert the public to her mad cause.

Morris_Dancer

Well, I may not be first, but at least I'm not the hairy princess....

OldKingCole

Guardian website has just added this: Ref https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/nov/09/theresa-may-under-pressure-to-replace-patel-with-brexit-enthusiast-politics-live#5a045f1e2be44207484bf72b_

'Here is the full quote from Boris Johnson on Fox News about President Trump. The presenter put it to Johnson that Trump was getting a lot of negative press in the US, and he asked how people outside America saw him. He replied:

I think you’ve got to realise that the American president is just one of the huge, great global brands, and he is penetrating corners of the global consciousness that I think few other presidents have ever done. So his method of tweeting earlier in the morning, no matter how rambunctious those tweets may be, they are communicating with people. And, yes, a lot of people don’t like it. But a lot of people relate to it. And in an age when people have been turned off politics, it is more direct and it’s more communicative than a lot of previous presidents have managed.’


Just because he’s a creep.

Richard_Nabavi

Although it's very hard to tell from the outside, not least because it's very hard to figure out who exactly is in charge in Iran, I think there is a possibility that the Foreign Office might be able to secure Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe's release. That would at a stroke transform Boris' position, in the short term at least.

YBarddCwsc

Let’s see, I think Carwyn is next ...

Compare & contrast Prescott’s son with Carl Sergeant.

In the first, Labour met queries with a terse "no comment while an investigation is underway”

In the second, Carwyn was trumpeting about it on Welsh TV. That is what will do for him.

FrancisUrquhart

I get the feeling the Guardian just ran a script with names from Whos Who and any that were found in the documents they have written a piece on them.

Richard_Nabavi

FrancisUrquhart said:

I get the feeling the Guardian just ran a script with names from Whos Who and any that were found in the documents they have written a piece on them.

Unless they are known Labour supporters, of course.

FrancisUrquhart

Richard_Nabavi said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I get the feeling the Guardian just ran a script with names from Whos Who and any that were found in the documents they have written a piece on them.

Unless they are known Labour supporters, of course.

LOL. Although something tells me think Gary Lineker doesn't vote Tory.

I am all for exposing the tax dodgers and the second Panorama programme did spend a fair bit of time highlighting a guy responsible for a very dodgy looking scheme. But all this stuff of Justin Timberlake set up in a company in the Bahamas, to errrhh buy a golf course in the Bahamas, Gary Lineker the same for a holiday home, JRM had shares in a company he worked for is just bollocks.

Big_G_NorthWales

YBarddCwsc said:

Let’s see, I think Carwyn is next ...

Compare & contrast Prescott’s son with Carl Sergeant.

In the first, Labour met queries with a terse "no comment while an investigation is underway”

In the second, Carwyn was trumpeting about it on Welsh TV. That is what will do for him.

I heard Carwyn's statement and was very uneasy with his comments

Mexicanpete

Richard_Nabavi said:

Although it's very hard to tell from the outside, not least because it's very hard to figure out who exactly is in charge in Iran, I think there is a possibility that the Foreign Office might be able to secure Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe's release. That would at a stroke transform Boris' position, in the short term at least.

This notion that Boris' perceived 'gaffe' is in reality, a bordering on genius strategy to release Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe seems to be gaining traction.

Big_G_NorthWales

Richard_Nabavi said:

Although it's very hard to tell from the outside, not least because it's very hard to figure out who exactly is in charge in Iran, I think there is a possibility that the Foreign Office might be able to secure Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe's release. That would at a stroke transform Boris' position, in the short term at least.

I think Boris needs to get on a plane to Tehran

Big_G_NorthWales

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Let’s see, I think Carwyn is next ...

Compare & contrast Prescott’s son with Carl Sergeant.

In the first, Labour met queries with a terse "no comment while an investigation is underway”

In the second, Carwyn was trumpeting about it on Welsh TV. That is what will do for him.

I heard Carwyn's statement and was very uneasy with his comments

Carwyn Jones to make public statement at 4.00pm

IanB2

Richard_Nabavi said:

Although it's very hard to tell from the outside, not least because it's very hard to figure out who exactly is in charge in Iran, I think there is a possibility that the Foreign Office might be able to secure Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe's release. That would at a stroke transform Boris' position, in the short term at least.

