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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    No France on that list. I quite like that stat about their birth rate for female graduates being as high as non graduates.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @KevBLloyd: @andrew_raeburn @mrdavidwhitley @adriantoomey @janemerrick23 "Ok, you've got some wonderful prizes, you've got Euratom, the EMA & Bully's Special Prize, the European Banking Agency. But you've decided to gamble, so you're looking for 101 or more from 6 darts."

    *Davis & Johnson scrape 55*

    "Sorry lads, you're out of the customs union."

    @adriantoomey: @KevBLloyd @andrew_raeburn @mrdavidwhitley @janemerrick23 "We've had a great 40 years, Michel…we came in with nothing, and we're leaving with a huge sense of foreboding & mounting political chaos"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Scott_P said:

    Fenman said:

    This is an important gesture by India. This gives the brexiteers the opportunity I'm sure they have been looking for to show their commitment to international trade and to prove they are not the racist scum guardianistas accuse them of being.

    Take Back Control...

    ...by allowing India to dictate immigration policy.

    Yup, can't see any problem with the Brexiteers endorsing this
    If there were a reciprocal agreement to make it easier for UK companies to do business in India, and for Brits to work there, then this Brexiteer wouldn't mind too much. Indians have to be quite highly skilled to get work visas, and increasing the number of those is nothing like allowing any Indian to settle here.
    Our Remainers seem rather more concerned about the prospect of skilled middle class Indian immigrants than of unskilled underclass Eastern European immigrants.

    Perhaps because skilled middle class Indians might actually prove a threat to their jobs and earnings ?
    I’m not concerned, I’ve long been pro-immigration. I think you were only telling me yesterday that it was Eastern European immigration which made things difficult for my demographic.

    I think those who will be concerned if we have to allow FoM with India will be Leavers though - even if the ones on here aren’t.
    People tend to view things on whether they are beneficial or detimental to them personally - its human nature.

    If we'd had immigration restricted to middle class professionals there would have been a lot less concern in working class areas but howls of outrage from Tarquin and Jemima's parents when their little darlings weren't able to get graduate jobs because some immigrant was willing to do it cheaper and better.

    Please forgive the AB sterotyping.
    Watch what happens if we were to let lawyers and accountants from India practice in the UK. ;)

    I’ve often suggested here that we set up an NHS teaching hospital somewhere like Mumbai or Manila - plenty of skilled people who speak English and would welcome the opportunity to gain British qualifications and the possibility of working in Britain when they graduate.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    Fenman said:

    This is an important gesture by India. This gives the brexiteers the opportunity I'm sure they have been looking for to show their commitment to international trade and to prove they are not the racist scum guardianistas accuse them of being.

    Take Back Control...

    ...by allowing India to dictate immigration policy.

    Yup, can't see any problem with the Brexiteers endorsing this
    If there were a reciprocal agreement to make it easier for UK companies to do business in India, and for Brits to work there, then this Brexiteer wouldn't mind too much. Indians have to be quite highly skilled to get work visas, and increasing the number of those is nothing like allowing any Indian to settle here.
    Our Remainers seem rather more concerned about the prospect of skilled middle class Indian immigrants than of unskilled underclass Eastern European immigrants.

    Perhaps because skilled middle class Indians might actually prove a threat to their jobs and earnings ?
    I’m not concerned, I’ve long been pro-immigration. I think you were only telling me yesterday that it was Eastern European immigration which made things difficult for my demographic.

    I think those who will be concerned if we have to allow FoM with India will be Leavers though - even if the ones on here aren’t.
    People tend to view things on whether they are beneficial or detimental to them personally - its human nature.

    If we'd had immigration restricted to middle class professionals there would have been a lot less concern in working class areas but howls of outrage from Tarquin and Jemima's parents when their little darlings weren't able to get graduate jobs because some immigrant was willing to do it cheaper and better.

    Please forgive the AB sterotyping.
    Watch what happens if we were to let lawyers and accountants from India practice in the UK. ;)

    I’ve often suggested here that we set up an NHS teaching hospital somewhere like Mumbai or Manila - plenty of skilled people who speak English and would welcome the opportunity to gain British qualifications and the possibility of working in Britain when they graduate.
    Plenty of NHS workers already come from India and the Philippines. It’s hardly something that has never happened. The argument that skilled workers aren’t coming to the UK, especially from these countries seems a rather odd argument to make.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2014/jan/26/nhs-foreign-nationals-immigration-health-service
    .
  • Only this First Minister could be handed an extra £2bn and still sound like somebody has stolen her scone,” she [Ruth Davidson] said.

    Reader, steel yourself. What follows is the dumbest, most desperate pivot yet recorded in the annals of devolution. And that includes Kez’s TV career.

    The FM replied: “If I was a Tory these days, I wouldn’t be standing up in Parliament and talking about scones, given the number of Scottish families who are being forced to food banks.”

    And if I was FM I wouldn’t use food banks to score ridiculous points whenever an opponent mentioned something edible.

    “How dare you say I’ve got a chip on my shoulder… Put away that pie chart… Don’t ever call me Ms Sturgeon... when there are people using food banks.”

    The chamber broke down in contemptuous laughter.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15680750.FMQs_sketch__Scone_of_Destiny/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited November 2017

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    Fenman said:

    Our Remainers seem rather more concerned about the prospect of skilled middle class Indian immigrants than of unskilled underclass Eastern European immigrants.

