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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This tweet epitomises why betting on Donald Trump related mark

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited November 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This tweet epitomises why betting on Donald Trump related markets is so difficult

Why would Kim Jong-un insult me by calling me "old," when I would NEVER call him "short and fat?" Oh well, I try so hard to be his friend – and maybe someday that will happen!

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    Trump is certainly unpredictable.

    Being powerful and unpredictable makes people afraid of you.

    Which I imagine is how Trump has always liked other people to be towards him.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131
    Is the more appropriate song not 2 out 3 ain't bad?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    edited November 2017
    FPT @Fluffy I was surprised at the margin of victory, but it was another example of a big industrial town voting for Brexit.
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    DavidL said:

    Is the more appropriate song not 2 out 3 ain't bad?

    "FAKE NEWS!" :lol:
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    The only Dwight that matters:

    Roy Dwight.

    Ended up as my 'Games' teacher (1979 - 1982). We are Forest Hill.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Kim gonna be a rong rong time
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?
  • Options

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    Yes, so long as Donald Trump puts his feet on the ground anywhere within the current borders of North Korea, in his first term.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    Yes, so long as Donald Trump puts his feet on the ground anywhere within the current borders of North Korea, in his first term.
    May be tricky if they are glowing...
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    OT, but if anyone wants something a little more heartwarming than endless Brexit handbags, then try this twitter thread. It brought a tear to my eye.

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/929458459187302403
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692
    FPT.
    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    Willie Walsh went on the record a couple of weeks ago saying planes will still fly

    It's a variation on the "Of course there will be a deal - the Germans want to sell us their cars."

    Mr Walsh is probably correct. It is why we will probably sign up to the Article 50 deal on the EU's terms. There is a deal available to us (in outline). It's mostly workable and the unworkable bits I am sure can be sorted out. It does however go against the Brexit rhetoric, which is why people talk about walking away. Maintaining Brexit delusions isn't an EU objective. Actually it's important from their position to knock any such delusions firmly on the head to shore up the integrity of their organisation.
    The difference being Walsh is guilty of market abuse if he misleads investors. For instance he said the US will sign an Open Skies agreement "one second after midnight". He wouldn't have said that without being sure
    I don't think predictions of how other regulators might regulate counts as market abuse. Just as well for Mr Walsh, I suggest.
    He made a definitive statement which is material to investors. I've never looked at the rules in that context but I'd be surprised if it wasn't caught (and he would have had legal advice)
    Willie Walsh doesn't and can't know that the US will sign an Open Skies Agreement with the UK. I think it has to be agreed in Congress, ,but if not, there is a process to go through and there is at least the theoretical possibility it will be denied or delayed. Equally, an informed bystander would understand Walsh was making a statement that depended on the actions of third parties. It's like him saying, it will rain tomorrow. He checked the weather forecast.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,628
    FPT

    We have 5 newish Sentinel ISTR planes looking for a role in a future RAF. Add in the AirSeekers and remaining 6 (?) of the Seven-Dwarves then electronic CAP (Compliance Accross Protocols) can maintain training and governance along the Intra-Irish border and the Irish Sea.

    Soon we will have the tysons* - Certifiable Predators - so they can loiter around as-well. By 2020 we will be able to comfortably observe the North/South border.

    * tyson: You are not a 'Predator' but you really should be 'Certified'. ;)

    So we're going to be putting the five Sentinels[1], the three Airseekers[1] and the six remaining Sentrys[1] aircraft patrolling a border a good Land Rover can cover in a day.

    Pause.

    Well it would work, I'll give you that... :)

    Notes.
    ====
    Following the collapse of the Nimrod upgrade program the RAF was left with little airborne reconnaisance, early warning and battlefield control. Since 2010 the various Conservative administrations filled this gap by buying off-the-shelf hardware or easily-adaptable aircraft. The Sentinel is a militarised bizjet filled with tech made by Raytheon, the Airseekers are militarized Boeing 707s which we bought from the USAF and further upgraded into RC-135W Rivet Joints, and the Sentry is a militarized Boeing 707 with a big rotating piedish above it, which we've had for donkey's years now. The seven dwarfs is because there were originally seven in RAF service and were named after them, but Sneezy (ZH105) was decommissioned. The Reaper is a Predator upgraded to MQ9A, and is a drone aircraft with missiles hanging off it. It's not your Xmas present drone, it's longer than three Mondeos and it can seriously fuck up your day.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2017
    FF43 said:

    FPT.

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    FF43 said:

    Charles said:

    Willie Walsh went on the record a couple of weeks ago saying planes will still fly

    It's a variation on the "Of course there will be a deal - the Germans want to sell us their cars."

