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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Deal or no deal

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  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I don't get the hatred for the notch, it is fine.

    Mind you I didn't get the hate for the lack of 3.5mm jack.

    1) I use wireless headphones beforehand

    2) They provide you with a free adaptor so you can use your old 3.5mm jack headphones

    The adaptor goes into the lightning port, presumably? I tend to charge my phone and listen to wired headphones at the same time.

    It is an entirely unnecessary change. And, I suspect, one they'll go back on eventually.
    It does, but you can buy things like this that do both at the same time

    http://tinyurl.com/HurrahForApple
    Apples motto should be “there’s a (proprietary) dongle for that”.
    If you want to use fast charging on the new iPhone you have to buy a separate charger for £50 *and* a separate cable for £25.
    Wait, the charger doesn't come with the correct cable? That's mad. I thought it was ridiculous that the fast charger didn't come with the £1100 phone, but that really takes the biscuit.
    When wireless charging first came in - which must be about 2 years ago at least - I got a Samsung fast charger for half price (about $25) and it came with a cable. Still works on the new Galaxys.

    But nobody knows how to gouge users more than Apple - and unlike Samsung they don't actually make any of what they sell.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Fucking hell, it's 59 and 39 here for the charger and a two metre cable. That's almost 100 francs for a bloody charger that I got for free with my XZ premium.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2017
    Pong said:

    O/T, but, from the Guartdian https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/21/forensics-data-manipulation-may-have-affected-10000-cases
    Story goes on as follows.
    'Policing chiefs say confidence in the criminal justice system has been rocked by the alleged manipulation of data at a forensics laboratory that has led to the review of 10,000 cases across England and Wales.

    Police said so far two cases involving road deaths had been referred to the court of appeal. About 50 cases of drug-driving have been discontinued.'

    That’s quite frankly, dreadful.

    Potentially awful.

    Non-criminal family cases, too.

    This is Randox's response;

    http://www.randox.com/rts-whistleblower/
    “We are now well-advanced in developing a fool-proof testing system which would enhance the security of our operations in the future, to provide the necessary level of confidence.”

    I find that really cynical PR.

    "a fool-proof testing system"

    Our legal system, presumably, considered your previous testing system to be "fool-proof" when it clearly it wasn't. Such "fool-proofing" is probably not possible. Why market it as such?

    How about some humility? And an apology.

    Grr
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    MaxPB said:

    Fucking hell, it's 59 and 39 here for the charger and a two metre cable. That's almost 100 francs for a bloody charger that I got for free with my XZ premium.

    I think one of the reasons they got rid of the jack is to stop the accessories that use it for free. Now they have to pay a license fee to Apple to use the proprietary connector.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    I for one would rather be having a bitter and vengeful argument about Brexit than enduring endless conversations about here-today-gone-tomorrow technology that none of us need.

    I'm currently putting the finishing touches on a thread that discusses both a new Scottish Independence referendum and AV.
    You know what makes a perfect evening? A nice pineapple pizza and a good AV thread. :smiley:
    You forgot Hull City winning at Millwall.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fucking hell, it's 59 and 39 here for the charger and a two metre cable. That's almost 100 francs for a bloody charger that I got for free with my XZ premium.

    I think one of the reasons they got rid of the jack is to stop the accessories that use it for free. Now they have to pay a license fee to Apple to use the proprietary connector.
    And the correct answer is....
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fucking hell, it's 59 and 39 here for the charger and a two metre cable. That's almost 100 francs for a bloody charger that I got for free with my XZ premium.

    I think one of the reasons they got rid of the jack is to stop the accessories that use it for free. Now they have to pay a license fee to Apple to use the proprietary connector.
    Yes, that's probably the reason. Oddly Apple opted for QI wireless rather than trying to force their own proprietary standard which they could then force companies to licence.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,277
    edited November 2017

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    The person I think should be poster of the year is Nick Palmer.

    He contributes intelligent well thought through arguments and is consistantly fair.

    And this coming from a conservative member but someone who appreciates a well made argument
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Tim_B said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    US TV host Charlie Rose has been fired by CBS News following sexual harassment allegations.

    Stephen Colbert won’t be writing a pile of jokes about that one!
    Only if he uses it as the segway to 10 trump jokes.
    Ha, maybe. Another US story that seems to have passed most people by is the DOJ investigation of the AT&T/TimeWarner merger. Which has nothing at all to do with grandstanding politicians wanting to grill TW execs about harassment and casting couch culture, and certainly, absolutely, definitely has nothing whatsoever to do with the president’s lack of love for TW-owned CNN.
    Total coincidence!
    Time Warner is one of the largest cable TV and internet companies in the US. AT&T is the largest satellite Pay TV broadcaster in the US, (it owns DirecTV), and one of the largest internet companies in the US. 4 out of 5 households here pay for cable/satellite. There is ample room for monopolistic concern.