Provided the quid quo pro is seen as reasonable. Or, more likely, kept as a dark secret.

anothernick

OldKingCole said:

My claim to be first seems to have vanished. Boris will have to be sacked. He’s got too much ‘front’...... more than Blackpool ...... to resign, however much a Horlicks he makes of things!

Boris is both a narcissist and a wrecker - if he is sacked he will try to ensure the government goes with him.

Popcorn will be required.

OldKingCole

Mexicanpete said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Although it's very hard to tell from the outside, not least because it's very hard to figure out who exactly is in charge in Iran, I think there is a possibility that the Foreign Office might be able to secure Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe's release. That would at a stroke transform Boris' position, in the short term at least.

This notion that Boris' perceived 'gaffe' is in reality, a bordering on genius strategy to release Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe seems to be gaining traction.

I hope you’re right, but I also suspect that if you’ll believe that .....

YBarddCwsc

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Let’s see, I think Carwyn is next ...

Compare & contrast Prescott’s son with Carl Sergeant.

In the first, Labour met queries with a terse "no comment while an investigation is underway”

In the second, Carwyn was trumpeting about it on Welsh TV. That is what will do for him.

I heard Carwyn's statement and was very uneasy with his comments

I think -- one way or another -- it is the end for Carwyn. He wants to go, and there is an irresistible push coming.

This is a real problem for Welsh Labour, because Carwyn was very good at keeping the balls in the air.

The long-standing rumour is that he wants Ken Skates to succeed him -- the very epitome of a latte-swilling, Oxbridge vowelled, New Labour politician.

Big_G_NorthWales

YBarddCwsc said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Let’s see, I think Carwyn is next ...

Compare & contrast Prescott’s son with Carl Sergeant.

In the first, Labour met queries with a terse "no comment while an investigation is underway”

In the second, Carwyn was trumpeting about it on Welsh TV. That is what will do for him.

I heard Carwyn's statement and was very uneasy with his comments

I think -- one way or another -- it is the end for Carwyn. He wants to go, and there is an irresistible push coming.

This is a real problem for Welsh Labour, because Carwyn was very good at keeping the balls in the air.

The long-standing rumour is that he wants Ken Skates to succeed him -- the very epitome of a latte-swilling, Oxbridge vowelled, New Labour politician.

And the report by Guido today, if true, is deeply worrying

Tissue_Price

Not easy to identify the value here, though if there is any I think it's likely to be in the shorter prices. (Yes, the book is 130%, but that doesn't mean there can't be value somewhere).

April or later would stand out but for the fact that Downing Street must be tempted to carry out a wider-ranging reshuffle (NB the bet is "Leave Post" on WH's website, not "Resign")

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/11983342/When+Will+The+Next+Cabinet+Minister+Leave+Their+Post.html

oxfordsimon

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Let’s see, I think Carwyn is next ...

Compare & contrast Prescott’s son with Carl Sergeant.

In the first, Labour met queries with a terse "no comment while an investigation is underway”

In the second, Carwyn was trumpeting about it on Welsh TV. That is what will do for him.

I heard Carwyn's statement and was very uneasy with his comments

Carwyn Jones to make public statement at 4.00pm

I hope that is to announce his resignation. He got things badly wrong with Carl Sargeant. He has to acknowledge that and step aside. Whether or not he was directly responsible - he has to take responsibility for what was done in his name.

A party leader who effectively pushes a colleague into a position where suicide is considered, let alone acted upon, cannot last.

Mexicanpete

OldKingCole said:

Mexicanpete said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Although it's very hard to tell from the outside, not least because it's very hard to figure out who exactly is in charge in Iran, I think there is a possibility that the Foreign Office might be able to secure Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe's release. That would at a stroke transform Boris' position, in the short term at least.

This notion that Boris' perceived 'gaffe' is in reality, a bordering on genius strategy to release Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe seems to be gaining traction.

I hope you’re right, but I also suspect that if you’ll believe that .....

I don't believe that for a moment, but many people now seem to be jumping on that bus!

oxfordsimon

Skates has the air of someone with all the sincerity of Blair at his worst.

TheScreamingEagles

I guess I should be filling my Damian Green as next PM bet slips in the same place as my Sir Michael Fallon as next PM bet slips ?

