Order books for Britain’s factories are at their strongest for almost 30 years as the weak pound and global growth bolsters demand for manufactured goods.
In a boost to the chancellor on the eve of the budget, the CBI’s monthly health check of industry showed a sharp improvement in both total and export order books.
I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.
Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.
So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
"The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook."
Undoubtedly the good citizens of Port Talbot were voting so that they could embrace cheap Chinese steel imports.
And American chemical chicken, plastic cheese, eggs that need to be refrigerated, and chocolate made from already stale milk.
Are the good people of Port Talbot going to be forced to buy plastic American cheese only from now on?!
No, I agree. My post was simply a rant against the s**t you have to eat whenever I visit America.
If anyone wants to know why Americans are the most obese nation on Earth, two good starting points:
1. The quantity of the food they eat. 2. The quality of the food they eat.
Order books for Britain’s factories are at their strongest for almost 30 years as the weak pound and global growth bolsters demand for manufactured goods.
In a boost to the chancellor on the eve of the budget, the CBI’s monthly health check of industry showed a sharp improvement in both total and export order books.
The latest Kantar Public poll also shows that Labour has the highest level of support among the general public (39% compared with 38% for the Conservatives). However, if we assume that turnout patterns are like the last two general elections, the Conservatives appear to currently have the upper hand (42%) ahead of Labour who are on 38%, the Lib Dems on 9% and UKIP on 5%
I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.
Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.
So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
"The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook."
Undoubtedly the good citizens of Port Talbot were voting so that they could embrace cheap Chinese steel imports.
And American chemical chicken, plastic cheese, eggs that need to be refrigerated, and chocolate made from already stale milk.
Are the good people of Port Talbot going to be forced to buy plastic American cheese only from now on?!
No, I agree. My post was simply a rant against the s**t you have to eat whenever I visit America.
If anyone wants to know why Americans are the most obese nation on Earth, two good starting points:
1. The quantity of the food they eat. 2. The quality of the food they eat.
There are also the perverse subsidies which make certain products ridiculously cheap, while healthier staples are fairly expensive. It is why Fructose Corn Syrup exists.
Whatever our positions on Brexit I am interested by what you are writing. As far as I can wee you are saying people voted for different reasons.
Some voted to be less protectionist and inward looking, while others voted to get the foreigners out which I think counts as protectionist and inward looking. Maybe some voted both to be less protectionist and inward looking and to get the foreigners out.
It's a funny old world, isn't it.
I think you are spot on with that. It is also why I think May is so wrong insisting on one particular type of Brexit. Clearly she cannot satisfy all strands of Leave and she should therefore choose the option which satisfies the largest number of people. As I have contended in the past the logic of this seems to me to be a Brexit which accommodates the views of Remain voters and a substantial number of Leave voters as opposed to one which only pleases a proportion of Leave voters and no Remain voters at all.
Whatever the supposed difficulties of Brexit, May's line seems to be making things massively more difficult and increase the likelihood of failure.
I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.
Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.
So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
"The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook."
Undoubtedly the good citizens of Port Talbot were voting so that they could embrace cheap Chinese steel imports.
And American chemical chicken, plastic cheese, eggs that need to be refrigerated, and chocolate made from already stale milk.
Are the good people of Port Talbot going to be forced to buy plastic American cheese only from now on?!
No, I agree. My post was simply a rant against the s**t you have to eat whenever I visit America.
What nonsense. The choice of decent food in the US has expanded rapidly over the past 5-10 years.
As with everything in the US, it is a place of two extremes. You get the utter garbage food and you get super high quality stuff.
Even if you are right that the wealthy somehow manage to come by non-plastic cheese, safe eggs, non-chemical chicken, and the like, such disparity and inequality doesn't sound like anything to be proud about?
The latest Kantar Public poll also shows that Labour has the highest level of support among the general public (39% compared with 38% for the Conservatives). However, if we assume that turnout patterns are like the last two general elections, the Conservatives appear to currently have the upper hand (42%) ahead of Labour who are on 38%, the Lib Dems on 9% and UKIP on 5%
Whatever our positions on Brexit I am interested by what you are writing. As far as I can wee you are saying people voted for different reasons.
Some voted to be less protectionist and inward looking, while others voted to get the foreigners out which I think counts as protectionist and inward looking. Maybe some voted both to be less protectionist and inward looking and to get the foreigners out.
It's a funny old world, isn't it.
I think you are spot on with that. It is also why I think May is so wrong insisting on one particular type of Brexit. Clearly she cannot satisfy all strands of Leave and she should therefore choose the option which satisfies the largest number of people. As I have contended in the past the logic of this seems to me to be a Brexit which accommodates the views of Remain voters and a substantial number of Leave voters as opposed to one which only pleases a proportion of Leave voters and no Remain voters at all.
Whatever the supposed difficulties of Brexit, May's line seems to be making things massively more difficult and increase the likelihood of failure.
I think you are misreading what May is attempting to do. She knows there are impossible trade offs, so she is testing the extent to which they can be avoided by playing the role of the immovable object. If it doesn't work, it's not her fault she was given an impossible task, and if it means people decide that Brexit isn't worth it, so much the better from her point of view.
Even if you are right that the wealthy somehow manage to come by non-plastic cheese, safe eggs, non-chemical chicken, and the like, such disparity and inequality doesn't sound like anything to be proud about?
That is a criticism of wider US politics / social situation (hence Trump and Bernie) and in regards to food, subsidies stuck in the past which have lead to perverse incentives creating unhealthy products like Fructose Corn Syrup.
But to say healthy high quality food isn't available in the US is nonsense, even outside places like California or hipster Oregon. I have some Vegan friends who are very particular over food and they happily road tripped across the US without having to comprise their high standards.
