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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is one betting market I’m absolutely confident the punter

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited November 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is one betting market I’m absolutely confident the punters have undoubtedly got right

Let's have a look at where the money has been going in next year's exciting Russian Presidential Election. pic.twitter.com/DHb1eEsKo1

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • dodradedodrade Posts: 197
    edited November 2017
    First like Putin.

    Who is the 0.1% on?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    Second like Remain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839
    What a beautiful pie chart.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    dodrade said:

    First like Putin.

    Who is the 0.1% on?

    The Grim Reaper calling him in first?
  • RobD said:

    What a beautiful pie chart.

    This is my favouritest ever pie chart

    image
  • Re Corbyn’s Brexit policy:



    Thought this was an interesting take, chimes with what HYUFD has said on Labour Leavers potentially leaving Labour in certain circumstances.

    It’s probably a good political strategy by Labour, even if I personally don’t like it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582

    RobD said:

    What a beautiful pie chart.

    This is my favouritest ever pie chart

    image
    The shady side worked for News of the Screws, obviously, allowing the Sun and Sky to dodge the bullet. :wink:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 28,908
    edited November 2017
    dodrade said:

    First like Putin.

    Who is the 0.1% on?

    A Russian TV personality described as the country's version of Paris Hilton has said she will run for president in a challenge to Vladimir Putin.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4994996/TV-star-Russia-s-Paris-Hilton-run-president.html

    Porn star announces she will stand against Putin in Russian elections and vows to bring in the death penalty for sexual harassment in the wake of Weinstein scandal

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5043165/Porn-star-announces-stand-against-Putin.html

    In all seriousness, isn't the "genuine" opposition candidate ineligible because he now has a criminal conviction?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839

    RobD said:

    What a beautiful pie chart.

    This is my favouritest ever pie chart

    image
    Hah! I do like the Meat Loaf one though:

    image

    /pie chart spam.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582

    Porn star announces she will stand against Putin in Russian elections and vows to bring in the death penalty for sexual harassment in the wake of Weinstein scandal

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5043165/Porn-star-announces-stand-against-Putin.html

    He'll be quite happy if she stands against him.

    A porn star is appropriate to go up against a cock.

    Insert any other mildly sexist but quite funny jokes below according to taste.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    What a beautiful pie chart.

    This is my favouritest ever pie chart

    image
    Hah! I do like the Meat Loaf one though:

    image

    /pie chart spam.

    What was 'that' ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,839

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    What a beautiful pie chart.

    This is my favouritest ever pie chart

    Hah! I do like the Meat Loaf one though:



    /pie chart spam.

    What was 'that' ?
    From the man himself: http://ultimateclassicrock.com/meat-loaf-i-would-do-anything-for-love/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    edited November 2017
    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 333 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
  • HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 310 seats to 268 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 310 seats to 268 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    A majority with 15 seats fewer than the opposition sounds more like Mugabe in 2008, actually.

    (I'm assuming it's a typo, btw and should be 333.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 310 seats to 268 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    A majority with 15 seats fewer than the opposition sounds more like Mugabe in 2008, actually.

    (I'm assuming it's a typo, btw and should be 333.)
    Yes apologies, now corrected
  • A nice bit of economic rebalancing taking place:

    ' Manufacturing orders strongest for nearly 30 years

    Growth in manufacturing output accelerated in the three months to November according to the latest monthly CBI Industrial Trends Survey.

    Order books also continued to fill up. Total orders were, by a small margin, the strongest since August 1988, while export order books were the joint highest in more than 20 years. '

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-orders-strongest-for-nearly-30-years/
  • jayfdee said:
    That looks more like a tart than a pie.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,978
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    Brexit/democracy is more popular amongst the public at large than many on here would have you believe.

  • The east-west split in government spending is interesting:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-42049922
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,192
    edited November 2017
    Can I add my voice to those appreciating @NickPalmer's contributions to this site.

    This site benefits from having lots of very good contributors. Invidious to name them all. But I would mention Miss @The_Apocalypse who brings a very welcome and different perspective.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,576
    I've been thinking long and hard about who should be poster of the year, and I think it's pretty obvious.

    This person is personally charming, and unfailingly polite on-line. His posts bring light where there was previously only heat. He is insightful, intelligent, and modest. His betting tips have been unfailingly profitable and his musical taste is unsurpassed.

    And he is, in short, me.

    rcs1000 for POTY. You know it makes sense. (And anyone who suggests otherwise is going to get banned.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    edited November 2017
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    A half-decent opposition would by now be in polling terms a small dust cloud on the far horizon.

    That Corbyn is still behind on some measures and barely ahead on all the others says quite a lot about his severe shortcomings as leader that people have been more reluctant to talk about since June but have emphatically not gone away.

    To my mind the most damning statistic is that he has far better net approval ratings than May but trails on the 'Best PM' ratings. Even though people are thoroughly disillusioned with and sick of May, all but a fairly large minority still see him as a worse option.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    rcs1000 said:

    his musical taste is unsurpassed.

    In which direction?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    edited November 2017
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    Brexit/democracy is more popular amongst the public at large than many on here would have you believe.

    Yes, if they ventured out of London or the other big cities occasionally it might help them get a broader perspective.
  • Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    Brexit/democracy is more popular amongst the public at large than many on here would have you believe.

    Nor are people as bothered about porn on Damien Green's computer or that woman imprisoned in Iran as the media think.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,978
    rcs1000 said:

    I've been thinking long and hard about who should be poster of the year, and I think it's pretty obvious.

    This person is personally charming, and unfailingly polite on-line. His posts bring light where there was previously only heat. He is insightful, intelligent, and modest. His betting tips have been unfailingly profitable and his musical taste is unsurpassed.

