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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Do you want to bet on some Robert Mugabe related betting marke

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited November 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Do you want to bet on some Robert Mugabe related betting markets? Now you can

In news that will shock most punters, Paddy Power become the first and only bookmaker to have some Robert Mugabe related bets in light of the recent attempted coup d’état in Zimbabwe.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • Zimbabwe is not listed on "country Mugabe takes refuge in" yet it seems the obvious choice, so either 14/1 "any other" is value or, and this is far more likely, the small print excludes the option that he stays on his own country, and PP hangs on to your money. I can't be bothered to look.
  • Second! Like Remain!
  • As for the second market, given the wording, it’s a market I wouldn’t touch with somebody else’s barge poll, but if you have any tips, feel free to share them.

    Surprised neither Malaysia nor Singapore on the list as reportedly he has money property there...so 14/1 on “any other” might be worth a small flutter....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,569
    Who would have bet a few months ago that of Robert Mugabe, Angela Merkel and Theresa May; the British PM would be most stable in office by the end of the year?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,996
    Fourth.

    Betting on Mugabe doesn't appeal at all.

    I fear an unhappy ending for the country, more of the same. But I wouldn't want to bet on it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    As for the second market, given the wording, it’s a market I wouldn’t touch with somebody else’s barge poll, but if you have any tips, feel free to share them.

    Surprised neither Malaysia nor Singapore on the list as reportedly he has money property there...so 14/1 on “any other” might be worth a small flutter....

    £1.33 is what PP has me limited to, but Any Other is the value. Several African options as well as Europe and Asia.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sandpit said:

    Who would have bet a few months ago that of Robert Mugabe, Angela Merkel and Theresa May; the British PM would be most stable in office by the end of the year?

    We haven't reached the end of the year yet.

    What odds would you give on May outlasting Merkel?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,996
    A block of flats is on fire in Hampstead.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,569

    Sandpit said:

    Who would have bet a few months ago that of Robert Mugabe, Angela Merkel and Theresa May; the British PM would be most stable in office by the end of the year?

    We haven't reached the end of the year yet.

    What odds would you give on May outlasting Merkel?
    I think Mrs May is safe this year, my guess is that she probably resigns as we leave the EU mid-2019.

    Merkel is looking at a second election, which in theory produces a similar result to last time, but we know that people don’t like being asked again just because the politicians could agree. Merkel’s head could be the price for a new coalition to be formed, but she still has high support numbers.

    I’d probably say about 6/4 on May to last longer, what do you reckon?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Who would have bet a few months ago that of Robert Mugabe, Angela Merkel and Theresa May; the British PM would be most stable in office by the end of the year?

    We haven't reached the end of the year yet.

    What odds would you give on May outlasting Merkel?
    I think Mrs May is safe this year, my guess is that she probably resigns as we leave the EU mid-2019.

    Merkel is looking at a second election, which in theory produces a similar result to last time, but we know that people don’t like being asked again just because the politicians could agree. Merkel’s head could be the price for a new coalition to be formed, but she still has high support numbers.

    I’d probably say about 6/4 on May to last longer, what do you reckon?
    On the other hand Merkel is leader of the biggest party by a comfortable distance, with no viable coalition of her opponents, and we see in TM how a compromised leader can cling to power. She has 54% approval ratings as Chancellor.
  • IanB2 said:

    A block of flats is on fire in Hampstead.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,569
    Sad news, one death in the fire but sounds like now under control.

  • Long read:

    Britain is seen neither as a once great power struggling for relevance, nor as a victor entitled to special rank, nor as a heritage theme park. Of course, any picture is complex and multivariate, but by and large Britain is viewed with warm respect for its vibrancy, culture, entrepreneurialism, and openness, and as an exemplar of liberty and democracy.

    This view is backed by the facts. The United Kingdom’s global influence might be thought of along three dimensions: cultural, economic, and political. I will explore each of these before examining the impact of more recent events on Britain’s global standing and whether fragmentation of the UK would weaken it


    http://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i256/britains_standing_on_the_world_stage.aspx
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,588
    Jesus, a friend of mine lives on Daleham Gardens.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,265
    Off-topic:

    Following on from the rather spectacular GT crash at Macau I posted yesterday, below is the rather spectacular ending to the main GP crash. It should perhaps be titled "How not to win."



    (skip to two minutes in for the start of the real action).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,265
    I have zero confidence that a change in leadership a the top of Zanu-PF will improve the lot of the ordinary Zimbabwean at all. Does anyone see any hope in this mighty mess?
  • @JosiasJessop thanks for both links- genuinely brilliant
  • UK at 250/1 might be value as a special longshot.

    Mugabe has always had a love/hate relationship with us and I can see, in extreme circumstances, him begging for refuge.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,569

    Off-topic:

    Following on from the rather spectacular GT crash at Macau I posted yesterday, below is the rather spectacular ending to the main GP crash. It should perhaps be titled "How not to win."

    tps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhwlEkehgbk

    (skip to two minutes in for the start of the real action).

    Gotta love Macau, always action-packed races there!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,265
    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    Following on from the rather spectacular GT crash at Macau I posted yesterday, below is the rather spectacular ending to the main GP crash. It should perhaps be titled "How not to win."

    tps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhwlEkehgbk

    (skip to two minutes in for the start of the real action).

    Gotta love Macau, always action-packed races there!
    Got to disagree. The stories from this year's event are one fatality, one massive pile-up and one race that was exciting only because of a crash. It may be exciting for the fans (fatality notwithstanding), but it's not racing.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,264

    I have zero confidence that a change in leadership a the top of Zanu-PF will improve the lot of the ordinary Zimbabwean at all. Does anyone see any hope in this mighty mess?

