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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jacob Rees-Mogg now clear betting favourite to be next CON lea

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  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    Gove v JRM with Gove winning by a margin.

    Yes, I could see that - though short of a repeat of the circular firing squad from last time, I still think JRM will struggle to make it through the MPs' rounds if he runs.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Gove v JRM with Gove winning by a margin.

    Davis v Rudd more likely with Davis winning
    I assume you accept Boris is out of the equation

    Davis v Rudd would not inspire anyone. I believe it will be someone who is not in the picture but of the leavers Gove is the best qualified and very intelligent
    If it was just members it would be Boris v JRM but Davis and Rudd probably have most support amongst MPs. The leader does not need to be inspiring given Corbyn is the alternative and both Davis and Rudd poll reasonably well with the public, especially Davis in terms of the Tory voteshare he gets against Corbyn with Survation.

    Gove is toxic with the public and polls abysmally which is why he failed to reach the final 2 with MPs in 2016, he is a competent Cabinet Minister but will not be PM
    I rather think an inspiring leader is a must. Corbyn will not be there for ever
    Corbyn will lead Labour at the next general election certainly and competence and experience is more important against him than inspiration
    You have to inspire people to vote for you
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    edited November 2017
    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Quite a naïve comment given the nature of it. And if we were going to do it why haven't we started preparations? The UK govt evidently has no intention of putting a hard border in.
    It's not naive; you're just arguing that something vast numbers of states manage is beyond us. More difficult than now so therefore impossible.

    Before the Troubles began we had a customs frontier and the Common Travel Area at the same time.

    Saying that there should be controls on the Irish side only is clearly mad.
    Then why aren't we reanimating the Border Crossing Points, building some infrastructure, hiring people (HMRC, HMF, who knows) to police it? But instead we have nothing.

    And that's just the practical element to say nothing of the GFA, etc
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Gove v JRM with Gove winning by a margin.

    Davis v Rudd more likely with Davis winning
    I assume you accept Boris is out of the equation

    Davis v Rudd would not inspire anyone. I believe it will be someone who is not in the picture but of the leavers Gove is the best qualified and very intelligent
    If it was just members it would be Boris v JRM but Davis and Rudd probably have most support amongst MPs. The leader does not need to be inspiring given Corbyn is the alternative and both Davis and Rudd poll reasonably well with the public, especially Davis in terms of the Tory voteshare he gets against Corbyn with Survation.

    Gove is toxic with the public and polls abysmally which is why he failed to reach the final 2 with MPs in 2016, he is a competent Cabinet Minister but will not be PM
    I rather think an inspiring leader is a must. Corbyn will not be there for ever
    Corbyn will lead Labour at the next general election certainly and competence and experience is more important against him than inspiration
    You have to inspire people to vote for you
    How would @HYUFD know that?
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership

    Officially denied this morning
    No leadership contender ever says point blank they want to replace the current leader until they do
    There must be 50 ways to deflect that question. He chose to deny any wish to follow Theresa May and has said that he will step aside from his current role once Brexit is completed. I'm inclined to take him at his word.
    I should think by the end of Brexit he will be broken. If not long before.
    Also, if Brexit is a success, May stays for at least the time being (the final deal will be done by her, not him, after all), and if it's not then that's his career over, as a more trivial consequence. Davis will be 70 by Brexit Day; his last chance went when Cameron won in 2010.
    So what, Trump and Sanders and Biden are well over 70 and Corbyn is almost 70
    Yes, the next US presidential race is going to resemble the Kremlin c.1983 or China under Deng.

    But I do think it's relevant: being PM is hard physical work and I would rather the job were done by someone younger (and someone who's more of a team player, for that matter).
    You may do but especially with Brexit etc it will probably be an old hand and it is also questionable why a young figure would want to become Tory leader nearly 10 years into a Tory government, young cardinals like old popes etc
    What, like John Major did - who then went on to win the next election?

    The young cardinals / old popes is irrelevant. A Tory leader who takes the party from government to opposition will lose his or her job no matter how old they are.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Quite a naïve comment given the nature of it. And if we were going to do it why haven't we started preparations? The UK govt evidently has no intention of putting a hard border in.
    It's not naive; you're just arguing that something vast numbers of states manage is beyond us. More difficult than now so therefore impossible.

    Before the Troubles began we had a customs frontier and the Common Travel Area at the same time.

    Saying that there should be controls on the Irish side only is clearly mad.
    Then why aren't we reanimating the Border Crossing Points, building some infrastructure, hiring people (HMRC, HMF, who knows) to police it? But instead we have nothing.

    And that's just the practical element to say nothing of the GFA, etc
    I'm not going to defend the Government's stance on Northern Ireland, because I can't!

    Theresa May is Prince Lvov; an ancien regime politician trying to enact revolutionary measures. No wonder she's a failure.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,249
    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Quite a naïve comment given the nature of it. And if we were going to do it why haven't we started preparations? The UK govt evidently has no intention of putting a hard border in.
    It's not naive; you're just arguing that something vast numbers of states manage is beyond us. More difficult than now so therefore impossible.

    Before the Troubles began we had a customs frontier and the Common Travel Area at the same time.

    Saying that there should be controls on the Irish side only is clearly mad.
    Then why aren't we reanimating the Border Crossing Points, building some infrastructure, hiring people (HMRC, HMF, who knows) to police it? But instead we have nothing.

    And that's just the practical element to say nothing of the GFA, etc
    I'm not going to defend the Government's stance on Northern Ireland, because I can't!

    Theresa May is Prince Lvov; an ancien regime politician trying to enact revolutionary measures. No wonder she's a failure.
    On which we both agree!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Quite a naïve comment given the nature of it. And if we were going to do it why haven't we started preparations? The UK govt evidently has no intention of putting a hard border in.
    It's not naive; you're just arguing that something vast numbers of states manage is beyond us.
    It's beyond us because the UK is not like other states. It's a superstate made up of what remains of a shrunken empire. If we force the issue, it will only lead to the disintegration of the UK.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    edited November 2017

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    It is obliged to under WTO rules. It has no choice. The Brexiteers should have known this. But, as we know, they never bothered to find out.

    Good luck with any kind of US trade deal if we mess around with Ireland. There's this thing called the Irish American lobby and it will ensure that nothing gets through Congress.

    To be honest the force of media criticsm and the remain lobby are emboldering the EU and we may see a point when we walk away on WTO rules and the majority of voters will back the stance

    Yep - and then what?

    Well it would not be ideal and not something I want but in the end if the perception turns against the EU it will happen irrespective of the consequences

    Tonights narrative on the broadcast channels shows an EU and Ireland unwilling to compromise and it is not a good look. Many will be thinking of telling the EU to ..

    What compromise would you expect the Irish to make given that the UK signed the Good Friday agreement, which was endorsed overwhelmingly in referenda on both sides of the border, as well as by the British parliament and which has helped to bring about radical and beneficial change tot he island of Ireland?

    I totally agree that right wing Tory English naitonalists would happily trash Ireland north and south, and drive the UK economy into the ground, in order to win a red, white and blue election, but at some stage millions and millions of ordinary British citizens are going to have to deal with the consequences of that. And it will not be pretty.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847
    edited November 2017

    Sandpit said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    Also good locals for the conservatives with a conservative gain from labour and running them close in Darlington. It does make you wonder if parts of the Country see labour as trying to frustrate the process and they may be getting very annoyed with the EU demands
    Yup. The Comon Travel Area remains in place, so they don’t need a border for people, only for goods. An electronic customs system for commercial vehicles, backed by ANPR cameras and a few mobile customs officers in the border region for spot checks and tip-offs does the trick.

    Great - so all the UK government needs to do is to demonstrate clearly how this will work and we are done. I am surprised they have not done this already given how simple it is.

    A similar system is already in place on large stretches of the world’s longest land border, between the USA and Canada. It’s not difficult to do if both sides co-operate. But the EU doesn’t want to co-operate.

    As @Big_G_NorthWales says, the constant remoaner voices on the broadcast media could well backfire in their aims and generate public support for a WTO deal.
  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    It takes all the other 27 heads of state in the European Council to agree to the terms of the UK leaving. It may not be a good idea to slag off one of our closest friends.....
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    Also good locals for the conservatives with a conservative gain from labour and running them close in Darlington. It does make you wonder if parts of the Country see labour as trying to frustrate the process and they may be getting very annoyed with the EU demands
    Yup. The Comon Travel Area remains in place, so they don’t need a border for people, only for goods. An electronic customs system for commercial vehicles, backed by ANPR cameras and a few mobile customs officers in the border region for spot checks and tip-offs does the trick.

    Great - so all the UK government needs to do is to demonstrate clearly how this will work and we are done. I am surprised they have not done this already given how simple it is.

    A similar system is already in place on large stretches of the world’s longest land border, between the USA and Canada. It’s not difficult to do if both sides co-operate. But the EU doesn’t want to co-operate.
    ANPR cameras are inconsistent with the UK position of no physical infrastructure, and the additional bureaucracy is inconsistent with the principles of north-south economic cooperation enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement.
  • Options

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    It is obliged to under WTO rules. It has no choice. The Brexiteers should have known this. But, as we know, they never bothered to find out.

    [snip]

    That's not necessarily true. Britain has several treaties with Ireland, including the GFA. Interpreted imaginatively, it could be construed to facilitate free trade even outside the EU.

