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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Elliot said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    Personally I think May is doing absolutely the right thing, offering the EU a substantial sum for FTA negotiations to show she is listening to Remainers concerns about the economy while still committing to leaving the EU and the single market and replacing free movement with a points system to properly respect the Leave vote.
    Someone posted a Financial Times analysis a little way back which showed 40-60 bn was the right sort of range. It includes what we have committed to in the seven year budget, plus the unfunded obligations of the common enterprise, less our share of the EU's assets. If we get the bottom of the range we will have done well and if we get the top it will mean the EU has done well, but it's not a big deal in the scheme of things.

    The thing that stings is the unfunded liabilities, as it shows the financial mismanagement of the EU. But if you invest in a badly run business you still have to pay debts on divestment. We should be glad that no more of these debts will be run up in our name.
    Indeed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    TonyE said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    Personally I think May is doing absolutely the right thing, offering the EU a substantial sum for FTA negotiations to show she is listening to Remainers concerns about the economy while still committing to leaving the EU and the single market and replacing free movement with a points system to properly respect the Leave vote.
    At £40bn, that is two years contributions to the end of 2021 - plus £20Bn into clearing the RAL (about £300 bn total).

    EU won't settle for it, because they will want up to pay at least 12% of the RAL (around £35 Bn) on top of the two years. We will have to face them down now, because there is no way we can go much further without having been seen to totally capitulate. This is where the nation states have to look to their own interests and press the commission to act in their economic interest rather than the Commission's Political one.They might not - so now its the moment when accidental 'No Deal' becomes most likely.
    £40 billion may not quite be enough for the EU but signs are around £50 billion would be which is likely the eventual settlement
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited November 2017
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/932733867936702464

    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Not sure I understand but are you saying Corbyn and McDonnell are not going to win a GE and that Thornberry/Starmer will. You may be right but how would you engineer that
    Despite the polls (!) I can't see Lab under this leadership getting a huge majority. They are becoming more electable every day but I'm just not sure the country is ready for Jezza and Macca yet, no matter how many willing helpers they get to run around the streets in marginals and elsewhere.

    Somehow (events?) they will have to go and Starmer/Thornberry put in place. No idea how it will happen.
    Starmer and Thornberry have less appeal than Corbyn and McDonnell with Leftwingers and Leave voters and are also not centrist enough to appeal to significantly more current Tory voters either.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/932733867936702464

    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Smug and smugger? Seriously? Outside of London their attitudes are not liked.
    Maybe and maybe it is my Cons sensibility imposing my preferred Cons-type leaders, but they are grown up politicians and I'm sure they will play well to the northern tribes (anyone here from Lab's northern tribes - @RochdalePioneers any thoughts?).
  • HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/932733867936702464

    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Not sure I understand but are you saying Corbyn and McDonnell are not going to win a GE and that Thornberry/Starmer will. You may be right but how would you engineer that
    Despite the polls (!) I can't see Lab under this leadership getting a huge majority. They are becoming more electable every day but I'm just not sure the country is ready for Jezza and Macca yet, no matter how many willing helpers they get to run around the streets in marginals and elsewhere.

    Somehow (events?) they will have to go and Starmer/Thornberry put in place. No idea how it will happen.
    Starmer and Thornberry have less appeal than Corbyn and McDonnell with Leftwingers and Leave voters and are also not centrist enough to appeal to significantly more current Tory voters either.
    Only way Corbyn and McDonnell go is if something health-wise happens.

    Otherwise they will get another shot at a GE.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Borough, if Corbyn retired to spend more time admiring his favourite manhole we'd all be better off.
  • HYUFD said:

    TonyE said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    Personally I think May is doing absolutely the right thing, offering the EU a substantial sum for FTA negotiations to show she is listening to Remainers concerns about the economy while still committing to leaving the EU and the single market and replacing free movement with a points system to properly respect the Leave vote.
    At £40bn, that is two years contributions to the end of 2021 - plus £20Bn into clearing the RAL (about £300 bn total).

    EU won't settle for it, because they will want up to pay at least 12% of the RAL (around £35 Bn) on top of the two years. We will have to face them down now, because there is no way we can go much further without having been seen to totally capitulate. This is where the nation states have to look to their own interests and press the commission to act in their economic interest rather than the Commission's Political one.They might not - so now its the moment when accidental 'No Deal' becomes most likely.
    £40 billion may not quite be enough for the EU but signs are around £50 billion would be which is likely the eventual settlement
    Judging by the tone of the media it is more than enough and we are looking at a make or break December.

    No more money will be on the table
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/932733867936702464

    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Not sure I understand but are you saying Corbyn and McDonnell are not going to win a GE and that Thornberry/Starmer will. You may be right but how would you engineer that
    Despite the polls (!) I can't see Lab under this leadership getting a huge majority. They are becoming more electable every day but I'm just not sure the country is ready for Jezza and Macca yet, no matter how many willing helpers they get to run around the streets in marginals and elsewhere.

    Somehow (events?) they will have to go and Starmer/Thornberry put in place. No idea how it will happen.
    Starmer and Thornberry have less appeal than Corbyn and McDonnell with Leftwingers and Leave voters and are also not centrist enough to appeal to significantly more current Tory voters either.
    Only way Corbyn and McDonnell go is if something health-wise happens.

    Otherwise they will get another shot at a GE.
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next general election having gained seats at the last general election and on current polls will be PM and Chancellor of a Labour minority government even if the Tories still managed to win most seats.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    HYUFD said:

    TonyE said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    Personally I think May is doing absolutely the right thing, offering the EU a substantial sum for FTA negotiations to show she is listening to Remainers concerns about the economy while still committing to leaving the EU and the single market and replacing free movement with a points system to properly respect the Leave vote.
    At £40bn, that is two years contributions to the end of 2021 - plus £20Bn into clearing the RAL (about £300 bn total).

