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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jacob Rees-Mogg now clear betting favourite to be next CON lea

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited November 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jacob Rees-Mogg now clear betting favourite to be next CON leader

The latest betting chart from Betdata.io is above and shows Jacob Rees-Mogg now clear favourite to succeed TMay but a 14% chance is not that strong. He’s the third Tory to have been favourite since the general election and who knows others could follow.

Read the full story here


«1

Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,380
    edited November 2017
    Mogg?

    An early Christmas gift for Labour.
  • All Hail the Moggmeister
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 938

    Mogg?

    An early Christmas gift for Labour.

    Obligatory "I'm sure that's what the Tories were saying about Corbyn a couple of years ago" post.
  • Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    Only because there's no contest.

    If it all goes pear shaped for May soon, Davis will be PM until a younger leader steps up for the next election.
  • The Conservatives will only choose someone to step straight into the role of Prime Minister without any prior ministerial (let alone Cabinet ministerial) experience if they have completely taken leave of their senses.

    *insert obligatory Brexit observation here*
  • #Esther4Leader yet to feature in the betting. Her time will come...
  • The Conservatives will only choose someone to step straight into the role of Prime Minister without any prior ministerial (let alone Cabinet ministerial) experience if they have completely taken leave of their senses.

    *insert obligatory Brexit observation here*

    JRM it is then.

  • Penny Mordaunt should be the next Con leader.

    Or at least become favourite so I can lay her nicely.
  • Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    Samsung 8+ the way to go - fantastic phone
  • #Esther4Leader yet to feature in the betting. Her time will come...

    Hope so
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    Penny Mordaunt should be the next Con leader.

    Or at least become favourite so I can lay her nicely.

    OOh Behave!
  • Meanwhile, Michael Gove was last matched for next Conservative leader at 17.5. He is creeping up. I expect to see him shorten quite a bit further yet.
  • Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    Samsung 8+ the way to go - fantastic phone
    I have refused to upgrade my ios. I am on 10.2 and I aint budging for a while.
  • Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I heart my iPhone X.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,570

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I’m on Apple’s beta program, and they’ve been doing about three updates a week for the past month trying to get all the bugs out. Some got worse before they got better, but it does look as if the latest one (11.2 public beta 3) is close to what should have gone out in September. An unusual misstep for Apple, who usually get these things right first time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,916
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I’m on Apple’s beta program, and they’ve been doing about three updates a week for the past month trying to get all the bugs out. Some got worse before they got better, but it does look as if the latest one (11.2 public beta 3) is close to what should have gone out in September. An unusual misstep for Apple, who usually get these things right first time.
    At least they aren't EA / Dice....now those guys are in some deep shit. The mouse is not at all happy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,570
    Lay the favourite, as always with this market. And keep laying Boris, he’s been shown to be well out of his depth in a serious job.
  • Depeche Mode and date night tonight.

    I just know something major is going to happen in politics tonight.
  • Mr. E, Morris Dancer always behaves.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,570

    Sandpit said:

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I’m on Apple’s beta program, and they’ve been doing about three updates a week for the past month trying to get all the bugs out. Some got worse before they got better, but it does look as if the latest one (11.2 public beta 3) is close to what should have gone out in September. An unusual misstep for Apple, who usually get these things right first time.
    At least they aren't EA / Dice....now those guys are in some deep shit. The mouse is not at all happy.
    Or Microsoft, who fired 3/4 of their QA team who should have been testing Windows 10 - that was, and still is, an absolute mess

    The gaming companies are taking the piss, they continually have the need to release massive patches in the first few days after release, as people find all the bugs in production.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,570
    edited November 2017

    Depeche Mode and date night tonight.

    I just know something major is going to happen in politics tonight.

    It will be a very quiet one. Switch your phone off and enjoy the silence.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,916
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I’m on Apple’s beta program, and they’ve been doing about three updates a week for the past month trying to get all the bugs out. Some got worse before they got better, but it does look as if the latest one (11.2 public beta 3) is close to what should have gone out in September. An unusual misstep for Apple, who usually get these things right first time.
    At least they aren't EA / Dice....now those guys are in some deep shit. The mouse is not at all happy.
    Or Microsoft, who fired 3/4 of their QA team who should have been testing Windows 10 - that was, and still is, an absolute mess

    The gaming companies are taking the piss, they continually have the need to release massive patches in the first few days after release, as people find all the bugs in production.
    The EA/ Dice situation is worse. They have actually managed to produce a good game with few bugs (StarWars BattleFront II), but introduced micro-transaction environment where if you don't buy the $100s of lottery tickets you have to play 1000s of hours to receive the equivalent power-ups.