    The CNN thing seems odd though, on the face of it. It may have poor ratings these days, but it is a cash cow of epic proportions. Maybe having a dominant cable/satellite supplier own one of the major news organisations it supplies tips the balance.
    TW split off the cable business a couple of years ago. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Warner_Cable

    TW that’s left are purely content producers, AT&T are platform and infrastructure owners, so it’s very much a vertical acquisition and not quite as bad as might first have been thought. Still no good for consumers though.
    How is an investigation especially different to the investigation(s) into a merger between News Corp and Sky here?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,829

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    I want to go back to 1850.
  • Options
    Sadly, Rodney Bewes is with us no more.
  • Options
    @Big_G_NorthWales You make some good points - Nick is much more laid back and calm when making his arguments than I could ever be.

    @Sean_F Like JRM then!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,183

    Sadly, Rodney Bewes is with us no more.

    On 22nd November 1963, two giants of literature - Aldous Huxley and C. S. Lewis - died.

    The newspapers he following day were full of some unimportant political event or other and it is actually quite hard to find a meaningful obituary of either author in consequence.

    In light of Mugabe's defenestration I think the sad loss of A Likely Lad will be overshadowed by the much more cheerful loss of the Unlovely Lad. Which is a shame, but there we are.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    The person I think should be poster of the year is Nick Palmer.

    He contributes intelligent well thought through arguments and is consistantly fair.

    And this coming from a conservative member but someone who appreciates a well made argument
    +1 for Nick. Like you, I disagree with almost everything he says politically, but he’s always polite and engages with an argument - and has some amazing insight from his time as an MP. A huge asset to the site.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    RobD said:
    Thing is it sort of works.

    Cut a wire coat hanger in two. Hold the ends loosely in each fist so they are sticking out in front of your body direction and walk over a water pipe ( try a known one to test it) and I’ve seen them curve inwards and cross as you cross the line of the pipe. Must be electrical or resistance or something. But it’s real.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    The person I think should be poster of the year is Nick Palmer.

    He contributes intelligent well thought through arguments and is consistantly fair.

    And this coming from a conservative member but someone who appreciates a well made argument
    +1 for Nick. Like you, I disagree with almost everything he says politically, but he’s always polite and engages with an argument - and has some amazing insight from his time as an MP. A huge asset to the site.
    If he was standing in Broxtowe again and I had a vote I would vote for him
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited November 2017
    RobD said:

    I for one would rather be having a bitter and vengeful argument about Brexit than enduring endless conversations about here-today-gone-tomorrow technology that none of us need.

    I'm currently putting the finishing touches on a thread that discusses both a new Scottish Independence referendum and AV.
    You know what makes a perfect evening? A nice pineapple pizza and a good AV thread. :smiley:
    With Radiohead on your wireless Apple
    earphones??
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    The person I think should be poster of the year is Nick Palmer.

    He contributes intelligent well thought through arguments and is consistantly fair.

    And this coming from a conservative member but someone who appreciates a well made argument
    +1 for Nick. Like you, I disagree with almost everything he says politically, but he’s always polite and engages with an argument - and has some amazing insight from his time as an MP. A huge asset to the site.
    If he was standing in Broxtowe again and I had a vote I would vote for him
    Against Anna Sourpuss, certainly!
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,277
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    The person I think should be poster of the year is Nick Palmer.

    He contributes intelligent well thought through arguments and is consistantly fair.

    And this coming from a conservative member but someone who appreciates a well made argument
    +1 for Nick. Like you, I disagree with almost everything he says politically, but he’s always polite and engages with an argument - and has some amazing insight from his time as an MP. A huge asset to the site.
    If he was standing in Broxtowe again and I had a vote I would vote for him
    Against Anna Sourpuss, certainly!
    Does come into mind
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    welshowl said:

    RobD said:
    Thing is it sort of works.

    Cut a wire coat hanger in two. Hold the ends loosely in each fist so they are sticking out in front of your body direction and walk over a water pipe ( try a known one to test it) and I’ve seen them curve inwards and cross as you cross the line of the pipe. Must be electrical or resistance or something. But it’s real.
    Well if you wanted to test it, you'd need to try it _without_ knowing if there's a pipe. Otherwise you'll just get the ouija board effect
  • Options
    I'm struggling to locate these markets on Ladbrokes' website - can anyone help please?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,829

    @Big_G_NorthWales You make some good points - Nick is much more laid back and calm when making his arguments than I could ever be.

    @Sean_F Like JRM then!

    I think he'd prefer 1450.
  • Options

    I'm struggling to locate these markets on Ladbrokes' website - can anyone help please?

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/eu-specials/225327493/
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    RobD said:
    Thing is it sort of works.

    Cut a wire coat hanger in two. Hold the ends loosely in each fist so they are sticking out in front of your body direction and walk over a water pipe ( try a known one to test it) and I’ve seen them curve inwards and cross as you cross the line of the pipe. Must be electrical or resistance or something. But it’s real.
    Well if you wanted to test it, you'd need to try it _without_ knowing if there's a pipe. Otherwise you'll just get the ouija board effect
    See what you mean.