Also in the US there is a general education problem. Again two extremes, the best and brightest get fantastic educations at Ivy League colleges who have facilities and funding which puts all over universities in the world to shame. But the general level of high school education is absolutely piss poor.
Even if you are right that the wealthy somehow manage to come by non-plastic cheese, safe eggs, non-chemical chicken, and the like, such disparity and inequality doesn't sound like anything to be proud about?
That is a criticism of wider US politics / social situation (hence Trump and Bernie) and in regards to food, subsidies stuck in the past which have lead to perverse incentives creating unhealthy products like Fructose Corn Syrup.
But to say healthy high quality food isn't available in the US is nonsense, even outside places like California or hipster Oregon. I have some Vegan friends who are very particular over food and they happily road tripped across the US without having to comprise their high standards.
Also in the US there is a general education problem. Again two extremes, the best and brightest get fantastic educations at Ivy League colleges that put all over universities in the world to shame. But the general level of high school education is absolutely piss poor.
Good to hear. If it's possible to travel from east to west without having to subsist on burgers, fried chicken, fries and grits that must be good news.
Whatever our positions on Brexit I am interested by what you are writing. As far as I can wee you are saying people voted for different reasons.
Some voted to be less protectionist and inward looking, while others voted to get the foreigners out which I think counts as protectionist and inward looking. Maybe some voted both to be less protectionist and inward looking and to get the foreigners out.
It's a funny old world, isn't it.
I think you are spot on with that. It is also why I think May is so wrong insisting on one particular type of Brexit. Clearly she cannot satisfy all strands of Leave and she should therefore choose the option which satisfies the largest number of people. As I have contended in the past the logic of this seems to me to be a Brexit which accommodates the views of Remain voters and a substantial number of Leave voters as opposed to one which only pleases a proportion of Leave voters and no Remain voters at all.
Whatever the supposed difficulties of Brexit, May's line seems to be making things massively more difficult and increase the likelihood of failure.
I think you are misreading what May is attempting to do. She knows there are impossible trade offs, so she is testing the extent to which they can be avoided by playing the role of the immovable object. If it doesn't work, it's not her fault she was given an impossible task, and if it means people decide that Brexit isn't worth it, so much the better from her point of view.
I disagree entirely. On a whole host of issues May has screwed up. Most importantly she could have made clear that our final desired destination was an EFTA type relationship either inside or outside the EEA but accepting freedom of movement. Bear in mind I am answering this in the context of Topping's post on the clear dichotomy within the Leave movement. But she explicitly chose a route designed to alienate most Remain voters whilst not satisfying large numbers of Leave voters.
The task was not and is not impissible. She just chose a route that makes it far more difficult.
The latest Kantar Public poll also shows that Labour has the highest level of support among the general public (39% compared with 38% for the Conservatives). However, if we assume that turnout patterns are like the last two general elections, the Conservatives appear to currently have the upper hand (42%) ahead of Labour who are on 38%, the Lib Dems on 9% and UKIP on 5%
I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.
Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.
So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc which implies being open to the world and its citizenry. And...getting the foreigners out.
Have I got that right?
snip
Whatever our positions on Brexit I am interested by what you are writing. As far as I can wee you are saying people voted for different reasons.
Some voted to be less protectionist and inward looking, while others voted to get the foreigners out which I think counts as protectionist and inward looking. Maybe some voted both to be less protectionist and inward looking and to get the foreigners out.
It's a funny old world, isn't it.
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
Even if you are right that the wealthy somehow manage to come by non-plastic cheese, safe eggs, non-chemical chicken, and the like, such disparity and inequality doesn't sound like anything to be proud about?
That is a criticism of wider US politics / social situation (hence Trump and Bernie) and in regards to food, subsidies stuck in the past which have lead to perverse incentives creating unhealthy products like Fructose Corn Syrup.
But to say healthy high quality food isn't available in the US is nonsense, even outside places like California or hipster Oregon. I have some Vegan friends who are very particular over food and they happily road tripped across the US without having to comprise their high standards.
Also in the US there is a general education problem. Again two extremes, the best and brightest get fantastic educations at Ivy League colleges that put all over universities in the world to shame. But the general level of high school education is absolutely piss poor.
Good to hear. If it's possible to travel from east to west without having to subsist on burgers, fried chicken, fries and grits that must be good news.
I think a better criticism would be that you have to be far more diligent over checking what is in any processed food in the US. But Whole Foods ain't become so massive because the whole of the population of the US have Elvis sized crushes on burgers and fries that they never want to eat anything else.
I am sure OGH Jnr will be along at some point to tell us all about the high quality food and (more likely) plonk he consumes in the socialist republic of Californiastan.
I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.
Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist? The whole point of Brexit is to give us a more global outlook. The EU is by design inwards looking, it's a major reason people voted to leave.
Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.
So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc which implies being open to the world and its citizenry. And...getting the foreigners out.
Have I got that right?
snip
Whatever our positions on Brexit I am interested by what you are writing. As far as I can wee you are saying people voted for different reasons.
Some voted to be less protectionist and inward looking, while others voted to get the foreigners out which I think counts as protectionist and inward looking. Maybe some voted both to be less protectionist and inward looking and to get the foreigners out.
It's a funny old world, isn't it.
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
The latest Kantar Public poll also shows that Labour has the highest level of support among the general public (39% compared with 38% for the Conservatives). However, if we assume that turnout patterns are like the last two general elections, the Conservatives appear to currently have the upper hand (42%) ahead of Labour who are on 38%, the Lib Dems on 9% and UKIP on 5%
Which numbers does Kantar consider to be definitive.
IIRC, Kantar did rather well in June.
The LTV one.
Joel Williams says: Also note this poll has a 42-38 LTV-weighted lead for Tories over Labour but they are about even (38-39) in the population as a whole. LTV model worked fairly well in 2017GE (so we're keeping it for now) but probably not worth looking at this far out.