    Perhaps because skilled middle class Indians might actually prove a threat to their jobs and earnings ?
    I’m not concerned, I’ve long been pro-immigration. I think you were only telling me yesterday that it was Eastern European immigration which made things difficult for my demographic.

    I think those who will be concerned if we have to allow FoM with India will be Leavers though - even if the ones on here aren’t.
    People tend to view things on whether they are beneficial or detimental to them personally - its human nature.

    If we'd had immigration restricted to middle class professionals there would have been a lot less concern in working class areas but howls of outrage from Tarquin and Jemima's parents when their little darlings weren't able to get graduate jobs because some immigrant was willing to do it cheaper and better.

    Please forgive the AB sterotyping.
    Watch what happens if we were to let lawyers and accountants from India practice in the UK. ;)

    I’ve often suggested here that we set up an NHS teaching hospital somewhere like Mumbai or Manila - plenty of skilled people who speak English and would welcome the opportunity to gain British qualifications and the possibility of working in Britain when they graduate.
    Plenty of NHS workers already come from India and the Philippines. It’s hardly something that has never happened. The argument that skilled workers aren’t coming to the UK, especially from these countries seems a rather odd argument to make.
    The numbers have actually been quite limited in recent years due to government immigration targets for non-EU citizens.

    Equivalence of qualifications is also a big issue, Dr Foxinsox has mentioned that it takes time and costs money to verify that a doctor from India applying to work in the NHS is actually a doctor with the correct training and experience. Sadly in certain parts of the world there are paper ‘universities’ that will sell you a ‘degree’. One can only imagine the outcry if there was a medical negligence case in the UK as a result. A few months ago a number of airline pilots in Asia were suspended for falsifying their training records, they didn’t have a valid licence to fly a glider, let alone a 747.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Ivan Rogers was sacked a couple of weeks after DCMS invited councils to bid...
    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/933803971394883585
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2017
    O/T

    Interesting Horizon on BBC2 at the moment about decision making.
  • SeanT said:

    jayfdee said:

    This makes me count my blessings.

    I'm also glad I was raised by parents who view debt as the eighth deadliest sin.

    Me too. I am relieved that I can ride out Brexit with impunity, and have sorted my offspring as well, and sorted my finance.
    Are we at tipping point yet re Brexit?
    I am a remainer, and the self inflicted damage we are receiving will only grow. Yes I am old, a northerner, time to come out and declare.
    Not tipping point yet.

    Leavers knew there'd be job losses once Brexit happens but they still voted for it.

    I suspect tipping point will be a long post Brexit slump (and the rest of the EU is booming), people will think they know what the causation is.
    The rest of the EU is not booming.

    Recent IMF predictions for EU 2017 GDP growth

    Netherlands: 2.2%
    Germany: 1.8%
    UK: 1.6%
    France: 1.5%
    Italy: 1.1%
    I meant post Brexit, if we're doing badly and they are doing well then some people will think it is the fault of Brexit.

    I fully concede it could be other things, but I think people will blame Brexit.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    edited November 2017
    The DCMS ran a bidding process that was already void at the point they issued the advice below because the candidates were all ineligible according to the current rules. That's a dishonest thing to do.

    In any case the information in the advice is materially false because it claims eligibility depends on the outcome of the exit negotiations and that was the only dependency it noted. Readers would understand that to mean that the programme would go ahead unless decided otherwise.

    FF43 said:


    In my opinion the UK government should do that. The Department of Culture Media and Sport misled candidate cities into bidding and spending money on a programme they weren't eligible for.

    Impact of the UK Decision to Leave the EU

    On 23 June 2016 the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The UK is still a full and active Member of the EU. Therefore, the competition for the European Capital of Culture 2023 will run as normal.

    The outcome of exit negotiations with the EU will determine what arrangements apply in relation to EU-administered programmes once the UK has exited. Until the UK has left the EU it remains a full member with all the rights and obligations of EU membership which includes fully engaging in relevant cultural programmes. We are committed for the UK to host the title in 2023, however bidding cities should be aware that the European Capital of Culture title may be subject to the outcome of those exit negotiations which could have a bearing on the UK’s participation and the government will advise bidding cities on this once negotiations have concluded.

    As with previous European Capital of Culture competitions, it is the responsibility of the cities and councils to develop and finance their bids for the competition. As is usual with cultural programmes and competitions the UK government bears no responsibility for the financial investment made by the cities and councils.


    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/578284/Impact_of_the_UK_Decision_to_Leave_the_EU.pdf
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    jayfdee said:

    This makes me count my blessings.

    I'm also glad I was raised by parents who view debt as the eighth deadliest sin.

    Me too. I am relieved that I can ride out Brexit with impunity, and have sorted my offspring as well, and sorted my finance.
    Are we at tipping point yet re Brexit?
    I am a remainer, and the self inflicted damage we are receiving will only grow. Yes I am old, a northerner, time to come out and declare.
    Not tipping point yet.

    Leavers knew there'd be job losses once Brexit happens but they still voted for it.

    I suspect tipping point will be a long post Brexit slump (and the rest of the EU is booming), people will think they know what the causation is.
    The rest of the EU is not booming.