    Mr Walsh is probably correct. It is why we will probably sign up to the Article 50 deal on the EU's terms. There is a deal available to us (in outline). It's mostly workable and the unworkable bits I am sure can be sorted out. It does however go against the Brexit rhetoric, which is why people talk about walking away. Maintaining Brexit delusions isn't an EU objective. Actually it's important from their position to knock any such delusions firmly on the head to shore up the integrity of their organisation.
    The difference being Walsh is guilty of market abuse if he misleads investors. For instance he said the US will sign an Open Skies agreement "one second after midnight". He wouldn't have said that without being sure
    I don't think predictions of how other regulators might regulate counts as market abuse. Just as well for Mr Walsh, I suggest.
    He made a definitive statement which is material to investors. I've never looked at the rules in that context but I'd be surprised if it wasn't caught (and he would have had legal advice)
    Willie Walsh doesn't and can't know that the US will sign an Open Skies Agreement with the UK. I think it has to be agreed in Congress, ,but if not, there is a process to go through and there is at least the theoretical possibility it will be denied or delayed. Equally, an informed bystander would understand Walsh was making a statement that depended on the actions of third parties. It's like him saying, it will rain tomorrow. He checked the weather forecast.
    If it doesn't happen and we get a period of no flights then I think overegging a prediction will be the least of his problems.
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    FPT
    Charles said:


    Bullocks.

    It was because a majority of votes in the 6 counties were to remain part of the UK.

    It's the UK belief in self-determination that means we have Northern Ireland not Ulster.

    (I wrote my thesis on the period and was fortunately able to draw on Amelia Lizzie Lambert's private archive - her nephew Edward Carson kept her fully abreast of developments as they happened.

    When was this vote? As I understood it only 3 of the 6 counties had a unionist majority as reflected in the 1918 GE. According to Frank Packenham the status of other 3 counties was supposed to be decided by a border commission which was just a stitch up.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,628
    @TheScreamingEagles

    Thank you for the previous article, which I found interesting and informative. And this one as well.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131
    Just seen the Donald in Home Alone 2.

    He really should have stuck to acting. Playing a slightly stiff, serious looking guy in a hotel corridor answering questions from a precocious and more than slightly annoying kid was totally within his skill set. Unlike being POTUS, for example.
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    I can understand why "old" would sting more than "lunatic" or "nuclear war". One is true, the others aren't.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    DavidL said:

    Just seen the Donald in Home Alone 2.

    He really should have stuck to acting. Playing a slightly stiff, serious looking guy in a hotel corridor answering questions from a precocious and more than slightly annoying kid was totally within his skill set. Unlike being POTUS, for example.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXE3Ku-mGrk
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Trump is certainly unpredictable.

    Being powerful and unpredictable makes people afraid of you.

    Which I imagine is how Trump has always liked other people to be towards him.

    And that was before he got his own nukes....
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692

    If it doesn't happen and we get a period of no flights then I think overegging a prediction will be the least of his problems.

    Actually the main risk isn't that the US and EU won't sign an aviation agreement. It's that they will attempt to recast existing agreements to be more favourable to them. We then have the choice of taking or leaving it, where the consequences of leaving it are too grim to really be a choice. It's another Article 50. We have a solution, we don't like it very much but we don't have a viable alternative. Some people call that blackmail, but I don't think that's a useful way to look at it.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    DavidL said:

    Just seen the Donald in Home Alone 2.

    He really should have stuck to acting. Playing a slightly stiff, serious looking guy in a hotel corridor answering questions from a precocious and more than slightly annoying kid was totally within his skill set. Unlike being POTUS, for example.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXE3Ku-mGrk
    Good Lord! Wearing an overlong red tie too. Does he only own one tie?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131

    DavidL said:

    Just seen the Donald in Home Alone 2.

    He really should have stuck to acting. Playing a slightly stiff, serious looking guy in a hotel corridor answering questions from a precocious and more than slightly annoying kid was totally within his skill set. Unlike being POTUS, for example.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXE3Ku-mGrk
    Yep, that's the scene. I am getting treated to "Christmas" films for the next 6 weeks :-(

    I may be spending more time on PB. Even Brexit is better than that.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Won't life be dull when Donald leaves The White House! :D
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    There is a theory in foreign policy circles that Trump is trying to emulate the Nixonian approach of appearing he might be lunatic when it comes to war and peace.

    So, countering that he is not a lunatic would undermine this.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The EU and the US currently have an open skies agreement (tilted in the US's favour due to them being able to operate intra European flights whilst EU carriers can't operate intra US flights).

    The potential for chaos and leverage against the UK of the UK leaving the EU Open Skies agreements is huge.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    GIN1138 said:

    Won't life be dull when Donald leaves The White House! :D

    As long as he doesn't press the wrong red buttons.

    I keep looking back and comparing this with Goldwater ('64). Goldwater was a sane right-winger (as far as anyone with such views can be 'sane'!) and lost (by a landslide) to the relief of probably all other countries in the world. Trump expresses right-wing nut-job views, is of questionable sanity and won (just).

    So far though he appears to have passed very little legislation. No infrastructure spending, no repeal of Obamacare, as yet no tax cuts ... Are the US checks and balances stopping him?!
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just seen the Donald in Home Alone 2.

