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  • Sandpit said:

    Has any Chancellor ever forecast a recession, ever?
    Edit: these are OBR figures. Still no recession though, what happened to TCO’s vision of Brexit Armageddon?
    There really ought to be a rule that forecasts a recession in the medium-term planning (say at five years hence, subject to evidence suggesting it'd be sooner, as part of a 10-year forecast).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    JonathanD said:

    Fenster said:

    JonathanD said:

    Fenster said:

    Where is the economic crash?

    Let's be honest, five consecutive years of economic growth bears no resemblance to the armageddon predicted by the Remain camp.
    Medium term GDP growth of 1.5% as a result of Brexit was pretty much the Remain forecast.
    Recession was the Remain forecast. Let's not have any of this mealy-mouthed bullshit.
    Fortunately we've been pulled along by a booming EU.
    They are not booming but doing better, in part because of the amount we import from them. They really should think about that.
  • DavidL said:

    So where are the tax increases to pay for all of this?

    Appendix 32 (B) footnote 17 in 6-pt light grey type.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839
    Duty on spirits frozen !
  • DavidL said:

    JonathanD said:

    Fenster said:

    JonathanD said:

    Fenster said:

    Where is the economic crash?

    Let's be honest, five consecutive years of economic growth bears no resemblance to the armageddon predicted by the Remain camp.
    Medium term GDP growth of 1.5% as a result of Brexit was pretty much the Remain forecast.
    Recession was the Remain forecast. Let's not have any of this mealy-mouthed bullshit.
    Fortunately we've been pulled along by a booming EU.
    They are not booming but doing better, in part because of the amount we import from them. They really should think about that.
    Are you telling them to put the economy before politics?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    DavidL said:

    So where are the tax increases to pay for all of this?

    Appendix 32 (B) footnote 17 in 6-pt light grey type.
    Very good.
  • Stop watch update?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,552

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Universal Credit changes now. 7 days gone, more advances, HB. £1.5bn package. Left the 6 weeks but big mitigation.

    It still screws those who are migrating over to UC from other benefits.
    Having the overlap of the HB for 2 weeks will help.
    A little, but it effectively can leave families struggling for other stuff for up to six weeks.
    And leaves Corbyn with one of his main talking points....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839
    Not sure extra tax on White Lightning will pay for everything
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Sandpit said:

    For any execs looking forward to electric car benefit in kind ending:
    https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-driven/panamera-turbo-s-e-hybrid-sport-turismo-driven/37126
    Would love to see the detail of this policy.

    So would I. My hybrid is due in March. We are looking at charging points before then as others in the company are switching then too and over the next few years. Diesel cars for us are dead.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839

    Stop watch update?

    Probably up to 40 minutes as the BBC feed via mobile internet is always delayed
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Taxes....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839
    £350 million !
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    National Living wage up 4.4%. That saves a fortune in benefits.
  • Here we go, how much am I going to get stung for...
  • Here we go...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839

    Here we go, how much am I going to get stung for...

    Do you enjoy White Lightning and roll ups ?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Don't do it Phil.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited November 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Don't do it Phil.

    YES PHIL. NOT DEAF TO SMALL BUSINESSES AFTER ALL.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Here we go, how much am I going to get stung for...

    Do you enjoy White Lightning and roll ups ?
    How did you guess? ;-)
  • Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Universal Credit changes now. 7 days gone, more advances, HB. £1.5bn package. Left the 6 weeks but big mitigation.

    It still screws those who are migrating over to UC from other benefits.
    Having the overlap of the HB for 2 weeks will help.
    A little, but it effectively can leave families struggling for other stuff for up to six weeks.
    'Stop moaning, I know yer starving but at least you've a roof over your head.'
  • VAT held at £85,000
  • VAT held at £85,000

    Phew....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    Go cattle.
  • Where are the tax increases coming from
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2017
    Where is all this extra money coming from while lower growth and also still slashing the deficit....
  • DavidL said:

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    Go cattle.
    Never, ever again, for long-haul. I'd rather stay at home. Premium economy is OK, though, especially for daytime flights.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839

    Where are the tax increases coming from

    Diesel cars, white lightning and roll ups. Also Nabavi's air miles.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    APD is a really nasty tax on productivity. It should be abolished.
  • Where is all this extra money coming from while lower growth and also still slashing the deficit....

    Higher rate pension relief maybe
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    VAT held at £85,000

    Good. That was the most stupid idea anyone suggested to him.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Sandpit said:

    VAT held at £85,000

    Good. That was the most stupid idea anyone suggested to him.
    Ever....

    +1.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    DavidL said:

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    Go cattle.
    Awful idea.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Oh yes, nasty multinationals getting hit as well. I think I am at a full house now (well once he tells us about his Bob the Builder plans).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2017
    Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Good idea making marketplaces jointly liable for VAT fraud.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839
    Past the record shortest budget time now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    APD is a really nasty tax on productivity. It should be abolished.
    Couldn’t agree more, but then you and I (and people on here more generally) pay somewhat more than average in APD.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited November 2017

    Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)

    LOL.

    Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Empty property penalty - excellent.
  • What did he mean by considering 'reforming' the VAT registration threshold, I wonder?
  • eBay and Amazon going to have to get their arse in gear. All those dodgy Chinese sellers avoiding the vat are their problem now!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Mortimer said:

    Good idea making marketplaces jointly liable for VAT fraud.....

    Yup, he's just made Amazon and eBay into VAT police.
  • Mortimer said:

    Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)

    LOL.

    Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.
    What a great idea. I am all on board with that.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Mortimer said:

    Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)

    LOL.

    Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.
    What a great idea. I am all on board with that.
    Next the Hawaiian pizza levy...
  • MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Good idea making marketplaces jointly liable for VAT fraud.....

    Yup, he's just made Amazon and eBay into VAT police.
    Very sensible. They've got all the information and can easily detect the VAT scams using software.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    What did he mean by considering 'reforming' the VAT registration threshold, I wonder?

    Sliding scale intro rather than cliff edge at 85k?????
  • On that Best CoE, what were the stats, say, 2017preGE, 2017prelocals, 2016preBrexit and 2015preGE?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,721

    What did he mean by considering 'reforming' the VAT registration threshold, I wonder?

    I took it as 'will look at moving from a cliff-edge to threshold' but just out for consultation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2017

    Mortimer said:

    Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)

    LOL.

    Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.
    What a great idea. I am all on board with that.
    Next the Hawaiian pizza levy...
    I think we also need a special levy on Radiohead tickets! It is good for the public health.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    Good idea making marketplaces jointly liable for VAT fraud.....

    Yup, he's just made Amazon and eBay into VAT police.
    Very sensible. They've got all the information and can easily detect the VAT scams using software.
    Agreed.
  • MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    Go cattle.
    Awful idea.
    I recently flew on Easyjet, I'm still traumatised by it, makes me appreciate Etihad and Emirates even more, and their wonderful first class team
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    DavidL said:

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    Go cattle.
    Never, ever again, for long-haul. I'd rather stay at home. Premium economy is OK, though, especially for daytime flights.
    Go cattle. Spend more on red wine. Sleep.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Mortimer said:

    Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)

    LOL.

    Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.
    What a great idea. I am all on board with that.
    A daily £1149 charge.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Mortimer said:

    Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)

    LOL.

    Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.
    What a great idea. I am all on board with that.
    Next the Hawaiian pizza levy...
    And the Alternative VAT policy that never arrives...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    £44bn of spending on housing. And growth is going to slow?? Even the NAO will have a hard time claiming construction is falling whilst that is spent.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839
    Kerching

    We're on a pound a minute from here on out 8)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    DavidL said:

    So where are the tax increases to pay for all of this?

    I suspect inflation is largely paying for it. eg the £2.8 billion extra for NHS England is less than inflation for a £122 billion budget. Most taxes will increase with inflation.

  • MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    Go cattle.
    Awful idea.
    I recently flew on Easyjet, I'm still traumatised by it, makes me appreciate Etihad and Emirates even more, and their wonderful first class team
    If you think easyJet is bad, try Ryanair. You will need to shower in dettol for a week.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    Mortimer said:

    Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)

    LOL.

    Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.
    What a great idea. I am all on board with that.
    Next the Hawaiian pizza levy...
    I think we also need a special levy on Radiohead tickets! It is good for the public health.
    I was thinking maybe 4000%? Or is that too moderate?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Mortimer said:

    Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)

    LOL.

    Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.
    Anyone who buys any Apple products cannot get any benefits: if you can afford to pay a surcharge for fashionable tat, you don't need any extra money. ;)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    DavidL said:

    £44bn of spending on housing. And growth is going to slow?? Even the NAO will have a hard time claiming construction is falling whilst that is spent.

    I don't see how the GDP forecast matches up with any of the other information from today. It feels as if the OBR are playing it extremely safe for the headline forecast. I'll wait for the Bank's forecasts tbh.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    What did he mean by considering 'reforming' the VAT registration threshold, I wonder?

    If it’s causing problems it needs raising to £100k.

    Maybe make it based on income rather than turnover, so a plumber buying and reselling expensive parts for a customer isn’t affected, but an IT consultant is.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    £44bn of spending on housing. And growth is going to slow?? Even the NAO will have a hard time claiming construction is falling whilst that is spent.

    I don't see how the GDP forecast matches up with any of the other information from today. It feels as if the OBR are playing it extremely safe for the headline forecast. I'll wait for the Bank's forecasts tbh.
    Agreed. Of course Chancellors are always a lot happier saying growth has come in higher than forecast too. Especially as they get nearer an election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited November 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Kerching

    We're on a pound a minute from here on out 8)

    Well done! Do you know any opposition MPs who can heckle him?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    So where are the tax increases to pay for all of this?

    I suspect inflation is largely paying for it. eg the £2.8 billion extra for NHS England is less than inflation for a £122 billion budget. Most taxes will increase with inflation.

