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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first poll of November finds a tad of comfort for Mrs. May
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first poll of November finds a tad of comfort for Mrs. May and raises questions of LAB
With Mrs. May having to say goodbye to two of her 22 cabinet ministers in less than a week you’d have thought that Labour and Corbyn would have seen an increase in their position in the polls.
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The only way I can see the aspirations of the new Labour voters and the 'anything but Corbyn's' can put an end to this government is for him to resign and throw his weight behing Emily Thornberry.
YouGov Times poll – should TMay stand down?
Should 32% -6
Should not 42%+3
Changes on month ago
From level pegging to a 10 point lead for soldiering on - in the midst of the 'Tory Sex Scandal' (sic)......maybe people are starting to think through who the replacements might be....
Big set piece of the Budget coming up, then we’ll all be thinking about Christmas.
I think the harassment scandal does have the effect of making Mrs May look as if she is set apart from a load of badly behaved men, which may explain her good PM ratings. Whether they persist through the subsequent fiasco with Patel will be interesting.
Put yourself on tape saying that. Then watch it back 100 times - and digest how much of a mess Labour is in, when Emily Thornberry is thought to be the answer to its woes.
PS Was at the Murder on the Orient Express premiere last week. A monumental waste of effort. Did nobody ask "er...why do we need this?" ?? Well, after her efforts this spring, maybe Theresa May might have.
Arf!
In addition both parties have found stasis sweet spots re Brexit. The Tories as the party of Brexit and Labour as the party of not blocking Brexit but softening it enough to pull in Remainers. Both of these formulations seem stable for now. As for minor parties well who other than their cores needs them. The two big parties have acquired binary sweet spots on either side of the binary issue dividing the nation.
I suspect we'll see no big polling shift till there is a deal/no deal for the public to make a judgement on and that will require Labour to get off the fence.
In short even thin ice can be remarkably stable until it breaks.
In fact, saying that, even by the old rules - has anyone led by about 10+ points consistently less than 6 months after a GE? Usually even by the old rules it’s by about midterm you’d expect that to happen. The political circumstances we face here where a government is this bad so soon after a GE doesn’t really have many historical parallels to compare it to, as a reference to what we should expect.
The Tories appear to have gone from being extremely confident that they’d crush a Marxist as a soon as a GE was called to now being relieved that they’re ‘only’ three points behind him. That’s pretty extraordinary.
Also, anyone who thought Corbyn would be PM by Christmas is delusional.
The figures from that Fareham by-election last night suggest that former UKIP supporters switched straight to LibDem. Some will have done, having been anti-Tories from the start. But the greater switches were probably UKIP->Tory and Tory->LibDem.
The Tories are acquiring a new demographic, older, less educated and later in the census alphabet than their traditional core (edit/ OK, not so much older). But I don't see that the party is yet well equipped to represent these people, particularly on economic issues.
How will the under 50/over 50 split change?
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4y1e1sdlwa/InternalResults_171024_VI.pdf
We'll see.
But that's just seperation. We only then start divergence. The likely US Trade deal will see everyone from the TUC, NFU and the Daily Mail united around animal welfare, agricultural tariffs and NHS privatisation. And if we don't diverge what was the point ? If we get a Liam Fox Brexit the 2032 General Election will feature plenty of policy debates over regulatory and tariff divergence than will be fought in terms of bread and butter ( literally ) issues.
And of course once transition ends and we move to FTA terms the campaign to rejoin the SM kicks off. And of course all along every rag tag grievance that was blamed on the EU is going to now be blamed on leaving the EU.
The idea " Brexit " ends as an issue in January 2019 is frankly delusional. What should terrify you frankly is that there is already zero buy in in the polls past 52%. Once the psychological moment of departure happens and blue passports come back well .... permanent transition make seem quite attractive to many. We'll be arguing about this for at least a decade. At least.
I expect him to produce a fairly hairshirt, economically sensible but not very political budget. He thinks more of duty to country than party.