    Rather depends who it changes to. If it goes to the most likely person, the so called 'crocodile', then no. It seems that Zanu-PF internal politics is stuck in a rut dominated by events 40+ years in the past. I think this will probably go the way of most 'revolutions' in that it exchanges one oppressor for another rather than ends the oppression.
  • But despite claims that the Cabinet committee agreed a continuing role for the European Court of Justice to decide the rights of EU citizens after Brexit, HuffPost has been told that “the ECJ is unresolved”. A hybrid version of the court may be needed for issues such as trade.

    In the meeting, Brexiteers were outnumbered by six to four and will be even more of a minority when the full Cabinet meets on Tuesday.


    http://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/cabinet-brexiteers-agree-to-increase-uk-divorce-bill-if-eu-and-uk-jump-together-on-trade-talks_uk_5a13cb5fe4b0aa32975d74fe/
  • eekeek Posts: 2,004
    ToryJim said:

    I have zero confidence that a change in leadership a the top of Zanu-PF will improve the lot of the ordinary Zimbabwean at all. Does anyone see any hope in this mighty mess?

    Rather depends who it changes to. If it goes to the most likely person, the so called 'crocodile', then no. It seems that Zanu-PF internal politics is stuck in a rut dominated by events 40+ years in the past. I think this will probably go the way of most 'revolutions' in that it exchanges one oppressor for another rather than ends the oppression.
    Isn’t this a middle management revolution where the managers want the old ways to continue rather than a changing of the guard with the risks that entails for those who may not have been as honest as they could have been
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,996
    eek said:

    ToryJim said:

    I have zero confidence that a change in leadership a the top of Zanu-PF will improve the lot of the ordinary Zimbabwean at all. Does anyone see any hope in this mighty mess?

    Rather depends who it changes to. If it goes to the most likely person, the so called 'crocodile', then no. It seems that Zanu-PF internal politics is stuck in a rut dominated by events 40+ years in the past. I think this will probably go the way of most 'revolutions' in that it exchanges one oppressor for another rather than ends the oppression.
    Isn’t this a middle management revolution where the managers want the old ways to continue rather than a changing of the guard with the risks that entails for those who may not have been as honest as they could have been
    That is my fear also. The other more hopeful possibility is that the popular celebrations around Mugabe's departure takes the lid off something that can't be put back, and/or that the successor is willing to play Khrushchev after Stalin.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812
    Surely the little detail missing here is that this man is a mass murdering criminal who used murder and violence to retain power throughout his long reign? There must be countless crimes against humanity that he could be prosecuted for and the charges for which he faces impeachment are a joke, simply confirming that ZanuPF are accessories to his crimes.

    Anywhere he goes therefore has to keep him and his wife out of the reach of the ICC for his remaining years. That seems to me to rule out the UK for a start. In fact I would be looking at the red on this map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court#/media/File:ICC_member_states.svg

    As a full member of the Court his presence would be an embarrassment to South Africa now. They have enough problems persuading the world that the rule of law still applies there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,569

    Sandpit said:

    Off-topic:

    Following on from the rather spectacular GT crash at Macau I posted yesterday, below is the rather spectacular ending to the main GP crash. It should perhaps be titled "How not to win."

    tps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhwlEkehgbk

    (skip to two minutes in for the start of the real action).

    Gotta love Macau, always action-packed races there!
    Got to disagree. The stories from this year's event are one fatality, one massive pile-up and one race that was exciting only because of a crash. It may be exciting for the fans (fatality notwithstanding), but it's not racing.
    Yes it was sad that young Daniel Hegarty lost his life, motorbikes and street circuits are not a good combination.

    The rest of the weekend though, full of action, would be a great event to attend. I know Mr Dancer disagrees, but I love watching the top drivers going around a track that’s narrow, bumpy and temporary in nature. Watching the F3 race where the leader binned it on the last corner is nothing if not exciting.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,264
    eek said:

    ToryJim said:

    I have zero confidence that a change in leadership a the top of Zanu-PF will improve the lot of the ordinary Zimbabwean at all. Does anyone see any hope in this mighty mess?

    Rather depends who it changes to. If it goes to the most likely person, the so called 'crocodile', then no. It seems that Zanu-PF internal politics is stuck in a rut dominated by events 40+ years in the past. I think this will probably go the way of most 'revolutions' in that it exchanges one oppressor for another rather than ends the oppression.
    Isn’t this a middle management revolution where the managers want the old ways to continue rather than a changing of the guard with the risks that entails for those who may not have been as honest as they could have been
    Possibly, I don't really pay all that much attention to the inner workings of Zimbabwean politics.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,600
    ToryJim said:



    Possibly, I don't really pay all that much attention to the inner workings of Zimbabwean politics.

    Then why bother to comment? Some of us are actually interested.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,996

    Long read:

    Britain is seen neither as a once great power struggling for relevance, nor as a victor entitled to special rank, nor as a heritage theme park. Of course, any picture is complex and multivariate, but by and large Britain is viewed with warm respect for its vibrancy, culture, entrepreneurialism, and openness, and as an exemplar of liberty and democracy.

    This view is backed by the facts. The United Kingdom’s global influence might be thought of along three dimensions: cultural, economic, and political. I will explore each of these before examining the impact of more recent events on Britain’s global standing and whether fragmentation of the UK would weaken it


    http://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i256/britains_standing_on_the_world_stage.aspx

    Thanks for the link; you are right that this is an interesting and informative read. More a defence of the UK than a specific commentary on Brexit, but the risks of the path we are taking are set out very clearly, and the bits you selected as quotes only exemplify the first part of the essay.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,613
    DavidL said:

    Surely the little detail missing here is that this man is a mass murdering criminal who used murder and violence to retain power throughout his long reign? There must be countless crimes against humanity that he could be prosecuted for and the charges for which he faces impeachment are a joke, simply confirming that ZanuPF are accessories to his crimes.