    The gaming community have gone absolutely feral, and Disney, who obviously own the rights to Star Wars, have had to get on the blower to tell them to shut down the whole micro-transaction system as it is a total PR disaster.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,570

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I’m on Apple’s beta program, and they’ve been doing about three updates a week for the past month trying to get all the bugs out. Some got worse before they got better, but it does look as if the latest one (11.2 public beta 3) is close to what should have gone out in September. An unusual misstep for Apple, who usually get these things right first time.
    At least they aren't EA / Dice....now those guys are in some deep shit. The mouse is not at all happy.
    Or Microsoft, who fired 3/4 of their QA team who should have been testing Windows 10 - that was, and still is, an absolute mess

    The gaming companies are taking the piss, they continually have the need to release massive patches in the first few days after release, as people find all the bugs in production.
    The EA/ Dice situation is worse. They have actually managed to produce a good game with few bugs (StarWars BattleFront II), but introduced micro-transaction environment where if you don't buy the $100s of lottery tickets you have to play 1000s of hours to receive the equivalent power-ups.

    The gaming community have gone absolutely feral, and Disney, who obviously own the rights to Star Wars, have had to get on the blower to tell them to shut down the whole micro-transaction system as it is a total PR disaster.
    Whoops. Yeah the whole pay-to-play systems in a lot of modern games are properly screwed up. Especially when they’re selling the games at top price to begin with.

    Ask anyone with kids about in-app purchases on mobile too, it’s possible to run up a bill of hundreds or even thousands of pounds in under an hour on a misconfigured device.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,851

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I’m on Apple’s beta program, and they’ve been doing about three updates a week for the past month trying to get all the bugs out. Some got worse before they got better, but it does look as if the latest one (11.2 public beta 3) is close to what should have gone out in September. An unusual misstep for Apple, who usually get these things right first time.
    At least they aren't EA / Dice....now those guys are in some deep shit. The mouse is not at all happy.
    Or Microsoft, who fired 3/4 of their QA team who should have been testing Windows 10 - that was, and still is, an absolute mess

    The gaming companies are taking the piss, they continually have the need to release massive patches in the first few days after release, as people find all the bugs in production.
    The EA/ Dice situation is worse. They have actually managed to produce a good game with few bugs (StarWars BattleFront II), but introduced micro-transaction environment where if you don't buy the $100s of lottery tickets you have to play 1000s of hours to receive the equivalent power-ups.

    The gaming community have gone absolutely feral, and Disney, who obviously own the rights to Star Wars, have had to get on the blower to tell them to shut down the whole micro-transaction system as it is a total PR disaster.
    People are saying they are just waiting for it to blow over before reintroducing them.
  • "Candidates must be nominated by ten parliamentary electors of the constituency they wish to stand in."

    Why don't they just make it significantly more, rather than the use of a deposit system, to combat time wasters?
  • Penny Mordaunt should be the next Con leader.

    Or at least become favourite so I can lay her nicely.

    What criteria are you using for youir selection of best candidate?
  • Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I heart my iPhone X.
    Change to a decent Android phone.

    I gave up on IPhones, the first model, in 2007 which, unlike others at the time, didn't have 3g and there was no facility to copy/cut/paste - vital if you are trying to manage PB from your phone.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,916
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I’m on Apple’s beta program, and they’ve been doing about three updates a week for the past month trying to get all the bugs out. Some got worse before they got better, but it does look as if the latest one (11.2 public beta 3) is close to what should have gone out in September. An unusual misstep for Apple, who usually get these things right first time.
    At least they aren't EA / Dice....now those guys are in some deep shit. The mouse is not at all happy.
    Or Microsoft, who fired 3/4 of their QA team who should have been testing Windows 10 - that was, and still is, an absolute mess

    The gaming companies are taking the piss, they continually have the need to release massive patches in the first few days after release, as people find all the bugs in production.
    The EA/ Dice situation is worse. They have actually managed to produce a good game with few bugs (StarWars BattleFront II), but introduced micro-transaction environment where if you don't buy the $100s of lottery tickets you have to play 1000s of hours to receive the equivalent power-ups.

    The gaming community have gone absolutely feral, and Disney, who obviously own the rights to Star Wars, have had to get on the blower to tell them to shut down the whole micro-transaction system as it is a total PR disaster.
    Whoops. Yeah the whole pay-to-play systems in a lot of modern games are properly screwed up. Especially when they’re selling the games at top price to begin with.

    Ask anyone with kids about in-app purchases on mobile too, it’s possible to run up a bill of hundreds or even thousands of pounds in under an hour on a misconfigured device.
    Right, there is one thing when a game is free to play. But $60 for the game, and then I am told by connections that to realistically unlock a good proportion of goodies it was another $200 (or you would have to play the game for 100s, even 1000s of hours).

    And by goodies, we aren't talking cosmetic stuff (which I never understand paying for), rather in order to be able to actually play Yoda, Hans Solo etc.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,570
    edited November 2017
    The point of deposits is to stop literally hundreds of people standing to be MPs. By requiring nomination papers and a deposit, you’re ensuring that those who end up on the ballot paper are serious about getting involved. Maybe fair enough to scrap them for lower elections, but not for Parliament.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I heart my iPhone X.
    Change to a decent Android phone.