    Recent IMF predictions for EU 2017 GDP growth

    Netherlands: 2.2%
    Germany: 1.8%
    UK: 1.6%
    France: 1.5%
    Italy: 1.1%
    The problem is laziness and complacency in most European countries, regardless of whether they're in the EU or the Euro. That's why productivity is not increasing. But most people prefer to blame their governments rather than themselves.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited November 2017
    @Sandpit
    Ah, I remember hearing some years ago that non-EU immigration exceeded EU immigration but as per this graph, it does seem that the gap has closed although this is quite recent:
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/files/2017/05/1-4.png

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761

    Only this First Minister could be handed an extra £2bn and still sound like somebody has stolen her scone,” she [Ruth Davidson] said.

    Reader, steel yourself. What follows is the dumbest, most desperate pivot yet recorded in the annals of devolution. And that includes Kez’s TV career.

    The FM replied: “If I was a Tory these days, I wouldn’t be standing up in Parliament and talking about scones, given the number of Scottish families who are being forced to food banks.”

    And if I was FM I wouldn’t use food banks to score ridiculous points whenever an opponent mentioned something edible.

    “How dare you say I’ve got a chip on my shoulder… Put away that pie chart… Don’t ever call me Ms Sturgeon... when there are people using food banks.”

    The chamber broke down in contemptuous laughter.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15680750.FMQs_sketch__Scone_of_Destiny/

    Blimey, the Herald is changing its tune isn’t it?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    Scott_P said:
    Well I am certainly pleased. AS I said on the previous thread I thought it was an idiotic scheme.
    Such schemes are make-work programs for middle class non-jobs and for bureaucrats to piss money up the wall by having piss-ups.
    I suppose you were also against the 2012 Olympics, because that was the ultimate provider of middle class non jobs. But it has ultimately regenerated the most contaminated and polluted part of east London.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761

    SeanT said:

    jayfdee said:

    This makes me count my blessings.

    I'm also glad I was raised by parents who view debt as the eighth deadliest sin.

    Me too. I am relieved that I can ride out Brexit with impunity, and have sorted my offspring as well, and sorted my finance.
    Are we at tipping point yet re Brexit?
    I am a remainer, and the self inflicted damage we are receiving will only grow. Yes I am old, a northerner, time to come out and declare.
    Not tipping point yet.

    Leavers knew there'd be job losses once Brexit happens but they still voted for it.

    I suspect tipping point will be a long post Brexit slump (and the rest of the EU is booming), people will think they know what the causation is.
    The rest of the EU is not booming.

    Recent IMF predictions for EU 2017 GDP growth

    Netherlands: 2.2%
    Germany: 1.8%
    UK: 1.6%
    France: 1.5%
    Italy: 1.1%
    I meant post Brexit, if we're doing badly and they are doing well then some people will think it is the fault of Brexit.

    I fully concede it could be other things, but I think people will blame Brexit.
    And if we grow faster than the Eurozone Alastair will confirm that Leavers were right after all and all is right with the world. Yeah right.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    jayfdee said:

    This makes me count my blessings.

    I'm also glad I was raised by parents who view debt as the eighth deadliest sin.

    Me too. I am relieved that I can ride out Brexit with impunity, and have sorted my offspring as well, and sorted my finance.
    Are we at tipping point yet re Brexit?
    I am a remainer, and the self inflicted damage we are receiving will only grow. Yes I am old, a northerner, time to come out and declare.
    Not tipping point yet.

    Leavers knew there'd be job losses once Brexit happens but they still voted for it.

    I suspect tipping point will be a long post Brexit slump (and the rest of the EU is booming), people will think they know what the causation is.
    The rest of the EU is not booming.

    Recent IMF predictions for EU 2017 GDP growth

    Netherlands: 2.2%
    Germany: 1.8%
    UK: 1.6%
    France: 1.5%
    Italy: 1.1%
    I meant post Brexit, if we're doing badly and they are doing well then some people will think it is the fault of Brexit.

    I fully concede it could be other things, but I think people will blame Brexit.
    Meh. And if we do slump, my bet is most Brits (being naturally patriotic) will BLAME the EU for giving us a terrible deal.

    Sorry old boy, we're out, and human psychology - confirmation bias - will only reinforce that decision. There won't be some amazing British Damascene Conversion - OMG we were wrong, let us back in!!!

    Even if Remoaners are right about the future, their cause is lost for a generation. They should have realised this, and worked for a supersoft Brexit. That was achievable. Probably not now.
    The trouble is the result was close. You are no doubt right that many, the majority, of Leavers will not admit they have made a mistake, but some will, and maybe enough to tip the balance so that in a few years time we are looking at polls that constantly say Brexit Right 46% Wrong 54% or thereabouts.

    Plus, there is a split between generations.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761
    Watching the highlights of last night since work is getting in the way of important things, Vince really deserved a century. Some of his cover drives were reminiscent of Vaughan and praise doesn’t come much higher.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    edited November 2017
    Scott_P said:
    Is that rock still there at Heriot Watt University? A friend is in the admin at the University and I have a horrible feeling he may have been a progenitor. He certainly doesn't talk about it though.

    Edit you have answered my question!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    nielh said:

    Scott_P said:
    Well I am certainly pleased. AS I said on the previous thread I thought it was an idiotic scheme.
    Such schemes are make-work programs for middle class non-jobs and for bureaucrats to piss money up the wall by having piss-ups.
    I suppose you were also against the 2012 Olympics, because that was the ultimate provider of middle class non jobs. But it has ultimately regenerated the most contaminated and polluted part of east London.
    Ask Barcelona and Sydney what hosting the Olympics can do for your city if organised well.
    Don’t ask Atlanta or Rio though.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    Scott_P said:

    Fenman said:

    This is an important gesture by India. This gives the brexiteers the opportunity I'm sure they have been looking for to show their commitment to international trade and to prove they are not the racist scum guardianistas accuse them of being.