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
The thing is that without that small elite group, there would have been no referendum and no credible Leave campaign, so while they're numerically small, they are crucial to the political dynamics.
It seems to me that it is basically tied between Tories and Labour, despite May being useless, brexit and constant negative headlines for the government.
I believe somebody, who used to be a somebody, recently said that Labour should be miles ahead at this stage.
I have no idea. All I can see is that there are massive threats and risks with the path down which we are headed, exacerbated by the government still having no apparent coherent strategy, and that the basis for the promised upside from Brexit remains shaky at the very best. The trend of history over many decades is towards greater international collaboration, as technology and travel makes the world a smaller place, and seeking to isolate ourselves from this will likely put our country on the periphery of history as far as the 21st century is concerned, which is a tragedy given the central role we have been able to play over so many centuries past.
Please explain how removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc is isolationist?
Oh thank god! You've seen the breakdown tables in the appendices to the main EURef ballot paper.
So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc that was the motivating factor? Gives me great comfort that it was nothing to do with getting the foreigners out an' all that which some - even on here - said it was.
Did I say the word "only"? No. Don't put words in my mouth.
So it was removing ourselves from a protectionist bloc which implies being open to the world and its citizenry. And...getting the foreigners out.
Have I got that right?
snip
Whatever our positions on Brexit I am interested by what you are writing. As far as I can wee you are saying people voted for different reasons.
Some voted to be less protectionist and inward looking, while others voted to get the foreigners out which I think counts as protectionist and inward looking. Maybe some voted both to be less protectionist and inward looking and to get the foreigners out.
It's a funny old world, isn't it.
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
Therein lies the problem. The only scenario in which it might feasibly be possible to chart an alternative path towards success post-Brexit is one that would be rejected by a majority of the British people, and by a larger majority of voters who actually backed Leave in 2016.
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
The thing is that without that small elite group, there would have been no referendum and no credible Leave campaign, so while they're numerically small, they are crucial to the political dynamics.
That’s a fair comment.
I’d guess the tipping point was Douglas Carswell’s defection from Conservative to UKIP. Cameron was then losing his own MPs as well as just votes, and without offering the referendum the trickle of defections could have turned into an avalanche.
Whatever our positions on Brexit I am interested by what you are writing. As far as I can wee you are saying people voted for different reasons.
Some voted to be less prote it.
I think you are spot on with that. It is also why I think May is so wrong insisting on one particular type of Brexit. Clearly she cannot satisfy all strands of Leave and she should therefore choose the option which satisfies the largest number of people. As I have contended in the past the logic of this seems to me to be a Brexit which accommodates the views of Remain voters and a substantial number of Leave voters as opposed to one which only pleases a proportion of Leave voters and no Remain voters at all.
Whatever the supposed difficulties of Brexit, May's line seems to be making things massively more difficult and increase the likelihood of failure.
I think you are misreading what May is attempting to do. She knows there are impossible trade offs, so she is testing the extent to which they can be avoided by playing the role of the immovable object. If it doesn't work, it's not her fault she was given an impossible task, and if it means people decide that Brexit isn't worth it, so much the better from her point of view.
I disagree entirely. On a whole host of issues May has screwed up. Most importantly she could have made clear that our final desired destination was an EFTA type relationship either inside or outside the EEA but accepting freedom of movement. Bear in mind I am answering this in the context of Topping's post on the clear dichotomy within the Leave movement. But she explicitly chose a route designed to alienate most Remain voters whilst not satisfying large numbers of Leave voters.
The task was not and is not impissible. She just chose a route that makes it far more difficult.
As I mentioned yesterday, I think in many ways Dave stepping down was symbolic enough so as to make the remaining (small "r") members of the cabinet think that with Dave went all ideas of some kind of balance between remaining and leaving, leaving the field to the Leavers. So to speak.
It was in the mind of May that the general election would simply allow her to pursue a hard Brexit (the idea that she wanted a larger majority to silence the euroloons is erroneous I was told on very very good advice) which was an error, or a moment of madness, or some kind of political blindness, or all three.
None of which reflects well upon her but, as @TSE continues to remind us, she was never a star performer to begin with.
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
The thing is that without that small elite group, there would have been no referendum and no credible Leave campaign, so while they're numerically small, they are crucial to the political dynamics.
That’s a fair comment.
I’d guess the tipping point was Douglas Carswell’s defection from Conservative to UKIP. Cameron was then losing his own MPs as well as just votes, and without offering the referendum the trickle of defections could have turned into an avalanche.
Dave offered the referendum in January 2013, 18 months before Carswell and the traitorous pig dog defector defected.
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
The thing is that without that small elite group, there would have been no referendum and no credible Leave campaign, so while they're numerically small, they are crucial to the political dynamics.
That’s a fair comment.
I’d guess the tipping point was Douglas Carswell’s defection from Conservative to UKIP. Cameron was then losing his own MPs as well as just votes, and without offering the referendum the trickle of defections could have turned into an avalanche.
If you really want to knee TSE in the goolies, suggest that Mark Reckless defecting to UKIP was the straw that broke the camel's back - and caused Cameron to ensure that the Referendum would happen...
The latest Kantar Public poll also shows that Labour has the highest level of support among the general public (39% compared with 38% for the Conservatives). However, if we assume that turnout patterns are like the last two general elections, the Conservatives appear to currently have the upper hand (42%) ahead of Labour who are on 38%, the Lib Dems on 9% and UKIP on 5%
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
The thing is that without that small elite group, there would have been no referendum and no credible Leave campaign, so while they're numerically small, they are crucial to the political dynamics.
That’s a fair comment.
I’d guess the tipping point was Douglas Carswell’s defection from Conservative to UKIP. Cameron was then losing his own MPs as well as just votes, and without offering the referendum the trickle of defections could have turned into an avalanche.