JC and his team really have not built on June's close shave - are Labour having a debate about what they need to do to win the 70 plus seats that they need to even get within distance of a Labour victory, I see no evidence of it, waiting for the govt to fall into a hole is not a viable strategy - after all other parties (UKIP, SNP, Lib Dems etc) will also have a say
He was very concerned at the effect of Brexit, and in particular at the effect of the UK leaving the European Medicines Agency, saying that doing so would paralyse piublic health , including the proper assessment of new medicines, in both Britain and Europe for several years.
For what it’s worth Emily Thornbeery is an accomplished woman who has performed well in media appearances.
I find her a bit irritating at times - but she is one of the best labour prospects imo post JC.
Corbyn being PM by Christmas is not likely, but neither is it impossible. No election is needed, just a No Confidence vote perhaps over the budget or collapse of Brexit talks. As leader of the next largest party he would be asked to try to form a government. A coalition may not be viable, but a Labour minority government might be viable as a caretaker pending new elections in the new year.
Tom Watson was on R4 the other day, he wanted to talk about Priti Patel, that is hardly a govt in waiting - more of ministerial baiting............still the same old westminster games
Labour need to up their game or another party will.
people will vote on the basics not Brexit as Mrs May discovered in June
only anoraks are bleating on about Brexit , the rest of the UK doesnt care
So where the hell are they? And where's Cable? I can't recall the last time I saw him pontificating on anything. 6%? They could lose a few of their remaining seats at that level.
A50 extension would also deal with a large part of the Brexit bill as it would take us closer to the end of this EU budget cycle.
The obvious question would be "how long does a referendum result stay valid for?"
*Arguably an EEA Soft Brexit too, but that seems to be wanted by neither side, and would take a lot of negotiating too.
Luke Akehurst recently wrote an article arguing Labour should go back to the old 3 split voting system for Labour leader.
Having previously argued in 2013 for One Member One Vote and mass registration to ensure we have a mass membership.
Be careful what you wish for!
German doctors declare patients sicker than they are to boost their incomes
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/trotz-gesetzesverschaerfung-aerzte-machen-patienten-kraenker-als-sie-sind-15282078.html
'Crumb' is right. Interesting PM stats, though.
Edited extra bit: mostly rain forecast for tomorrow morning (their time) in Sao Paulo. The qualifying starts at 4pm UK time.
They don't have much choice now other than to play the long game, bang on about the dangers of Brexit, and hope to regain some respect and attention as their predictions start to come true, as happened post-Iraq.
my son hates them
This isn't a Potsdam situatjon where Corbyn could just replace May and the Brexit negotiations would continue smoothly. I reckon a lot of people are holding their noses for the Tories until Brexit is out of the way, and then - who knows? Once we're out she might get a wave of goodwill for seeing it through. Or it could just remove her raison d'etre. People might breathe a sigh of relief it's done, and turn to the various failings of the government and its delivery of Brexit.
If the Tories stay in power, they will be pushed to reform the system in this direction. If Labour, they will fulfil their promise to "abolish" student fees by abolishing loans, and introducing a graduate tax in its place, to avoid the otherwise massive financial black hole. As often in politics, the final outcome will reflect much of the LibDems thinking without their getting any of the political credit.
If he has his own shows on RT and LBC, is it just possible the BBC will find less airtime for him?
It's genuinely mysterious. Trying to ascertain what Labour's position on Brexit on any given day is the work of Sisyphus without the fun bits but the general direction is that the vote must be respected in a series of impossible ways. So why, if there is still all this apprehension about Brexit is the one party unequivocally committed to remaining sitting at 6%?
Obviously, very unlikely. But not quite as unlikely as when he got pole for Williams several years ago in wet and rapidly drying conditions and was seconds faster than those in much better cars.
I've stuck a tiny sum on.
Salmond genuinely was a political hero to me and with a single moronic decision he's now a total twat.
@Sandpit Yeah, I was shocked when I first heard the news. But then I read a story which reported him praising Putin, so now I’m not so surprised.
https://twitter.com/journostephen/status/928757717413646338