    I gave up on IPhones, the first model, in 2007 which, unlike others at the time, didn't have 3g and there was no facility to copy/cut/paste - vital if you are trying to manage PB from your phone.


    +1

    I started with iPhone and switched to Android, they simply have more flexibility if you want to do anything more complex.

  • I won't be continuing with the iShit when I next buy a phone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735
    edited November 2017
    Re grammar schools previous thread

    There may have been sone which closed under Thatcher and perhaps I was wrong on that, ie falling rolls, some becoming private schools etc. However the fall was negligible with 3.4% in grammars in 1990 compared to 4.5% in 1979 so the majority of grammars Thatcher inherited stayed open during her premiership. Compare that to the period after Wilson got in, Wilson of course being the prime driver of comprehensive education, when the proportion educated in grammars fell by 80% from 25.7% in 1965 to only 4.5% on 1979. If Thatcher had allowed that trend to continue there would have been no grammars left by 1990.

    Having stopped the rot and in her latter years become a vocal supporter with Graham Brady of the Grammar Schools Association by 2016 we now have the situation where 5.2% of state pupils are in grammars compared to 4.5% in 1979 so the numbers in grammars have actually now increased since the late 1970s.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 938

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I heart my iPhone X.
    Change to a decent Android phone.

    I gave up on IPhones, the first model, in 2007 which, unlike others at the time, didn't have 3g and there was no facility to copy/cut/paste - vital if you are trying to manage PB from your phone.

    Apple ain't what it used to be. I had the misfortune of being given one of the new macbook pros at work, it's a beautiful bit of kit but the touch bar is fiddly and counter-intuitive, and the lack of USB ports means you are constantly searching for a converter to connect it to anything else. Battery life is mediocre compared to the previous generation too. Style over substance - OK for a fashion brand but not the "pro" market.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,851
    kyf_100 said:

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I heart my iPhone X.
    Change to a decent Android phone.

    I gave up on IPhones, the first model, in 2007 which, unlike others at the time, didn't have 3g and there was no facility to copy/cut/paste - vital if you are trying to manage PB from your phone.

    Apple ain't what it used to be. I had the misfortune of being given one of the new macbook pros at work, it's a beautiful bit of kit but the touch bar is fiddly and counter-intuitive, and the lack of USB ports means you are constantly searching for a converter to connect it to anything else. Battery life is mediocre compared to the previous generation too. Style over substance - OK for a fashion brand but not the "pro" market.
    They are still selling the old style ones. I'm planning on buying one of those to replace my 2012 model that is getting slightly worse for wear. Hopefully they'll have ditched the gimmicky touch bar and reinstated the escape key when I need a new one :p
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,916
    edited November 2017
    A deal with Amazon to broadcast the main tournaments in men's tennis only on the internet from 2019 will be "one of the most successful this decade".

    http://www.bbc.com/sport/tennis/42014694
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735
    edited November 2017
    TonyE said:

    Only because there's no contest.

    If it all goes pear shaped for May soon, Davis will be PM until a younger leader steps up for the next election.

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 66,813
    edited November 2017

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I heart my iPhone X.
    Change to a decent Android phone.

    I gave up on IPhones, the first model, in 2007 which, unlike others at the time, didn't have 3g and there was no facility to copy/cut/paste - vital if you are trying to manage PB from your phone.

    You can do all of that on iPhones since 2010.

    Most of the PB threads I write and publish are done on an iPhone.

    Ditto most of my comments.
  • Rudd?

    "This intriguing alliance between the pro-European, moderate Rudd and the keepers of the Thatcherite flame might serve her well in a future Tory leadership contest."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/budget-2017-philip-hammond-chancellor-tory-mps-hopeful-conservative-backbenchers-revolt-infighting-a8060951.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,208
    HYUFD said:

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership

    Officially denied this morning
  • Sandpit said:

    The point of deposits is to stop literally hundreds of people standing to be MPs. By requiring nomination papers and a deposit, you’re ensuring that those who end up on the ballot paper are serious about getting involved. Maybe fair enough to scrap them for lower elections, but not for Parliament.
    It is a bonkers idea.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,544
    Sandpit said:

    The point of deposits is to stop literally hundreds of people standing to be MPs. By requiring nomination papers and a deposit, you’re ensuring that those who end up on the ballot paper are serious about getting involved. Maybe fair enough for lower elections, but not for Parliament.
    Quite. The argument seems to be: omg we must abolish it because it works perfectly and exactly as intended. The amount of gratuitous wankerdom this would release doesn't bear thinking about - 100s of candidates with joke lookalike names, etc. If you can't blag £50 a head from 10 supporters, or £5 from 100, you aren't going to get anywhere anyway and the system does you a favour by excluding you.
  • Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I heart my iPhone X.
    Change to a decent Android phone.