    EU won't settle for it, because they will want up to pay at least 12% of the RAL (around £35 Bn) on top of the two years. We will have to face them down now, because there is no way we can go much further without having been seen to totally capitulate. This is where the nation states have to look to their own interests and press the commission to act in their economic interest rather than the Commission's Political one.They might not - so now its the moment when accidental 'No Deal' becomes most likely.
    £40 billion may not quite be enough for the EU but signs are around £50 billion would be which is likely the eventual settlement
    Judging by the tone of the media it is more than enough and we are looking at a make or break December.

    No more money will be on the table
    Yes, can’t imagine there’s much more money to put on the table, and if there’s one thing the government will have no problem gaining public and media support for, it’s not allowing a trade deal to be held to ransom by the EU.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    TonyE said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    Personally I think May is doing absolutely the right thing, offering the EU a substantial sum for FTA negotiations to show she is listening to Remainers concerns about the economy while still committing to leaving the EU and the single market and replacing free movement with a points system to properly respect the Leave vote.
    At £40bn, that is two years contributions to the end of 2021 - plus £20Bn into clearing the RAL (about £300 bn total).

    EU won't settle for it, because they will want up to pay at least 12% of the RAL (around £35 Bn) on top of the two years. We will have to face them down now, because there is no way we can go much further without having been seen to totally capitulate. This is where the nation states have to look to their own interests and press the commission to act in their economic interest rather than the Commission's Political one.They might not - so now its the moment when accidental 'No Deal' becomes most likely.
    £40 billion may not quite be enough for the EU but signs are around £50 billion would be which is likely the eventual settlement
    Judging by the tone of the media it is more than enough and we are looking at a make or break December.

    No more money will be on the table
    The Eurosceptic media will bleat for a few weeks but we have to move to FTA negotiations and May knows that which is why she is going to pay up, Leavers have already got most of their own way with leaving the EU and single market and ending free movement, fair enough as they won but a concession to the 48% who were Remainers with payments to try and get a deal to better protect the economy post Brexit is fine by me even if hard-core Leavers and UKIP won't like it.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Borough, if Corbyn retired to spend more time admiring his favourite manhole we'd all be better off.

    Dunno. I still suspect McD harbours ambitions.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/932733867936702464

    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Not sure I understand but are you saying Corbyn and McDonnell are not going to win a GE and that Thornberry/Starmer will. You may be right but how would you engineer that
    Despite the polls (!) I can't see Lab under this leadership getting a huge majority. They are becoming more electable every day but I'm just not sure the country is ready for Jezza and Macca yet, no matter how many willing helpers they get to run around the streets in marginals and elsewhere.

    Somehow (events?) they will have to go and Starmer/Thornberry put in place. No idea how it will happen.
    Starmer and Thornberry have less appeal than Corbyn and McDonnell with Leftwingers and Leave voters and are also not centrist enough to appeal to significantly more current Tory voters either.
    Only way Corbyn and McDonnell go is if something health-wise happens.

    Otherwise they will get another shot at a GE.
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next general election having gained seats at the last general election and on current polls will be PM and Chancellor of a Labour minority government even if the Tories still managed to win most seats.
    Have you learned nothing about making overconfident predictions?
  • Anyway off now. Play nicely...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited November 2017
    TonyE said:

    Elliot said:

    TonyE said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love the Express headers: Public will 'go bananas' over the £40 Bn bill
    Miracle blood pressure pills

    Looks as if this is going to be a take it or leave it offer.

    The media broadcasts and phone in shows considerable resistance to paying the EU and if they still play for more TM will get considerable backing to walk away and proceed to plan for WTO

    And this no matter the economic cost
    Personally I think May is doing absolutely the right thing, offering the EU a substantial sum for FTA negotiations to show she is listening to Remainers concerns about the economy while still committing to leaving the EU and the single market and replacing free movement with a points system to properly respect the Leave vote.
    At £40bn, that is two years contributions to the end of 2021 - plus £20Bn into clearing the RAL (about £300 bn total).

    EU won't settle for it, because they will want up to pay at least 12% of the RAL (around £35 Bn) on top of the two years. We will have to face them down now, because there is no way we can go much further without having been seen to totally capitulate. This is where the nation states have to look to their own interests and press the commission to act in their economic interest rather than the Commission's Political one.They might not - so now its the moment when accidental 'No Deal' becomes most likely.
    The RAL and the contributions to 2021 are the same thing aren't they? The RAL is just the amount of money in the budget round that extends to 2021.

    I believe the extra cash May has offered represents the unfunded liabilities, less our share of assets.
    I think the budget to 2021 is the agreed spend, which is already in the EU budget. The Rest a Liquider is the projects that have been agreed which are not yet budgeted for and therefore appear as a liability to be settled in the next budget round in addition to the scheduled running costs.
    That’s my understanding too. The projects in the RaL are things that have been agreed to politically but not yet budgeted for, a domestic example might be the first phase of HS2.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/932733867936702464

    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Not sure I understand but are you saying Corbyn and McDonnell are not going to win a GE and that Thornberry/Starmer will. You may be right but how would you engineer that
    Despite the polls (!) I can't see Lab under this leadership getting a huge majority. They are becoming more electable every day but I'm just not sure the country is ready for Jezza and Macca yet, no matter how many willing helpers they get to run around the streets in marginals and elsewhere.

    Somehow (events?) they will have to go and Starmer/Thornberry put in place. No idea how it will happen.
    Starmer and Thornberry have less appeal than Corbyn and McDonnell with Leftwingers and Leave voters and are also not centrist enough to appeal to significantly more current Tory voters either.
    Only way Corbyn and McDonnell go is if something health-wise happens.