    But it’s an interesting effect.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,951
    Ignore Mr Meeks. It is vital you buy as much tech as possible.

    Nothing beats the feeling of being in a shop and seeing people buy products that you helped develop.

    In fact, some of you may have some of my code in your homes, and possibly have some tech developed by Mrs J in your pockets.

    WE OWN YOU !

    Mwhahahahaha
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,287

    The latest Kantar Public poll also shows that Labour has the highest level of support among the general public (39% compared with 38% for the Conservatives). However, if we assume that turnout patterns are like the last two general elections, the Conservatives appear to currently have the upper hand (42%) ahead of Labour who are on 38%, the Lib Dems on 9% and UKIP on 5%

    https://test.kantar.com/public-opinion/economy/2017/british-households-under-pressure-and-gloomier-about-economy/

    But surely turnout pattern was massively different in 2017 compared to 2015.

    So which has Kantar used? An average of the two?
  • Options

    I'm struggling to locate these markets on Ladbrokes' website - can anyone help please?

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/eu-specials/225327493/
    Many thanks TSE ... I've loaded onto your 6/4 shot.
  • Options
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    RobD said:
    Thing is it sort of works.

    Cut a wire coat hanger in two. Hold the ends loosely in each fist so they are sticking out in front of your body direction and walk over a water pipe ( try a known one to test it) and I’ve seen them curve inwards and cross as you cross the line of the pipe. Must be electrical or resistance or something. But it’s real.
    Well if you wanted to test it, you'd need to try it _without_ knowing if there's a pipe. Otherwise you'll just get the ouija board effect
    See what you mean.

    But it’s an interesting effect.
    Archaeologists regularly use it, not to identify ancient remains but to pinpoint modern services so they don't end up chopping through an electricity cable or water pipe. No idea how it works but it does.
  • Options

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    Fantastic because you agree with them, and think they sock it to the Brexiteers.

    A true test of PoTY is picking someone objectively, who adds value and makes you think. I'd pick Southam Observer, Cyclefree, WilliamGlenn or Robert Smithson.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    welshowl said:

    RobD said:

    I for one would rather be having a bitter and vengeful argument about Brexit than enduring endless conversations about here-today-gone-tomorrow technology that none of us need.

    I'm currently putting the finishing touches on a thread that discusses both a new Scottish Independence referendum and AV.
    You know what makes a perfect evening? A nice pineapple pizza and a good AV thread. :smiley:
    With Radiohead on your wireless Apple
    earphones??
    Could life get any better?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    Ignore Mr Meeks. It is vital you buy as much tech as possible.

    Nothing beats the feeling of being in a shop and seeing people buy products that you helped develop.

    In fact, some of you may have some of my code in your homes, and possibly have some tech developed by Mrs J in your pockets.

    WE OWN YOU !

    Mwhahahahaha

    I assume you have some order 66-like piece of code buried in there? :D
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2017
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    O/T, but, from the Guartdian https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/nov/21/forensics-data-manipulation-may-have-affected-10000-cases
    Story goes on as follows.
    'Policing chiefs say confidence in the criminal justice system has been rocked by the alleged manipulation of data at a forensics laboratory that has led to the review of 10,000 cases across England and Wales.

    Police said so far two cases involving road deaths had been referred to the court of appeal. About 50 cases of drug-driving have been discontinued.'

    That’s quite frankly, dreadful.

    Potentially awful.

    Non-criminal family cases, too.

    This is Randox's response;

    http://www.randox.com/rts-whistleblower/
    “We are now well-advanced in developing a fool-proof testing system which would enhance the security of our operations in the future, to provide the necessary level of confidence.”

    I find that really cynical PR.

    "a fool-proof testing system"

    Our legal system, presumably, considered your previous testing system to be "fool-proof" when it clearly it wasn't. Such "fool-proofing" is probably not possible. Why market it as such?

    How about some humility? And an apology.

    Grr
    I just googled "Randox"

    Above all the results, a prominent ad "Miscarriage of Justice? - You may be entitled to Appeal your conviction with substantial compensation"

    www.randoxclaims.co.uk

    This could well be bloody expensive.

    Freeze the company/directors assets, now. Protect the taxpayer.

    What is the government waiting for?
  • Options

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    Fantastic because you agree with them, and think they sock it to the Brexiteers.

    A true test of PoTY is picking someone objectively, who adds value and makes you think. I'd pick Southam Observer, Cyclefree, WilliamGlenn or Robert Smithson.
    I am in the Nick Palmer camp. One of the most dignified posters on the site.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales You make some good points - Nick is much more laid back and calm when making his arguments than I could ever be.

    @Sean_F Like JRM then!