    I gave up on IPhones, the first model, in 2007 which, unlike others at the time, didn't have 3g and there was no facility to copy/cut/paste - vital if you are trying to manage PB from your phone.

    You can do all of that on iPhones since 2010.

    Most of the PB threads I write and publish are done on an iPhone.

    Ditto most of my comments.
    Apple delay HomePod launch:

    https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/17/apple-pushes-homepod-release-to-early-2018/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,570
    RobD said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I heart my iPhone X.
    Change to a decent Android phone.

    I gave up on IPhones, the first model, in 2007 which, unlike others at the time, didn't have 3g and there was no facility to copy/cut/paste - vital if you are trying to manage PB from your phone.

    Apple ain't what it used to be. I had the misfortune of being given one of the new macbook pros at work, it's a beautiful bit of kit but the touch bar is fiddly and counter-intuitive, and the lack of USB ports means you are constantly searching for a converter to connect it to anything else. Battery life is mediocre compared to the previous generation too. Style over substance - OK for a fashion brand but not the "pro" market.
    They are still selling the old style ones. I'm planning on buying one of those to replace my 2012 model that is getting slightly worse for wear. Hopefully they'll have ditched the gimmicky touch bar and reinstated the escape key when I need a new one :p
    My old 2012 MBP recently got a new battery, memory upgrade and an SSD. Like a new computer :)

    New laptops are almost universally terrible, from all manufacturers. Completely unserviceable and held together with glue to save space and weight.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,851
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Its not just me then...

    Okay, look. I’m not the first person to say this, and I certainly won’t be the last. But iOS 11 is bad. The new operating system has turned my phone into a bug-infested carcass of its former self, and the frustration of trying to use it sometimes makes me want to die, too.

    https://gizmodo.com/ios-11-is-killing-me-1820480836

    I heart my iPhone X.
    Change to a decent Android phone.

    I gave up on IPhones, the first model, in 2007 which, unlike others at the time, didn't have 3g and there was no facility to copy/cut/paste - vital if you are trying to manage PB from your phone.

    Apple ain't what it used to be. I had the misfortune of being given one of the new macbook pros at work, it's a beautiful bit of kit but the touch bar is fiddly and counter-intuitive, and the lack of USB ports means you are constantly searching for a converter to connect it to anything else. Battery life is mediocre compared to the previous generation too. Style over substance - OK for a fashion brand but not the "pro" market.
    They are still selling the old style ones. I'm planning on buying one of those to replace my 2012 model that is getting slightly worse for wear. Hopefully they'll have ditched the gimmicky touch bar and reinstated the escape key when I need a new one :p
    My old 2012 MBP recently got a new battery, memory upgrade and an SSD. Like a new computer :)

    New laptops are almost universally terrible, from all manufacturers. Completely unserviceable and held together with glue to save space and weight.
    Got a new battery for mine as the old one died. Unfortunately, with the new OS it has started to sound like a hairdryer, so I’m downgrading back to 10.12 this weekend. Fun times.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,570
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    The point of deposits is to stop literally hundreds of people standing to be MPs. By requiring nomination papers and a deposit, you’re ensuring that those who end up on the ballot paper are serious about getting involved. Maybe fair enough for lower elections, but not for Parliament.
    Quite. The argument seems to be: omg we must abolish it because it works perfectly and exactly as intended. The amount of gratuitous wankerdom this would release doesn't bear thinking about - 100s of candidates with joke lookalike names, etc. If you can't blag £50 a head from 10 supporters, or £5 from 100, you aren't going to get anywhere anyway and the system does you a favour by excluding you.
    Genuine LOL at “gratuitous wankerdom” - phrase of the day!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,916
    edited November 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sandpit said:

    The point of deposits is to stop literally hundreds of people standing to be MPs. By requiring nomination papers and a deposit, you’re ensuring that those who end up on the ballot paper are serious about getting involved. Maybe fair enough for lower elections, but not for Parliament.
    Quite. The argument seems to be: omg we must abolish it because it works perfectly and exactly as intended. The amount of gratuitous wankerdom this would release doesn't bear thinking about - 100s of candidates with joke lookalike names, etc. If you can't blag £50 a head from 10 supporters, or £5 from 100, you aren't going to get anywhere anyway and the system does you a favour by excluding you.
    Its racist, sexist, transgenderist, disablist, check your privilege....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership

    Officially denied this morning
    No leadership contender ever says point blank they want to replace the current leader until they do
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership

    Officially denied this morning
    No leadership contender ever says point blank they want to replace the current leader until they do
    There must be 50 ways to deflect that question. He chose to deny any wish to follow Theresa May and has said that he will step aside from his current role once Brexit is completed. I'm inclined to take him at his word.
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership

    Officially denied this morning
    No leadership contender ever says point blank they want to replace the current leader until they do
    There must be 50 ways to deflect that question. He chose to deny any wish to follow Theresa May and has said that he will step aside from his current role once Brexit is completed. I'm inclined to take him at his word.
    I should think by the end of Brexit he will be broken. If not long before.
  • Mr. Evershed, just got her at long odds.