    It might also be worth investigating the status of the 1965 UK-Ireland trade treaty.

    The problem is that the EU is a WTO member state and the Irish would be policing an EU border. It could be argued that Anglo-Irish agreements might take precedence, but that would then involve creating a regulatory border between the RoI and the rest of the EU. IN other words, the UK would essentially require the Irish to pull out of the EU to solve a problem created entirely by the UK.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    Also good locals for the conservatives with a conservative gain from labour and running them close in Darlington. It does make you wonder if parts of the Country see labour as trying to frustrate the process and they may be getting very annoyed with the EU demands
    Yup. The Comon Travel Area remains in place, so they don’t need a border for people, only for goods. An electronic customs system for commercial vehicles, backed by ANPR cameras and a few mobile customs officers in the border region for spot checks and tip-offs does the trick.

    Great - so all the UK government needs to do is to demonstrate clearly how this will work and we are done. I am surprised they have not done this already given how simple it is.

    A similar system is already in place on large stretches of the world’s longest land border, between the USA and Canada. It’s not difficult to do if both sides co-operate. But the EU doesn’t want to co-operate.
    ANPR cameras are inconsistent with the UK position of no physical infrastructure, and the additional bureaucracy is inconsistent with the principles of north-south economic cooperation enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement.
    ANPR cameras are installed on every trunk road and every police vehicle in Britain already.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    Also good locals for the conservatives with a conservative gain from labour and running them close in Darlington. It does make you wonder if parts of the Country see labour as trying to frustrate the process and they may be getting very annoyed with the EU demands
    Yup. The Comon Travel Area remains in place, so they don’t need a border for people, only for goods. An electronic customs system for commercial vehicles, backed by ANPR cameras and a few mobile customs officers in the border region for spot checks and tip-offs does the trick.

    Great - so all the UK government needs to do is to demonstrate clearly how this will work and we are done. I am surprised they have not done this already given how simple it is.

    A similar system is already in place on large stretches of the world’s longest land border, between the USA and Canada. It’s not difficult to do if both sides co-operate. But the EU doesn’t want to co-operate.

    As @Big_G_NorthWales says, the constraint remoaner voices on the broadcast media could well backfire in their aims and generate public support for a WTO deal.

    The EU wants to know how such a system would work to guarantee that there would be no change to the status of the Irish border. If it is all so simple, the UK should be able to do that with little difficulty.

  • Options
    Of course it will be Mogg. BoJo, Gove, Rudd, Davies are all too tarnished by an obvious lack of talent/huge ego problem, Hammond isn't a believer. And the party needs someone to restore the faith in these Difficult Times. Remember, its not about what the public thinks in political leadership contests, just what the MPs/members think their party should look like. And Mogg looks sounds and probably smells like a Tory to the rank and file (who appear largely more bonkers than he).

    As for computer/phone devices top end Android is pursuing Apple in the Stupid Handicap with "features" like no headphones socket. But a few hundred quid buys you a brilliant phone that does the vast majority of anything you need.

    And a laptop? Windows 10 was devised by Satan. MacBooks need a bag full of adaptors and cost a Gazillion Pounds. I use a Chromebook - all day battery, high res touch screen, boots in 5 seconds with an OS that works out of the box and is kept constantly updated. Looks like a Macbook, works every time like a Macbook, only a grand cheaper.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Quite a naïve comment given the nature of it. And if we were going to do it why haven't we started preparations? The UK govt evidently has no intention of putting a hard border in.
    It's not naive; you're just arguing that something vast numbers of states manage is beyond us.
    It's beyond us because the UK is not like other states. It's a superstate made up of what remains of a shrunken empire. If we force the issue, it will only lead to the disintegration of the UK.
    That is what you hope for. It does not represent what the UK's inhabitants want.
  • Options

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    Yep - he should know his place. How dare he be utterly pissed off with a lot of deluded Tories who promised nothing would change on the Irish border but - surprise, surprise - have come up with no way of ensuring that.

    There is, of course, one country that does suffer more than Ireland as the result of a chaotic Brexit and I am sitting in the middle of it. Should there be No Deal, we leave the EU and more than 750 trade and regulatory agreements that are related to our membership. The Irish stay in every single one.

    We have come up with a way of ensuring that, agreeing a trade deal with the EU. Unfortunately the EU have decided they don't want to talk about trade so that is entirely and 100% on them.

    The UK hasn't proposed any border barriers whatsoever, the EU is trying to have their cake and eat it too: wanting both to insist there will be a border because they won't talk trade and there can't be a border simultaneously.

    Their Schroedinger's border impossibility will collapse one day, hopefully when they start talking trade. Until then the border issue is entirely in their camp - there is nothing the UK can propose that it hasn't yet.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    It is obliged to under WTO rules. It has no choice. The Brexiteers should have known this. But, as we know, they never bothered to find out.

    [snip]

    That's not necessarily true. Britain has several treaties with Ireland, including the GFA. Interpreted imaginatively, it could be construed to facilitate free trade even outside the EU.

    It might also be worth investigating the status of the 1965 UK-Ireland trade treaty.

    The problem is that the EU is a WTO member state and the Irish would be policing an EU border. It could be argued that Anglo-Irish agreements might take precedence, but that would then involve creating a regulatory border between the RoI and the rest of the EU. IN other words, the UK would essentially require the Irish to pull out of the EU to solve a problem created entirely by the UK.

    Well I’m sure it was a tad awkward when they voted to clear off in 1918, but nobody seems to think that was a bad decision in the long run.
  • Options
    SouthamObserver

    'What compromise would you expect the Irish to make given that the UK signed the Good Friday agreement, which was endorsed overwhelmingly in referenda on both sides of the border, as well as by the British parliament and which has helped to bring about radical and beneficial change tot he island of Ireland?

    I totally agree that right wing Tory English naitonalists would happily trash Ireland north and south, and drive the UK economy into the ground, in order to win a red, white and blue election, but at some stage millions and millions of ordinary British citizens are going to have to deal with the consequences of that. And it will not be pretty.'





    Seriously this is a requirement of a democratic vote that millions of non conservatives voted in. Furthermore the DUP will not agree to stay in the single market and customs union once we have left

    The Government is attempting to achieve an acceptable deal but being held to ransom by an EU backed by a huge remain lobby in the UK including most Parliamentarians

    I am not a right wing English Nationalist (indeed half Welsh, half English) but I am a democrat and expect us to leave the EU no matter the consequences

    I do accept it is a mess but I struggle to comprehend the anger that will be felt if the remain lobby and EU manage to keep us in the EU
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    Also good locals for the conservatives with a conservative gain from labour and running them close in Darlington. It does make you wonder if parts of the Country see labour as trying to frustrate the process and they may be getting very annoyed with the EU demands
    Yup. The Comon Travel Area remains in place, so they don’t need a border for people, only for goods. An electronic customs system for commercial vehicles, backed by ANPR cameras and a few mobile customs officers in the border region for spot checks and tip-offs does the trick.

    Great - so all the UK government needs to do is to demonstrate clearly how this will work and we are done. I am surprised they have not done this already given how simple it is.

    A similar system is already in place on large stretches of the world’s longest land border, between the USA and Canada. It’s not difficult to do if both sides co-operate. But the EU doesn’t want to co-operate.

    As @Big_G_NorthWales says, the constraint remoaner voices on the broadcast media could well backfire in their aims and generate public support for a WTO deal.

    The EU wants to know how such a system would work to guarantee that there would be no change to the status of the Irish border. If it is all so simple, the UK should be able to do that with little difficulty.

    The only way to know how such a system would work is to know what trade deal we have. Until we know what our trade deal is, there is literally no way to deal with the border issue because one depends upon the other.
  • Options

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    Yep - he should know his place. How dare he be utterly pissed off with a lot of deluded Tories who promised nothing would change on the Irish border but - surprise, surprise - have come up with no way of ensuring that.

    There is, of course, one country that does suffer more than Ireland as the result of a chaotic Brexit and I am sitting in the middle of it. Should there be No Deal, we leave the EU and more than 750 trade and regulatory agreements that are related to our membership. The Irish stay in every single one.

    We have come up with a way of ensuring that, agreeing a trade deal with the EU. Unfortunately the EU have decided they don't want to talk about trade so that is entirely and 100% on them.

    The UK hasn't proposed any border barriers whatsoever, the EU is trying to have their cake and eat it too: wanting both to insist there will be a border because they won't talk trade and there can't be a border simultaneously.

    Their Schroedinger's border impossibility will collapse one day, hopefully when they start talking trade. Until then the border issue is entirely in their camp - there is nothing the UK can propose that it hasn't yet.

    We agreed to the EU scheduling, having triggered Article 50 without having the first idea of the issues at stake.

    The UK has yet to grasp that the EU is obliged to have a policed border once the UK leaves the customs union - which we have made clear we are doing. Having said that we are going to leave the customs union and having said that we do not want a policed border, we need to explain how it is all going to work under the schedule of talks that we agreed to. Of course, if we don't there will be no deal and the only country that will suffer more than Ireland as a result of that is the UK.

  • Options

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    It is obliged to under WTO rules. It has no choice. The Brexiteers should have known this. But, as we know, they never bothered to find out.

    [snip]

    That's not necessarily true. Britain has several treaties with Ireland, including the GFA. Interpreted imaginatively, it could be construed to facilitate free trade even outside the EU.