    He really should have stuck to acting. Playing a slightly stiff, serious looking guy in a hotel corridor answering questions from a precocious and more than slightly annoying kid was totally within his skill set. Unlike being POTUS, for example.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXE3Ku-mGrk
    Yep, that's the scene. I am getting treated to "Christmas" films for the next 6 weeks :-(

    I may be spending more time on PB. Even Brexit is better than that.
    On the bright side, Christmas is basically a non-event out here in the deep province because no one can afford it, its reduce mostly to a couple of days of drinking and eating. In the cities the decorations have been up since September ('ber' months) but even now there isnt a single one to be seen here.

    On the down side my gf appears to have gone back to her previous man, the one she left because he was banging several other girls at the same time as her! So I might be spending rather more time on PB than expected as well.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just seen the Donald in Home Alone 2.

    He really should have stuck to acting. Playing a slightly stiff, serious looking guy in a hotel corridor answering questions from a precocious and more than slightly annoying kid was totally within his skill set. Unlike being POTUS, for example.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXE3Ku-mGrk
    Yep, that's the scene. I am getting treated to "Christmas" films for the next 6 weeks :-(

    I may be spending more time on PB. Even Brexit is better than that.
    On the bright side, Christmas is basically a non-event out here in the deep province because no one can afford it, its reduce mostly to a couple of days of drinking and eating. In the cities the decorations have been up since September ('ber' months) but even now there isnt a single one to be seen here.

    On the down side my gf appears to have gone back to her previous man, the one she left because he was banging several other girls at the same time as her! So I might be spending rather more time on PB than expected as well.
    Tbh I thought Christmas films was a sad enough reason. Commiserations.
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    viewcode said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    Thank you for the previous article, which I found interesting and informative. And this one as well.

    Your cheque is in the post :lol:
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    Go Vettel !
    1st lap leader.... :smile:

    & Hamilton looks very lucky to have started from the pitlane.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    & pre-race confirmation of my impression of the tyres from T Wolff:
    "I think without a safety car, P4 is the optimum result. The big problem for us is the temperature is 10C hotter than Friday and on our car the tyres are Swiss cheese - it melts."
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Am I missing something great on the TV, its got really quiet on here ?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378

    Am I missing something great on the TV, its got really quiet on here ?

    We've got also to allow for the alarming possibility that everyone else here has a life....
    But I don't want to think about that.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Trump will definitely visit NK. He is not for one to let an opportunity pass now that de-nuclearisation is not possible.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    surbiton said:

    Trump will definitely visit NK. He is not for one to let an opportunity pass now that de-nuclearisation is not possible.

    There's no definitely with Trump - unless they try flattering him egregiously, in which case you're right.

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Alistair said:

    The EU and the US currently have an open skies agreement (tilted in the US's favour due to them being able to operate intra European flights whilst EU carriers can't operate intra US flights).

    The potential for chaos and leverage against the UK of the UK leaving the EU Open Skies agreements is huge.

    That's why Easyjet has started an European arm.
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    surbiton said:

    Alistair said:

    The EU and the US currently have an open skies agreement (tilted in the US's favour due to them being able to operate intra European flights whilst EU carriers can't operate intra US flights).

    The potential for chaos and leverage against the UK of the UK leaving the EU Open Skies agreements is huge.

    That's why Easyjet has started an European arm.
    EasyJet's European operations started as long ago as 1998:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EasyJet_Switzerland
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,923
    How does the bet settle in the event that Donald Trump visits the barren wasteland formerly known as North Korea?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    FLAP Hamilton.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,923

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    You beat me to it :-)
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    Re the previous thread has Shadsy priced up a write in candidate wining ? Who may or may not be the incumbent Luther Strange ? Or the ex Incumbent Jeff Sessions who may value a way of escaping the Trump Cabinet with a degree of dignity ?

    From what I've read Republican strategists are rightly worried about what a write in candidate would do in a three way FPTP contest. Though Alaska offers a recent example of a Republican incumbent winning reelection via write in after losing a primary.
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    On topic I'd have thought Trump visiting US troops in the territory of what is now North Korea is the most likely option. I'd want more than 9/1 to bet on it and would need to know the small print covered that eventuality.
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    surbiton said:

    Alistair said:

    The EU and the US currently have an open skies agreement (tilted in the US's favour due to them being able to operate intra European flights whilst EU carriers can't operate intra US flights).

    The potential for chaos and leverage against the UK of the UK leaving the EU Open Skies agreements is huge.

    That's why Easyjet has started an European arm.
    Indeed. Only two weeks ago the sitting Transport SoS and leading Brexit campaigner said EasyJet had been " smart " to set up an european operation and shift relevent activity there. In any normal or sane situation a British Cabinet member saying it was " smart " for a British company to move jobs and tax revenue off shore would be headline news and probably a resigning offence.