    And he is, in short, me.

    rcs1000 for POTY. You know it makes sense. (And anyone who suggests otherwise is going to get banned.)

    Some say his coding, like his wit, is so sharp - that servers fall over during updates. :)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,978

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    Brexit/democracy is more popular amongst the public at large than many on here would have you believe.

    Nor are people as bothered about porn on Damien Green's computer or that woman imprisoned in Iran as the media think.
    Quite.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    Brexit/democracy is more popular amongst the public at large than many on here would have you believe.

    Yes, if they ventured out of London or the other big cities occasionally it might help them get a broader perspective.
    I was quite shocked the other day while reading Thatcher's bio in the ODNB to find it used the word 'provincial' as a term of abuse. While there are many things that might legitimately be said of Thatcher, to call her provincial is (a) to my mind very wrong and (b) a really strange way of looking at the world. It does imply good things can only happen in metropolitan areas, which is clearly stupid.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    rcs1000 said:

    I've been thinking long and hard about who should be poster of the year, and I think it's pretty obvious.

    This person is personally charming, and unfailingly polite on-line. His posts bring light where there was previously only heat. He is insightful, intelligent, and modest. His betting tips have been unfailingly profitable and his musical taste is unsurpassed.

    And he is, in short, me.

    rcs1000 for POTY. You know it makes sense. (And anyone who suggests otherwise is going to get banned.)

    Yes indeed sir

    (I've always been a follower)
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 505

    jayfdee said:
    That looks more like a tart than a pie.
    Yeah "Tart chart" you heard it here first.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,192
    rcs1000 said:

    I've been thinking long and hard about who should be poster of the year, and I think it's pretty obvious.

    This person is personally charming, and unfailingly polite on-line. His posts bring light where there was previously only heat. He is insightful, intelligent, and modest. His betting tips have been unfailingly profitable and his musical taste is unsurpassed.

    And he is, in short, me.

    rcs1000 for POTY. You know it makes sense. (And anyone who suggests otherwise is going to get banned.)

    Ah - but is he sufficiently diverse? And well-dressed? And then there is the shoe question.

    Also, does he understand the importance of handbags (a vital component in British/EU politics)?

    It's not quite easy as you think..........

  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    A half-decent opposition would by now be in polling terms a small dust cloud on the far horizon.

    That Corbyn is still behind on some measures and barely ahead on all the others says quite a lot about his severe shortcomings as leader that people have been more reluctant to talk about since June but have emphatically not gone away.

    To my mind the most damning statistic is that he has far better net approval ratings than May but trails on the 'Best PM' ratings. Even though people are thoroughly disillusioned with and sick of May, all but a fairly large minority still see him as a worse option.
    People would prefer to have Corbyn as a neighbour but think May would be better at organising a barbeque.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    edited November 2017
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    A half-decent opposition would by now be in polling terms a small dust cloud on the far horizon.

    That Corbyn is still behind on some measures and barely ahead on all the others says quite a lot about his severe shortcomings as leader that people have been more reluctant to talk about since June but have emphatically not gone away.

    To my mind the most damning statistic is that he has far better net approval ratings than May but trails on the 'Best PM' ratings. Even though people are thoroughly disillusioned with and sick of May, all but a fairly large minority still see him as a worse option.
    Yes, Corbyn has clearly got around 40% enthusiastically behind him but getting the close to 45% he needs for an overall majority given the collapse of the LDs and UKIP and the fact the SNP still hold most seats in Scotland still seems beyond him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've been thinking long and hard about who should be poster of the year, and I think it's pretty obvious.

    This person is personally charming, and unfailingly polite on-line. His posts bring light where there was previously only heat. He is insightful, intelligent, and modest. His betting tips have been unfailingly profitable and his musical taste is unsurpassed.

    And he is, in short, me.

    rcs1000 for POTY. You know it makes sense. (And anyone who suggests otherwise is going to get banned.)

    Yes indeed sir

    (I've always been a follower)
    If we're thinking about awards, can I nominate that post for the Order of the Brown Nose?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,130
    Interesting new poll from the Spiegel:

    image

    It matches up with my own estimates from earlier today. Union and SPD down, minor parties up. I think AfD will outperform that a bit as well just as they did in the previous election vs their polling rating.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    What a beautiful pie chart.

    This is my favouritest ever pie chart

    image
    Hah! I do like the Meat Loaf one though:

    image

    /pie chart spam.

    What was 'that' ?
    Unclear.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,978
    MaxPB said:

    Interesting new poll from the Spiegel:

    image

    It matches up with my own estimates from earlier today. Union and SPD down, minor parties up. I think AfD will outperform that a bit as well just as they did in the previous election vs their polling rating.

    Dreadful for CDU/CSU
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,259
    edited November 2017
    Thank you to the posters (also from the previous thread) another_richard, Richard Tyndall and Cyclefree for their kind words. I’m glad at least some posters don’t regard my posts as unbearable....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,038
    He will surpass Brezhnev term as De Facto leader of Russia/USSR next year. I assume he will be way over 60% of the vote again.
    Medvedev wiki entry is amusing as President
    Preceded by Putin
    Prime minister Putin
    Succeeded by Putin
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    edited November 2017

    Thank you to the posters (also from the previous thread) another_richard, Richard Tyndall and Cyclefree for their kind words. I’m glad at least some posters don’t regard my posts as unbearable....

    I've always found your posts worth reading, speaking for myself. And that is sadly not something I feel able to say about at least one of the other posters being extolled, so I am not just saying it for the sake of it.
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    A half-decent opposition would by now be in polling terms a small dust cloud on the far horizon.