    Mr. Z, I agree entirely on the deposit. The Electoral Commission seems to be either naive, or stupid. Or both.

    On transactions: there's been a huge backlash against their last minute inclusion in Shadow of War, which had been shaping up to be a total success.

    However, I saw a Gamespot Lobby video a few weeks ago which revealed the scale of the micro-transaction bullshit mountain. Upon checking just now (numbers are around 15.30), Activision, over a year, got $3.6bn from them. Huge amounts are being made, and unless gamers vote with their wallets, it'll just get worse.

    There's also an interesting point about whether loot crates should count as gambling.

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334
    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership

    Officially denied this morning
    No leadership contender ever says point blank they want to replace the current leader until they do
    There must be 50 ways to deflect that question. He chose to deny any wish to follow Theresa May and has said that he will step aside from his current role once Brexit is completed. I'm inclined to take him at his word.
    Such a lone is the best way to ensure he gets the job, selflessly saying you will take the job for the good of the party only once the time comes having loyally served the previous leader a la May 2016 or Howard 2005 tends to be more likely to win the Tory leadership than long term brazen ambition a la Heseltine 1990, Portillo 2001, Boris 2016 or even Davis 2005.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership

    Officially denied this morning
    No leadership contender ever says point blank they want to replace the current leader until they do
    There must be 50 ways to deflect that question. He chose to deny any wish to follow Theresa May and has said that he will step aside from his current role once Brexit is completed. I'm inclined to take him at his word.
    I should think by the end of Brexit he will be broken. If not long before.
    Far from it, we are moving towards a FTA and sorting out citizens rights while still ending free movement ultimately despite permanent Remoaning
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership

    Officially denied this morning
    No leadership contender ever says point blank they want to replace the current leader until they do
    There must be 50 ways to deflect that question. He chose to deny any wish to follow Theresa May and has said that he will step aside from his current role once Brexit is completed. I'm inclined to take him at his word.
    I should think by the end of Brexit he will be broken. If not long before.
    Also, if Brexit is a success, May stays for at least the time being (the final deal will be done by her, not him, after all), and if it's not then that's his career over, as a more trivial consequence. Davis will be 70 by Brexit Day; his last chance went when Cameron won in 2010.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership

    Officially denied this morning
    No leadership contender ever says point blank they want to replace the current leader until they do
    There must be 50 ways to deflect that question. He chose to deny any wish to follow Theresa May and has said that he will step aside from his current role once Brexit is completed. I'm inclined to take him at his word.
    I should think by the end of Brexit he will be broken. If not long before.
    Also, if Brexit is a success, May stays for at least the time being (the final deal will be done by her, not him, after all), and if it's not then that's his career over, as a more trivial consequence. Davis will be 70 by Brexit Day; his last chance went when Cameron won in 2010.
    So what, Trump and Sanders and Biden are well over 70 and Corbyn is almost 70
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 17,953
    Gove v JRM with Gove winning by a margin.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,570
    TGOHF said:

    Gove v JRM with Gove winning by a margin.

    That’s plausible. I just had a nibble on Gove at 17 - same price as Ruth Davidson.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 2,313
    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    Gunboat or Expeditionary Force? Or both?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735
    TGOHF said:

    Gove v JRM with Gove winning by a margin.

    Davis v Rudd more likely with Davis winning
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 2,450

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    That's obviously not going to happen, and I'd certainly be very far from suggesting it. It's not actually inconceivable that it might be the best result though. Ireland will be in odd place, but I'm sure they'll be fine whatever happens. They might benefit from a disorderly Brexit process in the short-term, but that'd hurt them long term. Equally they need to be careful on the terms so that they're not disadvantaged.

    As far as I can see it that sort of balance extends to every country involved. A reasonably organised solution works best for all. That's still a big playing field though.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077

    Mr. Evershed, just got her at long odds.

    Mr. Z, I agree entirely on the deposit. The Electoral Commission seems to be either naive, or stupid. Or both.

    On transactions: there's been a huge backlash against their last minute inclusion in Shadow of War, which had been shaping up to be a total success.

    However, I saw a Gamespot Lobby video a few weeks ago which revealed the scale of the micro-transaction bullshit mountain. Upon checking just now (numbers are around 15.30), Activision, over a year, got $3.6bn from them. Huge amounts are being made, and unless gamers vote with their wallets, it'll just get worse.

    There's also an interesting point about whether loot crates should count as gambling.

    I've dabbled in them for Blizzard (Activision) games - Hearthstone mainly, though recently I've played solely NES roms !
    Old ROMs are a great and cheap way to game.
  • HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Gove v JRM with Gove winning by a margin.