    I think he'd prefer 1450.
    1415.
  • Options
    stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    The protection racket that is the EU will not allow a deal. It is quite amazing that anyone was in favour of the UK belonging to the Mafiosi (no one resigns from the Organisation) that is the European Union.
  • Options
    MikeL said:

    The latest Kantar Public poll also shows that Labour has the highest level of support among the general public (39% compared with 38% for the Conservatives). However, if we assume that turnout patterns are like the last two general elections, the Conservatives appear to currently have the upper hand (42%) ahead of Labour who are on 38%, the Lib Dems on 9% and UKIP on 5%

    https://test.kantar.com/public-opinion/economy/2017/british-households-under-pressure-and-gloomier-about-economy/

    But surely turnout pattern was massively different in 2017 compared to 2015.

    So which has Kantar used? An average of the two?
    Closer to their 2017 methodology.

    Their final poll at the general election had the Tories on 43% and Labour on 38%, which was pretty good when compared to the final result.
  • Options
    SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 597
    ydoethur said:

    Sadly, Rodney Bewes is with us no more.

    On 22nd November 1963, two giants of literature - Aldous Huxley and C. S. Lewis - died.

    The newspapers he following day were full of some unimportant political event or other and it is actually quite hard to find a meaningful obituary of either author in consequence.

    In light of Mugabe's defenestration I think the sad loss of A Likely Lad will be overshadowed by the much more cheerful loss of the Unlovely Lad. Which is a shame, but there we are.
    I was willing David Cassidy to hang on and not die the same day as Charles Manson as I couldn't face the thought of the tabloids with headlines "Monster Manson Dead" and then just a little piece at the bottom about the death of my teenage heartthrob.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    RobD said:

    welshowl said:

    RobD said:

    I for one would rather be having a bitter and vengeful argument about Brexit than enduring endless conversations about here-today-gone-tomorrow technology that none of us need.

    I'm currently putting the finishing touches on a thread that discusses both a new Scottish Independence referendum and AV.
    You know what makes a perfect evening? A nice pineapple pizza and a good AV thread. :smiley:
    With Radiohead on your wireless Apple
    earphones??
    Could life get any better?
    Pepper sausage and anchovies on the pizza next to the pineapple.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    Fantastic because you agree with them, and think they sock it to the Brexiteers.

    A true test of PoTY is picking someone objectively, who adds value and makes you think. I'd pick Southam Observer, Cyclefree, WilliamGlenn or Robert Smithson.
    I would nominate David Herdson for his antepenultimate nocturnal post that TM had blown it.

    Chris_in_paris for his Macron tip about a year ago, making for my best night of winnings yet.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,183
    edited November 2017
    SandraMc said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sadly, Rodney Bewes is with us no more.

    On 22nd November 1963, two giants of literature - Aldous Huxley and C. S. Lewis - died.

    The newspapers he following day were full of some unimportant political event or other and it is actually quite hard to find a meaningful obituary of either author in consequence.

    In light of Mugabe's defenestration I think the sad loss of A Likely Lad will be overshadowed by the much more cheerful loss of the Unlovely Lad. Which is a shame, but there we are.
    I was willing David Cassidy to hang on and not die the same day as Charles Manson as I couldn't face the thought of the tabloids with headlines "Monster Manson Dead" and then just a little piece at the bottom about the death of my teenage heartthrob.
    I have to say, on a somewhat unrelated topic, how strange I find it that everyone is having a good old Brexit slugfest instead of discussing Mugabe (one tweet from ScottP aside).

    Increasingly this site is resembling Gibbon's Christians in the dog days of the Roman Empire.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    There is of course next to no chance a FTA will be agreed by April 2019, after all it took Canada 7 years to agree a FTA with the EU.

    However provided May agreed to pay a sufficient exit bill FTA talks will start in the next few months and the transition period May has already agreed will provide at least another 2 years post Brexit for talks to continue.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Sean_F said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales You make some good points - Nick is much more laid back and calm when making his arguments than I could ever be.

    @Sean_F Like JRM then!

    I think he'd prefer 1450.
    1415.
    Is he in the Bow Group then?
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2017

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    Fantastic because you agree with them, and think they sock it to the Brexiteers.

    A true test of PoTY is picking someone objectively, who adds value and makes you think. I'd pick Southam Observer, Cyclefree, WilliamGlenn or Robert Smithson.
    I agree with most of the Remainers/centre-left posters on here, so it’s not just pure agreement that makes me say him (AM) for poster of year. I don’t always agree with Rochdale Pioneers, I didn’t during the GE certainly, and he’s a Brexiteer (unlike Mr Meeks). However despite my disagreements with him, I believe he, like Alastair Meeks adds value to this site.

    For you, it seems objectivity implies picking someone who don’t agree with, that’s fine but I don’t neccessarily agree that that always has to be case.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I wonder if he still thinks he made the right call.

    Nope, his view is that you have to trust the wisdom of the British voters.

    His view was the issue couldn't be left unresolved, and it would have been a lot lot messier, if it had happened without a referendum.

    Picture this scenario, no referendum in 2016, Dave steps down in 2019, he's replaced by Boris who puts in the 2020 Tory manifesto to withdraw us from the EU, Boris/The Tories win a majority on 38% and implement that manifesto.