IanB2

A self correction from the previous thread - the actual figures for average stay in care homes are slightly less than 1.5 years for nursing homes and slightly less 2.5 years for residential care.

My recollection that lower figures than these were being given during the GE debate on the 'dementia tax' appears to be wrong, or at least I cannot find these using a quick Google search.

SandyRentool

YBarddCwsc said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Let’s see, I think Carwyn is next ...

Compare & contrast Prescott’s son with Carl Sergeant.

In the first, Labour met queries with a terse "no comment while an investigation is underway”

In the second, Carwyn was trumpeting about it on Welsh TV. That is what will do for him.

I heard Carwyn's statement and was very uneasy with his comments

I think -- one way or another -- it is the end for Carwyn. He wants to go, and there is an irresistible push coming.

This is a real problem for Welsh Labour, because Carwyn was very good at keeping the balls in the air.

The long-standing rumour is that he wants Ken Skates to succeed him -- the very epitome of a latte-swilling, Oxbridge vowelled, New Labour politician.

Please, please; lattes are sipped, not swilled!

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/ap/status/928627916401004544

Richard_Nabavi

SandyRentool said:

Please, please; lattes are sipped, not swilled!

Perhaps they do things differently in Cardiff.

Scott_P

Potential foreign diplomatic crisis brewing. Lucky we have such a top team...

Scott_P

@EmilyPurser: Just asked @BorisJohnson if he's worried Iranian state TV now quoting him - still brushing it off, saying "we have some difficult consular cases in Iran and we are working on all of them" twitter.com/SkyNews/status…

TheScreamingEagles

Interesting choice of picture by George Osborne CH.

https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/928627728798007302

OldKingCole

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Let’s see, I think Carwyn is next ...

Compare & contrast Prescott’s son with Carl Sergeant.

In the first, Labour met queries with a terse "no comment while an investigation is underway”

In the second, Carwyn was trumpeting about it on Welsh TV. That is what will do for him.

I heard Carwyn's statement and was very uneasy with his comments

I think -- one way or another -- it is the end for Carwyn. He wants to go, and there is an irresistible push coming.

This is a real problem for Welsh Labour, because Carwyn was very good at keeping the balls in the air.

The long-standing rumour is that he wants Ken Skates to succeed him -- the very epitome of a latte-swilling, Oxbridge vowelled, New Labour politician.

And the report by Guido today, if true, is deeply worrying

Yes, very nasty, especially in the circumstances. Can’t quite see Jones wanting a 'a latte-swilling, Oxbridge vowelled, New Labour politician’ to succeed hime, but I don’t really know enough about Welsh politics.

Big_G_NorthWales

Scott_P said:

Potential foreign diplomatic crisis brewing. Lucky we have such a top team...

The potential for a very serious situation involving Saudi, Israel, Iran and the rest of the middle east is there for all to see

Big_G_NorthWales

Penny just walked into no 10

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/928603939783639040

Scott_P

@youngvulgarian: Why do civil servants avoid the probable next secretary of state for International Development in narrow corridors?

Because one does not simply walk into Mordaunt.

Yorkcity

fpt

rottenborough said:
» show previous quotes
They could start with the Carers Allowance, which is a disgrace.

£62.70p a week and a credit for national insurance towards a state pension.My daughter had to give up work to look after her severely disabled child.
Flag Quote · Off Topic

welshowl

Richard_Nabavi said:

SandyRentool said:

Please, please; lattes are sipped, not swilled!

Perhaps they do things differently in Cardiff.

Ken Skates represents Clwyd South. I imagine they dip their bara brith in instant and wring it out over the saucer up there....

oxfordsimon

If, as and when Boris is forced out (which I feel is probably inevitable now), who is the most likely replacement?

Needs to be solid, reliable, good at detail, decent instincts and able to get to grips with things the minute they walk through the door.

Not many of them round the table at the moment.

Mexicanpete

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Let’s see, I think Carwyn is next ...

Compare & contrast Prescott’s son with Carl Sergeant.

In the first, Labour met queries with a terse "no comment while an investigation is underway”

In the second, Carwyn was trumpeting about it on Welsh TV. That is what will do for him.

I heard Carwyn's statement and was very uneasy with his comments

Whereas I still believe that protocol was followed to a point, Jones' statement on Monday was ill-judged and unwise.