    The fact it passed almost unnoticed is a sign of what Brexit has done to our politics.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    rcs1000 said:

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    You beat me to it :-)
    You'd bet on that ?
    Hedging nuclear war seems a bit of a losing bet anyway.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,923
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    You beat me to it :-)
    You'd bet on that ?
    Hedging nuclear war seems a bit of a losing bet anyway.
    Did you know that London is nearer than Los Angeles to Pyongyang?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    Roger said:
    Moore is unpopular for a Republican in Alabama, (Trump won the State by 28%, whereas Moore was leading by about 10%, prior to the story breaking). But, I think he'll still win, for the reasons given by TSE. Despite this poll, three others conducted after the story put him narrowly ahead.
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    Slovenia Chooses Between the Incumbent and an Ex-Actor for President https://nyti.ms/2jl2Se0
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,923
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:
    Moore is unpopular for a Republican in Alabama, (Trump won the State by 28%, whereas Moore was leading by about 10%, prior to the story breaking). But, I think he'll still win, for the reasons given by TSE. Despite this poll, three others conducted after the story put him narrowly ahead.
    I think the only thing that would gift this to the Democrats would be if there was a meaningful "write in" campaign for a more moderate Republican.
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    surbiton said:

    Alistair said:

    The EU and the US currently have an open skies agreement (tilted in the US's favour due to them being able to operate intra European flights whilst EU carriers can't operate intra US flights).

    The potential for chaos and leverage against the UK of the UK leaving the EU Open Skies agreements is huge.

    That's why Easyjet has started an European arm.
    Indeed. Only two weeks ago the sitting Transport SoS and leading Brexit campaigner said EasyJet had been " smart " to set up an european operation and shift relevent activity there. In any normal or sane situation a British Cabinet member saying it was " smart " for a British company to move jobs and tax revenue off shore would be headline news and probably a resigning offence.

    The fact it passed almost unnoticed is a sign of what Brexit has done to our politics.
    EasyJet's European operations started as long ago as 1998:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EasyJet_Switzerland
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    surbiton said:

    Alistair said:

    The EU and the US currently have an open skies agreement (tilted in the US's favour due to them being able to operate intra European flights whilst EU carriers can't operate intra US flights).

    The potential for chaos and leverage against the UK of the UK leaving the EU Open Skies agreements is huge.

    That's why Easyjet has started an European arm.
    Indeed. Only two weeks ago the sitting Transport SoS and leading Brexit campaigner said EasyJet had been " smart " to set up an european operation and shift relevent activity there. In any normal or sane situation a British Cabinet member saying it was " smart " for a British company to move jobs and tax revenue off shore would be headline news and probably a resigning offence.

    The fact it passed almost unnoticed is a sign of what Brexit has done to our politics.
    John Redwood does videos for Charles Stanley. He was recently advising people to invest in Europe to mitigate fallout from Brexit.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    You beat me to it :-)
    You'd bet on that ?
    Hedging nuclear war seems a bit of a losing bet anyway.
    Did you know that London is nearer than Los Angeles to Pyongyang?
    When Fukushima blew up, one website said that Buenos Aires was the safest place to be. It's 'only' across the Pacific but on the great circle route it's a hell of a way (like London to Auckland).

    Yet again, it seems that Buenos Aires is the city to be if it goes tits-up
    https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/distances.html?n=205.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    surbiton said:

    Alistair said:

    The EU and the US currently have an open skies agreement (tilted in the US's favour due to them being able to operate intra European flights whilst EU carriers can't operate intra US flights).

    The potential for chaos and leverage against the UK of the UK leaving the EU Open Skies agreements is huge.

    That's why Easyjet has started an European arm.
    Indeed. Only two weeks ago the sitting Transport SoS and leading Brexit campaigner said EasyJet had been " smart " to set up an european operation and shift relevent activity there. In any normal or sane situation a British Cabinet member saying it was " smart " for a British company to move jobs and tax revenue off shore would be headline news and probably a resigning offence.

    The fact it passed almost unnoticed is a sign of what Brexit has done to our politics.
    EasyJet's European operations started as long ago as 1998:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EasyJet_Switzerland
    That's purely a Swiss regional play. An open skies agreement between Switzerland and the EU was only enacted in 2002.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    You beat me to it :-)
    You'd bet on that ?
    Hedging nuclear war seems a bit of a losing bet anyway.
    Did you know that London is nearer than Los Angeles to Pyongyang?
    Kim Jong Un does not owe London payback for Team America.
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    You beat me to it :-)
    You'd bet on that ?
    Hedging nuclear war seems a bit of a losing bet anyway.
    Did you know that London is nearer than Los Angeles to Pyongyang?
    Kim Jong Un does not owe London payback for Team America.
    "That was bad, INTELLIGENCE. That was very bad INTELLIGENCE!"
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    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    Alistair said:

    The EU and the US currently have an open skies agreement (tilted in the US's favour due to them being able to operate intra European flights whilst EU carriers can't operate intra US flights).

    The potential for chaos and leverage against the UK of the UK leaving the EU Open Skies agreements is huge.

    That's why Easyjet has started an European arm.
    Indeed. Only two weeks ago the sitting Transport SoS and leading Brexit campaigner said EasyJet had been " smart " to set up an european operation and shift relevent activity there. In any normal or sane situation a British Cabinet member saying it was " smart " for a British company to move jobs and tax revenue off shore would be headline news and probably a resigning offence.