    Davis v Rudd more likely with Davis winning
    I assume you accept Boris is out of the equation

    Davis v Rudd would not inspire anyone. I believe it will be someone who is not in the picture but of the leavers Gove is the best qualified and very intelligent
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,660
    I just don't see Davis giving it another go. The Cons have of course come back to him ideologically with their retoxification (being only slightly harsh on him) but he tried and failed to be leader over before and hence is not a winner, notwithstanding the good or otherwise job her is doing with Brexit in the minds of the Tory faithful.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,563
    edited November 2017

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    Also good locals for the conservatives with a conservative gain from labour and running them close in Darlington. It does make you wonder if parts of the Country see labour as trying to frustrate the process and they may be getting very annoyed with the EU demands
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,660
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
  • RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Britain has one land border to worry about. That land border is highly contentious and governed in part by a carefully brokered agreement from 20 years ago, under which Britain has numerous obligations. The current Leaver attitude seems to be "I dunno lol".

    The unseriousness is disgusting and yes, a national disgrace.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334
    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    It is obliged to under WTO rules. It has no choice. The Brexiteers should have known this. But, as we know, they never bothered to find out.

    Good luck with any kind of US trade deal if we mess around with Ireland. There's this thing called the Irish American lobby and it will ensure that nothing gets through Congress.

  • Where's Tracey Crouch on there?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Gove v JRM with Gove winning by a margin.

    Davis v Rudd more likely with Davis winning
    I assume you accept Boris is out of the equation

    Davis v Rudd would not inspire anyone. I believe it will be someone who is not in the picture but of the leavers Gove is the best qualified and very intelligent
    If it was just members it would be Boris v JRM but Davis and Rudd probably have most support amongst MPs. The leader does not need to be inspiring given Corbyn is the alternative and both Davis and Rudd poll reasonably well with the public, especially Davis in terms of the Tory voteshare he gets against Corbyn with Survation.

    Gove is toxic with the public and polls abysmally which is why he failed to reach the final 2 with MPs in 2016, he is a competent Cabinet Minister but will not be PM
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,570
    edited November 2017

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    Also good locals for the conservatives with a conservative gain from labour and running them close in Darlington. It does make you wonder if parts of the Country see labour as trying to frustrate the process and they may be getting very annoyed with the EU demands
    Yup. The Comon Travel Area remains in place, so they don’t need a border for people, only for goods. An electronic customs system for commercial vehicles, backed by ANPR cameras and a few mobile customs officers in the border region for spot checks and tip-offs does the trick.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Britain has one land border to worry about. That land border is highly contentious and governed in part by a carefully brokered agreement from 20 years ago, under which Britain has numerous obligations. The current Leaver attitude seems to be "I dunno lol".

    The unseriousness is disgusting and yes, a national disgrace.
    Lots of borders are highly contentious; that doesn't mean they aren't policed.

    Yet again, the EU seems to have given many people learned helplessness about what should be a very basic function of the state.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,660
    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Quite a naïve comment given the nature of it. And if we were going to do it why haven't we started preparations? The UK govt evidently has no intention of putting a hard border in.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    It is obliged to under WTO rules. It has no choice. The Brexiteers should have known this. But, as we know, they never bothered to find out.

    Good luck with any kind of US trade deal if we mess around with Ireland. There's this thing called the Irish American lobby and it will ensure that nothing gets through Congress.

    To be honest the force of media criticsm and the remain lobby are emboldering the EU and we may see a point when we walk away on WTO rules and the majority of voters will back the stance
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735
    TOPPING said:

    I just don't see Davis giving it another go. The Cons have of course come back to him ideologically with their retoxification (being only slightly harsh on him) but he tried and failed to be leader over before and hence is not a winner, notwithstanding the good or otherwise job her is doing with Brexit in the minds of the Tory faithful.

    Howard came last amongst Tory MPs in 1997 but by 2003 was elected leader by Tory MPs
  • Old_SchoolOld_School Posts: 1
    edited November 2017
    Tory leadership: the current favourite will win. Davis and Johnson won't stand. Davis will back Rudd, Boris will back JRM, nobody much will care who Gove backs. In whichever is the last round among the MPs it will be JRM 1st, Rudd 2nd, and Rudd will withdraw. No complaints from the membership, because they'll have got who they'd have voted for anyway. JRM is a charmer. He is not a Jeeves. Rudd could get DEXEU.

    JRM has some tricks up his sleeve. Don't assume everyone will keep to the position on the EU that they're adopting now.

    The "we're so hard we'll take no deal if we can't get what we want" will change, and when it does it will change fast. There's got to be a deal, or a reversal of the decision to leave - that's obvious. The latter could involve EU reform. Easy to imagine Macron being the big face of that. Sorry Bulgaria, sorry Romania, sorry Poland. Though I think catastrophe is most likely.