    That would have been very messy.
    Your defence of Dave is touching but I fear the verdict of history is likely to be that his spinelessness in not standing up to the ultras led to an unnecessary referendum which took what is shaping up to be the most damaging decision in modern British history.
    Holding the referendum early in the parliamentary term to give the Tory party time to come back together before 2020 was a classic party before country moment for Cameron. Compounding that by then half arsing the negotiation then lying to the house about his intentions post referendum will seriously mark him down.
  • Options

    MikeL said:

    The latest Kantar Public poll also shows that Labour has the highest level of support among the general public (39% compared with 38% for the Conservatives). However, if we assume that turnout patterns are like the last two general elections, the Conservatives appear to currently have the upper hand (42%) ahead of Labour who are on 38%, the Lib Dems on 9% and UKIP on 5%

    https://test.kantar.com/public-opinion/economy/2017/british-households-under-pressure-and-gloomier-about-economy/

    But surely turnout pattern was massively different in 2017 compared to 2015.

    So which has Kantar used? An average of the two?
    Closer to their 2017 methodology.

    Their final poll at the general election had the Tories on 43% and Labour on 38%, which was pretty good when compared to the final result.
    Meh, Survation was better - YG model may have also been better than Kantar.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,183
    welshowl said:

    Sean_F said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales You make some good points - Nick is much more laid back and calm when making his arguments than I could ever be.

    @Sean_F Like JRM then!

    I think he'd prefer 1450.
    1415.
    Is he in the Bow Group then?
    Boom boom, one in a row.

    I would put up two fingers but I don't know how :smiley:
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    HYUFD said:

    There is of course next to no chance a FTA will be agreed by April 2019, after all it took Canada 7 years to agree a FTA with the EU.

    However provided May agreed to pay a sufficient exit bill FTA talks will start in the next few months and the transition period May has already agreed will provide at least another 2 years post Brexit for talks to continue.

    Unlike Canada, we are in complete regulatory alignment at the moment.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    welshowl said:

    RobD said:

    welshowl said:

    RobD said:

    I for one would rather be having a bitter and vengeful argument about Brexit than enduring endless conversations about here-today-gone-tomorrow technology that none of us need.

    I'm currently putting the finishing touches on a thread that discusses both a new Scottish Independence referendum and AV.
    You know what makes a perfect evening? A nice pineapple pizza and a good AV thread. :smiley:
    With Radiohead on your wireless Apple
    earphones??
    Could life get any better?
    Pepper sausage and anchovies on the pizza next to the pineapple.
    Sausage maybe, anchovies? *heaves*
  • Options

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    Fantastic because you agree with them, and think they sock it to the Brexiteers.

    A true test of PoTY is picking someone objectively, who adds value and makes you think. I'd pick Southam Observer, Cyclefree, WilliamGlenn or Robert Smithson.
    I agree with most of the Remainers/centre-left posters on here, so it’s not just pure agreement that makes me say him (AM) for poster of year. I don’t always agree with Rochdale Pioneers, I didn’t during the GE certainly, and he’s a Brexiteer (unlike Mr Meeks). However despite my disagreements with him, I believe he, like Alastair Meeks adds value to this site.

    For you, it seems objectivity implies picking someone who don’t agree with, that’s fine but I don’t neccessarily agree that that always has to be case.
    It's a bit of a giveaway when you precede such posts with tired cliches about Brexiteers wanting to take Britain back to 1950.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ydoethur said:

    SandraMc said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sadly, Rodney Bewes is with us no more.

    On 22nd November 1963, two giants of literature - Aldous Huxley and C. S. Lewis - died.

    The newspapers he following day were full of some unimportant political event or other and it is actually quite hard to find a meaningful obituary of either author in consequence.

    In light of Mugabe's defenestration I think the sad loss of A Likely Lad will be overshadowed by the much more cheerful loss of the Unlovely Lad. Which is a shame, but there we are.
    I was willing David Cassidy to hang on and not die the same day as Charles Manson as I couldn't face the thought of the tabloids with headlines "Monster Manson Dead" and then just a little piece at the bottom about the death of my teenage heartthrob.
    I have to say, on a somewhat unrelated topic, how strange I find it that everyone is having a good old Brexit slugfest instead of discussing Mugabe (one tweet from ScottP aside).

    Increasingly this site is resembling Gibbon's Christians in the dog days of the Roman Empire.
    There was a thread on it earlier.

    On the whole though we do not seem to have anyone with particular insight into the situation in Zim.

    Perhaps an anecdote may help, from an old Rhodesian friend about 15 years ago.:

    "I never expected to see a time when Ian Smith was warmly greeted when out in Harare, and Mugabe needed a bulletproof vehicle, but that's the way it is now"

    He mocked an English "drought" too...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,262

    MikeL said:

    The latest Kantar Public poll also shows that Labour has the highest level of support among the general public (39% compared with 38% for the Conservatives). However, if we assume that turnout patterns are like the last two general elections, the Conservatives appear to currently have the upper hand (42%) ahead of Labour who are on 38%, the Lib Dems on 9% and UKIP on 5%

    https://test.kantar.com/public-opinion/economy/2017/british-households-under-pressure-and-gloomier-about-economy/

    But surely turnout pattern was massively different in 2017 compared to 2015.