    The fact it passed almost unnoticed is a sign of what Brexit has done to our politics.
    John Redwood does videos for Charles Stanley. He was recently advising people to invest in Europe to mitigate fallout from Brexit.
    A sort of honesty. Many Brexiteers pretend they are moving assets offshore in case Jeremy Corbyn is Prime Minister before Christmas.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    How's this for a strange electoral fact? The Tories won a higher share of the vote in Stoke on Trent than they did in City of Westminster or in any constituency in Wandsworth.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    You beat me to it :-)
    You'd bet on that ?
    Hedging nuclear war seems a bit of a losing bet anyway.
    Did you know that London is nearer than Los Angeles to Pyongyang?
    Tokyo rather closer than either. A hedge against the nuclear destruction of Tokyo would require a wager rather larger the the bookies can usefully entertain.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    Alistair said:

    The EU and the US currently have an open skies agreement (tilted in the US's favour due to them being able to operate intra European flights whilst EU carriers can't operate intra US flights).

    The potential for chaos and leverage against the UK of the UK leaving the EU Open Skies agreements is huge.

    That's why Easyjet has started an European arm.
    Indeed. Only two weeks ago the sitting Transport SoS and leading Brexit campaigner said EasyJet had been " smart " to set up an european operation and shift relevent activity there. In any normal or sane situation a British Cabinet member saying it was " smart " for a British company to move jobs and tax revenue off shore would be headline news and probably a resigning offence.

    The fact it passed almost unnoticed is a sign of what Brexit has done to our politics.
    John Redwood does videos for Charles Stanley. He was recently advising people to invest in Europe to mitigate fallout from Brexit.
    A sort of honesty. Many Brexiteers pretend they are moving assets offshore in case Jeremy Corbyn is Prime Minister before Christmas.
    Surely Brexiteers would pretend the opposite? Who wouldn't want to be fully invested in post brexit Blighty?

    "moving assets offshore" overstates the glamour and difficulty of the operation. If you are lazily invested in tracker funds and such, it costs about 10 mouseclicks and £19.90 dealing charges to turn all your UK holdings into Europe ex-UK.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    Alistair said:

    The EU and the US currently have an open skies agreement (tilted in the US's favour due to them being able to operate intra European flights whilst EU carriers can't operate intra US flights).

    The potential for chaos and leverage against the UK of the UK leaving the EU Open Skies agreements is huge.

    That's why Easyjet has started an European arm.
    Indeed. Only two weeks ago the sitting Transport SoS and leading Brexit campaigner said EasyJet had been " smart " to set up an european operation and shift relevent activity there. In any normal or sane situation a British Cabinet member saying it was " smart " for a British company to move jobs and tax revenue off shore would be headline news and probably a resigning offence.

    The fact it passed almost unnoticed is a sign of what Brexit has done to our politics.
    John Redwood does videos for Charles Stanley. He was recently advising people to invest in Europe to mitigate fallout from Brexit.
    Isn't that exactly the same rationale for making a reasonably generous exit payment offer .... ?
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited November 2017
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    You beat me to it :-)
    You'd bet on that ?
    Hedging nuclear war seems a bit of a losing bet anyway.
    Did you know that London is nearer than Los Angeles to Pyongyang?
    Tokyo rather closer than either. A hedge against the nuclear destruction of Tokyo would require a wager rather larger the the bookies can usefully entertain.
    Buy puts in Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co., Ltd? I am not sure if they underwrite land-based war risks, but then that kind of doesn't matter, does it?
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sean_F said:

    How's this for a strange electoral fact? The Tories won a higher share of the vote in Stoke on Trent than they did in City of Westminster or in any constituency in Wandsworth.

    Surely not that strange when one considers age is now one of the biggest (THE biggest?) dividing lines. Stoke has a considerably higher average age than any inner London constituency.

    My guess would be the US demographic equivalents of Wandsworth and Stoke have been reliably voting Democrat and Republican respectively for some time now.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    How's this for a strange electoral fact? The Tories won a higher share of the vote in Stoke on Trent than they did in City of Westminster or in any constituency in Wandsworth.

    One wonders if the Tories will be able to get those Potters to turn out for them next GE post Brexit. My guess is not.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,628
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    You beat me to it :-)
    You'd bet on that ?
    Hedging nuclear war seems a bit of a losing bet anyway.
    Did you know that London is nearer than Los Angeles to Pyongyang?
    Tokyo rather closer than either. A hedge against the nuclear destruction of Tokyo would require a wager rather larger the the bookies can usefully entertain.
    Buy puts in Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co., Ltd? I am not sure if they underwrite land-based war risks, but then that kind of doesn't matter, does it?
    Nuclear war is usually not covered by insurance. The risk is difficult to assess and there's little demand for it.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,923
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    You beat me to it :-)
    You'd bet on that ?
    Hedging nuclear war seems a bit of a losing bet anyway.
    Did you know that London is nearer than Los Angeles to Pyongyang?
    Kim Jong Un does not owe London payback for Team America.
    Matt Damon
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,628
    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    You beat me to it :-)
    You'd bet on that ?
    Hedging nuclear war seems a bit of a losing bet anyway.
    Did you know that London is nearer than Los Angeles to Pyongyang?
    Kim Jong Un does not owe London payback for Team America.
    Matt Damon
    Matt. Daaaamon.
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    Scott_P said:
    The trouble is this has moved beyond just the lady in Iran or her husband. Unless Boris is actually out there negotiating there is not much that can be done to change what happens to her. What is now more important as far as the FCO is concerned is making sure this or something worse is not repeated. It seems to me that the only way that can be achieved is by getting rid of Boris.