TheScreamingEagles

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

OldKingCole

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Let’s see, I think Carwyn is next ...

Compare & contrast Prescott’s son with Carl Sergeant.

In the first, Labour met queries with a terse "no comment while an investigation is underway”

In the second, Carwyn was trumpeting about it on Welsh TV. That is what will do for him.

I heard Carwyn's statement and was very uneasy with his comments

I think -- one way or another -- it is the end for Carwyn. He wants to go, and there is an irresistible push coming.

This is a real problem for Welsh Labour, because Carwyn was very good at keeping the balls in the air.

The long-standing rumour is that he wants Ken Skates to succeed him -- the very epitome of a latte-swilling, Oxbridge vowelled, New Labour politician.

And the report by Guido today, if true, is deeply worrying

Yes, very nasty, especially in the circumstances. Can’t quite see Jones wanting a 'a latte-swilling, Oxbridge vowelled, New Labour politician’ to succeed hime, but I don’t really know enough about Welsh politics.

Having looked him up in more detail he doesn’t look as unsuitable as might at first appear.

TheScreamingEagles

oxfordsimon said:

If, as and when Boris is forced out (which I feel is probably inevitable now), who is the most likely replacement?

Needs to be solid, reliable, good at detail, decent instincts and able to get to grips with things the minute they walk through the door.

Not many of them round the table at the moment.

Jeremy Hunt.

welshowl

oxfordsimon said:

If, as and when Boris is forced out (which I feel is probably inevitable now), who is the most likely replacement?

Needs to be solid, reliable, good at detail, decent instincts and able to get to grips with things the minute they walk through the door.

Not many of them round the table at the moment.

William Hague your time has come.....

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Simon, Gove?

oxfordsimon

welshowl said:

oxfordsimon said:

If, as and when Boris is forced out (which I feel is probably inevitable now), who is the most likely replacement?

Needs to be solid, reliable, good at detail, decent instincts and able to get to grips with things the minute they walk through the door.

Not many of them round the table at the moment.

William Hague your time has come.....

I thought about that the other day - would it work having a Foreign Secretary in the Lords? Didn't work out that well for Lord Carrington back in the day. Hague would knock some heads together - that is for sure.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/928632879550287872

CarlottaVance

TheScreamingEagles said:

I guess I should be filling my Damian Green as next PM bet slips in the same place as my Sir Michael Fallon as next PM bet slips ?

Has the Cabinet Office reported?

oxfordsimon

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Simon, Gove?

I think he would be my candidate under the current circumstances. Though perhaps I might be tempted to move Davis to FCO and put Gove in charge of the negotiations.

welshowl

oxfordsimon said:

welshowl said:

oxfordsimon said:

If, as and when Boris is forced out (which I feel is probably inevitable now), who is the most likely replacement?

Needs to be solid, reliable, good at detail, decent instincts and able to get to grips with things the minute they walk through the door.

Not many of them round the table at the moment.

William Hague your time has come.....

I thought about that the other day - would it work having a Foreign Secretary in the Lords? Didn't work out that well for Lord Carrington back in the day. Hague would knock some heads together - that is for sure.

Well it was working fine till Galtieri got involved. No constitutional reason why not.

Actually I think Hague would be the perfect fit for PM right now, the reluctant remainer that the right of the Tories respect and the rest of the country and the EU knows is competent?

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

Given the alternative was May, I rather assumed that was how you would have jumped too.....

oxfordsimon

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/928632879550287872

Perhaps she is waiting for him to implode - far harder for him to play the martyr card at a later date if he self-destructs rather than being sacked.

Theuniondivvie

Cock, cock, cock, cock, cock, cock.

The wit & wisdom of Penny.

She's a homeopathy merchant 'n' all.

TheScreamingEagles

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

Given the alternative was May, I rather assumed that was how you would have jumped too.....

Leadsom would have been worse than May.

oxfordsimon

welshowl said:

oxfordsimon said:

welshowl said:

oxfordsimon said:

If, as and when Boris is forced out (which I feel is probably inevitable now), who is the most likely replacement?

Needs to be solid, reliable, good at detail, decent instincts and able to get to grips with things the minute they walk through the door.

Not many of them round the table at the moment.