    That Corbyn is still behind on some measures and barely ahead on all the others says quite a lot about his severe shortcomings as leader that people have been more reluctant to talk about since June but have emphatically not gone away.

    To my mind the most damning statistic is that he has far better net approval ratings than May but trails on the 'Best PM' ratings. Even though people are thoroughly disillusioned with and sick of May, all but a fairly large minority still see him as a worse option.
    People would prefer to have Corbyn as a neighbour but think May would be better at organising a barbeque.
    Too right. I'd never trust a veggie to organise a barbeque!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,584
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I add my voice to those appreciating @NickPalmer's contributions to this site.

    This site benefits from having lots of very good contributors. Invidious to name them all. But I would mention Miss @The_Apocalypse who brings a very welcome and different perspective.

    A startled thanks from me - I missed the kind comments from Big G, Richard T and others on the last thread - thank you all.

    I like different posters for different things. Cyclefree for verve. Peter the Punter for integrity. Richard Tyndall for objectivity even when it doesn't suit his argument. Big G for amiability. another_richard for his repeated reminder that not all voters are ABs. kle4 for patient exposition. fox for being such a Corbyn tease - we'll actually get you to vote with us one day! TSE for fun. Most people, really - it's still an excellent site even though we all sometimes whinge.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,192

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    A half-decent opposition would by now be in polling terms a small dust cloud on the far horizon.

    That Corbyn is still behind on some measures and barely ahead on all the others says quite a lot about his severe shortcomings as leader that people have been more reluctant to talk about since June but have emphatically not gone away.

    To my mind the most damning statistic is that he has far better net approval ratings than May but trails on the 'Best PM' ratings. Even though people are thoroughly disillusioned with and sick of May, all but a fairly large minority still see him as a worse option.
    People would prefer to have Corbyn as a neighbour but think May would be better at organising a barbeque.
    Don't be ridiculous. Corbyn as a neighbour certainly. But May would probably set fire to you and serve you half-cooked burgers and ice cold salad with salad dressing. You'd be lucky if you didn't spend the night in the loo.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    A half-decent opposition would by now be in polling terms a small dust cloud on the far horizon.

    That Corbyn is still behind on some measures and barely ahead on all the others says quite a lot about his severe shortcomings as leader that people have been more reluctant to talk about since June but have emphatically not gone away.

    To my mind the most damning statistic is that he has far better net approval ratings than May but trails on the 'Best PM' ratings. Even though people are thoroughly disillusioned with and sick of May, all but a fairly large minority still see him as a worse option.
    People would prefer to have Corbyn as a neighbour but think May would be better at organising a barbeque.
    Too right. I'd never trust a veggie to organise a barbeque!
    And yet I would only reluctantly trust May with the task of organising a piss-up in a brewery.

    And I still think Corbyn is worse, and clearly I am not untypical.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,982

    A nice bit of economic rebalancing taking place:

    ' Manufacturing orders strongest for nearly 30 years

    Growth in manufacturing output accelerated in the three months to November according to the latest monthly CBI Industrial Trends Survey.

    Order books also continued to fill up. Total orders were, by a small margin, the strongest since August 1988, while export order books were the joint highest in more than 20 years. '

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-orders-strongest-for-nearly-30-years/

    which manufacturing sector do you work in ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I add my voice to those appreciating @NickPalmer's contributions to this site.

    While I would no doubt disagree with many of the things he wished to do, I would be very happy indeed to have Dr Palmer as an elected representative.
  • Thank you to the posters (also from the previous thread) another_richard, Richard Tyndall and Cyclefree for their kind words. I’m glad at least some posters don’t regard my posts as unbearable....

    I find your posts very interesting and certainly not unbearable.

    That doesn't mean I often agree but that is the strength of this forum

    The one thing that really disappoints me is when posters use unnecessary and sweary language in an attempt to force an opinion
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,192

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I add my voice to those appreciating @NickPalmer's contributions to this site.

    This site benefits from having lots of very good contributors. Invidious to name them all. But I would mention Miss @The_Apocalypse who brings a very welcome and different perspective.

    A startled thanks from me - I missed the kind comments from Big G, Richard T and others on the last thread - thank you all.

    I like different posters for different things. Cyclefree for verve. Peter the Punter for integrity. Richard Tyndall for objectivity even when it doesn't suit his argument. Big G for amiability. another_richard for his repeated reminder that not all voters are ABs. kle4 for patient exposition. fox for being such a Corbyn tease - we'll actually get you to vote with us one day! TSE for fun. Most people, really - it's still an excellent site even though we all sometimes whinge.
    Nick: your job here will be done when you get me to vote Labour! Don't get too excited. It would have to be after that nice Mr Corbyn goes back to his allotment. But then ...... well like many I feel like a political orphan.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 11,416
    edited November 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    A half-decent opposition would by now be in polling terms a small dust cloud on the far horizon.

    That Corbyn is still behind on some measures and barely ahead on all the others says quite a lot about his severe shortcomings as leader that people have been more reluctant to talk about since June but have emphatically not gone away.

    To my mind the most damning statistic is that he has far better net approval ratings than May but trails on the 'Best PM' ratings. Even though people are thoroughly disillusioned with and sick of May, all but a fairly large minority still see him as a worse option.
    People would prefer to have Corbyn as a neighbour but think May would be better at organising a barbeque.
    Don't be ridiculous. Corbyn as a neighbour certainly. But May would probably set fire to you and serve you half-cooked burgers and ice cold salad with salad dressing. You'd be lucky if you didn't spend the night in the loo.
    But barbeque is bloke's territory so we could rely on Philip May organising the burgers and sausages.

    And I couldn't imagine what Corbyn would serve up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    A half-decent opposition would by now be in polling terms a small dust cloud on the far horizon.