    Anywhere he goes therefore has to keep him and his wife out of the reach of the ICC for his remaining years. That seems to me to rule out the UK for a start. In fact I would be looking at the red on this map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court#/media/File:ICC_member_states.svg

    As a full member of the Court his presence would be an embarrassment to South Africa now. They have enough problems persuading the world that the rule of law still applies there.

    They currently seem to be in a right muddle over the ICC in South Africa, don't they? However, I doubt if Mugabe would want to stay there permanently.

    Malaysia, Singapore and China are all on the red side in your map, and he has quite close links with all of them especially Singapore.

    The question is whether, having refused to resign, he will be allowed to leave the country. If he had gone quietly I doubt if there would have been a problem. Being dragged out kicking and screaming might be the excuse needed to put him on trial, although how ZANU-PF could do that without admitting they're all Mafia-style crooks and thugs I don't know.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,600

    Long read:

    Britain is seen neither as a once great power struggling for relevance, nor as a victor entitled to special rank, nor as a heritage theme park. Of course, any picture is complex and multivariate, but by and large Britain is viewed with warm respect for its vibrancy, culture, entrepreneurialism, and openness, and as an exemplar of liberty and democracy.

    This view is backed by the facts. The United Kingdom’s global influence might be thought of along three dimensions: cultural, economic, and political. I will explore each of these before examining the impact of more recent events on Britain’s global standing and whether fragmentation of the UK would weaken it


    Britain remains well-liked and respected for its strengths, but we are seen as currently eccentric and unpredictable in our politics.

    Frankly it's hard to disagree.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely the little detail missing here is that this man is a mass murdering criminal who used murder and violence to retain power throughout his long reign? There must be countless crimes against humanity that he could be prosecuted for and the charges for which he faces impeachment are a joke, simply confirming that ZanuPF are accessories to his crimes.

    Anywhere he goes therefore has to keep him and his wife out of the reach of the ICC for his remaining years. That seems to me to rule out the UK for a start. In fact I would be looking at the red on this map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court#/media/File:ICC_member_states.svg

    As a full member of the Court his presence would be an embarrassment to South Africa now. They have enough problems persuading the world that the rule of law still applies there.

    They currently seem to be in a right muddle over the ICC in South Africa, don't they? However, I doubt if Mugabe would want to stay there permanently.

    Malaysia, Singapore and China are all on the red side in your map, and he has quite close links with all of them especially Singapore.

    The question is whether, having refused to resign, he will be allowed to leave the country. If he had gone quietly I doubt if there would have been a problem. Being dragged out kicking and screaming might be the excuse needed to put him on trial, although how ZANU-PF could do that without admitting they're all Mafia-style crooks and thugs I don't know.
    I think permanent has a slightly different meaning at 93 and in poor health. First class medical services are another priority. He has looted his country on a fairly wholesale basis, even by Marxist standards, so a legal system that allowed his family to keep their ill-gotten wealth is another consideration.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,264

    ToryJim said:



    Possibly, I don't really pay all that much attention to the inner workings of Zimbabwean politics.

    Then why bother to comment? Some of us are actually interested.
    Well I pay sufficient attention to comment just not sufficient to want to do a PhD thesis. Plus if I wasn't interested I wouldn't be engaging in whatever discussion is taking place it is just in the very long list of geopolitical minutiae that interest me the mechanics of the leadership rivalries in Zanu-PF is somewhere way down the list.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,613
    DavidL said:

    He has looted his country on a fairly wholesale basis, even by Marxist standards, so a legal system that allowed his family to keep their ill-gotten wealth is another consideration.

    Mischievous, David! The spinning noise you can hear is Lenin turning in his mausoleum.

    Truthful, of course, but mischievous!
  • Long read:

    Britain is seen neither as a once great power struggling for relevance, nor as a victor entitled to special rank, nor as a heritage theme park. Of course, any picture is complex and multivariate, but by and large Britain is viewed with warm respect for its vibrancy, culture, entrepreneurialism, and openness, and as an exemplar of liberty and democracy.

    This view is backed by the facts. The United Kingdom’s global influence might be thought of along three dimensions: cultural, economic, and political. I will explore each of these before examining the impact of more recent events on Britain’s global standing and whether fragmentation of the UK would weaken it


    Britain remains well-liked and respected for its strengths, but we are seen as currently eccentric and unpredictable in our politics.

    Frankly it's hard to disagree.
    Eccentricity is a national trait to be cherished. I remember one comment on the globally very well received 2012 Olympics opening “Tonight was the night the rest of the world said “Okaaay.....and edged slightly away....”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,996
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:



    Possibly, I don't really pay all that much attention to the inner workings of Zimbabwean politics.

    Then why bother to comment? Some of us are actually interested.
    Well I pay sufficient attention to comment just not sufficient to want to do a PhD thesis. Plus if I wasn't interested I wouldn't be engaging in whatever discussion is taking place it is just in the very long list of geopolitical minutiae that interest me the mechanics of the leadership rivalries in Zanu-PF is somewhere way down the list.
    Then you are welcome to comment. Nick is right that your earlier post was just spam, adding nothing to the discussion.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely the little detail missing here is that this man is a mass murdering criminal who used murder and violence to retain power throughout his long reign? There must be countless crimes against humanity that he could be prosecuted for and the charges for which he faces impeachment are a joke, simply confirming that ZanuPF are accessories to his crimes.

    Anywhere he goes therefore has to keep him and his wife out of the reach of the ICC for his remaining years. That seems to me to rule out the UK for a start. In fact I would be looking at the red on this map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court#/media/File:ICC_member_states.svg

    As a full member of the Court his presence would be an embarrassment to South Africa now. They have enough problems persuading the world that the rule of law still applies there.