    Otherwise they will get another shot at a GE.
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next general election having gained seats at the last general election and on current polls will be PM and Chancellor of a Labour minority government even if the Tories still managed to win most seats.
    Have you learned nothing about making overconfident predictions?
    I said 'on current polls' not 'I am 100% certain this will be the next general election result.'
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    I was doing a Peugeot ad for the Cote d'Ivoire and for various reasons it was thought a good idea to shoot in Zimbabwe with a South African crew. Though there were no administrative difficulties we finally shot in South Africa because the Zimbabweans couldn't supply catering! Maybe £100,000 out of their economy?

    People blame everything on politics and politicians when often the problems are far more prosaic.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMq7xkLrysw&feature=youtu.be
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited November 2017
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/932733867936702464

    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Not sure I understand but are you saying Corbyn and McDonnell are not going to win a GE and that Thornberry/Starmer will. You may be right but how would you engineer that
    Despite the polls (!) I can't see Lab under this leadership getting a huge majority. They are becoming more electable every day but I'm just not sure the country is ready for Jezza and Macca yet, no matter how many willing helpers they get to run around the streets in marginals and elsewhere.

    Somehow (events?) they will have to go and Starmer/Thornberry put in place. No idea how it will happen.
    Starmer and Thornberry have less appeal than Corbyn and McDonnell with Leftwingers and Leave voters and are also not centrist enough to appeal to significantly more current Tory voters either.
    Only way Corbyn and McDonnell go is if something health-wise happens.

    Otherwise they will get another shot at a GE.
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next general election having gained seats at the last general election and on current polls will be PM and Chancellor of a Labour minority government even if the Tories still managed to win most seats.
    Have you learned nothing about making overconfident predictions?
    I said 'on current polls' not 'I am 100% certain this will be the next general election result.'
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next general election having gained seats at the last general election

    um
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited November 2017
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/932733867936702464

    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Not sure I understand but are you saying Corbyn and McDonnell are not going to win a GE and that Thornberry/Starmer will. You may be right but how would you engineer that
    Despite the polls (!) I can't see Lab under this n.
    Starmer and Thornberry have less appeal than Corbyn and McDonnell with Leftwingers and Leave voters and are also not centrist enough to appeal to significantly more current Tory voters either.
    Only way Corbyn and McDonnell go is if something health-wise happens.

    Otherwise they will get another shot at a GE.
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next general election having gained seats at the last general election and on current polls will be PM and Chancellor of a Labour minority government even if the Tories still managed to win most seats.
    Have you learned nothing about making overconfident predictions?
    I said 'on current polls' not 'I am 100% certain this will be the next general election result.'
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next general election having gained seats at the last general election

    um
    That at least is beyond dispute, Corbyn having easily been re elected by the membership as Labour leader even before the general election result
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    In a sense it’s like the “cuts” argument. If anyone pointed out that Labour would cut too, they could always respond, “Yeah but they Tories will *enjoy* it.”
  • Britain has two main parties, neither of whom has the slightest conception of how much they are despised by large numbers of people who they don't normally talk with. The next general election will probably be lost by the party that has annoyed the most people unintentionally.

    Since they are the party of government, that looks bad for the Conservatives.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/932733867936702464

    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Not sure I understand but are you saying Corbyn and McDonnell are not going to win a GE and that Thornberry/Starmer will. You may be right but how would you engineer that
    Despite the polls (!) I can't see Lab under this n.
    Starmer and Thornberry have less appeal than Corbyn and McDonnell with Leftwingers and Leave voters and are also not centrist enough to appeal to significantly more current Tory voters either.
    Only way Corbyn and McDonnell go is if something health-wise happens.

    Otherwise they will get another shot at a GE.
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next general election having gained seats at the last general election and on current polls will be PM and Chancellor of a Labour minority government even if the Tories still managed to win most seats.
    Have you learned nothing about making overconfident predictions?
    I said 'on current polls' not 'I am 100% certain this will be the next general election result.'
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next general election having gained seats at the last general election

    um
    That at least is beyond dispute, Corbyn having easily been re elected by the membership as Labour leader even before the general election result
    = overconfident prediction.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited November 2017
    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Except if May is paying the EU £40 billion+ for a FTA Eurosceptics do not hold her captive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/932733867936702464

    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Not sure I understand but are you saying Corbyn and McDonnell are not going to win a GE and that Thornberry/Starmer will. You may be right but how would you engineer that
    Despite the polls (!) I can't see Lab under this n.
    Starmer and Thornberry have less appeal than Corbyn and McDonnell with Leftwingers and Leave voters and are also not centrist enough to appeal to significantly more current Tory voters either.
    Only way Corbyn and McDonnell go is if something health-wise happens.

    Otherwise they will get another shot at a GE.
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next anaged to win most seats.
    Have you learned nothing about making overconfident predictions?
    I said 'on current polls' not 'I am 100% certain this will be the next general election result.'
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next general election having gained seats at the last general election

    um
    That at least is beyond dispute, Corbyn having easily been re elected by the membership as Labour leader even before the general election result
    = overconfident prediction.
    Certain prediction, there is no way Corbyn is stepping down and there is no way he would not win re election by the membership by a landslide if he was challenged for leader.

    The general election result itself is a little less predictable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    Britain has two main parties, neither of whom has the slightest conception of how much they are despised by large numbers of people who they don't normally talk with. The next general election will probably be lost by the party that has annoyed the most people unintentionally.

    Since they are the party of government, that looks bad for the Conservatives.

    Yet even then it is likely not to be won by Labour either, with another hung parliament the current likeliest option.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The English media seems to be getting awfully het up about Richard Leonard saying he supports England at sport.

    Weirdos.

