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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big question is how much Corbyn’s LAB can capitalise on th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big question is how much Corbyn’s LAB can capitalise on the Tory turmoil
With the difficulties that appear to mount by the day the time has come surely for Corbyn’s LAB to make significant advances in the polls.
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Passion? Fairness? Concern? Corbyn outclasses May on all of these. But he has no track record on competence: arguably it’s a negative for him too.
Corbyn needs a fat-cat scandal, a Conservative minister enriching him/herself, before he can really differentiate himself and break through.
All that has happened in the last few weeks is some personal problems for politicians on both sides of the aisle, not any major policy change.
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Brighton, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"
The Tories appear to be in a mess, but look at Labour's front benchers and ask do I really think they are more competent, able, decisive or experienced. Too many of Corbyn's appointments don't know enough about life outside quangos, unions or local government.
For all the strife in the party I just do not see a GE nor how one would come about, though this could change with by elections but that may well effect all parties.
Labour in Wales are in real trouble, especially in North Wales, following the sad death of Carl Sargeant and a full independent inquiry could reveal many disturbing issues for labour going back some years
@another_richard Yes, that Paul Dacre. They ‘pandered’ to him because he is a powerful and influential person in the press so they don’t want to get on his bad side, not because they share all his values.
I don’t think the Stephen Lawrence campaign is something younger voters associate with the Mail. I only knew about until much later after I’d accquited a strong dislike for the Mail. It is one of good things they’ve done though.
Social conservatism in this country is not really of the anti-abortion and anti-gay inclination (anymore) the way it is in the states. It’s much more centred on being anti-immigration, anti-multiculturalism, climate change sceptic, pro-Brexit and anti-PC with a scepticism towards academia. Well, we are already seeing what the agenda means in practice since we’re leaving the EU. Heaton-Harris already indicated what the agenda would look like re universities.
@HYUFD It’s not rubbish - there’s being scepticism towards immigration beyond the last decade, and a lot of that has to do right leaning press. The link I provided you earlier shows the public are happy to pay the higher taxes themselves. There is little evidence the Tories lost their core vote at the GE.
https://twitter.com/ProfAFinlayson/status/928672008333856768
I'm not sure how many direct Tory to Labour switchers he'd attract to get himself across the line.
What can he offer them?
https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/928734832175341574
The link you provided says nothing when you actually show people how much their tax bill will go up at the end of every month and how they will lose out on most of granny's inheritance. Plus of course the Tories are putting £8 billion more into the NHS over this parliament anyway. What healthcare needs is more choice and reform not a bottomless pit of money. Where the Tories lost voters it was mainly the dementia tax which was key.
But I was talking about the ones that are. Would it read better for you if I modified it like so?
.... I have sat here and watched the Brexit loons, who are a subset of undetermined size of the Brexit voters and people who support Leave, but not all Brexit and Leave voters as they also have a subset of indeterminate size who should not be classified as loons as they are nice people and jolly decent, and the ageing membership drag the Tory party past me and well over to the right. ....
Posts might get a bit lengthy....
This is what happens when Mrs May fails to discuss our post Brexit future with the cabinet.
I don't think I've seen a single tweet of his that isn't Guardianista.
Theresa May today warns pro-European Tory rebels that she will not "tolerate" any attempts to undermine Brexit as she unveils plans to enshrine in law the date that Britain leaves the EU.
The Government last night tabled an amendment which formally commits Britain to leaving the European Union at 11pm on 29 March, 2019 ahead of a debate and vote in the Commons next week.
The amendment will effectively force pro-European MPs to publicly declare if they oppose leaving the European Union in March 2019.
Writing in The Telegraph, the Prime Minister warns MPs that they must not use the passage of the EU withdrawal bill through Parliament over the next month to try to "slow down or stop" Brexit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/09/exclusive-theresa-may-warns-pro-eu-tory-rebels-will-not-tolerate/
JRM would provide interest but is not ready for leadership yet.
I'm not sure Mrs May has reservoirs of likeness and competence that Dave had to sustain that.
That's not conservatism, either.
Polls just don't move that soon after an election -- that would mean people admitting they got their own decision wrong when they cast their vote in June, and the British people (God love them) don't do that so quickly.
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/928746522501578752
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/928751276694925312
Great position the patriotic brexiters have put us into.
Having no track record on competence is a not a handicap if your opponent has a record of nothing but incompetence.
Re the link, so you don’t believe voters then. They obviously know when they respond that their tax bill will go up, they don’t need it to actually happen.
The dementia tax was the start of Tory campaign going all tits up, but the reasons why many did not vote Tory go beyond that. Don’t fight the 2017 GE whenever the next GE is.
1) Tory voters may stay at home, as they did in 97
2) Previous non voters may turn out for Labour in greater numbers. They did in June, but there is potential for more.
3) Demographic change and the grim reaper may replace Tory voters with Labour ones.
4) Third parties may be squeezed further.
5) Tory voters may switch to minority parties.
6) All of the above in combination.
The issue is whether they could rehabilitate their image with the public, but it'd be hard to be worse than May's.
I'm hoping Johnny Mercer or Tom Tugendhat are my John Brown.
A FTA will take a number of years to negotiate, the main thing is to get started on it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41558956
Do people seriously believe Tehran needed Boris's comments to keep her in jail? She's a political hostage and will be held until Iran decides it is in its interest to release her. Boris unfortunately gave the Iranians an opportunity to embarrass the government but let's not pretend that he is in any way responsible for her imprisonment.
I am curious - what sector do you work in? Govt? Business? Law? IT? Medicine?
Suits me.
1) They thought what won them a majority in 2015 would win them the referendum (ie the economy and Dave's leadership)
2) Not going blue on blue
3) Scheduling the referendum for when they did (they thought later would see the Parliament dominated by Brexit, oh the irony and the result might be skewed by government mid term unpopularity)
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/928754482124656647
As the poll I linked to showed most voters want inheritance tax abolished, let alone going up. The only viable way would be a specific increase in National Insurance for the NHS.
The dementia tax was a betrayal of core Tory voters.
Reality would be confronted in the same way a fly confronts a windscreen on the motorway and realises it’s made a mistake as its rear end passes through its brains, but if you’re 25 you probably don’t see it.
I work in Records Management and Information Governance but that of course has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the argument in question.
We are leaving in March 2019, we then have a 2 year transition period and we negotiate the FTA pre Brexit and through the transition. There is no way a full FTA with the EU will be agreed in 2 years as Canada showed but progress can be made on it.
I ask because I heard it voiced this evening that the DUP could ditch the May government at any time, once they felt their own position was under threat.
Presumably the DUP cannot avoid being contaminated by their association with this totally incompetent Conservative government.