William Hague your time has come.....

I thought about that the other day - would it work having a Foreign Secretary in the Lords? Didn't work out that well for Lord Carrington back in the day. Hague would knock some heads together - that is for sure.

Well it was working fine till Galtieri got involved. No constitutional reason why not.

Actually I think Hague would be the perfect fit for PM right now, the reluctant remainer that the right of the Tories respect and the rest of the country and ythe EU knows is competent?

Hague was always a politician who rose to prominence too young. Had he waited, his chances of becoming PM would have been far greater.

PMQs with the PM in the Lords would be very different!

oxfordsimon

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

Given the alternative was May, I rather assumed that was how you would have jumped too.....

Leadsom would have been worse than May.

And still would be worse. Far worse.

rkrkrk

In All out War: Gove planned to be Chancellor, Head of Brexit negotiations and in charge of civil service reform.

Leaving aside the ridiculous workload that would have left him, I think that shows the jobs he wants.

I suspect therefore he would rather take Head of Brexit than FCO.
Perhaps David Davis could be persuaded to switch to FCO?

As an aside - I did enjoy all out war a lot... gripping read in places, full of juicy gossip on Tory rivalries. Felt it was a bit patchier on the Labour stuff where I suspect the author had weaker sources.

OldKingCole

Theuniondivvie said:

Cock, cock, cock, cock, cock, cock.

The wit & wisdom of Penny.

She's a homeopathy merchant 'n' all.

On current form, someone with an Armed Forces background will be very suitable for the DfID

FrancisUrquhart

Saudi Arabia's attorney general says at least $100bn (£76bn) has been misused through systemic corruption and embezzlement in recent decades.

Sheikh Saud al-Mojeb said 199 people were being held for questioning as part of a sweeping anti-corruption drive that began on Saturday night.

OldKingCole

oxfordsimon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

Given the alternative was May, I rather assumed that was how you would have jumped too.....

Leadsom would have been worse than May.

And still would be worse. Far worse.

In what sense?

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

Given the alternative was May, I rather assumed that was how you would have jumped too.....

Leadsom would have been worse than May.

Well, there's an admission.

So Theresa May was the best Prime Minister on offer at the time.

Welcome to the club.

rkrkrk

oxfordsimon said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/928632879550287872

Perhaps she is waiting for him to implode - far harder for him to play the martyr card at a later date if he self-destructs rather than being sacked.

Isn't this a pretty good implosion?

The presumed Mordaunt hiring suggests she feels she needs a careful balance of leavers and remainers.

And to be honest - perhaps she has taken soundings and knows Boris doesn't have the votes to challenge her.

Whereas a replacement Brexiteer might.

OldKingCole

oxfordsimon said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/928632879550287872

Perhaps she is waiting for him to implode - far harder for him to play the martyr card at a later date if he self-destructs rather than being sacked.

Could he be swapped for poor Mrs Ratcliffe?

Not funny, I know.

FrancisUrquhart

Colombian police have discovered 12 tonnes of cocaine in the largest single drug seizure in the country's history.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/41926140/this-is-the-largest-single-drug-seizure-in-colombia-s-history

About a weeks worth of usage in Hollywood then...

oxfordsimon

OldKingCole said:

oxfordsimon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

Given the alternative was May, I rather assumed that was how you would have jumped too.....

Leadsom would have been worse than May.

And still would be worse. Far worse.

In what sense?

Her tone of voice - never less than patronising. Her presentational style is that of a 1950s school deputy head. She just doesn't cut it as a leader and her obvious ambition is not attractive to her colleagues or the voters.

She is one of the weakest people to sit round the Cabinet table for some time.

TheScreamingEagles

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

Given the alternative was May, I rather assumed that was how you would have jumped too.....

Leadsom would have been worse than May.

Well, there's an admission.

So Theresa May was the best Prime Minister on offer at the time.

Welcome to the club.

Nah.

Mexicanpete

oxfordsimon said:

If, as and when Boris is forced out (which I feel is probably inevitable now), who is the most likely replacement?

Needs to be solid, reliable, good at detail, decent instincts and able to get to grips with things the minute they walk through the door.

Not many of them round the table at the moment.