If you really want to knee TSE in the goolies, suggest that Mark Reckless defecting to UKIP was the straw that broke the camel's back - and caused Cameron to ensure that the Referendum would happen...
So Reckless caused Brexit.
See my post at 4.42pm
Dave offered the referendum 18 months before TPD and Carswell defected.
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
The thing is that without that small elite group, there would have been no referendum and no credible Leave campaign, so while they're numerically small, they are crucial to the political dynamics.
That’s a fair comment.
I’d guess the tipping point was Douglas Carswell’s defection from Conservative to UKIP. Cameron was then losing his own MPs as well as just votes, and without offering the referendum the trickle of defections could have turned into an avalanche.
If you really want to knee TSE in the goolies, suggest that Mark Reckless defecting to UKIP was the straw that broke the camel's back - and caused Cameron to ensure that the Referendum would happen...
So Reckless caused Brexit.
See my post at 4.42pm
Dave offered the referendum 18 months before TPD and Carswell defected.
But there was no resiling from it, even though he got SFA from the EU in his "renegotiation".
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.
Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.
Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so.
+1
-1
This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.
Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.
Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so.
+1
I can't see the younger generations attitude to Europe changing as they grow old. If anything they will be more adamant as they will have had to ensure the economic distress through the best, productive years of their life.
It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.
Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.
Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so.
+1
-1
This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
They will care when the P45 is actually landing on their own desk.
It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.
Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.
Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so.
+1
I don't think opposition to Europe is that closely correlated to being right wing or something that becomes more appealing as you get older. I was happy to vote for Brexit in 1983 but it would have put me off voting Labour if they were still advocating it in 1997. Given just how slender the leave was, it is very easy to envisage a Britain where there is a large majority to rejoin quite soon.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
Hope the op and everything goes/went well Big G but that is a moronic comment on many levels.
Apart from the jobs themselves, and the multiplier effect on latte and underfloor heating sales, etc from those people being there, that these two agencies were headquartered in London was testament to some of London's soft power which is, imperceptibly, being whittled away.
Oh don't worry we'll still be able to sing Land of Hope and Glory at Twickenham but it is a diminution nevertheless.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
The thing is that without that small elite group, there would have been no referendum and no credible Leave campaign, so while they're numerically small, they are crucial to the political dynamics.
Possibly true. It has taken years of your John Redwoods on the fringe circuit to slowly change the Conservatives from the sanity of Ken Clarke to this madness.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
That is just the attitude that resulted in Brexit
And that's just the attitude that will result in London demanding far more control of the money that it earns, rather than waste it on people who hate it.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
That is just the attitude that resulted in Brexit
As the French ambassador put it, the Brexit electorate was made up of ideologues in and around London voting against the EU, and people in the rest of the country voting against London.
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
The thing is that without that small elite group, there would have been no referendum and no credible Leave campaign, so while they're numerically small, they are crucial to the political dynamics.
That’s a fair comment.
I’d guess the tipping point was Douglas Carswell’s defection from Conservative to UKIP. Cameron was then losing his own MPs as well as just votes, and without offering the referendum the trickle of defections could have turned into an avalanche.
If you really want to knee TSE in the goolies, suggest that Mark Reckless defecting to UKIP was the straw that broke the camel's back - and caused Cameron to ensure that the Referendum would happen...
So Reckless caused Brexit.
See my post at 4.42pm
Dave offered the referendum 18 months before TPD and Carswell defected.
I wonder if he still thinks he made the right call.
It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.
Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.
Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so.
+1
I can't see the younger generations attitude to Europe changing as they grow old. If anything they will be more adamant as they will have had to ensure the economic distress through the best, productive years of their life.
And maybe a whole new world of opportunities arises that does not result in the apocalypse situation favoured by the remainers
It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.
Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.
Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so.
+1
-1
This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
Making Tax Digital for VAT is currently set to come into force (i.e. require mandatory electronic VAT accounting and submission) three days after Brexit day. Have you thought this through?
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
That is just the attitude that resulted in Brexit
As the French ambassador put it, the Brexit electorate was made up of ideologues in and around London voting against the EU, and people in the rest of the country voting against London.
Not really. Almost all areas were within 60/40 and 40/60.
I wonder if he still thinks he made the right call.
Nope, his view is that you have to trust the wisdom of the British voters.
His view was the issue couldn't be left unresolved, and it would have been a lot lot messier, if it had happened without a referendum.
Picture this scenario, no referendum in 2016, Dave steps down in 2019, he's replaced by Boris who puts in the 2020 Tory manifesto to withdraw us from the EU, Boris/The Tories win a majority on 38% and implement that manifesto.
It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.
Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.
Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so.
+1
-1
This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
It's amazing how many people exist in a state of denial whereby European integration is some kind of future threat that we need to avoid, rather than something that has been the reality of their existence for most or all of their own lives.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
Seriously, the level of debate on both sides continues to hit new lows
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
The thing is that without that small elite group, there would have been no referendum and no credible Leave campaign, so while they're numerically small, they are crucial to the political dynamics.
That’s a fair comment.
I’d guess the tipping point was Douglas Carswell’s defection from Conservative to UKIP. Cameron was then losing his own MPs as well as just votes, and without offering the referendum the trickle of defections could have turned into an avalanche.
Dave offered the referendum in January 2013, 18 months before Carswell and the traitorous pig dog defector defected.
Yes the referendum was talked about previously, but once the MPs started leaving, followed by UKIP taking most votes in the 2014 EU elections, there was no getting out of it.
It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.
Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.
Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so.
+1
I don't think opposition to Europe is that closely correlated to being right wing or something that becomes more appealing as you get older. I was happy to vote for Brexit in 1983 but it would have put me off voting Labour if they were still advocating it in 1997. Given just how slender the leave was, it is very easy to envisage a Britain where there is a large majority to rejoin quite soon.
You may have a point but not before we have left and it would need a GE where it became a manifesto commitment by either labour or conservatives.
