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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Like us, Ireland are putting politics ahead of economics.
    theyre on a loser with that one

    it's like the Versailles treaty when all the small countries were encouraged by the French to start pushing the big ones around

    twenty years later that didn't look so good
    Just over 20 years after the Versailles Treaty Germany had elected a dictator who had invaded and occupied most of Europe and had sympathetic Fascist client states in most of the remainder.

    I very much hope and doubt 2039 will be 1939 repeated a century after the outbreak of WW2 but there is that lesson from history.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    FF43 said:

    It is just as likely, and I would suggest a more positive outcome, if a majority of Northern Irish decide their destiny is in sharing their island with their southern neighbours and will look for a de facto integration - without necessarily replacing the Union flag with the Tricolour on Belfast City Hall.

    The DUP have backed themselves into a corner by getting carried away with the hubris of the Brexiteers. It's difficult to see where they go from here, but they are now in the position of being the canary in the coalmine for the Brexit project as a whole.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    To me it’s clear the EU side have no intention of getting a mutually beneficial deal. Their playbook is to run down the clock and present a massively one-sided deal at the last minute - with the alternative being a crash-out with planes grounded etc. That’s why the offer now is important, because it gives us time to prepare for no-deal if it becomes obvious that’s where we’re headed.

    Yes and No. We rejected our favourable deal with the EU in last year's referendum. Everything else is massively less favourable. But once we accept that, there's a deal to be done. Better than nothing but worse than what we had is a big negotiating space. I am confident that we will end up with something that is a lot better than nothing and a lot worse than what we had before. It is firmly in our interests to agree to that.

    Thing is, we are nowhere near accepting Brexit as a downgrade. We will get there eventually but there will be days and days and weeks and months of relentlessly dreary Brexit news to come. Remainers and Leavers are going through their different versions of Kuebler-Ross and are stuck in anger and denial, before moving on to acceptance.
    There’s also a lot of scope for discussion about what “worse” means though. In the heads of the EU, it’s worse that we don’t have ECJ jurisdiction and are not in the Cutoms Union - whereas I see those as positives.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Isn't it astonishing that other countries might also be motivated by non-economic considerations?
    Not at all, Ive always said Germany will put its own interest first

    Varadkars idiocy is letting himself be used to push Germany's agenda, just as things up north are returning to normal

    It's a negotiation, with 28 more or less interested parties involved. It's to be expected that those who care will put forward demands at some point (the silence of the Spanish over Gibraltar is more surprising than Varadkar pushing the Irish agenda).

    We'll get lots of these alarms and excursion over the next year - don't get too excited over each one. But it's telling that there is actually no unified British position on the border - the "no policing from our side" option has been suggested but is far from official policy, which is, er...what?

    A hard border between GB and Northern Ireland would actually cause less disruption, I'd think, but politically not really feasible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    If Merkel even contemplated a deal with Die Linke her own party and the CSU would topple her and replace her with a leader who backed a minority government, with FDP confidence and supply and deals with the AfD on tight votes if necessary.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Isn't it astonishing that other countries might also be motivated by non-economic considerations?
    Not at all, Ive always said Germany will put its own interest first

    Varadkars idiocy is letting himself be used to push Germany's agenda, just as things up north are returning to normal
    Yes, he should be putting pressure on the EU side to make sure a deal gets done that doesn’t need a border. Instead he’s doing the EU’s bidding to the UK with knobs on, and is more likely to scupper a chance of a good deal than create one.
    What the Irish want is for NI to stay in the customs union. This would effectively unite Ireland economically and it also happens to be what the people of NI voted for in the referendum. It's a very big prize for them. If they can't get that then their fallback is to try to scupper Brexit altogether and they calculate that forcing the UK closer to the cliff edge is the way to do it.

    It's an obvious course of action for Ireland - perfectly logical both politically and economically.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    FF43 said:

    It is just as likely, and I would suggest a more positive outcome, if a majority of Northern Irish decide their destiny is in sharing their island with their southern neighbours and will look for a de facto integration - without necessarily replacing the Union flag with the Tricolour on Belfast City Hall.

    The DUP have backed themselves into a corner by getting carried away with the hubris of the Brexiteers. It's difficult to see where they go from here, but they are now in the position of being the canary in the coalmine for the Brexit project as a whole.
    maybe they'll go into coalition with Mrs Merkel

    she needs some votes
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543

    FF43 said:

    It is just as likely, and I would suggest a more positive outcome, if a majority of Northern Irish decide their destiny is in sharing their island with their southern neighbours and will look for a de facto integration - without necessarily replacing the Union flag with the Tricolour on Belfast City Hall.

    The DUP have backed themselves into a corner by getting carried away with the hubris of the Brexiteers. It's difficult to see where they go from here, but they are now in the position of being the canary in the coalmine for the Brexit project as a whole.
    Thinking Northern Irish Unionists - they do exist - should be worried. They absolutely need a good arrangement with the South to maintain the exceptionalism of the North
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Isn't it astonishing that other countries might also be motivated by non-economic considerations?
    Not at all, Ive always said Germany will put its own interest first

    Varadkars idiocy is letting himself be used to push Germany's agenda, just as things up north are returning to normal
    Yes, he should be putting pressure on the EU side to make sure a deal gets done that doesn’t need a border. Instead he’s doing the EU’s bidding to the UK with knobs on, and is more likely to scupper a chance of a good deal than create one.
    What the Irish want is for NI to stay in the customs union. This would effectively unite Ireland economically and it also happens to be what the people of NI voted for in the referendum. It's a very big prize for them. If they can't get that then their fallback is to try to scupper Brexit altogether and they calculate that forcing the UK closer to the cliff edge is the way to do it.

    It's an obvious course of action for Ireland - perfectly logical both politically and economically.
    wow, an Englishman who claims to understand Irish logic

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    It will be tragic if Brexit undoes any of the recent progress in Northern Ireland.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    I see Gove's improved his people skills.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/932932244670476288

    He worked 2 days a month, Gove demanded 3 days a week.

    Gove on the ball here
    Err 2 days a week is what NEDs do, 3 days a week is the sort of job a full time Director does.

    Plus Gove does have form for this.

    Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary, is facing a fresh row over his treatment of independent Whitehall directors after demanding that board members commit several days each week to their non-executive roles.

    Sky News has learnt that Steve Holliday, the former National Grid chief executive who is one of Britain's leading businessmen, has decided to step down as the lead non-executive director of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) after Mr Gove issued his demands.

    It is the latest such clash involving Mr Gove, who as Secretary of State for Education and then Justice was accused of packing the departments' boards with close associates who were subsequently handed peerages or knighthoods.


    https://news.sky.com/story/gove-faces-criticism-as-defra-board-members-quit-over-demands-11136908
    Er - when did Gove ever have the power to award peerages or knighthoods?
    Nominate them.
    The list of who can nominate is extensive. And it doesn't mean it happens. Stilll have to be signed off by someoone who might just as easily say "get the fuck out of here...." Unless of course, the nomination was entirely justified.

    Sean_F said:




    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.

    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Like us, Ireland are putting politics ahead of economics.
    Everyone does including the EU. You may have met Greece.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Isn't it astonishing that other countries might also be motivated by non-economic considerations?
    Not at all, Ive always said Germany will put its own interest first

    Varadkars idiocy is letting himself be used to push Germany's agenda, just as things up north are returning to normal
    Yes, he should be putting pressure on the EU side to make sure a deal gets done that doesn’t need a border. Instead he’s doing the EU’s bidding to the UK with knobs on, and is more likely to scupper a chance of a good deal than create one.
    What the Irish want is for NI to stay in the customs union. This would effectively unite Ireland economically and it also happens to be what the people of NI voted for in the referendum. It's a very big prize for them. If they can't get that then their fallback is to try to scupper Brexit altogether and they calculate that forcing the UK closer to the cliff edge is the way to do it.