    Guido is having a bit of a meltdown about it. Which is ironic.
  • Britain has two main parties, neither of whom has the slightest conception of how much they are despised by large numbers of people who they don't normally talk with. The next general election will probably be lost by the party that has annoyed the most people unintentionally.

    Since they are the party of government, that looks bad for the Conservatives.

    You have to wonder if it's possible to be in government without a large minority of people despising you. Isn't that the nature of the beast....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited November 2017
    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    That might be true if the election was this month but I don't believe it will be if the deal has gone through. My guess is the Remainers anger will fall pretty hard on Corbyn.

    His non attendance during the referendum campaign is sure to be revisited
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Britain has two main parties, neither of whom has the slightest conception of how much they are despised by large numbers of people who they don't normally talk with. The next general election will probably be lost by the party that has annoyed the most people unintentionally.

    Since they are the party of government, that looks bad for the Conservatives.

    Alternatively - the two main parties are about as popular as they have ever been, both led by leaders who are giants compared to their predecessors in their vote-winning abilities.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/932733867936702464

    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    This is the big news story today.

    Who would have thought Corbyn would join May in the division lobby rejecting the single market and customs union.

    He has come out as a Brexiteer to the utter dismay of the majority of his party
    He always was a Brexiteer. He has been anti-EU for decades. Same for McD and Seamus and the whole lot of them.

    Why does hardly anyone left in the Labour movement know this or indeed seem to care?
    He will dress it up as will of the people and in any case. Corbyn/Macca isn't the team that is going to get Lab a thumping victory (Thornberry/Starmer) so it sort of doesn't matter what either of those two says.
    Not sure I understand but are you saying Corbyn and McDonnell are not going to win a GE and that Thornberry/Starmer will. You may be right but how would you engineer that
    Despite the polls (!) I can't see Lab under this n.
    Starmer and Thornberry have less appeal than Corbyn and McDonnell with Leftwingers and Leave voters and are also not centrist enough to appeal to significantly more current Tory voters either.
    Only way Corbyn and McDonnell go is if something health-wise happens.

    Otherwise they will get another shot at a GE.
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next anaged to win most seats.
    Have you learned nothing about making overconfident predictions?
    I said 'on current polls' not 'I am 100% certain this will be the next general election result.'
    Corbyn and McDonnell will certainly lead Labour into the next general election having gained seats at the last general election

    um
    That at least is beyond dispute, Corbyn having easily been re elected by the membership as Labour leader even before the general election result
    = overconfident prediction.
    Certain prediction, there is no way Corbyn is stepping down and there is no way he would not win re election by the membership by a landslide if he was challenged for leader.

    Is that using the Bayes-Laplace rule?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    Except with the Tories on 40% consistently in most polls they are not imploding, that is the point.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Britain has two main parties, neither of whom has the slightest conception of how much they are despised by large numbers of people who they don't normally talk with. The next general election will probably be lost by the party that has annoyed the most people unintentionally.

    Since they are the party of government, that looks bad for the Conservatives.

    You seem to be scoring the annoyance a score draw. I believe the annoyance with Corbyn will soon eclipse that towards May because when he could have done something he walked by on the other side. As a Labour voter (and member now!) my loathing for his Referendum neutrality knows no bounds
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    Alistair said:
    Wouldn't fancy being in the 0.1% shoes.

    Although, the way politics has been going in recent years.....
  • The first rule of borrowing stats is to chase the first reported value like a dog.

    Revisions pffffft.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    Except with the Tories on 40% consistently in most polls they are not imploding, that is the point.
    But compared to their position in the Spring - a 20+ point lead, May hailed as the new Thatcher leading us to the Brexit promised land - they have imploded already. And it will get worse.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Alistair said:
    Wouldn't fancy being in the 0.1% shoes.

    Although, the way politics has been going in recent years.....
    If Putin were to choke on a fish bone, I dread to think what would happen in Russia. Dangerous period of instability as a minimum.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    UK at 250/1 might be value as a special longshot.

    Mugabe has always had a love/hate relationship with us and I can see, in extreme circumstances, him begging for refuge.

    And mad as we are we'd probably give it to him...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    I always knew deep down Jezz was for LEAVE and was just indulging Starmer until the time was right... :D
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    Except with the Tories on 40% consistently in most polls they are not imploding, that is the point.
    But compared to their position in the Spring - a 20+ point lead, May hailed as the new Thatcher leading us to the Brexit promised land - they have imploded already. And it will get worse.
    They still won the election, most MPs, their PM in Downing Street AFTER the implosion.

    As to it getting worse - maybe. But more likely is that we get a short-term-expensive but ultimately cheap-at-the- price Brexit package that the Party rallies around, because frankly no-one thinks there is any mileage in reopening it. Then we can get on with the one core aim we can all agree on - stopping Corbyn and his New Venezuela Project getting anywhere near the levers of power. By 2022, you won't be able to see the join....at least, not in the Tories. Labour? Well, if the polls start going backwards a bit, with the prospect of a worse result than 2017, then the knives come out the cutlery draw for Corbyn.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    If the EU negotiators walk away from £40 billion, then very serious questions need to be asked about their fitness for purpose. It will be very easy to make the case that they were not interested in "reparations", merely trying to hamstring us as a comptitor in coming decades. In that situation, Govt. could ride the storm with considerable public support.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    GIN1138 said:

    UK at 250/1 might be value as a special longshot.

    Mugabe has always had a love/hate relationship with us and I can see, in extreme circumstances, him begging for refuge.

    And mad as we are we'd probably give it to him...
    That's ok. As long as he gives the numbers of his accounts in Liechtenstein and the Caymans.