    He could put this right and get her released and it still shouldn't save him as he is simply a liability.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:
    The trouble is this has moved beyond just the lady in Iran or her husband. Unless Boris is actually out there negotiating there is not much that can be done to change what happens to her. What is now more important as far as the FCO is concerned is making sure this or something worse is not repeated. It seems to me that the only way that can be achieved is by getting rid of Boris.

    He could put this right and get her released and it still shouldn't save him as he is simply a liability.
    The other two ways to stop it happening again is for Iran not to jail people or for people not go for a 2 week holiday in as Islamic theocracy.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,628
    edited November 2017

    Boris = c*nt

    Al Pacino phrased it quite nicely... (NSFW, gross profanity)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wezj1ctBVc0
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Does visiting the bloodstained rubble of Pyonyang to spit on Kim's grave count as a visit for betting purposes?

    You beat me to it :-)
    You'd bet on that ?
    Hedging nuclear war seems a bit of a losing bet anyway.
    Did you know that London is nearer than Los Angeles to Pyongyang?
    Kim Jong Un does not owe London payback for Team America.
    Matt Damon
    of Pacific Palisades, Los Angeles?
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    Michael Gove's ambiguous comments today regarding the lady in Iran are somewhat curious. They suggest that the government thinks her case is not straightforward.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    Michael Gove's ambiguous comments today regarding the lady in Iran are somewhat curious. They suggest that the government thinks her case is not straightforward.

    That's because it isn't.
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    Michael Gove's ambiguous comments today regarding the lady in Iran are somewhat curious. They suggest that the government thinks her case is not straightforward.

    Her husband says she has seen a medical specialist after finding lumps on her breast and is near a nervous breakdown. I think we can all have great sympathy for her in this latest twist to the story.

    She needs releasing on compassionate grounds - but this is Iran
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    The trouble is this has moved beyond just the lady in Iran or her husband. Unless Boris is actually out there negotiating there is not much that can be done to change what happens to her. What is now more important as far as the FCO is concerned is making sure this or something worse is not repeated. It seems to me that the only way that can be achieved is by getting rid of Boris.

    He could put this right and get her released and it still shouldn't save him as he is simply a liability.
    The other two ways to stop it happening again is for Iran not to jail people or for people not go for a 2 week holiday in as Islamic theocracy.
    Life is complicated. Her daughter's grandparents live in Iran, and it's probably beneficial to all parties for them to see her and vv. Would you be happy with a rule that they are allowed to immigrate here to facilitate meetings? Thought not.

    The deal is that the government's primary responsibility is the safety of its people, and when they are overseas, responsibility rests with the FO. If that's a bad thing let's shut down the FO and save ourselves the money. I am sure you also feel that the NHS should not treat those who smoke, drink, are fat or leave the house without conducting a detailed risk assessment (except, naturally, to the extent that you yourself fall into any of those categories). But surely, surely we can agree on the very minimum point that for as long as we have a FO and a FS in charge of it, it would be better for the FS not to go positively out of his way to increase the pain, fear and anxiety of the UK subject in trouble abroad, and her family, by being a complete, utter, and unqualified c_nt?
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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41961801

    Brussels riot after Morocco World Cup qualifier win
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    Sean_F said:

    How's this for a strange electoral fact? The Tories won a higher share of the vote in Stoke on Trent than they did in City of Westminster or in any constituency in Wandsworth.

    One wonders if the Tories will be able to get those Potters to turn out for them next GE post Brexit. My guess is not.
    Although in two of the three Stoke seats Labour saw a vote share increased that was more than their national share increase - 12% in Central and 11% in North, compared to 10% nationally.
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    Michael Gove's ambiguous comments today regarding the lady in Iran are somewhat curious. They suggest that the government thinks her case is not straightforward.

    Indeed, the fact that we now have two ministers in a row refuse to say she was simply on holiday suggests she wasn't and the public sympathy is being played.

    Boris saying she was training journos can be written off as a mistake, but now Gove refuses to correct him suggests Boris may well have been correct.
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    JSpring said:

    Sean_F said:

    How's this for a strange electoral fact? The Tories won a higher share of the vote in Stoke on Trent than they did in City of Westminster or in any constituency in Wandsworth.

    One wonders if the Tories will be able to get those Potters to turn out for them next GE post Brexit. My guess is not.
    Although in two of the three Stoke seats Labour saw a vote share increased that was more than their national share increase - 12% in Central and 11% in North, compared to 10% nationally.
    According to the good Dr Fox the conservatives will be vanquished under the glorious new paradise ruled by comrades, Corbyn, McDonnell and Mccluskey and never seen again.