    It's an obvious course of action for Ireland - perfectly logical both politically and economically.
    It’s also putting a customs border in the Irish Sea, between one part of the UK and another part of the UK. Funnily enough the UK government isn’t too keep on having a border in the middle of our own country.
  • Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.

    The thing for the Irish is that there is very little difference between a Bad Deal and No Deal - except that a Bad Deal becomes the long-term status quo, whereas No Deal is likely to be revisited pretty quickly once it begins to bite in the UK.

  • Jonathan said:

    It will be tragic if Brexit undoes any of the recent progress in Northern Ireland.

    Dan Hannan prior to the referendum said Brexit wouldn't undo any of the progress in Northern Ireland.

    Mind you are Peruvian patriot said the only job lost because of Brexit would be his, can't imagine why I thought of that the day after the EBA and EMA chose a new non UK HQ.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    If Merkel even contemplated a deal with Die Linke her own party and the CSU would topple her and replace her with a leader who backed a minority government, with FDP confidence and supply and deals with the AfD on tight votes if necessary.
    Merkel is a centre left leader, she would accept a coalition with the left, the rest of the party wouldn't but they would fall in line because it would keep them in power.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    Sandpit said:

    To me it’s clear the EU side have no intention of getting a mutually beneficial deal. Their playbook is to run down the clock and present a massively one-sided deal at the last minute - with the alternative being a crash-out with planes grounded etc. That’s why the offer now is important, because it gives us time to prepare for no-deal if it becomes obvious that’s where we’re headed.

    Yes and No. We rejected our favourable deal with the EU in last year's referendum. Everything else is massively less favourable. But once we accept that, there's a deal to be done. Better than nothing but worse than what we had is a big negotiating space. I am confident that we will end up with something that is a lot better than nothing and a lot worse than what we had before. It is firmly in our interests to agree to that.

    Thing is, we are nowhere near accepting Brexit as a downgrade. We will get there eventually but there will be days and days and weeks and months of relentlessly dreary Brexit news to come. Remainers and Leavers are going through their different versions of Kuebler-Ross and are stuck in anger and denial, before moving on to acceptance.
    There’s also a lot of scope for discussion about what “worse” means though. In the heads of the EU, it’s worse that we don’t have ECJ jurisdiction and are not in the Cutoms Union - whereas I see those as positives.
    In the end it doesn't matter what worse means because we have rejected the status quo. The point is the new arrangement needs to be better than nothing. The problem is that both Leavers and Remainers are comparing better than nothing with the status quo - and think it's worse - rather than comparing it with, actually, nothing.
  • Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    The Irish believe - not without reason - that they have been bullied and humiliated by the British for generations.

    It's payback time.
    Why should those not born at the time and those yet to be born pay money to those who weren't alive at the time and did not suffer?
  • The EU gave Ireland prosperity, we gave Ireland the potato famine and partition.

    Anyone else shocked that the Irish are on the Team EU and not Team UK?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,880



    A hard border between GB and Northern Ireland would actually cause less disruption, I'd think, but politically not really feasible.

    Hmm... my suspicion is that if TM has to choose between screwing Northern Ireland or taking on the Brexiteers - she will do the former.

    Another billion or two can be found to keep the DUP in line.

    If there is no technological fudge solution that is.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    The Irish believe - not without reason - that they have been bullied and humiliated by the British for generations.

    It's payback time.
    Why should those not born at the time and those yet to be born pay money to those who weren't alive at the time and did not suffer?
    I'm still waiting for Sunil to give me an apology for his role in the potato famine
  • MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    In contrast, yesterday's ARD poll has the FDP and AfD down a bit:

    CDU/CSU: 32
    SPD: 22
    AfD: 11
    FDP: 10
    Left: 10
    Green: 11

    DeutschlandTrend

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,764

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Isn't it astonishing that other countries might also be motivated by non-economic considerations?
    Not at all, Ive always said Germany will put its own interest first

    Varadkars idiocy is letting himself be used to push Germany's agenda, just as things up north are returning to normal
    Yes, he should be putting pressure on the EU side to make sure a deal gets done that doesn’t need a border. Instead he’s doing the EU’s bidding to the UK with knobs on, and is more likely to scupper a chance of a good deal than create one.
    What the Irish want is for NI to stay in the customs union. This would effectively unite Ireland economically and it also happens to be what the people of NI voted for in the referendum. It's a very big prize for them. If they can't get that then their fallback is to try to scupper Brexit altogether and they calculate that forcing the UK closer to the cliff edge is the way to do it.

    It's an obvious course of action for Ireland - perfectly logical both politically and economically.
    And if their bluff is called?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,880
    Jonathan said:

    It will be tragic if Brexit undoes any of the recent progress in Northern Ireland.

    Absolutely.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Isn't it astonishing that other countries might also be motivated by non-economic considerations?
    Not at all, Ive always said Germany will put its own interest first

    Varadkars idiocy is letting himself be used to push Germany's agenda, just as things up north are returning to normal
    Yes, he should be putting pressure on the EU side to make sure a deal gets done that doesn’t need a border. Instead he’s doing the EU’s bidding to the UK with knobs on, and is more likely to scupper a chance of a good deal than create one.
    What the Irish want is for NI to stay in the customs union. This would effectively unite Ireland economically and it also happens to be what the people of NI voted for in the referendum. It's a very big prize for them. If they can't get that then their fallback is to try to scupper Brexit altogether and they calculate that forcing the UK closer to the cliff edge is the way to do it.

    It's an obvious course of action for Ireland - perfectly logical both politically and economically.
    It’s also putting a customs border in the Irish Sea, between one part of the UK and another part of the UK. Funnily enough the UK government isn’t too keep on having a border in the middle of our own country.
    Of course not. But the UK's position in these negotiations is weak and the Irish hope to exploit that weakness to push forward toward a united Ireland. I doubt they will succeed but it is not surprising that they are trying. The only surprise is that the UK appears surprised - another example of a complete failure to prepare or anticipate the positions other countries would take in the Brexit process.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    In contrast, yesterday's ARD poll has the FDP and AfD down a bit:

    CDU/CSU: 32
    SPD: 22
    AfD: 11
    FDP: 10
    Left: 10
    Green: 11

    DeutschlandTrend

    Yet even then CDU+FDP+AFD=53.

    CDU+Green=43.

    SPD+Green+Left=43.

    Only one majority combination there.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    The EU gave Ireland prosperity, we gave Ireland the potato famine and partition.

    Anyone else shocked that the Irish are on the Team EU and not Team UK?

    yes I am
  • Mr. Eagles, if Ireland's allowed to be grumpy about the potato famine, presumably that means the UK can be pissed at France for Napoleon, and Germany for both World Wars?

    Or we could perhaps learn the lessons of history and try to profit from that vicarious knowledge rather than be mindless slaves to what happened long before any of us were born, clinging to grudges like toddlers with a comfort blanket.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    The EU gave Ireland prosperity, we gave Ireland the potato famine and partition.

    Anyone else shocked that the Irish are on the Team EU and not Team UK?

    At this point we should probably differentiate between the Irish people and the Irish government... As the Irish people have said no to the EU twice and been bullied by the the EU and their own governments into changing their minds...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    If Merkel even contemplated a deal with Die Linke her own party and the CSU would topple her and replace her with a leader who backed a minority government, with FDP confidence and supply and deals with the AfD on tight votes if necessary.
    Merkel is a centre left leader, she would accept a coalition with the left, the rest of the party wouldn't but they would fall in line because it would keep them in power.
    I highly doubt it especially as I also cannot see Die Linke touching the CDU/CSU with a bargepole
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392

    image.

