@Big_G_NorthWales Thanks! To echo Nick Palmer’s statement you are one of the most amiable posters on this site. One of the good things about PB, is that you become much more open to reading and hearing out other views.
It is to the credit of so many on this forum that genuine views can be aired, disagreed or agreed, and also the enormous expansion of your knowledge by hearing so many diverse views.
Keeping an open mind is a wonderful attribute and difficult sometimes
"On the Danger of being Liberal" by Quintin Hogg:
He kept an open mind so long That everything fell out! And true, And false Were scrambled into doubt.
Can I add my voice to those appreciating @NickPalmer's contributions to this site.
This site benefits from having lots of very good contributors. Invidious to name them all. But I would mention Miss @The_Apocalypse who brings a very welcome and different perspective.
A startled thanks from me - I missed the kind comments from Big G, Richard T and others on the last thread - thank you all.
I like different posters for different things. Cyclefree for verve. Peter the Punter for integrity. Richard Tyndall for objectivity even when it doesn't suit his argument. Big G for amiability. another_richard for his repeated reminder that not all voters are ABs. kle4 for patient exposition. fox for being such a Corbyn tease - we'll actually get you to vote with us one day! TSE for fun. Most people, really - it's still an excellent site even though we all sometimes whinge.
Can't believe you overlooked me, in terms of Vulgar Boasting. Is there anyone on the site who brings such a level of consistent, smug, odiously persistent gloating?
Talking of which, I had a weird email the other day, from some obscure Canadian email addy. They said (I precis): we want to revive the Tom Knox brand, could he quickly write three short novels tying in with a huge immersive world we are building, including a movie, video game, podcasts, augmented reality etc, do you want to get involved?
99% of the time these emails are total bullshit, and it's one guy in a bedsit in Winnipeg having a wet dream online.
But I did a bit of googling, and discovered the company that sent the email are huge, and partly run by the guy that did Assassin's Creed. Yes, that one.
Today we had a conference call, and I just had to pop the Q. I said "look, this is all fun and innovative, but I earn a lot of dosh as S K Tremayne now, so I would need a fee upfront, and it would have to be pretty healthy"
They replied: "Well we can't quite do seven figures, but mid six figures? Half a million? Plus you get a cut of the overall profits."
At this point the corpse of Tom Knox began to twitch: perhaps he isn't entirely dead after all.
We shall see.
Yves Guillemot?
Interesting guy.
Make sure you don't end up like Andrzej Sapkowski (author of the Witcher book series). Take less money up front and increase your royalty cut.
Also, retain some level of control of the story. Final cut rights and make sure any derivative work needs approval and you get a higher cut.
Report tonight from one of her colleagues that she may have to stand down but no doubt all kind of rumours will abound
On the EU reports tonight Italy and especially Milan are spitting feathers over the handling of the EMA award depriving them of a huge source of income and threats to withhold monies from the EU to compensate them.
TSE might protest, but tonight's result shows how little Liverpool have progressed in years - no backbone, no ability to deal with pressure despite having been bossing proceedings. As fragile as as a particularly weak meringue on a bouncy castle covered in concrete slabs.
Off topic Can't wait to read the judges summary on that utter twerp who is sueing because he got a 2:1. The most ridiculous lawsuit in years. Amusing his degree was in law too... Hopefully he'll be ripped to shreds and bankrupted
He got a 2.1 in History from Oxford, a degree and class which many city solicitors and barristers have and which did not stop them doing a law conversion course and having successful careers even if they did not get a starred first and become top commercial silks or Supreme Court Judges.
All he is going to be mainly remembered for now is suing for £1 million in one of the most absurd lawsuits in legal history, if he had actually knuckled down and realised you get out of life what you put in he may well have had a perfectly good career.
Confession: no one in my career has ever asked me (with any seriousness) what degree I studied, let alone what degree I got. A couple have vaguely asked what Uni I attended (UCL) but I'm not sure it had any bearing on my prospects.
I know many other professions are different, but in journalism/creative writing your degree, or lack of, is UTTERLY irrelevant.
What my degree DID do is educate me, socially, and introduce me to the right people, and get me attuned to London life. For that, a BA in Philosophy at UCL was brilliant.
Yes, once you have had your first graduate job nobody cares about your degree and university they care about your experience and what you have achived in your last job.
As you say if you are a journalist or novelist you live off good writing whether you got a first from Cambridge or are a graduate of the university of life.
I am sure a BA in Philosophy added to what you could bring to London parties and dinner parties though certainly.
I've been thinking long and hard about who should be poster of the year, and I think it's pretty obvious.
This person is personally charming, and unfailingly polite on-line. His posts bring light where there was previously only heat. He is insightful, intelligent, and modest. His betting tips have been unfailingly profitable and his musical taste is unsurpassed.
And he is, in short, me.
rcs1000 for POTY. You know it makes sense. (And anyone who suggests otherwise is going to get banned.)
Putin 99.9 % ? (stage direction: read this in a crescendo on a rising note as in "What me worry?" or "I should apologize?") I don't suppose there's any way we could alter those odds by fiddling Twitter is there?
Can I add my voice to those appreciating @NickPalmer's contributions to this site.