    So which has Kantar used? An average of the two?
    Closer to their 2017 methodology.

    Their final poll at the general election had the Tories on 43% and Labour on 38%, which was pretty good when compared to the final result.
    Whilst the individual changes in Kantar aren't dramatic, it is intereresting that in aggregate it suggests a slip back for both main parties with the minor parties all recovering some support.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Alistair said:

    I wonder if he still thinks he made the right call.

    Nope, his view is that you have to trust the wisdom of the British voters.

    His view was the issue couldn't be left unresolved, and it would have been a lot lot messier, if it had happened without a referendum.

    Picture this scenario, no referendum in 2016, Dave steps down in 2019, he's replaced by Boris who puts in the 2020 Tory manifesto to withdraw us from the EU, Boris/The Tories win a majority on 38% and implement that manifesto.

    That would have been very messy.
    Your defence of Dave is touching but I fear the verdict of history is likely to be that his spinelessness in not standing up to the ultras led to an unnecessary referendum which took what is shaping up to be the most damaging decision in modern British history.
    Holding the referendum early in the parliamentary term to give the Tory party time to come back together before 2020 was a classic party before country moment for Cameron. Compounding that by then half arsing the negotiation then lying to the house about his intentions post referendum will seriously mark him down.
    Yes I’m sure that’s right, but I also have s sneaking suspicion that the rush to June 2016 was to avoid a rerun of migrants crossing Europe en masse like 2015 that could’ve filled the tv screens in the empty August news season, and made an Autumn 2016 date trickier. It didn’t transpire of course ironically.
  • Options
    Speaking of williamglenn, re that tweet he posted: that divide between younger and older voters symbolic of the culture war we are currently in at the moment. Paperchase saga today, just another example of that.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,183

    ydoethur said:

    SandraMc said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sadly, Rodney Bewes is with us no more.

    On 22nd November 1963, two giants of literature - Aldous Huxley and C. S. Lewis - died.

    The newspapers he following day were full of some unimportant political event or other and it is actually quite hard to find a meaningful obituary of either author in consequence.

    In light of Mugabe's defenestration I think the sad loss of A Likely Lad will be overshadowed by the much more cheerful loss of the Unlovely Lad. Which is a shame, but there we are.
    I was willing David Cassidy to hang on and not die the same day as Charles Manson as I couldn't face the thought of the tabloids with headlines "Monster Manson Dead" and then just a little piece at the bottom about the death of my teenage heartthrob.
    I have to say, on a somewhat unrelated topic, how strange I find it that everyone is having a good old Brexit slugfest instead of discussing Mugabe (one tweet from ScottP aside).

    Increasingly this site is resembling Gibbon's Christians in the dog days of the Roman Empire.
    There was a thread on it earlier.

    On the whole though we do not seem to have anyone with particular insight into the situation in Zim.

    Perhaps an anecdote may help, from an old Rhodesian friend about 15 years ago.:

    "I never expected to see a time when Ian Smith was warmly greeted when out in Harare, and Mugabe needed a bulletproof vehicle, but that's the way it is now"

    He mocked an English "drought" too...
    The thread in question rapidly degenerated into Brexit.

    I was just comparing it in my mind to the commentary we had to the abortive Turkish coup a couple of years ago.

    Mugabe resigning is far more significant and has the potential to destabilise much of sub-Saharan Africa - and we get one tweet on it.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    RobD said:

    welshowl said:

    RobD said:

    welshowl said:

    RobD said:

    I for one would rather be having a bitter and vengeful argument about Brexit than enduring endless conversations about here-today-gone-tomorrow technology that none of us need.

    I'm currently putting the finishing touches on a thread that discusses both a new Scottish Independence referendum and AV.
    You know what makes a perfect evening? A nice pineapple pizza and a good AV thread. :smiley:
    With Radiohead on your wireless Apple
    earphones??
    Could life get any better?
    Pepper sausage and anchovies on the pizza next to the pineapple.
    Sausage maybe, anchovies? *heaves*
    Seasoning in a fishy form.

    Yum!
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    welshowl said:

    Alistair said:

    I wonder if he still thinks he made the right call.

    Nope, his view is that you have to trust the wisdom of the British voters.

    His view was the issue couldn't be left unresolved, and it would have been a lot lot messier, if it had happened without a referendum.

    Picture this scenario, no referendum in 2016, Dave steps down in 2019, he's replaced by Boris who puts in the 2020 Tory manifesto to withdraw us from the EU, Boris/The Tories win a majority on 38% and implement that manifesto.