    It might offset some of our Brexit losses.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see a Tory Moray councillor has resigned from the party due to not liking the extreme right wing views of his colleagues.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    Do you mean 'hard Brexit' or 'no deal' Brexit? The former, mitigated by a transition agreement', would not lead to a crisis, I would have thought; the latter perhaps would.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    Except with the Tories on 40% consistently in most polls they are not imploding, that is the point.
    But compared to their position in the Spring - a 20+ point lead, May hailed as the new Thatcher leading us to the Brexit promised land - they have imploded already. And it will get worse.
    They still won the election, most MPs, their PM in Downing Street AFTER the implosion.

    As to it getting worse - maybe. But more likely is that we get a short-term-expensive but ultimately cheap-at-the- price Brexit package that the Party rallies around, because frankly no-one thinks there is any mileage in reopening it. Then we can get on with the one core aim we can all agree on - stopping Corbyn and his New Venezuela Project getting anywhere near the levers of power. By 2022, you won't be able to see the join....at least, not in the Tories. Labour? Well, if the polls start going backwards a bit, with the prospect of a worse result than 2017, then the knives come out the cutlery draw for Corbyn.
    Back around the electiuon time you Tories were banging on about how Corbyn was a ‘friend of the IRA’. That worked well, didn’t it. Now you’re banging on about Venezuala. Where? Why? (Yes, I for one do know)

    Meanwhile thusands of people are at their wits end as a result of your Universal ‘Credit’ catastrophe, and remember, thousands more know someone who has been affected by such ‘soak the poor’ policies and you’re happily watching good, high quality jobs vanishing off to Holland & France as a result of your actions.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    GIN1138 said:

    UK at 250/1 might be value as a special longshot.

    Mugabe has always had a love/hate relationship with us and I can see, in extreme circumstances, him begging for refuge.

    And mad as we are we'd probably give it to him...
    It's his human right is it not :D ?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    If the EU negotiators walk away from £40 billion, then very serious questions need to be asked about their fitness for purpose. It will be very easy to make the case that they were not interested in "reparations", merely trying to hamstring us as a comptitor in coming decades. In that situation, Govt. could ride the storm with considerable public support.
    We'll see. But if it comes to grounded flights, queues at Dover and shortages of essential goods then I very much doubt that any government could ride it out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Meanwhile, in other news, there’s a fantastic finish in prospect for the last Womens t20 in Oz.

    England need 8 off the last 13 balls 6 wickets in hand.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    rkrkrk said:

    Britain has two main parties, neither of whom has the slightest conception of how much they are despised by large numbers of people who they don't normally talk with. The next general election will probably be lost by the party that has annoyed the most people unintentionally.

    Since they are the party of government, that looks bad for the Conservatives.

    Alternatively - the two main parties are about as popular as they have ever been, both led by leaders who are giants compared to their predecessors in their vote-winning abilities.
    rkrkrk said:

    Britain has two main parties, neither of whom has the slightest conception of how much they are despised by large numbers of people who they don't normally talk with. The next general election will probably be lost by the party that has annoyed the most people unintentionally.

    Since they are the party of government, that looks bad for the Conservatives.

    Alternatively - the two main parties are about as popular as they have ever been, both led by leaders who are giants compared to their predecessors in their vote-winning abilities.
    I think a large percentage of the 40% of the vote each party currently has isn’t positively for that party but is more not the other party
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    PeterC said:

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    Do you mean 'hard Brexit' or 'no deal' Brexit? The former, mitigated by a transition agreement', would not lead to a crisis, I would have thought; the latter perhaps would.
    Can I suggest that anyone who thinks hard Brexit would not lead to a crisis reads the evidence that the motor manufacturers gave to to the HoC business committee last week.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    England Women won, with an over to spare! Century for Wyatt
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Congrats to the England Women's Cricket Team!
    Cracking run chase by the sounds of things...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    eek said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Britain has two main parties, neither of whom has the slightest conception of how much they are despised by large numbers of people who they don't normally talk with. The next general election will probably be lost by the party that has annoyed the most people unintentionally.

    Since they are the party of government, that looks bad for the Conservatives.

    Alternatively - the two main parties are about as popular as they have ever been, both led by leaders who are giants compared to their predecessors in their vote-winning abilities.
    I think a large percentage of the 40% of the vote each party currently has isn’t positively for that party but is more not the other party
    That's the received wisdom certainly.
    But I think we had some polling showing it wasn't the major reason for both parties?

    I think Corbyn has enthused a lot of Labour/left people, and TM in her own way has managed to persuade many UKIP voters to return. Certainly I think there are voters she is able to reach that Cameron wasn't.
  • Meanwhile, the extreme Brexit right are being their usual charming self:

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/932922134980186112
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited November 2017
    It seems the Brexit Mutineers are on a very peculiar Christmas card list.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    PeterC said:

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    Do you mean 'hard Brexit' or 'no deal' Brexit? The former, mitigated by a transition agreement', would not lead to a crisis, I would have thought; the latter perhaps would.
    Can I suggest that anyone who thinks hard Brexit would not lead to a crisis reads the evidence that the motor manufacturers gave to to the HoC business committee last week.
    Were you one of those people who went into an underground bunker on NYE 1999? ;)
  • Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    If the EU negotiators walk away from £40 billion, then very serious questions need to be asked about their fitness for purpose. It will be very easy to make the case that they were not interested in "reparations", merely trying to hamstring us as a comptitor in coming decades. In that situation, Govt. could ride the storm with considerable public support.
    We'll see. But if it comes to grounded flights, queues at Dover and shortages of essential goods then I very much doubt that any government could ride it out.
    If you think airspace will be closed to UK aircraft the anger against the EU across the globe would be off the scale and the EU 's reputation, if it has one, in tatters
  • It seems the Brexit Mutineers are on a very peculiar Christmas card list.