Indeed listening to the media since the cabinet approval of upto 40 billion there is a real anger growing about the EU demands and it is unlikely a large majority will emerge sometime soon
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
The thing is that without that small elite group, there would have been no referendum and no credible Leave campaign, so while they're numerically small, they are crucial to the political dynamics.
That’s a fair comment.
I’d guess the tipping point was Douglas Carswell’s defection from Conservative to UKIP. Cameron was then losing his own MPs as well as just votes, and without offering the referendum the trickle of defections could have turned into an avalanche.
Dave offered the referendum in January 2013, 18 months before Carswell and the traitorous pig dog defector defected.
Yes the referendum was talked about previously, but once the MPs started leaving, followed by UKIP taking most votes in the 2014 EU elections, there was no getting out of it.
Other way around, UKIP won the Euros, then Carswell and TPD defected.
Making Tax Digital for VAT is currently set to come into force (i.e. require mandatory electronic VAT accounting and submission) three days after Brexit day. Have you thought this through?
Who on earth does it by paper these days ?
I assume this post has been prompted by the fact it is the 21st so EC Sales are due
I wonder if he still thinks he made the right call.
Nope, his view is that you have to trust the wisdom of the British voters.
His view was the issue couldn't be left unresolved, and it would have been a lot lot messier, if it had happened without a referendum.
Picture this scenario, no referendum in 2016, Dave steps down in 2019, he's replaced by Boris who puts in the 2020 Tory manifesto to withdraw us from the EU, Boris/The Tories win a majority on 38% and implement that manifesto.
That would have been very messy.
Your defence of Dave is touching but I fear the verdict of history is likely to be that his spinelessness in not standing up to the ultras led to an unnecessary referendum which took what is shaping up to be the most damaging decision in modern British history.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
Hope the op and everything goes/went well Big G but that is a moronic comment on many levels.
Apart from the jobs themselves, and the multiplier effect on latte and underfloor heating sales, etc from those people being there, that these two agencies were headquartered in London was testament to some of London's soft power which is, imperceptibly, being whittled away.
Oh don't worry we'll still be able to sing Land of Hope and Glory at Twickenham but it is a diminution nevertheless.
Thanks for that and a week today I should be home.
My comments are a reflection of vox pops from the Welsh valleys and other phone ins that are furious with the EU and the detached attitude London has to the rest of the UK and the leave vote
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
That is just the attitude that resulted in Brexit
And that's just the attitude that will result in London demanding far more control of the money that it earns, rather than waste it on people who hate it.
With respect, that is just so divisive it is to be ignored.
The North already see that attitude but it is rare to see it expressed so openly
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
Hope the op and everything goes/went well Big G but that is a moronic comment on many levels.
Apart from the jobs themselves, and the multiplier effect on latte and underfloor heating sales, etc from those people being there, that these two agencies were headquartered in London was testament to some of London's soft power which is, imperceptibly, being whittled away.
Oh don't worry we'll still be able to sing Land of Hope and Glory at Twickenham but it is a diminution nevertheless.
Thanks for that and a week today I should be home.
My comments are a reflection of vox pops from the Welsh valleys and other phone ins that are furious with the EU and the detached attitude London has to the rest of the UK and the leave vote
Was it you (apologies if not) who said that people don't understand economics?
I don't wholly disagree, in general, so such fury is misplaced.
Nail -> head. Leave was won by a combination of those who disliked the EU because it was limiting to UK's global outlook, and those who disliked the EU because it was too open and letting immigrants in.
Ironically, Leave could not have won without those conflicting elements, but it also makes decisions now a tad more difficult.
Surely the first group is small? Minuscule probably. Basically, a few right-wing Tories and party members and some hedge fund guys.
The thing is that without that small elite group, there would have been no referendum and no credible Leave campaign, so while they're numerically small, they are crucial to the political dynamics.
That’s a fair comment.
I’d guess the tipping point was Douglas Carswell’s defection from Conservative to UKIP. Cameron was then losing his own MPs as well as just votes, and without offering the referendum the trickle of defections could have turned into an avalanche.
If you really want to knee TSE in the goolies, suggest that Mark Reckless defecting to UKIP was the straw that broke the camel's back - and caused Cameron to ensure that the Referendum would happen...
So Reckless caused Brexit.
See my post at 4.42pm
Dave offered the referendum 18 months before TPD and Carswell defected.
I wonder if he still thinks he made the right call.
LOL. Ask any Tory what was their favourite single moment of the 2015 election night, and it is almost certainly that TPD getting his arse handed to him on a plate being unsuccessful in the defence of his seat.
I was 3000 miles away and could hear the cheering!
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
That is just the attitude that resulted in Brexit
And that's just the attitude that will result in London demanding far more control of the money that it earns, rather than waste it on people who hate it.
With respect, that is just so divisive it is to be ignored.
The North already see that attitude but it is rare to see it expressed so openly
You apparently relish job losses for London but want its money. And you describe my attitude as divisive?
It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.
Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.
Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so.
Or...
As the young age, their opinions/politics stay broadly the same but become right wing relative to the opinions/politics of next generations....
Discuss.
That is probably nail-> head.
Certainly there is a change in perspective that most people experience when they transition from being single and commitment-free to having a job, family and mortgage. The latter possibility now receding through life as I said downthread.
But once past this stage, no-one I know has become more conservative in outlook, and some, once financially secure, have become more left-wing.
I suspect you are right that successive generations grow up taking for granted the social progress achieved by their predecessors, hence many grandparents appear more conservative as the policy window slowly becomes more progressive.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
Hope the op and everything goes/went well Big G but that is a moronic comment on many levels.
Apart from the jobs themselves, and the multiplier effect on latte and underfloor heating sales, etc from those people being there, that these two agencies were headquartered in London was testament to some of London's soft power which is, imperceptibly, being whittled away.