This site benefits from having lots of very good contributors. Invidious to name them all. But I would mention Miss @The_Apocalypse who brings a very welcome and different perspective.
A startled thanks from me - I missed the kind comments from Big G, Richard T and others on the last thread - thank you all.
I like different posters for different things. Cyclefree for verve. Peter the Punter for integrity. Richard Tyndall for objectivity even when it doesn't suit his argument. Big G for amiability. another_richard for his repeated reminder that not all voters are ABs. kle4 for patient exposition. fox for being such a Corbyn tease - we'll actually get you to vote with us one day! TSE for fun. Most people, really - it's still an excellent site even though we all sometimes whinge.
Can't believe yo
Today we had a conference call, and I just had to pop the Q. I said "look, this is all fun and innovative, but I earn a lot of dosh as S K Tremayne now, so I would need a fee upfront, and it would have to be pretty healthy"
They replied: "Well we can't quite do seven figures, but mid six figures? Half a million? Plus you get a cut of the overall profits."
At this point the corpse of Tom Knox began to twitch: perhaps he isn't entirely dead after all.
We shall see.
Yves Guillemot?
Interesting guy.
Make sure you don't end up like Andrzej Sapkowski (author of the Witcher book series). Take less money up front and increase your royalty cut.
Also, retain some level of control of the story. Final cut rights and make sure any derivative work needs approval and you get a higher cut.
Finally, the money is in TV shows, not movies.
If they give me half a million bucks for about 6 months work I'll be happy, whatever. But yeah, my agent is on the case re the royalties.
None of this is signed yet, and these things usually fall through, but still. It's nice to know Tom Knox is remembered. Another interesting thing: they admitted I wasn't the first guy they approached. There was some other Da Vinci Code ish writer on their list (maybe Dan Brown himself?), but he wanted over a million upfront immediately. That was too heady, even for them
Human creativity, if you can make it commercial, is now very richly rewarded. I think this is actually a function of more functional jobs (which can be automated) being LESS well rewarded, as the computers take over
We probably haven't made a computer than can write interestingly about trips to the Rift Valley yet. But when we do...
If they give me half a million bucks for about 6 months work I'll be happy, whatever. But yeah, my agent is on the case re the royalties.
None of this is signed yet, and these things usually fall through, but still. It's nice to know Tom Knox is remembered. Another interesting thing: they admitted I wasn't the first guy they approached. There was some other Da Vinci Code ish writer on their list (maybe Dan Brown himself?), but he wanted over a million upfront immediately. That was too heady, even for them
Human creativity, if you can make it commercial, is now very richly rewarded. I think this is actually a function of more functional jobs (which can be automated) being LESS well rewarded, as the computers take over
"There was some other Da Vinci Code ish writer on their list"
Can I add my voice to those appreciating @NickPalmer's contributions to this site.
This site benefits from having lots of very good contributors. Invidious to name them all. But I would mention Miss @The_Apocalypse who brings a very welcome and different perspective.
A startled thanks from me - I missed the kind comments from Big G, Richard T and others on the last thread - thank you all.
I like different posters for different things. Cyclefree for verve. Peter the Punter for integrity. Richard Tyndall for objectivity even when it doesn't suit his argument. Big G for amiability. another_richard for his repeated reminder that not all voters are ABs. kle4 for patient exposition. fox for being such a Corbyn tease - we'll actually get you to vote with us one day! TSE for fun. Most people, really - it's still an excellent site even though we all sometimes whinge.
Can't believe yo
Today we had a conference call, and I just had to pop the Q. I said "look, this is all fun and innovative, but I earn a lot of dosh as S K Tremayne now, so I would need a fee upfront, and it would have to be pretty healthy"
They replied: "Well we can't quite do seven figures, but mid six figures? Half a million? Plus you get a cut of the overall profits."
At this point the corpse of Tom Knox began to twitch: perhaps he isn't entirely dead after all.
We shall see.
Yves Guillemot?
Interesting guy.
Make sure you don't end up like Andrzej Sapkowski (author of the Witcher book series). Take less money up front and increase your royalty cut.
Also, retain some level of control of the story. Final cut rights and make sure any derivative work needs approval and you get a higher cut.
Finally, the money is in TV shows, not movies.
If they give me half a million bucks for about 6 months work I'll be happy, whatever. But yeah, my agent is on the case re the royalties.
None of this is signed yet, and these things usually fall through, but still. It's nice to know Tom Knox is remembered. Another interesting thing: they admitted I wasn't the first guy they approached. There was some other Da Vinci Code ish writer on their list (maybe Dan Brown himself?), but he wanted over a million upfront immediately. That was too heady, even for them
Human creativity, if you can make it commercial, is now very richly rewarded. I think this is actually a function of more functional jobs (which can be automated) being LESS well rewarded, as the computers take over
Congrats.
I am surprised though at how cheap books are these days.
If they give me half a million bucks for about 6 months work I'll be happy, whatever. But yeah, my agent is on the case re the royalties.
