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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : November 9th 2017
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : November 9th 2017
Limestone Peak on High Peak (Con defence) Result: Con 261 (54% +4% on last time), Lab 133 (27% unchanged on last time), Lib Dem 58 (12% no candidate last time), Green 34 (7% no candidate last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -23%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 128 (27%) on a swing of 2% from Labour to Conservative
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He starts by arguing that the bailout of the EU member states was illegal, as was the temporary suspension of Schengen around the refugee crisis.
The second one in particular is just plain wrong. The original Schengen Treaty specifically deals with countries being about to temporarily restate border controls when they were necessary, for internal security or other reasons. Not allowing countries to impose temporary controls would have been far more in breach of the treaties than allowing them.
Anyway, back to that paragraph.
I very much doubt that the Eurozone will blow up this electoral cycle.
Why? Because in 2007, there were staggering, astonishing, astronomical imbalances in the Eurozone. I'm sure everyone's read Matthew Lynn's excellent Bust, about Greece.
On the eve of the GFC, the worst of the PIIGS - Spain, Portugal and Greece - were running staggering current account deficits. Household debt in Spain and Portugal had increased ten-fold in the previous decade, as house prices had soared and people had levered up to spend their new found "wealth" on imported German cars. The economies of these countries were almost entirely centered around building houses, in the hope they'd be sold as second homes to Germans, Brits and Swedes.
The economies of almost all the PIIGS are now pretty well balanced: these countries now all export more than they import, have put through dramatic labour market reforms, cut government spending, private sector debt has come down dramatically, insolvent banks have been wound up, and government debt is falling. (Greece is the remaining problem child, but even there there has been progress.)
Now, these do not solve the inherent structural flaws in the Eurozone. But they do make an imminent crisis increasingly unlikely. My guess is that we probably need to look out an economic cycle and a half, when all the good lessons learnt in the Eurozone crisis have been forgotten, for there to be a serious existential threat to the Eurozone.
The fact that Luxembourg is in the top 5 demonstrates the absurdity of the study. Here is a full list of the big investment banks with a presence in Luxembourg:
Here is a list of the big institutional asset managers in Luxembourg:
Here is a list of the major commercial banks in Luxembourg:
Now, there are lots of Luxembourg listed assets. But there are lots of Jersey and Guernsey listed funds. That doesn't make them financial centres, it makes them places with light regulatory structures.
I am only the messenger.
I don't think I'd ever get any work done, 'cos of the Pinot.
Stockholm, Berlin, and Milan might all feature ahead of Dublin depending on the sector. Edinburgh probably has claims over Dublin too.
London, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, Milan, Stockholm, Zurich would I think be my list.