    Take Back Control...

    ...by allowing India to dictate immigration policy.

    Yup, can't see any problem with the Brexiteers endorsing this
    If there were a reciprocal agreement to make it easier for UK companies to do business in India, and for Brits to work there, then this Brexiteer wouldn't mind too much. Indians have to be quite highly skilled to get work visas, and increasing the number of those is nothing like allowing any Indian to settle here.
    Our Remainers seem rather more concerned about the prospect of skilled middle class Indian immigrants than of unskilled underclass Eastern European immigrants.

    Perhaps because skilled middle class Indians might actually prove a threat to their jobs and earnings ?
    I’m not concerned, I’ve long been pro-immigration. I think you were only telling me yesterday that it was Eastern European immigration which made things difficult for my demographic.

    I think those who will be concerned if we have to allow more immigration India will be Leavers though - even if the ones on here aren’t.
    Anyone who voted for Brexit hoping for increases in non EU immigration is likely to be extremely disappointed.

    The voters that got Brexit over the line want their country back, they don't want to open it up to Indian lawyers and accountants any more than they want Romanian taxi drivers. Increases in non EU migration is as untenable as uncontrolled EU migration.




  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    nielh said:

    Scott_P said:
    Well I am certainly pleased. AS I said on the previous thread I thought it was an idiotic scheme.
    Such schemes are make-work programs for middle class non-jobs and for bureaucrats to piss money up the wall by having piss-ups.
    I suppose you were also against the 2012 Olympics, because that was the ultimate provider of middle class non jobs. But it has ultimately regenerated the most contaminated and polluted part of east London.


    I think the impact of having the Olympics is overstated. This piece is quite interesting:

    https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21725594-corner-east-london-has-been-rejuvenated-wider-benefits-are-hard-detect-assessing

    I can’t find it, but BBC London News were whinging too about things not improving.

    That’s not to say that staging the games was a bad move, I think they were really good. But I think the legacy stuff is mostly bollocks.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    There is a discernible whiny tone from Brexiteers who apparently didn't realise Brexit means Brexit...

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/933685441500467201
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,761
    calum said:
    Surely even being an MSP for SLAB is better than this?
  • Scott_P said:
    The tent will melt with the sun before Heriot-Watt allows its visitors to see the Salmond Stone.
  • Scott_P said:
    You forget the 'despite Brexit' bit.
  • Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    I don't see any problems with the food chain. We get JIT deliveries from all over the world today, including produce from Africa and the Americas in 36 hours.
  • Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    Well, I may be a pessimist, but I shall be stock piling tinned foods from next summer.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    The DCMS ran a bidding process that was already void at the point they issued the advice below because the candidates were all ineligible according to the current rules. That's a dishonest thing to do.

    In any case the information in the advice is materially false because it claims eligibility depends on the outcome of the exit negotiations and that was the only dependency it noted. Readers would understand that to mean that the programme would go ahead unless decided otherwise.

    FF43 said:


    In my opinion the UK government should do that. The Department of Culture Media and Sport misled candidate cities into bidding and spending money on a programme they weren't eligible for.



    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/578284/Impact_of_the_UK_Decision_to_Leave_the_EU.pdf
    That is indeed slightly misleading advice. But surely any council leader with an IQ over 6 would have thought: Hold on, We're Leaving, this is pointless.

    No?

    If you elect cretins as politicians, expect cretinous decisions.
    Probably, but the DCMS seemed almost certain it would go ahead, based on the outraged tweet from them that Scott has quoted.

  • "serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

    I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

    Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    jayfdee said:

    This makes me count my blessings.

    I'm also glad I was raised by parents who view debt as the eighth deadliest sin.

    Me too. I am relieved that I can ride out Brexit with impunity, and have sorted my offspring as well, and sorted my finance.
    Are we at tipping point yet re Brexit?
    I am a remainer, and the self inflicted damage we are receiving will only grow. Yes I am old, a northerner, time to come out and declare.
    Not tipping point yet.

    Leavers knew there'd be job losses once Brexit happens but they still voted for it.

    I suspect tipping point will be a long post Brexit slump (and the rest of the EU is booming), people will think they know what the causation is.
    The rest of the EU is not booming.

    Recent IMF predictions for EU 2017 GDP growth

    Netherlands: 2.2%
    Germany: 1.8%
    UK: 1.6%
    France: 1.5%
    Italy: 1.1%
    I meant post Brexit, if we're doing badly and they are doing well then some people will think it is the fault of Brexit.

    I fully concede it could be other things, but I think people will blame Brexit.
    Meh. And if we do slump, my bet is most Brits (being naturally patriotic) will BLAME the EU for giving us a terrible deal.

    Sorry old boy, we're out, and human psychology - confirmation bias - will only reinforce that decision. There won't be some amazing British Damascene Conversion - OMG we were wrong, let us back in!!!

    Even if Remoaners are right about the future, their cause is lost for a generation. They should have realised this, and worked for a supersoft Brexit. That was achievable. Probably not now.
    The problem with a super soft Brexit is that we will be a) much worse off than if we remained in the EU and b) does not enable us to take back control of immigration. So, it doesn't solve the problem at all. UKIP just reemerge screaming betrayal and poison politics for another generation.