    That Corbyn is still behind on some measures and barely ahead on all the others says quite a lot about his severe shortcomings as leader that people have been more reluctant to talk about since June but have emphatically not gone away.

    To my mind the most damning statistic is that he has far better net approval ratings than May but trails on the 'Best PM' ratings. Even though people are thoroughly disillusioned with and sick of May, all but a fairly large minority still see him as a worse option.
    People would prefer to have Corbyn as a neighbour but think May would be better at organising a barbeque.
    Don't be ridiculous. Corbyn as a neighbour certainly. But May would probably set fire to you and serve you half-cooked burgers and ice cold salad with salad dressing. You'd be lucky if you didn't spend the night in the loo.
    But barbeque is bloke's territory so we could rely on Philip May organising the burgers and sausages.
    May would burger it up somehow.

    I'll get my coat...
  • rcs1000 said:

    I've been thinking long and hard about who should be poster of the year, and I think it's pretty obvious.

    This person is personally charming, and unfailingly polite on-line. His posts bring light where there was previously only heat. He is insightful, intelligent, and modest. His betting tips have been unfailingly profitable and his musical taste is unsurpassed.

    And he is, in short, me.

    rcs1000 for POTY. You know it makes sense. (And anyone who suggests otherwise is going to get banned.)

    Oh no. I think in the spirit of the current Brexit negotiations only British residents should qualify for nomination. :)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,827
    edited November 2017

    The east-west split in government spending is interesting:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-42049922

    Government spending per person, by region or nation, 2016-17:
    Northern Ireland - £11,042
    Scotland - £10,651
    London - £10,192
    Wales - £10,076
    North East - £9,680
    North West - £9,429
    UK average - £9,159
    West Midlands - £8,846
    Yorkshire and the Humber - £8,810
    South West - £8,549
    East Midlands - £8,282
    East - £8,155
    South East - £8,111

    Funny how the BBC focuses upon the change since 2012-13. The East Midlands being on a par with the richer parts of the country is interesting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    Pulpstar said:

    He will surpass Brezhnev term as De Facto leader of Russia/USSR next year. I assume he will be way over 60% of the vote again.

    But not too much higher - you don't want to raise suspicions, it's in the autocratic leader's handbook. All those outright dictators with 90+%, just don't get that you might as well not have a vote if you're going to make it that one sided.

    Do you think he is slightly annoyed Medvedev got a higher vote in 2008 than he got in his last election?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,038
    Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1.
    The most ridiculous lawsuit in years.
    Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted
  • Cyclefree said:

    Can I add my voice to those appreciating @NickPalmer's contributions to this site.

    This site benefits from having lots of very good contributors. Invidious to name them all. But I would mention Miss @The_Apocalypse who brings a very welcome and different perspective.

    A startled thanks from me - I missed the kind comments from Big G, Richard T and others on the last thread - thank you all.

    I like different posters for different things. Cyclefree for verve. Peter the Punter for integrity. Richard Tyndall for objectivity even when it doesn't suit his argument. Big G for amiability. another_richard for his repeated reminder that not all voters are ABs. kle4 for patient exposition. fox for being such a Corbyn tease - we'll actually get you to vote with us one day! TSE for fun. Most people, really - it's still an excellent site even though we all sometimes whinge.
    A perfect response consistant with your contribution to this site Nick

    No 1 for me but I may just pip you to 10,000 posts
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 10,192

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    A half-decent opposition would by now be in polling terms a small dust cloud on the far horizon.

    That Corbyn is still behind on some measures and barely ahead on all the others says quite a lot about his severe shortcomings as leader that people have been more reluctant to talk about since June but have emphatically not gone away.

    To my mind the most damning statistic is that he has far better net approval ratings than May but trails on the 'Best PM' ratings. Even though people are thoroughly disillusioned with and sick of May, all but a fairly large minority still see him as a worse option.
    People would prefer to have Corbyn as a neighbour but think May would be better at organising a barbeque.
    Don't be ridiculous. Corbyn as a neighbour certainly. But May would probably set fire to you and serve you half-cooked burgers and ice cold salad with salad dressing. You'd be lucky if you didn't spend the night in the loo.
    But barbeque is bloke's territory so we could rely on Philip May organising the burgers and sausages.

    And I couldn't imagine what Corbyn would serve up.
    Righto. So Mrs May would be doing the drinks, would she? Great........
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,658
    Hello!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    edited November 2017
    tlg86 said:

    The east-west split in government spending is interesting:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-42049922

    Government spending per person, by region or nation, 2016-17:
    Northern Ireland - £11,042
    Scotland - £10,651
    London - £10,192
    Wales - £10,076
    North East - £9,680
    North West - £9,429
    UK average - £9,159
    West Midlands - £8,846
    Yorkshire and the Humber - £8,810
    South West - £8,549
    East Midlands - £8,282
    East - £8,155
    South East - £8,111

    Funny how the BBC focuses upon the change since 2012-13. The presence of the East Midlands on a par with the richer parts of the country is interesting.
    Why is the South West so low? I would have thought outside Bristol and its environs it would actually be one of the poorer parts of the country, especially Cornwall. I would also have thought that more public money would be spent in Bristol than elsewhere too.

    Northern Ireland at the top is no surprise of course, and it just went further ahead :smiley:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1.
    The most ridiculous lawsuit in years.
    Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted

    Perhaps the judgement can suggest that given the poor understanding of the law that led to him bringing the case, it could be argued for one that the result he obtained was perfectly adequate, and also that no level of teaching can guarantee some people achieve more.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1.
    The most ridiculous lawsuit in years.
    Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted

    It will set a worrying precedent if he wins.
  • ydoethur said:

    Thank you to the posters (also from the previous thread) another_richard, Richard Tyndall and Cyclefree for their kind words. I’m glad at least some posters don’t regard my posts as unbearable....