    Ireland: fascinating how almost all politicians in Britain and Ireland say it's essential to avoid a hard border, but none of them have a problem with the big high wall in Belfast that separates Catholics and Protestants. A hard border in Ireland won't be the problem it's billed as. I've been wondering who Leo Varadkar is getting his orders from. While his record shows a few anti-Trump words, it also shows that he trained for his political career in the US. We aren't in the Dave's Deal, butter-up-the-Lithuanians-and-everyone-else-too stage any more, and Dublin won't be allowed to hold Britain to ransom.

    Theresa May? Out in December or January I reckon, but before the end of March.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Britain has one land border to worry about. That land border is highly contentious and governed in part by a carefully brokered agreement from 20 years ago, under which Britain has numerous obligations. The current Leaver attitude seems to be "I dunno lol".

    The unseriousness is disgusting and yes, a national disgrace.
    Lots of borders are highly contentious; that doesn't mean they aren't policed.

    Yet again, the EU seems to have given many people learned helplessness about what should be a very basic function of the state.
    So Leavers are just going to disregard the Good Friday Agreement because of Brexit. Risible.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    Yep - he should know his place. How dare he be utterly pissed off with a lot of deluded Tories who promised nothing would change on the Irish border but - surprise, surprise - have come up with no way of ensuring that.

    There is, of course, one country that does suffer more than Ireland as the result of a chaotic Brexit and I am sitting in the middle of it. Should there be No Deal, we leave the EU and more than 750 trade and regulatory agreements that are related to our membership. The Irish stay in every single one.

  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Gove v JRM with Gove winning by a margin.

    Davis v Rudd more likely with Davis winning
    I assume you accept Boris is out of the equation

    Davis v Rudd would not inspire anyone. I believe it will be someone who is not in the picture but of the leavers Gove is the best qualified and very intelligent
    If it was just members it would be Boris v JRM but Davis and Rudd probably have most support amongst MPs. The leader does not need to be inspiring given Corbyn is the alternative and both Davis and Rudd poll reasonably well with the public, especially Davis in terms of the Tory voteshare he gets against Corbyn with Survation.

    Gove is toxic with the public and polls abysmally which is why he failed to reach the final 2 with MPs in 2016, he is a competent Cabinet Minister but will not be PM
    I rather think an inspiring leader is a must. Corbyn will not be there for ever
  • RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    It is obliged to under WTO rules. It has no choice. The Brexiteers should have known this. But, as we know, they never bothered to find out.

    Good luck with any kind of US trade deal if we mess around with Ireland. There's this thing called the Irish American lobby and it will ensure that nothing gets through Congress.

    To be honest the force of media criticsm and the remain lobby are emboldering the EU and we may see a point when we walk away on WTO rules and the majority of voters will back the stance

    Yep - and then what?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735
    edited November 2017

    Tory leadership: the current favourite will win. Davis and Johnson won't stand. Davis will back Rudd, Boris will back JRM, nobody much will care who Gove backs. JRM 1st, Rudd 2nd, and Rudd will withdraw. No complaints from the membership, because they'll have got who they'd have voted for anyway. JRM is a charmer. He is not a Jeeves. Rudd could get DEXEU.

    JRM has some tricks up his sleeve. Don't assume everyone will keep to the position on the EU that they're adopting now.

    Ireland: fascinating how almost all politicians in Britain and Ireland say it's essential to avoid a hard border, but none of them have a problem with the big high wall in Belfast that separates Catholics and Protestants. A hard border in Ireland won't be the problem it's billed as. I've been wondering who Leo Varadkar is getting his orders from, and noticed that while his record shows some a few anti-Trump words, it also shows that he trained for his political career in the US. We aren't in the Dave's Deal, butter-up-the-Lithuanians-and-everyone-else-too stage any more, and Dublin won't be allowed to hold Britain to ransom.

    Theresa May? Out in December or January I reckon, but before the end of March.

    JRM wants to be opposition leader not PM, he may not even stand this time and if he did win before Brexit it would be hard Brexit nailed on given his belief 'we fo not owe the EU a farthing.'
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,015
    I'm sticking with my portfolio of Ress-Mogg at 8-1,Johnson J at 100-1,Williamson at 50-1 and Leadsom at 33-1.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334
    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Quite a naïve comment given the nature of it. And if we were going to do it why haven't we started preparations? The UK govt evidently has no intention of putting a hard border in.
    It's not naive; you're just arguing that something vast numbers of states manage is beyond us. More difficult than now so therefore impossible.

    Before the Troubles began we had a customs frontier and the Common Travel Area at the same time.