    Even though I voted remain, and am thoroughly depressed about Brexit, and would rather we went down the path of being an active member of the EU; I think we have to accept the result, leave, take back control of immigration (not a bad idea at all) and try and move forward.

    I think you are right that if we have a slump (very likely), people will just blame it on the EU no doubt led on by our own politicians trying to cover their backs, and we will enter in to this never ending period of diplomatic, political and economic irrellevance. Its going to be really depressing. But if there are fewer immigrants and cars on the road it'll all be worth it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @sturdyAlex: From top table to kids' table:

    "You can't bid for European Capital of Culture."
    "BUT WHY?"
    "Because you wouldn't qualify under the rules."
    "BUT WHY?"
    "You won't be paying into the programme by then."
    "BUT WHY?"
    "You need to be in the EU, the EEA or a Candidate State."
    "BUT WHY?"
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    Well, I may be a pessimist, but I shall be stock piling tinned foods from next summer.
    You're the crappiest panic buyer ever.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    It took eurosceptics 40 years to go from being a mad tiny cult (Alan Sked's UKIP) to winning a Brexit referendum. I grant that politics is more fluid now but I fail to see how British politics could produce an election winning party with a rejoin-the-EU manifesto within, say, 20 years.

    Empty supermarket shelves would do it in a month
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited November 2017
    This whole capital of culture saga is pathetic in every possible respect. Not only were the council leaders who submitted bids fools, but what's more ridiculous is the idea that wasting public money to create a few 'arts' non-jobs is worth getting excited about.
  • Everton 1 Atalanta 5
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093

    Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    Disruption like the recent Great Brexit Marmite Shortage of 13 October 2016, disruption like Ukraine in 1932, or disruption as in we stop buying EU crops at CAP prices and start buying non-EU goods at world prices?
  • Evening all. Sat outside the count at the Parkfield and Oxbridge by-election
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543

    Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    Which is kind of why I don't put a high probability of Canada (which won't be plus by the way) happening. The longer that transition goes on, the less likely we will get there. Equally if we crash out of the transition before agreeing the deal we won't wait around. Finally, I think people will get a lot more realistic about our limited options and will be minded to compromise with the EU, Remainers, the Irish, the Scots. The EU, or at least the EEA, is the easy option.
  • DavidL said:

    Only this First Minister could be handed an extra £2bn and still sound like somebody has stolen her scone,” she [Ruth Davidson] said.

    Reader, steel yourself. What follows is the dumbest, most desperate pivot yet recorded in the annals of devolution. And that includes Kez’s TV career.

    The FM replied: “If I was a Tory these days, I wouldn’t be standing up in Parliament and talking about scones, given the number of Scottish families who are being forced to food banks.”

    And if I was FM I wouldn’t use food banks to score ridiculous points whenever an opponent mentioned something edible.

    “How dare you say I’ve got a chip on my shoulder… Put away that pie chart… Don’t ever call me Ms Sturgeon... when there are people using food banks.”

    The chamber broke down in contemptuous laughter.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15680750.FMQs_sketch__Scone_of_Destiny/

    Blimey, the Herald is changing its tune isn’t it?
    Eh? Are you suggesting that The Herald was at some point pro SNP?

    I'm beginning to suspect your claims to live in Scotland are an elaborate hoax.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    I have just come across a photograph of Neville Chamberlain leaving the Treasury to present his April 1934 Budget. I was struck that he was wearing a Top Hat - and wondered when that tradition was abandoned.

    Probably around the same time that morals fell through the floor, what?
    Possibly a little earlier than that - I don't think Stafford Cripps wore a Top Hat in the late 1940s though RA Butler may have restored the practice in the early to mid- 1950s. If a recent Chancellor had chosen to do that , I wonder whether it would have attracted comment.
    Unspoofable.
    I suppose that at the end of the day it would be a matter for the individual in that some people like wearing hats and are drawn to formality etc.I doubt that it would be seen as anything more than mildly eccentric - with perhaps a touch of exhibitionism.
    Make the Moggster Chancellor and we'll be seeing a comeback for the Topper!
    Hope so.
  • "serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

    I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

    Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

    Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    I meant post Brexit, if we're doing badly and they are doing well then some people will think it is the fault of Brexit.
    I fully concede it could be other things, but I think people will blame Brexit.

    I shall be blaming the Conservatives, including the incompetent Cameron and Osborne. And Corbyn-Labour for not doing more to stop the whole nonsensical process.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    FF43 said:

    Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    Which is kind of why I don't put a high probability of Canada (which won't be plus by the way) happening. The longer that transition goes on, the less likely we will get there. Equally if we crash out of the transition before agreeing the deal we won't wait around. Finally, I think people will get a lot more realistic about our limited options and will be minded to compromise with the EU, Remainers, the Irish, the Scots. The EU, or at least the EEA, is the easy option.
    Realistic = what you want. How convenient!

  • If there were a reciprocal agreement to make it easier for UK companies to do business in India, and for Brits to work there, then this Brexiteer wouldn't mind too much. Indians have to be quite highly skilled to get work visas, and increasing the number of those is nothing like allowing any Indian to settle here.

    Our Remainers seem rather more concerned about the prospect of skilled middle class Indian immigrants than of unskilled underclass Eastern European immigrants.