    They currently seem to be in a right muddle over the ICC in South Africa, don't they? However, I doubt if Mugabe would want to stay there permanently.

    Malaysia, Singapore and China are all on the red side in your map, and he has quite close links with all of them especially Singapore.

    The question is whether, having refused to resign, he will be allowed to leave the country. If he had gone quietly I doubt if there would have been a problem. Being dragged out kicking and screaming might be the excuse needed to put him on trial, although how ZANU-PF could do that without admitting they're all Mafia-style crooks and thugs I don't know.
    I think permanent has a slightly different meaning at 93 and in poor health. First class medical services are another priority. He has looted his country on a fairly wholesale basis, even by Marxist standards, so a legal system that allowed his family to keep their ill-gotten wealth is another consideration.
    It’s not just him, is it. His ‘lady wife’ has a few question marks around her.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,096
    edited November 2017
    Would need to get clarity on "Congo" before betting - do you mean Republic of Congo, or Democratic Republic of Congo, Paddy Power? There's a big river between them called the, er, Congo....

  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    Long read:

    Britain is seen neither as a once great power struggling for relevance, nor as a victor entitled to special rank, nor as a heritage theme park. Of course, any picture is complex and multivariate, but by and large Britain is viewed with warm respect for its vibrancy, culture, entrepreneurialism, and openness, and as an exemplar of liberty and democracy.

    This view is backed by the facts. The United Kingdom’s global influence might be thought of along three dimensions: cultural, economic, and political. I will explore each of these before examining the impact of more recent events on Britain’s global standing and whether fragmentation of the UK would weaken it


    Britain remains well-liked and respected for its strengths, but we are seen as currently eccentric and unpredictable in our politics.

    Frankly it's hard to disagree.
    Eccentricity is a national trait to be cherished. I remember one comment on the globally very well received 2012 Olympics opening “Tonight was the night the rest of the world said “Okaaay.....and edged slightly away....”
    After Danny Boyle's opening ceremony, I'm sure a lot of British people felt exactly the same way about London....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,096

    Long read:

    Britain is seen neither as a once great power struggling for relevance, nor as a victor entitled to special rank, nor as a heritage theme park. Of course, any picture is complex and multivariate, but by and large Britain is viewed with warm respect for its vibrancy, culture, entrepreneurialism, and openness, and as an exemplar of liberty and democracy.

    This view is backed by the facts. The United Kingdom’s global influence might be thought of along three dimensions: cultural, economic, and political. I will explore each of these before examining the impact of more recent events on Britain’s global standing and whether fragmentation of the UK would weaken it


    Britain remains well-liked and respected for its strengths, but we are seen as currently eccentric and unpredictable in our politics.

    Frankly it's hard to disagree.
    Eccentricity is a national trait to be cherished. I remember one comment on the globally very well received 2012 Olympics opening “Tonight was the night the rest of the world said “Okaaay.....and edged slightly away....”
    It was also the start of a period when the world had to reassess just how brilliant our Olympians could be, after a lengthy period of under-achieving on the world stage.

    Brexit, anyone?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,692
    edited November 2017

    Would need to get clarity on "Congo" before betting - do you mean Republic of Congo, or Democratic Republic of Congo, Paddy Power? There's a big river between them called the, er, Congo....

    Boy that was simpler when one went by Zaire.

    Pity there's no people's democratic Republic of Congo, so we'd know which was the communist dictatorship.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,096
    kle4 said:

    Would need to get clarity on "Congo" before betting - do you mean Republic of Congo, or Democratic Republic of Congo, Paddy Power? There's a big river between them called the, er, Congo....

    Boy that was simpler when one went by Zaire.

    Pity there's no people's democratic Republic of Congo, so we'd know which was the communist dictatorship.
    Along the Congo river in Brazzaville (Reublic of Congo) is a low block building where de Gaulle spent some of WW2. Back then, the DRC was the Belgian Congo, RC was French Equatorial Africa. Say what you like, but you knew where you were with colonialism...
  • TonyE said:

    Long read:

    Britain is seen neither as a once great power struggling for relevance, nor as a victor entitled to special rank, nor as a heritage theme park. Of course, any picture is complex and multivariate, but by and large Britain is viewed with warm respect for its vibrancy, culture, entrepreneurialism, and openness, and as an exemplar of liberty and democracy.

    This view is backed by the facts. The United Kingdom’s global influence might be thought of along three dimensions: cultural, economic, and political. I will explore each of these before examining the impact of more recent events on Britain’s global standing and whether fragmentation of the UK would weaken it


    Britain remains well-liked and respected for its strengths, but we are seen as currently eccentric and unpredictable in our politics.

    Frankly it's hard to disagree.
    Eccentricity is a national trait to be cherished. I remember one comment on the globally very well received 2012 Olympics opening “Tonight was the night the rest of the world said “Okaaay.....and edged slightly away....”
    After Danny Boyle's opening ceremony, I'm sure a lot of British people felt exactly the same way about London....
    Apparently the Chinese State TV commentators were enthusiastically providing context and explaining things until the queen jumped out of the helicopter - which left them lost for words...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077

    kle4 said:

    Would need to get clarity on "Congo" before betting - do you mean Republic of Congo, or Democratic Republic of Congo, Paddy Power? There's a big river between them called the, er, Congo....

    Boy that was simpler when one went by Zaire.