    It might also be worth investigating the status of the 1965 UK-Ireland trade treaty.

    The problem is that the EU is a WTO member state and the Irish would be policing an EU border. It could be argued that Anglo-Irish agreements might take precedence, but that would then involve creating a regulatory border between the RoI and the rest of the EU. IN other words, the UK would essentially require the Irish to pull out of the EU to solve a problem created entirely by the UK.

    Correcting it for you

    By the UK electorate voting in a democratIc refendum
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    This is all a catch 22. We can't work out a solution to the Irish Border question, until we know what our trading relationship with the EU will be.
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    Also with the EU demands
    Yup. The Comon Travel Area remains in place, so they don’t need a border for people, only for goods. An electronic customs system for commercial vehicles, backed by ANPR cameras and a few mobile customs officers in the border region for spot checks and tip-offs does the trick.

    Great - so all the UK government needs to do is to demonstrate clearly how this will work and we are done. I am surprised they have not done this already given how simple it is.

    A similar system is already in place on large stretches of the world’s longest land border, between the USA and Canada. It’s not difficult to do if both sides co-operate. But the EU doesn’t want to co-operate.

    As @Big_G_NorthWales says, the constraint remoaner voices on the broadcast media could well backfire in their aims and generate public support for a WTO deal.

    The EU wants to know how such a system would work to guarantee that there would be no change to the status of the Irish border. If it is all so simple, the UK should be able to do that with little difficulty.

    The only way to know how such a system would work is to know what trade deal we have. Until we know what our trade deal is, there is literally no way to deal with the border issue because one depends upon the other.

    But if the system already exists and is easy to implement, all we need to do is demonstrate that and move onto the trade talks happy in the knowledge that the detail can be sorted once the final deal is agreed.

  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    welshowl said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    Just leave the border as it is now and let the EU erect border posts if it wants to

    It is obliged to under WTO rules. It has no choice. The Brexiteers should have known this. But, as we know, they never bothered to find out.

    [snip]

    That's not necessarily true. Britain has several treaties with Ireland, including the GFA. Interpreted imaginatively, it could be construed to facilitate free trade even outside the EU.

    It might also be worth investigating the status of the 1965 UK-Ireland trade treaty.

    The problem is that the EU is a WTO member state and the Irish would be policing an EU border. It could be argued that Anglo-Irish agreements might take precedence, but that would then involve creating a regulatory border between the RoI and the rest of the EU. IN other words, the UK would essentially require the Irish to pull out of the EU to solve a problem created entirely by the UK.

    Well I’m sure it was a tad awkward when they voted to clear off in 1918, but nobody seems to think that was a bad decision in the long run.
    And 30 years of terrorism and warfare on many different sides, thousands dead, wounded, damaged who can so easily be ignored. How nice to be so stupid....
  • Options

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    Yep - he should know his place. How dare he be utterly pissed off with a lot of deluded Tories who promised nothing would change on the Irish border but - surprise, surprise - have come up with no way of ensuring that.

    There is, of course, one country that does suffer more than Ireland as the result of a chaotic Brexit and I am sitting in the middle of it. Should there be No Deal, we leave the EU and more than 750 trade and regulatory agreements that are related to our membership. The Irish stay in every single one.

    We have come up with a way of ensuring that, agreeing a trade deal with the EU. Unfortunately the EU have decided they don't want to talk about trade so that is entirely and 100% on them.

    The UK hasn't proposed any border barriers whatsoever, the EU is trying to have their cake and eat it too: wanting both to insist there will be a border because they won't talk trade and there can't be a border simultaneously.

    Their Schroedinger's border impossibility will collapse one day, hopefully when they start talking trade. Until then the border issue is entirely in their camp - there is nothing the UK can propose that it hasn't yet.

    We agreed to the EU scheduling, having triggered Article 50 without having the first idea of the issues at stake.

    The UK has yet to grasp that the EU is obliged to have a policed border once the UK leaves the customs union - which we have made clear we are doing. Having said that we are going to leave the customs union and having said that we do not want a policed border, we need to explain how it is all going to work under the schedule of talks that we agreed to. Of course, if we don't there will be no deal and the only country that will suffer more than Ireland as a result of that is the UK.

    If the EU insists there will be a policed border once the UK leaves then we are going to have a policed border. That is on them. We have said that we do not want one and want a trade deal that means one isn't necessary - that is as far as we can go under the scheduling. What else can be said at this stage that hasn't been said?

    Yes we agreed to the scheduling but we also agreed that the issues need a principle agreed not all issues to be ironed out in full. Having agreed the principle of "no hard border" in stage one we need to move on to stage two to ensure how that can be put in place in practice.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    Sean_F said:

    This is all a catch 22. We can't work out a solution to the Irish Border question, until we know what our trading relationship with the EU will be.

    The options don't depend on the precise detail but on the broad category of relationship we want. In the single market and customs union, there no border problem either between Ireland and NI, or NI and GB.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    edited November 2017

    SouthamObserver

    'What compromise would you expect the Irish to make given that the UK signed the Good Friday agreement, which was endorsed overwhelmingly in referenda on both sides of the border, as well as by the British parliament and which has helped to bring about radical and beneficial change tot he island of Ireland?

    I totally agree that right wing Tory English naitonalists would happily trash Ireland north and south, and drive the UK economy into the ground, in order to win a red, white and blue election, but at some stage millions and millions of ordinary British citizens are going to have to deal with the consequences of that. And it will not be pretty.'





    Seriously this is a requirement of a democratic vote that millions of non conservatives voted in. Furthermore the DUP will not agree to stay in the single market and customs union once we have left

    The Government is attempting to achieve an acceptable deal but being held to ransom by an EU backed by a huge remain lobby in the UK including most Parliamentarians

    I am not a right wing English Nationalist (indeed half Welsh, half English) but I am a democrat and expect us to leave the EU no matter the consequences

    I do accept it is a mess but I struggle to comprehend the anger that will be felt if the remain lobby and EU manage to keep us in the EU

    I did not see a hard Irish border on my ballot. I did hear a lot of Leave campaign leaders say that the issue would be resolved easily and that there would be no change to the status quo. I am not arguing for us to stay in the EU. That horse bolted on 24th June 2016. I am merely stating that the promises that were made by the Leave side should be delivered on.

  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    This is all a catch 22. We can't work out a solution to the Irish Border question, until we know what our trading relationship with the EU will be.

    The options don't depend on the precise detail but on the broad category of relationship we want. In the single market and customs union, there no border problem either between Ireland and NI, or NI and GB.
    Except that the single market and customs union have already been ruled out.

    In the single market and customs union but out of the EU is the worst of all worlds, we would have no right to do trade deals, or change domestic rules to suit us and would be required to adopt all EU laws without any say in writing them. Why would anyone in their sane mind want that?
  • Options

    SouthamObserver

    'What compromise would you expect the Irish to make given that the UK signed the Good Friday agreement, which was endorsed overwhelmingly in referenda on both sides of the border, as well as by the British parliament and which has helped to bring about radical and beneficial change tot he island of Ireland?

    I totally agree that right wing Tory English naitonalists would happily trash Ireland north and south, and drive the UK economy into the ground, in order to win a red, white and blue election, but at some stage millions and millions of ordinary British citizens are going to have to deal with the consequences of that. And it will not be pretty.'





    Seriously this is a requirement of a democratic vote that millions of non conservatives voted in. Furthermore the DUP will not agree to stay in the single market and customs union once we have left

    The Government is attempting to achieve an acceptable deal but being held to ransom by an EU backed by a huge remain lobby in the UK including most Parliamentarians

    I am not a right wing English Nationalist (indeed half Welsh, half English) but I am a democrat and expect us to leave the EU no matter the consequences

    I do accept it is a mess but I struggle to comprehend the anger that will be felt if the remain lobby and EU manage to keep us in the EU

    I did not see a hard Irish border on my ballot. I did hear a lot of Leave campaign leaders say that the issue would be resolved easily and that there would be no change to the status quo. I am not arguing for us to stay in the EU. That horse bolted on 24th June 2016. I am merely stating that the promises that were made by the Leave side should be delivered on.

    Which they can be once the EU agrees a trade deal with us.
  • Options

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    Yep - he should know his place. How dare he be utterly pissed off with a lot of deluded Tories who promised nothing would change on the Irish border but - surprise, surprise - have come up with no way of ensuring that.

    There is, of course, one country that does suffer more than Ireland as the result of a chaotic Brexit and I am sitting in the middle of it. Should there be No Deal, we leave the EU and more than 750 trade and regulatory agreements that are related to our membership. The Irish stay in every single one.

    We have come up with a way of ensuring that, agreeing a trade deal with the EU. Unfortunately the EU have decided they don't want to talk about trade so that is entirely and 100% on them.

    The UK hasn't proposed any border barriers whatsoever, the EU is trying to have their cake and eat it too: wanting both to insist there will be a border because they won't talk trade and there can't be a border simultaneously.

    Their Schroedinger's border impossibility will collapse one day, hopefully when they start talking trade. Until then the border issue is entirely in their camp - there is nothing the UK can propose that it hasn't yet.

    We agreed to the EU scheduling, having triggered Article 50 without having the first idea of the issues at stake.

    The UK.

    If the EU insists there will be a policed border once the UK leaves then we are going to have a policed border. That is on them. We have said that we do not want one and want a trade deal that means one isn't necessary - that is as far as we can go under the scheduling. What else can be said at this stage that hasn't been said?