Boris is going nowhere, except perhaps No10! Mrs May cannot afford to lose anyone else now, she had her chance this week and she bottled it.

oxfordsimon

rkrkrk said:

oxfordsimon said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/928632879550287872

Perhaps she is waiting for him to implode - far harder for him to play the martyr card at a later date if he self-destructs rather than being sacked.

Isn't this a pretty good implosion?

The presumed Mordaunt hiring suggests she feels she needs a careful balance of leavers and remainers.

And to be honest - perhaps she has taken soundings and knows Boris doesn't have the votes to challenge her.

Whereas a replacement Brexiteer might.

It is pretty close.

But I can see Boris just getting frustrated and lashing out at a journalist - and that being the end of it.

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

Colombian police have discovered 12 tonnes of cocaine in the largest single drug seizure in the country's history.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/41926140/this-is-the-largest-single-drug-seizure-in-colombia-s-history

About a weeks worth of usage in Hollywood then...

The materiality of all drug seizures should be measured against the street price. If that is not going up nothing has been achieved.

FrancisUrquhart

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Colombian police have discovered 12 tonnes of cocaine in the largest single drug seizure in the country's history.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/41926140/this-is-the-largest-single-drug-seizure-in-colombia-s-history

About a weeks worth of usage in Hollywood then...

The materiality of all drug seizures should be measured against the street price. If that is not going up nothing has been achieved.

It would seem like a good piece of research to do...

Mexicanpete

oxfordsimon said:

rkrkrk said:

oxfordsimon said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/928632879550287872

Perhaps she is waiting for him to implode - far harder for him to play the martyr card at a later date if he self-destructs rather than being sacked.

Isn't this a pretty good implosion?

The presumed Mordaunt hiring suggests she feels she needs a careful balance of leavers and remainers.

And to be honest - perhaps she has taken soundings and knows Boris doesn't have the votes to challenge her.

Whereas a replacement Brexiteer might.

It is pretty close.

But I can see Boris just getting frustrated and lashing out at a journalist - and that being the end of it.

You may have a point there. If looks could kill, Monday's exchange with Mr Johnson, would have spelled the end for Mrs Bucket.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

The best that can be said about that is the someone with exceptionally poor judgment will fit right in around this cabinet table.

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Colombian police have discovered 12 tonnes of cocaine in the largest single drug seizure in the country's history.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/41926140/this-is-the-largest-single-drug-seizure-in-colombia-s-history

About a weeks worth of usage in Hollywood then...

The materiality of all drug seizures should be measured against the street price. If that is not going up nothing has been achieved.

It would seem like a good piece of research to do...

Not if you don’t want to prove that the war on drugs is over and we lost.

Roger

FrancisUrquhart said:

Saudi Arabia's attorney general says at least $100bn (£76bn) has been misused through systemic corruption and embezzlement in recent decades.

Sheikh Saud al-Mojeb said 199 people were being held for questioning as part of a sweeping anti-corruption drive that began on Saturday night.

Can chopped off heads be recycled?

AlastairMeeks

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Colombian police have discovered 12 tonnes of cocaine in the largest single drug seizure in the country's history.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/41926140/this-is-the-largest-single-drug-seizure-in-colombia-s-history

About a weeks worth of usage in Hollywood then...

The materiality of all drug seizures should be measured against the street price. If that is not going up nothing has been achieved.

It would seem like a good piece of research to do...

"And that, your honour, is the case for the defence"

david_herdson

rkrkrk said:

oxfordsimon said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/928632879550287872

Perhaps she is waiting for him to implode - far harder for him to play the martyr card at a later date if he self-destructs rather than being sacked.

Isn't this a pretty good implosion?

The presumed Mordaunt hiring suggests she feels she needs a careful balance of leavers and remainers.

And to be honest - perhaps she has taken soundings and knows Boris doesn't have the votes to challenge her.

Whereas a replacement Brexiteer might.

If she is making those sort of calculations then she is barely surviving, never mind leading. Apart from anything else, that logic leads to a cabinet deliberately shorn of talent, which is nothing better than a lingering death.

Boris should go. If she wants to avoid a leadership challenge (which doesn't involve an opponent to begin with, let's remember, other than in the minds of those gaming out how the process might end), she needs to simply display strong and stable leadership.