    I've always found your posts worth reading, speaking for myself. And that is sadly not something I feel able to say about at least one of the other posters being extolled, so I am not just saying it for the sake of it.
    Thanks.

    Your posts are pretty interesting as well! I don’t think we have too many centrist, Remainer history teachers on here! I have found your analysis of the current problems with the education system right now well worth a read.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    A half-decent opposition would by now be in polling terms a small dust cloud on the far horizon.

    That Corbyn is still behind on some measures and barely ahead on all the others says quite a lot about his severe shortcomings as leader that people have been more reluctant to talk about since June but have emphatically not gone away.

    To my mind the most damning statistic is that he has far better net approval ratings than May but trails on the 'Best PM' ratings. Even though people are thoroughly disillusioned with and sick of May, all but a fairly large minority still see him as a worse option.
    People would prefer to have Corbyn as a neighbour but think May would be better at organising a barbeque.
    Don't be ridiculous. Corbyn as a neighbour certainly. But May would probably set fire to you and serve you half-cooked burgers and ice cold salad with salad dressing. You'd be lucky if you didn't spend the night in the loo.
    But barbeque is bloke's territory so we could rely on Philip May organising the burgers and sausages.

    And I couldn't imagine what Corbyn would serve up.
    Righto. So Mrs May would be doing the drinks, would she? Great........
    Cups of tea anyone
  • Pulpstar said:

    Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1.
    The most ridiculous lawsuit in years.
    Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted

    I don't understand why he's taken so long to claim damages.

    Though I can forsee people wanting their tuition fees back from the likes of 'Scumbag University' in future.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1.
    The most ridiculous lawsuit in years.
    Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted

    I thought his degree was in Modern History?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    The east-west split in government spending is interesting:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-42049922

    Government spending per person, by region or nation, 2016-17:
    Northern Ireland - £11,042
    Scotland - £10,651
    London - £10,192
    Wales - £10,076
    North East - £9,680
    North West - £9,429
    UK average - £9,159
    West Midlands - £8,846
    Yorkshire and the Humber - £8,810
    South West - £8,549
    East Midlands - £8,282
    East - £8,155
    South East - £8,111

    Funny how the BBC focuses upon the change since 2012-13. The presence of the East Midlands on a par with the richer parts of the country is interesting.
    Why is the South West so low? I would have thought outside Bristol and its environs it would actually be one of the poorer parts of the country, especially Cornwall.
    The refrain from local politicians in these parts is we definitely get a poor deal when it comes to central government funding in all matters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1.
    The most ridiculous lawsuit in years.
    Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted

    I thought his degree was in Modern History?
    Pff, if it happened less than 100 years ago, it ain't history.

    In other matters, Liverpoor reverting to type.
  • SeanT said:

    Hello!

    Hello.
  • kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1.
    The most ridiculous lawsuit in years.
    Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted

    I thought his degree was in Modern History?
    Pff, if it happened less than 100 years ago, it ain't history.

    In other matters, Liverpoor reverting to type.
    No, Alberto Moreno reverting to type.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    I see the BBC with its documentary "Labour -the Summer that changed everything" -has bought into the Corbynista narrative that Corbyn is the great Messiah and moderates are the deluded.

    And yet the polls continue to show Labour with tiny leads, less than Miliband and Kinnock, and the likelihood of Tories who abstained because of the Tory campaign and policies against the old, voting in droves to stop Corbyn next time remains very high.

    I wonder what will happen when the next exit poll shocker in 2022 foretells a sound defeat for Corbyn.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 8,827
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    The east-west split in government spending is interesting:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-42049922

    Government spending per person, by region or nation, 2016-17:
    Northern Ireland - £11,042
    Scotland - £10,651
    London - £10,192
    Wales - £10,076
    North East - £9,680
    North West - £9,429
    UK average - £9,159
    West Midlands - £8,846
    Yorkshire and the Humber - £8,810
    South West - £8,549
    East Midlands - £8,282
    East - £8,155
    South East - £8,111

    Funny how the BBC focuses upon the change since 2012-13. The presence of the East Midlands on a par with the richer parts of the country is interesting.
    Why is the South West so low? I would have thought outside Bristol and its environs it would actually be one of the poorer parts of the country, especially Cornwall.
    The refrain from local politicians in these parts is we definitely get a poor deal when it comes to central government funding in all matters.
    Surely a lot of this is welfare. I'd imagine the growth in spending in the South East is driven by the increased costs associated with an ageing population living in an expensive part of the country.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    He will surpass Brezhnev term as De Facto leader of Russia/USSR next year. I assume he will be way over 60% of the vote again.

    But not too much higher - you don't want to raise suspicions, it's in the autocratic leader's handbook. All those outright dictators with 90+%, just don't get that you might as well not have a vote if you're going to make it that one sided.

    Do you think he is slightly annoyed Medvedev got a higher vote in 2008 than he got in his last election?
    Wasn't it Comical Ali who once claimed Saddam had secured 100% of the vote in one election on a 100% turnout?

    I also remember Michael Gove, in the days when he was an acerbic and witty journalist rather than a dogmatic and hectoring Cabinet Minister, said of Iran that it was a perfect democracy of one person, one vote. The Supreme Ayatollah being the Person with the Vote (obviously borrowed from the late and much-missed Sir Terry, but still a good line).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,038

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1.
    The most ridiculous lawsuit in years.
    Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted

    I thought his degree was in Modern History?
    Yes it was. He switched to law after Uni. It is still a crackers suit mind
  • Pulpstar said:

    Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1.
    The most ridiculous lawsuit in years.
    Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted

    I thought his degree was in Modern History?
    What's that? What did I have for breakfast this morning?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487
    SeanT said:

    Hello!