    What is with all the dachshunds being used in advertising lately? (See bottom of page) Is some senior ad exec making a killing out of what some perceive as a ‘ cute’ dog that he owns? Or is it just a fashion thing?
    Don't worry, come Brexit day they'll all be replaced with proper British breeds.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Isn't it astonishing that other countries might also be motivated by non-economic considerations?
    Not at all, Ive always said Germany will put its own interest first

    Varadkars idiocy is letting himself be used to push Germany's agenda, just as things up north are returning to normal
    Yes, he should be putting pressure on the EU side to make sure a deal gets done that doesn’t need a border. Instead he’s doing the EU’s bidding to the UK with knobs on, and is more likely to scupper a chance of a good deal than create one.
    What the Irish want is for NI to stay in the customs union. This would effectively unite Ireland economically and it also happens to be what the people of NI voted for in the referendum. It's a very big prize for them. If they can't get that then their fallback is to try to scupper Brexit altogether and they calculate that forcing the UK closer to the cliff edge is the way to do it.

    It's an obvious course of action for Ireland - perfectly logical both politically and economically.
    The DUP has won both NI elections post Brexit, it is they who decide what NI does not Varadkar
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,764

    Mr. Eagles, if Ireland's allowed to be grumpy about the potato famine, presumably that means the UK can be pissed at France for Napoleon, and Germany for both World Wars?

    Or we could perhaps learn the lessons of history and try to profit from that vicarious knowledge rather than be mindless slaves to what happened long before any of us were born, clinging to grudges like toddlers with a comfort blanket.

    As someone who's half Irish/half English am I due an apology for the Potato Famine, or should I give one?

  • Mr. F, I feel your pain, having Celtic, Saxon and probably Viking ancestry. I'm constantly conflicted as to how much of an apology I owe myself.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    In contrast, yesterday's ARD poll has the FDP and AfD down a bit:

    CDU/CSU: 32
    SPD: 22
    AfD: 11
    FDP: 10
    Left: 10
    Green: 11

    DeutschlandTrend

    All of the pollsters (except INSA) overestimated the Union in their final polls by at least three points and underestimated AfD by at least two points.

    The polls were far enough out to make a big difference to the outcome of the election. The same pollster had the Union on 37 points, had Merkel achieved that I don't think we'd be having this discussion as coalition with the FDP would probably have squeaked over the line.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    Mr. Eagles, if Ireland's allowed to be grumpy about the potato famine, presumably that means the UK can be pissed at France for Napoleon, and Germany for both World Wars?

    Yeah, why don't we charge Germany for WWI and WWII and tell them to take it off the Brexit bill? :D

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    It’s also putting a customs border in the Irish Sea, between one part of the UK and another part of the UK. Funnily enough the UK government isn’t too keep on having a border in the middle of our own country.

    You wouldn't normally expect them to. However if you have to choose a border, the sea is the practical place to put it. Your vehicle gets checked as it goes on the ship anyway. It's an hour or more journey - you don't just pop across.

    A white van crosses the ditch between Armagh and Monaghan. Is he just calling in to see his mum 5 minutes away or is the van packed with goods? You have no choice but to man the man the border. Given that border is hugely controversial anyway, the sea border might just get the nod.

    The other possible outcome is the UK stays in the Customs Union. There are good reasons to do so, as well one that suggests not. Maybe this will tip the balance.



  • I'd make no deal odds-on now.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Isn't it astonishing that other countries might also be motivated by non-economic considerations?
    Not at all, Ive always said Germany will put its own interest first

    Varadkars idiocy is letting himself be used to push Germany's agenda, just as things up north are returning to normal
    Yes, he should be putting pressure on the EU side to make sure a deal gets done that doesn’t need a border. Instead he’s doing the EU’s bidding to the UK with knobs on, and is more likely to scupper a chance of a good deal than create one.
    What the Irish want is for NI to stay in the customs union. This would effectively unite Ireland economically and it also happens to be what the people of NI voted for in the referendum. It's a very big prize for them. If they can't get that then their fallback is to try to scupper Brexit altogether and they calculate that forcing the UK closer to the cliff edge is the way to do it.

    It's an obvious course of action for Ireland - perfectly logical both politically and economically.
    And if their bluff is called?
    The Northern Ireland border problem doesn't go away.
  • Mr. Gin, Poland recently submitted a significant claim to Germany for WWII.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    I'd make no deal odds-on now.

    No deal = no Brexit.
  • HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    In contrast, yesterday's ARD poll has the FDP and AfD down a bit:

    CDU/CSU: 32
    SPD: 22
    AfD: 11
    FDP: 10
    Left: 10
    Green: 11

    DeutschlandTrend

    Yet even then CDU+FDP+AFD=53.

    CDU+Green=43.

    SPD+Green+Left=43.

    Only one majority combination there.
    But an unworkable one.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    If Merkel even contemplated a deal with Die Linke her own party and the CSU would topple her and replace her with a leader who backed a minority government, with FDP confidence and supply and deals with the AfD on tight votes if necessary.
    Merkel is a centre left leader, she would accept a coalition with the left, the rest of the party wouldn't but they would fall in line because it would keep them in power.
    I highly doubt it especially as I also cannot see Die Linke touching the CDU/CSU with a bargepole
    Agreed - as likely as Momentum affiliating to the Conservative Party. Totally bizarre idea.

    Not sure where MaxPB gets his figures from, as they differ from all the recent polls, which are numerous:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    Essentially the current expectation is virtually no change. The only marked change has been a sharp drop in popularity for the FDP leader after he walked out - that's not yet been reflected in a drop in FDP support, though, so it may be that his supporters are fine with it even though the wider electorate are not. Certainly CDU-FDP relations are now poor, and CDU-AfD relations are glacial: a CDU government dependent on AfD votes simply won't happen.

    My prediction FWIW is a long ineffective attempt to form a government, then fresh elections with mild strengthening of the big parties, then the SPD reluctantly going back into grand coalition. But that's a guess.
  • I'd make no deal odds-on now.

    No deal = no Brexit.
    No, it doesn't.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    I'd make no deal odds-on now.

    No deal = no Brexit.
    No, it doesn't.
    It does in practice. A no deal Brexit is beyond the capacity of the British state.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited November 2017

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    If Merkel even contemplated a deal with Die Linke her own party and the CSU would topple her and replace her with a leader who backed a minority government, with FDP confidence and supply and deals with the AfD on tight votes if necessary.
    Merkel is a centre left leader, she would accept a coalition with the left, the rest of the party wouldn't but they would fall in line because it would keep them in power.
    I highly doubt it especially as I also cannot see Die Linke touching the CDU/CSU with a bargepole
    Agreed - as likely as Momentum affiliating to the Conservative Party. Totally bizarre idea.

    Not sure where MaxPB gets his figures from, as they differ from all the recent polls, which are numerous:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    Essentially the current expectation is virtually no change. The only marked change has been a sharp drop in popularity for the FDP leader after he walked out - that's not yet been reflected in a drop in FDP support, though, so it may be that his supporters are fine with it even though the wider electorate are not. Certainly CDU-FDP relations are now poor, and CDU-AfD relations are glacial: a CDU government dependent on AfD votes simply won't happen.

    My prediction FWIW is a long ineffective attempt to form a government, then fresh elections with mild strengthening of the big parties, then the SPD reluctantly going back into grand coalition. But that's a guess.
    They are my predictions based on the trends of the previous election and the polling vs outcome.

    I'd make no deal odds-on now.

    No deal = no Brexit.
    No, it doesn't.
    Let him dream.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. Eagles, if Ireland's allowed to be grumpy about the potato famine, presumably that means the UK can be pissed at France for Napoleon, and Germany for both World Wars?

    Or we could perhaps learn the lessons of history and try to profit from that vicarious knowledge rather than be mindless slaves to what happened long before any of us were born, clinging to grudges like toddlers with a comfort blanket.

    As someone who's half Irish/half English am I due an apology for the Potato Famine, or should I give one?

    Well, my Welsh ancestors were coal miners, so it’s ...... oh hang on.
  • Mr. Gin, Poland recently submitted a significant claim to Germany for WWII.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.