Oh don't worry we'll still be able to sing Land of Hope and Glory at Twickenham but it is a diminution nevertheless.
Thanks for that and a week today I should be home.
My comments are a reflection of vox pops from the Welsh valleys and other phone ins that are furious with the EU and the detached attitude London has to the rest of the UK and the leave vote
Was it you (apologies if not) who said that people don't understand economics?
I don't wholly disagree, in general, so such fury is misplaced.
No I do not recall saying that myself but I have heard it expressed and in some ways it is salient
Making Tax Digital for VAT is currently set to come into force (i.e. require mandatory electronic VAT accounting and submission) three days after Brexit day. Have you thought this through?
Who on earth does it by paper these days ?
I assume this post has been prompted by the fact it is the 21st so EC Sales are due
No-one does it by paper, but that's not the point. Currently 87% of returns are done by people using the government gateway to type in the small number of figures required for a VAT return. On 1st April 2019 that will no longer be allowed, you have to be running an HMRC-approved electronic accounting system with direct links to HMRC.
It's a fairly big change for lots of small businesses, and also for some large businesses:
Ordinarily this would be a significant but manageable transition, but I can't help feeling that both businesses and HMRC will have lots of other fires to put out just at that time.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
That is just the attitude that resulted in Brexit
And that's just the attitude that will result in London demanding far more control of the money that it earns, rather than waste it on people who hate it.
With respect, that is just so divisive it is to be ignored.
The North already see that attitude but it is rare to see it expressed so openly
You apparently relish job losses for London but want its money. And you describe my attitude as divisive?
I do not relish any job losses anywhere. Because I convey an opinion expressed through the media does not mean I endorse it but I can understand why people in the North have this anger towards London
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
That is just the attitude that resulted in Brexit
And that's just the attitude that will result in London demanding far more control of the money that it earns, rather than waste it on people who hate it.
With respect, that is just so divisive it is to be ignored.
The North already see that attitude but it is rare to see it expressed so openly
You apparently relish job losses for London but want its money. And you describe my attitude as divisive?
I do not relish any job losses anywhere. Because I convey an opinion expressed through the media does not mean I endorse it but I can understand why people in the North have this anger towards London
Such people in "the North" seem to want to sponge off people they despise. But you seem to think it unreasonable that the people they despise might want to do something about that if they persist in that attitude.
LOL. Ask any Tory what was their favourite single moment of the 2015 election night, and it is almost certainly that TPD getting his arse handed to him on a plate being unsuccessful in the defence of his seat.
I was 3000 miles away and could hear the cheering!
I'll let you into a little secret, I knew a few people running the Tory campaign in 2015.
End of April 2015, I met them in person in a bar of a very nice hotel in central London, this is what they said to me
Them: We're pulling major resources out of Rochester & Strood.
Me: Fuck, that [moderated] c**t's going to win.
Them: No, we're home and hosed, his fat arse is going to be kicked.
Me: Fucking Yes! Yes! Yes!
Then I could feel the eyes of the concierge burning on me with disgust at my language, I may have been transformed into Brian Blessed in my excitement.
I then spent the rest of the campaign worried about Tory hubris and making myself ill over it.
Making Tax Digital for VAT is currently set to come into force (i.e. require mandatory electronic VAT accounting and submission) three days after Brexit day. Have you thought this through?
Who on earth does it by paper these days ?
I assume this post has been prompted by the fact it is the 21st so EC Sales are due
No-one does it by paper, but that's not the point. Currently 87% of returns are done by people using the government gateway to type in the small number of figures required for a VAT return. On 1st April 2019 that will no longer be allowed, you have to be running an HMRC-approved electronic accounting system with direct links to HMRC.
It's a fairly big change for lots of small businesses, and also for some large businesses:
Ordinarily this would be a significant but manageable transition, but I can't help feeling that both businesses and HMRC will have lots of other fires to put out just at that time.
Oh Christ.
Well Thanks Rich.
We do ours manually here as we have ALOT of 'odd' EU related stuff (Selling goods but from France to Germany with them never actually touching our shores etc). This looks like a change that will affect me personally. Guess I have plenty of time to plan now - hadn't seen this publicised before...
It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.
Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.
Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so.
+1
I don't think opposition to Europe is that closely correlated to being right wing or something that becomes more appealing as you get older. I was happy to vote for Brexit in 1983 but it would have put me off voting Labour if they were still advocating it in 1997. Given just how slender the leave was, it is very easy to envisage a Britain where there is a large majority to rejoin quite soon.
You may have a point but not before we have left and it would need a GE where it became a manifesto commitment by either labour or conservatives.
Indeed listening to the media since the cabinet approval of upto 40 billion there is a real anger growing about the EU demands and it is unlikely a large majority will emerge sometime soon
If the parties' opinion poll ratings are roughly where they are now in a few years time, both of them will be tempted by taking a punt on rejoining. After all, if neither looks likely to win outright with their current offering they have little to lose by changing it. It sounds far from unlikely.
And as to the bill, that is a story that you can frame to suit your prejudices. You might blame the money grubbing bureaucrats. Or you might blame the government who put themselves in the position where they had no choice but to concede.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
That is just the attitude that resulted in Brexit
And that's just the attitude that will result in London demanding far more control of the money that it earns, rather than waste it on people who hate it.
With respect, that is just so divisive it is to be ignored.
The North already see that attitude but it is rare to see it expressed so openly
You apparently relish job losses for London but want its money. And you describe my attitude as divisive?
I do not relish any job losses anywhere. Because I convey an opinion expressed through the media does not mean I endorse it but I can understand why people in the North have this anger towards London
Such people in "the North" seem to want to sponge off people they despise. But you seem to think it unreasonable that the people they despise might want to do something about that if they persist in that attitude.