None of this is signed yet, and these things usually fall through, but still. It's nice to know Tom Knox is remembered. Another interesting thing: they admitted I wasn't the first guy they approached. There was some other Da Vinci Code ish writer on their list (maybe Dan Brown himself?), but he wanted over a million upfront immediately. That was too heady, even for them
Human creativity, if you can make it commercial, is now very richly rewarded. I think this is actually a function of more functional jobs (which can be automated) being LESS well rewarded, as the computers take over
It's a tough one, I've read the books and I guess they are going to make an Uncharted clone in terms of the game and an Indiana Jones clone if they make movies. I think they are probably better for game adaptation than the Dan Brown novels.
I'm guessing it will be a Ubisoft publication. Now that AC has moved to a biennial release schedule, I'm guessing they want a similar sort of title to fill the gap that AC has left behind, and Prince of Persia is a dead franchise.
As someone who works in a functional job, I can assure you that the rewards in these positions are still high enough.
Personally I think POTY of the year should be someone who warned PB and the world that Mrs May was not Thatcher Mark II but more of a pound shop Gordon Brown, even when the Tories had a 25% lead.
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU, serious, public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Corbyn tapped into some genuine problems re housing and student debt.
Until those are resolved the Conservatives have an open wound.
Personally I think POTY of the year should be someone who warned PB and the world that Mrs May was not Thatcher Mark II but more of a pound shop Gordon Brown, even when the Tories had a 25% lead.
No, it should be someone who, on the night the Dementia Tax was revealed, said it would be a disaster for the party and result in us not getting a big majority.
Personally I think POTY of the year should be someone who warned PB and the world that Mrs May was not Thatcher Mark II but more of a pound shop Gordon Brown, even when the Tories had a 25% lead.
Maybe so, but I don't recall anyone doing such a thing, we would have remembered.
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU serious public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
Tbe introduction of a rail ticket for 26 - 30 was very well received on the media interviews with young people. One third off their rail fares is very welcome
Personally I think POTY of the year should be someone who warned PB and the world that Mrs May was not Thatcher Mark II but more of a pound shop Gordon Brown, even when the Tories had a 25% lead.
May June 2017 41% and 318 seats
Brown May 2010 29% and 258 seats
May might be a pound shop John Major but she is not a pound shop Gordon Brown.
Haven't seen if anyone else has said so, but David Herdson for the post about his canvassing on the eve of GE17. It was dismissed as rank bedwettery at the time but captured precisely, in four paras, what the story of the election was going to be in 36 hours' time.
Can I add my voice to those appreciating @NickPalmer's contributions to this site.
This site benefits from having lots of very good contributors. Invidious to name them all. But I would mention Miss @The_Apocalypse who brings a very welcome and different perspective.
A startled thanks from me - I missed the kind comments from Big G, Richard T and others on the last thread - thank you all.
I like different posters for different things. Cyclefree for verve. Peter the Punter for integrity. Richard Tyndall for objectivity even when it doesn't suit his argument. Big G for amiability. another_richard for his repeated reminder that not all voters are ABs. kle4 for patient exposition. fox for being such a Corbyn tease - we'll actually get you to vote with us one day! TSE for fun. Most people, really - it's still an excellent site even though we all sometimes whinge.
Can't believe yo
Today we had a conference call, and I just had to pop the Q. I said "look, this is all fun and innovative, but I earn a lot of dosh as S K Tremayne now, so I would need a fee upfront, and it would have to be pretty healthy"
They replied: "Well we can't quite do seven figures, but mid six figures? Half a million? Plus you get a cut of the overall profits."
At this point the corpse of Tom Knox began to twitch: perhaps he isn't entirely dead after all.
We shall see.
Yves Guillemot?
Interesting guy.
Make sure you don't end up like Andrzej Sapkowski (author of the Witcher book series). Take less money up front and increase your royalty cut.
Also, retain some level of control of the story. Final cut rights and make sure any derivative work needs approval and you get a higher cut.
Finally, the money is in TV shows, not movies.
If they givctional jobs (which can be automated) being LESS well rewarded, as the computers take over
Congrats.
I am surprised though at how cheap books are these days.
And how anyone makes a profit selling them.
Me too, mate, me too
But people ALWAYS want a story. And stories are weirdly hard to tell interestingly well, it seems. Like singing Wagner arias, maybe.
For entertainment per cost books are incredible value.
But YouTube is even better.
I do wonder how we managed when books were much more expensive and there was only three TV channels.
Well the budget's going to be a disaster, hopefully it will see the end of Mrs May and Mr Hammond.
I thought you were favourable towards Hammond, the David Moyes of politics.
I am, but I think the loony Brexiteers have destroyed his confidence.
Like the Catholic church's doctrine that the sun went round the earth and forcing Galileo to recant, and comparing it with John Redwood's insistence that the Hammond come out with more Brexit-friendly figures.
Shouldn't it say "There is no solution acceptable to Brussels that will satisfy IRE and UK"? A free trade deal would result in no need for a hard border, but Brussels won't accept it.
Shouldn't it say "There is no solution acceptable to Brussels that will satisfy IRE and UK"? A free trade deal would result in no need for a hard border, but Brussels won't accept it.
Haven't seen if anyone else has said so, but David Herdson for the post about his canvassing on the eve of GE17. It was dismissed as rank bedwettery at the time but captured precisely, in four paras, what the story of the election was going to be in 36 hours' time.
Indeed. That was actually an electrifying moment, with, as I recall, people ringing around to confirm that David Herdson's account hadn't been hacked. Gripping stuff!