    Pity there's no people's democratic Republic of Congo, so we'd know which was the communist dictatorship.
    Along the Congo river in Brazzaville (Reublic of Congo) is a low block building where de Gaulle spent some of WW2. Back then, the DRC was the Belgian Congo, RC was French Equatorial Africa. Say what you like, but you knew where you were with colonialism...
    Take a look at the gdp/capita chart for the Republic of Congo.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/congo/gdp-per-capita

    Date of independence 1960....
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    TonyE said:

    Long read:

    Britain is seen neither as a once great power struggling for relevance, nor as a victor entitled to special rank, nor as a heritage theme park. Of course, any picture is complex and multivariate, but by and large Britain is viewed with warm respect for its vibrancy, culture, entrepreneurialism, and openness, and as an exemplar of liberty and democracy.

    This view is backed by the facts. The United Kingdom’s global influence might be thought of along three dimensions: cultural, economic, and political. I will explore each of these before examining the impact of more recent events on Britain’s global standing and whether fragmentation of the UK would weaken it


    Britain remains well-liked and respected for its strengths, but we are seen as currently eccentric and unpredictable in our politics.

    Frankly it's hard to disagree.
    Eccentricity is a national trait to be cherished. I remember one comment on the globally very well received 2012 Olympics opening “Tonight was the night the rest of the world said “Okaaay.....and edged slightly away....”
    After Danny Boyle's opening ceremony, I'm sure a lot of British people felt exactly the same way about London....
    Apparently the Chinese State TV commentators were enthusiastically providing context and explaining things until the queen jumped out of the helicopter - which left them lost for words...
    I think that was the only bit I liked!
  • I do not usually bet on these sorts of markets but if I did the 14/1 offers for "Any Other" is very tempting as Singapore, Dubai and even Madagascar have been mentioned as possible places.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,077
    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    The real question in Zimbabwe is how much of the money he's squirrelled away will Mugabe be allowed/able to keep. If he keeps loads of it with the agreement of the incoming govt, I expect he'll go to South Africa and live in relative luxury for a short time.

    IF he is forced to flee with nothing and the incoming govt go about seizing his assets, then he's likely to go somewhere that will look after him in the style to which he has become accustomed. Where would that be?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Who would have bet a few months ago that of Robert Mugabe, Angela Merkel and Theresa May; the British PM would be most stable in office by the end of the year?

    Indeed, Mugabe will be impeached and replaced by Mnangagwa within the next few weeks.

    With the CDU voteshare likely to fall further in any new election and a CDU and Green coalition likely to fall well short of a majority Merkel may also be replaced in the next few weeks or months by a CDU or CSU leader willing to lead a minority government with confidence and supply from the FDP and maybe even the AfD which is something Merkel will not do.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,130

    Long read:

    Britain is seen neither as a once great power struggling for relevance, nor as a victor entitled to special rank, nor as a heritage theme park. Of course, any picture is complex and multivariate, but by and large Britain is viewed with warm respect for its vibrancy, culture, entrepreneurialism, and openness, and as an exemplar of liberty and democracy.

    This view is backed by the facts. The United Kingdom’s global influence might be thought of along three dimensions: cultural, economic, and political. I will explore each of these before examining the impact of more recent events on Britain’s global standing and whether fragmentation of the UK would weaken it


    Britain remains well-liked and respected for its strengths, but we are seen as currently eccentric and unpredictable in our politics.

    Frankly it's hard to disagree.
    I'd say no more than anywhere else in Europe at the moment. France has just repudiated their major parties in favour of an inexperienced leader who seems to be bungling everything he lays his hands on. Germany has been without a government since their election and now need another one, which will just produce a similar results and may end with Merkel having to resign. Italy is seeing the rehabilitation of Bunga-Bunga man, Spain has a huge separatist issue.

    Voters all over Europe are revolting against the status quo. The UK is hardly alone in this, we've just gone about it in a different way (Brexit, the rise of Corbyn).
  • Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,600
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:



    Possibly, I don't really pay all that much attention to the inner workings of Zimbabwean politics.

    Then why bother to comment? Some of us are actually interested.
    Well I pay sufficient attention to comment just not sufficient to want to do a PhD thesis. Plus if I wasn't interested I wouldn't be engaging in whatever discussion is taking place it is just in the very long list of geopolitical minutiae that interest me the mechanics of the leadership rivalries in Zanu-PF is somewhere way down the list.
    I didn't mean to be snarky - of course you're welcome to comment. Your post just seemed to be saying you weren't interested in the key factor in Zimbabwe (the future direction of the country really does depend on the leadership rivalries in this case) - no reason why you should be, of course, but it sounded a bit dismissive, like Verhofstadt in his most zealous Anglosceptic mode. Anyway, no worries.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,692

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.
  • kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.
    May needs to show some fri**ing statesmanship, ignore the DM, and get a deal for the UK's future.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,208
    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 37,208

    May needs to show some fri**ing statesmanship

    First time for everything I guess...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,735

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    Personally I think May is doing absolutely the right thing, offering the EU a substantial sum for FTA negotiations to show she is listening to Remainers concerns about the economy while still committing to leaving the EU and the single market and replacing free movement with a points system to properly respect the Leave vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,692
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
    Yes, probably.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,996
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
    Indeed. The dreadful choice is between paying to become somewhat worse off, or not paying to become significantly worse off.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,820
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
    Indeed. The dreadful choice is between paying to become somewhat worse off, or not paying to become significantly worse off.
    Only because you don't value the upside that others perceive
  • At last, some really important Brexit stuff.

    'Eurotunnel renamed Getlink in preparation for post-Brexit era'

    http://tinyurl.com/yakqenhp

    The patriotic Peruvian will be tumescent.