    Perhaps because skilled middle class Indians might actually prove a threat to their jobs and earnings ?
    I’m not concerned, I’ve long been pro-immigration. I think you were only telling me yesterday that it was Eastern European immigration which made things difficult for my demographic.

    I think those who will be concerned if we have to allow FoM with India will be Leavers though - even if the ones on here aren’t.
    People tend to view things on whether they are beneficial or detimental to them personally - its human nature.

    If we'd had immigration restricted to middle class professionals there would have been a lot less concern in working class areas but howls of outrage from Tarquin and Jemima's parents when their little darlings weren't able to get graduate jobs because some immigrant was willing to do it cheaper and better.

    Please forgive the AB sterotyping.
    Has immigration been restricted to only working class professions though? I doubt that white collar jobs haven’t been effected by immigration to some extent or another.

    I also think people’s concerns about immigration go beyond economic reasons.
    Take a look at where the highest proportions of EU immigrants are, not in nice middle class areas I suspect. Rural Lincolnshire for example is not an affluent area.

    And while there are certainly social aspects to immigration again the negative effects of them have been concentrated in working class communities - not many beds in sheds or dozen to a flat stories in the posh parts of town.

    If there was then the upset would more than match that in the poorer districts. After all house prices might be affected :wink:

    People who are outraged at the possibility of a McDonalds, a Starbucks or even a Waterstones opening in their area would have plenty to say if the 'wrong' type of people moved there.

    After all the friction between an upstart working class millionaire and the posh but poor has been a staple of drama from Trimalchio's Feast to Brookside Close.

    I do have an idea for a TV program - get a house in somewhere impeccably liberal, middle class and Remainy, fill it full of East European Roma and then record the reactions of the locals.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    The fundamental problem seems to be that people like Liam Fox don't appear to have even a basic understanding of negotiating what a trade deal actually involves. They just think that we can find a way of doing it, making it up as we go along, disregarding the advice from doubters and experts along the way.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    SeanT said:

    Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    Brexit is gonna HURT. Like having a BABY. Anyone who thought otherwise is a fool. Who didn't read my Spectator piece.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-just-like-baby/
    I read your piece. Stripping away all the arguments and rhetoric to get to the essential, Brexit is a disconnection. That's the opposite of having a baby.

    You were onto something with Brexit being the Reformation while the EU is the Catholic Church however.
  • Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    It took eurosceptics 40 years to go from being a mad tiny cult (Alan Sked's UKIP) to winning a Brexit referendum. I grant that politics is more fluid now but I fail to see how British politics could produce an election winning party with a rejoin-the-EU manifesto within, say, 20 years.

    Empty supermarket shelves would do it in a month
    You obviously don't understand international trade.
  • "serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

    I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

    Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

    Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.
    and by week 4?
  • SeanT said:

    Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    Brexit is gonna HURT. Like having a BABY. Anyone who thought otherwise is a fool. Who didn't read my Spectator piece.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-just-like-baby/
    I have a 'someone has to shamelessly punt their own piece at least 30 times before I read it' rule.

    Almost there.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,764

    "serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

    I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

    Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

    Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.
    As I said, you need to buy an air rifle, so you can shoot game. And keep livestock in your back garden.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    Everton 1 Atalanta 5

    Oh do stop it.
  • Pong said:

    Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    Well, I may be a pessimist, but I shall be stock piling tinned foods from next summer.
    You're the crappiest panic buyer ever.
    You think I should start earlier?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    RoyalBlue said:

    FF43 said:

    Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    Which is kind of why I don't put a high probability of Canada (which won't be plus by the way) happening. The longer that transition goes on, the less likely we will get there. Equally if we crash out of the transition before agreeing the deal we won't wait around. Finally, I think people will get a lot more realistic about our limited options and will be minded to compromise with the EU, Remainers, the Irish, the Scots. The EU, or at least the EEA, is the easy option.
    Realistic = what you want. How convenient!
    You misjudge me. I am interested in outcomes. I am perfectly comfortable with my prejudices.

    In any case I think EEA is a nonsense. I happen to also think that's where we will end up.
  • "serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

    I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

    Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

    Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.
    I don’t need this kind of stress.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Brexit will be like the millennium bug - a lot of wailing over nothing. But with £350m a week compensation.
  • dixiedean said:

    Everton 1 Atalanta 5

    Oh do stop it.
    So sorry Dixie - I really am
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Interesting Horizon on BBC2 at the moment about decision making.

    Yes fascinating.
    Essentially if you feel you are doing OK you play safe.
    If you feel you are losing you behave recklessly.

    GE 2017?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    dixiedean said:

    Everton 1 Atalanta 5

    Oh do stop it.
    So sorry Dixie - I really am
    Not as sorry as me!
    But cheers anyway for your concern.
  • "serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

    I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

    Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

    Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.
    Don't confuse lobbying with predictions. Our food supplies do not depend on a free-trade agreement with the European Union.

    The worst that could happen - if, for instance, there was zero notice of no deal - is that this could require some radical changes to supermarket's existing supply and business arrangements that might cause short-term disruption.

    It would also be a big opportunity for others.
  • TGOHF said:

    Brexit will be like the millennium bug - a lot of wailing over nothing. But with £350m a week compensation.

    We have been through this canard on PB. There was only not a problem because of years of code checking in preparation.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Brexit will be like the millennium bug - a lot of wailing over nothing.

    Years of planning and effort.

