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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    franklyn said:

    Unless I missed it, no mention of student loans

    I think the repayment threshold went up, and it's now linked to average earnings.
    That would be an improvement.

    But it also means that most students are going to have huge nominal debts which they'll never repay.

    Which is ridiculous and with possible negative consequences.
    Sub prime re-invented. Best deal with it sooner rather than later.
    The system is deliberately and knowingly designed so that most students will never repay the full loan. It is nothing like sub-prime. It is a graduate tax with a lifetime limit on the amount payable in all but name. As far as I can see the only reason it isn't a straight graduate tax is that we would then have to allow students from anywhere in the EU to attend UK universities without paying anything.
    We know that even on govt projections 50% will not be repaid, yet those loans are still showing on the books.

    Loans that will never be repaid, but showing as an asset, is the very defination of sub prime loans.
    They're being charged with REAL interest though unlike a mortgage where it is generally negative after inflation (As the base rate is sub inflation).
    So some grads will overpay the loan in real terms - those starting on about 70kI think. But yes the aggregate debt figure should be valued at perhaps 35% of book for prudence's sake ?
    Having a base rate below inflation is pretty unusual on any 200 year sweep of history.
    Well it looks the case for the near future !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    franklyn said:

    Unless I missed it, no mention of student loans

    I think the repayment threshold went up, and it's now linked to average earnings.
    That would be an improvement.

    But it also means that most students are going to have huge nominal debts which they'll never repay.

    Which is ridiculous and with possible negative consequences.
    Sub prime re-invented. Best deal with it sooner rather than later.
    The system is deliberately and knowingly designed so that most students will never repay the full loan. It is nothing like sub-prime. It is a graduate tax with a lifetime limit on the amount payable in all but name. As far as I can see the only reason it isn't a straight graduate tax is that we would then have to allow students from anywhere in the EU to attend UK universities without paying anything.
    We know that even on govt projections 50% will not be repaid, yet those loans are still showing on the books.

    Loans that will never be repaid, but showing as an asset, is the very defination of sub prime loans.
    You're predicting that student loans will make the government insolvent?
    No, but I am predicting that the government will have to wriite down the loans in the end, perhaps by 50%, paid for by higher taxes at some point.

    Why not cut out a lot of misery and do it sooner, rather than wait until a crisis?
    Aren't they already taking into account that some people won't fully repay their debts though?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    As we are unable to create two world, one where the UK stays in the EU and one where it leaves, one cannot construct experiments to test.

    Ideally, of course, we'd have about six different scenarios we could test. But building all those new worlds and replicating six billion people solely for the purpose of running a test is probably prohibitively expensive.

    The result of this is that no-one will ever know if Brexit was the right or the wrong decision economically.
  • Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    Actually we are saving £15.7 billion in payments. Most of what came back to us from Brussels came with hugely prescriptive conditions and more often than not the demand for matched funding by the UK Government which warped our own public spending plans.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    franklyn said:

    Unless I missed it, no mention of student loans

    I think the repayment threshold went up, and it's now linked to average earnings.
    That would be an improvement.

    But it also means that most students are going to have huge nominal debts which they'll never repay.

    Which is ridiculous and with possible negative consequences.
    Sub prime re-invented. Best deal with it sooner rather than later.
    The system is deliberately and knowingly designed so that most students will never repay the full loan. It is nothing like sub-prime. It is a graduate tax with a lifetime limit on the amount payable in all but name. As far as I can see the only reason it isn't a straight graduate tax is that we would then have to allow students from anywhere in the EU to attend UK universities without paying anything.
    We know that even on govt projections 50% will not be repaid, yet those loans are still showing on the books.

    Loans that will never be repaid, but showing as an asset, is the very defination of sub prime loans.
    You're predicting that student loans will make the government insolvent?
    No, but I am predicting that the government will have to wriite down the loans in the end, perhaps by 50%, paid for by higher taxes at some point.

    Why not cut out a lot of misery and do it sooner, rather than wait until a crisis?
    Aren't they already taking into account that some people won't fully repay their debts though?
    I don't know, but they should show as a liability on govt books.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    As we are unable to create two world, one where the UK stays in the EU and one where it leaves, one cannot construct experiments to test.

    Ideally, of course, we'd have about six different scenarios we could test. But building all those new worlds and replicating six billion people solely for the purpose of running a test is probably prohibitively expensive.