    'The French company, which operates the Channel Tunnel, has chosen the admirably Anglo-Saxon name to “mark the group’s passage into an exciting new era for mobility infrastructures”.'
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,479
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    Personally I think May is doing absolutely the right thing, offering the EU a substantial sum for FTA negotiations to show she is listening to Remainers concerns about the economy while still committing to leaving the EU and the single market and replacing free movement with a points system to properly respect the Leave vote.
    Someone posted a Financial Times analysis a little way back which showed 40-60 bn was the right sort of range. It includes what we have committed to in the seven year budget, plus the unfunded obligations of the common enterprise, less our share of the EU's assets. If we get the bottom of the range we will have done well and if we get the top it will mean the EU has done well, but it's not a big deal in the scheme of things.

    The thing that stings is the unfunded liabilities, as it shows the financial mismanagement of the EU. But if you invest in a badly run business you still have to pay debts on divestment. We should be glad that no more of these debts will be run up in our name.
  • Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
    I am not so sure. I believe there is a considerable part of the electorate just want out no matter the economic cost.

    The phone ins and vox pops I have heard were very much anti the EU demanding money and also demanding to know why we are not out already.

    The fact TM has got the cabinet to agree to increase the offer to circa 40 billion is a plus for her but there is no way she will get an increase on that if it is demanded.

    There is no rational in the arguments over Brexit
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    Personally I think May is doing absolutely the right thing, offering the EU a substantial sum for FTA negotiations to show she is listening to Remainers concerns about the economy while still committing to leaving the EU and the single market and replacing free movement with a points system to properly respect the Leave vote.
    At £40bn, that is two years contributions to the end of 2021 - plus £20Bn into clearing the RAL (about £300 bn total).

    EU won't settle for it, because they will want up to pay at least 12% of the RAL (around £35 Bn) on top of the two years. We will have to face them down now, because there is no way we can go much further without having been seen to totally capitulate. This is where the nation states have to look to their own interests and press the commission to act in their economic interest rather than the Commission's Political one.They might not - so now its the moment when accidental 'No Deal' becomes most likely.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,479
    People yesterday said the ECJ's role that the cabinet agreed to is only for the transition. Would someone mind posting a link for this? It wasn't in Peston's blog.
  • Scott_P said:

    May needs to show some fri**ing statesmanship

    First time for everything I guess...
    I'm not holding my breath...
  • Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
    I am not so sure. I believe there is a considerable part of the electorate just want out no matter the economic cost.

    The phone ins and vox pops I have heard were very much anti the EU demanding money and also demanding to know why we are not out already.

    The fact TM has got the cabinet to agree to increase the offer to circa 40 billion is a plus for her but there is no way she will get an increase on that if it is demanded.

    There is no rational in the arguments over Brexit
    You're right, the arguments over Brexit are dominated by emotional responses, it's a terrible way to run a country.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,479
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
    Indeed. The dreadful choice is between paying to become somewhat worse off, or not paying to become significantly worse off.
    The problem was the third option was to be dragged intractably into a union where the French and Germans made all the rules for us.
  • TonyE said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    Personally I think May is doing absolutely the right thing, offering the EU a substantial sum for FTA negotiations to show she is listening to Remainers concerns about the economy while still committing to leaving the EU and the single market and replacing free movement with a points system to properly respect the Leave vote.
    At £40bn, that is two years contributions to the end of 2021 - plus £20Bn into clearing the RAL (about £300 bn total).

    EU won't settle for it, because they will want up to pay at least 12% of the RAL (around £35 Bn) on top of the two years. We will have to face them down now, because there is no way we can go much further without having been seen to totally capitulate. This is where the nation states have to look to their own interests and press the commission to act in their economic interest rather than the Commission's Political one.They might not - so now its the moment when accidental 'No Deal' becomes most likely.
    This is a big moment - December meeting will be green for trade discussions or red and we walk away
  • Elliot said:

    People yesterday said the ECJ's role that the cabinet agreed to is only for the transition. Would someone mind posting a link for this? It wasn't in Peston's blog.

    You don't trust Peston do you - there is no way the ECJ will have a role once the transistion period is over
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,996
    Elliot said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
    Indeed. The dreadful choice is between paying to become somewhat worse off, or not paying to become significantly worse off.
    The problem was the third option was to be dragged intractably into a union where the French and Germans made all the rules for us.
    Yet the UK has had at least as much influence on the development of the EU as any other nation - as per the long read linked downthread.

    Our future is to continue following most of these rules - just as Canada and Mexico's freedom of action is heavily constrained by their powerful neighbour - whilst no longer having any influence over their determination.
  • Elliot said:

    People yesterday said the ECJ's role that the cabinet agreed to is only for the transition. Would someone mind posting a link for this? It wasn't in Peston's blog.

    Peston’s claim hasn’t had much support anywhere else....
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,479
    TonyE said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    Personally I think May is doing absolutely the right thing, offering the EU a substantial sum for FTA negotiations to show she is listening to Remainers concerns about the economy while still committing to leaving the EU and the single market and replacing free movement with a points system to properly respect the Leave vote.
    At £40bn, that is two years contributions to the end of 2021 - plus £20Bn into clearing the RAL (about £300 bn total).

    EU won't settle for it, because they will want up to pay at least 12% of the RAL (around £35 Bn) on top of the two years. We will have to face them down now, because there is no way we can go much further without having been seen to totally capitulate. This is where the nation states have to look to their own interests and press the commission to act in their economic interest rather than the Commission's Political one.They might not - so now its the moment when accidental 'No Deal' becomes most likely.
    The RAL and the contributions to 2021 are the same thing aren't they? The RAL is just the amount of money in the budget round that extends to 2021.

    I believe the extra cash May has offered represents the unfunded liabilities, less our share of assets.
  • Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
    I am not so sure. I believe there is a considerable part of the electorate just want out no matter the economic cost.

    The phone ins and vox pops I have heard were very much anti the EU demanding money and also demanding to know why we are not out already.