    It's worth noting that the Telegraph's staunch defence of that front page coincides with the sports journalists having a complete meltdown after Arsenal sent a punchy but funny tweet back to one of their number who had selected all 11 Spurs players as their combined team in advance of the North London Derby.

    Perhaps the front page journalists and the back page journalists ought to sit down together from time to time.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    If the EU negotiators walk away from £40 billion, then very serious questions need to be asked about their fitness for purpose. It will be very easy to make the case that they were not interested in "reparations", merely trying to hamstring us as a comptitor in coming decades. In that situation, Govt. could ride the storm with considerable public support.
    We'll see. But if it comes to grounded flights, queues at Dover and shortages of essential goods then I very much doubt that any government could ride it out.
    If you think airspace will be closed to UK aircraft the anger against the EU across the globe would be off the scale and the EU 's reputation, if it has one, in tatters
    Indeed.

    That's what always amuses me about this flights being grounded scare because it wouldn't just be the UK's flights being grounded in isolation... The knock on affects would impact flights all over the world (basically it would like the aviation industry having a heart attack)

    And that's why it won't happen.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    If the EU negotiators walk away from £40 billion, then very serious questions need to be asked about their fitness for purpose. It will be very easy to make the case that they were not interested in "reparations", merely trying to hamstring us as a comptitor in coming decades. In that situation, Govt. could ride the storm with considerable public support.
    We'll see. But if it comes to grounded flights, queues at Dover and shortages of essential goods then I very much doubt that any government could ride it out.
    If you think airspace will be closed to UK aircraft the anger against the EU across the globe would be off the scale and the EU 's reputation, if it has one, in tatters
    Since it would be UK tearing up the agreements I think that’s unlikely. We saw yesterday that the EU takes the UK at it’s word when it says it wants to leave.
  • Meanwhile, the extreme Brexit right are being their usual charming self:

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/932922134980186112

    Assume that has been sent to one of the conservative dissenters.

    There are idiots on both the hard right and hard left

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Meanwhile, the extreme Brexit right are being their usual charming self:

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/932922134980186112

    I need to get a few of those cards!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    If the EU negotiators walk away from £40 billion, then very serious questions need to be asked about their fitness for purpose. It will be very easy to make the case that they were not interested in "reparations", merely trying to hamstring us as a comptitor in coming decades. In that situation, Govt. could ride the storm with considerable public support.
    We'll see. But if it comes to grounded flights, queues at Dover and shortages of essential goods then I very much doubt that any government could ride it out.
    Do you really believe that flights are going to grounded? That the EU will somehow cut UK airlines off from EU airspace and cut their own airlines off from UK airspace?
  • On topic: 'Any Other' country is fantastic value at 14/1. Pity they limited me to tuppence ha'penny.
  • Meanwhile, the extreme Brexit right are being their usual charming self:

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/932922134980186112

    Just wait until Brexit turns into a full blown economic disaster, Leavers are going to get this in kind with interest.

    It'll be like after The Netherlands were liberated in 1944, the women that slept with the Germans were stripped and had their heads shaved.
  • On topic: 'Any Other' country is fantastic value at 14/1. Pity they limited me to tuppence ha'penny.

    Given his age and the conventional way that successful coups end, the likelihood of this market being voided is unsavourily high.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Meanwhile, the extreme Brexit right are being their usual charming self:

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/932922134980186112

    Just wait until Brexit turns into a full blown economic disaster, Leavers are going to get this in kind with interest.

    It'll be like after The Netherlands were liberated in 1944, the women that slept with the Germans were stripped and had their heads shaved.
    How about we offer you a Brazilian ?
  • MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    If the EU negotiators walk away from £40 billion, then very serious questions need to be asked about their fitness for purpose. It will be very easy to make the case that they were not interested in "reparations", merely trying to hamstring us as a comptitor in coming decades. In that situation, Govt. could ride the storm with considerable public support.
    We'll see. But if it comes to grounded flights, queues at Dover and shortages of essential goods then I very much doubt that any government could ride it out.
    Do you really believe that flights are going to grounded? That the EU will somehow cut UK airlines off from EU airspace and cut their own airlines off from UK airspace?
    That's what a disorderly Brexit entails does it not?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Totally O/t, but there are all sorts of people here. I’m the Secretary of an Older Peoples organisation and I’ve got a memory stick with a lopad of old Microsoft documents on it. I’m told that there’s a danger of these becoming unreadable. “Zat so, and if so is there any means of converting them to (say) pdf in bulk or is it a tedious.one by one job.

  • Just wait until Brexit turns into a full blown economic disaster, Leavers are going to get this in kind with interest.

    It'll be like after The Netherlands were liberated in 1944, the women that slept with the Germans were stripped and had their heads shaved.

    How will this work, remainers shave the heads of anyone who *didn't* sleep with a German?
  • Meanwhile, the extreme Brexit right are being their usual charming self:

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/932922134980186112

    Just wait until Brexit turns into a full blown economic disaster, Leavers are going to get this in kind with interest.

    It'll be like after The Netherlands were liberated in 1944, the women that slept with the Germans were stripped and had their heads shaved.
    How about we offer you a Brazilian ?
    Jean Charles de Menezes?

  • Just wait until Brexit turns into a full blown economic disaster, Leavers are going to get this in kind with interest.

    It'll be like after The Netherlands were liberated in 1944, the women that slept with the Germans were stripped and had their heads shaved.