Two weeks ago Merkel was voted the most influencial woman in the World and TM runner up
You know what I am going to say next .................
Yes, if Merkel goes soon May will be the most powerful woman in the world according to Forbes, you would not have thought that would happen in 2018 in June.
Haven't seen if anyone else has said so, but David Herdson for the post about his canvassing on the eve of GE17. It was dismissed as rank bedwettery at the time but captured precisely, in four paras, what the story of the election was going to be in 36 hours' time.
Well the budget's going to be a disaster, hopefully it will see the end of Mrs May and Mr Hammond.
I thought you were favourable towards Hammond, the David Moyes of politics.
I am, but I think the loony Brexiteers have destroyed his confidence.
Like the Catholic church's doctrine that the sun went round the earth and forcing Galileo to recant, and comparing it with John Redwood's insistence that the Hammond come out with more Brexit-friendly figures.
I think his problem is that he is bereft of any kind of imagination and appears to be anhedonic. He seems to just plod along pointing out the bleeding obvious hoping that people won't notice that he's not preparing the economy for "no deal" Brexit which he should be.
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU, serious, public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
I think the under 40s would stick with Corbyn regardless so a landslide is out of the question but if the Tories can win back 40s to 50s and increase their lead with 50 to 60s they could win a small majority.
Well the budget's going to be a disaster, hopefully it will see the end of Mrs May and Mr Hammond.
I thought you were favourable towards Hammond, the David Moyes of politics.
I am, but I think the loony Brexiteers have destroyed his confidence.
Like the Catholic church's doctrine that the sun went round the earth and forcing Galileo to recant, and comparing it with John Redwood's insistence that the Hammond come out with more Brexit-friendly figures.
Hammond has always been an empty shell - he's the Tory equivalent of Alan Johnson.
Haven't seen if anyone else has said so, but David Herdson for the post about his canvassing on the eve of GE17. It was dismissed as rank bedwettery at the time but captured precisely, in four paras, what the story of the election was going to be in 36 hours' time.
It was a good post (not to belittle it but many people found the same thing but their local associations had asked members not to discuss the campaign on social media, such as me and mine!!)
But @RochdalePioneers got the campaign perfectly in his/her post which reposted subsequently once and have kept for future reference.
Edit: and posts since have been equally prescient and enjoyable to read.
Haven't seen if anyone else has said so, but David Herdson for the post about his canvassing on the eve of GE17. It was dismissed as rank bedwettery at the time but captured precisely, in four paras, what the story of the election was going to be in 36 hours' time.
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU, serious, public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
Haven't seen if anyone else has said so, but David Herdson for the post about his canvassing on the eve of GE17. It was dismissed as rank bedwettery at the time but captured precisely, in four paras, what the story of the election was going to be in 36 hours' time.
It was a goods post (not to belittle it but many people found the same thing but their local associations had asked members not to discuss the campaign on social media, such as me and mine!!) but @RochdalePioneers got the campaign perfectly in his/her post which reposted subsequently once and have kept for future reference.
Well they weren't mentioning it to JackW and his team of 'experts'.
Haven't seen if anyone else has said so, but David Herdson for the post about his canvassing on the eve of GE17. It was dismissed as rank bedwettery at the time but captured precisely, in four paras, what the story of the election was going to be in 36 hours' time.
Well the budget's going to be a disaster, hopefully it will see the end of Mrs May and Mr Hammond.
I thought you were favourable towards Hammond, the David Moyes of politics.
I am, but I think the loony Brexiteers have destroyed his confidence.
Like the Catholic church's doctrine that the sun went round the earth and forcing Galileo to recant, and comparing it with John Redwood's insistence that the Hammond come out with more Brexit-friendly figures.
Hammond has always been an empty shell - he's the Tory equivalent of Alan Johnson.
I disagree, here's actually listened to one of my suggestions.
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU, serious, public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
How many times can one poster underestimate Jezza
Three times. His election. His survival. His General Election
After that, nah. You can sense the Corbymania draining away. Sorry
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU, serious, public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
How many times can one poster underestimate Jezza
Three times. His election. His survival. His General Election
After that, nah. You can sense the Corbymania draining away. Sorry
Jeremy Corbyn is a Poundshop Santa Claus.
There comes a point at which it is really, really embarrassing to tell your mates you still believe in him.
Well the budget's going to be a disaster, hopefully it will see the end of Mrs May and Mr Hammond.
I thought you were favourable towards Hammond, the David Moyes of politics.
I am, but I think the loony Brexiteers have destroyed his confidence.
Like the Catholic church's doctrine that the sun went round the earth and forcing Galileo to recant, and comparing it with John Redwood's insistence that the Hammond come out with more Brexit-friendly figures.
Hammond has always been an empty shell - he's the Tory equivalent of Alan Johnson.
I disagree, here's actually listened to one of my suggestions.
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU, serious, public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
How many times can one poster underestimate Jezza
Three times. His election. His survival. His General Election
After that, nah. You can sense the Corbymania draining away. Sorry
It would make sense as these manias tend to last only a few months, just long enough for their followers to plan for their world conquests:
2007 Brown 2008 Cameron 2010 Clegg 2012 Miliband 2015 Osborne 2016 May 2017 Corbyn
Shouldn't it say "There is no solution acceptable to Brussels that will satisfy IRE and UK"? A free trade deal would result in no need for a hard border, but Brussels won't accept it.