    Yes we agreed to the scheduling but we also agreed that the issues need a principle agreed not all issues to be ironed out in full. Having agreed the principle of "no hard border" in stage one we need to move on to stage two to ensure how that can be put in place in practice.

    All we need to do is show in practical terms how an unpoliced border would work. It's not enough to say we can use cameras and satellites, we need to demonstrate how. If we can do that, the system can be applied to whatever trade deal we end up with.

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    Sean_F said:

    This is all a catch 22. We can't work out a solution to the Irish Border question, until we know what our trading relationship with the EU will be.

    The options don't depend on the precise detail but on the broad category of relationship we want. In the single market and customs union, there no border problem either between Ireland and NI, or NI and GB.
    Except that the single market and customs union have already been ruled out.

    In the single market and customs union but out of the EU is the worst of all worlds, we would have no right to do trade deals, or change domestic rules to suit us and would be required to adopt all EU laws without any say in writing them. Why would anyone in their sane mind want that?

    So, time to come up with a practical proposal for how the Irish border would work under the trade deal that we want. Of course, the problem is that the government does not know what trade deal it wants.

  • Options

    SouthamObserver

    'What compromise would you expect the Irish to make given that the UK signed the Good Friday agreement, which was endorsed overwhelmingly in referenda on both sides of the border, as well as by the British parliament and which has helped to bring about radical and beneficial change tot he island of Ireland?

    I totally agree that right wing Tory English naitonalists would happily trash Ireland north and south, and drive the UK economy into the ground, in order to win a red, white and blue election, but at some stage millions and millions of ordinary British citizens are going to have to deal with the consequences of that. And it will not be pretty.'





    Seriously this is a requirement of a democratic vote that millions of non conservatives voted in. Furthermore the DUP will not agree to stay in the single market and customs union once we have left

    The Government is attempting to achieve an acceptable deal but being held to ransom by an EU backed by a huge remain lobby in the UK including most Parliamentarians

    I am not a right wing English Nationalist (indeed half Welsh, half English) but I am a democrat and expect us to leave the EU no matter the consequences

    I do accept it is a mess but I struggle to comprehend the anger that will be felt if the remain lobby and EU manage to keep us in the EU

    I did not see a hard Irish border on my ballot. I did hear a lot of Leave campaign leaders say that the issue would be resolved easily and that there would be no change to the status quo. I am not arguing for us to stay in the EU. That horse bolted on 24th June 2016. I am merely stating that the promises that were made by the Leave side should be delivered on.

    So to deliver the promises of taking back control of immigration and our laws requires us to leave the single market and customs union, anything else is as good as staying in the EU so we may as well ignore the ballot if that is the case.

    Tonights broadcasts by the media must be getting a lot of people angry and only pushing us towards WTO with the majority view rejecting the EU' s stance
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @seanjonesqc: Before Brexiteers start waving fists at the Irish three points to consider: ...

    @seanjonesqc: 1. The amount of thought we gave to the impact of Brexit on the Irish economy before we voted can be rounded to zero;

    @seanjonesqc: 2. We have inflicted enough harm on the Irish for one aeon as it is.

    @seanjonesqc: 3. They owe us precisely nothing and are every bit as entitled to prioritise their national interests as we are.
  • Options

    SouthamObserver

    'What compromise would you expect the Irish to make given that the UK signed the Good Friday agreement, which was endorsed overwhelmingly in referenda on both sides of the border, as well as by the British parliament and which has helped to bring about radical and beneficial change tot he island of Ireland?

    I totally agree that right wing Tory English naitonalists would happily trash Ireland north and south, and drive the UK economy into the ground, in order to win a red, white and blue election, but at some stage millions and millions of ordinary British citizens are going to have to deal with the consequences of that. And it will not be pretty.'





    Seriously this is a requirement of a democratic vote that millions of non conservatives voted in. Furthermore the DUP will not agree to stay in the single market and customs union once we have left

    The Government is attempting to achieve an acceptable deal but being held to ransom by an EU backed by a huge remain lobby in the UK including most Parliamentarians

    I am not a right wing English Nationalist (indeed half Welsh, half English) but I am a democrat and expect us to leave the EU no matter the consequences

    I do accept it is a mess but I struggle to comprehend the anger that will be felt if the remain lobby and EU manage to keep us in the EU

    I did not see a hard Irish border on my ballot. I did hear a lot of Leave campaign leaders say that the issue would be resolved easily and that there would be no change to the status quo. I am not arguing for us to stay in the EU. That horse bolted on 24th June 2016. I am merely stating that the promises that were made by the Leave side should be delivered on.

    So to deliver the promises of taking back control of immigration and our laws requires us to leave the single market and customs union, anything else is as good as staying in the EU so we may as well ignore the ballot if that is the case.

    Tonights broadcasts by the media must be getting a lot of people angry and only pushing us towards WTO with the majority view rejecting the EU' s stance

    And our solution to taking back control is to leave the one land border we have with the EU unpoliced :-D

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    Sean_F said:

    This is all a catch 22. We can't work out a solution to the Irish Border question, until we know what our trading relationship with the EU will be.

    The options don't depend on the precise detail but on the broad category of relationship we want. In the single market and customs union, there no border problem either between Ireland and NI, or NI and GB.
    Except that the single market and customs union have already been ruled out.

    In the single market and customs union but out of the EU is the worst of all worlds, we would have no right to do trade deals, or change domestic rules to suit us and would be required to adopt all EU laws without any say in writing them. Why would anyone in their sane mind want that?

    So, time to come up with a practical proposal for how the Irish border would work under the trade deal that we want. Of course, the problem is that the government does not know what trade deal it wants.

    We could hardly bottom out a plan whilst the EU have no idea what they are prepared to give us either.

    Hence we go round in circles.

    It's hard not to feel for the Irish, but they have to stick with us a bit.
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    This is all a catch 22. We can't work out a solution to the Irish Border question, until we know what our trading relationship with the EU will be.

    The options don't depend on the precise detail but on the broad category of relationship we want. In the single market and customs union, there no border problem either between Ireland and NI, or NI and GB.
    Except that the single market and customs union have already been ruled out.

    In the single market and customs union but out of the EU is the worst of all worlds, we would have no right to do trade deals, or change domestic rules to suit us and would be required to adopt all EU laws without any say in writing them. Why would anyone in their sane mind want that?

    So, time to come up with a practical proposal for how the Irish border would work under the trade deal that we want. Of course, the problem is that the government does not know what trade deal it wants.

    We could hardly bottom out a plan whilst the EU have no idea what they are prepared to give us either.

    Hence we go round in circles.

    It's hard not to feel for the Irish, but they have to stick with us a bit.

    If we do not want to be part of the singe market and customs union the deal the EU27 will give us is the Canada one. That has become completely clear over the last week.

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    Scott_P said:

    @seanjonesqc: Before Brexiteers start waving fists at the Irish three points to consider: ...

    @seanjonesqc: 1. The amount of thought we gave to the impact of Brexit on the Irish economy before we voted can be rounded to zero;

    @seanjonesqc: 2. We have inflicted enough harm on the Irish for one aeon as it is.

    @seanjonesqc: 3. They owe us precisely nothing and are every bit as entitled to prioritise their national interests as we are.

    You are the Taoiseach or Gerry Adams
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Scott_P said:

    @seanjonesqc: Before Brexiteers start waving fists at the Irish three points to consider: ...

    @seanjonesqc: 1. The amount of thought we gave to the impact of Brexit on the Irish economy before we voted can be rounded to zero;

    @seanjonesqc: 2. We have inflicted enough harm on the Irish for one aeon as it is.

    @seanjonesqc: 3. They owe us precisely nothing and are every bit as entitled to prioritise their national interests as we are.

    Sorry, but anyone whinging about the effect of Brexit on Ireland is as bad as a Brexiteer whinging about the EU not negotiating as we would like.
  • Options

    SouthamObserver

    'What compromise would you expect the Irish to make given that the UK signed the Good Friday agreement, which was endorsed overwhelmingly in referenda on both sides of the border, as well as by the British parliament and which has helped to bring about radical and beneficial change tot he island of Ireland?

    I totally agree that right wing Tory English naitonalists would happily trash Ireland north and south, and drive the UK economy into the ground, in order to win a red, white and blue election, but at some stage millions and millions of ordinary British citizens are going to have to deal with the consequences of that. And it will not be pretty.'





    Seriously this is a requirement of a democratic vote that millions of non conservatives voted in. Furthermore the DUP will not agree to stay in the single market and customs union once we have left

    The Government is attempting to achieve an acceptable deal but being held to ransom by an EU backed by a huge remain lobby in the UK including most Parliamentarians

    I am not a right wing English Nationalist (indeed half Welsh, half English) but I am a democrat and expect us to leave the EU no matter the consequences

    I do accept it is a mess but I struggle to comprehend the anger that will be felt if the remain lobby and EU manage to keep us in the EU

    I did not see a hard Irish border on my ballot. I did hear a lot of Leave campaign leaders say that the issue would be resolved easily and that there would be no change to the status quo. I am not arguing for us to stay in the EU. That horse bolted on 24th June 2016. I am merely stating that the promises that were made by the Leave side should be delivered on.

    So to deliver the promises of taking back control of immigration and our laws requires us to leave the single market and customs union, anything else is as good as staying in the EU so we may as well ignore the ballot if that is the case.