    Mr Dancer, we’re the ones that gave the Irish unlimited immigration without their consent that changed their Island, now we’re the ones banging on about unlimited immigration, which amuses them.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited November 2017
    FF43 said:


    A white van crosses the ditch between Armagh and Monaghan. Is he just calling in to see his mum 5 minutes away or is the van packed with goods? You have no choice but to man the man the border.

    Utter nonsense.

    For a start, by your logic the border should be manned and every white van inspected at the moment. It might be carrying booze or fags. There has been a lot of such smuggling, but we don't have a hard border.

    Secondly, under any sensible deal there will be special arrangements for people who live close to the border (which could be extended to the whole island, if our EU friends agree). That's exactly what happens at the French/Swiss border.

    Thirdly, if there are no tariffs to pay (which is what we want), then the paperwork for those cases which do need customs clearance can be quite simple, and done electronically.

    Given that the EU, the Republic, the UK and the Northern Irish all agree that we don't want a hard border, this really shouldn't be an issue at all. Lord only knows why the EU are making it so, let alone why the Irish government seems to want to shoot its feet off on this.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Mr. Eagles, if Ireland's allowed to be grumpy about the potato famine, presumably that means the UK can be pissed at France for Napoleon, and Germany for both World Wars?

    Yeah, why don't we charge Germany for WWI and WWII and tell them to take it off the Brexit bill? :D

    We did charge Germany for WWI and then let them off the payment.

    It was thought they would be grateful and friendly afterwards.

    The Soviets and Poles didn't make that mistake after WWII.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Isn't it astonishing that other countries might also be motivated by non-economic considerations?
    Not at all, Ive always said Germany will put its own interest first

    Varadkars idiocy is letting himself be used to push Germany's agenda, just as things up north are returning to normal
    Yes, he should be putting pressure on the EU side to make sure a deal gets done that doesn’t need a border. Instead he’s doing the EU’s bidding to the UK with knobs on, and is more likely to scupper a chance of a good deal than create one.
    What the Irish want is for NI to stay in the customs union. This would effectively unite Ireland economically and it also happens to be what the people of NI voted for in the referendum. It's a very big prize for them. If they can't get that then their fallback is to try to scupper Brexit altogether and they calculate that forcing the UK closer to the cliff edge is the way to do it.

    It's an obvious course of action for Ireland - perfectly logical both politically and economically.
    The DUP has won both NI elections post Brexit, it is they who decide what NI does not Varadkar
    But they must not question the Will of the People. Which in NI is to stay in the EU.
  • MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    If Merkel even contemplated a deal with Die Linke her own party and the CSU would topple her and replace her with a leader who backed a minority government, with FDP confidence and supply and deals with the AfD on tight votes if necessary.
    Merkel is a centre left leader, she would accept a coalition with the left, the rest of the party wouldn't but they would fall in line because it would keep them in power.
    Merkel always prefers to dress to the left, rather than the right.

    She'd probably prefer a deal with the Greens, to the FDP, and the AfD (in any form) over her dead body.
  • I know he’s an expert and he’s no Willie Walsh but still...

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/932947149960212480
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Mr. Gin, Poland recently submitted a significant claim to Germany for WWII.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.

    Mr Dancer, we’re the ones that gave the Irish unlimited immigration without their consent that changed their Island, now we’re the ones banging on about unlimited immigration, which amuses them.
    are you suggesting that the English actually caused the potato famine ?
  • FF43 said:


    A white van crosses the ditch between Armagh and Monaghan. Is he just calling in to see his mum 5 minutes away or is the van packed with goods? You have no choice but to man the man the border.

    Utter nonsense.

    For a start, by your logic the border should be manned and every white van inspected at the moment. It might be carrying booze or fags. There has been a lot of such smuggling, but we don't have a hard border.

    Secondly, under any sensible deal there will be special arrangements for people who live close to the border (which could be extended to the whole island, if our EU friends agree). That's exactly what happens at the French/Swiss border.

    Thirdly, if there are no tariffs to pay (which is what we want), then the paperwork for those cases which do need customs clearance can be quite simple, and done electronically.

    Given that the EU, the Republic, the UK and the Northern Irish all agree that we don't want a hard border, this really shouldn't be an issue at all. Lord only knows why the EU are making it so, let alone why the Irish government seems to want to shoot its feet off on this.
    The solution is to do electronic customs borders, and occasional intelligence-led spot checks on both sides, but otherwise largely turn a blind eye to an element of smuggling across the Irish Border. This will always occur, but the scale and scope of this is limited by the scheduled ferries/air transport movements between EIRE/EU, and NI/UK, and is not enough to significantly undermine the customs regimes of either the EU or UK.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    I know he’s an expert and he’s no Willie Walsh but still...

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/932947149960212480

    You think that we wouldn't come to an agreement that our standards for aerospace parts matches (via ISO) that of the EU?

    The EU nations are not going to cut their own balls off to please the commission.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Isn't it astonishing that other countries might also be motivated by non-economic considerations?
    Not at all, Ive always said Germany will put its own interest first

    Varadkars idiocy is letting himself be used to push Germany's agenda, just as things up north are returning to normal
    Yes, he should be putting pressure on the EU side to make sure a deal gets done that doesn’t need a border. Instead he’s doing the EU’s bidding to the UK with knobs on, and is more likely to scupper a chance of a good deal than create one.
    What the Irish want is for NI to stay in the customs union. This would effectively unite Ireland economically and it also happens to be what the people of NI voted for in the referendum. It's a very big prize for them. If they can't get that then their fallback is to try to scupper Brexit altogether and they calculate that forcing the UK closer to the cliff edge is the way to do it.

    It's an obvious course of action for Ireland - perfectly logical both politically and economically.
    The DUP has won both NI elections post Brexit, it is they who decide what NI does not Varadkar
    But they must not question the Will of the People. Which in NI is to stay in the EU.
    Yet post Brexit a majority of Northern Ireland voters voted for the DUP, a Brexit backing party, confirming that for a majority of the people of Northern Ireland Unionism is more important than diehard Remainerism.
  • Mr. Gin, Poland recently submitted a significant claim to Germany for WWII.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.

    Mr Dancer, we’re the ones that gave the Irish unlimited immigration without their consent that changed their Island, now we’re the ones banging on about unlimited immigration, which amuses them.
    Good that we both agree that unlimited immigration risks fundamental social and political change, then.
  • Mr. Gin, Poland recently submitted a significant claim to Germany for WWII.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.

    Mr Dancer, we’re the ones that gave the Irish unlimited immigration without their consent that changed their Island, now we’re the ones banging on about unlimited immigration, which amuses them.
    are you suggesting that the English actually caused the potato famine ?
    I’m talking about the conquest of Ireland when the Bishop of Rome and his sky fairy gave us permission to do so.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    If Merkel even contemplated a deal with Die Linke her own party and the CSU would topple her and replace her with a leader who backed a minority government, with FDP confidence and supply and deals with the AfD on tight votes if necessary.
    Merkel is a centre left leader, she would accept a coalition with the left, the rest of the party wouldn't but they would fall in line because it would keep them in power.
    Merkel always prefers to dress to the left, rather than the right.

    She'd probably prefer a deal with the Greens, to the FDP, and the AfD (in any form) over her dead body.
    I guess from some people's perspective everyone is to the left. It does not necessarily imply any alignment between those groups.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    It will be tragic if Brexit undoes any of the recent progress in Northern Ireland.

    It won't
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    If Merkel even contemplated a deal with Die Linke her own party and the CSU would topple her and replace her with a leader who backed a minority government, with FDP confidence and supply and deals with the AfD on tight votes if necessary.
    Merkel is a centre left leader, she would accept a coalition with the left, the rest of the party wouldn't but they would fall in line because it would keep them in power.
    I highly doubt it especially as I also cannot see Die Linke touching the CDU/CSU with a bargepole
    Agreed - as likely as Momentum affiliating to the Conservative Party. Totally bizarre idea.