I am no doubt being a bit dumb here (again!) but if Ireland scupper a deal because of a hard border won't that inevitably lead to a, er... hard border?
Haven't seen if anyone else has said so, but David Herdson for the post about his canvassing on the eve of GE17. It was dismissed as rank bedwettery at the time but captured precisely, in four paras, what the story of the election was going to be in 36 hours' time.
It was a goods post (not to belittle it but many people found the same thing but their local associations had asked members not to discuss the campaign on social media, such as me and mine!!) but @RochdalePioneers got the campaign perfectly in his/her post which reposted subsequently once and have kept for future reference.
Well they weren't mentioning it to JackW and his team of 'experts'.
It was incredibly patchy though. We thought we were doing quite well in Torbay. In the end we were doing gang-busters.
On Corbyn, I think the moment his support starting waning was when he stepped back from the student debt write off. Whether or not he made a promise, stepping back from something that fired up so many people and got them to the polls has hurt him. To a few of my friends who voted for Corbyn that turned him into "just another politician" who just said what he had to so he could win votes in the run up to the election.
Shouldn't it say "There is no solution acceptable to Brussels that will satisfy IRE and UK"? A free trade deal would result in no need for a hard border, but Brussels won't accept it.
I am no doubt being a bit dumb here (again!) but if Ireland scupper a deal because of a hard border won't that inevitably lead to a, er... hard border?
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU, serious, public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
How many times can one poster underestimate Jezza
Three times. His election. His survival. His General Election
After that, nah. You can sense the Corbymania draining away. Sorry
Keep dreaming the dream pal!
The very thing most likely to make Jezza PM after the next election is Tory disbelief that it could be possible.
On Corbyn, I think the moment his support starting waning was when he stepped back from the student debt write off. Whether or not he made a promise, stepping back from something that fired up so many people and got them to the polls has hurt him. To a few of my friends who voted for Corbyn that turned him into "just another politician" who just said what he had to so he could win votes in the run up to the election.
I've not noticed much outrage from people about that though - I think he can count on that support still in very large numbers.
Shouldn't it say "There is no solution acceptable to Brussels that will satisfy IRE and UK"? A free trade deal would result in no need for a hard border, but Brussels won't accept it.
I am no doubt being a bit dumb here (again!) but if Ireland scupper a deal because of a hard border won't that inevitably lead to a, er... hard border?
No, that is the stance. If, as it seems, the EU is willing to accept the £40bn offer from the government then one does wonder why the Irish are talking about scuppering the deal.
Well the budget's going to be a disaster, hopefully it will see the end of Mrs May and Mr Hammond.
I thought you were favourable towards Hammond, the David Moyes of politics.
I am, but I think the loony Brexiteers have destroyed his confidence.
Like the Catholic church's doctrine that the sun went round the earth and forcing Galileo to recant, and comparing it with John Redwood's insistence that the Hammond come out with more Brexit-friendly figures.
Hammond has always been an empty shell - he's the Tory equivalent of Alan Johnson.
I disagree, here's actually listened to one of my suggestions.
People would prefer to have Corbyn as a neighbour but think May would be better at organising a barbeque.
I don't think that Theresa May would be terribly good at organising a barbeque (not enough booze for a start), but Corbyn would surely be a nightmare as a neighbour - you'd be kept awake by various South American ex-revolutionaries turning up at all hours, demos forming up outside the front door on Sunday mornings, and groups of primary-school children being taught to sing Kumbaya.
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
How many times can one poster underestimate Jezza
Three times. His election. His survival. His General Election
After that, nah. You can sense the Corbymania draining away. Sorry
Jeremy Corbyn is a Poundshop Santa Claus.
There comes a point at which it is really, really embarrassing to tell your mates you still believe in him.
Nope. That you say that, suggests that the Conservative Party really don’t get young people. Well, we knew that before and during the election, but the confidence in which some Conservatives make these kind of statements suggests they are unaware of this.
Corbyn may not be converting many more new converts to cause atm, but there is no evidence to suggest that those who voted for him are no longer believing.
Do you know who it is really embarrassing to tell your mates who you support? Theresa May and the Conservative Party....
On Corbyn, I think the moment his support starting waning was when he stepped back from the student debt write off. Whether or not he made a promise, stepping back from something that fired up so many people and got them to the polls has hurt him. To a few of my friends who voted for Corbyn that turned him into "just another politician" who just said what he had to so he could win votes in the run up to the election.
I've not noticed much outrage from people about that though - I think he can count on that support still in very large numbers.
Not outrage, just resignation that their hero is just like every other politician.
Haven't seen if anyone else has said so, but David Herdson for the post about his canvassing on the eve of GE17. It was dismissed as rank bedwettery at the time but captured precisely, in four paras, what the story of the election was going to be in 36 hours' time.
It was a goods post (not to belittle it but many people found the same thing but their local associations had asked members not to discuss the campaign on social media, such as me and mine!!) but @RochdalePioneers got the campaign perfectly in his/her post which reposted subsequently once and have kept for future reference.