    The result of this is that no-one will ever know if Brexit was the right or the wrong decision economically.
    So it will be judged on whether it was the right or wrong decision politically. Which is still likely to divide people down the middle for years to come.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    As we are unable to create two world, one where the UK stays in the EU and one where it leaves, one cannot construct experiments to test.

    Ideally, of course, we'd have about six different scenarios we could test. But building all those new worlds and replicating six billion people solely for the purpose of running a test is probably prohibitively expensive.

    The result of this is that no-one will ever know if Brexit was the right or the wrong decision economically.
    So it will be judged on whether it was the right or wrong decision politically. Which is still likely to divide people down the middle for years to come.
    GDP per capita compared to France Germany Spain and the Netherlands after 25 years perhaps
  • Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    GDP loss does not equate directly with monies lost through payment to Brussels. Unless that GDP is being taxed at 100% (which it isn't) then the £15.7 billion paid out by the UK to the EU each year represents a far greater loss to the Treasury than the equivalent amount of GDP lost.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    As we are unable to create two world, one where the UK stays in the EU and one where it leaves, one cannot construct experiments to test.

    Ideally, of course, we'd have about six different scenarios we could test. But building all those new worlds and replicating six billion people solely for the purpose of running a test is probably prohibitively expensive.

    The result of this is that no-one will ever know if Brexit was the right or the wrong decision economically.
    Well, modelling is a thing. I am fairly sure some group of experts with a TLA name will be pumping out "what if" scenarios for Scott to retweet to us for several decades.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    franklyn said:

    Unless I missed it, no mention of student loans

    I think the repayment threshold went up, and it's now linked to average earnings.
    That would be an improvement.

    But it also means that most students are going to have huge nominal debts which they'll never repay.

    Which is ridiculous and with possible negative consequences.
    Sub prime re-invented. Best deal with it sooner rather than later.
    The system is deliberately and knowingly designed so that most students will never repay the full loan. It is nothing like sub-prime. It is a graduate tax with a lifetime limit on the amount payable in all but name. As far as I can see the only reason it isn't a straight graduate tax is that we would then have to allow students from anywhere in the EU to attend UK universities without paying anything.
    We know that even on govt projections 50% will not be repaid, yet those loans are still showing on the books.

    Loans that will never be repaid, but showing as an asset, is the very defination of sub prime loans.
    You're predicting that student loans will make the government insolvent?
    No, but I am predicting that the government will have to wriite down the loans in the end, perhaps by 50%, paid for by higher taxes at some point.

    Why not cut out a lot of misery and do it sooner, rather than wait until a crisis?
    Aren't they already taking into account that some people won't fully repay their debts though?
    I don't know, but they should show as a liability on govt books.
    Sounds as though they do show up as a liability:

    http://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Accounting-and-Budgeting-FINAL.pdf
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited November 2017
    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    Just crunched the numbers. Using their figures in the executive summary the GDP in 2021/22 will be £45bn lower than predicted in the March forecast. It's not a flat 0.5% downgrade each year.

    And it's hardly money down the drain when you never had it in the first place!
    20/21 is year four. £45bn lower is worse than the £20bn I crudely calculated based on 0.5% pa.

    As a nation, according to the figures in the executive summary, we will earn and consume £45bn less in 2021/22 than predicted just last March. Doesn't that make you think? That's a £45bn shortfall on what we expected to earn that year. Cumulatively it completely overshadows our exit bill or our EU net contributions.

    To put it in perspective, the annual interest payment on the National Debt is £43bn. That £45bn we have foregone could have paid the total interest on our national Debt that we are all so concerned about.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    As we are unable to create two world, one where the UK stays in the EU and one where it leaves, one cannot construct experiments to test.

    Ideally, of course, we'd have about six different scenarios we could test. But building all those new worlds and replicating six billion people solely for the purpose of running a test is probably prohibitively expensive.

    The result of this is that no-one will ever know if Brexit was the right or the wrong decision economically.
    So it will be judged on whether it was the right or wrong decision politically. Which is still likely to divide people down the middle for years to come.
    GDP per capita compared to France Germany Spain and the Netherlands after 25 years perhaps
    Does that mean we can still argue about Brexit: right or wrong? for 25 more years?

    Just rejoice at that news.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    Just crunched the numbers. Using their figures in the executive summary the GDP in 2021/22 will be £45bn lower than predicted in the March forecast. It's not a flat 0.5% downgrade each year.

    And it's hardly money down the drain when you never had it in the first place!
    20/21 is year four. £45bn lower is worse than the £20bn I crudely calculated based on 0.5% pa.