    Not sure where MaxPB gets his figures from, as they differ from all the recent polls, which are numerous:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    Essentially the current expectation is virtually no change. The only marked change has been a sharp drop in popularity for the FDP leader after he walked out - that's not yet been reflected in a drop in FDP support, though, so it may be that his supporters are fine with it even though the wider electorate are not. Certainly CDU-FDP relations are now poor, and CDU-AfD relations are glacial: a CDU government dependent on AfD votes simply won't happen.

    My prediction FWIW is a long ineffective attempt to form a government, then fresh elections with mild strengthening of the big parties, then the SPD reluctantly going back into grand coalition. But that's a guess.
    I think the SPD now see another Coalition with the CDU as political suicide so the only solution is a CDU/CSU minority government
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543

    FF43 said:


    A white van crosses the ditch between Armagh and Monaghan. Is he just calling in to see his mum 5 minutes away or is the van packed with goods? You have no choice but to man the man the border.

    Utter nonsense.

    For a start, by your logic the border should be manned and every white van inspected at the moment. It might be carrying booze or fags. There has been a lot of such smuggling, but we don't have a hard border.

    Secondly, under any sensible deal there will be special arrangements for people who live close to the border (which could be extended to the whole island, if our EU friends agree). That's exactly what happens at the French/Swiss border.

    Thirdly, if there are no tariffs to pay (which is what we want), then the paperwork for those cases which do need customs clearance can be quite simple, and done electronically.

    Given that the EU, the Republic, the UK and the Northern Irish all agree that we don't want a hard border, this really shouldn't be an issue at all. Lord only knows why the EU are making it so, let alone why the Irish government seems to want to shoot its feet off on this.
    My point is you can't rely on certified companies processing the red tape away from the border, as implied by the British [non-] position paper. You have to check the vans and the people actually crossing the border, just as they do on the French/Swiss border, and did much more intensively in the days before Switzerland was in the Single Market.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    edited November 2017
    Going all remainery for a moment, if there is any one thing giving me confidence that a deal will be reached, however lousy, it's that the UK side have backpedalled on every single issue to date when push has come to shove.

    £350m a week - never said that
    First call will be to Berlin not Brussels - EU have ruled out and stuck to individual negotiations
    Go whistle - whistle to tune of £40bn
    Row over talks sequencing - agreed on the first week (possibly the worst decision of the lot as the EU have wedged us in all autumn on that)
    No jobs lost - 2 agencies leaving the UK just yesterday
    Out in 2 years - transition please
    German Car manufacturers will demand a deal - Bis spater
    We'll start trade talks in October - what's a couple of months between friends?
    No ECJ authority - well ok on citizens rights and in transition.
    Ruling out hard border in Northern Ireland - now we 'seek alternatives'

    Genuine question - is there a good example of anything where we've either stood our ground or had a victory? Looks pretty one way traffic from here. But do I believe that the UK Gvt really believe no deal is better than a bad deal? Nah - they wouldn't have moved on all of this if they did.

    I know plenty of the above is Leave b*l*s*i* that was never designed to meet reality, but there's still plenty of doubt over whether the Gvt will stand its ground anywhere.
  • I'd make no deal odds-on now.

    No deal = no Brexit.
    No, it doesn't.
    It does in practice. A no deal Brexit is beyond the capacity of the British state.
    These are the standard shibboleths of the EU, and its body of supporters, who are incapable of seeing their world as others do:

    (1) Brexit is an internal Tory civil war
    (2) The vote was the fault of the right-wing tabloid press
    (3) The UK will give up on Brexit if the EU is sufficiently tough during negotiations

    They are all wrong.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited November 2017
    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    It will be tragic if Brexit undoes any of the recent progress in Northern Ireland.

    It won't
    Hope you're right. Recent experience suggests otherwise. London and Dublin are further apart than they have been in years.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The EU gave Ireland prosperity, we gave Ireland the potato famine and partition.

    Anyone else shocked that the Irish are on the Team EU and not Team UK?

    I might know more about both those topics than you...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mad

    Varadkar has lost the plot
    Isn't it astonishing that other countries might also be motivated by non-economic considerations?
    Not at all, Ive always said Germany will put its own interest first

    Varadkars idiocy is letting himself be used to push Germany's agenda, just as things up north are returning to normal
    Yes, he should be putting pressure on the EU side to make sure a deal gets done that doesn’t need a border. Instead he’s doing the EU’s bidding to the UK with knobs on, and is more likely to scupper a chance of a good deal than create one.
    What the Irish want is for NI to stay in the customs union. This would effectively unite Ireland economically and it also happens to be what the people of NI voted for in the referendum. It's a very big prize for them. If they can't get that then their fallback is to try to scupper Brexit altogether and they calculate that forcing the UK closer to the cliff edge is the way to do it.

    It's an obvious course of action for Ireland - perfectly logical both politically and economically.
    The DUP has won both NI elections post Brexit, it is they who decide what NI does not Varadkar
    But they must not question the Will of the People. Which in NI is to stay in the EU.
    Yet post Brexit a majority of Northern Ireland voters voted for the DUP, a Brexit backing party, confirming that for a majority of the people of Northern Ireland Unionism is more important than diehard Remainerism.
    Yes, the same is true for Scotland. We saw at the election that unionism far outweighed any anguish caused by Brexit.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Mr. Gin, Poland recently submitted a significant claim to Germany for WWII.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.

    Mr Dancer, we’re the ones that gave the Irish unlimited immigration without their consent that changed their Island, now we’re the ones banging on about unlimited immigration, which amuses them.
    are you suggesting that the English actually caused the potato famine ?
    I’m talking about the conquest of Ireland when the Bishop of Rome and his sky fairy gave us permission to do so.
    Ireland wasn't invaded by the English it was invaded by the French

    Normans who got invited to join a civil war by an Irish chief

    But then the Normans pretty much got stuck in to every civil conflict going in Europe at the time
  • Charles said:

    The EU gave Ireland prosperity, we gave Ireland the potato famine and partition.

    Anyone else shocked that the Irish are on the Team EU and not Team UK?

    I might know more about both those topics than you...
    Please share your wisdom with us all.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Any of the bookmakers got odds on the German election ie. when it will be, and whether Merkel will be leading the CDU?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. Eagles, if Ireland's allowed to be grumpy about the potato famine, presumably that means the UK can be pissed at France for Napoleon, and Germany for both World Wars?

    Or we could perhaps learn the lessons of history and try to profit from that vicarious knowledge rather than be mindless slaves to what happened long before any of us were born, clinging to grudges like toddlers with a comfort blanket.

    As someone who's half Irish/half English am I due an apology for the Potato Famine, or should I give one?

    Once every year, you're required throw potatoes at yourself until you cry tears of joy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Charles said:

    The EU gave Ireland prosperity, we gave Ireland the potato famine and partition.

    Anyone else shocked that the Irish are on the Team EU and not Team UK?

    I might know more about both those topics than you...
    Willy waving is dangerous on pb.com.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited November 2017
    FF43 said:

    My point is you can't rely on certified companies processing the red tape away from the border, as implied by the British [non-] position paper. You have to check the vans and the people actually crossing the border, just as they do on the French/Swiss border, and did much more intensively in the days before Switzerland was in the Single Market.


    Of course you don't 'have' to. There's no universal law of nature operating here. As with any compliance issue, you can take a sensible risk-based approach, exactly as we do with checking VAT returns or income tax returns, or indeed cross-border smuggling of booze'n'fags at the Irish border. Furthermore, if there are no tariffs then there really isn't much compliance to worry about.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    If Merkel even contemplated a deal with Die Linke her own party and the CSU would topple her and replace her with a leader who backed a minority government, with FDP confidence and supply and deals with the AfD on tight votes if necessary.
    Merkel is a centre left leader, she would accept a coalition with the left, the rest of the party wouldn't but they would fall in line because it would keep them in power.
    I highly doubt it especially as I also cannot see Die Linke touching the CDU/CSU with a bargepole
    Agreed - as likely as Momentum affiliating to the Conservative Party. Totally bizarre idea.