TheScreamingEagles

Bring back Dave and his stable cabinets.

https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/928638843502383104

david_herdson

oxfordsimon said:

welshowl said:

oxfordsimon said:

If, as and when Boris is forced out (which I feel is probably inevitable now), who is the most likely replacement?

Needs to be solid, reliable, good at detail, decent instincts and able to get to grips with things the minute they walk through the door.

Not many of them round the table at the moment.

William Hague your time has come.....

I thought about that the other day - would it work having a Foreign Secretary in the Lords? Didn't work out that well for Lord Carrington back in the day. Hague would knock some heads together - that is for sure.

Only because of events. In terms of doing the job, it worked well enough - though a ForSec in the Lords really needs a cabinet-level No 2 in the Commons to be able to answer there.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bring back Dave and his stable cabinets.

https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/928638843502383104

Jeremy Hunt, the Arsene Wenger of the government...

DavidL

david_herdson said:

oxfordsimon said:

welshowl said:

oxfordsimon said:

If, as and when Boris is forced out (which I feel is probably inevitable now), who is the most likely replacement?

Needs to be solid, reliable, good at detail, decent instincts and able to get to grips with things the minute they walk through the door.

Not many of them round the table at the moment.

William Hague your time has come.....

I thought about that the other day - would it work having a Foreign Secretary in the Lords? Didn't work out that well for Lord Carrington back in the day. Hague would knock some heads together - that is for sure.

Only because of events. In terms of doing the job, it worked well enough - though a ForSec in the Lords really needs a cabinet-level No 2 in the Commons to be able to answer there.

Hague has been very clear that he is finished with front line politics. I really can’t see him coming back.

FF43

Leadsom's march on parliament. Theresa Villiers literally clutching her pearls ...

And they are all barking....

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/750979473277943808

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

tpfkar

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Although it's very hard to tell from the outside, not least because it's very hard to figure out who exactly is in charge in Iran, I think there is a possibility that the Foreign Office might be able to secure Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe's release. That would at a stroke transform Boris' position, in the short term at least.

I think Boris needs to get on a plane to Tehran

If only so we can all track the flight on FlightRadar.

oxfordsimon

david_herdson said:

oxfordsimon said:

welshowl said:

oxfordsimon said:

If, as and when Boris is forced out (which I feel is probably inevitable now), who is the most likely replacement?

Needs to be solid, reliable, good at detail, decent instincts and able to get to grips with things the minute they walk through the door.

Not many of them round the table at the moment.

William Hague your time has come.....

I thought about that the other day - would it work having a Foreign Secretary in the Lords? Didn't work out that well for Lord Carrington back in the day. Hague would knock some heads together - that is for sure.

Only because of events. In terms of doing the job, it worked well enough - though a ForSec in the Lords really needs a cabinet-level No 2 in the Commons to be able to answer there.

I know it did work - and it happened with DTI (or whatever it was then) with Lord Young and Ken Clarke as a double act IIRC

The only other time in recent years was the mess when Blair tried to abolish the Lord Chancellor and replace it with SoS for Constitutional Affairs - so you had Charlie Falconer.

But I am not sure that it would be seen as an appropriate step to take now - even though there is plenty of precedent that it can work.

midwinter

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

Given the alternative was May, I rather assumed that was how you would have jumped too.....

Leadsom would have been worse than May.

Well, there's an admission.

So Theresa May was the best Prime Minister on offer at the time.

Welcome to the club.

In the same way that David Moyes was possibly the best manager to take over at Man Utd in 2013?

AlastairMeeks

midwinter said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

Given the alternative was May, I rather assumed that was how you would have jumped too.....

Leadsom would have been worse than May.

Well, there's an admission.

So Theresa May was the best Prime Minister on offer at the time.

Welcome to the club.

In the same way that David Moyes was possibly the best manager to take over at Man Utd in 2013?

It's like arguing about who's the best singer in the Saturdays.

dixiedean

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

Potential foreign diplomatic crisis brewing. Lucky we have such a top team...

The potential for a very serious situation involving Saudi, Israel, Iran and the rest of the middle east is there for all to see

Pray God we stay out! And I mean truly neutral.

TheScreamingEagles

AlastairMeeks said:

midwinter said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

Given the alternative was May, I rather assumed that was how you would have jumped too.....

Leadsom would have been worse than May.