    Tonights broadcasts by the media must be getting a lot of people angry and only pushing us towards WTO with the majority view rejecting the EU' s stance

    And our solution to taking back control is to leave the one land border we have with the EU unpoliced :-D

    There is enough advanced technology to deal with this but that does not suit those wanting Brexit to fail
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    Scott_P said:

    @seanjonesqc: Before Brexiteers start waving fists at the Irish three points to consider: ...



    @seanjonesqc: 3. They owe us precisely nothing and are every bit as entitled to prioritise their national interests as we are.

    Well, we did loan them rather a lot of money and underwrite their banks a few years ago.

    But then, no good deed goes unpunished.

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    Scott_P said:

    @seanjonesqc: Before Brexiteers start waving fists at the Irish three points to consider: ...

    @seanjonesqc: 1. The amount of thought we gave to the impact of Brexit on the Irish economy before we voted can be rounded to zero;

    @seanjonesqc: 2. We have inflicted enough harm on the Irish for one aeon as it is.

    @seanjonesqc: 3. They owe us precisely nothing and are every bit as entitled to prioritise their national interests as we are.

    You are the Taoiseach or Gerry Adams
    Gerry Adams to announce retirement as Sinn Féin president

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/17/gerry-adams-to-announce-retirement-as-sinn-fein-president
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    Sean_F said:

    This is all a catch 22. We can't work out a solution to the Irish Border question, until we know what our trading relationship with the EU will be.

    The options don't depend on the precise detail but on the broad category of relationship we want. In the single market and customs union, there no border problem either between Ireland and NI, or NI and GB.
    Except that the single market and customs union have already been ruled out.

    In the single market and customs union but out of the EU is the worst of all worlds, we would have no right to do trade deals, or change domestic rules to suit us and would be required to adopt all EU laws without any say in writing them. Why would anyone in their sane mind want that?

    So, time to come up with a practical proposal for how the Irish border would work under the trade deal that we want. Of course, the problem is that the government does not know what trade deal it wants.

    We could hardly bottom out a plan whilst the EU have no idea what they are prepared to give us either.

    Hence we go round in circles.

    It's hard not to feel for the Irish, but they have to stick with us a bit.

    WE know we do not want to be in the single market and customs union because we want to end freedom of movement and do our own deals. Part of that will involve regulatory divergence from the EU. If there is regulatory divergence there has to be a policed border regardless of the fine points of the final deal. So, how do we police it? The UK created the problem, it is reasonable to expect the UK to solve it.

  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    @seanjonesqc: Before Brexiteers start waving fists at the Irish three points to consider: ...

    @seanjonesqc: 1. The amount of thought we gave to the impact of Brexit on the Irish economy before we voted can be rounded to zero;

    @seanjonesqc: 2. We have inflicted enough harm on the Irish for one aeon as it is.

    @seanjonesqc: 3. They owe us precisely nothing and are every bit as entitled to prioritise their national interests as we are.

    You are the Taoiseach or Gerry Adams
    Gerry Adams to announce retirement as Sinn Féin president

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/17/gerry-adams-to-announce-retirement-as-sinn-fein-president
    Really
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460


    @OchEye

    My point is it appears “ok” for Ireland ( or 80% of it) to alter its constitutional arrangements via a vote despite the problems it must’ve caused 100 years ago to those alive then but somehow the feeling seems to be with some on here that we can’t because it might cause a “problem” for the Irish. Hmm.

    We can’t work out how to work the border 100% till you know what the trade arrangement is going to be. Obviously. The Irish are just rolling the dice to try to get us to stay in the customs union is my bet because their issue pretty much goes away then. Fair enough from their point but the danger is we all end up playing chicken on the railway line.

    I suspect another 20bn spread over a few years as “ implementation” will unstick the money “sufficiently” and the Irish will be told by their masters in Paris and Berlin ( if they have a govt there) to pipe down and we’ll sort out the border over trade talks.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Gove v JRM with Gove winning by a margin.

    Davis v Rudd more likely with Davis winning
    I assume you accept Boris is out of the equation

    Davis v Rudd would not inspire anyone. I believe it will be someone who is not in the picture but of the leavers Gove is the best qualified and very intelligent
    If it was just members it would be Boris v JRM but Davis and Rudd probably have most support amongst MPs. The leader does not need to be inspiring given Corbyn is the alternative and both Davis and Rudd poll reasonably well with the public, especially Davis in terms of the Tory voteshare he gets against Corbyn with Survation.

    Gove is toxic with the public and polls abysmally which is why he failed to reach the final 2 with MPs in 2016, he is a competent Cabinet Minister but will not be PM
    I rather think an inspiring leader is a must. Corbyn will not be there for ever
    Corbyn will lead Labour at the next general election certainly and competence and experience is more important against him than inspiration
    You have to inspire people to vote for you
    How would @HYUFD know that?
    A damn sight better than you I imagine
  • Options

    SouthamObserver

    'What compromise would you expect the Irish to make given that the UK signed the Good Friday agreement, which was endorsed overwhelmingly in referenda on both sides of the border, as well as by the British parliament and which has helped to bring about radical and beneficial change tot he island of Ireland?

    I totally agree that right wing Tory English naitonalists would happily trash Ireland north and south, and drive the UK economy into the ground, in order to win a red, white and blue election, but at some stage millions and millions of ordinary British citizens are going to have to deal with the consequences of that. And it will not be pretty.'





    Seriously this is a requirement of a democratic vote that millions of non conservatives voted in. Furthermore the DUP will not agree to stay in the single market and customs union once we have left

    The Government is attempting to achieve an acceptable deal but being held to ransom by an EU backed by a huge remain lobby in the UK including most Parliamentarians

    I am not a right wing English Nationalist (indeed half Welsh, half English) but I am a democrat and expect us to leave the EU no matter the consequences

    I do accept it is a mess but I struggle to comprehend the anger that will be felt if the remain lobby and EU manage to keep us in the EU

    I did not see a hard Irish border on my ballot. I did hear a lot of Leave campaign leaders say that the issue would be resolved easily and that there would be no change to the status quo. I am not arguing for us to stay in the EU. That horse bolted on 24th June 2016. I am merely stating that the promises that were made by the Leave side should be delivered on.

    So to deliver the promises of taking back control of immigration and our laws requires us to leave the single market and customs union, anything else is as good as staying in the EU so we may as well ignore the ballot if that is the case.

    Tonights broadcasts by the media must be getting a lot of people angry and only pushing us towards WTO with the majority view rejecting the EU' s stance

    And our solution to taking back control is to leave the one land border we have with the EU unpoliced :-D

    There is enough advanced technology to deal with this but that does not suit those wanting Brexit to fail

    So all the UK needs to do is show how the technology will work in practice. Why haven't we done that?

  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    @seanjonesqc: Before Brexiteers start waving fists at the Irish three points to consider: ...

    @seanjonesqc: 1. The amount of thought we gave to the impact of Brexit on the Irish economy before we voted can be rounded to zero;

    @seanjonesqc: 2. We have inflicted enough harm on the Irish for one aeon as it is.

    @seanjonesqc: 3. They owe us precisely nothing and are every bit as entitled to prioritise their national interests as we are.

    You are the Taoiseach or Gerry Adams
    Gerry Adams to announce retirement as Sinn Féin president

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/17/gerry-adams-to-announce-retirement-as-sinn-fein-president
    Really
    I wonder if Jezza will be at the retirement dinner?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    Sean_F said:

    This is all a catch 22. We can't work out a solution to the Irish Border question, until we know what our trading relationship with the EU will be.

    The options don't depend on the precise detail but on the broad category of relationship we want. In the single market and customs union, there no border problem either between Ireland and NI, or NI and GB.
    Except that the single market and customs union have already been ruled out.

    In the single market and customs union but out of the EU is the worst of all worlds, we would have no right to do trade deals, or change domestic rules to suit us and would be required to adopt all EU laws without any say in writing them. Why would anyone in their sane mind want that?
    You're absolutely right, which is why having exhausted all other options, we will not leave the EU at all.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847

    SouthamObserver

    'What compromise would you expect the Irish to make given that the UK signed the Good Friday agreement, which was endorsed overwhelmingly in referenda on both sides of the border, as well as by the British parliament and which has helped to bring about radical and beneficial change tot he island of Ireland?

    I totally agree that right wing Tory English naitonalists would happily trash Ireland north and south, and drive the UK economy into the ground, in order to win a red, white and blue election, but at some stage millions and millions of ordinary British citizens are going to have to deal with the consequences of that. And it will not be pretty.'





    Seriously this is a requirement of a democratic vote that millions of non conservatives voted in. Furthermore the DUP will not agree to stay in the single market and customs union once we have left

    The Government is attempting to achieve an acceptable deal but being held to ransom by an EU backed by a huge remain lobby in the UK including most Parliamentarians

    I am not a right wing English Nationalist (indeed half Welsh, half English) but I am a democrat and expect us to leave the EU no matter the consequences

    I do accept it is a mess but I struggle to comprehend the anger that will be felt if the remain lobby and EU manage to keep us in the EU

    I did not see a hard Irish border on my ballot. I did hear a lot of Leave campaign leaders say that the issue would be resolved easily and that there would be no change to the status quo. I am not arguing for us to stay in the EU. That horse bolted on 24th June 2016. I am merely stating that the promises that were made by the Leave side should be delivered on.