    He is a devoted follower of the new cult of 'Jeremy'. It remains to be seen if he is correct
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:
    Moore is unpopular for a Republican in Alabama, (Trump won the State by 28%, whereas Moore was leading by about 10%, prior to the story breaking). But, I think he'll still win, for the reasons given by TSE. Despite this poll, three others conducted after the story put him narrowly ahead.
    It's terrible, sad and utterly depressing that the US and the UK are so polarised. There is nothing anyone can do about it because as long as we have Trump and Brexit and such populist claptrap..... nationalism, bigotry, racism, misogyny and vile hatred will all thrive. It is all akin to a teacher encouraging bullying in the playground.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Michael Gove's ambiguous comments today regarding the lady in Iran are somewhat curious. They suggest that the government thinks her case is not straightforward.

    Indeed, the fact that we now have two ministers in a row refuse to say she was simply on holiday suggests she wasn't and the public sympathy is being played.

    Boris saying she was training journos can be written off as a mistake, but now Gove refuses to correct him suggests Boris may well have been correct.
    Not at all, because the issue is not whether what Johnson said was true, it is whether it was confidential - as should be obvious to anyone who has had pretty much any job other than seasonal fruit picking. His position is equally bad whether she was visiting grandparents, teaching journalists, or working for the 00 section.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Tulip Siddiq is loving being hyperbolic with all this. All about raising her own profile rather than doing any good to help with the case.

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    BBC reporting outrage in Omagh as pipe bomb was discovered with intent on causing a maximum amount of destruction on Remembrance Day by violent dissident republican movement.

    The thought of this having succeeded is frightening

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    tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    JSpring said:

    Sean_F said:

    How's this for a strange electoral fact? The Tories won a higher share of the vote in Stoke on Trent than they did in City of Westminster or in any constituency in Wandsworth.

    One wonders if the Tories will be able to get those Potters to turn out for them next GE post Brexit. My guess is not.
    Although in two of the three Stoke seats Labour saw a vote share increased that was more than their national share increase - 12% in Central and 11% in North, compared to 10% nationally.
    According to the good Dr Fox the conservatives will be vanquished under the glorious new paradise ruled by comrades, Corbyn, McDonnell and Mccluskey and never seen again.

    He is a devoted follower of the new cult of 'Jeremy'. It remains to be seen if he is correct
    And do you genuinely think the Tories have done a good job since the 2015 election? I cannot imagine a period of worse governance, and all of it of self inflicted.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2017

    JSpring said:

    Sean_F said:

    How's this for a strange electoral fact? The Tories won a higher share of the vote in Stoke on Trent than they did in City of Westminster or in any constituency in Wandsworth.

    One wonders if the Tories will be able to get those Potters to turn out for them next GE post Brexit. My guess is not.
    Although in two of the three Stoke seats Labour saw a vote share increased that was more than their national share increase - 12% in Central and 11% in North, compared to 10% nationally.
    According to the good Dr Fox the conservatives will be vanquished under the glorious new paradise ruled by comrades, Corbyn, McDonnell and Mccluskey and never seen again.

    He is a devoted follower of the new cult of 'Jeremy'. It remains to be seen if he is correct
    Not quite my view :)

    I support Jezza on a number of issues, and oppose him on others.

    I do give him credit for reviving a party that had lost its sense of purpose and self belief.

    There is now a pretty even split Lab/Tory compared with previous decades. GOTV of voters who switch to Con to back Brexit is going to be an issue when Brexit (however it goes) is in the past.
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    tyson said:

    JSpring said:

    Sean_F said:

    How's this for a strange electoral fact? The Tories won a higher share of the vote in Stoke on Trent than they did in City of Westminster or in any constituency in Wandsworth.

    One wonders if the Tories will be able to get those Potters to turn out for them next GE post Brexit. My guess is not.
    Although in two of the three Stoke seats Labour saw a vote share increased that was more than their national share increase - 12% in Central and 11% in North, compared to 10% nationally.
    According to the good Dr Fox the conservatives will be vanquished under the glorious new paradise ruled by comrades, Corbyn, McDonnell and Mccluskey and never seen again.

    He is a devoted follower of the new cult of 'Jeremy'. It remains to be seen if he is correct
    And do you genuinely think the Tories have done a good job since the 2015 election? I cannot imagine a period of worse governance, and all of it of self inflicted.
    Generally yes but Brexit is a poisoned chalice and will be divisive for a long time to come.

    However, TM has made many errors but she has the unenviable task of trying to keep all sides on board. There is no one else at present, and certainly not Corbyn, who could resolve this deepest of dilemmas
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    Tulip Siddiq is loving being hyperbolic with all this. All about raising her own profile rather than doing any good to help with the case.

    And put down by her husband tonight saying it serves no purpose for Boris to resign.