    The fact TM has got the cabinet to agree to increase the offer to circa 40 billion is a plus for her but there is no way she will get an increase on that if it is demanded.

    There is no rational in the arguments over Brexit
    You're right, the arguments over Brexit are dominated by emotional responses, it's a terrible way to run a country.
    Most of the country is bored of it all I suspect.

    'Wake me up, when there's a result' type of attitude.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,096
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Would need to get clarity on "Congo" before betting - do you mean Republic of Congo, or Democratic Republic of Congo, Paddy Power? There's a big river between them called the, er, Congo....

    Boy that was simpler when one went by Zaire.

    Pity there's no people's democratic Republic of Congo, so we'd know which was the communist dictatorship.
    Along the Congo river in Brazzaville (Reublic of Congo) is a low block building where de Gaulle spent some of WW2. Back then, the DRC was the Belgian Congo, RC was French Equatorial Africa. Say what you like, but you knew where you were with colonialism...
    Take a look at the gdp/capita chart for the Republic of Congo.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/congo/gdp-per-capita

    Date of independence 1960....
    They had a particularly vicious civil war in 1997. I first went to Brazzaville some 5 years later, and the place was still scarred. Had to stay in a small (but very clean) guest house in Brazzaville - Glenys Kinnock was in town with an EU delegation, and they had bagged the best hotel in the city - natch. When I opened the windows in the morning, it looked out onto a small courtyard. That courtyard still had many hundred bullet holes, grenade fragmentation marks up the walls, even what looked like a tank shell that had gone through a wall.

    But I have many happy memories of the place. Went with a not-at-all closeted gay colleague, and we happily walked about the place with never a moment of feeling for our safety. Watched young kids going down the rapids of the Congo River - saluted one for his bravery, who gave me the crispest salute back, as he whizzed down to what looked impending doom - until I watched him walk back a few moments later, to repeat the process with his laughing mates. Birding down by the Congo was spectacular - sat in a dug-out canoe paddled by a guy in just a loincloth (don't tell Health and Safety back in the office!) to watch clouds of swallows and martins, a big roost of rock pratincoles - and an Egyptian Plover glide down the side of the boat, so close I could almost touch it.

    The highlight was probably sitting on a first floor balcony overlooking what I guess may have normally been a bus station. There was a crowd of many hundreds, watching a football match. Men v Women. The women had boots, the guys were barefoot. And the women were creaming the guys. Fantastic music playing, cold drink in hand, and all these people whooping in joy. Just showed that, whatever they had recently been through, the human determination to get on with normal shines through.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 15,168
    edited November 2017


    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,479
    IanB2 said:

    Elliot said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
    Indeed. The dreadful choice is between paying to become somewhat worse off, or not paying to become significantly worse off.
    The problem was the third option was to be dragged intractably into a union where the French and Germans made all the rules for us.
    Yet the UK has had at least as much influence on the development of the EU as any other nation - as per the long read linked downthread.

    Our future is to continue following most of these rules - just as Canada and Mexico's freedom of action is heavily constrained by their powerful neighbour - whilst no longer having any influence over their determination.
    Yes, we did until the Eurozone happened, at which point we had to accept an inferior currency system or accept French-German effective rule.

    The government is doing the right thing in leaving the single market and thereby avoiding most of the rules (except for our EU trade).
  • Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
    I am not so sure. I believe there is a considerable part of the electorate just want out no matter the economic cost.

    The phone ins and vox pops I have heard were very much anti the EU demanding money and also demanding to know why we are not out already.

    The fact TM has got the cabinet to agree to increase the offer to circa 40 billion is a plus for her but there is no way she will get an increase on that if it is demanded.

    There is no rational in the arguments over Brexit
    You're right, the arguments over Brexit are dominated by emotional responses, it's a terrible way to run a country.
    But how do you run the Country if the sentiment is anti EU and increasingly so as they are perceived, rightly or wrongly, to blackmail the UK

    TM as a former remainer is attempting an impossible task but is the best hope for a deal that satisfies most but not the extremes on either side
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    Elliot said:

    TonyE said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    Personally I think May is doing absolutely the right thing, offering the EU a substantial sum for FTA negotiations to show she is listening to Remainers concerns about the economy while still committing to leaving the EU and the single market and replacing free movement with a points system to properly respect the Leave vote.
    At £40bn, that is two years contributions to the end of 2021 - plus £20Bn into clearing the RAL (about £300 bn total).

    EU won't settle for it, because they will want up to pay at least 12% of the RAL (around £35 Bn) on top of the two years. We will have to face them down now, because there is no way we can go much further without having been seen to totally capitulate. This is where the nation states have to look to their own interests and press the commission to act in their economic interest rather than the Commission's Political one.They might not - so now its the moment when accidental 'No Deal' becomes most likely.
    The RAL and the contributions to 2021 are the same thing aren't they? The RAL is just the amount of money in the budget round that extends to 2021.

    I believe the extra cash May has offered represents the unfunded liabilities, less our share of assets.
    I think the budget to 2021 is the agreed spend, which is already in the EU budget. The Rest a Liquider is the projects that have been agreed which are not yet budgeted for and therefore appear as a liability to be settled in the next budget round in addition to the scheduled running costs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,996
    MaxPB said:

    Long read:

    Britain is seen neither as a once great power struggling for relevance, nor as a victor entitled to special rank, nor as a heritage theme park. Of course, any picture is complex and multivariate, but by and large Britain is viewed with warm respect for its vibrancy, culture, entrepreneurialism, and openness, and as an exemplar of liberty and democracy.

    This view is backed by the facts. The United Kingdom’s global influence might be thought of along three dimensions: cultural, economic, and political. I will explore each of these before examining the impact of more recent events on Britain’s global standing and whether fragmentation of the UK would weaken it


    Britain remains well-liked and respected for its strengths, but we are seen as currently eccentric and unpredictable in our politics.