    How will this work, remainers shave the heads of anyone who *didn't* sleep with a German?
    Anyone who voted Leave.
  • What a shit show newsnight has become....

    https://order-order.com/2017/11/21/newsnights-royal-farce/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MaxPB said:

    Meanwhile, the extreme Brexit right are being their usual charming self:

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/932922134980186112

    I need to get a few of those cards!
    Does traitor include those people who fuck off and leave the country?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited November 2017

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    If the EU negotiators walk away from £40 billion, then very serious questions need to be asked about their fitness for purpose. It will be very easy to make the case that they were not interested in "reparations", merely trying to hamstring us as a comptitor in coming decades. In that situation, Govt. could ride the storm with considerable public support.
    To me it’s clear the EU side have no intention of getting a mutually beneficial deal. Their playbook is to run down the clock and present a massively one-sided deal at the last minute - with the alternative being a crash-out with planes grounded etc. That’s why the offer now is important, because it gives us time to prepare for no-deal if it becomes obvious that’s where we’re headed.
  • https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/932733867936702464

    When are Jezza's young followers going to realise what they are following?

    Still the messiah...definitely not a cult.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    If the EU negotiators walk away from £40 billion, then very serious questions need to be asked about their fitness for purpose. It will be very easy to make the case that they were not interested in "reparations", merely trying to hamstring us as a comptitor in coming decades. In that situation, Govt. could ride the storm with considerable public support.
    We'll see. But if it comes to grounded flights, queues at Dover and shortages of essential goods then I very much doubt that any government could ride it out.
    Do you really believe that flights are going to grounded? That the EU will somehow cut UK airlines off from EU airspace and cut their own airlines off from UK airspace?
    That's what a disorderly Brexit entails does it not?
    No. No deal Brexit will be agreed early next year which still leaves a year to sort out the administration.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    It seems the Brexit Mutineers are on a very peculiar Christmas card list.

    It's worth noting that the Telegraph's staunch defence of that front page coincides with the sports journalists having a complete meltdown after Arsenal sent a punchy but funny tweet back to one of their number who had selected all 11 Spurs players as their combined team in advance of the North London Derby.

    Perhaps the front page journalists and the back page journalists ought to sit down together from time to time.
    Googled it - seems to be a gif of Mesut Ozil drinking tea... funny yes... but not especially punchy I would suggest!
  • I heard the audio for this earlier, i did chuckle.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    MaxPB said:

    No. No deal Brexit will be agreed early next year which still leaves a year to sort out the administration.

    How do you 'administer' the introduction of a hard border in Northern Ireland?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    If the EU negotiators walk away from £40 billion, then very serious questions need to be asked about their fitness for purpose. It will be very easy to make the case that they were not interested in "reparations", merely trying to hamstring us as a comptitor in coming decades. In that situation, Govt. could ride the storm with considerable public support.
    To me it’s clear the EU side have no intention of getting a mutually beneficial deal. Their playbook is to run down the clock and present a massively one-sided deal at the last minute - with the alternative being a crash-out with planes grounded etc. That’s why the offer now is important, because it gives us time to prepare for no-deal if it becomes obvious that’s where we’re headed.
    That seems a reasonable way forward.

    Will we take yes (to no deal) for an answer, though.

    It would open up the mother of all bags of worms for HMG and it's not as if they got an increased majority at the last GE to be able to withstand such a sh^tshow.
  • Given his age and the conventional way that successful coups end, the likelihood of this market being voided is unsavourily high.

    True, but in that case my downside is limited to having £1.33 tied up for a while, which is a risk I'm happy to take.

    As for the unsavoury bit, I hope the matter can be amicably resolved, but if not, so be it.
  • Mr. Sandpit, indeed. The EU cannot be trusted, which is one reason we voted to leave despite the massive advantages that the remain side enjoyed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited November 2017

    Totally O/t, but there are all sorts of people here. I’m the Secretary of an Older Peoples organisation and I’ve got a memory stick with a lopad of old Microsoft documents on it. I’m told that there’s a danger of these becoming unreadable. “Zat so, and if so is there any means of converting them to (say) pdf in bulk or is it a tedious.one by one job.

    Download a program called Libre Office, it’s free any will open just about anything, back to old MS Works files. You can open the files and save them in more modern MS Office formats or as PDFs. Will look up bulk copying and get back to you, but yes it should be possible. Also make sure you have backup copies of the files!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    MaxPB said:

    No. No deal Brexit will be agreed early next year which still leaves a year to sort out the administration.

    How do you 'administer' the introduction of a hard border in Northern Ireland?
    get the Mexicans to pay for it
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Given his age and the conventional way that successful coups end, the likelihood of this market being voided is unsavourily high.

    True, but in that case my downside is limited to having £1.33 tied up for a while, which is a risk I'm happy to take.

    As for the unsavoury bit, I hope the matter can be amicably resolved, but if not, so be it.
    Luxury. Paddy offered me £0.66 which I couldn't be bothered to head downstairs for the debit card this morning.
  • Totally O/t, but there are all sorts of people here. I’m the Secretary of an Older Peoples organisation and I’ve got a memory stick with a lopad of old Microsoft documents on it. I’m told that there’s a danger of these becoming unreadable. “Zat so, and if so is there any means of converting them to (say) pdf in bulk or is it a tedious.one by one job.

    I'd worry about your memory stick becoming unreadable or being lost or stolen before Microsoft breaks backward compatibility on their doc formats. You could examine various cloud backup services. Give some thought to data protection. For mass conversions, I believe Adobe Acrobat can do this but I've not bought it so cannot be 100% sure how it works.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614


    Just wait until Brexit turns into a full blown economic disaster, Leavers are going to get this in kind with interest.

    It'll be like after The Netherlands were liberated in 1944, the women that slept with the Germans were stripped and had their heads shaved.

    How will this work, remainers shave the heads of anyone who *didn't* sleep with a German?
    Wasn’t Farage’s last wife German?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Meanwhile, the extreme Brexit right are being their usual charming self:

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/932922134980186112

    Just wait until Brexit turns into a full blown economic disaster, Leavers are going to get this in kind with interest.