Well, there's an admission.

So Theresa May was the best Prime Minister on offer at the time.

Welcome to the club.

In the same way that David Moyes was possibly the best manager to take over at Man Utd in 2013?

It's like arguing about who's the best singer in the Saturdays.

Una or Frankie.

Big_G_NorthWales

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

Potential foreign diplomatic crisis brewing. Lucky we have such a top team...

The potential for a very serious situation involving Saudi, Israel, Iran and the rest of the middle east is there for all to see

Pray God we stay out! And I mean truly neutral.

+1

Roger

midwinter said:

Roger said:

Why do Brexiteers always remind me of Millwall supporters....

WE DONT LIKE TO BE PUSHED AROUND. WE"RE ENGLISH AND WE DO WHAT WE WANT!

Thank God for the Metropolitan elite or we really would be pariahs

That sort of attitude and the sneering condescension towards working class people in areas of high EU immigration that led to the Leave vote.
I voted Remain because I wanted Cameron and Osborne to stay and consider the economic benefits of the EU trump the disadvantages. However next time you're in Sussex take a stroll through the grimy streets of Bognor Regis, and you might understand the reason why people were happy to vote Leave.

It is well known among our soon to be ex EU partners that the country divided roughly in half. As a shorthand they were told that the educated city dwellers voted REMAIN whereas the less well educated country bumpkins voted LEAVE.

So when the English urinate on the beaches of Benidorm or vomit on the side of Tavernas in Crete it's assumed they're the country bumpkins they didn't previously know existed.

So the only thing keeping our international credibility even vaguely intact are the Metropolitan elite.

OldKingCole

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

Potential foreign diplomatic crisis brewing. Lucky we have such a top team...

The potential for a very serious situation involving Saudi, Israel, Iran and the rest of the middle east is there for all to see

Pray God we stay out! And I mean truly neutral.

Agree, but which God?

dixiedean

OldKingCole said:

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

Potential foreign diplomatic crisis brewing. Lucky we have such a top team...

The potential for a very serious situation involving Saudi, Israel, Iran and the rest of the middle east is there for all to see

Pray God we stay out! And I mean truly neutral.

Agree, but which God?

Sadly, Israel Saudi and Iran as well as us all claim to follow the same one.

TheScreamingEagles

OldKingCole said:

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

Potential foreign diplomatic crisis brewing. Lucky we have such a top team...

The potential for a very serious situation involving Saudi, Israel, Iran and the rest of the middle east is there for all to see

Pray God we stay out! And I mean truly neutral.

Agree, but which God?

The God with the noodly appendage.

DavidL

oxfordsimon said:

david_herdson said:

oxfordsimon said:

welshowl said:

oxfordsimon said:

If, as and when Boris is forced out (which I feel is probably inevitable now), who is the most likely replacement?

Needs to be solid, reliable, good at detail, decent instincts and able to get to grips with things the minute they walk through the door.

Not many of them round the table at the moment.

William Hague your time has come.....

I thought about that the other day - would it work having a Foreign Secretary in the Lords? Didn't work out that well for Lord Carrington back in the day. Hague would knock some heads together - that is for sure.

Only because of events. In terms of doing the job, it worked well enough - though a ForSec in the Lords really needs a cabinet-level No 2 in the Commons to be able to answer there.

I know it did work - and it happened with DTI (or whatever it was then) with Lord Young and Ken Clarke as a double act IIRC

The only other time in recent years was the mess when Blair tried to abolish the Lord Chancellor and replace it with SoS for Constitutional Affairs - so you had Charlie Falconer.

But I am not sure that it would be seen as an appropriate step to take now - even though there is plenty of precedent that it can work.

Did Charlie not resign?

Roger

FF43 said:

Leadsom's march on parliament. Theresa Villiers literally clutching her pearls ...

And they are all barking....

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/750979473277943808

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ugh

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928631237081780224

Who's the man on camera left leading the chant?

DavidL

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

Potential foreign diplomatic crisis brewing. Lucky we have such a top team...

The potential for a very serious situation involving Saudi, Israel, Iran and the rest of the middle east is there for all to see

Pray God we stay out! And I mean truly neutral.

Personally I would favour Israel but an Israel/Saudi tag team would be very hard to support. I think we would though.