Well they weren't mentioning it to JackW and his team of 'experts'.
It was incredibly patchy though. We thought we were doing quite well in Torbay. In the end we were doing gang-busters.
It was one of those elections where it was nigh on impossible to see the national picture from local impressions. Dorset looked good, and similarly was great for us Blues. Ditto some of the Midlands seats, but others, especially in Brum itself, not so much....
It's just been mentioned to me on twitter that the Kantar poll has an effective turnout for the 18-24 age range of 24% (it's only 19% if Won't Says are included), which hugely down-rates the VIs for that group. (I've checked and the observation is right).
That seems a laughably low turnout figure and, as such, not only would I be sceptical about the headline figures because of that one feature, I'd be sceptical about the whole poll.
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU, serious, public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
How many times can one poster underestimate Jezza
Corbyn is utter marmite, I'm no fan of May or her authoritarian tendencies, but if the devil himself assumed leadership of the Conservative Party and was caught on tape admitting his out-of-office pastimes included torturing cute kittens and rogering young boys, I would still vote for him if it meant keeping Corbyn and his hard left associates out of power.
Elections are more usually won when large numbers of your opponents abstain from voting rather than convert to your cause, I can't see many Tories converting to Corbynism and I can't see many abstaining when the choice is facing a hard left government led by Corbyn's front bench.
Blair was so successful because he convinced middle England he wasn't a threat to them and clothed his social democratic policies in the language of aspiration, Corbyn offers no such illusions.
Even facing the most incompetent Tory campaign in recent memory, up against a manifesto that was little more than a raspberry in the face of the core Tory vote, against a country bitterly divided on Brexit and with many people seeing a vote for Labour as a 'free hit' against the government as Corbyn couldn't possibly win, he still couldn't get over the finishing line.
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU, serious, public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
How many times can one poster underestimate Jezza
Three times. His election. His survival. His General Election
After that, nah. You can sense the Corbymania draining away. Sorry
Jeremy Corbyn is a Poundshop Santa Claus.
There comes a point at which it is really, really embarrassing to tell your mates you still believe in him.
Depends on who your mates are probably. Plus, Labour will pick up many votes from people who are not Corbymaniacs but who just want rid of the Tories IMO (and yes, I'm one of them!)
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU, serious, public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
How many times can one poster underestimate Jezza
I can’t believe more Tories aren’t alarmed by the fact that in a so called small c conservative country someone who they believe to be a Marxist is even polling 40%+.
It's just been mentioned to me on twitter that the Kantar poll has an effective turnout for the 18-24 age range of 24% (it's only 19% if Won't Says are included), which hugely down-rates the VIs for that group. (I've checked and the observation is right).
That seems a laughably low turnout figure and, as such, not only would I be sceptical about the headline figures because of that one feature, I'd be sceptical about the whole poll.
It's a very good point David - Labour's chances of success next time hinge heavily on how successful they are at mobilising the under 25 vote. Based on last time, I'd expect them to be very successful.
I can’t believe more Tories aren’t alarmed by the fact that in a so called small c conservative country someone who they believe to be a Marxist is even polling 40%+.
Well its like the fools who think everyone who voted Leave is a racist then blame specific individuals or parties for causing Leave, when i'd think that 52% of the country are racist would be the more concerning part.
On Corbyn, I think the moment his support starting waning was when he stepped back from the student debt write off. Whether or not he made a promise, stepping back from something that fired up so many people and got them to the polls has hurt him. To a few of my friends who voted for Corbyn that turned him into "just another politician" who just said what he had to so he could win votes in the run up to the election.
I've not noticed much outrage from people about that though - I think he can count on that support still in very large numbers.
Not outrage, just resignation that their hero is just like every other politician.
Can't say I've seen much of that personally, and even if it is happening all it will do is make the Labour advantage with the young slightly less, maybe, which will only save the Tories if they sustain their position. Which is possible, but it would be so touch and go.
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
My bellwether Mum is now a reluctant TMay supporter (after utterly losing faith in her during the election). "She's doing her best in a bloody difficult job". My Mum (who also voted Blair in his peak) yearns for Maggie, but sees TMay as the best of a bloody mediocre lot.
As for Corbyn, amongst my younger friends I sense the onset of total boredom. He didn't win, he really is just an old guy in a vest, who gives a fuck, maybe he is as shit as they say.
The Tories just need to cling on to power, then get a decent leader post-Brexit in 2019, and they could still romp home in 2022. This depends on Brexit not being an apocalypse, of course.
Yes, having dumped the dementia tax and decided to build more homes and give public sector workers a pay rise and make an effort to get a FTA with the EU, serious, public service appealing May is back rather than the unappealing, dictatorial May who appeared in the general election campaign and was swiftly cut back down to size by the voters.
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
How many times can one poster underestimate Jezza
I can’t believe more Tories aren’t alarmed by the fact that in a so called small c conservative country someone who they believe to be a Marxist is even polling 40%+.
Pah! Attlee got 47% in 1945 on a pretty socialist manifesto
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
How many times can one poster underestimate Jezza
Three times. His election. His survival. His General Election
After that, nah. You can sense the Corbymania draining away. Sorry
Jeremy Corbyn is a Poundshop Santa Claus.