    So to deliver the promises of taking back control of immigration and our laws requires us to leave the single market and customs union, anything else is as good as staying in the EU so we may as well ignore the ballot if that is the case.

    Tonights broadcasts by the media must be getting a lot of people angry and only pushing us towards WTO with the majority view rejecting the EU' s stance

    And our solution to taking back control is to leave the one land border we have with the EU unpoliced :-D

    The UK are choosing to think of innovative solutions to a delicate problem.

    The EU are saying that there has to be a border but that it’s simultaneously unacceptable to have one - while also refusing to talk about the nature of the trade deal that impacts how the border needs to work.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Gove v JRM with Gove winning by a margin.

    Davis v Rudd more likely with Davis winning
    I assume you accept Boris is out of the equation

    Davis v Rudd would not inspire anyone. I believe it will be someone who is not in the picture but of the leavers Gove is the best qualified and very intelligent
    If it was just members it would be Boris v JRM but Davis and Rudd probably have most support amongst MPs. The leader does not need to be inspiring given Corbyn is the alternative and both Davis and Rudd poll reasonably well with the public, especially Davis in terms of the Tory voteshare he gets against Corbyn with Survation.

    Gove is toxic with the public and polls abysmally which is why he failed to reach the final 2 with MPs in 2016, he is a competent Cabinet Minister but will not be PM
    I rather think an inspiring leader is a must. Corbyn will not be there for ever
    Corbyn will lead Labour at the next general election certainly and competence and experience is more important against him than inspiration
    You have to inspire people to vote for you
    After almost a decade in government you are not going to win on inspiration, that is impossible, especially given that is what Corbyn is trying to run on.

    You win on competence and experience and fear of the alternative.
  • Options
    A lot of hot air and guff on here about the intra-Irish border. Apparently the EU are "imposing" a hard border.

    Cobblers.

    It is WE who want a border - we're leaving the EU so we can control our border, control immigration blah blah. And to do that we propose no border and no checks and its the EU imposing it. Apparently.

    States and in this case the EU have external borders. Most of them have a physical border with border checks and customs officials. That's what the EU has with non-EU / non-bilateral agreement countries. Indeed its alleged failure to enforce the border is what so enraged so much of our right-whinge loons over the last few years as waves of migrants and refugees came in. So we were outraged that the EU weren't enforcing their external border properly. And now that we will be external we are outraged that the EU will do what we wanted.

    Apparently stupid people think the UK is a special case. That other people's rules - whether they be EU or WTO - shouldn't apply to us. How shocking that these non-UK external bodies disagree. EU rules dictate a hard border. We knew that when our cretin government said no CU no EEA. WTO rules insist what we do for one we do for all. Shock horror say stupid delusional people.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    welshowl said:

    Fair enough from their point but the danger is we all end up playing chicken on the railway line.

    Theresa May invited the EU to play chicken when she said we would leave the single market and customs union but expect everything to carry on pretty much as it is now.
  • Options

    SouthamObserver

    'What compromise would you expect the Irish to make given that the UK signed the Good Friday agreement, which was endorsed overwhelmingly in referenda on both sides of the border, as well as by the British parliament and which has helped to bring about radical and beneficial change tot he island of Ireland?

    I totally agree that right wing Tory English naitonalists would happily trash Ireland north and south, and drive the UK economy into the ground, in order to win a red, white and blue election, but at some stage millions and millions of ordinary British citizens are going to have to deal with the consequences of that. And it will not be pretty.'





    Seriously this is a requirement of a democratic vote that millions of non conservatives voted in. Furthermore the DUP will not agree to stay in the single market and customs union once we have left

    The Government is attempting to achieve an acceptable deal but being held to ransom by an EU backed by a huge remain lobby in the UK including most Parliamentarians

    I am not a right wing English Nationalist (indeed half Welsh, half English) but I am a democrat and expect us to leave the EU no matter the consequences

    I do accept it is a mess but I struggle to comprehend the anger that will be felt if the remain lobby and EU manage to keep us in the EU

    I did not see a hard Irish border on my ballot. I did hear a lot of Leave campaign leaders say that the issue would be resolved easily and that there would be no change to the status quo. I am not arguing for us to stay in the EU. That horse bolted on 24th June 2016. I am merely stating that the promises that were made by the Leave side should be delivered on.

    So to deliver the promises of taking back control of immigration and our laws requires us to leave the single market and customs union, anything else is as good as staying in the EU so we may as well ignore the ballot if that is the case.

    Tonights broadcasts by the media must be getting a lot of people angry and only pushing us towards WTO with the majority view rejecting the EU' s stance

    And our solution to taking back control is to leave the one land border we have with the EU unpoliced :-D

    There is enough advanced technology to deal with this but that does not suit those wanting Brexit to fail

    So all the UK needs to do is show how the technology will work in practice. Why haven't we done that?

    The EU are deaf and do not want to engage - it does not suit their purpose
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,907
    On the topic of TM... if she can survive Brexit - why would she not think to last longer?
    It’s not as if the Tory party is blessed with talented alternatives - those front runners all have major problems.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited November 2017

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Quite a naïve comment given the nature of it. And if we were going to do it why haven't we started preparations? The UK govt evidently has no intention of putting a hard border in.
    It's not naive; you're just arguing that something vast numbers of states manage is beyond us.
    It's beyond us because the UK is not like other states. It's a superstate made up of what remains of a shrunken empire. If we force the issue, it will only lead to the disintegration of the UK.
    Firstly the UK is not a superstate it is in effect a collection of states now much like Germany, the USA or Australia and you were constantly bleating before June on how Brexit would lead to the disintegration of the UK too and proven completely wrong.
  • Options

    SouthamObserver

    'What compromise would you expect the Irish to make given that the UK signed the Good Friday agreement, which was endorsed overwhelmingly in referenda on both sides of the border, as well as by the British parliament and which has helped to bring about radical and beneficial change tot he island of Ireland?

    I totally agree that right wing Tory English naitonalists would happily trash Ireland north and south, and drive the UK economy into the ground, in order to win a red, white and blue election, but at some stage millions and millions of ordinary British citizens are going to have to deal with the consequences of that. And it will not be pretty.'





    Seriously this is a requirement of a democratic vote that millions of non conservatives voted in. Furthermore the DUP will not agree to stay in the single market and customs union once we have left

    The Government is attempting to achieve an acceptable deal but being held to ransom by an EU backed by a huge remain lobby in the UK including most Parliamentarians

    I am not a right wing English Nationalist (indeed half Welsh, half English) but I am a democrat and expect us to leave the EU no matter the consequences

    I do accept it is a mess but I struggle to comprehend the anger that will be felt if the remain lobby and EU manage to keep us in the EU

    I did not see a hard Irish border on my ballot. I did hear a lot of Leave campaign leaders say that the issue would be resolved easily and that there would be no change to the status quo. I am not arguing for us to stay in the EU. That horse bolted on 24th June 2016. I am merely stating that the promises that were made by the Leave side should be delivered on.

    So case.

    Tonights broadcasts by the media must be getting a lot of people angry and only pushing us towards WTO with the majority view rejecting the EU' s stance

    And our solution to taking back control is to leave the one land border we have with the EU unpoliced :-D

    There is enough advanced technology to deal with this but that does not suit those wanting Brexit to fail

    So all the UK needs to do is show how the technology will work in practice. Why haven't we done that?

    The EU are deaf and do not want to engage - it does not suit their purpose

    So go public. Show voters in the EU27 that the UK is serious by explaining what our plans are. If there is a technology-led solution, demonstrate it to the Irish people and let them put their government under pressure.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847
    edited November 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    On the topic of TM... if she can survive Brexit - why would she not think to last longer?
    It’s not as if the Tory party is blessed with talented alternatives - those front runners all have major problems.

    Indeed so. If Brexit is seen to go well, and Corbyn remains in place on the other side, it’s not impossible to see her go into the next election still as leader. As we have seen in the last couple of weeks as two three four potential challengers have excluded themselves from the running.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis may actually lead the Tories into the next general election, he polls at least as well as any other in terms of what the Tory voteshare would be under his leadership

    Officially denied this morning
    No leadership contender ever says point blank they want to replace the current leader until they do
    There must be 50 ways to deflect that question. He chose to deny any wish to follow Theresa May and has said that he will step aside from his current role once Brexit is completed. I'm inclined to take him at his word.
    I should think by the end of Brexit he will be broken. If not long before.
    Also, if Brexit is a success, May stays for at least the time being (the final deal will be done by her, not him, after all), and if it's not then that's his career over, as a more trivial consequence. Davis will be 70 by Brexit Day; his last chance went when Cameron won in 2010.
    So what, Trump and Sanders and Biden are well over 70 and Corbyn is almost 70
    Yes, the next US presidential race is going to resemble the Kremlin c.1983 or China under Deng.

    But I do think it's relevant: being PM is hard physical work and I would rather the job were done by someone younger (and someone who's more of a team player, for that matter).
    You may do but especially with Brexit etc it will probably be an old hand and it is also questionable why a young figure would want to become Tory leader nearly 10 years into a Tory government, young cardinals like old popes etc
    What, like John Major did - who then went on to win the next election?

    The young cardinals / old popes is irrelevant. A Tory leader who takes the party from government to opposition will lose his or her job no matter how old they are.
    Major was middle aged not young and only got the job after being made Chancellor.