    Not sure where MaxPB gets his figures from, as they differ from all the recent polls, which are numerous:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    Essentially the current expectation is virtually no change. The only marked change has been a sharp drop in popularity for the FDP leader after he walked out - that's not yet been reflected in a drop in FDP support, though, so it may be that his supporters are fine with it even though the wider electorate are not. Certainly CDU-FDP relations are now poor, and CDU-AfD relations are glacial: a CDU government dependent on AfD votes simply won't happen.

    My prediction FWIW is a long ineffective attempt to form a government, then fresh elections with mild strengthening of the big parties, then the SPD reluctantly going back into grand coalition. But that's a guess.
    Discussed with my other half last night. Apparently only the president (Steinmeier) can authorise new elections and he's clearly not keen to do so, so we certainly agree there will be exhaustive attempts to form a government. She thought that Merkel would only go if the CSU (Bavarian sister party to CDU) wanted her out, so that's the key sign to watch.

    We didn't get as far as the final part of that prediction but I would not bet against it. Problem with a grand coalition is that is allows all 4 opposition parties free reign to gang up on the big 2 parties and one or more may really break through as a result.
  • Mr. Gin, Poland recently submitted a significant claim to Germany for WWII.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.

    Mr Dancer, we’re the ones that gave the Irish unlimited immigration without their consent that changed their Island, now we’re the ones banging on about unlimited immigration, which amuses them.
    are you suggesting that the English actually caused the potato famine ?
    I’m talking about the conquest of Ireland when the Bishop of Rome and his sky fairy gave us permission to do so.
    Ireland wasn't invaded by the English it was invaded by the French

    Normans who got invited to join a civil war by an Irish chief

    But then the Normans pretty much got stuck in to every civil conflict going in Europe at the time
    So we should cede control of Norn Iron to France?

    I can live with that.
  • Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just been looking at some voter data for Germany, I think the Union will lose 5 points and AfD will gain 3 points and FDP 2 points. I also think the SPD will lose 2 points and the Greens will gain 2 points.

    My final scores look like this:

    CDU/CSU 28
    SPD 18.5
    AfD 15.5
    FDP 13
    Left 10
    Green 10

    That's going to make any coalition very, very tough to form, we might even be looking at the Union+Green+Left to make the numbers work. AfD has made Germany ungovernable IMO, at least with Merkel in charge.

    If Merkel even contemplated a deal with Die Linke her own party and the CSU would topple her and replace her with a leader who backed a minority government, with FDP confidence and supply and deals with the AfD on tight votes if necessary.
    Merkel is a centre left leader, she would accept a coalition with the left, the rest of the party wouldn't but they would fall in line because it would keep them in power.
    Merkel always prefers to dress to the left, rather than the right.

    She'd probably prefer a deal with the Greens, to the FDP, and the AfD (in any form) over her dead body.
    I guess from some people's perspective everyone is to the left. It does not necessarily imply any alignment between those groups.
    You think I'm wrong? I believe that's evidence based from her behaviour in office.
  • tpfkar said:

    Going all remainery for a moment, if there is any one thing giving me confidence that a deal will be reached, however lousy, it's that the UK side have backpedalled on every single issue to date when push has come to shove.

    £350m a week - never said that
    First call will be to Berlin not Brussels - EU have ruled out and stuck to individual negotiations
    Go whistle - whistle to tune of £40bn
    Row over talks sequencing - agreed on the first week (possibly the worst decision of the lot as the EU have wedged us in all autumn on that)
    No jobs lost - 2 agencies leaving the UK just yesterday
    Out in 2 years - transition please
    German Car manufacturers will demand a deal - Bis spater
    We'll start trade talks in October - what's a couple of months between friends?
    No ECJ authority - well ok on citizens rights and in transition.
    Ruling out hard border in Northern Ireland - now we 'seek alternatives'

    Genuine question - is there a good example of anything where we've either stood our ground or had a victory? Looks pretty one way traffic from here. But do I believe that the UK Gvt really believe no deal is better than a bad deal? Nah - they wouldn't have moved on all of this if they did.

    I know plenty of the above is Leave b*l*s*i* that was never designed to meet reality, but there's still plenty of doubt over whether the Gvt will stand its ground anywhere.

    The EU have agreed nothing is agreed until everything is agreed (under the A50 deal) and have moved on the ECJ having full and exclusive oversight of EU citizens in the UK.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    edited November 2017

    FF43 said:

    My point is you can't rely on certified companies processing the red tape away from the border, as implied by the British [non-] position paper. You have to check the vans and the people actually crossing the border, just as they do on the French/Swiss border, and did much more intensively in the days before Switzerland was in the Single Market.


    Of course you don't 'have' to. There's no universal law of nature operating here. As with any compliance issue, you can take a sensible risk-based approach, exactly as we do with checking VAT returns or income tax returns. Furthermore, if there are no tariffs then there really isn't much compliance to worry about.
    Apart from the implication that the DExEU is talking complete bollocks of course. In any case it's not just common tariffs. All agricultural produce has to be tested at the point of entry into the EU on current regulation. Of course if we stay in the Customs Union it really would be different.
  • Pong said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. Eagles, if Ireland's allowed to be grumpy about the potato famine, presumably that means the UK can be pissed at France for Napoleon, and Germany for both World Wars?

    Or we could perhaps learn the lessons of history and try to profit from that vicarious knowledge rather than be mindless slaves to what happened long before any of us were born, clinging to grudges like toddlers with a comfort blanket.

    As someone who's half Irish/half English am I due an apology for the Potato Famine, or should I give one?

    Once every year, you're required throw potatoes at yourself until you cry tears of joy.
    I suggest Sean just develops a chip on his shoulder.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited November 2017
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    image.

    WTO it is then
    Guarantee us no hard border, or we'll give you a hard border.

    That's a bit like the threat made by the black sheriff in Blazing Saddles.
    Not really. Ireland are doing a credible impression of a government that has decided that no deal is for them better than a bad deal, the logic of which was set out in this piece:

    http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/

    My suspicion is that they are bluffing, but it's credible enough. Brexit is disastrous enough for Ireland that an unmitigated version might not be viewed as the worst.
    fecking mathe plot
    Isn't it astonishing that other countries might also be motivated by non-economic considerations?
    Not at all, Ive always said Germany will put its own interest first

    Varadkars idiocy is letting himself be used to push Germany's agenda, just as things up north are returning to normal
    Yes, he should be putting pressure on the EU side to make sure a deal gets done that doesn’t need a border. Instead he’s doing the EU’s bidding to the UK with knobs on, and is more likely to scupper a chance of a good deal than create one.
    What the Irish want is for NI to stay in the customs union. to the cliff edge is the way to do it.

    It's an obvious course of action for Ireland - perfectly logical both politically and economically.
    The DUP has won both NI elections post Brexit, it is they who decide what NI does not Varadkar
    But they must not question the Will of the People. Which in NI is to stay in the EU.
    Yet post Brexit a majority of Northern Ireland voters voted sm.
    Yes, the same is true for Scotland. We saw at the election that unionism far outweighed any anguish caused by Brexit.
    Indeed, if anguish caused by Brexit was paramount then the SNP would have won a clear majority of votes and seats in Scotland and Sinn Fein a clear majority of votes and seats in Northern Ireland.

    Neither did so.

    In fact pro Brexit parties ie the Tories and Labour won a majority of votes in all 3 countries of the UK mainland, England, Wales and Scotland and the pro Brexit DUP won most votes and seats in Northern Ireland at the general election.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Mr. Gin, Poland recently submitted a significant claim to Germany for WWII.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.