    It'll be like after The Netherlands were liberated in 1944, the women that slept with the Germans were stripped and had their heads shaved.
    Your obsession with the humiliation of women is somewhat disturbing
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    If the EU negotiators walk away from £40 billion, then very serious questions need to be asked about their fitness for purpose. It will be very easy to make the case that they were not interested in "reparations", merely trying to hamstring us as a comptitor in coming decades. In that situation, Govt. could ride the storm with considerable public support.
    To me it’s clear the EU side have no intention of getting a mutually beneficial deal. Their playbook is to run down the clock and present a massively one-sided deal at the last minute - with the alternative being a crash-out with planes grounded etc. That’s why the offer now is important, because it gives us time to prepare for no-deal if it becomes obvious that’s where we’re headed.
    I hope and expect that behind the scenes we have been preparing for no-deal because it is already clear that the EU side considers the 'negotiation' to be a negative sum game. Pour encourager les autres n'est-ce pas?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    No. No deal Brexit will be agreed early next year which still leaves a year to sort out the administration.

    How do you 'administer' the introduction of a hard border in Northern Ireland?
    Ireland and the UK are both in the CTA. Neither are a member of Schengen. There is and has always been a hard border between both nations and the continent. If I travel from Dublin to Paris I have to go through the same checks as I would when travelling from London.

    The new border would be a customs border, not for personal travel. It's still an issue, but there aren't going to be passport controls unless Ireland unilaterally decides to leave the CTA and join Schengen.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    No. No deal Brexit will be agreed early next year which still leaves a year to sort out the administration.

    How do you 'administer' the introduction of a hard border in Northern Ireland?
    Ireland and the UK are both in the CTA. Neither are a member of Schengen. There is and has always been a hard border between both nations and the continent. If I travel from Dublin to Paris I have to go through the same checks as I would when travelling from London.

    The new border would be a customs border, not for personal travel. It's still an issue, but there aren't going to be passport controls unless Ireland unilaterally decides to leave the CTA and join Schengen.
    If we choose not to levy any duties then the border is up to the EU and Ireland.
  • Charles said:

    Meanwhile, the extreme Brexit right are being their usual charming self:

    https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/932922134980186112

    Just wait until Brexit turns into a full blown economic disaster, Leavers are going to get this in kind with interest.

    It'll be like after The Netherlands were liberated in 1944, the women that slept with the Germans were stripped and had their heads shaved.
    Your obsession with the humiliation of women is somewhat disturbing
    Bloody hell Charles, talk about a radical interpretation of the text.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    To retain support of Remainers, Jezza doesn't have to be a Remainer. He just has to be slightly more of a Remainer than May and the Eurosceptics that hold her captive.

    Exactly. It would be tactically daft of Labour to adopt the Lib Dem 100% remain position at the moment, though it may become sensible later if and when a hard Brexit looms. And if it does become sensible then Corbyn has the political space to adopt it.

    For most Labour supporters the EU is not the defining issue that it is for many Tories - they are not too bothered about it either way and are quite happy for the Party to keep its options open and watch the Tories implode.
    IF - big IF - we have a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the EU - and they leave it, so we head for WTO Hard Brexit, Labour still has to answer the question "so how much would you have paid?" Which easily gets twisted by the meida as "Labour would have caved to EU blackmail - whatever the cost".

    Not exactly helpful.
    If it looks like "hard Brexit" is a serious possibility there will be a major economic and political crisis, the government will collapse and Corbyn could well be left picking up the pieces.
    If the EU negotiators walk away from £40 billion, then very serious questions need to be asked about their fitness for purpose. It will be very easy to make the case that they were not interested in "reparations", merely trying to hamstring us as a comptitor in coming decades. In that situation, Govt. could ride the storm with considerable public support.
    We'll see. But if it comes to grounded flights, queues at Dover and shortages of essential goods then I very much doubt that any government could ride it out.
    Do you really believe that flights are going to grounded? That the EU will somehow cut UK airlines off from EU airspace and cut their own airlines off from UK airspace?
    Well that is what people in the industry say. I understand that EASA safety certificates won't be valid for UK registered planes after Brexit and without safety certificates they cannot be insured and so cannot fly. So not all flights will be grounded - just UK registered planes. Maybe there is someone here with knowledge of the detail who can confirm, or not, that this is the position?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Sandpit said:

    Totally O/t, but there are all sorts of people here. I’m the Secretary of an Older Peoples organisation and I’ve got a memory stick with a lopad of old Microsoft documents on it. I’m told that there’s a danger of these becoming unreadable. “Zat so, and if so is there any means of converting them to (say) pdf in bulk or is it a tedious.one by one job.

    Download a program called Libre Office, it’s free any will open just about anything, back to old MS Works files. You can open the files and save them in more modern MS Office formats or as PDFs. Will look up bulk copying and get back to you, but yes it should be possible.
    Mr Sandpit, thank you. I can, of course, convert them all to pdf, but it’s a one at a time job, slightly, but only slightly, more interesting that watching paint dry.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited November 2017
    geoffw said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    No. No deal Brexit will be agreed early next year which still leaves a year to sort out the administration.

    How do you 'administer' the introduction of a hard border in Northern Ireland?
    Ireland and the UK are both in the CTA. Neither are a member of Schengen. There is and has always been a hard border between both nations and the continent. If I travel from Dublin to Paris I have to go through the same checks as I would when travelling from London.

    The new border would be a customs border, not for personal travel. It's still an issue, but there aren't going to be passport controls unless Ireland unilaterally decides to leave the CTA and join Schengen.
    If we choose not to levy any duties then the border is up to the EU and Ireland.
    Nice spot of control reclamation, there - it's up to a furriner as to whether our country has border controls or not.
This discussion has been closed.