    Churchill lost in government and continued on, the younger Heath lost in February 1974 and continued for one more general election before being forced out
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    I can't figure out whether the EU behemoth wants the UK to remain or whether they want to shaft us.

    There is clearly no middle ground.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Quite a naïve comment given the nature of it. And if we were going to do it why haven't we started preparations? The UK govt evidently has no intention of putting a hard border in.
    It's not naive; you're just arguing that something vast numbers of states manage is beyond us.
    It's beyond us because the UK is not like other states. It's a superstate made up of what remains of a shrunken empire. If we force the issue, it will only lead to the disintegration of the UK.
    Firstly the UK is not a superstate it is in effect a collection of states now much like Germany, the USA or Australia and you were constantly bleating before June on how Brecit would lead to the disintegration of the UK too.
    It seems my warnings were prescient.

    By the way, Germany, the USA and Australia all have federal constitutions. The UK does not.
  • Options

    I can't figure out whether the EU behemoth wants the UK to remain or whether they want to shaft us.

    There is clearly no middle ground.

    Both probably
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    SouthamObserver

    'What compromise would you expect the Irish to make given that the UK signed the Good Friday agreement, which was endorsed overwhelmingly in referenda on both sides of the border, as well as by the British parliament and which has helped to bring about radical and beneficial change tot he island of Ireland?

    I totally agree that right wing Tory English naitonalists would happily trash Ireland north and south, and drive the UK economy into the ground, in order to win a red, white and blue election, but at some stage millions and millions of ordinary British citizens are going to have to deal with the consequences of that. And it will not be pretty.'





    Seriously this is a requirement of a democratic vote that millions of non conservatives voted in. Furthermore the DUP will not agree to stay in the single market and customs union once we have left

    The Government is attempting to achieve an acceptable deal but being held to ransom by an EU backed by a huge remain lobby in the UK including most Parliamentarians

    I am not a right wing English Nationalist (indeed half Welsh, half English) but I am a democrat and expect us to leave the EU no matter the consequences

    I do accept it is a mess but I struggle to comprehend the anger that will be felt if the remain lobby and EU manage to keep us in the EU

    I did not see a hard Irish border on my ballot. I did hear a lot of Leave campaign leaders say that the issue would be resolved easily and that there would be no change to the status quo. I am not arguing for us to stay in the EU. That horse bolted on 24th June 2016. I am merely stating that the promises that were made by the Leave side should be delivered on.

    So to deliver the promises of taking back control of immigration and our laws requires us to leave the single market and customs union, anything else is as good as staying in the EU so we may as well ignore the ballot if that is the case.

    Tonights broadcasts by the media must be getting a lot of people angry and only pushing us towards WTO with the majority view rejecting the EU' s stance

    And our solution to taking back control is to leave the one land border we have with the EU unpoliced :-D

    The UK are choosing to think of innovative solutions to a delicate problem.

    The EU are saying that there has to be a border but that it’s simultaneously unacceptable to have one - while also refusing to talk about the nature of the trade deal that impacts how the border needs to work.

    What is our innovative solution to the fact that under WTO rules the EU is obliged to police its external borders?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I can't figure out whether the EU behemoth wants the UK to remain or whether they want to shaft us.

    The UK can't figure out if they want to remain or get shafted
  • Options
    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Favourite amongst whom?

    The media? The betting markets?

    The Tory party is a very ruthless organisation. It exists to win elections. Power its its raison d'etre.

    Theresa May will not be permitted to lead the Tories into the 20222 election. But the Tories are unlikely too to replace her with an Old Etonian toff who thinks abortion is a mortal sin.

    Somewhere on those Tory backbenches is the person who can lead the Tories to victory at the next election. Sitting opposite May right now on the Labour front bench is the man who will prevent Labour winning.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Quite a naïve comment given the nature of it. And if we were going to do it why haven't we started preparations? The UK govt evidently has no intention of putting a hard border in.
    It's not naive; you're just arguing that something vast numbers of states manage is beyond us.
    It's beyond us because the UK is not like other states. It's a superstate made up of what remains of a shrunken empire. If we force the issue, it will only lead to the disintegration of the UK.
    Firstly the UK is not a superstate it is in effect a collection of states now much like Germany, the USA or Australia and you were constantly bleating before June on how Brecit would lead to the disintegration of the UK too.
    It seems my warnings were prescient.

    By the way, Germany, the USA and Australia all have federal constitutions. The UK does not.
    How did the SNP do in June?
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    I can't figure out whether the EU behemoth wants the UK to remain or whether they want to shaft us.

    There is clearly no middle ground.

    They want the latter to result in the former. It's not an unreasonable strategy.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    What is our innovative solution to the fact that under WTO rules the EU is obliged to police its external borders?

    The innovative solution of many of the Brexiteers seems to be that if the rest of the world doesn't work the way it should to facilitate their ideal Brexit, they'll all have to jolly well buck their ideas up.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799

    I can't figure out whether the EU behemoth wants the UK to remain or whether they want to shaft us.

    There is clearly no middle ground.

    Perhaps they want both.
  • Options
    stevef said:

    Favourite amongst whom?

    The media? The betting markets?

    The Tory party is a very ruthless organisation. It exists to win elections. Power its its raison d'etre.

    Theresa May will not be permitted to lead the Tories into the 20222 election. But the Tories are unlikely too to replace her with an Old Etonian toff who thinks abortion is a mortal sin.

    Somewhere on those Tory backbenches is the person who can lead the Tories to victory at the next election. Sitting opposite May right now on the Labour front bench is the man who will prevent Labour winning.

    +1
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Quite a naïve comment given the nature of it. And if we were going to do it why haven't we started preparations? The UK govt evidently has no intention of putting a hard border in.
    It's not naive; you're just arguing that something vast numbers of states manage is beyond us.
    It's beyond us because the UK is not like other states. It's a superstate made up of what remains of a shrunken empire. If we force the issue, it will only lead to the disintegration of the UK.
    Firstly the UK is not a superstate it is in effect a collection of states now much like Germany, the USA or Australia and you were constantly bleating before June on how Brecit would lead to the disintegration of the UK too.
    It seems my warnings were prescient.

    By the way, Germany, the USA and Australia all have federal constitutions. The UK does not.
    Only because the English get screwed by being the only ones with no Parliament ( yes Mr Blair that’s your asymmetric devolution balls up), which may well have fed into why deep England voted to reclaim something of itself in such numbers in June 2016.

    Again it seems the English (and the Catalans these days I guess?) are the only ones not allowed independence?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    Sean_F said:

    I can't figure out whether the EU behemoth wants the UK to remain or whether they want to shaft us.

    There is clearly no middle ground.

    Perhaps they want both.
    It's a question of moral hazard.

    The UK became overexposed to national exceptionalism and is now looking for a bailout on the basis that it is too big to fail. The EU sees it differently and can't afford to set a precedent by rewarding our political failure.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to take the Taoiseach down a peg or two. He's being remarkably bolshy for the leader of the country which will be the most damaged by a chaotic Brexit, and which was happy to take billions in bilateral loans from the U.K. government when their banking system broke.

    I suppose that's a marginal improvement on the usual Leaver line that the Republic of Ireland should rejoin the UK.
    I just don't think his public announcements show anything like the maturity, balance and basic diplomacy of Merkel, Macron etc.
    You don't think he has a point? It is a national disgrace that Britain has been unable to propose anything workable on the question of the Irish border.
    National disgrace is overcooking it. I think the government has made a fundamental mistake in being so afraid of a 'hard' border in Northern Ireland. If they want to have a border poll as a result then so be it; the tail should not wag the dog.
    Who will police a hard border?
    'Hard' borders are normal in >90% of cases around the world. Somehow we'd manage.
    Quite a naïve comment given the nature of it. And if we were going to do it why haven't we started preparations? The UK govt evidently has no intention of putting a hard border in.
    It's not naive; you're just arguing that something vast numbers of states manage is beyond us.
    It's beyond us because the UK is not like other states. It's a superstate made up of what remains of a shrunken empire. If we force the issue, it will only lead to the disintegration of the UK.
    Firstly the UK is not a superstate it is in effect a collection of states now much like Germany, the USA or Australia and you were constantly bleating before June on how Brecit would lead to the disintegration of the UK too.
    It seems my warnings were prescient.

    By the way, Germany, the USA and Australia all have federal constitutions. The UK does not.
    The SNP lost almost half their seats, your warnings proved to be complete rubbish.

    Germany, the USA and Australia all have state and regional and City Parliaments and Assemblies as we now have in Scotland, Wales, NI and London. The UK is now much more of a Federal state than it was a century ago.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    RoyalBlue said:

    I can't figure out whether the EU behemoth wants the UK to remain or whether they want to shaft us.

    There is clearly no middle ground.

    They want the latter to result in the former. It's not an unreasonable strategy.
    Well that will end well won’t it?

    The EU seems not to give a fig where we will all be in 15 or 30 years time. They just want the cash over the next three to five years. Daft.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    stevef said:

    Favourite amongst whom?

    The media? The betting markets?

    The Tory party is a very ruthless organisation. It exists to win elections. Power its its raison d'etre.

    Theresa May will not be permitted to lead the Tories into the 20222 election. But the Tories are unlikely too to replace her with an Old Etonian toff who thinks abortion is a mortal sin.