    Mr Dancer, we’re the ones that gave the Irish unlimited immigration without their consent that changed their Island, now we’re the ones banging on about unlimited immigration, which amuses them.
    are you suggesting that the English actually caused the potato famine ?
    I’m talking about the conquest of Ireland when the Bishop of Rome and his sky fairy gave us permission to do so.
    Ireland wasn't invaded by the English it was invaded by the French

    Normans who got invited to join a civil war by an Irish chief

    But then the Normans pretty much got stuck in to every civil conflict going in Europe at the time
    So we should cede control of Norn Iron to France?

    I can live with that.
    What with all those Huguenots, they might feel at home
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    TonyE said:

    I know he’s an expert and he’s no Willie Walsh but still...

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/932947149960212480

    You think that we wouldn't come to an agreement that our standards for aerospace parts matches (via ISO) that of the EU?

    The EU nations are not going to cut their own balls off to please the commission.
    That’s pretty much every Boeing and every Airbus flying, plus Bombardier and many more. Are the EU so determined to make Brexit Hell for Britain, that they’re willing to completely undermine their reputation with every other country on Earth?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    The EU gave Ireland prosperity, we gave Ireland the potato famine and partition.

    Anyone else shocked that the Irish are on the Team EU and not Team UK?

    I might know more about both those topics than you...
    Please share your wisdom with us all.
    The blight was part of an EU wide agricultural depression (1848 was the year of revolutions for a reason). And many of the Ascendancy beggared themselves giving succour to their people (e.g. my family gave away or sold 200,000 acres to help)

    Partition was the fault of James Craig not the English. Edward Carson (who the English listened to) wanted to keep Ireland united but in the Union, but was outmanoeuvred by the Northeners. The Irish brought it on themselves
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    tpfkar said:

    Going all remainery for a moment, if there is any one thing giving me confidence that a deal will be reached, however lousy, it's that the UK side have backpedalled on every single issue to date when push has come to shove.

    £350m a week - never said that
    First call will be to Berlin not Brussels - EU have ruled out and stuck to individual negotiations
    Go whistle - whistle to tune of £40bn
    Row over talks sequencing - agreed on the first week (possibly the worst decision of the lot as the EU have wedged us in all autumn on that)
    No jobs lost - 2 agencies leaving the UK just yesterday
    Out in 2 years - transition please
    German Car manufacturers will demand a deal - Bis spater
    We'll start trade talks in October - what's a couple of months between friends?
    No ECJ authority - well ok on citizens rights and in transition.
    Ruling out hard border in Northern Ireland - now we 'seek alternatives'

    Genuine question - is there a good example of anything where we've either stood our ground or had a victory? Looks pretty one way traffic from here. But do I believe that the UK Gvt really believe no deal is better than a bad deal? Nah - they wouldn't have moved on all of this if they did.

    I know plenty of the above is Leave b*l*s*i* that was never designed to meet reality, but there's still plenty of doubt over whether the Gvt will stand its ground anywhere.

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    The EU gave Ireland prosperity, we gave Ireland the potato famine and partition.

    Anyone else shocked that the Irish are on the Team EU and not Team UK?

    I might know more about both those topics than you...
    Willy waving is dangerous on pb.com.
    Indeed, which is why TSE shouldn't do it
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited November 2017
    FF43 said:

    Apart from the implication that the DExEU is talking complete bollocks of course. In any case it's not just common tariffs. All agricultural produce has to be tested at the point of entry into the EU on current regulation. Of course if we stay in the Customs Union it really would be different.

    The EU can choose, if it wishes, to test agricultural products. That's up to them. Or they can choose to recognise UK standards, or to recognise Northern Irish produce only. Entirely up to them, it's not the UK being awkward. Quite the opposite, we have been asking for a deal since immediately after the referendum.

    This is the most Alice-in-Wonderland argument I've ever seen. The EU and the Irish Republic are demanding written guarantees from the UK that the EU and the Irish Republic won't impose a hard border. If that weren't bonkers enough, they're managing to make it even more bonkers by refusing to start the discussion which might make it easier for the EU and the Irish Republic not to impose a hard border.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    I'd be happy to take a little punt on Merkel not being leader at the next German election. Those who say the entry of the AfD into parliament has buggered German politics up are correct, but Merkel has to take a lot of responsibility for this by moving her party too far to the left and opening up the space for them. It's hard to see how new elections will produce a different result unless she goes. Options for govt are limited - there will be no govt that includes AfD or Linke, so there's only about 75% to find 50% from. If Merkel goes the CDU might gain some of their losses back, and the SPD and/or FDP might think about working with them again.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    Going all remainery for a moment, if there is any one thing giving me confidence that a deal will be reached, however lousy, it's that the UK side have backpedalled on every single issue to date when push has come to shove.

    £350m a week - never said that
    First call will be to Berlin not Brussels - EU have ruled out and stuck to individual negotiations
    Go whistle - whistle to tune of £40bn
    Row over talks sequencing - agreed on the first week (possibly the worst decision of the lot as the EU have wedged us in all autumn on that)
    No jobs lost - 2 agencies leaving the UK just yesterday
    Out in 2 years - transition please
    German Car manufacturers will demand a deal - Bis spater
    We'll start trade talks in October - what's a couple of months between friends?
    No ECJ authority - well ok on citizens rights and in transition.
    Ruling out hard border in Northern Ireland - now we 'seek alternatives'

    Genuine question - is there a good example of anything where we've either stood our ground or had a victory? Looks pretty one way traffic from here. But do I believe that the UK Gvt really believe no deal is better than a bad deal? Nah - they wouldn't have moved on all of this if they did.

    I know plenty of the above is Leave b*l*s*i* that was never designed to meet reality, but there's still plenty of doubt over whether the Gvt will stand its ground anywhere.

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.
    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    edited November 2017

    tpfkar said:

    Going all remainery for a moment, if there is any one thing giving me confidence that a deal will be reached, however lousy, it's that the UK side have backpedalled on every single issue to date when push has come to shove.

    £350m a week - never said that
    First call will be to Berlin not Brussels - EU have ruled out and stuck to individual negotiations
    Go whistle - whistle to tune of £40bn
    Row over talks sequencing - agreed on the first week (possibly the worst decision of the lot as the EU have wedged us in all autumn on that)
    No jobs lost - 2 agencies leaving the UK just yesterday
    Out in 2 years - transition please
    German Car manufacturers will demand a deal - Bis spater
    We'll start trade talks in October - what's a couple of months between friends?
    No ECJ authority - well ok on citizens rights and in transition.
    Ruling out hard border in Northern Ireland - now we 'seek alternatives'

    Genuine question - is there a good example of anything where we've either stood our ground or had a victory? Looks pretty one way traffic from here. But do I believe that the UK Gvt really believe no deal is better than a bad deal? Nah - they wouldn't have moved on all of this if they did.

    I know plenty of the above is Leave b*l*s*i* that was never designed to meet reality, but there's still plenty of doubt over whether the Gvt will stand its ground anywhere.

    The EU have agreed nothing is agreed until everything is agreed (under the A50 deal) and have moved on the ECJ having full and exclusive oversight of EU citizens in the UK.
    Actually "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" is a core tenet of the EU's negotiating guidelines. So they haven't moved on that, but perhaps helpful if it looks like they did on something.

    Edit and slight revision. The guidelines are firm in some places and vague in others, to give room for manouevre. There is space for trade-off. They have also accepted in principle that the relationship will be an FTA because we requested that.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545

    Mr. Gin, Poland recently submitted a significant claim to Germany for WWII.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.