    As a nation, according to the figures in the executive summary, we will earn and consume £45bn less in 2021/22 than predicted just last March. Doesn't that make you think? That's a £45bn shortfall on what we expected to earn that year. Cumulatively it completely overshadows our exit bill or our EU net contributions.

    To put it in perspective, the annual interest payment on the National Debt is £43bn. That £45bn we have foregone could have paid the total interest on our national Debt that we are all so concerned about.
    I'm using table 1.1 in their summary, where 2021 is the fifth year. They didn't make a 2022 forecast in March, so unsure how you can extend the calculation further.

    I don't think that's a fair comparison. It would not have been possible to somehow convert this lost GDP all into tax revenue for the government.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think we could be joining a reformed EU in 5 to 10 years' time, one that is more conducive to the political cultures of northern Europe.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    As we are unable to create two world, one where the UK stays in the EU and one where it leaves, one cannot construct experiments to test.

    Ideally, of course, we'd have about six different scenarios we could test. But building all those new worlds and replicating six billion people solely for the purpose of running a test is probably prohibitively expensive.

    The result of this is that no-one will ever know if Brexit was the right or the wrong decision economically.
    We will.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    AndyJS said:

    I think we could be joining a reformed EU in 5 to 10 years' time, one that is more conducive to the political cultures of northern Europe.

    Can you give a couple of bullet points of the reforms you're expecting?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    As we are unable to create two world, one where the UK stays in the EU and one where it leaves, one cannot construct experiments to test.

    Ideally, of course, we'd have about six different scenarios we could test. But building all those new worlds and replicating six billion people solely for the purpose of running a test is probably prohibitively expensive.

    The result of this is that no-one will ever know if Brexit was the right or the wrong decision economically.
    The constant downgrading of forecasts (which on the whole are linked to/blamed on Brexit) would suggest otherwise.

    And what would Slartibartfast say about the rest of your comment, eh? EH?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2017
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    franklyn said:

    Unless I missed it, no mention of student loans

    I think the repayment threshold went up, and it's now linked to average earnings.
    That would be an improvement.

    But it also means that most students are going to have huge nominal debts which they'll never repay.

    Which is ridiculous and with possible negative consequences.
    Sub prime re-invented. Best deal with it sooner rather than later.
    The system is deliberately and knowingly designed so that most students will never repay the full loan. It is nothing like sub-prime. It is a graduate tax with a lifetime limit on the amount payable in all but name. As far as I can see the only reason it isn't a straight graduate tax is that we would then have to allow students from anywhere in the EU to attend UK universities without paying anything.
    We know that even on govt projections 50% will not be repaid, yet those loans are still showing on the books.

    Loans that will never be repaid, but showing as an asset, is the very defination of sub prime loans.
    You're predicting that student loans will make the government insolvent?
    No, but I am predicting that the government will have to wriite down the loans in the end, perhaps by 50%, paid for by higher taxes at some point.

    Why not cut out a lot of misery and do it sooner, rather than wait until a crisis?
    Aren't they already taking into account that some people won't fully repay their debts though?
    I don't know, but they should show as a liability on govt books.
    Sounds as though they do show up as a liability:

    http://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Accounting-and-Budgeting-FINAL.pdf
    Interesting:

    "The OBR has translated the chart’s percentage figures into cash
    terms:‘the direct flows will add 5.4 per cent of GDP to net debt
    in 2018-19 (£88 billion), rising to 9.8 per cent of GDP by the
    mid-2030s (£162 billion), and then falling to 8.3 per cent of
    GDP in 2063-64 (£137 billion).’
    9 The current system does not
    reach operational maturity until 2040, by which time over £100
    billion will have been added to the PSND measure."

    PFI revisited.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2017

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    GDP loss does not equate directly with monies lost through payment to Brussels. Unless that GDP is being taxed at 100% (which it isn't) then the £15.7 billion paid out by the UK to the EU each year represents a far greater loss to the Treasury than the equivalent amount of GDP lost.
    That's what I was getting at when it came to "what it means".

    Conversely does the loss to the overall economy impoverish us all compared to a the loss of a lesser amount lost to the treasury? Where's the crossover in terms of standards of living? Is this even a coherent question?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2017

    AndyJS said:

    I think we could be joining a reformed EU in 5 to 10 years' time, one that is more conducive to the political cultures of northern Europe.

    Can you give a couple of bullet points of the reforms you're expecting?
    They could be forced to reform by events, dear boy, events. Such as a second German election early next year producing an ever bigger stalemate than they currently have.
  • Just as an aside:

    French youth unemployment is currently 22.5 %.