    Somewhere on those Tory backbenches is the person who can lead the Tories to victory at the next election. Sitting opposite May right now on the Labour front bench is the man who will prevent Labour winning.

    Corbyn may prevent Labour winning an overall majority, he may not prevent them forming a minority government.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847
    edited November 2017
    RoyalBlue said:

    I can't figure out whether the EU behemoth wants the UK to remain or whether they want to shaft us.

    There is clearly no middle ground.

    They want the latter to result in the former. It's not an unreasonable strategy.
    They want to beat us so hard that we keep coming back for more. I think they underestimate the resolve of Britons to just walk away.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    welshowl said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I can't figure out whether the EU behemoth wants the UK to remain or whether they want to shaft us.

    There is clearly no middle ground.

    They want the latter to result in the former. It's not an unreasonable strategy.
    Well that will end well won’t it?

    The EU seems not to give a fig where we will all be in 15 or 30 years time. They just want the cash over the next three to five years. Daft.
    This is the exact opposite of the truth. The EU is playing a very long game, and isn't only thinking of relations with the UK (or any future states that emerge on its territory).

    Brexit cannot be appeased.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I can't figure out whether the EU behemoth wants the UK to remain or whether they want to shaft us.

    There is clearly no middle ground.

    They want the latter to result in the former. It's not an unreasonable strategy.
    Well that will end well won’t it?

    The EU seems not to give a fig where we will all be in 15 or 30 years time. They just want the cash over the next three to five years. Daft.
    This is the exact opposite of the truth. The EU is playing a very long game, and isn't only thinking of relations with the UK (or any future states that emerge on its territory).

    Brexit cannot be appeased.
    Quite. Keep them in line by threats. Can’t have all this voting free will lark.

    Pathetic, and the reason we should leave, at all costs if need be.

    Anyway off out.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    welshowl said:

    Quite. Keep them in line by threats. Can’t have all this voting free will lark.

    It's the lying demagoguery lark that's the problem. A free vote based on the facts is something I look forward to.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    edited November 2017
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I can't figure out whether the EU behemoth wants the UK to remain or whether they want to shaft us.

    There is clearly no middle ground.

    They want the latter to result in the former. It's not an unreasonable strategy.
    Well that will end well won’t it?

    The EU seems not to give a fig where we will all be in 15 or 30 years time. They just want the cash over the next three to five years. Daft.
    This is the exact opposite of the truth. The EU is playing a very long game, and isn't only thinking of relations with the UK (or any future states that emerge on its territory).

    Brexit cannot be appeased.
    Quite. Keep them in line by threats. Can’t have all this voting free will lark.

    Pathetic, and the reason we should leave, at all costs if need be.

    Anyway off out.
    I am really coming round to the idea that the EU are strengthening the Brexit resolve.

    And add in the media and those in the UK refusing to accept the vote
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Of course it will be Mogg. BoJo, Gove, Rudd, Davies are all too tarnished by an obvious lack of talent/huge ego problem, Hammond isn't a believer. And the party needs someone to restore the faith in these Difficult Times. Remember, its not about what the public thinks in political leadership contests, just what the MPs/members think their party should look like. And Mogg looks sounds and probably smells like a Tory to the rank and file (who appear largely more bonkers than he).

    As for computer/phone devices top end Android is pursuing Apple in the Stupid Handicap with "features" like no headphones socket. But a few hundred quid buys you a brilliant phone that does the vast majority of anything you need.

    And a laptop? Windows 10 was devised by Satan. MacBooks need a bag full of adaptors and cost a Gazillion Pounds. I use a Chromebook - all day battery, high res touch screen, boots in 5 seconds with an OS that works out of the box and is kept constantly updated. Looks like a Macbook, works every time like a Macbook, only a grand cheaper.

    Whats the performance like? One of my main reasons for using Macs is that Excel never seems to crash, even with complex 75mb models.....

  • Options
    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    Favourite amongst whom?

    The media? The betting markets?

    The Tory party is a very ruthless organisation. It exists to win elections. Power its its raison d'etre.

    Theresa May will not be permitted to lead the Tories into the 20222 election. But the Tories are unlikely too to replace her with an Old Etonian toff who thinks abortion is a mortal sin.

    Somewhere on those Tory backbenches is the person who can lead the Tories to victory at the next election. Sitting opposite May right now on the Labour front bench is the man who will prevent Labour winning.

    Corbyn may prevent Labour winning an overall majority, he may not prevent them forming a minority government.
    A minority government is no good to Corbyn. He would have to pursue moderate policies to get the support of the Liberals. The red blooded socialism he believes in would be impossible to get through the House. Corbyn would choke on the Blairite moderation he claims he so hates. Why not have a moderate leader in the first place who can get a majority?

    (Actually I dont think Corbyn will even lead a minority government).
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2017
    US civil rights activist Jesse Jackson has been diagnosed with Parkinson's disease.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42030565
  • Options
    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    Favourite amongst whom?

    The media? The betting markets?

    The Tory party is a very ruthless organisation. It exists to win elections. Power its its raison d'etre.

    Theresa May will not be permitted to lead the Tories into the 20222 election. But the Tories are unlikely too to replace her with an Old Etonian toff who thinks abortion is a mortal sin.

    Somewhere on those Tory backbenches is the person who can lead the Tories to victory at the next election. Sitting opposite May right now on the Labour front bench is the man who will prevent Labour winning.

    Corbyn may prevent Labour winning an overall majority, he may not prevent them forming a minority government.
    A minority government is no good to Corbyn. He would have to pursue moderate policies to get the support of the Liberals. The red blooded socialism he believes in would be impossible to get through the House. Corbyn would choke on the Blairite moderation he claims he so hates. Why not have a moderate leader in the first place who can get a majority?

    (Actually I dont think Corbyn will even lead a minority government).
    And he would get zero of his Marxist policies through the HOL including trying to abolish them
  • Options
    DUP spokesman, Sammy Wilson, trashing the Irish PM on Sky just now

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    edited November 2017

    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    Favourite amongst whom?

    The media? The betting markets?

    The Tory party is a very ruthless organisation. It exists to win elections. Power its its raison d'etre.

    Theresa May will not be permitted to lead the Tories into the 20222 election. But the Tories are unlikely too to replace her with an Old Etonian toff who thinks abortion is a mortal sin.

    Somewhere on those Tory backbenches is the person who can lead the Tories to victory at the next election. Sitting opposite May right now on the Labour front bench is the man who will prevent Labour winning.

    Corbyn may prevent Labour winning an overall majority, he may not prevent them forming a minority government.
    A minority government is no good to Corbyn. He would have to pursue moderate policies to get the support of the Liberals. The red blooded socialism he believes in would be impossible to get through the House. Corbyn would choke on the Blairite moderation he claims he so hates. Why not have a moderate leader in the first place who can get a majority?

    (Actually I dont think Corbyn will even lead a minority government).
    And he would get zero of his Marxist policies through the HOL including trying to abolish them
    On the contrary. I think if the Lords was seen as blocking even a minority government with democratic legitimacy that would be the fastest route to its abolition. Indeed one of the few ways I could see Corbyn winning a majority would be if the Lords blocked a wholly unworkable but highly popular bill - e.g. Housing or tuition fees - and he went to the country on 'rich plutocrats vs. ordinary people.'

    Admittedly the last time that strategy was tried it failed to produce a clear majority for the Liberals, but it was enough to cause years of constitutional turmoil only really ended in 1922.
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    Oxford college introduces compulsory classes on 'cultural appropriation' for students

    Magdalen College will run the mandatory workshops for freshers starting from next year, where they will be taught about racism, institutional racism, cultural appropriation and implicit bias.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/11/17/oxford-college-introduces-compulsory-classeson-cultural-appropriation/

    Sigh....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    DUP spokesman, Sammy Wilson, trashing the Irish PM on Sky just now

    Is he one of those people whose strengthened resolve is turning him purple?
  • Options

    DUP spokesman, Sammy Wilson, trashing the Irish PM on Sky just now

    Is he one of those people whose strengthened resolve is turning him purple?
    Another nasty comment
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    Favourite amongst whom?

    The media? The betting markets?

    The Tory party is a very ruthless organisation. It exists to win elections. Power its its raison d'etre.

    Theresa May will not be permitted to lead the Tories into the 20222 election. But the Tories are unlikely too to replace her with an Old Etonian toff who thinks abortion is a mortal sin.

    Somewhere on those Tory backbenches is the person who can lead the Tories to victory at the next election. Sitting opposite May right now on the Labour front bench is the man who will prevent Labour winning.

    Corbyn may prevent Labour winning an overall majority, he may not prevent them forming a minority government.
    A minority government is no good to Corbyn. He would have to pursue moderate policies to get the support of the Liberals. The red blooded socialism he believes in would be impossible to get through the House. Corbyn would choke on the Blairite moderation he claims he so hates. Why not have a moderate leader in the first place who can get a majority?

    (Actually I dont think Corbyn will even lead a minority government).
    Even if he has to rely on SNP and LD support his legislation would be traditional Labour not Blairite even if he was not able to get all the left wing proposals he wants through.

    There will certainly not be a moderate Labour leader replacing Corbyn before the next general election and on current polling it would be a Labour minority government
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    DUP accusing the EU of using Ireland
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2017
    New Thread...so we can carry on the same argument as every other thread for the past year.
This discussion has been closed.