    Frankly it's hard to disagree.
    I'd say no more than anywhere else in Europe at the moment. France has just repudiated their major parties in favour of an inexperienced leader who seems to be bungling everything he lays his hands on. Germany has been without a government since their election and now need another one, which will just produce a similar results and may end with Merkel having to resign. Italy is seeing the rehabilitation of Bunga-Bunga man, Spain has a huge separatist issue.

    Voters all over Europe are revolting against the status quo. The UK is hardly alone in this, we've just gone about it in a different way (Brexit, the rise of Corbyn).
    And of course Trump. Post-2008 QE has fed poison into the system that has fuelled inequality and discontent across the developed west. How and where does it end?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,479

    Elliot said:

    People yesterday said the ECJ's role that the cabinet agreed to is only for the transition. Would someone mind posting a link for this? It wasn't in Peston's blog.

    Peston’s claim hasn’t had much support anywhere else....
    Yes, I noticed that. This is something if a litmus test for me so I am keen. To find out the truth.


  • When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,660
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
    Indeed. The dreadful choice is between paying to become somewhat worse off, or not paying to become significantly worse off.
    Only because you don't value the upside that others perceive
    upside in the long run.
  • Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    People yesterday said the ECJ's role that the cabinet agreed to is only for the transition. Would someone mind posting a link for this? It wasn't in Peston's blog.

    Peston’s claim hasn’t had much support anywhere else....
    Yes, I noticed that. This is something if a litmus test for me so I am keen. To find out the truth.
    A good start would be to ignore Peston
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    edited November 2017
    Delete
  • TonyE said:



    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    Single Market - has he told Starmer?
    His remain MPs are furious
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 21,874

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.
    May needs to show some fri**ing statesmanship, ignore the DM, and get a deal for the UK's future.
    There's no doubt we have to pay *something* and/or assume some liabilities, because the EU as a whole has net liabilities. In the same way, if Scotland voted for independence, we'd need to divvy up the UK's assets and liabilities, and Scotland would assume a share of the national debt.


  • When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,479
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Long read:

    Britain is seen neither as a once great power struggling for relevance, nor as a victor entitled to special rank, nor as a heritage theme park. Of course, any picture is complex and multivariate, but by and large Britain is viewed with warm respect for its vibrancy, culture, entrepreneurialism, and openness, and as an exemplar of liberty and democracy.

    This view is backed by the facts. The United Kingdom’s global influence might be thought of along three dimensions: cultural, economic, and political. I will explore each of these before examining the impact of more recent events on Britain’s global standing and whether fragmentation of the UK would weaken it


    Britain remains well-liked and respected for its strengths, but we are seen as currently eccentric and unpredictable in our politics.

    Frankly it's hard to disagree.
    I'd say no more than anywhere else in Europe at the moment. France has just repudiated their major parties in favour of an inexperienced leader who seems to be bungling everything he lays his hands on. Germany has been without a government since their election and now need another one, which will just produce a similar results and may end with Merkel having to resign. Italy is seeing the rehabilitation of Bunga-Bunga man, Spain has a huge separatist issue.

    Voters all over Europe are revolting against the status quo. The UK is hardly alone in this, we've just gone about it in a different way (Brexit, the rise of Corbyn).
    And of course Trump. Post-2008 QE has fed poison into the system that has fuelled inequality and discontent across the developed west. How and where does it end?
    Given what happened in the Eurozone when they didn't have QE, it could have been worse.


  • When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    Starmer has some explaining to do as to labour's position on the single market/customs union as he has given a very good impression that he wants to stay in
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,660



    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 11,364
    Elliot said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    A lot of people woukd object to paying anything. If the Gov isn't willing to face that down they should have gone no deal some while ago.

    The same people who object to paying anything are likely to be the same ones who squeal the loudest when the consequences of no deal are manifest
    Indeed. The dreadful choice is between paying to become somewhat worse off, or not paying to become significantly worse off.
    The problem was the third option was to be dragged intractably into a union where the French and Germans made all the rules for us.
    Not according to John Gummer in the Guardian today.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/16/britain-got-its-way-eu-brexiteers


  • When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    Starmer has some explaining to do as to labour's position on the single market/customs union as he has given a very good impression that he wants to stay in
    They are as hopelessly split as the Tories, just under cover because they are what we used to call 'the Opposition'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,692



    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    Only when he's in power and the first 'betrayal' happens
  • TOPPING said:



    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Not sure I understand but are you saying Corbyn and McDonnell are not going to win a GE and that Thornberry/Starmer will. You may be right but how would you engineer that
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,041
    Kezia still dominating the headlines in Richard Leonard's first week

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/why-did-kezia-dugdale-join-i-m-a-celebrity-1-4618536
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 4,306



    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    I think this is inaccurate.
    Those MPs voted against closing off the option of leaving the customs union.

    Basically Labour's position is we haven't decided yet so we keep all options on the table.
    Hardly edifying leadership - but I think it's smart politics to keep their options open.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 13,660

    TOPPING said:



    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Not sure I understand but are you saying Corbyn and McDonnell are not going to win a GE and that Thornberry/Starmer will. You may be right but how would you engineer that
    Despite the polls (!) I can't see Lab under this leadership getting a huge majority. They are becoming more electable every day but I'm just not sure the country is ready for Jezza and Macca yet, no matter how many willing helpers they get to run around the streets in marginals and elsewhere.

    Somehow (events?) they will have to go and Starmer/Thornberry put in place. No idea how it will happen.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,989
    TOPPING said:



    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Smug and smugger? Seriously? Outside of London their attitudes are not liked.
This discussion has been closed.