There comes a point at which it is really, really embarrassing to tell your mates you still believe in him.
Nope. That you say that, suggests that the Conservative Party really don’t get young people. Well, we knew that before and during the election, but the confidence in which some Conservatives make these kind of statements suggests they are unaware of this.
Corbyn may not be converting many more new converts to cause atm, but there is no evidence to suggest that those who voted for him are no longer believing.
Do you know who it is really embarrassing to tell your mates who you support? Theresa May and the Conservative Party....
It's just been mentioned to me on twitter that the Kantar poll has an effective turnout for the 18-24 age range of 24% (it's only 19% if Won't Says are included), which hugely down-rates the VIs for that group. (I've checked and the observation is right).
That seems a laughably low turnout figure and, as such, not only would I be sceptical about the headline figures because of that one feature, I'd be sceptical about the whole poll.
It's a very good point David - Labour's chances of success next time hinge heavily on how successful they are at mobilising the under 25 vote. Based on last time, I'd expect them to be very successful.
But should it be based on last time is the question? I think the the reasons they did so well last time will, by and large, still apply and so they should still do well, but that is not guaranteed - Labour are treading a fine line at times, trying to appear different things to different people and succeeding, but it is possible, for instance, that when they imply they will eliminate student debt while saying something else, next time fewer will be enthused by thinking the former.
It's just been mentioned to me on twitter that the Kantar poll has an effective turnout for the 18-24 age range of 24% (it's only 19% if Won't Says are included), which hugely down-rates the VIs for that group. (I've checked and the observation is right).
That seems a laughably low turnout figure and, as such, not only would I be sceptical about the headline figures because of that one feature, I'd be sceptical about the whole poll.
Even if all voters are included (ie not adjusted for turnout) the Tories would still be slightly ahead on seats with Kantar.
On Corbyn, I think the moment his support starting waning was when he stepped back from the student debt write off. Whether or not he made a promise, stepping back from something that fired up so many people and got them to the polls has hurt him. To a few of my friends who voted for Corbyn that turned him into "just another politician" who just said what he had to so he could win votes in the run up to the election.
The thing about shiny new Corbyn was that really, when you get down to it, he's a VERY old school cynical politician - selling people the notion he would deliver stuff he knew he could never actually deliver. Oldest trick in the politicians book.
It's just been mentioned to me on twitter that the Kantar poll has an effective turnout for the 18-24 age range of 24% (it's only 19% if Won't Says are included), which hugely down-rates the VIs for that group. (I've checked and the observation is right).
That seems a laughably low turnout figure and, as such, not only would I be sceptical about the headline figures because of that one feature, I'd be sceptical about the whole poll.
It's a very good point David - Labour's chances of success next time hinge heavily on how successful they are at mobilising the under 25 vote. Based on last time, I'd expect them to be very successful.
I wouldn't. It was a one-off, post Sindyref, post-Brexit. Next time, voting will be down, again, and the young will be too stoned on meow-meow version 7 to notice the time of day.
That's fine then - you can relax... The Tories will be able to continue their abysmal record of failing to run the country.
I can’t believe more Tories aren’t alarmed by the fact that in a so called small c conservative country someone who they believe to be a Marxist is even polling 40%+.
Why do you say that? All the Tories I know, which is quite a lot, are absolutely horrified by the point you make.
That Kantar turnout adjusted poll would give the Tories an overall majority on 233 seats to 248 for Labour and 14 for the LDs.
Even just taking the figures for all voters the Tories would still be the largest party on 297 seats to 283 for Labour.
Don't give Kim Jong May ideas....
I highly doubt she would even consider it but an astonishingly good poll for the Tories given the last few weeks nonetheless.
Have we seen Peak Corbyn?
Maybe not quite Peak Corbyn but he is certainly nearing the summit and it will be all downhill from there
If Corbyn clings on and the Tories have a papabile new leader with a decent manifesto then the Tories would utterly crush Labour.
How many times can one poster underestimate Jezza
Three times. His election. His survival. His General Election
After that, nah. You can sense the Corbymania draining away. Sorry
Jeremy Corbyn is a Poundshop Santa Claus.
There comes a point at which it is really, really embarrassing to tell your mates you still believe in him.
Nope. That you say that, suggests that the Conservative Party really don’t get young people. Well, we knew that before and during the election, but the confidence in which some Conservatives make these kind of statements suggests they are unaware of this.
Corbyn may not be converting many more new converts to cause atm, but there is no evidence to suggest that those who voted for him are no longer believing.
Do you know who it is really embarrassing to tell your mates who you support? Theresa May and the Conservative Party....
+1 Well put!
Not if you are a pensioner, they are still big fans of May.
It is students for Corbyn, pensioners for May but the middle aged who will decide the next general election.
It's just been mentioned to me on twitter that the Kantar poll has an effective turnout for the 18-24 age range of 24% (it's only 19% if Won't Says are included), which hugely down-rates the VIs for that group. (I've checked and the observation is right).
That seems a laughably low turnout figure and, as such, not only would I be sceptical about the headline figures because of that one feature, I'd be sceptical about the whole poll.