    That would have been very messy.
    Your defence of Dave is touching but I fear the verdict of history is likely to be that his spinelessness in not standing up to the ultras led to an unnecessary referendum which took what is shaping up to be the most damaging decision in modern British history.
    Holding the referendum early in the parliamentary term to give the Tory party time to come back together before 2020 was a classic party before country moment for Cameron. Compounding that by then half arsing the negotiation then lying to the house about his intentions post referendum will seriously mark him down.
    Yes I’m sure that’s right, but I also have s sneaking suspicion that the rush to June 2016 was to avoid a rerun of migrants crossing Europe en masse like 2015 that could’ve filled the tv screens in the empty August news season, and made an Autumn 2016 date trickier. It didn’t transpire of course ironically.
    It was the same reason that the renegotiation was so botched. At that summit the real agenda item was to prevent a rerun of the 2015 refugee crisis. Hence no one was keen on listening.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    ydoethur said:

    welshowl said:

    Sean_F said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales You make some good points - Nick is much more laid back and calm when making his arguments than I could ever be.

    @Sean_F Like JRM then!

    I think he'd prefer 1450.
    1415.
    Is he in the Bow Group then?
    Boom boom, one in a row.

    I would put up two fingers but I don't know how :smiley:
    It’s the cuts.
  • Options

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    Th.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    Fantastic because you agree with them, and think they sock it to the Brexiteers.

    A true test of PoTY is picking someone objectively, who adds value and makes you think. I'd pick Southam Observer, Cyclefree, WilliamGlenn or Robert Smithson.
    I agree with most of the Remainers/centre-left posters on here, so it’s not just pure agreement that makes me say him (AM) for poster of year. I don’t always agree with Rochdale Pioneers, I didn’t during the GE certainly, and he’s a Brexiteer (unlike Mr Meeks). However despite my disagreements with him, I believe he, like Alastair Meeks adds value to this site.

    For you, it seems objectivity implies picking someone who don’t agree with, that’s fine but I don’t neccessarily agree that that always has to be case.
    It's a bit of a giveaway when you precede such posts with tired cliches about Brexiteers wanting to take Britain back to 1950.
    Well I’m sorry if your offended, but some of the research does suggest that many Brexiteers are in love with some past idea of Britain and want to return to that. LSE have done some interesting analysis on this, here’s one example: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/06/08/things-were-better-in-the-past-brexit-and-the-westminster-fallacy-of-democratic-nostalgia/
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    SandraMc said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sadly, Rodney Bewes is with us no more.

    On 22nd November 1963, two giants of literature - Aldous Huxley and C. S. Lewis - died.

    The newspapers he following day were full of some unimportant political event or other and it is actually quite hard to find a meaningful obituary of either author in consequence.

    In light of Mugabe's defenestration I think the sad loss of A Likely Lad will be overshadowed by the much more cheerful loss of the Unlovely Lad. Which is a shame, but there we are.
    I was willing David Cassidy to hang on and not die the same day as Charles Manson as I couldn't face the thought of the tabloids with headlines "Monster Manson Dead" and then just a little piece at the bottom about the death of my teenage heartthrob.
    I have to say, on a somewhat unrelated topic, how strange I find it that everyone is having a good old Brexit slugfest instead of discussing Mugabe (one tweet from ScottP aside).

    Increasingly this site is resembling Gibbon's Christians in the dog days of the Roman Empire.
    There was a thread on it earlier.

    On the whole though we do not seem to have anyone with particular insight into the situation in Zim.

    Perhaps an anecdote may help, from an old Rhodesian friend about 15 years ago.:

    "I never expected to see a time when Ian Smith was warmly greeted when out in Harare, and Mugabe needed a bulletproof vehicle, but that's the way it is now"

    He mocked an English "drought" too...
    The thread in question rapidly degenerated into Brexit.

    I was just comparing it in my mind to the commentary we had to the abortive Turkish coup a couple of years ago.

    Mugabe resigning is far more significant and has the potential to destabilise much of sub-Saharan Africa - and we get one tweet on it.
    I think it will only affect Zim.
  • Options

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    Fantastic because you agree with them, and think they sock it to the Brexiteers.

    A true test of PoTY is picking someone objectively, who adds value and makes you think. I'd pick Southam Observer, Cyclefree, WilliamGlenn or Robert Smithson.
    I am in the Nick Palmer camp. One of the most dignified posters on the site.
    Dignified and informative.

    We're lucky to have had NP on the site.

    cyclefree, ydoethur and kle also deserve a mention.

    The Apocalypse should also not be forgotten in being outside the normal PB demographics.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    Alistair said:

    I wonder if he still thinks he made the right call.

    Nope, his view is that you have to trust the wisdom of the British voters.

    His view was the issue couldn't be left unresolved, and it would have been a lot lot messier, if it had happened without a referendum.

    Picture this scenario, no referendum in 2016, Dave steps down in 2019, he's replaced by Boris who puts in the 2020 Tory manifesto to withdraw us from the EU, Boris/The Tories win a majority on 38% and implement that manifesto.