    Brexit is NOTHING like Y2K
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    FF43 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    FF43 said:

    Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    Which is kind of why I don't put a high probability of Canada (which won't be plus by the way) happening. The longer that transition goes on, the less likely we will get there. Equally if we crash out of the transition before agreeing the deal we won't wait around. Finally, I think people will get a lot more realistic about our limited options and will be minded to compromise with the EU, Remainers, the Irish, the Scots. The EU, or at least the EEA, is the easy option.
    Realistic = what you want. How convenient!
    You misjudge me. I am interested in outcomes. I am perfectly comfortable with my prejudices.

    In any case I think EEA is a nonsense. I happen to also think that's where we will end up.
    You think it's a nonsense. Why?

    1) we stay in the Single Market, so trade disruption will be minimal compared to other conceivable Brexits

    2) we're out of the CAP

    3) we're out of the CFP

    4) we can legally discriminate between British citizens and all other nationalities e.g. for welfare purposes

    5) we will have our own seat in forums like the WTO

    It's not exactly what I want, but it's better than the status quo.
  • Golly, reading this thread is upsetting. I did not realise when I voted for Brexit that I was voting for my wife and son to go hungry.
  • @another_richard I thought we were talking about immigration more generally (as opposed to just EU immigration?) Yes, I’m sure low skilled EU immigration predominately affects working class areas, but we know that we do get skilled immigration (even if it has decreased a bit in recent years) from non-EU countries, such as the NHS. Clearly, then middle class professions are to some degree being impacted by immigration.

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Golly, reading this thread is upsetting. I did not realise when I voted for Brexit that I was voting for my wife and son to go hungry.

    Don't worry. Think of all the young Remainer flesh to feast on.
  • Evening all. Sat outside the count at the Parkfield and Oxbridge by-election

    Living the dream.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Brexit will be like the millennium bug - a lot of wailing over nothing.

    Years of planning and effort.

    Brexit is NOTHING like Y2K
    The effect will be the same most people outside the bubble won’t notice any difference.

    Just the shrieking ninnys who worry about European cities of culture.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    SeanT said:

    nielh said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    jayfdee said:

    This makes me count my blessings.

    I'm also glad I was raised by parents who view debt as the eighth deadliest sin.

    .
    people will think they know what the causation is.
    The rest of the EU is not booming.

    Recent IMF predictions for EU 2017 GDP growth

    Netherlands: 2.2%
    Germany: 1.8%
    UK: 1.6%
    France: 1.5%
    Italy: 1.1%
    I meant post Brexit, if we're doing badly and they are doing well then some people will think it is the fault of Brexit.

    I fully concede it could be other things, but I think people will blame Brexit.
    Meh. And if we do slump, my bet is most Brits (being naturally patriotic) will BLAME the EU for giving us a terrible deal.

    Sorry old boy, we're out, and human psychology - confirmation bias - will only reinforce that decision. There won't be some amazing British Damascene Conversion - OMG we were wrong, let us back in!!!

    Even if Remoaners are right about the future, their cause is lost for a generation. They should have realised this, and worked for a supersoft Brexit. That was achievable. Probably not now.
    The problem w cars on the road it'll all be worth it.
    Much of what you say is true. But it is true of the entire West, which is in strategic retreat. We don't want to run the world any more, we don't want any more Iraqs, we don't give a fuck. We don't want to be number 1, or even number 3. Who cares. And we've REALLY had enough Muslim immigration, thanks very much. We like secular, mildly Christian liberalism. It's ours, we're proud of it, we like our lifestyles, please don't invite 1m Syrians who want to destroy it, danke.

    These sentiments are gonna drive Western politics for the next 10-20 years, and maybe way beyond. They got Trump elected.

    Germany has all this waiting, btw, the recent advance of the AFD is just the early sign.
    I think that's true, but it doesn't bode well for our long term future. In about 15 years we've gone from the idea that the world is following our example and moving towards the embrace of free markets and liberal democracy, to the (probably flawed) idea that we can build a fortress around ourselves and maintain our own living standards whilst not investing in our army etc, and whilst surrounded by totalitarian regimes at a time when there is increasing competition for resources. If I'm right were really fucked.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited November 2017

    Golly, reading this thread is upsetting. I did not realise when I voted for Brexit that I was voting for my wife and son to go hungry.

    There can be nothing closer to a nuclear holocaust than leaving a trading cartel. Think zombie apocalypse with an AIDS pandemic, global warming and the rise of the machines all rolled into one - and no MEPs to save us.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    The effect will be the same most people outside the bubble won’t notice any difference.

    No, and no
  • Golly, reading this thread is upsetting. I did not realise when I voted for Brexit that I was voting for my wife and son to go hungry.

    I wouldn't take it too seriously.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Everton 1 Atalanta 5

    Oh do stop it.
    So sorry Dixie - I really am
    Not as sorry as me!
    But cheers anyway for your concern.
    They need a new manager fast - I have had a soft spot for Everton for years, indeed when Utd were relegated all those years ago I went to Goodison from time to time.

    But my greatest memory of Goodidon is going to the World Cup tie with Brazil v Portugal on the 19th July 1966 and seeing Pele and Eusebio on the same pitch v each other
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    The effect will be the same most people outside the bubble won’t notice any difference.

    No, and no
    Will it be as catastrophic as the total collapse of society that happened just as you predicted in the days after the referendum ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Will it be as catastrophic as the total collapse of society that happened just as you predicted in the days after the referendum ?