    It is falling, but only since 'contentious' UK-lite labour laws were implemented: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/26/why-france-labour-reforms-proved-so-contentious



    On the other hand, Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, Czechia and Austria all have lower youth unemployment than us and rising real wages:

    https://goo.gl/images/YIqfr5

    PB Tories seenig suppressed wages as a feature not a bug should not be surprised by the enthusiasm for Corbynite redistribution.
    Instead of boring PB Torie nonsense and only showing half the data, get to the point - what are these countries doing differently, what can we copy, adapt or otherwise steal?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    Even if you accept Richard T's very contentious estimate of around £16bn contribution (ie gross) then the figures look like this in £ billions:

    17/18 Pay £40, lose £5 GDP, save £16, so net LOSS is £29
    18/19 Lose £10 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £6 (cumulative LOSS of £23)
    19/20 Lose £15 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £1 (cumulative LOSS of £22)
    20/21 Lose £20 GDP (or £45 according to executive summary), gain £16 so net LOSS is £4 (cumulative LOSS of £26)
    and the differential gets worse and worse year by year.

    So, to answer your question, the break even point is this year. It just gets worse and worse.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited November 2017
    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    Just crunched the numbers. Using their figures in the executive summary the GDP in 2021/22 will be £45bn lower than predicted in the March forecast. It's not a flat 0.5% downgrade each year.

    And it's hardly money down the drain when you never had it in the first place!
    20/21 is year four. £45bn lower is worse than the £20bn I crudely calculated based on 0.5% pa.

    As a nation, according to the figures in the executive summary, we will earn and consume £45bn less in 2021/22 than predicted just last March. Doesn't that make you think? That's a £45bn shortfall on what we expected to earn that year. Cumulatively it completely overshadows our exit bill or our EU net contributions.

    To put it in perspective, the annual interest payment on the National Debt is £43bn. That £45bn we have foregone could have paid the total interest on our national Debt that we are all so concerned about.
    Um no. That is simply wrong. You seem to be assuming that the whole £45 billion in lost GDP would otherwise be available for the Government to spend. Since the tax to GDP ratio is currently around 32% that is clearly rubbish.

    Edit. 32% of £45 billion is £14.4 billion which is over £1 billion less than we currently send to Brussels each year
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    Even if you accept Richard T's very contentious estimate of around £16bn contribution (ie gross) then the figures look like this in £ billions:

    17/18 Pay £40, lose £5 GDP, save £16, so net LOSS is £29
    18/19 Lose £10 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £6 (cumulative LOSS of £23)
    19/20 Lose £15 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £1 (cumulative LOSS of £22)
    20/21 Lose £20 GDP (or £45 according to executive summary), gain £16 so net LOSS is £4 (cumulative LOSS of £26)
    and the differential gets worse and worse year by year.

    So, to answer your question, the break even point is this year. It just gets worse and worse.
    Depends, is GDP going to be lower forever past Brexit?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    franklyn said:

    Unless I missed it, no mention of student loans

    I think the repayment threshold went up, and it's now linked to average earnings.
    That would be an improvement.

    But it also means that most students are going to have huge nominal debts which they'll never repay.

    Which is ridiculous and with possible negative consequences.
    Sub prime re-invented. Best deal with it sooner rather than later.
    The system is deliberately and knowingly designed so that most students will never repay the full loan. It is nothing like sub-prime. It is a graduate tax with a lifetime limit on the amount payable in all but name. As far as I can see the only reason it isn't a straight graduate tax is that we would then have to allow students from anywhere in the EU to attend UK universities without paying anything.
    We know that even on govt projections 50% will not be repaid, yet those loans are still showing on the books.

    Loans that will never be repaid, but showing as an asset, is the very defination of sub prime loans.
    You're predicting that student loans will make the government insolvent?
    No, but I am predicting that the government will have to wriite down the loans in the end, perhaps by 50%, paid for by higher taxes at some point.

    Why not cut out a lot of misery and do it sooner, rather than wait until a crisis?
    Aren't they already taking into account that some people won't fully repay their debts though?
    I don't know, but they should show as a liability on govt books.
    Sounds as though they do show up as a liability:

    http://www.hepi.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Accounting-and-Budgeting-FINAL.pdf
    Interesting:

    "The OBR has translated the chart’s percentage figures into cash
    terms:‘the direct flows will add 5.4 per cent of GDP to net debt
    in 2018-19 (£88 billion), rising to 9.8 per cent of GDP by the
    mid-2030s (£162 billion), and then falling to 8.3 per cent of
    GDP in 2063-64 (£137 billion).’
    9 The current system does not
    reach operational maturity until 2040, by which time over £100
    billion will have been added to the PSND measure."