    It looks like the lady has discovered breast lumps and is near a nervous breakdown. Everyone should have enormous sympathy but playing politics is not helping anyone, especially the family
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    tyson said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:
    Moore is unpopular for a Republican in Alabama, (Trump won the State by 28%, whereas Moore was leading by about 10%, prior to the story breaking). But, I think he'll still win, for the reasons given by TSE. Despite this poll, three others conducted after the story put him narrowly ahead.
    It's terrible, sad and utterly depressing that the US and the UK are so polarised. There is nothing anyone can do about it because as long as we have Trump and Brexit and such populist claptrap..... nationalism, bigotry, racism, misogyny and vile hatred will all thrive. It is all akin to a teacher encouraging bullying in the playground.
    In other news this weekend we have football-inspired racial violence in Brussels and Rotterdam, a 60,000 strong Nazi march in Poland with pan-European support from in particular Austria, Hungary and Italy, and an attempted pipe-bombing in Ireland.

    It's not just us.
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    tyson said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:
    Moore is unpopular for a Republican in Alabama, (Trump won the State by 28%, whereas Moore was leading by about 10%, prior to the story breaking). But, I think he'll still win, for the reasons given by TSE. Despite this poll, three others conducted after the story put him narrowly ahead.
    It's terrible, sad and utterly depressing that the US and the UK are so polarised. There is nothing anyone can do about it because as long as we have Trump and Brexit and such populist claptrap..... nationalism, bigotry, racism, misogyny and vile hatred will all thrive. It is all akin to a teacher encouraging bullying in the playground.
    The reports of 60,000 hard right marching on Walsaw last night and today reports from Italy of demonstration demanding Italy leaves the EU immediately and labelling the bloc a mafia, is a manifestation of the way politicians are not listening.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Tulip Siddiq is loving being hyperbolic with all this. All about raising her own profile rather than doing any good to help with the case.

    And put down by her husband tonight saying it serves no purpose for Boris to resign.

    It looks like the lady has discovered breast lumps and is near a nervous breakdown. Everyone should have enormous sympathy but playing politics is not helping anyone, especially the family
    And how often does any serving Foreign Secretary head off to personally secure the release of someone being held in an overseas prison? I can't think of a single case.

    Occasionally you get former politicians with a strong humanitarian record making such a trip. I don't see anyone rushing to do that. Why doesn't Emily Thornberry jet over and see what she can achieve?

    We have to be realistic in what any UK politician can achieve when trying to influence the Iranian justice system. Just as any Iranian politician could ever hold to achieve if the situation were reversed.

    Yes, there are humanitarian concerns but I can't see the Iranian regime being moved by those.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2017

    Michael Gove's ambiguous comments today regarding the lady in Iran are somewhat curious. They suggest that the government thinks her case is not straightforward.

    Go do some reading about this ladies background. It isn't straight forward. The likes of the BBC or politicians aren't telling you the whole truth.

    Gove's comments of I don't know, but her husband does and that is what we have to go on seems 100% accurate.
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    JSpring said:

    Sean_F said:

    How's this for a strange electoral fact? The Tories won a higher share of the vote in Stoke on Trent than they did in City of Westminster or in any constituency in Wandsworth.

    One wonders if the Tories will be able to get those Potters to turn out for them next GE post Brexit. My guess is not.
    Although in two of the three Stoke seats Labour saw a vote share increased that was more than their national share increase - 12% in Central and 11% in North, compared to 10% nationally.
    According to the good Dr Fox the conservatives will be vanquished under the glorious new paradise ruled by comrades, Corbyn, McDonnell and Mccluskey and never seen again.

    He is a devoted follower of the new cult of 'Jeremy'. It remains to be seen if he is correct
    Not quite my view :)

    I support Jezza on a number of issues, and oppose him on others.

    I do give him credit for reviving a party that had lost its sense of purpose and self belief.

    There is now a pretty even split Lab/Tory compared with previous decades. GOTV of voters who switch to Con to back Brexit is going to be an issue when Brexit (however it goes) is in the past.
    Fair enough - but as a lib dem you have been very pro the comrades for quite a while
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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41961801

    Brussels riot after Morocco World Cup qualifier win

    Can't blame it on the drink...
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Tulip Siddiq is loving being hyperbolic with all this. All about raising her own profile rather than doing any good to help with the case.

    And put down by her husband tonight saying it serves no purpose for Boris to resign.

    It looks like the lady has discovered breast lumps and is near a nervous breakdown. Everyone should have enormous sympathy but playing politics is not helping anyone, especially the family
    And how often does any serving Foreign Secretary head off to personally secure the release of someone being held in an overseas prison? I can't think of a single case.

    Occasionally you get former politicians with a strong humanitarian record making such a trip. I don't see anyone rushing to do that. Why doesn't Emily Thornberry jet over and see what she can achieve?

    We have to be realistic in what any UK politician can achieve when trying to influence the Iranian justice system. Just as any Iranian politician could ever hold to achieve if the situation were reversed.

    Yes, there are humanitarian concerns but I can't see the Iranian regime being moved by those.
    And how often does any serving Foreign Secretary casually and publicly assert that the person being held in an overseas prison is guilty as charged, or rather more so? I can't think of a single case.
This discussion has been closed.