    Let's see how much the 40% & 45% threshold moves. Less than inflation I'm sure.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839
    Keeping the VAT threshold earns cash without annoying people.

    Oldest trick in the book, fiscal drag.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    Go cattle.
    Awful idea.
    I recently flew on Easyjet, I'm still traumatised by it, makes me appreciate Etihad and Emirates even more, and their wonderful first class team
    I just came back from Japan recently. Didn't regret the decision to spend miles upgrading from premium to club. I don't understand why anyone would bother with premium economy though, better to go club or cattle.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    £44bn of spending on housing. And growth is going to slow?? Even the NAO will have a hard time claiming construction is falling whilst that is spent.

    I don't see how the GDP forecast matches up with any of the other information from today. It feels as if the OBR are playing it extremely safe for the headline forecast. I'll wait for the Bank's forecasts tbh.
    Agreed. Of course Chancellors are always a lot happier saying growth has come in higher than forecast too. Especially as they get nearer an election.
    Oh! Do you think that there's another due soon, as well?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited November 2017

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    Go cattle.
    Awful idea.
    I recently flew on Easyjet, I'm still traumatised by it, makes me appreciate Etihad and Emirates even more, and their wonderful first class team
    If you think easyJet is bad, try Ryanair. You will need to shower in dettol for a week.
    No, don’t try Ryanair.

    One of the few advantages of a no-deal Brexit is that Ryanair will be banned from flying in the U.K.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Another huge freebie on stamp duty.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Stamp duty!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    edited November 2017
    Stamp duty gone on first time buyers upto £300,000 from today
  • There must be some nasty shit in the devils detail.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839
    Damn, I'm a second time buyer.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Wow Stamp Duty abolished on all properties under 300k for first time buyers!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Stamp duty gone on first time buyers upto £300,000 from today

    That’s a biggie!
  • Sandpit said:

    What did he mean by considering 'reforming' the VAT registration threshold, I wonder?

    If it’s causing problems it needs raising to £100k.

    Maybe make it based on income rather than turnover, so a plumber buying and reselling expensive parts for a customer isn’t affected, but an IT consultant is.
    A plumber buying and reselling expensive parts needs to be registered so that he can reclaim the VAT on his purchases!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    One small rabbit - is there another ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Did he say anything about pension tax relief? Didn't hear it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839
    1 hr 1 min 50 seconds.
  • Where are the tax increases - very well received by the party

    Lets see how this pans out
  • Sandpit said:

    Stamp duty gone on first time buyers upto £300,000 from today

    That’s a biggie!
    Won't this increase house prices???? More demand from 1st timers - same supply (given or take a few 1000 that they manage to actually build).
  • DavidL said:

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    Go cattle.
    Never, ever again, for long-haul. I'd rather stay at home. Premium economy is OK, though, especially for daytime flights.
    Go by train.
  • That's it?
  • DavidL said:

    Did he say anything about pension tax relief? Didn't hear it.

    No
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Very nice stamp duty change.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    Go cattle.
    Awful idea.
    I recently flew on Easyjet, I'm still traumatised by it, makes me appreciate Etihad and Emirates even more, and their wonderful first class team
    I just came back from Japan recently. Didn't regret the decision to spend miles upgrading from premium to club. I don't understand why anyone would bother with premium economy though, better to go club or cattle.
    PE is good for a long haul day flight (DXB-LHR) where you need to go to a meeting at the other end but don’t need to sleep on the plane.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    This doesn't add up. We are missing something even although the £44bn is going to be mainly off balance sheet.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Damn, I'm a second time buyer.

    I'm curious as to exactly how the term is defined. Could one partner buy their first property and the other buy their second?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2017
    Time for jezza’s greatest hits....the tories the tories the tories
  • DavidL said:

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    Go cattle.
    Never, ever again, for long-haul. I'd rather stay at home. Premium economy is OK, though, especially for daytime flights.
    Go by train.
    Bit hard if you're going to the Caribbean!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Damn, I'm a second time buyer.

    I'm curious as to exactly how the term is defined. Could one partner buy their first property and the other buy their second?
    Is this a record? A possible loophole found within 30 seconds!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839
    My other half is a first time buyer, but she's buying with me - and I'm a seller & second time buyer.

    Hmm...
  • I simply don't see how this balances out. I assume there must be something in the paperwork but he seems to be saying we will have more spending, lower GDP and lower debt. Surely those things are mutually exclusive.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2017

    DavidL said:

    Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.

    Go cattle.
    Never, ever again, for long-haul. I'd rather stay at home. Premium economy is OK, though, especially for daytime flights.
    Go by train.
    Bit hard if you're going to the Caribbean!
    Go by train to Paris or Brussels, and fly business from there. Cheaper even without considering APD!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2017
    Nothing on plan2 student loans?

    Did I miss it?

    The £25k threshold, rising with RPI - is that still going ahead?

    Odd not to mention it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Of course first time buyers in the SNP run Scotland will still have to pay stamp duty.
  • Time for jezza’s greatest hits....the tories the tories the tories

    He is too shouty
This discussion has been closed.