    PFI revisited.
    But accounted for on the government books.
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    Even if you accept Richard T's very contentious estimate of around £16bn contribution (ie gross) then the figures look like this in £ billions:

    17/18 Pay £40, lose £5 GDP, save £16, so net LOSS is £29
    18/19 Lose £10 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £6 (cumulative LOSS of £23)
    19/20 Lose £15 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £1 (cumulative LOSS of £22)
    20/21 Lose £20 GDP (or £45 according to executive summary), gain £16 so net LOSS is £4 (cumulative LOSS of £26)
    and the differential gets worse and worse year by year.

    So, to answer your question, the break even point is this year. It just gets worse and worse.
    You are still not comparing like with like. £15.7 billion sent to Brussels represents a GDP of just over £49 billion a year.
  • NEW THREAD

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    New thread.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    Even if you accept Richard T's very contentious estimate of around £16bn contribution (ie gross) then the figures look like this in £ billions:

    17/18 Pay £40, lose £5 GDP, save £16, so net LOSS is £29
    18/19 Lose £10 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £6 (cumulative LOSS of £23)
    19/20 Lose £15 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £1 (cumulative LOSS of £22)
    20/21 Lose £20 GDP (or £45 according to executive summary), gain £16 so net LOSS is £4 (cumulative LOSS of £26)
    and the differential gets worse and worse year by year.

    So, to answer your question, the break even point is this year. It just gets worse and worse.
    Depends, is GDP going to be lower forever past Brexit?
    It depends whether the average growth rate returns to better than long term trend.

    If it remains at long term trend, or stays below, then there is permanent GDP loss.

    Of course Brexit was not done primarily for economic reasons, but as post Brexit the British population will be older, and have a higher dependancy ratio as a result of reduced immigration there are likely to be increased restraints on growth.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    Even if you accept Richard T's very contentious estimate of around £16bn contribution (ie gross) then the figures look like this in £ billions:

    17/18 Pay £40, lose £5 GDP, save £16, so net LOSS is £29
    18/19 Lose £10 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £6 (cumulative LOSS of £23)
    19/20 Lose £15 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £1 (cumulative LOSS of £22)
    20/21 Lose £20 GDP (or £45 according to executive summary), gain £16 so net LOSS is £4 (cumulative LOSS of £26)
    and the differential gets worse and worse year by year.

    So, to answer your question, the break even point is this year. It just gets worse and worse.
    Thank-you.

    And you use Richards "optimistic" figures which are contentious to say the least.

    So let's stop beating around the bush and say it straight, we are worse off as a nation economically for Brexiting.

    The sick man of Europe, redux!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    Even if you accept Richard T's very contentious estimate of around £16bn contribution (ie gross) then the figures look like this in £ billions:

    17/18 Pay £40, lose £5 GDP, save £16, so net LOSS is £29
    18/19 Lose £10 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £6 (cumulative LOSS of £23)
    19/20 Lose £15 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £1 (cumulative LOSS of £22)
    20/21 Lose £20 GDP (or £45 according to executive summary), gain £16 so net LOSS is £4 (cumulative LOSS of £26)
    and the differential gets worse and worse year by year.

    So, to answer your question, the break even point is this year. It just gets worse and worse.
    Depends, is GDP going to be lower forever past Brexit?
    Ceteris paribus, yes.
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    Even if you accept Richard T's very contentious estimate of around £16bn contribution (ie gross) then the figures look like this in £ billions:

    17/18 Pay £40, lose £5 GDP, save £16, so net LOSS is £29
    18/19 Lose £10 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £6 (cumulative LOSS of £23)
    19/20 Lose £15 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £1 (cumulative LOSS of £22)
    20/21 Lose £20 GDP (or £45 according to executive summary), gain £16 so net LOSS is £4 (cumulative LOSS of £26)
    and the differential gets worse and worse year by year.

    So, to answer your question, the break even point is this year. It just gets worse and worse.
    Thank-you.

    And you use Richards "optimistic" figures which are contentious to say the least.

    So let's stop beating around the bush and say it straight, we are worse off as a nation economically for Brexiting.

