Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Do you want to bet on some Robert Mugabe related betting marke

1235»

Comments

  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    edited November 2017

    FF43 said:

    Apart from the implication that the DExEU is talking complete bollocks of course. In any case it's not just common tariffs. All agricultural produce has to be tested at the point of entry into the EU on current regulation. Of course if we stay in the Customs Union it really would be different.

    The EU can choose, if it wishes, to test agricultural products. That's up to them. Or they can choose to recognise UK standards, or to recognise Northern Irish produce only. Entirely up to them, it's not the UK being awkward. Quite the opposite, we have been asking for a deal since immediately after the referendum.

    This is the most Alice-in-Wonderland argument I've ever seen. The EU and the Irish Republic are demanding written guarantees from the UK that the EU and the Irish Republic won't impose a hard border. If that weren't bonkers enough, they're managing to make it even more bonkers by refusing to start the discussion which might make it easier for the EU and the Irish Republic not to impose a hard border.
    I half agree with you, funnily enough. If we reject the EU and the Customs Union and in doing so, reinvigorate a deprecated border and possibly put the Good Friday Agreement into jeopardy, we have every right to do so. We are being totally disingenuous by blaming the other side for the effective reappearance of the border. It was our decision to leave the EU and the Customs Union. Nevertheless the first point is the important one. Equally through our actions we are reigniting problems in Northern Ireland that have been quiescent. We are in our rights to reject the Irish proposals but the problems are still there.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    MaxPB said:

    Dadge said:

    Sandpit said:

    TonyE said:

    I know he’s an expert and he’s no Willie Walsh but still...

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/932947149960212480

    You think that we wouldn't come to an agreement that our standards for aerospace parts matches (via ISO) that of the EU?

    The EU nations are not going to cut their own balls off to please the commission.
    That’s pretty much every Boeing and every Airbus flying, plus Bombardier and many more. Are the EU so determined to make Brexit Hell for Britain, that they’re willing to completely undermine their reputation with every other country on Earth?
    Either the UK does a Norway, or the Airbus wings will move from Broughton to Toulouse.
    And all of the existing planes that have UK made components (basically every single plane in the world)?
    Flying will get more expensive.

    I know the situation is more extreme for aerospace than for most other industries, but other industries do have similar issues, and all will have to deal with the new border. Either the UK leaves the EU but pays to effectively stay in, or all sorts of businesses will drift overseas.
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kingbongo said:

    Shocked at lack of threads on our local elections in Denmark - I’ll be voting in my first overseas election and the tension is incredible - Slogans like ‘Frederiksberg where citizens are satisfied because everything works’ really demonstrate the level of mudslinging going on.

    While that is an excellent slogan, I cannot see any of our parties managing the same slogan as the good citizens of Fredriksberg.

    Sadly Brexit means that retirement to Fredriksberg is off the table. Pity, it sounds contented!
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our puqblic finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    I don't see people on the streets because the EMA and EBA relocated to Amsterdam and Paris.
    True. But there's no good Brexit news is there? It's going to be like this every day for a thousand days. Eventually it will take its toll.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280

    FF43 said:

    Apart from the implication that the DExEU is talking complete bollocks of course. In any case it's not just common tariffs. All agricultural produce has to be tested at the point of entry into the EU on current regulation. Of course if we stay in the Customs Union it really would be different.

    The EU can choose, if it wishes, to test agricultural products. That's up to them. Or they can choose to recognise UK standards, or to recognise Northern Irish produce only. Entirely up to them, it's not the UK being awkward. Quite the opposite, we have been asking for a deal since immediately after the referendum.

    This is the most Alice-in-Wonderland argument I've ever seen. The EU and the Irish Republic are demanding written guarantees from the UK that the EU and the Irish Republic won't impose a hard border. If that weren't bonkers enough, they're managing to make it even more bonkers by refusing to start the discussion which might make it easier for the EU and the Irish Republic not to impose a hard border.
    Quite. The EU will not discuss trade at all until we have agreed free trade with a single Member State. Because the most important thing to them is that the EU26 maintain their internal coherence and integrity. Or something.

    The logical conclusions are:
    (a) they are simply mad or have no idea what they want.
    (b) they don't want a deal with us under any circumstances and are looking for some/any excuse not to have one.
    (c) They really still believe that if they make this difficult enough we will change our mind.

    So far the vast bulk of the evidence points at (c) with hints of (a).
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    JonathanD said:
    let's hope it's not the same german academics who told us diesel engines didn't pollute
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,810
    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our public finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    Question: Does the WTO principle of non discrimination apply within FTA deals or only for base WTO rules? In other words, could an FTA provide legal cover for treating the Irish land border differently to the channel border, even without any formal customs union?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    FF43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our puqblic finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    I don't see people on the streets because the EMA and EBA relocated to Amsterdam and Paris.
    True. But there's no good Brexit news is there? It's going to be like this every day for a thousand days. Eventually it will take its toll.
    Even the fanatics are peppering their posts with qualifications nowadays, like "in the long term", when talking about the upside. Even if they are right (and the explanations as to how this upside might arise always seem rather hazy), Corbyn will probably be in power on the back of a counter-reaction to the short term downside by then, rendering future predictions of sunlight and high ground somewhat brave.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    Pro_Rata said:

    FF43 said:

    tpfkar said:

    FF43 said:

    I think the Ireland issue is a genuine shock. They thought they could ignore it.

    On balance, I expect us to stay in the Single Market and Custom Union, or negotiate to join if we do crash out without a deal, which we probably won't.

    I wish you were right. I can't see how the majority for staying in the customs union comes about though? That would be backpedalling even beyond the above for this Government, and was it only 76 MPs who voted along those lines last night. How does it happen?
    Give it time. There is a lot of unravelling of false assumptions to go through. Yesterday we had two major institutions moving away; a couple of banks announcing their moves, the EU clarifying that the FTA means no provision for financial services, which are our strong point. Today we have a Brexit-related deterioration in our public finances. It will be an endless stream of dreary news from now on. Eventually people will ask, why are we doing this, and look for an out. That out will be on the EU's terms.
    Question: Does the WTO principle of non discrimination apply within FTA deals or only for base WTO rules? In other words, could an FTA provide legal cover for treating the Irish land border differently to the channel border, even without any formal customs union?
    A good question. I don't know the answer. You need to offer better terms under a WTO endorsed preferential trade agreement than to your standard or MFN partners and the agreement has to cover substantially all trade.
This discussion has been closed.