No the North and other regions want their fair share of investment - to suggest Northern people sponge off people they despise is so absurd it is not worth commenting on further
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
That is just the attitude that resulted in Brexit
And that's just the attitude that will result in London demanding far more control of the money that it earns, rather than waste it on people who hate it.
With respect, that is just so divisive it is to be ignored.
The North already see that attitude but it is rare to see it expressed so openly
You apparently relish job losses for London but want its money. And you describe my attitude as divisive?
I do not relish any job losses anywhere. Because I convey an opinion expressed through the media does not mean I endorse it but I can understand why people in the North have this anger towards London
Such people in "the North" seem to want to sponge off people they despise. But you seem to think it unreasonable that the people they despise might want to do something about that if they persist in that attitude.
No the North and other regions want their fair share of investment - to suggest Northern people sponge off people they despise is so absurd it is not worth commenting on further
Dyed in the wool southerner here, but I absolutely agree.
It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.
Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.
Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so.
+1
I don't think opposition to Europe is that closely correlated to being right wing or something that becomes more appealing as you get older. I was happy to vote for Brexit in 1983 but it would have put me off voting Labour if they were still advocating it in 1997. Given just how slender the leave was, it is very easy to envisage a Britain where there is a large majority to rejoin quite soon.
You may have a point but not before we have left and it would need a GE where it became a manifesto commitment by either labour or conservatives.
Indeed listening to the media since the cabinet approval of upto 40 billion there is a real anger growing about the EU demands and it is unlikely a large majority will emerge sometime soon
If the parties' opinion poll ratings are roughly where they are now in a few years time, both of them will be tempted by taking a punt on rejoining. After all, if neither looks likely to win outright with their current offering they have little to lose by changing it. It sounds far from unlikely.
And as to the bill, that is a story that you can frame to suit your prejudices. You might blame the money grubbing bureaucrats. Or you might blame the government who put themselves in the position where they had no choice but to concede.
I'd argue that both sides would have a lot to lose from doing a U-turn on brexit.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
That is just the attitude that resulted in Brexit
And that's just the attitude that will result in London demanding far more control of the money that it earns, rather than waste it on people who hate it.
With respect, that is just so divisive it is to be ignored.
The North already see that attitude but it is rare to see it expressed so openly
You apparently relish job losses for London but want its money. And you describe my attitude as divisive?
I do not relish any job losses anywhere. Because I convey an opinion expressed through the media does not mean I endorse it but I can understand why people in the North have this anger towards London
Such people in "the North" seem to want to sponge off people they despise. But you seem to think it unreasonable that the people they despise might want to do something about that if they persist in that attitude.
No the North and other regions want their fair share of investment - to suggest Northern people sponge off people they despise is so absurd it is not worth commenting on further
London hoses the North with subsidies. That's exactly what you are describing.
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
That is just the attitude that resulted in Brexit
And that's just the attitude that will result in London demanding far more control of the money that it earns, rather than waste it on people who hate it.
With respect, that is just so divisive it is to be ignored.
The North already see that attitude but it is rare to see it expressed so openly
You apparently relish job losses for London but want its money. And you describe my attitude as divisive?
I do not relish any job losses anywhere. Because I convey an opinion expressed through the media does not mean I endorse it but I can understand why people in the North have this anger towards London
Such people in "the North" seem to want to sponge off people they despise. But you seem to think it unreasonable that the people they despise might want to do something about that if they persist in that attitude.
Personally I'm very grateful for people living and generating taxes in our expensive and cramped capital so I don't have to
The London media obviously bemoaning the loss of 1,000 jobs but I genuinely think that ordinary people outside London and the bubble couldn't care less.
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
I see. So the point has been reached where a thousand London job losses are of no interest to those outside the capital.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
That is just the attitude that resulted in Brexit
And that's just the attitude that will result in London demanding far more control of the money that it earns, rather than waste it on people who hate it.
With respect, that is just so divisive it is to be ignored.
The North already see that attitude but it is rare to see it expressed so openly
You apparently relish job losses for London but want its money. And you describe my attitude as divisive?
I do not relish any job losses anywhere. Because I convey an opinion expressed through the media does not mean I endorse it but I can understand why people in the North have this anger towards London
Such people in "the North" seem to want to sponge off people they despise. But you seem to think it unreasonable that the people they despise might want to do something about that if they persist in that attitude.
No the North and other regions want their fair share of investment - to suggest Northern people sponge off people they despise is so absurd it is not worth commenting on further
Magical Free Investment, you mean? 'Cos consideration of the tax base somewhat undermines the logic of your comment.
LOL. Ask any Tory what was their favourite single moment of the 2015 election night, and it is almost certainly that TPD getting his arse handed to him on a plate being unsuccessful in the defence of his seat.
I was 3000 miles away and could hear the cheering!
I'll let you into a little secret, I knew a few people running the Tory campaign in 2015.
End of April 2015, I met them in person in a bar of a very nice hotel in central London, this is what they said to me
Them: We're pulling major resources out of Rochester & Strood.
Me: Fuck, that [moderated] c**t's going to win.
Them: No, we're home and hosed, his fat arse is going to be kicked.
Me: Fucking Yes! Yes! Yes!
Then I could feel the eyes of the concierge burning on me with disgust at my language, I may have been transformed into Brian Blessed in my excitement.
I then spent the rest of the campaign worried about Tory hubris and making myself ill over it.
That's how much of an effect TPD had on me.
Mmmm, I can now see why the Tories divisions on Europe are so bitter......
Comments
In a boost to the chancellor on the eve of the budget, the CBI’s monthly health check of industry showed a sharp improvement in both total and export order books.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/21/uk-manufacturing-order-books-strongest-level-since-1988-cbi-says
Because and despite Brexit....
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/933003628876632064
1. The quantity of the food they eat.
2. The quality of the food they eat.
https://order-order.com/2017/11/21/siemens-cut-european-jobs-expand-uk/
https://test.kantar.com/public-opinion/economy/2017/british-households-under-pressure-and-gloomier-about-economy/
Story goes on as follows.