    The sick man of Europe, redux!
    Nope because like Barnsian you are conflating different figures.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    Even if you accept Richard T's very contentious estimate of around £16bn contribution (ie gross) then the figures look like this in £ billions:

    17/18 Pay £40, lose £5 GDP, save £16, so net LOSS is £29
    18/19 Lose £10 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £6 (cumulative LOSS of £23)
    19/20 Lose £15 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £1 (cumulative LOSS of £22)
    20/21 Lose £20 GDP (or £45 according to executive summary), gain £16 so net LOSS is £4 (cumulative LOSS of £26)
    and the differential gets worse and worse year by year.

    So, to answer your question, the break even point is this year. It just gets worse and worse.
    Thank-you.

    And you use Richards "optimistic" figures which are contentious to say the least.

    So let's stop beating around the bush and say it straight, we are worse off as a nation economically for Brexiting.

    The sick man of Europe, redux!
    Nope because like Barnsian you are conflating different figures.
    No, you're confusing matters by talking about government spend versus overall GDP.

    Overall as an economy we are going to be worse off, and indeed are already worse off.

    Own it.
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    Even if you accept Richard T's very contentious estimate of around £16bn contribution (ie gross) then the figures look like this in £ billions:

    17/18 Pay £40, lose £5 GDP, save £16, so net LOSS is £29
    18/19 Lose £10 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £6 (cumulative LOSS of £23)
    19/20 Lose £15 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £1 (cumulative LOSS of £22)
    20/21 Lose £20 GDP (or £45 according to executive summary), gain £16 so net LOSS is £4 (cumulative LOSS of £26)
    and the differential gets worse and worse year by year.

    So, to answer your question, the break even point is this year. It just gets worse and worse.
    Thank-you.

    And you use Richards "optimistic" figures which are contentious to say the least.

    So let's stop beating around the bush and say it straight, we are worse off as a nation economically for Brexiting.

    The sick man of Europe, redux!
    Nope because like Barnsian you are conflating different figures.
    No, you're confusing matters by talking about government spend versus overall GDP.

    Overall as an economy we are going to be worse off, and indeed are already worse off.

    Own it.
    No because that Government spend would otherwise be used in ways that would contribute to GDP - at least that is what we keep being told by the economists.

    You and Barnsian are wrong because you are trying to conflate two different figures.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Anorak said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Budget: The cuts in GDP growth rates over the next 5 years are ominous. How much in lost output cumulatively does it come to ? Approx. £2tn x 2.5%

    £25 Bn
    Even as a remainiac, I can't help but compare that to our annual budget contribution to the EU.

    Not sure what the comparison means though...
    That's £25 Bn in year five. Cumulatively over five years it is 5+10+15+20+25 i.e £75 Bn lost.

    Plus our £40+ Bn exit payment. That's £115 Bn down the drain.

    Makes you think.
    You forget that we'll saving 8.6bn a year in payments from 2019. Even as a Remainer, this has to be pointed out.

    I'd love someone smarter and with better access to a spreadsheet to figure out if there will ever be a break even point.

    I suspect, though, we'll be paying a "Brexit tax" at least until I've retired (I'm 39).


    Even if you accept Richard T's very contentious estimate of around £16bn contribution (ie gross) then the figures look like this in £ billions:

    17/18 Pay £40, lose £5 GDP, save £16, so net LOSS is £29
    18/19 Lose £10 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £6 (cumulative LOSS of £23)
    19/20 Lose £15 GDP, save £16 so net GAIN is £1 (cumulative LOSS of £22)
    20/21 Lose £20 GDP (or £45 according to executive summary), gain £16 so net LOSS is £4 (cumulative LOSS of £26)
    and the differential gets worse and worse year by year.

    So, to answer your question, the break even point is this year. It just gets worse and worse.
    Thank-you.

    And you use Richards "optimistic" figures which are contentious to say the least.

    So let's stop beating around the bush and say it straight, we are worse off as a nation economically for Brexiting.

    The sick man of Europe, redux!
    Nope because like Barnsian you are conflating different figures.
    No, you're confusing matters by talking about government spend versus overall GDP.

    Overall as an economy we are going to be worse off, and indeed are already worse off.

    Own it.
    No because that Government spend would otherwise be used in ways that would contribute to GDP - at least that is what we keep being told by the economists.

    You and Barnsian are wrong because you are trying to conflate two different figures.
    You're obviously not an economist.

    But to be fair, I don't think you've ever argued for Brexit on economic grounds.
This discussion has been closed.