    Saying that there should be controls on the Irish side only is clearly mad.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership

    Officially denied this morning
    No leadership contender ever says point blank they want to replace the current leader until they do
    There must be 50 ways to deflect that question. He chose to deny any wish to follow Theresa May and has said that he will step aside from his current role once Brexit is completed. I'm inclined to take him at his word.
    I should think by the end of Brexit he will be broken. If not long before.
    Also, if Brexit is a success, May stays for at least the time being (the final deal will be done by her, not him, after all), and if it's not then that's his career over, as a more trivial consequence. Davis will be 70 by Brexit Day; his last chance went when Cameron won in 2010.
    So what, Trump and Sanders and Biden are well over 70 and Corbyn is almost 70
    Yes, the next US presidential race is going to resemble the Kremlin c.1983 or China under Deng.

    But I do think it's relevant: being PM is hard physical work and I would rather the job were done by someone younger (and someone who's more of a team player, for that matter).
  • Sandpit said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    Also good locals for the conservatives with a conservative gain from labour and running them close in Darlington. It does make you wonder if parts of the Country see labour as trying to frustrate the process and they may be getting very annoyed with the EU demands
    Yup. The Comon Travel Area remains in place, so they don’t need a border for people, only for goods. An electronic customs system for commercial vehicles, backed by ANPR cameras and a few mobile customs officers in the border region for spot checks and tip-offs does the trick.

    Great - so all the UK government needs to do is to demonstrate clearly how this will work and we are done. I am surprised they have not done this already given how simple it is.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership

    Officially denied this morning
    No leadership contender ever says point blank they want to replace the current leader until they do
    There must be 50 ways to deflect that question. He chose to deny any wish to follow Theresa May and has said that he will step aside from his current role once Brexit is completed. I'm inclined to take him at his word.
    I should think by the end of Brexit he will be broken. If not long before.
    Also, if Brexit is a success, May stays for at least the time being (the final deal will be done by her, not him, after all), and if it's not then that's his career over, as a more trivial consequence. Davis will be 70 by Brexit Day; his last chance went when Cameron won in 2010.
    So what, Trump and Sanders and Biden are well over 70 and Corbyn is almost 70
    Yes, the next US presidential race is going to resemble the Kremlin c.1983 or China under Deng.

    But I do think it's relevant: being PM is hard physical work and I would rather the job were done by someone younger (and someone who's more of a team player, for that matter).
    You may do but especially with Brexit etc it will probably be an old hand and it is also questionable why a young figure would want to become Tory leader nearly 10 years into a Tory government, young cardinals like old popes etc
  • RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    It is obliged to under WTO rules. It has no choice. The Brexiteers should have known this. But, as we know, they never bothered to find out.

    [snip]

    That's not necessarily true. Britain has several treaties with Ireland, including the GFA. Interpreted imaginatively, it could be construed to facilitate free trade even outside the EU.

    It might also be worth investigating the status of the 1965 UK-Ireland trade treaty.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Gove v JRM with Gove winning by a margin.

    Davis v Rudd more likely with Davis winning
    I assume you accept Boris is out of the equation

    Davis v Rudd would not inspire anyone. I believe it will be someone who is not in the picture but of the leavers Gove is the best qualified and very intelligent
    If it was just members it would be Boris v JRM but Davis and Rudd probably have most support amongst MPs. The leader does not need to be inspiring given Corbyn is the alternative and both Davis and Rudd poll reasonably well with the public, especially Davis in terms of the Tory voteshare he gets against Corbyn with Survation.

    Gove is toxic with the public and polls abysmally which is why he failed to reach the final 2 with MPs in 2016, he is a competent Cabinet Minister but will not be PM
    I rather think an inspiring leader is a must. Corbyn will not be there for ever
    Corbyn will lead Labour at the next general election certainly and competence and experience is more important against him than inspiration
  • RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Britain has one land border to worry about. That land border is highly contentious and governed in part by a carefully brokered agreement from 20 years ago, under which Britain has numerous obligations. The current Leaver attitude seems to be "I dunno lol".

    The unseriousness is disgusting and yes, a national disgrace.
    Lots of borders are highly contentious; that doesn't mean they aren't policed.

    Yet again, the EU seems to have given many people learned helplessness about what should be a very basic function of the state.
    So Leavers are just going to disregard the Good Friday Agreement because of Brexit. Risible.

    The Irish should know their place. They have absolutely no right to expect the UK to sort out a problem the UK created.

  • RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    It is obliged to under WTO rules. It has no choice. The Brexiteers should have known this. But, as we know, they never bothered to find out.

    Good luck with any kind of US trade deal if we mess around with Ireland. There's this thing called the Irish American lobby and it will ensure that nothing gets through Congress.

    To be honest the force of media criticsm and the remain lobby are emboldering the EU and we may see a point when we walk away on WTO rules and the majority of voters will back the stance

    Yep - and then what?

    Well it would not be ideal and not something I want but in the end if the perception turns against the EU it will happen irrespective of the consequences

    Tonights narrative on the broadcast channels shows an EU and Ireland unwilling to compromise and it is not a good look. Many will be thinking of telling the EU to ..
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,182
    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Except the Irish from North and South will ignore it....
This discussion has been closed.