It's a very good point David - Labour's chances of success next time hinge heavily on how successful they are at mobilising the under 25 vote. Based on last time, I'd expect them to be very successful.
I wouldn't. It was a one-off, post Sindyref, post-Brexit. Next time, voting will be down, again, and the young will be too stoned on meow-meow version 7 to notice the time of day.
It's curious how certain posters are winding themselves up about peak Corbyn Nothing like a bit of self denial to stop you asking difficult questions.
We have no idea how Corbyn will play in years ahead. None.
The very same posters were debating the size of Tory majority on polling day.
Learn.
These would be the same chicken counting folk who have been disbelieving polls now enraptured by one that puts Jezza in a stronger position than their eve of poll poll.
Comments
He kept an open mind so long
That everything fell out!
And true,
And false
Were scrambled into doubt.
Interesting guy.
Make sure you don't end up like Andrzej Sapkowski (author of the Witcher book series). Take less money up front and increase your royalty cut.
Also, retain some level of control of the story. Final cut rights and make sure any derivative work needs approval and you get a higher cut.
Finally, the money is in TV shows, not movies.
On the EU reports tonight Italy and especially Milan are spitting feathers over the handling of the EMA award depriving them of a huge source of income and threats to withhold monies from the EU to compensate them.
As you say if you are a journalist or novelist you live off good writing whether you got a first from Cambridge or are a graduate of the university of life.
I am sure a BA in Philosophy added to what you could bring to London parties and dinner parties though certainly.
I don't suppose there's any way we could alter those odds by fiddling Twitter is there?
@RochdalePioneers
Scott Mariani?
I am surprised though at how cheap books are these days.
And how anyone makes a profit selling them.
I'm guessing it will be a Ubisoft publication. Now that AC has moved to a biennial release schedule, I'm guessing they want a similar sort of title to fill the gap that AC has left behind, and Prince of Persia is a dead franchise.
As someone who works in a functional job, I can assure you that the rewards in these positions are still high enough.
But we will see
Edit
I forgot Hammonds on tomorrow and I have no confidence in him not dropping a brick somewhere in the budget
I can't see the Tories romping home though, best they can hope for is Davis or Boris (maybe now even May) scrape a majority. However I think it is clear that Corbyn's momentum has stalled and even if Brexit does turn out badly there is no guarantee he would get a majority even then.
Until those are resolved the Conservatives have an open wound.
https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/933090498331361282
Brown May 2010 29% and 258 seats
May might be a pound shop John Major but she is not a pound shop Gordon Brown.
I still think its hilarious that they're talking about changes as big as the VAT threshold. It simply won't pass.
But YouTube is even better.
I do wonder how we managed when books were much more expensive and there was only three TV channels.
You know what I am going to say next .................
Like the Catholic church's doctrine that the sun went round the earth and forcing Galileo to recant, and comparing it with John Redwood's insistence that the Hammond come out with more Brexit-friendly figures.
Uber Concealed Cyberattack That Exposed 57 Million People’s Data
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/uber-concealed-cyberattack-that-exposed-57-million-people-s-data
It was a good post (not to belittle it but many people found the same thing but their local associations had asked members not to discuss the campaign on social media, such as me and mine!!)
But @RochdalePioneers got the campaign perfectly in his/her post which reposted subsequently once and have kept for future reference.
Edit: and posts since have been equally prescient and enjoyable to read.
Putin has a poll lead.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/933097655156088834
There comes a point at which it is really, really embarrassing to tell your mates you still believe in him.
2007 Brown
2008 Cameron
2010 Clegg
2012 Miliband
2015 Osborne
2016 May
2017 Corbyn
The very thing most likely to make Jezza PM after the next election is Tory disbelief that it could be possible.
Isn't that what all CoEs promise - "We'll increase teaching in STEM subjects, we'll increase apprenticeships, we'll increase R&D investment, we'll increase housebuilding, blah and blah".
Corbyn may not be converting many more new converts to cause atm, but there is no evidence to suggest that those who voted for him are no longer believing.
Do you know who it is really embarrassing to tell your mates who you support? Theresa May and the Conservative Party....
That seems a laughably low turnout figure and, as such, not only would I be sceptical about the headline figures because of that one feature, I'd be sceptical about the whole poll.
Elections are more usually won when large numbers of your opponents abstain from voting rather than convert to your cause, I can't see many Tories converting to Corbynism and I can't see many abstaining when the choice is facing a hard left government led by Corbyn's front bench.
Blair was so successful because he convinced middle England he wasn't a threat to them and clothed his social democratic policies in the language of aspiration, Corbyn offers no such illusions.
Even facing the most incompetent Tory campaign in recent memory, up against a manifesto that was little more than a raspberry in the face of the core Tory vote, against a country bitterly divided on Brexit and with many people seeing a vote for Labour as a 'free hit' against the government as Corbyn couldn't possibly win, he still couldn't get over the finishing line.
We have no idea how Corbyn will play in years ahead. None.
The very same posters were debating the size of Tory majority on polling day.
Learn.
Learn.
(Being wrong last time doesn't mean being wrong this time for predicting a similar outcome, nor does doing a 180 guarantee being right this time)
@Jonathan Agreed.
Learn.
It is students for Corbyn, pensioners for May but the middle aged who will decide the next general election.