    Is It Me You're Looking For?

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2017
    From 2011;

    America's top forensic scientist has warned that axing the UK's Forensic Science Service (FSS) will increase the risk of miscarriages of justice.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/csi-chief-condemns-forensic-cuts-2179744.html

    Now it turns out Owen Paterson is being paid £500/hr for "consultancy work" by the company who were faking the results of forensic tests.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-politician-earns-100000-year-10512284

    The tories have really screwed up the country.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    stevef said:

    I see the BBC with its documentary "Labour -the Summer that changed everything" -has bought into the Corbynista narrative that Corbyn is the great Messiah and moderates are the deluded.

    And yet the polls continue to show Labour with tiny leads, less than Miliband and Kinnock, and the likelihood of Tories who abstained because of the Tory campaign and policies against the old, voting in droves to stop Corbyn next time remains very high.

    I wonder what will happen when the next exit poll shocker in 2022 foretells a sound defeat for Corbyn.

    Keep dreaming.
  • @Big_G_NorthWales Thanks! To echo Nick Palmer’s statement you are one of the most amiable posters on this site. One of the good things about PB, is that you become much more open to reading and hearing out other views.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,982
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    The east-west split in government spending is interesting:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-42049922

    Government spending per person, by region or nation, 2016-17:
    Northern Ireland - £11,042
    Scotland - £10,651
    London - £10,192
    Wales - £10,076
    North East - £9,680
    North West - £9,429
    UK average - £9,159
    West Midlands - £8,846
    Yorkshire and the Humber - £8,810
    South West - £8,549
    East Midlands - £8,282
    East - £8,155
    South East - £8,111

    Funny how the BBC focuses upon the change since 2012-13. The presence of the East Midlands on a par with the richer parts of the country is interesting.
    Why is the South West so low? I would have thought outside Bristol and its environs it would actually be one of the poorer parts of the country, especially Cornwall. I would also have thought that more public money would be spent in Bristol than elsewhere too.

    Northern Ireland at the top is no surprise of course, and it just went further ahead :smiley:
    well at least we know what theyre going to spend the money on

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/donegal-would-be-better-off-being-part-of-the-uk-politician-36341724.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1.
    The most ridiculous lawsuit in years.
    Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted

    I thought his degree was in Modern History?
    Pff, if it happened less than 100 years ago, it ain't history.

    In other matters, Liverpoor reverting to type.
    No, Alberto Moreno reverting to type.
    And which team keeps playing him?

    He seems very decent moving forward, I don't know why he isn't just officially made a midfielder.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    edited November 2017
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    The east-west split in government spending is interesting:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-42049922

    Government spending per person, by region or nation, 2016-17:
    Northern Ireland - £11,042
    Scotland - £10,651
    London - £10,192
    Wales - £10,076
    North East - £9,680
    North West - £9,429
    UK average - £9,159
    West Midlands - £8,846
    Yorkshire and the Humber - £8,810
    South West - £8,549
    East Midlands - £8,282
    East - £8,155
    South East - £8,111

    Funny how the BBC focuses upon the change since 2012-13. The presence of the East Midlands on a par with the richer parts of the country is interesting.
    Why is the South West so low? I would have thought outside Bristol and its environs it would actually be one of the poorer parts of the country, especially Cornwall.
    The refrain from local politicians in these parts is we definitely get a poor deal when it comes to central government funding in all matters.
    It certainly seems strangely out of kilter. What are the two big economic props? Agriculture and tourism, both of them to a great extent seasonal. So much work must be casual and migratory - requiring benefit payments at certain times. Agriculture gets government subsidies and tourism should be promoted through the tourist board. Moreover there are six universities (seven if you count Falmouth separately) one of which is one of the world's top universities which should be attracting big money in government grants.

    So how come it's so low? It suggests either an odd method of calculation or literally no other payments are made.
  • surbiton said:

    stevef said:

    I see the BBC with its documentary "Labour -the Summer that changed everything" -has bought into the Corbynista narrative that Corbyn is the great Messiah and moderates are the deluded.

    And yet the polls continue to show Labour with tiny leads, less than Miliband and Kinnock, and the likelihood of Tories who abstained because of the Tory campaign and policies against the old, voting in droves to stop Corbyn next time remains very high.

    I wonder what will happen when the next exit poll shocker in 2022 foretells a sound defeat for Corbyn.

    Keep dreaming.
    After everything that has happened in the last couple of years to buy the narrative that a Labour win is mailed on would be crazy. It may well happen and the Tories are doing their best to make it so, but every other narrative has been wrong so no reason to think this one can't be too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    According to wiki the United Russia candidate for 2018 Russian Elections is TBD. Oh Mr Putin, so coy.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,487
    houndtang said:

    surbiton said:

    stevef said:

    I see the BBC with its documentary "Labour -the Summer that changed everything" -has bought into the Corbynista narrative that Corbyn is the great Messiah and moderates are the deluded.

    And yet the polls continue to show Labour with tiny leads, less than Miliband and Kinnock, and the likelihood of Tories who abstained because of the Tory campaign and policies against the old, voting in droves to stop Corbyn next time remains very high.

    I wonder what will happen when the next exit poll shocker in 2022 foretells a sound defeat for Corbyn.

    Keep dreaming.
    After everything that has happened in the last couple of years to buy the narrative that a Labour win is mailed on would be crazy. It may well happen and the Tories are doing their best to make it so, but every other narrative has been wrong so no reason to think this one can't be too.

    "a Labour win is mailed on"

    Indeed it is, with postal voting...