    That would have been very messy.
    Your defence of Dave is touching but I fear the verdict of history is likely to be that his spinelessness in not standing up to the ultras led to an unnecessary referendum which took what is shaping up to be the most damaging decision in modern British history.
    Holding the referendum early in the parliamentary term to give the Tory party time to come back together before 2020 was a classic party before country moment for Cameron. Compounding that by then half arsing the negotiation then lying to the house about his intentions post referendum will seriously mark him down.
    Yes I’m sure that’s right, but I also have s sneaking suspicion that the rush to June 2016 was to avoid a rerun of migrants crossing Europe en masse like 2015 that could’ve filled the tv screens in the empty August news season, and made an Autumn 2016 date trickier. It didn’t transpire of course ironically.
    It was the same reason that the renegotiation was so botched. At that summit the real agenda item was to prevent a rerun of the 2015 refugee crisis. Hence no one was keen on listening.
    Sure. Nobody round the negotiation table circa Jan /Feb 2016, was, in my view, taking it really seriously. Cameron thought he was on a party management jaunt and do did everyone else.

    The memoirs will be interesting as the participants realised through Apr-June that it was all going pear shaped from their point of view, but could do nothing active about it or just watch helplessly.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    ydoethur said:

    welshowl said:

    Sean_F said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales You make some good points - Nick is much more laid back and calm when making his arguments than I could ever be.

    @Sean_F Like JRM then!

    I think he'd prefer 1450.
    1415.
    Is he in the Bow Group then?
    Boom boom, one in a row.

    I would put up two fingers but I don't know how :smiley:
    Another thought: was it Yew Gov in those days?

    Gets coat...
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    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It is the difference between the generations that is going to be the problem in the medium to long term.

    Even if we leave (and I still think it won't happen), there will be a majority to rejoin within ten to fifteen years.

    Who knows what terms we will get. But certainly no rebates.
    Only problem with that thesis is that eventually the young become old... And get more right wing as they do so. ;)
    +1
    -1

    This only works so long as the average age at which you become a home owner, and no longer a home renter, remains the same. Over recent years this age has been rising rapidly.
    Also, isn't the usual equation that people become more conservative? Brexit isn't conservative, as people are beginning to learn.
    The fundamental problem is that many older leave voters didn't see Brexit as radical, assuming it would simply be a return to times past, overlooking the dramatic wrench that will be the transition to life outside the EU after more than forty five years of institutional and regulatory convergence.
    Agreed. It’s unbelievable how so many old people want to make my generation live in their past world. Economic issues aside, I like the modern world, and I really don’t fancy going back to 1950, or which ever past year Brexiteers want to go to.

    And btw, I must say that the posts by AlastairMeeks are fantastic. Him and Rochdale Pioneers for poster(s) of the year.
    Fantastic because you agree with them, and think they sock it to the Brexiteers.

    A true test of PoTY is picking someone objectively, who adds value and makes you think. I'd pick Southam Observer, Cyclefree, WilliamGlenn or Robert Smithson.
    I am in the Nick Palmer camp. One of the most dignified posters on the site.
    Dignified and informative.

    We're lucky to have had NP on the site.

    cyclefree, ydoethur and kle also deserve a mention.

    The Apocalypse should also not be forgotten in being outside the normal PB demographics.
    Agree with all of those.
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    NEW THREAD

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    You've got to laugh at the Guardian's coverage of government borrowing.

    It's all bad news... until you get to the bit that says "The lower levels of borrowing mean the chancellor is likely to undershoot the OBR’s March forecast for £58.3bn of borrowing during the financial year ending March 2018."

    As in... it's actually good news...

    Indeed.

    Compare today's summary:

    ' •Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £4.1 billion to £38.5 billion in the current financial year-to-date (April 2017 to October 2017), compared with the same period in 2016; this is the lowest year-to-date net borrowing since 2007. '

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/october2017

    with that from last month:

    ' •Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £2.5 billion to £32.5 billion in the current financial year-to-date (April 2017 to September 2017), compared with the same period in 2016; this is the lowest year-to-date net borrowing since 2007. '

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/september2017

    So from a £2.5bn annual improvement to a £4.1bn annual improvement.

    It looks like government borrowing as a percentage of GDP will be lower in 2017 than in any year since 2002 or possibly even 2001.
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    Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    edited November 2017
    Re the comments earlier about Anna Soubry and Broxtowe:

    Anna Soubry is, by far, the MP of any political persuasion that I have the most respect for. On one hand I'd love it if she'd defect to my party (Lib Dems) but, on the other hand, an equal part of me thinks it's maybe more important on a national level that her particular strand of civilised Conservatism (of which she is the best spokesperson for) retains some kind of voice in her own party.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    I've been thinking long and hard about who should be poster of the year, and I think it's pretty obvious.

    This person is personally charming, and unfailingly polite on-line. His posts bring light where there was previously only heat. He is insightful, intelligent, and modest. His betting tips have been unfailingly profitable and his musical taste is unsurpassed.

    And he is, in short, me.

    rcs1000 for POTY. You know it makes sense. (And anyone who suggests otherwise is going to get banned.)
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