'Policing chiefs say confidence in the criminal justice system has been rocked by the alleged manipulation of data at a forensics laboratory that has led to the review of 10,000 cases across England and Wales.
Police said so far two cases involving road deaths had been referred to the court of appeal. About 50 cases of drug-driving have been discontinued.'
That’s quite frankly, dreadful.
Whatever the supposed difficulties of Brexit, May's line seems to be making things massively more difficult and increase the likelihood of failure.
But to say healthy high quality food isn't available in the US is nonsense, even outside places like California or hipster Oregon. I have some Vegan friends who are very particular over food and they happily road tripped across the US without having to comprise their high standards.
Also in the US there is a general education problem. Again two extremes, the best and brightest get fantastic educations at Ivy League colleges who have facilities and funding which puts all over universities in the world to shame. But the general level of high school education is absolutely piss poor.
Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.
Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
The task was not and is not impissible. She just chose a route that makes it far more difficult.
IIRC, Kantar did rather well in June.
I am sure OGH Jnr will be along at some point to tell us all about the high quality food and (more likely) plonk he consumes in the socialist republic of Californiastan.
Joel Williams says: Also note this poll has a 42-38 LTV-weighted lead for Tories over Labour but they are about even (38-39) in the population as a whole. LTV model worked fairly well in 2017GE (so we're keeping it for now) but probably not worth looking at this far out.
I believe somebody, who used to be a somebody, recently said that Labour should be miles ahead at this stage.
I’d guess the tipping point was Douglas Carswell’s defection from Conservative to UKIP. Cameron was then losing his own MPs as well as just votes, and without offering the referendum the trickle of defections could have turned into an avalanche.
It was in the mind of May that the general election would simply allow her to pursue a hard Brexit (the idea that she wanted a larger majority to silence the euroloons is erroneous I was told on very very good advice) which was an error, or a moment of madness, or some kind of political blindness, or all three.
None of which reflects well upon her but, as @TSE continues to remind us, she was never a star performer to begin with.
So Reckless caused Brexit.
Take Darlington. 19401 votes would have been plenty in 2015 to win.
Dave offered the referendum 18 months before TPD and Carswell defected.
"I can't say the word c**t but he [Mark Reckless]'s a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."
London has created a media and elite narrative always focussing on London as if it represents the Country.
This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
Remind me why London should continually lavish funds on such a surly bunch.
Who would have thought that two or three months ago
Apart from the jobs themselves, and the multiplier effect on latte and underfloor heating sales, etc from those people being there, that these two agencies were headquartered in London was testament to some of London's soft power which is, imperceptibly, being whittled away.
Oh don't worry we'll still be able to sing Land of Hope and Glory at Twickenham but it is a diminution nevertheless.
Making Tax Digital for VAT is currently set to come into force (i.e. require mandatory electronic VAT accounting and submission) three days after Brexit day. Have you thought this through?
As the young age, their opinions/politics stay broadly the same but become right wing relative to the opinions/politics of next generations....
Discuss.
His view was the issue couldn't be left unresolved, and it would have been a lot lot messier, if it had happened without a referendum.
Picture this scenario, no referendum in 2016, Dave steps down in 2019, he's replaced by Boris who puts in the 2020 Tory manifesto to withdraw us from the EU, Boris/The Tories win a majority on 38% and implement that manifesto.
That would have been very messy.
Indeed listening to the media since the cabinet approval of upto 40 billion there is a real anger growing about the EU demands and it is unlikely a large majority will emerge sometime soon
Silently, I called him a rude word or two.
I assume this post has been prompted by the fact it is the 21st so EC Sales are due
My comments are a reflection of vox pops from the Welsh valleys and other phone ins that are furious with the EU and the detached attitude London has to the rest of the UK and the leave vote
The North already see that attitude but it is rare to see it expressed so openly
I don't wholly disagree, in general, so such fury is misplaced.
getting his arse handed to him on a platebeing unsuccessful in the defence of his seat.I was 3000 miles away and could hear the cheering!
Certainly there is a change in perspective that most people experience when they transition from being single and commitment-free to having a job, family and mortgage. The latter possibility now receding through life as I said downthread.
But once past this stage, no-one I know has become more conservative in outlook, and some, once financially secure, have become more left-wing.
I suspect you are right that successive generations grow up taking for granted the social progress achieved by their predecessors, hence many grandparents appear more conservative as the policy window slowly becomes more progressive.
It's a fairly big change for lots of small businesses, and also for some large businesses:
https://www.tax.org.uk/policy-technical/technical-news/making-tax-digital-vat-main-issues-consideration
Ordinarily this would be a significant but manageable transition, but I can't help feeling that both businesses and HMRC will have lots of other fires to put out just at that time.
End of April 2015, I met them in person in a bar of a very nice hotel in central London, this is what they said to me
Them: We're pulling major resources out of Rochester & Strood.
Me: Fuck, that [moderated] c**t's going to win.
Them: No, we're home and hosed, his fat arse is going to be kicked.
Me: Fucking Yes! Yes! Yes!
Then I could feel the eyes of the concierge burning on me with disgust at my language, I may have been transformed into Brian Blessed in my excitement.
I then spent the rest of the campaign worried about Tory hubris and making myself ill over it.
That's how much of an effect TPD had on me.
Well Thanks Rich.
We do ours manually here as we have ALOT of 'odd' EU related stuff (Selling goods but from France to Germany with them never actually touching our shores etc). This looks like a change that will affect me personally. Guess I have plenty of time to plan now - hadn't seen this publicised before...
And as to the bill, that is a story that you can frame to suit your prejudices. You might blame the money grubbing bureaucrats. Or you might blame the government who put themselves in the position where they had no choice but to concede.