  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1.
    The most ridiculous lawsuit in years.
    Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted

    I thought his degree was in Modern History?
    Pff, if it happened less than 100 years ago, it ain't history.

    In other matters, Liverpoor reverting to type.
    No, Alberto Moreno reverting to type.
    And which team keeps playing him?

    He seems very decent moving forward, I don't know why he isn't just officially made a midfielder.
    He's been pretty good defensively this season
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 16,982
    Pong said:

    From 2011;

    America's top forensic scientist has warned that axing the UK's Forensic Science Service (FSS) will increase the risk of miscarriages of justice.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/csi-chief-condemns-forensic-cuts-2179744.html

    The tories have really screwed up the country.

    right

    so those 10000 forensic miscarriages of justice didnt happen ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    houndtang said:

    surbiton said:

    stevef said:

    I see the BBC with its documentary "Labour -the Summer that changed everything" -has bought into the Corbynista narrative that Corbyn is the great Messiah and moderates are the deluded.

    And yet the polls continue to show Labour with tiny leads, less than Miliband and Kinnock, and the likelihood of Tories who abstained because of the Tory campaign and policies against the old, voting in droves to stop Corbyn next time remains very high.

    I wonder what will happen when the next exit poll shocker in 2022 foretells a sound defeat for Corbyn.

    Keep dreaming.
    After everything that has happened in the last couple of years to buy the narrative that a Labour win is mailed on would be crazy. It may well happen and the Tories are doing their best to make it so, but every other narrative has been wrong so no reason to think this one can't be too.
    Have you read Nick Tyrone's Apocalypse Delayed?

    It loses its way halfway through, but in the opening chapters some of the comments are very interesting. Basically he suggested Labour benefited from an unexpected perfect storm for the Conservatives in 2017 and may get brutally hammered next time if they become complacent.

    I think he pitches it too strong, but certainly Labour are taking a great deal for granted and building a castle in the air based on an underwhelming poll position while literally shackled to a leader who is widely despised and/or actively hated.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 14,502
    edited November 2017

    @Big_G_NorthWales Thanks! To echo Nick Palmer’s statement you are one of the most amiable posters on this site. One of the good things about PB, is that you become much more open to reading and hearing out other views.

    It is to the credit of so many on this forum that genuine views can be aired, disagreed or agreed, and also the enormous expansion of your knowledge by hearing so many diverse views.

    Keeping an open mind is a wonderful attribute and difficult sometimes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    ydoethur said:

    houndtang said:

    surbiton said:

    stevef said:

    I see the BBC with its documentary "Labour -the Summer that changed everything" -has bought into the Corbynista narrative that Corbyn is the great Messiah and moderates are the deluded.

    And yet the polls continue to show Labour with tiny leads, less than Miliband and Kinnock, and the likelihood of Tories who abstained because of the Tory campaign and policies against the old, voting in droves to stop Corbyn next time remains very high.

    I wonder what will happen when the next exit poll shocker in 2022 foretells a sound defeat for Corbyn.

    Keep dreaming.
    After everything that has happened in the last couple of years to buy the narrative that a Labour win is mailed on would be crazy. It may well happen and the Tories are doing their best to make it so, but every other narrative has been wrong so no reason to think this one can't be too.
    Have you read Nick Tyrone's Apocalypse Delayed?

    It loses its way halfway through, but in the opening chapters some of the comments are very interesting. Basically he suggested Labour benefited from an unexpected perfect storm for the Conservatives in 2017 and may get brutally hammered next time if they become complacent.

    I think he pitches it too strong, but certainly Labour are taking a great deal for granted and building a castle in the air based on an underwhelming poll position while literally shackled to a leader who is widely despised and/or actively hated.
    I personally think things look very good for them despite that, but it is somewhat comical that what was still second place is treated with such acclaim because it was so unexpectedly good that the very good scenario next time is treated so hubristically.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 20,658
    edited November 2017

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I add my voice to those appreciating @NickPalmer's contributions to this site.

    This site benefits from having lots of very good contributors. Invidious to name them all. But I would mention Miss @The_Apocalypse who brings a very welcome and different perspective.

    A startled thanks from me - I missed the kind comments from Big G, Richard T and others on the last thread - thank you all.

    I like different posters for different things. Cyclefree for verve. Peter the Punter for integrity. Richard Tyndall for objectivity even when it doesn't suit his argument. Big G for amiability. another_richard for his repeated reminder that not all voters are ABs. kle4 for patient exposition. fox for being such a Corbyn tease - we'll actually get you to vote with us one day! TSE for fun. Most people, really - it's still an excellent site even though we all sometimes whinge.
    Can't believe you overlooked me, in terms of Vulgar Boasting. Is there anyone on the site who brings such a level of consistent, smug, odiously persistent gloating?

    Talking of which, I had a weird email the other day, from some obscure Canadian email addy. They said (I precis): we want to revive the Tom Knox brand, could he quickly write three short novels tying in with a huge immersive world we are building, including a movie, video game, podcasts, augmented reality etc, do you want to get involved?

    99% of the time these emails are total bullshit, and it's one guy in a bedsit in Winnipeg having a wet dream online.

    But I did a bit of googling, and discovered the company that sent the email are huge, and partly run by the guy that did Assassin's Creed. Yes, that one.

    Today we had a conference call, and I just had to pop the Q. I said "look, this is all fun and innovative, but I earn a lot of dosh as S K Tremayne now, so I would need a fee upfront, and it would have to be pretty healthy"

    They replied: "Well we can't quite do seven figures, but mid six figures? Half a million? Plus you get a cut of the overall profits."

    At this point the corpse of Tom Knox began to twitch: perhaps he isn't entirely dead after all.