    Mr Dancer, we’re the ones that gave the Irish unlimited immigration without their consent that changed their Island, now we’re the ones banging on about unlimited immigration, which amuses them.
    are you suggesting that the English actually caused the potato famine ?
    I’m talking about the conquest of Ireland when the Bishop of Rome and his sky fairy gave us permission to do so.
    Ireland wasn't invaded by the English it was invaded by the French

    Normans who got invited to join a civil war by an Irish chief

    But then the Normans pretty much got stuck in to every civil conflict going in Europe at the time
    Irish folklore contains a huge amount of material based on emigration and oppression and it all has an anti-British undertone. There is a vast list of grievances, including but not limited to

    Henry VII and Elizabeth I (bringing in protestant settlers)
    Cromwell
    William of Orange
    Religious persecution (the penal laws)
    The potato famine
    Absentee English landlords
    The Black and Tans
    Partition
    The B Specials
    Discrimination against nationalists by the old Stormont regime before 1972

    No British monarch was ever invited to visit the Irish Republic, despite its close proximity to the UK, before the Queen went in 2011.

    It's hardly surprising that Ireland is taking an anti-British position on Brexit.


  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    I know he’s an expert and he’s no Willie Walsh but still...

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/932947149960212480

    You think that we wouldn't come to an agreement that our standards for aerospace parts matches (via ISO) that of the EU?

    The EU nations are not going to cut their own balls off to please the commission.
    That’s pretty much every Boeing and every Airbus flying, plus Bombardier and many more. Are the EU so determined to make Brexit Hell for Britain, that they’re willing to completely undermine their reputation with every other country on Earth?
    Either the UK does a Norway, or the Airbus wings will move from Broughton to Toulouse.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Dadge said:

    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    I know he’s an expert and he’s no Willie Walsh but still...

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/932947149960212480

    You think that we wouldn't come to an agreement that our standards for aerospace parts matches (via ISO) that of the EU?

    The EU nations are not going to cut their own balls off to please the commission.
    That’s pretty much every Boeing and every Airbus flying, plus Bombardier and many more. Are the EU so determined to make Brexit Hell for Britain, that they’re willing to completely undermine their reputation with every other country on Earth?
    Either the UK does a Norway, or the Airbus wings will move from Broughton to Toulouse.
    And all of the existing planes that have UK made components (basically every single plane in the world)?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    edited November 2017

    Mr. Gin, Poland recently submitted a significant claim to Germany for WWII.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.

    Mr Dancer, we’re the ones that gave the Irish unlimited immigration without their consent that changed their Island, now we’re the ones banging on about unlimited immigration, which amuses them.
    are you suggesting that the English actually caused the potato famine ?
    I’m talking about the conquest of Ireland when the Bishop of Rome and his sky fairy gave us permission to do so.
    Ireland wasn't invaded by the English it was invaded by the French

    Normans who got invited to join a civil war by an Irish chief

    But then the Normans pretty much got stuck in to every civil conflict going in Europe at the time
    Irish folklore contains a huge amount of material based on emigration and oppression and it all has an anti-British undertone. There is a vast list of grievances, including but not limited to

    Henry VII and Elizabeth I (bringing in protestant settlers)
    Cromwell
    William of Orange
    Religious persecution (the penal laws)
    The potato famine
    Absentee English landlords
    The Black and Tans
    Partition
    The B Specials
    Discrimination against nationalists by the old Stormont regime before 1972

    No British monarch was ever invited to visit the Irish Republic, despite its close proximity to the UK, before the Queen went in 2011.

    It's hardly surprising that Ireland is taking an anti-British position on Brexit.


    so fucking what ?

    Central Europe has been through the worst of 2 world wars - murder, genocide, ethnic cleansing on an industrial scale, economic wipe out - and they still pick themselves up by their boot straps and get on with it

    Time for Ireland to let bygones be bygones
  • Dadge said:

    I'd be happy to take a little punt on Merkel not being leader at the next German election. Those who say the entry of the AfD into parliament has buggered German politics up are correct, but Merkel has to take a lot of responsibility for this by moving her party too far to the left and opening up the space for them. It's hard to see how new elections will produce a different result unless she goes. Options for govt are limited - there will be no govt that includes AfD or Linke, so there's only about 75% to find 50% from. If Merkel goes the CDU might gain some of their losses back, and the SPD and/or FDP might think about working with them again.

    That doesn't seem to make sense. Why would the SPD, a centre-left party, be more likely to want to work with a more right-wing CDU?
  • Shocked at lack of threads on our local elections in Denmark - I’ll be voting in my first overseas election and the tension is incredible - Slogans like ‘Frederiksberg where citizens are satisfied because everything works’ really demonstrate the level of mudslinging going on.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our public finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our puqblic finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    I don't see people on the streets because the EMA and EBA relocated to Amsterdam and Paris.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    edited November 2017

    Mr. Gin, Poland recently submitted a significant claim to Germany for WWII.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.

    Mr Dancer, we’re the ones that gave the Irish unlimited immigration without their consent that changed their Island, now we’re the ones banging on about unlimited immigration, which amuses them.
    are you suggesting that the English actually caused the potato famine ?
    I’m talking about the conquest of Ireland when the Bishop of Rome and his sky fairy gave us permission to do so.
    Ireland wasn't invaded by the English it was invaded by the French

    Normans who got invited to join a civil war by an Irish chief

    But then the Normans pretty much got stuck in to every civil conflict going in Europe at the time
    So we should cede control of Norn Iron to France?

    I can live with that.
    What with all those Huguenots, they might feel at home
    Surely, in Norn Iron they are Hugueno - no - nos?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    Mr. Gin, Poland recently submitted a significant claim to Germany for WWII.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, children.

    Mr Dancer, we’re the ones that gave the Irish unlimited immigration without their consent that changed their Island, now we’re the ones banging on about unlimited immigration, which amuses them.
    are you suggesting that the English actually caused the potato famine ?
    I’m talking about the conquest of Ireland when the Bishop of Rome and his sky fairy gave us permission to do so.
    Ireland wasn't invaded by the English it was invaded by the French

    Normans who got invited to join a civil war by an Irish chief

    But then the Normans pretty much got stuck in to every civil conflict going in Europe at the time
    Irish folklore contains a huge amount of material based on emigration and oppression and it all has an anti-British undertone. There is a vast list of grievances, including but not limited to

    Henry VII and Elizabeth I (bringing in protestant settlers)
    Cromwell
    William of Orange
    Religious persecution (the penal laws)
    The potato famine
    Absentee English landlords
    The Black and Tans
    Partition
    The B Specials
    Discrimination against nationalists by the old Stormont regime before 1972

    No British monarch was ever invited to visit the Irish Republic, despite its close proximity to the UK, before the Queen went in 2011.

    It's hardly surprising that Ireland is taking an anti-British position on Brexit.


    so fucking what ?

    Central Europe has been through the worst of 2 world wars - murder, genocide, ethnic cleansing on an industrial scale, economic wipe out - and they still pick themselves up by their boot straps and get on with it

    Time for Ireland to let bygones be bygones
    I'd still give it a couple of centuries....
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    Dadge said:

    I'd be happy to take a little punt on Merkel not being leader at the next German election. Those who say the entry of the AfD into parliament has buggered German politics up are correct, but Merkel has to take a lot of responsibility for this by moving her party too far to the left and opening up the space for them. It's hard to see how new elections will produce a different result unless she goes. Options for govt are limited - there will be no govt that includes AfD or Linke, so there's only about 75% to find 50% from. If Merkel goes the CDU might gain some of their losses back, and the SPD and/or FDP might think about working with them again.

    That doesn't seem to make sense. Why would the SPD, a centre-left party, be more likely to want to work with a more right-wing CDU?
    The position that the SPD is taking is less to do with the position of the CDU (Most of the SPD was happy to go into coalition with them in 2005, before they started drifting to the left) and more to do with circumstances and personalities. They worry that their support is ebbing to the Greens and Linke because they're in coalition (compare what happened to the Lib Dems) but there is still the desire to do the right thing for the country, and if the CDU had a new leader it'd give them an excuse to renegotiate the grand coalition.
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