    Link?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    "serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

    I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

    Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

    Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.
    I don’t need this kind of stress.
    I think it is more likely that prices go up as opposed to food shortages.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    And when the AIDS ridden zombies come for us post Brexit - we will have to do it without Junker and Schultz fighting in our corner. It’s a chilling thought.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    edited November 2017
    RoyalBlue said:


    You think it's a nonsense. Why?

    1) we stay in the Single Market, so trade disruption will be minimal compared to other conceivable Brexits

    2) we're out of the CAP

    3) we're out of the CFP

    4) we can legally discriminate between British citizens and all other nationalities e.g. for welfare purposes

    5) we will have our own seat in forums like the WTO

    It's not exactly what I want, but it's better than the status quo.

    Why do I think the EEA is nonsense? Because it gives us a large part, but by no means all, of the benefits of the EU with obligations that are almost the same. But it will be on a take it or leave it, do as we tell you, basis. In that case, why not take all the benefits and influence of EU membership and have a real say in what happens to you?

  • Golly, reading this thread is upsetting. I did not realise when I voted for Brexit that I was voting for my wife and son to go hungry.

    Starvation, planes grounded, deep recession, collapsed pound, food banks for all, and third world status at the very least according to the remain camp
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will it be as catastrophic as the total collapse of society that happened just as you predicted in the days after the referendum ?

    Link?
    Would be to one of your retweets of some Euro funded think tank/journos.
  • nielh said:

    "serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

    I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

    Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

    Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.
    I don’t need this kind of stress.
    I think it is more likely that prices go up as opposed to food shortages.
    Yeah, I can see that happening. Slightly reassuring.
  • "serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

    I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

    Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

    Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.
    Don't confuse lobbying with predictions. Our food supplies do not depend on a free-trade agreement with the European Union.

    The worst that could happen - if, for instance, there was zero notice of no deal - is that this could require some radical changes to supermarket's existing supply and business arrangements that might cause short-term disruption.

    It would also be a big opportunity for others.
    So the greenhouses of Spain and Holland will still be able to send fresh produce on a just-in-time supply chain basis without any hinderance from trade issues or customs hold ups or transactions costs?

    You sure about that?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited November 2017
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Talked today to someone close to (but not actually part of) the British side of the Brexit talks: he expects a December agreement to proceed, but thinks Britain is disastrously unprepared for the kind of Canada+ agreement that we seem to be seeking, to the point that serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected. He thinks very long transition period (5 years plus) is essential.

    He's a trade technician, not a politician, with no detectable views on Brexit per se. And technicians tend to overestimate the importance of technical arrangement. But nonetheless...hmm.

    Brexit is gonna HURT. Like having a BABY. Anyone who thought otherwise is a fool. Who didn't read my Spectator piece.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-just-like-baby/
    I have a 'someone has to shamelessly punt their own piece at least 30 times before I read it' rule.

    Almost there.
    Dude, I'm going to shamelessly quote this piece maybe 10,000 times before Brexit is done. Because I was precisely and uncannily right. And I do like to gloat.
    I'm quite pleased with how this has aged, too:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/16/mortimer-with-a-tip-for-the-more-adventurous-gamblers/

    Although my tip on an early election was a bit premature.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    nielh said:

    "serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

    I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

    Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

    Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.
    I don’t need this kind of stress.
    I think it is more likely that prices go up as opposed to food shortages.
    Yeah, I can see that happening. Slightly reassuring.
    Of course, it will all be worth it. We're all in it together.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    nielh said:

    "serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

    I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

    Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

    Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.
    I don’t need this kind of stress.
    I think it is more likely that prices go up as opposed to food shortages.
    The people of Wisbech will be eternally grateful.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Would be to one of your retweets of some Euro funded think tank/journos.

    So you have no link to your made up bullshit.

    Noted...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    "serious disruptions to the food chain are to be expected."

    I strongly suspect if this comes to pass then Leave voters will suddenly be thinner on the ground and Boris and Gove and the Tory right will be politically slaughtered.

    Will nobody other than Ken Clarke call time on this madness?

    Shortages so bad that "A shopping trolley will be thrown through a window" by the end of week 1 is the prediction of a senior industry representative.
    Don't confuse lobbying with predictions. Our food supplies do not depend on a free-trade agreement with the European Union.

    The worst that could happen - if, for instance, there was zero notice of no deal - is that this could require some radical changes to supermarket's existing supply and business arrangements that might cause short-term disruption.

    It would also be a big opportunity for others.
    So the greenhouses of Spain and Holland will still be able to send fresh produce on a just-in-time supply chain basis without any hinderance from trade issues or customs hold ups or transactions costs?

    You sure about that?
    Which of the two governments do you think will be keener to cause a delay - Spain or the Uk ?
  • RoyalBlue said:

    This whole capital of culture saga is pathetic in every possible respect. Not only were the council leaders who submitted bids fools, but what's more ridiculous is the idea that wasting public money to create a few 'arts' non-jobs is worth getting excited about.

    I'm a bit take it or leave it.

    The objective was clearly to select a "city" in a member state in turn, each year, in order to progressively build a common European (read: EU) identity as an aide federalism.

    But, that was rather academic in the UK. Instead, I think it was a way of regional cities getting their moment in the spotlight - a bit like hosting a European or World championship - and I don't see the EU "owning" European culture, anymore than they own its sport, music or cuisine.

    My main issue is the pettiness and vindictiveness of the decision.
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