    We shall see.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,582
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    houndtang said:

    surbiton said:

    stevef said:

    I see the BBC with its documentary "Labour -the Summer that changed everything" -has bought into the Corbynista narrative that Corbyn is the great Messiah and moderates are the deluded.

    And yet the polls continue to show Labour with tiny leads, less than Miliband and Kinnock, and the likelihood of Tories who abstained because of the Tory campaign and policies against the old, voting in droves to stop Corbyn next time remains very high.

    I wonder what will happen when the next exit poll shocker in 2022 foretells a sound defeat for Corbyn.

    Keep dreaming.
    After everything that has happened in the last couple of years to buy the narrative that a Labour win is mailed on would be crazy. It may well happen and the Tories are doing their best to make it so, but every other narrative has been wrong so no reason to think this one can't be too.
    Have you read Nick Tyrone's Apocalypse Delayed?

    It loses its way halfway through, but in the opening chapters some of the comments are very interesting. Basically he suggested Labour benefited from an unexpected perfect storm for the Conservatives in 2017 and may get brutally hammered next time if they become complacent.

    I think he pitches it too strong, but certainly Labour are taking a great deal for granted and building a castle in the air based on an underwhelming poll position while literally shackled to a leader who is widely despised and/or actively hated.
    I personally think things look very good for them despite that, but it is somewhat comical that what was still second place is treated with such acclaim because it was so unexpectedly good that the very good scenario next time is treated so hubristically.
    Hubris is very common. Now it's Labour. Six months ago it was the Tories. Go back three years and it was the Liberal Democrats. In 1950 it was Labour. In 1914 it was the Liberals. In 1905 it was the Unionists.

    Those who do not learn from History are doomed to repeat it, as I will spend my time reminding the head when the next timetable allocation comes up...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 42,691
    edited November 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1.
    The most ridiculous lawsuit in years.
    Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted

    He got a 2.1 in History from Oxford, a degree and class which many city solicitors and barristers have and which did not stop them doing a law conversion course and having successful careers even if they did not get a starred first and become top commercial silks or Supreme Court Judges.

    All he is going to be mainly remembered for now is suing for £1 million in one of the most absurd lawsuits in legal history, if he had actually knuckled down and realised you get out of life what you put in he may well have had a perfectly good career.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 45,038
    If the result VI was the same as last time, the Tories would regard it as a triumph and Corbyn would almost certainly be out I think
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,077
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.

    Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.

    Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
    I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
    Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,130
    edited November 2017
    I think a media go round is on the cards.

    Something that might happen (no insider knowledge):

    Sony buys Fox's media assets (including the 39% of Sky)
    Sony sells the 39% of Sky to Vodafone
    Vodafone buys up the remaining 61% of Sky and takes control of Sky UK/IRE, DE and IT.

    I know there is major enmity between Sony and Vodafone, but tbh, I doubt Sony will be interested in owning 39% of a fixed line provider and there are no other logical buyers.

    Reasons why Sony makes more sense than anyone else being touted:

    Trump is already clamping down on vertical monopolies (see TW/AT&T) if he blocks that merger then VZ or Charter would not be able to buy Fox's media assets, plus there is a sense that if they do it, they want the whole lot not just movies/TV production.

    Disney, the original party have expanded twice in recent years and there will be anti-trust concerns regarding their purchase of another movie/TV division.

    On the other hand, Sony are looking to buy, it's always been a case of sell the division or buy to expand, they are stuck in no man's land wrt to media assets at the moment.

    All in all, I think we're in for a interesting time over the next few years.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 22,421
    edited November 2017
    Latest polls:

    Theresa May's party: 42%
    Angela Merkel's party: 32%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 31,668
    SeanT said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Can I add my voice to those appreciating @NickPalmer's contributions to this site.

    This site benefits from having lots of very good contributors. Invidious to name them all. But I would mention Miss @The_Apocalypse who brings a very welcome and different perspective.

    A startled thanks from me - I missed the kind comments from Big G, Richard T and others on the last thread - thank you all.

    I like different posters for different things. Cyclefree for verve. Peter the Punter for integrity. Richard Tyndall for objectivity even when it doesn't suit his argument. Big G for amiability. another_richard for his repeated reminder that not all voters are ABs. kle4 for patient exposition. fox for being such a Corbyn tease - we'll actually get you to vote with us one day! TSE for fun. Most people, really - it's still an excellent site even though we all sometimes whinge.
    Can't believe you overlooked me, in terms of Vulgar Boasting. Is there anyone on the site who brings such a level of consistent, smug, odiously persistent gloating?

    Talking of which, I had a weird email the other day, from some obscure Canadian email addy. They said (I precis): we want to revive the Tom Knox brand, could he quickly write three short novels tying in with a huge immersive world we are building, including a movie, video game, podcasts, augmented reality etc, do you want to get involved?

    99% of the time these emails are total bullshit, and it's one guy in a bedsit in Winnipeg having a wet dream online.

    But I did a bit of googling, and discovered the company that sent the email are huge, and partly run by the guy that did Assassin's Creed. Yes, that one.

    Today we had a conference call, and I just had to pop the Q. I said "look, this is all fun and innovative, but I earn a lot of dosh as S K Tremayne now, so I would need a fee upfront, and it would have to be pretty healthy"

    They replied: "Well we can't quite do seven figures, but mid six figures? Half a million? Plus you get a cut of the overall profits."

    At this point the corpse of Tom Knox began to twitch: perhaps he isn't entirely dead after all.

    We shall see.
    Intriguing. Although considering the Assassin's Creed guys managed to turn a series which has some intriguing well told stories into such a woeful, woeful movie, it would be worth knowing how connected the guy was to it when it messed up, as it might speak to other ventures.
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